The Value of Goat's Milk in Daily Diet (Though You Can Be Sure I Will Also Speak Against Larry Hughes)
by Corey
You've undoubtedly heard that the Cavs made a big trade today. In general, I don't like to blog about what's in the headlines, nor do I like to deliver snap assessments of trades, but this one is pretty mesmerizing. It's got an extremely positive element (bye, Larry!) a few elements that I would generally consider negative (see below), and a few minor pieces and parts that are really hard to place in one category or the other. Basically, I have no idea how I feel about this news.
For starters, I thought it might be useful to look at the salaries being swapped in this deal. The Cavs are unloading their worst contract, but taking on both Chicago's worst contract and Seattle's worst. Click to enlarge:
All told, the Cavs are taking on some salary this season (and we shouldn't really care about that), but breaking even in 2009 and 2010. Some are speculating that this trade is an attempt to delay the clearing of the books to coincide with LeBron's contract year. But it doesn't look like much difference has been made. Szczerbiak comes off the books just as LeBron's re-up comes into play, but then, so would have Gooden and Marshall. It ends up being a wash.
Now, a final word about Larry Hughes. He was awful. Actually, let me re-phrase that. He was awful on offense. He took a ton of shots. He couldn't shoot. He was overpaid. And he was often injured. In short, I really, really, really, really disliked his play—and not just recently, when it was fashionable, but for years now. The simple likelihood that Larry's many shot attempts will be replaced by some combination of Gibson, Szczerbiak, and LeBron shot attempts is a very good thing.
On the other hand, the Cavs are also losing Drew Gooden. I may not be completely impartial about Gooden, because I absolutely love his persona (his watch with the calculator in it, his after-the-whistle highlights... you know what I mean) but he is a very good player with an extremely friendly salary. I am very sad to see Gooden go.
So what are we left with? Ben Wallace might be the most overrated player in the NBA. If you think Hughes was a liability on offense, you don't want to look at Wallace's offensive (get it?) stats (warning, NSFW):
Luckily, he has the second lowest usage rate in the NBA, so unlike Larry Hughes, his poor shooting will not directly affect the box score. Instead, it will indirectly affect the box score, by placing pressure on the other four Cavaliers on the court, who will essentially have to do the jobs of five men. Wallace may be great on defense (though his 2007-2008 D-rating of 101 is the worst of his career) but, in the words of Jerry Seinfeld, "She'd have to be really vibrant."
Wally Szczerbiak is also ridiculously overpaid. He'll be relied on to shoot, and not much else. His current eFG% (.529) and TS% (.573) are not bad; each ranks him in the mid-40s among qualifying NBA players. His defense, meanwhile, is pretty bad (111 D-rating this season, 110 last season). In fact, Hughes was much better in that area.
I could go on to analyze Delonte West a little bit, but I'm tired and anyway, I don't know what to make of West. He gets a lot of hype (seemingly) and had a good sophomore season in 2006, but has gotten progressively worse since then.
So am I happy? No, definitely not. Am I upset? Not really. I don't know what I am. But I tell you what, I can't wait until the "new" Cavs have played enough games that we can start to compare offensive and defensive performance from before and after the trade. So you have that to look forward to.
For starters, I thought it might be useful to look at the salaries being swapped in this deal. The Cavs are unloading their worst contract, but taking on both Chicago's worst contract and Seattle's worst. Click to enlarge:
All told, the Cavs are taking on some salary this season (and we shouldn't really care about that), but breaking even in 2009 and 2010. Some are speculating that this trade is an attempt to delay the clearing of the books to coincide with LeBron's contract year. But it doesn't look like much difference has been made. Szczerbiak comes off the books just as LeBron's re-up comes into play, but then, so would have Gooden and Marshall. It ends up being a wash.
Now, a final word about Larry Hughes. He was awful. Actually, let me re-phrase that. He was awful on offense. He took a ton of shots. He couldn't shoot. He was overpaid. And he was often injured. In short, I really, really, really, really disliked his play—and not just recently, when it was fashionable, but for years now. The simple likelihood that Larry's many shot attempts will be replaced by some combination of Gibson, Szczerbiak, and LeBron shot attempts is a very good thing.
On the other hand, the Cavs are also losing Drew Gooden. I may not be completely impartial about Gooden, because I absolutely love his persona (his watch with the calculator in it, his after-the-whistle highlights... you know what I mean) but he is a very good player with an extremely friendly salary. I am very sad to see Gooden go.
