Hey, it's still Friday! Voulez-vous Browns Preview avec moi?

DVOA reports. How DVOA works.

Browns offense vs. Cardinals defense:

           CLE offense  ARI defense
total DVOA    13.8%         2.4%
passing       26.3%         4.3%
rushing       -0.3%        -0.3%

The Browns continue to chug along with their 7th-place offensive DVOA ranking. The passing game ranks 7th and the rushing game has risen to 11th. Derek Anderson still ranks 3rd in passing DPAR (78.7); meanwhile his rank in passing DVOA has risen to 3rd as well (37.2%). Kellen Winslow now leads the team in both receiving DPAR (21.3, 3rd among TEs) and DVOA (21.8%, 11th). After him, Braylon Edwards has the most DPAR (18.1, 13th among WRs), but it's actually Joe Jurevicius with the higher receiving DVOA (19.4%, 15th among WRs). And, best for last: the offensive line has risen to 6th in Adjusted Line Yards (4.45) and 5th in Adjusted Sack Rate, allowing a sack on only 4.2% of passing plays.

So what kind of test will they face this weekend in Arizona? The Cardinals are about average on defense, ranking 17th overall. Their passing defense is weak against #1 receivers (26.5% DVOA, to rank 28th) and #2 receivers (12.0%, to rank 20th), but relatively strong against all other types of receivers. They will be without their best defensive player, however, as safety Adrian Wilson, longtime Football Outsiders favorite, was put on injured reserve this week. That should soften up the middle of the Cardinals' pass defense considerably. On the ground, they rank 8th in Adjusted Line Yards Against (3.91), but have been noticeably weak when their opponents run off tackle to the right (4.97, to rank 28th). The Browns don't run in that direction very often, so it will be interesting to see what kind of rushes Chudzinski calls. Advantage: Browns

Cardinals offense vs. Browns defense:

           ARI offense  CLE defense
total DVOA    -1.6%        15.4%
passing        5.9%        28.5%
rushing      -11.7%        -1.1%

Last week, the Browns defense played its best game of the season so far, though I felt the end results were better than they should have been. DVOA seems to agree, as the Browns' defensive DVOA stays about the same, and they actually drop in the rankings, to 30th (which has a lot more to do with the Saints than the Browns, but I digress).

Arizona ranks 19th in offensive DVOA, and has been more successful passing (17th) than rushing (23rd). The biggest receiving threat is Larry Fitzgerald, whose high-volume production ranks him 15th in receiving DPAR among WRs (17.8), though his receiving DVOA of 6.1% ranks only 39th. Tight ends Leonard Pope and Jerheme Urban lead the Cardinals in receiving DVOA (18.9% and 11.4%), which could be a problem (the Browns rank 22nd in defending TEs with a 23.3% DVOA). Advantage: Cardinals

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns   Cardinals
total DVOA                7.9%     -3.4%
FG kicking               -0.4      -4.4
CLE kickoff vs. ARI KR    3.2      -3.2
CLE KR vs. ARI kickoff   28.6       3.9
CLE punt vs. ARI PR      -2.0       6.1
CLE PR vs. ARI punt       2.3     -16.1

Despite a quiet game versus the Texans, the Browns' kickoff return team still rates as the best single special teams unit of the past 12 years. Arizona ranks 8th in kicking off, and has the best such rating of any team left on the Browns' schedule; however, before you go sticking your head in the oven, know that their kickoff team is all about Neil Rackers and his kicking distance. Rackers has one of the best touchback percentages in football, but on those occasions when guys actually get to return the kick, the Cardinals are no great shakes. This means the Browns, as a team, may get fewer kickoff return opportunities, but it means Josh Cribbs may actually get more, as the Cardinals certainly won't be trying to kick away from him.

In other news, the Cards are 8th in returning punts, and 31st in punting. The Browns are about average in both those categories, but don't be surprised to see either team break off a long punt return or two. Advantage: Browns

Overall, the 13th-ranked Browns (6.2% DVOA) are a better team than the 18th-ranked Cardinals (-7.4%), but this game isn't going to be a walk in the cake. Go Browns!

Firstly, I swear I was totally going to finish up the last two editions of Are They Improved? but the N.B.A. season is so far along by now, what's the point of writing a season preview? Anyway…

Earlier this month, when the Writers Guild of America went on strike, it dominated headlines nationwide. The strike captured the attention of nearly everyone who writes for a living. The writers are still on strike. Most people don't think the end is in sight. And, at least in New York, people still will argue about which side is right, the writers or the management.

You might wonder why I'm bringing this up. Well, as Cleveland sports fans, we've already witnessed a similar situation over the previous months. When Anderson Varejão refused to show up to the Cavaliers' training camp (or even when the team tipped off the season with Varejão still unsigned), it made plenty of headlines in Cleveland and got meager national attention. Varejão remains a restricted free agent to this day. There haven't been many rumors of him signing for a while.

One of my favorite financial writers, James Surowiecki, had an excellent article about the writers' strike in the New Yorker a few weeks back. Now, sports 'blogs generally don't quote from the New Yorker, but spare me.

One obvious hurdle to a settlement is that neither side knows what the other's true position is. In economists' terms, strikes happen as a result of "asymmetric information"—when one side knows more than the other about the real economics of the situation.... If a company concedes quickly, that's a sign that it was just bluffing. If it's willing to endure a long strike, that may be a sign that it meant what it said. That's why the longer a strike lasts, the less likely it is to produce a big victory for either side: you're willing to cut a deal after a long strike that you wouldn’t have been willing to cut before in part because the strike has told you that the other side wasn't just bluffing.

You got that? Since the Cavaliers didn't fold quickly and give in to Anderson's demands, they presumably weren't joking about (1) being unable or unwilling to spend a ton of money on Varejão and (2) not believing that he's worth that much anyway. And the longer Varejão refuses to sign with the team, the more he's hurting himself. The Cavaliers' willingness to endure his absence and give playing time to Dwayne Jones really show they weren't joking.

Anderson Varejão and Dan Fegan, his agent, (probably) aren't stupid. They should've realized that the longer Anderson stays off the court, the less leverage he has. Why hasn't he just struck a deal already? After all, his "strike" is hurting both sides: he's not drawing a paycheck and the Cavs are a worse team without him. Surowiecki has an answer for this, too.

[J]ustice matters quite a bit in strikes, which often turn more on questions of fairness than on strict economics. Fairness doesn't matter much in conventional economics, which assumes that, if you and I can make a deal leaving us both better off, we’ll make it. But, in the real world, if the deal seems unfair to me I may very well reject it, even if doing so leaves me worse off.

Even though Varejão and Fegan may have come to realize that they're not going to get the high salary they initially demanded, they're having a hard time accepting the Cavaliers counter-offer. They see it as unfair. This is irrational in strictly economic terms, since it would behoove both sides to agree by now. However, people hate feeling exploited, even when taking it like a man is the more logical choice. Thus, his restricted free agency continues.

As a parting shot, here's my advice for both sides. To the Cavaliers: toe the line. Eventually Varejão will have no choice but to bite the bullet, I bet. His leverage is evaporating and no other team seems willing to sign him. And to Varejão: get the best compromise you can and just sign it. If you'd like, make it a one-year deal, so you can hit the open market next ummer. You're really not helping anyone by sitting on the sidelines at this point. The chances of a windfall victory are now zero.

After the Browns' thrilling victory over the Texans the other day, our most loyal reader, Anonymous, posted the following comment:

700 yards and 7 touchdowns later....

still sticking to your pre-season statement that Jamal Lewis is going to do absolutely nothing this year?

Now, this is a common criticism, so naturally, I have several things to say on the subject. Firstly, to be clear, neither Alex nor I ever said that Jamal Lewis would "do nothing" this season. For one thing, we are both extremely loath to make predictions, as you may have noticed. For another thing, we both know that running back performance tends to correlate more to other players' actions than to the running back's. Thus, it is possible to have a rusher, like Jamal Lewis, with a poor track record but gaudy stats.

I realize that many people will argue that Lewis has a good track record because of his career yardage totals (and records); however, he has always been an extreme boom-or-bust player, meaning a lot of his yards came in small (that is, unproductive) increments, or were of the "empty" variety (for example, a 6-yard carry on 3rd-and-12). It also means he needed a lot of carries to achieve those yardage totals—more than an average rusher, certainly.

It was for these reasons (plus the fact that Lewis' backups in Baltimore usually outdid him on a per-play basis) that Alex and I expressed our displeasure with the Jamal Lewis signing during the offseason. We would have preferred the Browns to spend their money and resources on other positions, and let an untested player fill the running back role. Of course, the signing of Lewis may have influenced the Browns to stay away from a running back in the draft, and thus led to the acquisition of Joe Thomas, so indirectly, it may have been a good thing. Nevertheless, if we were at all pessimistic about the 2007 Browns' chances to find rushing success, it had more to do with the fact that the Browns offense had been so inept in that area previously, and less to do with Lewis' age and track record—although those things certainly factored in.

Now that the Browns have played 11 games—and developed into an offensive juggernaut of sorts—the perception is that they have developed a top-tier running game (and that Lewis is the reason for it). This is conventional wisdom in the NFL. Now, I'm not going to disagree entirely with this line of thinking, but this particular piece of conventional wisdom has one major flaw: in the NFL, rushing yardage tends to follow offensive success, not the other way around. In other words, if you study the teams with the highest rushing totals, you'll find that they amass all those extra rushing yards by running out the clock during the second half, after already having built up a lead. Take away "running out the clock" yardage, and you'll find the playing field completely leveled (so to speak), and the rushing yardage rankings completely re-ordered.

So yes, Lewis has put up some impressive stats in the "traditional" categories. But the Browns' running game, overall, has been about league average. I'll get to my reasons for saying that in a bit. First, I want to try to explain why 741 yards and 8 touchdowns are not necessarily good indicators of rushing success.

First of all, I believe that judging a running back by his total yardage is a little bit like judging a baseball player by his total RBI. It's almost completely correlated to what the rest of the team does, and has very little to do with the player himself. It will be heavily influenced by how much playing time he gets, how good his blockers are, how good his team's passing attack is, and (what I think gets overlooked) how often his team holds the lead. So I would prefer not to pay much attention to the 741 rushing yards. That said, I will play devil's advocate: even to a traditionalist, 741 yards in not especially impressive. Accounting for the one game Jamal missed, it comes to 74.1 yards per game, which ranks him 13th in the NFL (and is about 3 YPG fewer than Reuben Droughns had in his overrated 2005 season). Drilling it down further, Jamal's 4.1 yards per carry places him squarely in the middle of the pack, among running backs.

