Oh, hello, didn't see you there. I was just previewing this Browns game. Care to join me?

En tant que toujours, the stats in this preview are taken from Football Outsiders; click here to read about how DVOA works.

Browns offense vs. Texans defense:

           CLE offense  HOU defense
total DVOA    -0.5%        26.9%
passing       -2.3%        28.6%
rushing        1.4%        25.4%

The Browns offense took another positive step last week, and now ranks 22nd (22nd passing, 18th running). So far, Brady Quinn's passes (4.1% DVOA) have been more efficient than Derek Anderson's were (-7.0%). Meanwhile, not a single Browns WR or TE has a receiving DVOA above average, whereas not a single Browns RB has a receiving DVOA below average. Check out this pass-catchin' posse and tell me if you detect a pattern:

player    pos  passes  rec. DVOA
Harrison   RB    11      59.2%
Lewis      RB    20      41.5%
Vickers    FB     8      32.3%
Wright     RB    14       8.8%
Heiden     TE    27      -4.1%
Winslow    TE    73      -5.9%
Edwards    WR    86     -19.3%
Cribbs     WR     7     -21.4%
Stallworth WR    24     -40.7%
Steptoe    WR    27     -42.7%

The Houston defense, it should be pointed out, sucks. They rank 30th overall; 27th against the pass and 32nd against the run. Yes, they're the worst run defense in football, and they're also very consistent in their suckiness (they rank 2nd in defensive variance, with 2.2%) but the best news—and the reason I showed you that table of individual Browns receiving DVOAs—is that Houston ranks dead last in defending passes to RBs (47.0%). Now I say the Browns better try to exploit this, dagnabbit. Otherwise, why am I even writing these previews? Advantage: Browns

Texans offense vs. Browns defense:

           HOU offense  CLE defense
total DVOA     8.9%        13.1%
passing       11.1%        19.6%
rushing        6.2%         7.6%

A mixed performance in Buffalo has the Browns defense ranked 24th in DVOA, up one spot from last week. They rank 22nd against the pass and 23rd against the run. And they won't have it so easy this week, as the Texans rank 12th in offensive DVOA; 15th passing and 8th rushing. Quarterback Matt Schaub is very efficient, holding the 4th-highest completion percentage (68.8%) among qualified QBs. A large portion of his passes are going to go to WR Andre Johnson, who has been targeted 107 times, the 2nd-most of any player in the NFL. But Johnson, with his receiving DVOA of 18.1% (to rank 13th among qualified WRs) isn't even the most efficient pass catcher on the team. WR Ken Walter (21.6%, targeted 61 times) and TE Owen Daniels (20.4%, targeted 67 times) are equally dangerous. Also, here's an interesting fact from Football Outsiders' weekly Numbers Crunching column:

Houston throws up the middle 33 percent of the time, more often than any other team. Cleveland's defense faces passes up the middle 31 percent of the time, more often than any other defense in the AFC.

That's the kind of thing the Browns defensive game planners are supposed to know (from studying game film, if not from looking at numbers—that would be too much to ask). But we'll see. Advantage: Texans

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns    Texans
total DVOA                6.2%      3.9%
FG kicking                7.8       4.3
CLE kickoff vs. HOU KR   -3.3      -6.9
CLE KR vs. HOU kickoff   10.1       6.6
CLE punt vs. HOU PR       6.4      11.3
CLE PR vs. HOU punt       2.0      -1.2

The Browns took a big hit in this week's special teams rankings. They now rank just 3rd in overall special teams DVOA, and their legendary kick return team now ranks just 4th. Meanwhile, the kickoff team took the biggest plunge; they now rank just 24th. The field goal kicking of Le Fils d'Awesome continues to impress; the Browns have risen to 2nd in that category. Also, the punt team has risen to 4th. Meanwhile, the Texans are quite solid on special teams (5th overall), all thanks to a 2nd-ranked punt return team and a tied-for-3rd kickoff team; of course, those two units will have to face a pair of the Browns' strongest units. Advantage: Browns

The Browns edge the Texans in overall team DVOA (-7.4% to -14.1%) and in overall weighted DVOA (-4.5% to -12.5%). That plus the home field advantage means the Browns should rightly be expected to prevail in this one. Enjoy, everybody!