Since the dawn of civilization, man has yearned to preview the matchup between the Browns and the Ravens in Week 4 of the 2007 NFL season. So let's make it count!

As always, stats in this preview come from Football Outsiders' weekly DVOA ratings. Unfortunately, it's still about a week too early for Football Outsiders to publish genuine DVOA (they need a sample size of at least four weeks before they can incorporate the all-important opponent adjustments into the ratings). So for this week, we're once again looking at DAVE (a weighted stat that combines the raw VOA with the preseason forecast), and the raw, unadjusted VOA totals (which are now broken down into passing and rushing, for what it's worth).

Click here for a good explanation of how DVOA, in all its forms, works.

Browns offense vs. Ravens defense:

                    CLE offense  BAL defense
DAVE after Week 3      -6.6%        -8.1%
Weeks 1-3 actual VOA   -6.5%       -10.0%
actual passing VOA     -4.7%        11.8%
actual rushing VOA     -9.2%       -43.8%

We've seen the Browns offense perform at both extreme ends of the spectrum, yet ironically, their overall numbers, when you consider all three games they've played, are in pretty close agreement with Football Outsiders' original projection. It's worth noting, though, that both the passing and rushing attacks have been boom-or-bust. Every Derek Anderson pass has us holding our collective breath, as we know it could result in a mindless interception just as easily as it could result in a touchdown. At this point, I'm not going to complain—I much prefer watching the Browns take chances than conservatively bunching themselves at the line of scrimmage. The running game, meanwhile, has been a steady display of the usual stalled attempts, punctuated a couple times a game by extremely successful gains. Average it all together and the Browns look to be about 6% worse than average, but it's the knowledge that they're at least capable of executing their plays at a higher level that means the most to us.

The Baltimorons' defense is hardly the #1-ranked unit of a year ago, though it is still ranked 5th by DAVE (and 8th by raw VOA). Uncharacteristically, the Ravens' D has been poorly balanced. The rush defense, ranked 2nd by VOA, has been dominant while the pass defense, ranked 20th by VOA, has shown signs of weakness. I shouldn't have to say it, but the Browns will only be successful if they pass the ball and pass it well. It doesn't matter a lick how much (or with what degree of success) they hand off to Jamal Lewis. That's generally true, as a rule, but it will be even more true this week. Advantage: Ravens

Ravens offense vs. Browns defense:

                    BAL offense  CLE defense
DAVE after Week 3       1.5%         9.9%
Weeks 1-3 actual VOA   -4.1%        22.4%
actual passing VOA     -7.3%        54.3%
actual rushing VOA     -0.1%        -5.5%

It's a testament to the crappiness of the Saints', Jets', Giants', and Bills' pass defenses that the Browns rank as high as 28th in passing DVOA allowed, considering the number of easy touchdowns and long gains they've given up. The Steelers and Bengals were one thing, but when the Raiders showed they were able to pick apart the Browns' pass coverage, some alarms went off. The single biggest key to the Browns' success as a team, if you ask me, is restoring the strength of the secondary. Leigh Bodden is off to a pretty good start—no surprise—but Eric Wright and Brodney Pool have each suffered from mental lapses which have allowed opposing receivers to get wide open deep. Even Sean Jones seems to have allowed more passes to be complete than we might expect. Coach Crennel has hinted that he might let Daven Holly or Kenny Wright shoulder more of Eric Wright's load starting this week, though that is hardly a guarantee the problem will be fixed.

Fortunately, the 'Morons have been about average rushing the ball (14th by VOA) but weak passing the ball (24th). Steve McNair is listed as questionable with a groin injury, so it remains to be seen whether we'll see McNair or Kyle Boller. I'm not sure how much matters, though. After Todd Heap (36.7%), the Ravens don't have a single receiver with a VOA higher than -11.7% (Derrick Mason). That may help, though it's not going to completely level the playing field. Slight advantage: Ravens

Special teams matchups:

                       CLE s.t. BAL s.t.
DAVE after Week 3        4.3%     7.0%
Weeks 1-3 actual VOA     8.9%    16.2%
FG kicking              -1.0      1.4
CLE kickoff vs. BAL KR  -1.6      4.3
CLE KR vs. BAL kickoff  10.9      1.9
CLE punt vs. BAL PR      1.7     11.3
CLE PR vs. BAL punt     -0.1     -0.9

The Browns special teams rank 4th in the NFL by VOA, thanks (almost entirely) to their #1-ranked kickoff return unit. Unfortunately, this week the Browns are going up against the team with the league's top special teams, according to VOA. The Ravens are led by their #1-ranked punt return team and their 5th-ranked kickoff return team. In addition to that, neither the Browns nor the 'Morons have been especially impressive in kicking off or punting, so we may be in store for a return-fest this week! Advantage: Ravens

As you can plainly see, I have given the Ravens the advantage in all three phases of the game. Still, I don't think this matchup is as lopsided as it was, say, last year. I feel relatively confident that the Browns will be able to pull off—at the very least—a moral victory (call it a hunch). I'll see you at the Stadium!