Jamal's 8 touchdowns do tie him for 3rd in the NFL (among running backs), but once again, they have little to do with the actual quality of his performance. How much credit does a running back really deserve if he runs the ball in from the 1-yard line on 1st-and-goal, if his teammates did all the heavy lifting by passing their way down to the 1-yard line in the first place? What about if he fails to punch it in on 1st and 2nd down, but succeeds on 3rd down? That's a 1-in-3 success rate, which is way below average for that type of situation. The average NFL offense successfully converts a 1st-and-goal into a touchdown a large majority of the time. Give a guy enough 1st-and-1 or 1st-and-2 opportunities (which the Browns do, because they have a good passing offense), and he's going to score a ton of touchdowns whether he's a great back or a lousy one. I don't mean to imply that all of Lewis' TDs have been 1-yard punch-ins, because one of them was a 66-yard run against Cincinnati, for which Jamal deserves a huge share of the credit. But two of them were 2-yard runs and the other five were 1-yard runs. The fact of the matter is, Jamal's ability to punch it in from the 1 or 2 yard line does not separate him in any way from the vast majority of NFL running backs.

But then, if you can't put much stock in traditional counting stats like yards and TDs, how do you evaluate running backs? The short answer is, there's no great way to do it without extensive scouting. It's simply impossible for any statistics to separate the running back's contribution from the blockers' contribution. However, I do think that the stats they've created at Football Outsiders do a better job of filtering out the nonsense than any traditional stats do. If you read our blog regularly, you know I'm primarily talking about DVOA and DPAR. And if I have to try to evaluate Jamal Lewis' performance thus far, I would prefer to use DVOA and DPAR to do it.

Now, you may not "trust" DVOA and DPAR because you don't understand how they work. This is understandable, since they are new-fangled and complicated. I'm not going to try to explain them here (you're free to read FO's own explanation), but I will say that, whether you understand the methodology or not—whether you agree with the methodology or not—it's hard to argue with the fact that DVOA and DPAR correlate better from year to year than any other statistics out there. That is to say: they predict future performance better, since they do a good job of controlling for some of the freakish, unpredictable variables that tend to skew traditional stats.

Take a look at Jamal Lewis' yardage and TD numbers and try to guess (for example) how fumble-prone he has been. You simply can't. DVOA and DPAR get around this. They take every single play into account, weighing each one based on its success rate compared to what we might reasonably expect (eg. "league average"). Thus, a fumble gets counted as a really bad thing. A 1-yard TD run gets counted as a good—but common—thing. A 66-yard TD run gets counted as an extremely awesome thing. Runs against the Jets defense get counted as less impressive. Runs against the Steelers defense get counted as more impressive. Et cetera, et cetera. In this way, you get a reasonably complete picture, which is 100% objective and unbiased.

Now you can begin to understand why Alex and I were less than thrilled with the Jamal Lewis signing in the first place. For many years, he was that rare example of a running back whose DVOA and DPAR conflicted significantly with his "traditional" stats. On top of that, between his peak in 2003 to his 2006 campaign, his DVOA and DPAR showed a significant and consistent decline. Simply put, when his tenure with the Ravens came to an end, he was one of the more overrated free agents available.

Of course, that was no guarantee that his 2007 numbers would be anywhere near as bad (especially since they have so much to do with the surrounding cast, anyway). So what do DVOA and DPAR think about Jamal Lewis' 2007 season? They think he's been slightly below league average, but had some positive value through sheer volume of workload. His rushing DVOA of -1.9% ranks him 30th among 50 qualifying running backs, while his rushing DPAR of 9.9 ranks him 20th.

That isn't to say he hasn't had some great games. His 7.2 rushing DPAR against Pittsburgh ranked him 1st among all running backs in Week 11. And his 5.2 rushing DPAR against the Texans ranked him 3rd for Week 12. Over the whole season, however, there just haven't been enough of those performances to push Jamal ahead of the competition.

On the other hand, "slightly below league average" is still way better than what I had in mind when I first found out about the Lewis signing. And it's way, way better than what the Browns have gotten from their running backs over the last few years. So I am willing to eat a certain amount of crow. (Mmmm... tastes like pancakes.) But I am still not willing to say that the Browns' improved rushing in 2007 is attributable to the addition of Jamal Lewis. For one thing, as far as I'm concerned, the massive improvement of the offensive line represents about 90% of the difference right there. But for another thing, Jamal's backups, Jason Wright and Jerome Harrison, have been comparably successful, on a per-play basis. For all we know, you could throw Toby Radloff out there behind Joe Thomas & Co., and he'd put up a league-average DVOA.

In closing, the matter is far from certain. It's entirely possible that Lewis has found a way to rejuvenate himself and that's why he's had two great games in a row now. For the time being, though, I'm more comfortable believing that he's benefiting from circumstances: rushing behind a better O-line than the Ravens have had the last few years; getting a lot of carries thanks to the Browns being in the lead late in the game; facing defenses who don't stack the line because they're afraid of the Browns' passing game. And so on.

So to recap: Alex and I did not say Jamal Lewis would "do nothing". We did think he was a sub-par back. And we think he may still be a sub-par back, although it's certainly not hurting the Browns offense too much, thanks to a host of other factors.

Let the angry comments and e-mails commence.

I don't have much to say by way of introduction this time around, but I'll say this. When was the last time you heard someone calling for Brady Quinn to be starting? When was the last time you heard someone calling for Romeo Crennel to be fired? Or Phil Savage? After this week, you may not even hear people calling for Todd Grantham's head either (although the defensive performance may not be repeatable, read on for details).

I'd just like to point out how amazingly quickly things have changed for the Browns. Just about twelve weeks ago, the offense and defense both looked to be shambles. And now? Do I smell… waffles?

Play of the Week

Alex says: In their two-minute drill at the end of the first half, Kellen Winslow made a nice sideline catch on third-and-fifteen for twelve yards. So, the Browns, trailing 10-7, were faced with a decision on fourth down: attempt a forty-nine-yard field goal, just inside Le Fils d'Awesome's range, or attempt to gain three yards. to It took big brass ones on the part of Romeo Crennel to send the offense back out. Derek Anderson hit Braylon Edwards on a quick slant to the left for the first down. Braylon was able to make the catch despite a defensive back wrapped around him and then even broke a tackle for a few more yards. The Browns went on to score a touchdown before halftime. They never lost the lead after that drive.

Corey says: My favorite play of the game came in the second quarter, with the Browns facing 3rd-and-1 at their own 39-yard line. They came out in a truly Carthon-esque formation, with Heiden on the right side, Jurevicius lined up as another tight end on the left, and both Lewis and Vickers in the backfield. One receiver (Edwards, I think) lined up wide to the right. Anderson faked a handoff to the right, as 11 Texans (and a host of other people) bit hard. Several minutes later, Anderson threw it to a wide open Jurevicius in the left flat, who moonwalked down the sideline for a 25-yard gain.

Player of the Week

Alex says: There are a few deserving candidates from this week's game, but none were as consistently great as Kellen Winslow. Derek Anderson targeted Winslow on ten passes and Winslow brought in all ten of them, for 107 yards. While that yardage total may seem low for ten catches, eight of them were successful plays and six resulted in first downs. Also, apparently this was the week the national media decided Winslow has the best hands in the N.F.L. First, Steve Tasker said that Winslow may have the best hands of any tight end… or wide receiver… in the whole league… ever. Then, John Clayton wrote, "Winslow is simply amazing at getting open and making the impossible catch. Indeed, he may have the best hands of any pass catcher in football." I'm not going to argue or anything, but since when is Winslow Mr. Hands? It just seems a little out of the blue for me.

Corey says: Rookie cornerback Brandon McDonald got his first action as a starting cornerback, and he more than lived up to expectations. According to the official play-by-play, the Texans tested McDonald five times, connecting only once (that being the first time, for an 18-yard completion to Andre Johnson). The other four attempts resulted in three incompletes and McDonald's first career interception. I'd say he's earned another week in the starter's role. Oh yeah, he also made two tackles on kickoffs (one of them at the 20-yard line).

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"I don't remember any of my catches. I remember my drops." —Kellen Winslow

Seeing as Winslow was ten-for-ten on catches this week, do you think we remembers any part of the game? Or is it all wiped out in some amnesic haze? (What? I've got nothing.)

Corey says:

"We are adding another layer of bricks to this house we have built. No playoff talk. We have to go to Arizona, and that is what we will be talking about. I think everyone is aware of the potential, but it doesn’t mean anything. There is no reason for playoff talk with five games to go." —Joe Jurevicius

Does "we are not talking about the playoffs" qualify as playoff talk? I say yes. At any rate, it is extremely well proven that any team whose players even entertain the thought of possibly, someday making it to the pancakes will instantly be guaranteed to miss out. I think they did a study.

Also, because Joe's interviews always provide us with the most platitudinous of platitudes, a bonus quote:

"This is a blue collar town and you are seeing a blue collar running game." —Joe Jurevicius

While I try to suppress my true feelings about the importance of the running game, let me once again ask the question: what, exactly, constitutes a white-collar running game? Or does blue-collar just mean good, and non-blue-collar means bad?

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: Josh Cribbs couldn't quite follow-up last week's record-setting performance. But that's what'll happen when you only get two kickoff returns and two punt returns. Yet another negative consequence of a good defense! Bring back the Browns of weeks one through eleven! Seriously though, even on a highlight-free day, Cribbs was able to give his offense good field position. On a seemingly-normal return, he brought a kickoff back twenty-nine yards, giving Anderson and company a short field to work with.

Corey says: It was a slow day for the Greatest Kick Return Team of All Time, as Cribbs only got to return it twice (one of Houston's four kickoffs was onside, and another was a touchback). Still, Cribbs managed a nice return, advancing the ball to the Browns' 40 in the second quarter. Granted, Darnell Dinkins opted to use his Hulk-like tight end powers to perpetrate some unnecessary roughness upon the opposing team, so the Browns were pushed back to the 25-yard line. But still.

Stan Sheriff Memorial Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: Yeah yeah yeah, Brandon McDonald. But how about that Nick Sorensen? In increased playing time, he got a tackle in punt coverage and he recovered the Texans' last-ditch onside kick. Hooray! Sorensen also was born in Winter Haven, Florida, former Spring Training home of the Indians, so he's probably a giant Tribe fan.

