Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times

for the Cleveland sports fan

Saturday, March 1, 2008

George Is Gettin' Upset!

by Alex

In the transaction flurry following the start of the N.F.L. free agent period, the Browns have made three moves: resigning Derek Anderson, trading for Corey Williams, and trading for Shaun Rogers. I'm going to write about the last of these. For the sake of exposition, the Lions were originally going to trade Rogers to the Bengals for a third- and fifth-round pick. The league put the kibosh on that deal due to"language issues in the trade agreement," according to ESPN.com. So, the Browns swooped in, offering a third-rounder and Leigh Bodden for Rogers. The Lions quickly accepted and that's where we are now.

The Bengals' third-round pick is the seventy-seventh overall, for a standard draft value of 205. The Bengals' fifth-round pick is the one-hundred-forty-first, for a value of 35.5. The Browns' third-round pick is the eighty-seventh overall, valued at 155. So, from the Lions' perspective, they would've received 240.5 points in draft value from the Bengals and 155 and Leigh Bodden from the Browns. That they were willing to make both trades suggests that Leigh Bodden was valued at 85.5 points (the difference between 240.5 and 155), or an early-fourth-rounder.

Excuse me? Leigh Bodden is worth an early-fourth-round pick? What the hell is this? Regular readers should know that Corey and I have been Passengers #1 and #1A of the Leigh Bodden Bandwagon since 2004. And it's not just us. For example, here's a quote from Pro Football Prospectus 2007:
At Pro Football Prospectus, we absolutely love Leigh Bodden. Cleveland's DVOA against number-one receivers indicates that he's great. Our game charting numbers indicate that he's great. Our own subjective viewings of the Browns indicate that he's great.
It's hard to explain the Browns valuing a player so loved by the leading football authority on the web as a fourth-round pick. Tony Grossi writes that they gave up on "a rags-to-riches player who some in the organization felt slipped measurably last season." If that's the case, the Browns made a terribly stupid decision. They had a player who was widely considered one of the best in the league. He's young; he's affordable. Then he had a bad season—not terrible—but worse than they'd expected. Should they then trade him, when his value is at it's lowest? Of course not!

It's possible the Browns have an insight that Bodden has become irrevocably worse and is actually worth only a fourth-rounder now. I find that highly implausible, considering that he played pretty well at the end of the season. There can't be some injury the Browns are hiding—that'd be trading in bad faith. And if Bodden stunk on the field last season, surely the Lions' scouts would've kept the team from trading for him.

All this is pretty one-sided, though. P.F.P. has nice things to say about Shaun Rogers too, but they're not even close to the praise that rains upon Bodden. Rogers is very good and fills a serious need for the Browns, but doesn't the trade now make cornerback a need, too? Would you be willing to hand a starting job to Brandon McDonald with such a small body of work? Frankly, I don't think Rogers is in as high a percentile of defensive linemen that Bodden is in of defensive backs. The Lions probably got the better player. Though, even if that's not the case, the Browns got fleeced.

Posted at 3:36 PM

12 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said…
It seems to me that you are over-reacting here. I'm not disputing what you say about Bodden, but sometimes you make these moves because your need elsewhere is perceived to be more significant, or worth it. Also, we are not done yet, so we should all be have some restraint until we see the whole body of work. I think the Browns deserve overall credit for being aggressive. It is clear that are are trying to get better and are willing to use resources to do that.
Posted at March 2, 2008 11:20 PM  
Anonymous Ryan said…
I know your irrational/somewhat rational love for Bodden, and until last year I shared in it full-heartedly. But, he got burnt a ton this year. By the end of the season I was hoping that Holly, McDonald or Wright were guarding the other teams WRs.

Plus, you can't really compare it to the Cincinnati deal that fell through. If the Browns probably had to better the deal to get it done and besides, a 4th round pick is worth quite a bit. Especially when you consider that we no longer have our 1st, 2nd, or 3rd.
Posted at March 3, 2008 12:12 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said…
Agree with the posters above. Bodden was better than average, not great though. NFL teams have to focus on where there greatest needs are and sacrifice other positions. Great teams do this and keep on winning, and Browns will have to do the same.

My guess is they have seen enough of Brandon McDonald and E. Wright to know they'll be fine. These guys are young, but nowadays in the NFL, you have to win with young players.

It'll be fine.
Posted at March 3, 2008 12:19 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said…
the following is from dan banks of cnn/si:

The Browns offered a third-round pick plus cornerback Leigh Bodden. Now, on his own, Bodden, at $1.75 million in 2008, was as valuable to the team as the terminally inconsistent Rogers. But Bodden wanted more money. Lots more money. And Cleveland wasn't willing to pony up.

This sums it up pretty nicely... deteriorating performance and an increasing ego = traded
Posted at March 3, 2008 10:40 AM  
Blogger Jack Gonzo, MD said…
Bodden became garbage this year, plain and simple. With the emergence of Wright and McDonald he became expendable. Shaun Rogers is a dominate force, and won't be expected to make ALL the plays like he was in Detroit. Him, along with Corey Williams and the Smith's just completely revitalized our defense. We got rid of ToddG, thank god, and now got rid of the corner who was being burnt like a piece of bread in a broken toaster.

Remember, Randy Moss was acquired for only a fourth round pick last year so it isn't too far off. I don't care what any other team does this year, we've had the best draft so far and it hasn't even happened yet.
Posted at March 3, 2008 10:58 AM  
Blogger MadElf said…
Am I the only one who noticed how his performance went downhill after he cut off his long, luxurious dreadlocks?

Hey, if we can yack it up about socks here, what's the big deal about hair?

But, he did stink it up last year, and a good portion of the year before...liked the Bodden, but...
Posted at March 3, 2008 11:02 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said…
Call me an eternal Cleveland optimist, but I like this move a lot, especially in combination with the other moves this team has made in the past week or so. Savage is setting this team up to be very competitive in the upcoming seasons.
Posted at March 4, 2008 1:13 PM  
Blogger Jack said…
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2008/03/04/ramblings/audibles/6173/

to be fair, the FO guys definitely don't think that savage got fleeced by millen, and they've been some of the biggest bodden homers on the planet since 2005.

i think that, given the new information revealed by jon heyman (basically that bodden wanted more money and the browns didn't want to give it to him) makes the situation much more palatable, especially considering that savage & co. are in a much better position to evaluate the guy's future value than we are.

still, any NFL CB who cites "a portable nietzsche" as one of their favorite books (oh yeah, i friended him on myspace) is awesome in my book. good luck to him in motown.
Posted at March 5, 2008 2:26 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said…
Bodden's reputation was built off of one good game against the Bengals where C. Johnson lauded him with comments. Frankly the last 2 years he's been crap and has been lucky to get some gift INT's. Also your logic that the Browns offer was equal to the Bengals is questionable. There's a reason the Lions picked the Bengals offer first; it was a better value (to them). There backup plan obviously isn't going to be equal value.
Posted at March 6, 2008 11:35 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said…
ey you guys. blog more. you funny! me likey
Posted at March 6, 2008 11:43 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said…
I would like to mention that Savage stated that there were several good cb's that will go in the middle rounds. We have a 4th, losing our 3rd for Rogers. Its possible that Savage sees a gem that may be there when we pick in the 4th (not to mention Holley and McDonalds success).
Posted at March 9, 2008 6:00 PM  
Blogger Farmer said…
it's a lot easier to find a corner than dl for 3-4. that made this decision work for me.
Posted at March 12, 2008 10:42 PM  

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