I watched The Colbert Report tonight, in which the guest happened to be novelist John Grisham, promoting his new book, Playing For Pizza, which, somehow, is not about a corrupt southern lawyer. It's not even about an ethical southern lawyer caught in a web of corruption! No, the premise, according to Amazon.com, is this:

Rick Dockery was the third-string quarterback for the Cleveland Browns. In the AFC Championship game against Denver, to the surprise and dismay of virtually everyone, Rick actually got into the game. With a 17-point lead and just minutes to go, Rick provided what was arguably the worst single performance in the history of the NFL. Overnight, he became a national laughingstock and, of course, was immediately cut by the Browns and shunned by all other teams.

But all Rick knows is football, and he insists that his agent, Arnie, find a team that needs him. Against enormous odds Arnie finally locates just such a team and informs Rick that, miraculously, he can in fact now be a starting quarterback. Great, says Rick—for which team?

The mighty Panthers of Parma, Italy.

Not having read the book (and not planning to), a couple of thoughts pop into my head. First, John Grisham is either painfully unoriginal, or a sadistic bastard. Second, is the use of Parma, Italy as a locale meant to be ironic (because of Parma, OH)? I realize the Parma Panthers are actually a real team, in real life, but still. Third, where does Rick Dockery now rank among fictional Browns of yore? (Definitely somewhere behind legendary running back and East Side bowling alley owner Luther "Boom Boom" Jackson, but how far behind?)

Finally... the Browns in the AFC Championship? What, is this a science fiction novel? The Browns would need a whole legion of corrupt southern lawyers doing corrupt, southern-type things, for that to happen.

A lot of fans panicked after the Week 1 loss to Pittsburgh. But that game felt like a fluke to me (as a card-carrying citizen of Measured Response Nation). Likewise, the Week 2 win definitely felt like a fluke (a happy one)—I don't care what asinine made-up country you come from. This game, though, felt a little closer to what I expected from the 2007 Browns.

For example: the offense was good at times but bad overall. It had its share of nice plays, but suffered from too many stalled drives and was hamstrung by some bad decisions from its quarterback. It may not have been what I wanted to see, but it was basically what I expected to see.

(That said, the Browns offense still looks plenty better than it did in 2006. Clearly, they haven't yet graduated to the "next level", whatever that is, but it's evident that most of the pieces are in place.)

The special teams continue to play up to their lofty standards, and once again kept the Browns in a game they probably had no business being in (final play notwithstanding). Nothing we haven't seen before...

The defense, on the other hand, continues to play poorly, and this time I am legitimately concerned, because the Raiders, unlike the Browns' first two opponents, have a bad offense. We saw a couple of things work well—Leigh Bodden allowed only one completion on six tries, and the pass rush applied some pressure, but the end results were once again pretty terrible. 26 points is a lot to give up to the Raiders, especially when you consider that the Browns lucked out by recovering a few fumbles—essentially, Oakland played well enough to score more than 26 points.

There's still plenty of time for things to get sorted out, but for now, the performance of the defense—especially the pass defense—especially the secondary—especially on deep passes—is the Browns' most pressing concern.

Play of the Week

Alex says: Before I get to my selection, allow me a few words. Now that's what I call a Browns game! This week, the team really returned to form with another trademark Browns Game. We've discussed the concept before, but it seems the Browns are cursed to forever be playing games in which they're badly outplayed and clearly don't deserve to win, yet by some incredible stroke of luck find themselves in the thick of it in the fourth quarter, such that, if only they could come through with a touchdown or field goal or what have you, they'd steal a victory. However, they so rarely come through in this situation, and that's what we saw this week. A blocked field goal—a very interesting variation on the normal Browns Game theme. Well done, boys. Anyway, my choice for Play of the Week came early, in the first quarter when Derek Anderson lofted a pass over Braylon Edwards shoulder to convert a 3rd-19. Braylon juggled, then caught the ball while tumbling out-of-bounds. It was all very nice.

Corey says: Even though the defense played badly, I'll go with Kamerion Wimbley's first sack (the one where he lunged at Josh McCown from about three yards away). My other choices were Braylon's two long gains (the one Alex chose, plus the touchdown), and some of the long pass plays from the one-minute drill at the end of the game. But there's just something refreshing about seeing Wimbley execute his trademark pounce like that. It's a thing of beauty.

Player of the Week

Alex says: While the stagnation of the offense may lead to less press for the revamped offensive line, it wasn't for lack of great pass protection. Derek Anderson was technically sacked once, but that came on Gerard Warren's forced fumble on which Warren could only get a hand in and Anderson wasn't even knocked down. The official play-by-play for the game doesn't record Anderson being knocked down once, although I know from replays he was roughed up at least once. On this evidence, I choose the left side of the line, specifically Eric Steinbach, as the Player of the Week. I went looking into the running game to help determine which linemen played particularly well. The Browns ran seven times off left end or left tackle for 40 yards, with a median carry of 5.7 yards. Off either guard or up the middle, the Browns had had eight carries for 36 yards, a median of 4.5. The Browns chose to run to the right only twice for a grand total of zero yards. I read this distribution as telling us the left side of the line (Steinbach and Joe Thomas) is so superior to the right, that Rob Chudzinksi figures it's better to always play to his strength.