Corey says: I maintain that Brandon McDonald is ineligible for this award so long as he's the Player of the Week. So, uh... hey, did you know Travis Wilson is not only still on the team, he's active? Well, active in the sense of roster status, I mean. As far as I can tell, he's been on the roster all season long, yet I can't recall seeing him on the field for a single play (of course, I said the same thing about David McMillan two weeks ago, and it turns out he's participated in just about every special teams play of the season... I do watch the games, I swear!). Anyway, Travis is starting to look like one of the worst draft picks of 2006. Uh, congratulations?

Fashion Item of the Week

Alex says: The Browns' throwback uniforms are kind of disappointing, as far as throwbacks go. But that's actually a good thing. The team's look has changed so little in fifty years (besides the necessary equipment changes, like facemasks) that when they don their old uniforms, everything looks the same. So, while it may fewer cool jerseys to choose from at the team shop and consequently, less opportunities for management to price gouge you, take it as a testament to the Browns' dedication to tradition. It's such a nice change from all the turquoise-wearing, angrier-logo-making teams out there.

Corey says: I'm all for the Browns' throwbacks, but it has nothing to do with the helmets. I happen to like the normal helmets better than the throwback ones. No, it's all about the striped socks. Only occasionally do we get to see the Browns wear striped socks with their white jerseys—forget about the brown ones. Thus, if wearing helmets with numbers on them is what it takes to bring back the old striped-socks-with-brown-jerseys combo every once in a while, I say Hallelujah! That's why I was so distressed to see that a certain Browns player (let's call him... "Grellen Grinslow") wore his throwback helmet yesterday, but with the all-brown socks! Now, I have no doubt the NFL will fine Grinslow for this insulting offense; nevertheless, I intend to investigate this scandal to its sordid roots!

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: Unless I've been blacking out during commercial breaks, this week saw the premiere of Brady Quinn's Subway commercial. Basically, he throws sub sandwiches out to tailgating fans around Browns Stadium. Then he says something about being busy on Sundays and runs away. Hilarious! Anyway, this commercial sparked unrest at New York City Browns Backers, whose members were demanding of a Derek Anderson Subway commercial and actually booed Quinn by the end of the spot. You're probably thinking I'm going to upbraid them for booing a Brown, but you know what, where the heck is the Derek Anderson Subway commercial? It's about damn time!

Corey says: Honestly, I have no idea. I have nothing against the Texans or their pathetic organization. My Idiot of the Week is, uh... whoever called the game for CBS this week?

Number of the Week

Alex says: 55%, or Jamal Lewis's success rate running the ball against the Texans. Coming into the season, my thoughts on Lewis's signing were well known. I've since written on his rating and how over it is in more than a few editions of Born and Raised. But I have to give credit where credit is due, Lewis has played much better of late (meaning the last two games). Against the Ravens, he was one of the most effective backs in the league that week, and I wouldn't be surprised if the situation were the same this week, although most of that is due to his high number of touches. I'd still love to see more playing time for Jason Wright (who's been nearly equally effective as Lewis) and Jerome Harrison, because who are we kidding, it's all about the offensive line anyway.

Corey says: The Browns defense played perhaps its best game of the year. However, they still gave up their fair share of yards—5.6 per play, which is frankly kind of lousy. The discrepancy can be attributed to the Texans' poor conversion rate on 3rd and 4th down, in which they found success only twice in 11 tries. Now, not to read too much into a single game, but success on third and fourth down, while hugely important in determining the outcome of a given game, is not as good an indicator of future performance as success on first and second down (which probably has a lot to do with sample sizes). Thus, I am hesitant to think that the defense has "turned it around" or anything like that. I give them credit for having a good game, but I'll need to see a lot more before I can start to feel comfortable with the Browns defense again.

This Week on Josh's Cribbs

Corey says: The latest installment of our favorite reality show finds Josh and Maria joined by three other couples—Tim Carter & wife, Jason Gomillion Wright & fiancée, and Isaac Sowells & wife (apparently the Dinkinses got voted off the show in favor of an even obscurer Browns couple)—as they visit a dance studio in Mayfield Village. The couples receive instruction in a particular dance step (the rumba, maybe? I've already forgotten), at which point, as on every episode of Josh's Cribbs, Josh and his buddies turn the activity into an all-out competition. In the end, the Carters and Cribbses put on the most impressive displays, earning equal scores from the judges, which forces a sudden-death, winners-take-all dance off! (Spoiler alert: the Cribbses win.)

Pythagorean Moral Standings

The Browns whupped it up on the Texans, as Matt Schaub got exposed for the fake Derek Anderson impersonator that he truly is. No matter the score, the Bengals eked out a moral thriller against the Chiefs. And, of course, the Ravens got morally blanked by I'm not even going to bother checking who they played. They lost, big time, trust me. Lastly, we'll have to wait on the Miami-Pittsburgh matchup until next week.

            PMW   PML   pct
Cleveland   9.3   1.7  .845
Cincinnati  5.7   5.3  .518
Pittsburgh  4.8   5.2  .480
Baltimore   0.0  12.0  .000

Next week: Break out your orange parkas, it's time for December football! Oh, and break out your tank tops too, 'cause the Browns are heading to Arizona, where it's really more of a dry heat, so it's not that bad! We'll have all the confused weather references and some football stuff too on the next edition of Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns!

This year, I am thankful for... another Browns preview!

As always, the stats in this preview are borrowed from Football Outsiders' weekly DVOA reports. A detailed explanation of how DVOA works can be read here.

Browns offense vs. Texans defense:

           CLE offense  HOU defense
total DVOA    12.6%        10.6%
passing       26.9%        18.6%
rushing       -3.7%         1.4%

The Browns' offensive DVOA rank has risen back to 7th in the NFL, with the passing game ranked 7th and the running game ranked 13th. Derek Anderson continues to rank 4th in the NFL in passing DPAR (75.5), while the offensive line has risen to 8th in both Adjusted Line Yards (4.36) and Adjusted Sack Rate (4.2%). In the last two games, the Browns offense has seemed to lose a little bit of its dominance, but remember, they were facing the teams who now rank 1st and 6th in defensive DVOA, respectively.

This week, they'll face the team ranking 23rd in defensive DVOA. The Texans have the league's 24th-best pass D and the 26th-best run D. Houston's biggest problem on defense has been stopping #1 receivers; they rank 25th in that department with a DVOA of 26.0%. And Derek Anderson should have plenty of time to look for the open receiver, as the Texans rank 29th in Adjusted Sack rate, recording a sack on only 4.7% of passing plays. Advantage: Browns

Texans offense vs. Browns defense:

           HOU offense  CLE defense
total DVOA    -0.8%        15.9%
passing       10.9%        31.1%
rushing      -14.1%        -2.7%

The Browns rank 29th in defensive DVOA, the passing defense ranking 30th, and the run defense ranking 19th. The biggest problems for the secondary have been stopping tight ends (34.8% DVOA) and "other" receivers (26.1%); meanwhile, the team records a sack on only 4.6% of passing plays, to rank 30th in the NFL.

The Texans have been about average on offense (ranking 19th in DVOA), but their passing attack has been vastly more successful (ranking 13th; the running game ranks 23rd). Furthermore, the Texans have had the second-most consistent offense in the NFL, with a DVOA variance of only 2.1%, so we ought to know what we're getting. Part of their problem has been turning the ball over: their .238 turnovers per drive ranks them last in the entire NFL. A lot of that has been due to their extreme fumblosis; their .114 fumbles per drive also ranks last. But they have thrown their fair share of interceptions, too (.124 per drive), ranking 28th. On the flip side, quarterback Matt Schaub has racked up 35.4 passing DPAR (14th in the league) and been 18.5% better than average on a per-play basis (to rank 15th). #1 receiver Andre Johnson has missed a lot of time, having sat out Weeks 3 through 10, but his receiving DVOA of 49.0% is amazing nonetheless; it would rank him 3rd in the league among WRs if he had enough playing time to qualify. Advantage: Texans

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns    Texans
total DVOA                8.7%      2.0%
FG kicking               -0.7       6.2
CLE kickoff vs. HOU KR    2.9       2.6
CLE KR vs. HOU kickoff   29.4       3.4
CLE punt vs. HOU PR      -1.3       1.1
CLE PR vs. HOU punt       1.8      -6.0

All hail our new overlords, the Browns kickoff return team! Kribbs' Krazies have now accounted for more points than any single special teams unit on record (ie: since 1996). And that's in only 10 games! I am dead serious when I say that the current Browns KR team is probably the greatest individual special teams unit in history. Their dominance has been enough to rank the Browns #1 in the NFL in overall special teams DVOA, despite the other four units performing at or near league average. The Texans rank 12th in overall DVOA, but what you're really wanting to know is that they are tied for 8th in kicking off. Not that they'll be able to stop our man Josh. Advantage: Browns

In conclusion, the Browns are better than the Texans. Don't be surprised to witness a high-scoring game, and don't be surprised to find me whooping it up in the stands. See you there!

Wow. Just... wow. Normally, I'd write some kind of intro evaluating the Browns' overall performance, but today, all I feel like writing is one of our patented lists:

Top 10 Craziest Finishes in New Browns History

This list will attempt to rank the craziest finishes in New Browns history, regardless of whether the outcomes were good or bad. It's like the absolute value of crazy. I don't want to say that another franchise can't match this list in terms of total craziness, because my memory isn't that good and I don't follow any other teams that closely. But I would be shocked if another team can put up a top 10 from the last decade that is anywhere near as crazy as this one.

