Anyone who thinks that a preview should be published before the series actually starts obviously doesn't write for this blog. Though, in light of the fact that Game 1 is over and done and that the first round is a mere formality anyway, I'm going to keep this brief. If you'd like something a bit more satisfying about the Cavaliers' play, read Corey's "Regular Season in Review."

Unlike previous seasons, I'll be covering the Four Factors alone and dispensing with the starting lineup analysis. Why? Because starter-on-starter is kind of a weak thing to examine, in the first place, and I was never happy with the conclusions I'd drawn from it in the past. If you're new to APBRmetrics (which I guess is what everyone is calling it now, even though it sounds stupid) and wondering what the Four Factors are, here's a concise explanation on basketball-reference.com. Onward and upward!

When the Cavs are on offense

• Shooting

        eFG%  Rank
  Us    .494    26
  Them  .514    27

  When both teams suck like this, my instinct is to think that the Wizards will win out and the Cavaliers will continue to shoot poorly. It's not like the Cavs have been shooting this way because of the great defenses they've faced night after night. Really any group of five guys is enough to keep the Cavaliers under a .500 eFG%.
  
  
• Turnovers

        TO-r  Rank
  Us    .156    14
  Them  .157    11

  Again, it's pretty close. I'm not really sure if there's an advantage to be had.
  
  
• Offensive rebounding

       OReb%  Rank
  Us    .304     2
  Them  .272    20

  Now there's your advantage. For three post-seasons now, I've been writing about how Ilgauskas, Varejão, and Gooden are such an underrated strength of the team. Now they've switched Gooden for Ben Wallace and Joe Smith, which doesn't change much net. Brendan Haywood and Antawn Jamison are the only Wizards worth caring about on the boards, and even then, only Haywood should be able to contend with the height the Cavs have.
  
  
• Getting to the foul line

       FT/FG  Rank
  Us    .220    20
  Them  .217    12

  I expect the Cavaliers to beat an averagely-beaten path to the foul line.

The Cavs' offense obviously has its problems (107.5 offensive efficiency, 19th in the league). Fortunately, the Wizards' defense is nothing to brag about either (111.2, 22nd). It's like the match of two below-average-but-not-terrible titans.

When the Cavs are on defense

• Shooting

        eFG%  Rank
  Us    .494    10
  Them  .514    19

  The Cavaliers haven't shown the defensive might they've had in previous seasons, but fortunately the Wizards offense has lost some efficiency, too. Basically, they're a team of chuckers.
  
  
• Turnovers

        TO-r  Rank
  Us    .149    20
  Them  .147     8

  You may notice the disparity in rank, but also look at how small the difference between the two turnover rates actually is. A change of .002 in TO-r is like one turnover every four games. Again, I don't think there's any advantage here.
  
  
• Offensive rebounding

       OReb%  Rank
  Us    .241     2
  Them  .289     8

  Despite their lack of height, the Wizards attack the offensive boards a good deal. The Cavs will need to make sure to box out or protect the basket or whatever and avoid giving up free possessions. The Wizards really shouldn't get second chances against the Cavs.
  
  
• Getting to the foul line

       FT/FG  Rank
  Us    .240    18
  Them  .233    11

  The Cavaliers can't afford to get in foul trouble, since Mike Brown doesn't actually trust most of the bench and some starters. Also the big men often get foul-happy. It might not be a bad idea to encourage Washington to shoot more threes than normal—they are below league average from outside, after all.

The Wizards' offense has been decent (110.4, 12th) and so has the Cavs' defense (108.0, 11th). But the teams that accumulated these stats are pretty different than the ones we'll be watching in the upcoming weeks. Basically, due to the Cavs' mid-season blockbuster and the various, wide-ranging injuries affecting both teams, you have to take even these season-long statistics with a measure of skepticism. Is it bad that it's only the first round and I'm already mailing it in? I vote "indifferent."

And now for your Wizards highlight of the season…



I like to view that allegorically, with the Cavaliers represented by Danny Granger, no doubt.