Corey says: The Player of the Week is Josh Cribbs. I try to give credit for a long kickoff return to the entire unit and not just the return man, but still, Cribbs is clearly one of the better (if not the best) kickoff returners in the league at this moment in time. Not only that, he has become quite the gunner on both the kickoff and punt teams, as evidenced by his smothering tackle of returner Chris Carr at the Raiders' 7-yard line following a Browns punt. But not only that! Cribbs lined up at QB for one play, and ended up running the ball for a 7-yard gain. I, like many fans, love to see this kind of play, especially because Cribbs was a college QB known for Kordell Stewart-style versatility. The most interesting part about this play, however, was the fact that Derek Anderson lined up wide on the left, dropping back to receive a possible lateral as soon as the ball was snapped (for some kind of bizarro-halfback option, I would guess). Anyway, it was a cool play, even though Cribbs only picked up 7 yards...

But not only that! Two weeks ago, Fox Sports Ohio began airing my new favorite reality show, Josh's Cribbs. If you haven't watched it yet, I strongly recommend you do so (it re-airs a couple times a week). So far, there have been two episodes—I can only speculate as to how many there will be in total—and it appears the entire premise of the show is to watch Josh Cribbs go about his daily life. It's brilliant. In episode 1, Josh tours us around his home, and goes shopping at Dick's Sporting Goods. In episode 2, Josh plays in a charity golf tournament, and visits a gun-firing range with teammate Ethan Kelley and—wait for it—former teammate Babatunde Oshinowo! Seriously, it's the greatest show on television right now. (I just can't wait for the spin-offs to ensue... Brodney's Pool, anyone?)

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"We tried to muster something up in the second half but then we ended up letting them block the kick at the end to ensure the loss." —Romeo Crennel

What insightful commentary! He really elucidated a facet of the game only someone on the sidelines would see. Wow! Honestly, this kind of nothing-talk illustrates a lot of Browns fans' frustrations with Crennel. He's cryptic in interviews and not terribly emotional on the sideline. In fact, on the sideline, he'll usually stand by himself and stoically watch the game. It sure looks like he's dead weight. But I try to reserve judgment, at least from the in- and post-game behavior of Crennel, since seriously, how much of a difference could it make?

Corey says:

"The TD was set up perfectly. There was great blocking. I got out around the edge, and I saw Steve Heiden's great block in my peripheral vision. I saw the ref right behind him, and I was thinking to myself, 'Ref, do not throw no flag.' It was a great block by Heiden. I gave them a head fake inside, and it was just over from that point." —Josh Cribbs

Yes. This, in contrast to Alex's Quote of the Week above, is what I want to hear about in the postgame interview. I want to know who set up what, and what he was thinking. I want to know about strategy, what was planned, what wasn't, and why. I don't want to hear, for example, Joe Jurevicius' answer to the question "How devastating was this loss?" (If you guessed "Very"—you're right!!!!)

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: A no-brainer, as Josh "MTV" Cribbs found himself in the endzone at the end of a kickoff return once again. The return team did a tremendous job blocking—no Raider was within, I'd say, six feet of Cribbs, until the kicker. Speaking of which, Cribbs's juking two-step to elude Sebastian Janikowski was most excellent. Why kickers even try to bring down Cribbs in the open field like this, we'll never know.

Corey says: Yeah, I'm not sure there's much else I can say about this beautiful, beautiful play. I think the Browns kickoff return team, even for all the accolades it receives, has been slightly underrated, because they tend to have a lot of returns in the 50-to-80-yard range, which don't end in touchdowns. Obviously, an objective analysis like the one at Football Outsiders will credit these returns properly, but even Football Outsiders, I suspect, is slightly underrating the Browns' kickoff return team, for another reason: they have mounted countless long returns that have been nullified due to penalties. Sure, some of those returns may only have been long because of the penalties, but at least a handful of them were mounted independently of the penalties that canceled them out. This, to me, is evidence of superior kickoff-return-mounting ability, whether it shows up in the stat book or not.

Volney "Skeets" Quinlan Memorial Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: An old Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times favorite, "Big Ol'" Simon Fraser had a nice game, stopping LaMont Jordan for one yard on a 1st-and-10 in the second quarter and recovering Jordan's muffed handoff later in the same quarter. While forcing fumbles is a skill, as Football Outsiders has shown, recovering them isn't and the Browns really benefited from two lucky bounces of the ball. Sean Jones did a nice job to strip Mike Williams but the other was dumb luck. These two plays could end up really warping our evaluation of both the offense and defense. If the Raiders hadn't fumbled, it's likely they would've gone on to score at least once, since they scored in six of their nine drives that didn't end a half or result in a turnover. Both fumbles also gave the Browns good field position and led to 10 points. If the Raiders added another score and the Browns didn't get all 10 of those points (maybe just 3?), the game wouldn't have ended so close and it'd have been easier to see that the Browns were outplayed.

Corey says: So, who's the current Browns player you're least likely to have heard of? I'll wager it's linebacker Kristofor "Kris" Griffin, #53, who is now in his third year as a pro, after stints in Kansas City and Europe. Kris is quite possibly the best NFL player to have graduated from his alma mater, Indiana of Pennsylvania. And since, for all intents and purposes, Ohio is the Indiana of Pennsylvania (just as Maryland is the Kentucky of Pennsylvania, or New Jersey is the Pennsylvania of Pennsylvania), then Kris Griffin practically went to Ohio State! So when I say he's quite possibly the best player in the NFL to have graduated from his particular alma mater, that's quite a compliment!