10. November 7, 2004 at Baltimore. With 30 seconds left in the game and the Browns trailing by 7, Jeff Garcia's 5-yard pass finds Aaron Shea in the endzone, only to have the ball bounce off Shea's hands due to a suspicious pass interference-like maneuver by Ray Lewis (there was no flag). Ed Reed grabs the deflection and runs it back 106 yards. Ravens win by 14.
9. September 17, 2000 vs. Pittsburgh. Trailing by 3 but well within field goal range, the Steelers' mad scramble to get a kick off before the final whistle takes one second too long, and the New Browns record their first ever home win. It is later revealed that the officials screwed up; the game clock should have been stopped for a certain period of time (because the Browns had recorded a sack on the previous play). Ohhhhh well!
8. September 29, 2002 at Pittsburgh. First the Browns have their would-be game winning field goal blocked in overtime. Then Alvin "Mount" McKinley blocks the Steelers' would-be game winner. But wait! An obscure rule allows the Steelers to keep possession (something about the ball being recovered by Pittsburgh behind the original line of scrimmage). The next attempt sails through, and the Steelers win.
7. September 22, 2002 at Tennessee. With three minutes to go, the Browns trail the Titans, 28-14. Two Tim Couch TD passes and one pooched onside kick later, they're headed to overtime. The Browns eventually win it on a Dawson field goal, 31-28.
6. December 8, 2002 at Jacksonville. Quincy Morgan catches an unbelievable 50-yard Hail Mary pass from Tim Couch with no time left on the clock, as the Browns win 21-20.
5. October 31, 1999 at New Orleans. Kevin Johnson catches an unbelievable 56-yard Hail Mary pass from Tim Couch with no time left on the clock, as the New Browns win for the first time ever, 21-16.
4. November 19, 2007 at Baltimore. You might remember this one as "The Game That Just Happened Yesterday."
3. December 16, 2001 vs. Jacksonville. Trailing by five with about a minute to go, Tim Couch hits Quincy Morgan for a first down deep in Jaguars territory. Characteristically, Morgan fumbles the catch, but recovers the ball himself. The Browns immediately spike the ball to prevent the possibility of a replay challenge. However, the official claims his replay buzzer had been pressed just prior to the snap. The play is declared an incomplete pass, causing thousands of beer bottles to miraculously rain down from the heavens. The officials rule the game over with 48 seconds still on the clock, only to have the commissioner demand the final kneel-down take place... about a half an hour later.
2. September 8, 2002 vs. Kansas City. The Browns, leading by 2, seem to sack Trent Green in Chiefs territory as time expires. Dwayne Rudd throws his helmet in celebration. But wait! Green wasn't sacked—the ball somehow ended up in lineman John Tait's hands. Thus, Rudd's celebration garners a penalty, which requires one more snap (the game can't end on a penalty). Because Tait somehow managed to rumble 28 yards into Browns territory, the final snap is an easy field goal for the Chiefs, who go on to win by 1. This game might actually have had the craziest finish in NFL history; that is, if it weren't for...
1. November 4, 2001 at Chicago. The Browns lead the Bears by 14 points with 32 seconds left to go, when Chicago scores a touchdown, then recovers an onside kick. On the last play of regulation, the Browns manage to tip Shane Matthews' 34-yard Hail Mary pass in the endzone, only to watch it sail into the hands of James Allen for a game-tying touchdown. In overtime, safety Mike Brown picks off a Tim Couch pass and runs it back for the Bears win. I don't believe we'll ever again see a team win after trailing by 14 with 32 seconds to go.

Well, there you have it. Now let's get to the regular items. Brohaim?

Play of the Week

Alex says: Phil Dawson's game-tying field goal as time expired was surely the wackiest play of the game and the highlight with the most staying power. But if it wasn't for Derek Anderson's desperation pass to Braylon Edwards with eleven seconds left, Dawson wouldn't have even taken the field. During the throw, Anderson was being pulled down from behind by Antwan Barnes and flinged what seemed to be a doomed pass. Somehow the ball fell between two Ravens and into Braylon's hands, leaving just enough time for a miraculous kick.

Corey says: I'll go with Brodney Pool's 100-yard interception return, as it showcased excellent play on two fronts: there was of course Pool's super-speedy run down the sideline, but there was also Sean Jones' menacing QB pressure on the safety blitz, which forced a wobbly throw, and made the whole sequence possible. This may have been the single biggest play, in terms of its effect on the outcome of the game, that we've seen all year from the Browns defense.

Player of the Week

Alex says: While recognition will go to Phil Dawson for coming through in the clutch twice, Josh Cribbs had an amazing game, even though he didn't make it to the end zone this week. In seven kickoff returns and four punt returns, Josh gained 305 yards. As far as I can tell, this is the second-highest such total in NFL history, to Tyrone Hughes's 347 yards on October 23, 1994.

But wait, there's more! I also found out this week that Cribbs has a YouTube account, under the name of "jcofdc." He's only posted three videos so far, but here's my favorite, featuring Josh and wife Maria doing the Soulja Boy dance. If you're doubting that it's really Cribbs, notice that he makes the "JC" hand sign at the beginning of the video:



Boy, they really supermanned that ho! Am I right?

Corey says: Overall, the pass defense still wasn't as sharp as we'd like it to be, but for once, the front seven did apply some good pressure on Kyle Boller (how bad is the 'Morons' offensive line?). My Player of the Week is Robaire Smith, who recorded two monster sacks in the second half of the game: one a 14-yard loss on 1st-and-10 with Baltimore at the Browns' 21 yard line, and the other, later on the same drive, an 8-yard loss on 3rd-and-5 with the Ravens at the Browns' 8 yard line. Really, the whole front seven deserves credit for disrupting Boller's passing, but no one stands out (the official scorer at M&T Bank Stadium, it seems, is extremely stingy about crediting players with QB pressure—only tackles).

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"I wouldn't begin to try to explain what happened at the end of the game. I'll leave that to those that think they know better. So you can save your questions with regards to it, because I have no clue what just happened in terms of the ruling and why they did what they did. I'm sure they'll explain it and I'll get the appropriate memo later in the week." —Offensive Genius Brian Billick

After being on the losing side of many wacky endgames as a Browns fan, I can understand any Ravens fan's complaints with the ruling. But, after looking at the replay and using some common sense, a rational person would have to conclude that the field goal should've counted. If the same thing had happened with Matt Stover, I too would eventually say the field goal was good. As Baltimore's coach, it's safe to assume that Billick is a Ravens fan. But his playing dumb is so paper thin, you can see his exasperation with the officials almost dripping out his mouth. Billick's pre-post-game-interview speech is childish and self-righteous to the point of being laughable.

Corey says:

"I went to the officials and said, 'It hit the curved bar! It hit the curved bar!' I couldn't think of the words 'support post.' I was a little unprepared for the situation." —Phil Dawson

Curved bar, support post... from now on, it's the Dawson Bar. Fair enough?

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: In the fourth quarter, the world as we know it shattered to a million pieces. Lining up for a forty-eight-yard field goal, Ryan Pontbriand's snap to holder Dave Zastudil was seemingly high. The D-Zast-er aborted the play and was tackled for a three-yard loss. Everyone immediately placed the blame on Pontbriand. It was his snap that had pulled Zastudil out of his stance, right? Could Pontbriand's fabled perfect-snap streak have come to a close? If you ask me, the answer is no. It's impossible to tell without asking the coaches, but I think that the Browns were going to attempt a pooch punt—M&T is notoriously punishing to kicks. The snap should've gone directly to Dawson, but unfortunately, Dawson forgot to tell Pontbriand the play-call, who assumed everything was business as usual. So, Pontbriand snapped to an unsuspecting Zastudil, who was already getting out of his stance since he wouldn't be holding at all. Hence, a snap that wasn't that high in reality but pulled the holder out of his crouch. Your scapegoat: not Ryan Pontbriand. Hooray!

Corey says: Alex, you forgot the part about the Ravens coaches using spy technology to disrupt the Browns' playcalling from behind the grassy knoll. Anyway, my Special Teams Moment of the Week, despite several worthy Josh Cribbs kickoff returns, is the fateful 51-yard field goal that sent the game to overtime, courtesy Le Fils d'Awesome: Phil Dawson. Until we see a field goal bounce off the first row of bleacher seats and back through the uprights onto the field of play, there may never again be a wackier field goal attempt.

Randy Rich Memorial Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: Tim Carter, the Browns' supposed third wide receiver, finally broke the hundred yard mark this week. In other words, Carter reached 100 receiving yards for the season, after his one catch for ten yards against the Ravens. Congratulations, Tim! As a former second-round draft pick, Carter is an unlikely Obscure Brown, but he's got some definite good things going for him. For example, did you know his wife's name is LeShell? Well, it is! How about that among his many cousins are Gary Sheffield, Dwight Gooden, and Ozzie Newsome? Seriously!

Corey says: I'm going with the newest Obscure Brown, Greg Eslinger, signed this week off of the Broncos' practice squad. Greg is an offensive lineman, meaning we probably won't see him step onto the field for a single moment! However, he is probably now the second greatest current Cleveland athlete born in the state of North Dakota. Congrats, Greg!

Fashion Item of the Week

Alex says: The weather is turning colder and the referees are breaking out their uglier winter gear. I've touched on this before, but I want to keep the issue fresh in reader's minds. They look like they're wearing pajamas out there. And notice that the side piping switches from black to white at their belt. It's horrible, I say. Horrible!

Corey says: I really hate to suggest this, but are our beloved striped socks done for the season? The Browns teased us with them once (in Week 3 against the Raiders) and then have gone all-brown the rest of the way. This is a travesty of the worst kind. Seriously, what—tell me, what—do they see in those awful all-brown socks?

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: After the sixth play of the game, Haloti Ngata punched Joe Thomas in the head. While Ngata was penalized for unnecessary roughness, he should've been thrown out of the game. What constitutes more just grounds for ejection than a sucker punch to the head? I'll tell you what: murder. But other than murder, nothing. So, in conclusion, Ngata should've been ejected and Ray Lewis should be banished from society to the Artic Circle.

Corey says: Everyone associated with the Ravens organization is a huge idiot, obviously. But I don't know how you can top Offensive Genius Brian Billick, whose team has ranked 27th, 21st, 26th, 24th, 26th, 20th, 27th, 14th, and 29th in offensive DVOA during his 9-year career as a head coach. So yeah, my Idiot of the Week is... oh, I can't break from tradition! It's Ray Lewis!

Number of the Week

Alex says: Of course, I had to go and use my "305 total return yards" stat up in the Player of the Week section. So, I'll go with 33%, or Willis McGahee's success rate on the ground against the Browns. Looking at his conventional statistics (21 carries for 102 yards and a touchdown), it'd be reasonable to conclude that McGahee had a good game. After all, 4.9 yards per carry is very good. But McGahee had a much more boom-or-bust afternoon. His median carry was only three yards. Subtract his two big runs, of twenty-four and eighteen yards, and his yards per carry drops to 3.2—suddenly not so good. And, strangely enough, McGahee didn't get a single carry on a third or fourth down.

Corey says: We'll have to wait until tomorrow (when the DVOA pages are updated) to know for sure, but the Browns may now have scored more points thanks to their kickoff return team than any team of the last 12 years—and that's with 6 games left to play! As discussed in my game preview, coming into the weekend, the Browns kickoff return team had contributed 25.0 points above league average, needing only 2.7 points to overtake the most valuable special teams unit on record, the 2005 Bills kickoff return team. Seeing as how Cribbs had another pretty good game, I think it's a real possibility that the KR team has moved into the top spot. Again, we'll know tomorrow.

