Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times

for the Cleveland sports fan

Sunday, March 23, 2008

Winter Haven is a Winter Haven

by Alex

Spring Training statistics are almost completely useless. Though in sabermetric circles, the same study is trot out every March: John Dewan found that "a hitter with a positive difference between their Spring Training slugging percentage and their lifetime slugging percentage of .200 or more alerts us to a step forward in the coming season." Technically speaking, there's a positive correlation there.

You can see where I'm going. Without further ado, here are the Indians (with thirty or more at bats) whose current Spring Training slugging percentage exceed his career percentage by more than two hundred points.
Player          AB   SLG   Car  Diff
Jason Michaels 34 .676 .418 .258
Andy Gonzalez 31 .677 .249 .428
Unfortunately, it looks as though Gonzalez won't break with the big league club at the end of the month. He'll have to squander his super breakout in Buffalo. As for Michaels, returned to his natural state as a platoon outfielder, it's reasonable to expect better things of him in 2008. His spring has bode well so far.

There were actually a couple other interesting players who didn't qualify for the first list, either for lack of at bats or a too-small difference in slugging percentages.
Player          AB    SLG   Car  Diff
Andy Marte 41 .537 .356 .181
Grady Sizemore 26 1.115 .488 .627
Holy crap, look at Grady Sizemore! If I were a betting man, I'd bet everything I own on Sizemore winning the M.V.P.; it's a mortal lock. Seriously though, that's pretty amazing. Marte is having a nice spring himself, too. Though the progression of comments on his PECOTA card makes me want to cry, that's something to hang his hat on.

So, in conclusion, Jason Michaels: meh, but maybe better. And Grady Sizemore? YES! YES! YES!

Posted at 12:11 AM

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