Fashion Item of the Week

Alex says: The striped socks remain! Let us rejoice. With that out of the way, I don't really have much else, besides that I fully respect Raiders Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan for rocking the nuclear mullet.

Corey says: The return of the striped socks is indeed a great relief to humankind. The Browns wore them in Week 1 of the 2007 preseason, but reverted to their all-brown monstrosities for the other three preseason games. Then, in the regular season, they wore the brown jerseys in both Weeks 1 and 2, leaving us all in suspense about which socks would appear when they finally did bust out the white unis. This is just a guess, but I'm thinking that the Browns plan to wear both sock varieties in a rotation. Which is horrible, but still better than when they abandoned the stripes altogether a few years back. Anyway, I think several Mistake by the Lake readers would call for my head if I let this Fashion of the Week go by without crediting Scott Player for his distinctive one-bar helmet and fu manchu 'stache. I just don't want anyone out there to think I'm a Player hater (I know, boooo...). I still want the D-Zast-er to get healthy as fast as possible, though!

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: I choose Lane Kiffin for calling a timeout on the one that Phil Dawson actually made. I wonder: if Kiffin had called a timeout just as Phil Dawson was booting a field goal which sailed wide, only to watch Phil connect on the one that actually did count, would people be lambasting the Raiders coach for making the terrible decision to try to ice the kicker? Because that would be hilarious.

Corey says: Can it be that Bill Macatee and Steve Beuerlein have replaced Ian Eagle and Solomon Wilcots as Official CBS Lackeys Sentenced to Follow the Cleveland Browns to the Depths of Hell? If so, congratulations, Ian and Sol—can I call you Sol?—on your promotion! You'll be slightly missed, especially since Steve Beuerlein is once again the Idiot of the Week, this time for falling over himself in praise of the Browns' play call (a run up the middle for 13 yards) on 3rd-and-40 at the end of the game's first drive. His reasoning was that the worst thing you can do on 3rd-and-40 is throw an interception, even though an interception in that situation is not much different than a punt, which is what you're guaranteed to do (punt, I mean) if you opt to run up the middle like that. I'm just sayin'.

Number of the Week

Alex says: 47%, or the Raiders' conversion efficiency on third and fourth downs. The Browns' defensive struggles to end drives are exacerbated by some of the crazy conversions they allowed. Like 27 yards on a 3rd-and-23. Or a 41-yard touchdown bomb on 3rd-and-1. I don't believe defense on third downs is much different than on first or second. In fact, having your performance on third down way out of whack with other plays is an indicator for strong regression to the mean. So, if the Browns were playing well on first and second down and giving up big yardage on third, we could rest semi-well-assured that things would work themselves out and the other team would eventually be stopped in their tracks. But I'm not so sure the Browns have been defending well on first and second down either. Their pass coverage has been erratic at best this year. Leigh Bodden played well this week, but Eric Wright and the safeties have seemingly been victimized over and over. Could it be they really miss Brian Russell this much? Or is something else afoot?

Corey says: Thanks to last week's offensive extravaganza, Derek Anderson entered Week 3 on pace to shatter the New Browns franchise record for passing DPAR (his raw PAR, unadjusted though it may have been, was 15.0, which is higher than any DPAR ever put up by a New Browns quarterback over a full season). Of course, that number is going to come down quite a bit, thanks to—among other things—Anderson's poor performance against Oakland. Stop me if this sounds familiar. In 2006, Anderson entered Week 16 on pace to break the franchise record for passing DPAR despite only having played in a couple of games. Then, he laid an egg of unimaginable proportions against Tampa Bay, in which he posted the worst single-game DPAR in New Browns history (-17.6). I'm not bringing this up for any particular reason, other than I thought the potential parallel was interesting.

Pythagorean Moral Standings

As you might expect, the Browns cruised to a whopper of a moral victory this week, thanks to—what else—the striped socks. The Bengals and Ravens each suffered the proverbial moral shutout, while the Steelers morally pasted the 49ers. In case you're wondering, the Browns now boast a moral record of 3-0, though their Pythagorean moral record, as you can see below, pegs them as just a .767 team, morally (which still leads the NFL—don't you worry!).

            PMW   PML   pct
Cleveland   2.3   0.7  .767
Pittsburgh  1.6   1.4  .533
Cincinnati  1.1   1.9  .367
Baltimore   0.0   3.0  .000

Next week: The Browns run circles around the stupid, pathetic, idiotic, conniving, shallow, sinister, hapless, ugly, smelly, back-stabbing, people-stabbing, amoral, obese, malnourished, weak-minded, unoriginal, flatulent, lying, cheating, stealing, moronic, uncoordinated... what was I talking about again? Well, whatever—I'll see you at the stadium, Dawg denizens, and we'll "see" you (but not literally) on another exhilarating "Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns"!

The worst best Brownsiest team in the league is at it again—let's preview!

It's still too early in the year to calculate actual DVOA, so for the third preview in a row, I'm giving you the starter package: (1) Football Outsiders' preseason DVOA projections, (2) the actual, unadjusted VOA numbers from Weeks 1 and 2, and (3) DAVE, which combines the two according to how many games have been played so far.

Click here for a detailed explanation of how DVOA works.