This Week on Josh's Cribbs

Corey says: The latest installment of Josh's Cribbs features an in-depth tour of the home of D'Qwell Jackson and his fiancée. Josh is visiting D'Qwell's house for the first time, so we truly get the grand tour. Not much happens, besides Cribbs making goofy comments about everything in the house, and both Browns players showing their lack of pool-shooting skills. All in all, it was a pretty low-key episode. I'm hoping for something big next week.

Pythagorean Moral Standings

The Browns add to their moral lead with a crushing moral victory over the Baltimorons. The Bengals move into second in the AFC North after morally equaling the Cardinals. And the Steelers suffer a complete moral collapse against the Jets, to fall into third place.

            PMW   PML   pct
Cleveland   8.5   1.5  .850
Cincinnati  5.2   4.8  .520
Pittsburgh  4.8   5.2  .480
Baltimore   0.0  11.0  .000

Next week: The Browns flee to The Cleve for an easy win over the Houston Texans, to be followed by lunch with Little Richard. Join us right here for a complete recap of all the festivities!

What's that, you say? You can't live without another Browns preview? You want to marry this Browns preview? Well then, let's get to it!

Per tradition, the statistics below are taken from Football Outsiders' DVOA reports. A detailed explanation of DVOA can be enjoyed here.

Browns offense vs. Ravens defense:

           CLE offense  BAL defense
total DVOA    13.3%       -15.4%
passing       31.9%         2.4%
rushing       -8.6%       -34.4%

The Browns slip to 8th in offensive DVOA, though the passing attack rises to 5th (the running game falls to 17th). Derek Anderson continues to rank 3rd in passing DPAR (70.2), surpassing Peyton Manning, but being surpassed by Brett Favre. Derek has now more than quadrupled the New Browns record for passing DPAR in a season (Trent Dilfer's 14.9). On a per-play basis, he has been the third-most efficient passer in the NFL (42.7% DVOA), behind Tom Brady and David Garrard.

Starting to become a minor concern is the running game, not because the Browns need it to score points, but because, as we saw in Pittsburgh, they will occasionally need to use it to run out the clock. Like I said, this is a minor concern, since it is passing success that correlates to point-scoring; however, a more efficient running game would help keep the horrible Browns pass defense off the field against opponents looking to mount a late comeback. The Browns rank 17th in rushing DVOA, but 8th (!) in Adjusted Line Yards. Meanwhile Jamal Lewis ranks 42nd out of 45 qualifying running backs in both rushing DPAR (-3.7) and DVOA (-21.6%). I'm not entirely sure what's going on here, but one thing is sure: Lewis is not helping. Simply put, he has been horrible, just as he has been throughout most of his career (yes, you heard me).

Of the teams left on the Browns' schedule, only one has an above-average defense, by DVOA, and that's Baltimore. The 'Morons rank 5th in defensive DVOA; however, the passing defense ranks just 14th, which ought to work out well for the Browns. They struggle especially to cover tight ends (54.0%) and #2 receivers (39.7%). On the flip side, the Ravens' run D does rank #1 in all of football—a year ago, this would mean the Browns would try extra hard to "establish the run" early in the game; hopefully, Rob Chudzinski understands it as a great excuse to focus on the passing game. Advantage: Browns

Ravens offense vs. Browns defense:

           BAL offense  CLE defense
total DVOA   -22.6%        15.3%
passing      -23.5%        32.9%
rushing      -21.3%        -5.3%

The Browns rank 27th in defensive DVOA, with a 30th-ranked passing defense and a 16th-ranked run D. I'm not ready to turn on Crennel and Grantham, the architects of this disaster, quite yet, but my patience is wearing thin. On the one hand, I can understand how injuries have played a role, for example with the absence of D'Qwell Jackson, forcing the team to give more playing time to Willie McGinest (who looks horribly, thoroughly done) than he deserves (and at inside linebacker, where he is perhaps a bit out of his element). But the 2006 defense, which put up some pretty good DVOA ratings, also suffered from massive injuries in the secondary, so I don't know what to believe.

Luckily, the Ravens might have the worst offense of any team the Browns have faced so far. Their total DVOA ranks them 29th (ahead of only the Chiefs, Bears, and 49ers), with a passing game that ranks 27th and a running game that ranks 30th. Steve McNair (passing DVOA of -24.0%) has already been declared out for this game, however, and his replacement, Kyle Boller has a slightly-better DVOA of -16.1%, so the Ravens offense may perform a little bit better than their numbers would suggest. Don't get me wrong—they're still bad. They're even worse than the Browns defense (zing!). Slight advantage: Browns

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns    Ravens
total DVOA                7.3%     -2.6%
FG kicking                0.4       1.7
CLE kickoff vs. BAL KR    2.9       1.4
CLE KR vs. BAL kickoff   25.0       1.1
CLE punt vs. BAL PR      -4.5      -4.4
CLE PR vs. BAL punt       0.3      -8.5

The Browns special teams, with all their eggs in one basket, rank 3rd by DVOA, while the 'Morons rank 21st. The question I'm sure you're dying to ask is, following last week's Cribbs-a-thon, how good is the Browns' kickoff return team? Here's a list of the top-rated KR teams of the DVOA era (1996-2007), measured in points above league average:

team      year  pts/avg
Bills     2005    27.2
Browns    2007    25.0
Texans    2005    22.9
Jets      2007    20.9
Chargers  2001    19.5

In other words, the Browns have scored 25 more points in 2007 than they would have scored if they had a league-average kickoff return unit. That means they are on pace to shatter the 2005 Bills' record. In fact, forget kickoff returning. Here is a list of the most valuable special teams units—period—of the DVOA era:

team       unit    year  pts/avg
Bills    kick ret  2005    27.2
Packers  punt ret  1996    25.9
Browns   kick ret  2007    25.0
Texans   kick ret  2005    22.9
Cowboys  kickoff   1998    21.8

Granted, the Browns KR team probably isn't going to finish the year with the 44.4 points above average that they're currently on pace for, but it's not going to take much for them to finish the season having been the most valuable single special teams unit of the last 12 years, and possibly of all time. Advantage: Browns

So there you have it. The Poopy Diapers, I mean Ravens, will be hard pressed to find a specific area in which they hold an advantage over the Browns. Let's hope the good guys can leverage that into a win. Enjoy the game!

This week, I'm skipping the debate of why the Browns defense has been so bad. I think Corey did a good job outlining possible arguments in this week's preview. But to know for sure what's behind the collapse of the pass defense as an outsider, you'd need coach's film and would have to do a lot of film study. So, for this week, we'll just accept the poor defensive play without debate.

But what happened to the offense? In the second half, they ran 22 non-spike plays and gained 38 yards and two first downs. And even though every reporter will be spouting those statistics (usually a bad sign), I think they're meaningful. The offense should share some of the blame for this week's loss. They're not as culpable as the defense, but juxtapose the ease with which the offense sliced through the Steelers in the first quarter against their struggles in the third. You can't help but be disappointed and upset.

The abominable coverage should remain at the top of the list of things to fix—let's not forget that the Steelers have a great defense. I at least want to know why did things swing so suddenly? The Steelers may have taken away the underneath routes in the second half, but shouldn't the deep routes have been open? The pass protection was there to try for it.

On my arbitrary scale of quality, the defense sucked, the offense as a whole was below average, and the special teams saved everyone else's ass.

Play of the Week

Alex says: Oh, the folly of Ike Taylor. After Braylon's touchdown was initially ruled incomplete, Taylor got all up in Braylon's grill, as the kids would say, and the two exchanged heated words. I imagine Taylor saying something about his superior coverage and the out-of-boundness of Braylon. Too bad the television audience didn't get to see his response following the play's reversal. Who's got the last laugh now, Ike? Er- well, second-to-last laugh!

Corey says: Who am I kidding? The Play of the Week is obviously Josh Cribbs' improbable kickoff return for a touchdown, but since we are going to talk about that play ad nauseum in the coming paragraphs, I'll highlight a different play from yesterday's game. Brodney Pool's interception in the second quarter was most beautiful; Pool jumped out of the scenery to grab the ball just as it was hitting the receiver's hands. Santonio Holmes was all "Hey, wha' happened?" Then Brodney was like, "I don't think so!" and Ben Roethlisberger was like, "I can't do my work!" At which point Robaire Smith exclaimed "I've got a weal wed wagon!"

Player of the Week

Alex says: Without getting into the issue of how much of his success is due to his blockers (see Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week), I wonder how many points Josh "MTV" Cribbs was responsible for this week. His 100-yard touchdown resulted in seven points. But instead of just saying he was worth seven points on that play, I'd like to compare it to what the offense would've done had he accomplished an "average" return. (Basically, I'm just describing kick return DPAR. I should just ask Aaron Schatz for the numbers.) Anyway, after all that build-up, I'm just going to assign a number now. 9.4. Josh Cribbs was worth 9.4 points this week. A new world record!

Corey says: It's a Cribbs sweep! I thought about a couple of other candidates (like offensive linemen), but really, this day belonged to the special teams, among whom there is really only one player that can be singled out, and that's Josh "Josh's" Cribbs (let's see you steal that nickname, Keith Olbermann!). Will this kick returning display (which is sure to catapult the Browns back into the #1 slot in kick returning DPAR) finally thrust Josh far enough into the spotlight to garner him some Pro Bowl votes? The designers of his excellent official site certainly think so.

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"Willie McGinest, a vet on our team, said, 'You want somebody to blame, blame me. I'm strong enough. I can take it.' And at that point, all the team came together and was like, 'Blame me.' I came up. 'Blame me.' That just shows how united we are, how we stand together. If they want to point fingers, blame each other, you can blame me if you want to. Because I thought I could have done other things to spring another return or throw another block or whatever it may be. We all point the finger at ourselves. We all look ourselves in the mirror. We're a team, so we act like it." —Josh Cribbs

Looking past the fact that anyone blaming Josh Cribbs is insane, what other blocks could he have thrown? Was Cribbs ever on the field not as a returner or gunner? Anyway, by the sounds of the post-game locker room atmosphere, I think the 2007 Browns should look to sell the rights to their story to a movie studio.

(Corey adds: I really like this quote. Especially because, if I had to choose one person to blame for this loss, it actually would be Willie McGinest. He's done nothing all year, he's clearly past his prime, and he was repeatedly beaten and/or embarrassed in this game. He would be my Anti-Player of the Week.)

Corey says:

"Guys were coming at me like slow bullets. You know, 'Vooom! Vooom!' You know, I was like, 'Dodge here, dodge here, jumpin' up and...' It was like a video game." —Josh Cribbs

It's a Cribbs sweep! This quote describes returning a kickoff exactly as I have always imagined it. Dodge here, dodge there, press a lot of buttons at once to see what kind of fancy juke moves you can do, hold down turbo, up, up, down, down, left, right, left, right, B, A, start. Also, I am glad to receive confirmation that NFL players do, in fact, witness events in slow motion à la The Matrix.

