George Is Gettin' Upset!
by Alex
In the transaction flurry following the start of the N.F.L. free agent period, the Browns have made three moves: resigning Derek Anderson, trading for Corey Williams, and trading for Shaun Rogers. I'm going to write about the last of these. For the sake of exposition, the Lions were originally going to trade Rogers to the Bengals for a third- and fifth-round pick. The league put the kibosh on that deal due to"language issues in the trade agreement," according to ESPN.com. So, the Browns swooped in, offering a third-rounder and Leigh Bodden for Rogers. The Lions quickly accepted and that's where we are now.
The Bengals' third-round pick is the seventy-seventh overall, for a standard draft value of 205. The Bengals' fifth-round pick is the one-hundred-forty-first, for a value of 35.5. The Browns' third-round pick is the eighty-seventh overall, valued at 155. So, from the Lions' perspective, they would've received 240.5 points in draft value from the Bengals and 155 and Leigh Bodden from the Browns. That they were willing to make both trades suggests that Leigh Bodden was valued at 85.5 points (the difference between 240.5 and 155), or an early-fourth-rounder.
Excuse me? Leigh Bodden is worth an early-fourth-round pick? What the hell is this? Regular readers should know that Corey and I have been Passengers #1 and #1A of the Leigh Bodden Bandwagon since 2004. And it's not just us. For example, here's a quote from Pro Football Prospectus 2007:
It's possible the Browns have an insight that Bodden has become irrevocably worse and is actually worth only a fourth-rounder now. I find that highly implausible, considering that he played pretty well at the end of the season. There can't be some injury the Browns are hiding—that'd be trading in bad faith. And if Bodden stunk on the field last season, surely the Lions' scouts would've kept the team from trading for him.
All this is pretty one-sided, though. P.F.P. has nice things to say about Shaun Rogers too, but they're not even close to the praise that rains upon Bodden. Rogers is very good and fills a serious need for the Browns, but doesn't the trade now make cornerback a need, too? Would you be willing to hand a starting job to Brandon McDonald with such a small body of work? Frankly, I don't think Rogers is in as high a percentile of defensive linemen that Bodden is in of defensive backs. The Lions probably got the better player. Though, even if that's not the case, the Browns got fleeced.
The Bengals' third-round pick is the seventy-seventh overall, for a standard draft value of 205. The Bengals' fifth-round pick is the one-hundred-forty-first, for a value of 35.5. The Browns' third-round pick is the eighty-seventh overall, valued at 155. So, from the Lions' perspective, they would've received 240.5 points in draft value from the Bengals and 155 and Leigh Bodden from the Browns. That they were willing to make both trades suggests that Leigh Bodden was valued at 85.5 points (the difference between 240.5 and 155), or an early-fourth-rounder.
Excuse me? Leigh Bodden is worth an early-fourth-round pick? What the hell is this? Regular readers should know that Corey and I have been Passengers #1 and #1A of the Leigh Bodden Bandwagon since 2004. And it's not just us. For example, here's a quote from Pro Football Prospectus 2007:
It's hard to explain the Browns valuing a player so loved by the leading football authority on the web as a fourth-round pick. Tony Grossi writes that they gave up on "a rags-to-riches player who some in the organization felt slipped measurably last season." If that's the case, the Browns made a terribly stupid decision. They had a player who was widely considered one of the best in the league. He's young; he's affordable. Then he had a bad season—not terrible—but worse than they'd expected. Should they then trade him, when his value is at it's lowest? Of course not!At Pro Football Prospectus, we absolutely love Leigh Bodden. Cleveland's DVOA against number-one receivers indicates that he's great. Our game charting numbers indicate that he's great. Our own subjective viewings of the Browns indicate that he's great.
It's possible the Browns have an insight that Bodden has become irrevocably worse and is actually worth only a fourth-rounder now. I find that highly implausible, considering that he played pretty well at the end of the season. There can't be some injury the Browns are hiding—that'd be trading in bad faith. And if Bodden stunk on the field last season, surely the Lions' scouts would've kept the team from trading for him.
All this is pretty one-sided, though. P.F.P. has nice things to say about Shaun Rogers too, but they're not even close to the praise that rains upon Bodden. Rogers is very good and fills a serious need for the Browns, but doesn't the trade now make cornerback a need, too? Would you be willing to hand a starting job to Brandon McDonald with such a small body of work? Frankly, I don't think Rogers is in as high a percentile of defensive linemen that Bodden is in of defensive backs. The Lions probably got the better player. Though, even if that's not the case, the Browns got fleeced.

12 Comments:
Plus, you can't really compare it to the Cincinnati deal that fell through. If the Browns probably had to better the deal to get it done and besides, a 4th round pick is worth quite a bit. Especially when you consider that we no longer have our 1st, 2nd, or 3rd.
My guess is they have seen enough of Brandon McDonald and E. Wright to know they'll be fine. These guys are young, but nowadays in the NFL, you have to win with young players.
It'll be fine.
The Browns offered a third-round pick plus cornerback Leigh Bodden. Now, on his own, Bodden, at $1.75 million in 2008, was as valuable to the team as the terminally inconsistent Rogers. But Bodden wanted more money. Lots more money. And Cleveland wasn't willing to pony up.
This sums it up pretty nicely... deteriorating performance and an increasing ego = traded
Remember, Randy Moss was acquired for only a fourth round pick last year so it isn't too far off. I don't care what any other team does this year, we've had the best draft so far and it hasn't even happened yet.
Hey, if we can yack it up about socks here, what's the big deal about hair?
But, he did stink it up last year, and a good portion of the year before...liked the Bodden, but...
to be fair, the FO guys definitely don't think that savage got fleeced by millen, and they've been some of the biggest bodden homers on the planet since 2005.
i think that, given the new information revealed by jon heyman (basically that bodden wanted more money and the browns didn't want to give it to him) makes the situation much more palatable, especially considering that savage & co. are in a much better position to evaluate the guy's future value than we are.
still, any NFL CB who cites "a portable nietzsche" as one of their favorite books (oh yeah, i friended him on myspace) is awesome in my book. good luck to him in motown.
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