Last updated: 9:20 PM

8:31 PM

Like most of you (I'm assuming), I awoke Sunday morning with an incredible headache and no memory of anything that happened during the previous 214 days. Did the U.S. go to war with Canada? Did they invent flying cars? Did Spielberg finally produce I, Ernie (the Rubin Brothers' much-hyped screenplay)? Was I published in the New York Times? Who can say?

But today, in the throes of this amnesiac terror, I was hit by a comforting thought: no matter what crazy things happened between October 28 and May 30, it's still only June now, and that means I have plenty of sweet, headache-free Indians baseball to look forward to. Yes, the Indians will set us free—I'm talking about the team that was best in the world twice in the last four seasons (according to 3rd-order winning percentage). I'm talking about the team whose 2008 season, while hugely disappointing, still featured the Majors' 6th-best record, post-All Star break. I'm talking about the team with the reigning Cy Young winner; the team with the Four Essential S's of Success (Sizemore, Slider, Shapiro, Stadium Mustard); the team that always rocks in odd-numbered years. In short, if ever it was Tribe time, it's Tribe time now.

The one problem is that we're already more than two months into the season, and it's only now that I'm finally capable of picking up an Indians box score. I have absolutely no idea how the Indians have done in their first 53 games. I mean, they could be in first place by 15 games, or they could be in first place by a mere 5 games. The range of possibilities is endless!

So here's my idea: I'm going to let you, dear reader, join me on my journey of discovery. I'm actually going to liveblog my checking the baseball standings for the first time in 2009. We've done precious little liveblogging in the history of this site, because liveblogging is asinine and pointless, but hey, I just know that this is going to make for riveting drama! Are you ready?

8:32 PM

What the WHAT?!

8:39 PM

The internet is broken or something, because apparently, the Indians are in last place. And they have the 4th-worst record in the Majors. The Indians! I checked like 12 different websites. What the heck happened?

8:42 PM

Hmm, maybe the Indians' record is not a good reflection of their performance so far. Let's check Baseball Prospectus's Adjusted Standings. Let's see... the Indians' 3rd-order winning percentage is .513, which is quite a bit higher than their actual winning percentage (.415). It ranks them 3rd in the division, and 12th in the Majors.

This could indicate that the Indians have been really unlucky (maybe), or that they've had a particularly difficult schedule so far (yeah, let's go with that). The difference between 2nd-order and 3rd-order winning percentage is essentially a strength-of-schedule adjustment, and in fact, when you go from 2nd-order to 3rd, the Indians get the biggest boost.

Still, that can't be the only reason, can it? It seems like this happens to the Indians almost every year (since 2005, anyway). I don't know how long this pattern (of underperforming their "adjusted" winning percentages) has to continue before I'll be convinced that it's symptomatic of some underlying, franchise-specific cause, but I am curious. That will have to be a topic for its own post sometime soon.

8:55 PM

Well, it looks like the offense has been solid. The Indians rank 8th in the Majors, having scored 5.21 points per 100 possessions—er, runs per game. And hey, check out Victor Martinez, who's 13th in the Majors with a VORP of 25.0. Next among Indians hitters is Shin-Soo Choo at 17.9, then Asdrubal Cabrera at 14.5, and... wait a minute? Where's Sizemore?

8:57 PM

Grady's VORP is 0.0! He's been replacement level, hitting just .223/.309/.417. That's... shocking. And, what's this? He went on the freaking disabled list not two days ago? Yikes. Maybe it's for the best.

9:00 PM

Super yikes. Sizemore's not the only one on the DL. The Indians have placed 432 players there, including Travis Hafner, Aaron Laffey, Anthony Reyes, Scott Lewis, Rafael Betancourt, Joe Smith (Joe... Smith? Whoa, for a second I thought my memories were coming back to me; it was like a glimmer of recognition; then suddenly, it was gone), and Jake Westbrook. In fact, apparently, since I started writing this stupid post, another Indian has hit the DL, that being the surprisingly on-fire Asdrubal Cabrera. Terrific, just terrific.

9:09 PM

Let's check some pitching stats now...

Well, there's your problem! The Tribe ranks just 28th (that's 3rd-worst) in run prevention, allowing 5.53 per game. So whose fault is it? Certainly not Cliff Lee, who's making a decent case that his amazing 2008 was no fluke: Lee ranks 7th in the Majors with a 2.6 SNLVAR (which is like SNVA but adjusted for quality of batters faced, and based on replacement level, not league average... you can just think of it as "he's been worth 2.6 wins" if that helps) and 6th in pitching VORP (24.4). Cliff has actually been the unluckiest pitcher in baseball, meaning he's either had no run support, been let down by his bullpen, or both.

After Lee, you've got Carl Pavano (wait, huh?) pitching surprisingly well for Carl Pavano (1.2 SNLVAR, 6.1 VORP), and not much else to cheer about. Okay, so once again, the question is, whose fault is it? Well, among starters, Fausto Carmona's been about as bad as I might be willing to imagine (-8.1 VORP), but the real problem appears to be in the bullpen, where almost no one has been above replacement level, and those that have are either injured or not getting any innings. I don't feel like running through the whole list; sufficed to say that it includes about 10 guys not named Betancourt, Herges, Aquino, or Wood—not to suggest that those four have been outstanding or anything, either.

9:20 PM

Gee, I feel better. Don't you?

Go, uh... Browns?