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: Cribbs's incredible touchdown obviously gets the nod here. Rather than describe how awesome it was (really, really awesome), I'd like to raise the question: how much of Cribbs's success as a kick returner is due to his own awesomeness and how much is due to the Browns' kick return team? Thanks to his highlight reel, Devin Hester is generally considered the N.F.L.'s best returner—despite the Jets and Leon Washington leading the league in kick return DPAR right now. If Hester and Cribbs were to switch places, would their fortunes differ much? That's an impossible question to answer, but I think things would change less than the average fan would expect. Much like how a large percentage of a running back's performance depends on his offensive line, a returner's success is fully dependent on his blockers. The difference between a great back and a good one, behind the same line, is slight. And consequently, I suspect the difference between a great returner and a good one is slight as well.

Corey says: It's a Cribbs sweep! Only, instead of going with the touchdown return, I'm going with the other one—the 90-yarder in the first quarter. The 100-yard return was more improbable and makes for a better highlight, but the 90-yard return is a better example of the Browns kickoff returning machine at work. When everything works right, Cribbs doesn't have to juke a million guys; he just follows his man and then turns on the speed. I love, love, love the Browns special teams!

(Also, regarding Devin Hester, I agree with Alex's argument 100% but would just like to point out that Hester has never been much of a kickoff returner—he is an amazing punt returner. With Cribbs, it's just the opposite. So while Hester may be the most famous returner out there, and deservedly so, he has never been a challenger to Cribbs as the top kickoff returner. That position rightly belongs to the Jets' returners, such as Leon Washington and, in 2006, Justin Miller.)

Chubby Grigg Memorial Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: Back in Week 1, both Corey and I named gunner Mike Adams as the JaJuan Dawson Memorial Obscure Brown of the Week. I asked whether Mike could be "following a long and distinguished line of Browns defensive back gunners, like all-around superstar Leigh Bodden or Obscure Brown of the Week legend Dyshod Carter." I'm still not ready to put Adams, or "Pops" as his website's U.R.L. would have you believe, in the pantheon of 21st-century gunner greats. But he's certainly on track! Go Pops, go!

Corey says: Resuming my "most/least likely to" series from a few weeks ago, this week I'm going to identify the player least likely to have been remembered by me, were I to try to recreate the entire Browns roster from memory. The answer is a guy I completely forgot was still a Brown; honestly, I haven't even seen him playing special teams or partaking in any sideline "whooping it up" all season long. It's third-year linebacker David McMillan! This is only David's second Obscure Brown of the Week recognition ever, which seems really odd, seeing as how he's been on the roster for a full two and a half seasons now, and is about as obscure as they come.

Fashion Item of the Week

Alex says: One of the principles central to the discovery of the color wheel by early colorologists is that yellow and black are an unnatural and hideous combination. Yellow in general kind of sucks. So, while I'm glad I wasn't subjected to this atrocity, having to see Heinz Field's hideous yellow seats over and over brought me no pleasure.

Corey says: Last year, the Browns wore throwbacks during a home game against the Bengals. While it is far from guaranteed they will do so again this year, I decided to look at the upcoming schedule to try to guess when they might don the numbered helmets again. It would obviously be one of the three remaining home games. It probably wouldn't be the last game of the year, though. That leaves 11/25 vs. the Texans and 12/16 vs. the Bills. If I had to bet, my money would be on the Texans game.

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: I'm really sick of Jamal Lewis. This was his worst game as a Brown so far. Of his sixteen carries and three receptions, only six were successful—meaning he gained "40% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, [or] 100% of needed yards on third down." Plus he finished off one of those successes with a fumble. Five times Lewis gained either no yardage or was stuffed behind the line. He's the not big bruiser people think he is and if it wasn't for Hank Fraley's awareness to scoop up Lewis's first fumble, he'd really be the goat this week. Give some carries to Gomillion Wright or Harrison already. They've proven they deserve it.

Corey says: My Idiot of the Week is the Pittsburgh Ketchup Lobby, whose back-door dealings and mob-handed practices have contributed to decades of injustice. I have it on good information that ketchup lobbyists are secretly responsible for the JFK assassination, Mo Vaughn's 1995 MVP award, the cancellation of Arrested Development, The Shot, The Drive, The Fumble, the Vietnam War, the 2007 Jacobs Field Hot Dog Derby scandal, South African Apartheid, and the Browns' loss to the Steelers yesterday. I am officially blowing the whistle on Pittsburgh, the Heinz Corporation, and the condiment of ketchup itself. It is mustard's time to shine, people! And I'm not talking about this yellow crap—I'm talking about brown, stadium mustard. Who's with me?

Number of the Week

Alex says: 4, or the number of sacks the Browns managed this week. I have to give credit where credit is due—the defense did a much better job putting pressure on the quarterback this week. Unfortunately, that didn't turn into a stellar day for the defense. But we can't be sure whether the Steelers would've put up way more points had Roethlisberger had more time in the pocket. On plenty of replays, I saw Santonio Holmes with a couple steps on a corner, only Roethlisberger couldn't make the throw because of pressure. This emergence of pressure—from more defensive back blitzing, I believe—paired with poor pass coverage doesn't mean we can finger the defensive backs completely though. The Steelers have a very good passing offense. They're supposed to be able to score a lot.

Corey says: I offer you a reason to be optimistic. Football Outsiders updates its DVOA ratings on Tuesdays, so I can't give you the most up-to-date figure, but last week (that is, heading into the Pittsburgh game), the Browns had the NFL's 6th-easiest remaining schedule, by DVOA (with an average opponent's DVOA of -11.0%). And that was counting the extremely well-rated Steelers. Now that Pittsburgh is off the table, the Browns may have one of the top 3 or 4 easiest remaining schedules. All seven of the teams left on the schedule currently rank below the Browns. The toughest test left will be Buffalo, who entered the week with a DVOA of -2.1%, but may find its rating lower (or unchanged), after just barely defeating the Dolphins. So while the Browns' hopes of winning the AFC North took a major hit this week, their chances of squeaking out a wild card berth are still quite healthy.

This Week on Josh's Cribbs

Corey says: Episode 9 of America's favorite reality show finds Josh at Berea High School. You see, Josh, like many pro athletes, is an amateur hip-hop artist; in fact he wrote the Josh's Cribbs theme music. Some kids in the Berea High School Band decided to arrange Josh's music for marching band, so naturally, Josh paid them a visit, promising he would go on stage with them at a school meeting and perform an original rap. Unfortunately, the band does not play at Josh's preferred tempo and he is forced to freestyle, which goes embarrassingly badly, but it's okay because no one could hear him over the marching band anyway.

Later, we are told Josh is going to prepare a gourmet dinner for his wife as a surprise. He goes to Giant Eagle, buys all the ingredients on his list, and arranges for Maria to leave the house for a while. Only then do we learn that Josh has hired a professional chef to come to his house and prepare the meal so as to make it look like Josh did all the cooking. Maria returns home and is absolutely floored by the delicious dinner. Josh's plan is foiled however, when the chef, who I guess was just supposed to hide in the other room for the whole rest of the night (?), reveals herself, saying "Josh, I really have to go home now...". Maria is once again floored, and Josh is left with egg on his face. In the end, both of this episode's storylines left Josh looking somewhat foolish, which made for a slightly awkward, though amusing, viewing experience.

Pythagorean Moral Standings

Browns good; Steelers bad. Ravens terrible; Bengals not as bad.

            PMW   PML   pct
Cleveland   7.5   1.5  .833
Pittsburgh  4.8   4.2  .533
Cincinnati  4.7   4.3  .522
Baltimore   0.0  10.0  .000

Next week: Get out your murder weapons, 'cause the Browns are going to Baltimore! They'll be looking to beat the stuffing out of the Ravens for the first time since Week 4. And we'll be here to discover the incriminating evidence on the next chilling edition of Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns!

This week's game is unquestionably the Browns' toughest test on the remaining schedule. The Steelers are only ranked 4th in the NFL by overall DVOA (36.1%), but that has a lot to do with the fact that the Patriots, Colts, and Cowboys are having historically good years. The Steelers' current overall DVOA actually makes them the 15th best team of the DVOA era (that is, the last 12 years). In other words, in a normal year, there's a pretty good chance they would be #1 in the NFL right now.

Anyway, all statistics herein are borrowed from Football Outsiders' weekly DVOA reports. A detailed explanation of how DVOA works can be found here.

Now, who's ready for the longest Browns preview I've ever written?

Browns offense vs. Steelers defense:

           CLE offense  PIT defense
total DVOA    13.1%       -23.0%
passing       27.1%       -23.3%
rushing       -3.1%       -22.6%

Another good game has elevated the Browns' offensive rank to 7th, according to DVOA. The passing game ranks 6th in the NFL, while the running game ranks 13th. The offensive line has risen to 11th in Adjusted Sack Rate (allowing a sack on 5.0% of passing plays, although that number would be in the 3% range if we threw out the Charlie Frye Debacle), and 9th in Adjusted Line Yards (suggesting that the Browns' success in the rushing department is due more to the offensive line than to the backs). The Browns' rushing attempts are still ridiculously better when running left (5.66 ALY left end, 4.65 left tackle) than when running right (2.58 right end, 4.03 right tackle), which further suggests that we are seeing the influence of some strong offensive linemen.

Meanwhile, Derek Anderson ranks third in the NFL in passing DPAR, behind Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. That doesn't make him the third-best QB in the league, but it does mean he has had the third-most success so far in 2007. Derek has racked up 60.5 DPAR through the air, though there are five QBs who are extremely close behind (Palmer, Brees, Romo, Favre, Garcia).

Of course, he's going to have his toughest test this week, as the Steelers possess the league's #2 defense by DVOA (trailing only Tennessee). And Pittsburgh rates equally well at stopping the pass (3rd) and stopping the run (3rd). That isn't to suggest the Steelers' D can't be taken advantage of. They rank 1st in the NFL in defensive DVOA variance (13.2%), meaning they have been the least consistent defense in the NFL in 2007.