So what are we left with? Ben Wallace might be the most overrated player in the NBA. If you think Hughes was a liability on offense, you don't want to look at Wallace's offensive (get it?) stats (warning, NSFW):
2008 2007 2006Wallace's current eFG% and FT% are both the worst in the entire NBA by a significant margin. He's an effective rebounder overall (34th in the NBA in total Rebound Rate) but even in that area he lags behind such Cavs/former Cavs as Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Anderson Varejão, and yes, Drew Gooden.
eFG% .373 .454 .510
FT% .424 .408 .416
OReb% .115 .129 .122
Usage .102 .106 .112
O-Rating 98 106 112
Luckily, he has the second lowest usage rate in the NBA, so unlike Larry Hughes, his poor shooting will not directly affect the box score. Instead, it will indirectly affect the box score, by placing pressure on the other four Cavaliers on the court, who will essentially have to do the jobs of five men. Wallace may be great on defense (though his 2007-2008 D-rating of 101 is the worst of his career) but, in the words of Jerry Seinfeld, "She'd have to be really vibrant."
Wally Szczerbiak is also ridiculously overpaid. He'll be relied on to shoot, and not much else. His current eFG% (.529) and TS% (.573) are not bad; each ranks him in the mid-40s among qualifying NBA players. His defense, meanwhile, is pretty bad (111 D-rating this season, 110 last season). In fact, Hughes was much better in that area.
I could go on to analyze Delonte West a little bit, but I'm tired and anyway, I don't know what to make of West. He gets a lot of hype (seemingly) and had a good sophomore season in 2006, but has gotten progressively worse since then.
So am I happy? No, definitely not. Am I upset? Not really. I don't know what I am. But I tell you what, I can't wait until the "new" Cavs have played enough games that we can start to compare offensive and defensive performance from before and after the trade. So you have that to look forward to.
4 Comments:
The new look frontcourt is a bit of a gamble...
Joe Smith should be a more intelligent, consistent compliment to James than Gooden. The trade off here is talent and sustainability - Gooden was the younger, more talented player. Joe Smith will play smarter, though, and can fill the void left by Gooden (the only valuable player we lost) fairly well.
Ben Wallace will likely play 20-25 minutes. Ben will provide solid interior defense and perhaps the defensive spark Mike Brown has been looking for. He's certainly aging, but a lot of people expect the change of scenery to help Ben. Even if it doesn't, though, we simply traded Hughes' terrible contract for Ben's. Contract wise, it's a bit of a loss since Ben's is slightly bigger and he's older. Still, it's exciting to think of seeing shades of 2004-5 Big Ben patrolling for the Cavs, even if it is merely in a reserve role.
The problem with the new frontcourt is efficient scoring. That's going to fall on Z and Smith - two aging and potentially fragile guys. Plus, they're both half court players. Any dreams of a west coast style run n gun offense are pretty much dashed - we're being built as a defensive team with a superstar scoring machine. The good news is, hey, that could work. Just think about the big men matchups we can throw at Detroit and Boston in the playoffs, now.
The backcourt is a different story. I think we're improved here. Let's talk about Hughes first.
Larry Hughes, for all the talk about his contract, kills us in a way that's at best poorly articulated. He's one of the least efficient scorers in the NBA. He's atrocious in offensive efficiency. This is truly a case of addition by subtraction. No longer will we have that moron chucking misguided jumpers from a foot inside the 3pt line. Phew.
Delonte West is a well rounded player without superb talent. He'll play less selfishly and more efficiently than Hughes. Plays good D, shoots pretty well, and knows how to pass. He'll struggle with defending larger guards (something Hughes did well), but will be able to keep up with the smaller guards cough Tony Parker cough that have murdered us. As a Dayton Flyer, I saw a lot of West at St. Joe's. He's a phenomenal basketball mind and he's not untalented. He'll be used with Gibson as a PG here. I think he has the potential to be a breakout player, as he's not been on a winning team since college.
Sczerbiak scares me. He's a great shooter, don't get me wrong. He'll be very valuable as that corner three shooter that Donyell thought he was a Damon Jones aspires to be. That's ALL the guy can do though. He WILL NOT defend, and he can't handle the ball too well - despite what he may think. He's been a cancer every where he's been, far more so than Ben in Chicago. He and KG repeatedly got into it in Minnesota. The good news with Wally, though, is the contract situation...
We really win out in the contract situations, I believe. We traded one expiring contract for another (Newble for Smith) but Smith's is a few million bigger. More importantly, we traded one 08/09 expiring contract for another (Marshall for Wally). Marshall's contract, though, is less than half of Wally's. At the end if this year, the Cavs will be LOADED with expiring deals.
Look at this:
Wally: $12M+
Eric Snow: $7M+
Damon Jones $4M+
That is just an insane amount of expiring contracts. With those trading chips, we'll be able to acquire just about anyone that's available. Look for the Cavs to make a trade worth remembering by this time next year.
So in essence, this could improve us this year, but the important part is that it puts in an exceptional position to improve ourselves next year.
At the best, some parameter shooting and a little bit of intimidation under the rim brings Cleveland a Championship.
Either way, Ferry make something happen and he's off the hook (for now).
Which means if the Cavs don't make it this year, they've already exercised part of the equation, and it might be Mike Brown whose sent packing next (Doug Collins, anyone?).
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