Browns offense vs. Raiders defense:

                    CLE offense  OAK defense
2007 projected DVOA   -10.7%        -1.3%
DAVE after Week 2      -6.8%         3.9%
Weeks 1-2 actual VOA   -7.2%        19.1%

What to make of the Browns offense? I don't think anyone has a clue anymore. Thus far, they have ranked dead last in raw VOA one week, and first the next week. So, tossing out the obvious statistical outliers, we're left with... nothing. DAVE is actually more optimistic about the Browns offense than either their plain VOA or their preseason projection (this, I discovered, is because Aaron Schatz upgraded the Browns' original projection slightly following the Frye trade and the realization than Quinn wasn't going to start right away). For the moment, I'm not even going to try to evaluate the Browns offense. With a few weeks' more data, we should have a better idea, but for now, I'll just say that nothing will surprise me (including a return to something resembling 2006 form... I'm just saying).

The Oakland defense, meanwhile, has underperformed so far in 2007, for what it's worth. They had a strong year in 2006, ranking 9th in DVOA (-8.3%)—5th against the pass (-16.8%)—and were projected to rank 15th in overall defensive DVOA heading into the 2007 campaign. But their performance in Weeks 1 and 2 ranks them 27th by VOA. That said, the passing defense (9.5%) has still been worlds better than the run defense (31.4%), which probably bodes well for the Raiders vis-à-vis the Browns. Slight advantage: Raiders

Raiders offense vs. Browns defense:

                    OAK offense  CLE defense
2007 projected DVOA   -14.4%        -0.4%
DAVE after Week 2     -16.4%         7.8%
Weeks 1-2 actual VOA  -22.4%        32.1%

The Browns defense has had two terrible games so far, and currently ranks 29th in unadjusted VOA. That number, however, is only going to improve once opponent adjustments are factored in, as the Steelers and especially the Bengals have top offenses. DAVE currently ranks the Browns' D 25th in the NFL, but even that, it seems to me, is being dragged down by the lack of opponent adjustments for Weeks 1 and 2. Surprisingly (and ironically), the pass defense has been the weak unit (71.3% VOA!) while the run defense has had two pretty good games, ranking 13th in VOA (-7.0%).

That said, Week 3 presents the Browns defense an excellent opportunity to re-assert itself, as the Raiders offense is quite weak. Oakland ranks 31st in offensive DAVE, coming off two uninspiring games against Detroit and Denver. The problem is quite obviously the passing game, which has put up a VOA of -50.5% so far (not surprisingly, QB Josh McCown ranks dead last in passing PAR through two weeks, with -16.0). Unlike many Browns fans, I have not yet grown concerned with the performance of the defense, but if they have another bad game in Oakland, I may start sweating. Advantage: Browns

Special teams matchups:

                     CLE s.t.  OAK s.t.
2007 projected DVOA    0.6%      1.0%
DAVE after Week 2      1.2%     -1.4%
Weeks 1-2 actual VOA   2.9%     -8.6%

If Coors commercials from about three years ago are any indicator, then Josh Cribbs is going to have the game of his life this weekend. Seriously, though, it's still way too early to make any guesses about special teams. Both the Browns and Raiders had strong special teams projections, but while the Browns have had marginal success in the season's first two weeks, the Raiders have been pretty dismal (especially in the field goal kicking department). By the way, the 2006 Raiders ranked 2nd-worst in kickoffs and 5th-worst in punting, so be on the lookout for some action from Cribbs' Crazies. Advantage: Browns

After the events of last weekend, Browns fans are well aware just how dramatically things can vary from week to week, and in these early stages of the season, it can something feel like a pointless excercise writing a detailed game preview based on statistics. That said, the Browns are probably a better team than the Raiders—you don't need me to tell you this is a winnable game. Enjoy it!

Get 99.96% excited because the Indians are (probably) going to the playoffs!

While Corey and I have been blathering on and on about the Browns—and being quoted on ESPN.com for our efforts, ahem (which begs the question, who's more now: me or Corey?)—the Tribe went out and did some cool things and now stand to do cooler things in the post-season. At the very least, the Indians warrant a mention on the media-darling Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times. Way to go, guys! You've earned it.

And I have so many, many things to say about this team. Like, for example, did you know that Derek Anderson wears a size 17 shoe? It's true! Although, he's not eligible for the playoff roster. Moving on, Corey made a nifty graph of the Indians chances at the division title and wild card all the way back through April, using data from Baseball Prospectus.



I find it interesting that the Indians were more likely to be the wild card rather than win the division for only two weeks in July. Also, Baseball Prospectus has a graph showing the overall odds for every team in the Central. Haha, Detroit.

I'm sorry I didn't have much to say; I struggled with an angle for this post. Rest assured Corey and I will have plenty to say once we're closer to the playoffs.

To say that the tides have turned would not do the Browns justice. That they managed to rejuvenate the spirits of the some of the most discouraged football fans I've ever seen in one week without even bringing in Brady Quinn is simply amazing.

I can't express my happiness that Derek Anderson has managed to quiet the Brady Quinn Now movement, at least for a few weeks. But underneath Anderson's sparkly statistics (20/33, 328 yards, 5 touchdowns, 10.1 adjusted yards per attempt), it wasn't clear that Anderson had solved his former problems. He put little touch on his short passes—rocketing a screen off of a running back's hands—and threw slightly behind a number of receivers. Fortunately, the Browns receivers made up for many mistakes with fantastic catches, and the Bengals defensive backs played terribly. That said, Anderson's interception was still cringe-worthy, and classic Anderson.