Pittsburgh's defensive success obviously depends on pressuring the QB, especially through the use of confusion and big blitzing. The Steelers rank 2nd in the NFL in defensive Adjusted Sack Rate, recording a sack on 8.8% of passing plays. The flip side is that they leave themselves extremely vulnerable to offenses who are capable of picking up the blitz. The Steelers' secondary has always been a little suspect, and they currently rank only 19th in defending passes to #1 receivers (11.2% DVOA), 23rd in defending passes to #2 receivers (23,9%), and 23rd in defending passes to tight ends (31.6%). Clearly, their M.O. is to ensure that the QB doesn't get a chance to attempt those passes in the first place. For that reason, the most important players for the Browns this week (besides Derek Anderson, of course) may be Jamal Lewis and Jason Gomillion Wright, who will be charged with picking up the extra blitzer on most of the Browns' passing plays. In summary, yes, the Steelers defense can definitely be beaten, but they can just as easily reign tyranny upon the Browns in a manner most foul (in other words... what we're used to). Advantage: Steelers

Steelers offense vs. Browns defense:

           PIT offense  CLE defense
total DVOA    13.6%        18.5%
passing       31.1%        36.4%
rushing       -0.1%        -2.8%

Another bad game has dropped the Browns' defensive rank to 30th, according to DVOA. Somehow, the defense (and special teams) played poorly enough against Seattle to lower the Browns' overall team DVOA, despite the fact they won the game (either that, or other teams' performances caused the system to re-evaluate the Browns' previous rating—but I digress). Thus, we'll have to wait until another day to celebrate breaking into "positive numbers". Sufficed to say, the Browns defense is not helping matters, especially with their inability to stop the pass. The passing D ranks 31st in the NFL, while the run D ranks 18th. A look at the Browns' DVOA vs. each type of receiving target sheds a little bit of light on the problem:

                  DVOA  rank
#1 receivers     10.7%   18
#2 receivers     23.5%   22
other receivers  27.1%   28
tight ends       30.4%   22
running backs    -4.1%   16

Until you get to the "running backs" category, it certainly looks like the further you get down the depth chart, the poorer the coverage has been. If we assume that Leigh Bodden is matching up on "#1 receivers" more than anyone else, we can conclude that, while he is by no means living up to his all-star performances of the past 3 seasons, he is far from the biggest culprit here. The other DBs have just been plain terrible. The Browns have a depth problem, and I, for one, have no explanation for it. Eric Wright is a rookie, yes, but he alone doesn't account for the change.

Remember that last year, pass defense was the team's biggest strength. Presumably, the system and schemes are the same. Maybe we're just seeing a bunch of guys having down years at the same time (possible). Maybe the league has "figured out" the Crennel/Grantham defense (unlikely). I would suggest that the pass rush has gotten weaker and that the effects are trickling down into the secondary, but the numbers say that's not the case (the 2006 pass rush was about as bad as it gets). I have no answers.

The Steelers offense represents a big challenge, as they rank 6th in the NFL, a wee smidge ahead of the vaunted offensive juggernaut I like to call "the Cleveland Browns". Like the Browns offense (in fact, like all successful offenses), the Steelers are doing it through the air. They rank 5th in passing DVOA, and 10th in rushing DVOA. This does not bode well for the Browns, whose best hope is that the Steelers mimic the Seahawks, rushing up the middle in obvious passing situations.

A bit surprisingly, the man the Browns need to be most concerned about is not Hines Ward, whose receiving numbers are decent (5.3 DPAR, 4.8% DVOA), but Santonio Holmes, whose receiving DVOA (54.6%) ranks him 2nd among all wideouts (behind Randy Moss). Holmes ranks 7th in receiving DPAR (17.3) despite being targeted only 37 times. Similarly, Heath Miller ranks 3rd among tight ends in receiving DVOA (46.6%), but 6th in DPAR because he's only been targeted 31 times. All things considered, I just don't see the Browns defense shutting down the Steelers' passing game without some kind of miraculous, genie-intervention-involving return to the levels of last year's secondary. (Let's just hope the game turns into a shootout...) Huge advantage: Steelers

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns   Steelers
total DVOA                4.5%     -0.5%
FG kicking                1.7       5.2
CLE kickoff vs. PIT KR    3.1       5.3
CLE KR vs. PIT kickoff   14.3      -3.6
CLE punt vs. PIT PR      -6.6      -6.6
CLE PR vs. PIT punt       0.8      -1.7

The Browns special teams continue to slip down the rankings, now 8th in the NFL, according to DVOA. The Steelers, meanwhile, rank 16th—a huge improvement over previous years, but still not quite in the Browns' league. Pittsburgh's specialest of teams are the field goal kicking unit, which ranks 3rd in the NFL, and the kick returning unit, which ranks 7th (and will be facing off against the Browns' 10th-ranked kickoff unit). The Steelers' weaknesses are punt returning, at which they rank dead last in the NFL (lucky for them—the Browns' punt team ranks 29th), and kicking off, at which they rank 23rd (lucky for us—the Browns rank 2nd at returning kickoffs). The mismatch in the kick returning department is a particular one that the Browns can exploit. And they're probably going to need to make up lots of ground in the realm of special teams, so... go, Cribbs, go! Advantage: Browns

The fact of the matter is, the Browns may be one game out of first place, but the Steelers are still way, way better. The one hope we Browns fans can cling to is that Pittsburgh, for all its success, is the most inconsistent team in the NFL—that is, they mix some honkers in with their dominating victories. The Cardinals and Broncos (both in the bottom 12 in DVOA) each beat the Steelers, so of course, the Browns can. They're just going to need the Steelers to help them out a little.

In closing, go Browns.

I'm sorry "Born and Raised" is so late this week. It is entirely the fault of a vast conspiracy of anti-Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times radicals, among them the Pittsburgh Ketchup Lobby, the U.S. government, the woman on the horse, the guy with the hose, and that damned Lloyd Braun!

Anyway, the Browns played a heck of a game, once again. The offense is playing better than any Browns offense in decades, thanks to the tremendous success of the passing game. All the components of the passing attack are clicking right now: the play-calling is excellent, the protection is near-perfect, the receivers are playing great, and the quarterback is executing. As a result, who knows, we may see Derek Anderson in the Pro Bowl this season!

The defense remains a concern, especially the pass defense. Granted, they only surrendered 23 points this week, which is a step in the right direction, but Seattle, like previous Browns opponents, was pretty much able to pass for a first down whenever they wanted. The only times the Browns defense got stops were when the Seahwaks (foolishly) tried to run the ball on 3rd or 4th down.

Taking all facets of the team into account, the Browns are currently better than they've been at any time since 1999, and that includes 2002, when they finished 9-7, but actually, weren't that good (-0.2% DVOA). The 2007 Browns had an overall DVOA of 0.0% heading into this game, so when this week's DVOA rankings are published, we're sure to find they've graduated into—dare I say it?—positive numbers! Break out the champagne!

Play of the Week

Alex says: When the Browns scored their final touchdown, they needed a two-point conversion to tie the game. With a good line and powerful back like Jamal Lewis, you'd expect them to line up in a goal-line formation and pound it in. However, the Browns spread it out. The Seahawks sent a corner blitzing, though he came right in front of Anderson's face. Anderson saw it and was able to throw the ball falling away from the blitzer to Joe Jurevicius. Another corner was draped all over Jurevicius's back, but he was able to use his body to block the defender from the flight of the ball and make the contested catch. And despite the no-call, there were pretty solid grounds for a defensive pass interference penalty. With everything on the line, Jurevicius made a fantastic play.

Corey says: While it wasn't the most acrobatic of plays, it might have been the most important, in terms of affecting the outcome: the Browns defense's excellent stand on 4th-and-inches in overtime. Sean Jones came flying in off the right side and was able to trip Maurice Morris up in the backfield. What a beautiful sight it was! Watching the Browns defenders race off the field following that miraculous hold reminded me a little of the famous goal line stand in Week 17 of 2002, in which the Falcons failed to score on a 1st-and-goal opportunity, thus sending the Browns to the pancakes. I mean playoffs.

Player of the Week

Alex says: We're starting to sound like a broken record. Derek Anderson is good, but let's not forget the offensive line. The line was dominant in pass blocking, especially the left side of Joe Thomas and Eric Steinbach, as always. However, though Corey and I would usually have something to say about Anderson being good but still making a few stupid mistakes or putting little touch on his throws, I now think that Anderson is legitimately maturing from week to week. His interception was avoidable, sure, but not chuck-it-into-triple-coverage stupid. Anderson's yardage and completion numbers are good, but how much better would they be if Edwards and Winslow hadn't made so many costly drops, particularly in the end zone? What I'm trying to say is that Anderson is no longer just benefiting from a good line and smart play-calling. He's actually playing like a top quarterback.

Corey says: Alex, how can you say we're starting to sound like a broken record? We at the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times are nothing if not constantly changing our minds and disagreeing with each other. Anyway, my Player of the Week is Derek Anderson. I have to admit, I was very skeptical of his early success this season, not only because of his track record, but because all his great throws were followed up by horrible ones. Well, it's starting to look like his 2007 numbers are legitimate. With each game, Anderson makes fewer of the mistakes that used to characterize him. What I'm trying to say is that Anderson is no longer just benefiting from a good line and smart play-calling. He's actually playing like a top quarterback.

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"Halloween isn't over until Homer Simpson screams 'D-O.'" —Sam Rosen

This came from, of course, an in-game promo for the latest Treehouse of Horror special and instead of "D-O," the script called for Rosen to mimic Homer's trademark "D'oh!" I just want to know, how out of touch is Sam Rosen? The Simpsons has been on the air for something like 20 years now and he still hasn't heard of "D'oh"? Homer is a cultural icon! Not to mention that Rosen has been working for Fox for more than a decade. The biggest show on the network that employs him, and he doesn't know the most quotable catch phrase of the nineties?

Corey says:

"If you want to say the P-word, meaning Pittsburgh, yeah, that's fine, because we have to start thinking about them the minute we walk out of here. But don't be using that P-word yet meaning playoffs, OK? We've got a way to go yet before we can start thinking about that." —Sean Jones

Oh, so it's okay to start talking about Pittsburgh now? Good. what about Houston? You play them in three weeks. No—off limits? Huh. Well, anyway, I was only using that P-word meaning pancakes. Mmmm. Mmmm mmm! I could really go for some pancakes.

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: It'd be hard to pass up Phil Dawson's game-winning field goal. Just before he took the field, Fox showed the factoid that his last game winner was on December 3, 2006 against Kansas City. How does this matter at all? Kickers have so few opportunities to kick a game-winning field goal, some may not get one for a whole season! Am I supposed to worry that Dawson may be rusty on his game-winning fundamentals? Don't forget, it's almost been a year.