What set this week's game apart was the play of the offensive line. I can hardly remember a game where I was more satisfied afterwards with the play of the line. Anderson was under pressure almost never and Jamal Lewis usually had a hole to run through.

The excellent play of the line was led by its two marquee off-season additions: Joe Thomas and Eric Steinbach. The left side of the line looks pretty set with solid, perhaps great players. If LeCharles Bentley completes his miraculous recovery, center would be set too. Meanwhile, Kellen Winslow is a fantastic tight end, and Steve Heiden's probably one of the best backup TEs in the league. Braylon Edwards has shown flashes of brilliance, and Joe Jurevicius remains as valuable as ever. Which leaves quarterback, halfback, fullback, and the right side of the line as positions that need work.

You could say quarterback is taken care of, if Brady Quinn's all that's been promised. I don't know much about how Lawrence Vickers compares to his contemporaries, but having an elite fullback is low on my list of priorities. So it could be said that the Browns are a halfback and a lineman or two away from having a great offense. This is all unabashed wishcasting of course, but maybe it's time to get optimistic about the Browns offense.

Play of the Week

Alex says: Early in the fourth quarter, with a shootout on our hands, I didn't trust the Browns to trade scores with Cincinnati, since the Bengals have the more established and respected offense. But Derek Anderson hit Braylon Edwards for a 37-yard bomb, the Browns' final touchdown of the afternoon, and I was able to breathe a sigh of relief. The Bengals sent a safety blitzing on the left side of the offense, which was picked up perfectly by Jamal Lewis Jason Wright. The other safety didn't rotate over, so once Braylon—on the left sideline—sprinted past the first level, he was wide-freaking-open. Derek Anderson's overthrow added to the artistry, as Edwards laid out and caught the ball at full extension and slid into the end zone. A beauty.

Corey says: One week, there's nothing to choose from. The next week, it's impossible to choose. Why can't the Browns offense be just good enough? Is that too much to ask? I kid, I kid—of course I realize that it is too much to ask. At any rate, while acknowledging that I must exclude a whole host of great plays (almost all of them long passing plays) in order to select a Play of the Week, I'll go with Braylon Edwards' improbable reception of a tipped pass late in the second quarter. I don't know how Braylon managed to stay with the ball after being knocked to the ground—it was quite impressive. In many ways, that play was representative of the offense's performance all game long: Anderson less-than-wisely forced a ton of passes in to receivers who just happened to make lucky or improbable catches. Also, Anderson threw a lot of way-off-target passes to receivers who just happened to be so wide open that it didn't matter. Not that I'm complaining—that was just how the game went.

Player of the Week

Alex says: With the passing game driving the Browns' success (see my Number of the Week), it's obvious the Player of the Week should be from the passing unit. And as should be expected, the four principal actors of the passing game—Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards, Joe Jurevicius, and Kellen Winslow—all gave standout performances. But how to separate them? Anderson, despite his impressive numbers, was still the gun-slinging, risk-loving Derek Anderson we know, except this time around the Bengals failed to capitalize on interception opportunities and couldn't penetrate the line. Jurevicius was only targeted on 5 passes. Edwards bested Winslow's raw receiving numbers, but a deeper look shows Winslow may have had the better game. Edwards caught 8 of the 14 passes throws to him, while Winslow hauled in 6 of 7. All 6 receptions were Successes, with 5 of the 6 receptions gaining first-down yardage. Kellen is starting to look like the best tight end in the league to me.

Corey says: My secret plan to name Leigh Bodden Player of the Week sixteen games in a row has hit a little snag. Round 4 of Bodden-Johnson obviously went to Ochenta y Cinco, as Leigh very uncharacteristically allowed Chad Johnson to make catch after catch. (Still, that makes the all-time series Bodden 3, Johnson 1 by my admittedly subjective tally.) At any rate, it would only be appropriate to go with a member of the Browns' suddenly-juggernaut offense for Player of the Week. Derek Anderson put up some impressive stats, but was still quite Anderson-y, as we've discussed. Braylon Edwards had an amazing game, for sure, but I would prefer to call attention to someone on the offensive line, which had about as perfect a game as one could ask for. Forget the fact that Cincinnati had no sacks; they applied but a single pressure on Anderson, according to the official scorer. Now, some of that is Anderson, who knows how to get rid of the ball in a hurry, but still: what more could you ask for from the O-line? Anyway, seeing as how he's currently my favorite lineman, and in consideration of the fact that all five linemen were pretty flawless in pass protection, and in light of the fact that all three of the Browns' long running plays were run on the left side of the line (and that Cincinnati's lone QB pressure came on the other side), I'm going with Joe Thomas. It's not always the case that we actually notice when an offensive lineman has a great game (it's generally necessary for all five guys to have great games), but let's hope this is the first of many for Joe.

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"In order for this team to be successful, it is going to start with the offensive line. All five of us need to stay healthy, come out each week and do our thing. This is where we are going to start turning it around." —Eric Steinbach

I think what's being criminally underreported about this win is that Derek Anderson is the first quarterback in New Browns history who instills an atmosphere confidence in the offense so that his offensive linemen produce great pass protection. Like a confident starting pitcher who generates great run support, Anderson's leadership and poise were all that was needed to keep the Cincinnati rushers at bay. Regardless of what Steinbach says, as long as Anderson is at the helm, I predict nary a defender will lay a finger on him all season.

Corey says:

"This is the team we want to show the league. This is us.... This is Cleveland football and this is what we're going to be about if we operate like we did today." —Braylon Edwards.

Phew, that's a relief! Because the Browns, those pranksters, had me thinking they were all about scoring very few points and running the ball for no gain. It turns out, that wasn't them! That was someone else. I am so relieved—they really had me worried. This—throwing the ball a ton, scoring lots of points, and playing weak defense—is apparently Cleveland football. Seriously, though—this was a decidedly white-collar win. Shouldn't all those die hard, blue-collar, lunch pail, smash mouth Browns fans be complaining right about now?

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: Late in the fourth, the offense had stalled trying to run out the clock. The Bengals would get another drive with a minute left and behind by 6 points. A Paul Ernster Special could put the defense in a bind, but Dave Zastudil, the DZast-er, booted a nearly perfect punt out-of-bounds at the 9-yard line. Now forced to go 91 yards for a touchdown, rather than 70 or so if Ernster was still around, Carson Palmer and company ran out of steam themselves and the Browns had themselves their first victory of 2007. Zastudil put in a courageous effort and I hope he didn't re-injure himself punting, as he could be seen clutching his back walking off the field afterward.

Corey says: I love the Browns' return teams! Even though I have been methodically conditioned over the past two years to expect a play-nullifying penalty on every single successful return, I can't get enough of the sight of Josh Cribbs rolling downfield like some kind of human Plinko chip. As is their wont, Cribbs' Crazies produced two returns of more than 85 yards, but only one of them stuck. The Browns' return team scared Cincinnati so much, the Bengals opted to go with the squib kick for the entire second half of the game.

Raymond Walls Memorial Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: Forced to choose between a game brimming with the choicest obscure Browns and a win, I'd sheepishly have to choose the latter. So I suppose its out of the question to bemoan the lack of obscurities this week, but seriously, what the hell? Mike Adams was as good as it got, and he got double mentioned last time around. Therefore I choose backup quarterback Ken Dorsey, easily one of the two best Dorseys on the Browns. Since Ken re-joined the team, the Browns have the highest-scoring offense in the N.F.L!

Corey says: No one classically obscure played much of a role in this game, but Lennie Friedman did ring in the new year by scooping up his second career kickoff return—Mazel Tov! I tell you, that Lennie is such a mensch. He had that Bengals kickoff team atoning for its sins. Naturally, it was all apples and honey over on the Browns sideline. Granted, Lennie's return was no tekiah gedolah, if you know what I mean—it went for 1 yard—but still, it had me jumping out of my yarmulke. Uhh... Judaism!

Fashion Item of the Week

Alex says: Six games into the uniform-wearing season, we still have yet to see the Browns' whites. I have a pretty good idea what this means (nothing), but it's a little curious. Personally, I prefer the white jerseys to their brown counterparts, but I'd be willing to sit through 10 seasons of brown jerseys if only the team would de-brown those socks. Say it with me: DE-BROWN THOSE SOCKS! DE-BROWN THOSE SOCKS!

Corey says: Picking on the Bengals' hideous uniforms is like shooting Skyline chili in a barrel (I don't know—just roll with it). It makes for easy Fashion of the Week fodder, but it gets old. So I'm going to single out a single Bengal whose fashion choices irritate me. His name is Domata Peko—which, frankly, sounds made up—and you're correct in thinking that you've never heard of him. But actually, you know him quite well. He's the Bengals defensive lineman with the hair (#94... you know the one). Maybe it's because his stupid hair covers up his stupid name so that you never know who he is, but something about that guy grates on me.

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: I'm just in a euphoric mood after this victory and the idea of declaring some person an "idiot" seems ludicrous. But if I must. T.J. Houshmanzadeh is an idiot, for many reasons. (1) He had some stupid-looking kind of band-aid on his chin. What's up with that? (2) His name has too many letters and I don't like typing it. (3) His touchdown catch totally wasn't a touchdown because one foot was out-of-bounds but he was acting all like it was, which it wasn't.

Corey says: I've got to give Chad Johnson credit. He's made quite a name for himself as someone who always delivers an innovative, entertaining touchdown celebration. But even the most ardent Ochenta y Cinco supporters must have had their garish orange socks knocked off by Chad's incredible "waffle confusedly over which endzone was, in fact, the Dawg Pound, and whether or not to just jump into the non-Dawg Pound endzone anyway, ultimately just walking back toward the sideline sheepishly" routine. My personal favorite part of that sequence was the way Johnson's teammates were all motioning him in the right direction, but he was still too disoriented to commit to a course of action. Of course, by the time he got his second chance and finally did make it into the Dawg Pound, the air had been let out of the proverbial football. It was about as anti-climactic an end to the whole Chad Johnson/Dawg Pound saga as one could have imagined.