Corey says: Meh. I hate when kickers get credit for game-winning field goals. (Same way I hate when running backs get credit for 1-yard touchdown runs that cap off 90-yard drives.) What would you have estimated were Phil's chances of making that kick? 95%? Higher? It's just not that hard to do. The fact that Dawson missed an extra point early in the game is a much stronger negative indicator of his performance than the game-winning field goal is a positive indicator. All in all, it was a pretty bad day for the special teams. The best play they put together was probably Josh Cribbs' 38-yard kick return in the first quarter.

Dave Yovanovits Memorial Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: Practice squad tight end Richard Angulo is so obscure, he doesn't even get a jersey number! He also went to an obscure football factory, Western New Mexico University! And he's a Mustardian tight end—6'8" 266 lbs! Now that's my kind of Obscure Brown. Sadly, he has no awesome middle name, but we will accept him as if he did.

Corey says: The newest Brown, signed last week off the waiver wire, is obscure enough to qualify, though you may remember him from such teams as "the Steelers." He is defensive back Ricardo Colclough (rhymes with "folk lee"), and he's taken Ted Washington's roster spot after the big guy went on injured reserve. Originally a second-round draft pick out of Tusculum College, Colclough was a full-fledged, card-carrying member of the Pittsburgh secondary as recently as eight days ago. Could it be a coincidence that the Browns' next opponent is... the Steelers? Alex thinks I'm reading too much into it, but I happen to think the strategy of picking up someone who was recently cut by your upcoming opponent is pretty brilliant. Colclough's not going to be able to teach Rob Chudzinski and Derek Anderson how to tell exactly which Steelers will be blitzing on which plays, but he may be able to give them some valuable insights as to what schemes they call in what situations, etc. Certainly, his presence on the Browns will force the Steelers to alter their gameplan. Considering Pittsburgh will already be preparing on a short timeframe (because of an appearance on Monday Night Football), this could prove to be an advantage for the Browns.

Fashion Item of the Week

Alex says: Bwahahaha

Corey says: You may laugh, Alex, but it was Charlie Frye's invaluable insight into the Browns playbook that held the Browns' scoring total to 33 points, instead of (by my calculations) 124.6. Also, Frye smartly wore a parka with the hood up for most of the game, which kept the Browns fans seated behind him from knowing (or remembering) who he was. That Frye, he's crafty.

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: After his punt return touchdown (which was only possible due to numerous flagrant penalties), Nate Burleson pantomimed LeBron's pre-game routine of pouring talcum powder in his hands, clapping a couple claps, and making a powder explosion. Burleson claims to be a Cavaliers fan and wanted to give a shout-out to LeBron, but it wouldn't matter whether Burleson is from Akron proper (he's from Seattle). You can't go into another city and impersonate the other city's idol without it being mockery. It's simply impossible. Otherwise, if Burleson is supporting LeBron during the game, it's like he's supporting Cleveland. And then it's like he's supporting the Browns, which can't happen. So, Nate Burleson: idiot.

Corey says: Far be it for me to criticize a Browns opponent for employing poor strategy, but my Idiot of the Week is Mike Holmgren. This seemed like a very poorly-coached game for the Seahawks. Holmgren had all of Seattle crying into its Jones Soda with his insistence on rushing up the middle in several of the game's most crucial situations, despite the fact that the Browns defense was clearly going to allow the Seahawks receivers to get wide open at any time. Also, the Browns repeatedly punished the Seahawks for their decision to let Lofa Tatupu cover Kellen Winslow. If teams haven't figured out by now that Kellen Winslow is essentially another wide receiver, they don't deserve to win.

Number of the Week

Alex says: God, this is a cop-out, but anyway… 0, or the number of non-ironic "BRA-DY" chants since Week 1. The emergence of Derek Anderson has almost washed the existence of Brady Quinn from my memory. Remember in the preseason when everyone thought Quinn should be starting already? Oh, those were the days. Anyway, I'm glad this isn't getting much press since it'd be a distraction for the team, but what is the team going to do with Anderson after this season? They've made a large investment in Quinn and I expect they'll want him to be the starter in 2008. Anderson likely wouldn't move back to the bench after proving himself. He's a restricted free agent, so maybe some QB-starved team will give up a second-round pick to sign him. At the end of training camp, could you imagine that the Browns could swing a sixth- and second-round pick for Frye and Anderson by 2008?

Corey says: 13.1, or Derek Anderson's total DPAR for this game. It wasn't quite his best game of the season, as you can see below (these numbers are approximate, as the opponent adjustments reflect what we knew about those teams at the time):

            pass DPAR  rush DPAR
Wk 6 (MIA)    14.6        1.7
Wk 2 (CIN)    14.5        0.0
Wk 9 (SEA)    12.2        0.9
Wk 8 (STL)    11.5        0.0
Wk 4 (BAL)     4.3       -0.4
Wk 5 (NE)      2.6        0.0
Wk 1 (PIT)     0.5        0.0
Wk 3 (OAK)     0.3        1.6

It was, however, his best game so far against a good defense. Derek's had four great games so far, and only this one was against a good defense.

This Week on Josh's Cribbs

Corey says: Episode 8 of Josh's Cribbs finds our hero visiting several area haunted houses in celebration of Halloween. Josh is joined by his wife Maria, teammate Ethan Kelley, and his wife, Antoinette. Josh spends the entire time bragging about how he wasn't scared, while Ethan tries to convince us that Josh was, in fact, scared. All in all, this was probably my least favorite episode yet. Not that I'm complaining—there just wasn't that much action.

Pythagorean Moral Standings

The Browns cruised to yet another convincing moral victory this week, and are still on pace to record the 16-0 moral record that just barely eluded them last year. Elsewhere, the Steelers demoralized the hapless Ravens like so many delicious, delicious pancakes. And the Bengals were screaming "D-O!" as they suffered a minor moral setback, losing to the Buffalo Bills.

            PMW   PML   pct
Cleveland   6.8   1.2  .850
Pittsburgh  4.5   3.5  .563
Cincinnati  3.7   4.3  .463
Baltimore   0.0   9.0  .000

Next week: The Browns crush the Pittsburgh Steelers so mightily, all the Steelers players will retire, all the Steelers fans in attendance will commit themselves to an insane asylum, the Heinz corporation will go bankrupt, the color yellow will be removed from the spectrum of visible light, and The Fish That Saved Pittsburgh will be banned from cable reruns forever. Join us, won't you, as we recap this glorious event, on another "Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns!"

Hey Cleveland, it's Corey. Of the teams remaining on the Browns' schedule, only Pittsburgh rates higher than the Seahawks, according to DVOA. Are the Browns up to the challenge? Let's preview.

As always, statistics are borrowed from Football Outsiders' weekly DVOA reports. A detailed explanation of how DVOA works can be found here.

Browns offense vs. Seahawks defense:

           CLE offense  SEA defense
total DVOA    10.3%        -5.6%
passing       24.1%        -4.1%
rushing       -4.7%        -7.4%

The emergence of the Browns passing game makes me very, very happy. They rank 7th in passing DVOA, which accounts for the offense's overall rank of 11th. Not surprisingly, Derek Anderson ranks 4th (more or less) in passing DPAR, with 36.7. Here are the top passing seasons in New Browns history, by DPAR:

Anderson  2007  48.2
Dilfer    2005  14.9
Holcomb   2004  13.7
Holcomb   2002  12.4
Garcia    2004  11.2

For Derek Anderson not to finish 2007 having racked up the most single-season passing DPAR of any New Brown, he would basically have to replicate Spergon Wynn's legendary 2000 campaign twice over the course of the final 9 games. Here are the current all-time standings for New Browns passing DPAR:

Anderson  39.7
Holcomb   33.0
Dilfer    14.9
Garcia    11.2
Detmer     8.4
McCown   -20.0
Pederson -21.1
Wynn     -21.2
Frye     -32.8
Couch    -64.9

So basically, Anderson is extremely likely to finish 2007 as the New Browns' all-time passing champion. It's exhilarating and depressing at the same time!

But enough about that. Let's talk about the Seattle defense. Just like the Browns offense, they rank 11th by DVOA. And they are balanced, stopping the pass (10th) and the run (11th) about equally well. When the Browns take to the air, they'd do well to find Kellen Winslow—Seattle ranks 28th in stopping passes to tight ends (44.3% DVOA). Seattle is also 28th in stopping passes to "other" receivers (37.1%), but they do an excellent job containing #1s (-25.6%, 6th) and #2s (-2.9%, 12th). So it may not be Braylon's best week.

One thing that concerns me slightly is that, while Charlie Frye was not capable of leading the Browns offense in any competent fashion, he probably knows the playbook about as well as anyone on Earth not currently employed by the Cleveland Browns. Obviously, the Browns are aware of this, so hopefully they will try to throw some surprises into the gameplan. But it will certainly have its effect. This is already a matchup of strength on strength; I'll say Slight advantage: Browns

Seahawks offense vs. Browns defense:

           SEA offense  CLE defense
total DVOA    -2.5%        17.9%
passing       12.5%        34.4%
rushing      -21.4%        -0.9%

Seattle has struggled a bit on offense, ranking 18th overall. The passing game has been fine (ranking 12th), but the 30th-ranked running game has completely fallen apart, thanks to a weak offensive line. The receivers to watch out for are Bobby Engram (27.4% DVOA) and Deion Branch (22.3%). Tight end Marcus Pollard has also been great (32.4%). #2 receiver Nate Burleson has been absolutely terrible (-30.9%).

The Browns defense still has not shown signs of improvement—remember that last week, they faced one of the worst offenses in football. Overall, they rank 29th in the NFL, but the passing defense ranks an alarming 31st (the run D ranks 18th). Against Seattle, it's going to be even harder to lock down those receiving targets than in weeks past, so the onus really falls on the front seven to take advantage of the weak offensive line. Advantage: Seahawks

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns   Seahawks
total DVOA                7.6%      9.4%
FG kicking                2.6       5.5
CLE kickoff vs. SEA KR    2.4       5.7
CLE KR vs. SEA kickoff   13.4       7.8
CLE punt vs. SEA PR       0.9       6.2
CLE PR vs. SEA punt       0.3      -1.1

The Browns rank 3rd in special teams DVOA, but the Seahawks rank 2nd. The marquee matchup will be the #1 kickoff return team in the NFL (Browns) against the #2 kickoff team (Seahawks). The other matchups, however, tend to favor Seattle, which is more balanced than the Browns. Their punt return team ranks 4th in the league, their kickoff return team ranks 5th, and they have enjoyed the 2nd-best field goal kicking. Advantage: Seahawks

This game is going to be one of the Browns' toughest challenges of the season. That doesn't mean they won't win it. I can't wait!