Number of the Week

Alex says: 44%, or Jamal Lewis's success rate on the afternoon—discounting Derek Anderson's kneel-down which is attributed to Lewis for some reason. Now, 44% isn't awful or anything (it would've rated around 33rd-best last season), but it isn't 200-yard-per-game good. Lewis played decently, maybe even well, but not great. Take away his two long runs and his 216 yards on 27 carries morphs into 103 yards on 25 carries. The gaudy 8 YPC becomes 4.1. To show even further Jamal's boom-or-bust afternoon, on his 12 "successful" carries, he averaged 16.3 yards. On his 15 "unsuccessful" carries, that figure drops to 1.3. Frankly, this kind of game is probably the best we can hope for from Lewis at this point in his career, but it just goes to show you that the offense was successful from the pass, not the run.

Corey says: 51. It's really hard for even the best NFL teams to score 50 points in a game. That's because, once you score your first buttload, odds are you're ahead by a lot, which means you're going to start rushing the ball. And as any loyal Mistake by the Lake reader knows, rushing the ball will kill the clock quite effectively, but it won't put that many points on the board. To score 50 or more points, you essentially have to be in a tight game—which this was. I have to give credit to Rob Chudzinski for recognizing that at no point was the Browns' lead solid enough to abandon the passing plays. Even though Jamal Lewis had three excellent ground gains on the afternoon, most of the Browns' rushes were of the usual piddling variety. That in mind, Chudzinski stuck with Derek Anderson's Rick Vaughn-esque throwing arm until the bitter end, and it paid dividends. The Browns' 51 points may stand up as the highest single-game point total of the season. In 2006, for example, no team scored more than 49 in a game (only San Diego scored more than 45—they did it twice). So, uh, we'll have that...

Pythagorean Moral Standings

The nice thing about tracking Pythagorean moral victories, instead of regular moral victories, is that Pythagorean moral win percentage correlates better to future moral success than regular moral win percentage does. Thus, we can now more accurately predict how the Browns will fare, morally, in the coming weeks. This week, the Browns pretty handily stuck it to the Bengals in the moral ledger. Chad Johnson's shenanigans and Glenn Holt's ridiculous four injuries (of which two were probably faked) both figured heavily in the Browns' blowout (worth about 0.9 Pythagorean moral wins). This is particularly disappointing to the Bengals, since it follows their pasting of the Ravens last Monday night. The Ravens, again, morally lost to the Jets this week, for obvious reasons (Ray Lewis). Pittsburgh morally fell to Buffalo since their jerseys are so incredibly ugly.

            PMW  PML   pct
Cleveland   1.5  0.5  .750
Cincinnati  1.1  0.9  .550
Pittsburgh  0.7  1.3  .350
Baltimore   0.0  2.0  .000

Next week: For the third consecutive year, the Browns head past the event horizon to take on the lowly Raiders. We'll have up-to-the-minute reports on the orange-and-brownization of the newly-minted Orange Hole right here in the next stunning edition of "Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns"!

I know what you're thinking: is it still football season?! But believe it or not, the Browns still have a number of games left to play. With that in mind, let's get right to the preview.

As always, the stats from this preview come from Football Outsiders' weekly DVOA ratings. Because it's still too early in the season to calculate true DVOA, I'm going to provide you with three different alternatives: (1) the pre-season DVOA projections (same as I gave you last week), (2) DAVE ("DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early"), which combines the pre-season projection with actual performance data (the weights change as more actual games are played), and (3) the raw, unadjusted VOA (not DVOA) from Week 1. Regarding this last number, while it may tell you something about how the Browns (or Bengals) played in Week 1, it is virtually worthless for predicting future performance, so take it with a boulder of salt.

For a detailed explanation of how DVOA works, click here.

Browns offense vs. Bengals defense:

                    CLE offense  CIN defense
2007 projected DVOA   -10.7%        10.0%
DAVE after Week 1     -16.6%         4.2%
Week 1 actual VOA     -69.6%       -48.2%

It won't surprise you to learn that the Browns offense had the worst Week 1 performance of any NFL team. Thus, according to DAVE, the Browns have about the 30th-best offense in the league. Of course, the worst of the Opening Day onslaught occurred while Charlie Frye was under center. With him gone, I think it's reasonable for us to expect a more efficient offensive attack in Week 2.

Football Outsiders forecasted the Bengals to have a lousy defense in 2007 (27th by projected DVOA), but the Cincinnati D enjoyed a monster game against Baltimore in Week 1. For now, I remain skeptical—in 2006, the Bengals ranked 25th in defensive DVOA, thanks to a 28th-ranked pass defense. The Browns are going to have to take to the air if they want to score points. Of course, I could say that every week. What am I talking about? I do say that every week. It never seems to help... Advantage: Bengals

Bengals offense vs. Browns defense:

                    CIN offense  CLE defense
2007 projected DVOA     6.9%        -0.4%
DAVE after Week 1       5.0%         1.2%
Week 1 actual VOA     -11.4%        14.9%

It's my favorite matchup of the season—get ready for Bodden-Johnson IV! So far, the Browns' best player has been tasked with covering Ochenta y Cinco on three occasions (dating back to 2005), and, as we all remember, Leigh gobbled up his rival like so much delicious, delicious popcorn. Usually, the Browns deploy their starting corners on a strict left-right basis, but against the Bengals last year, they moved Bodden around so he could remain on Chad Johnson duty. Needless to say, I'll be watching this one with interest.

After a less-than-inspiring performance against Pittsburgh in Week 1, the Browns defense ranks 18th in the league, by DAVE. It's hard to know what to expect—in 2006, the pass defense was clearly the team's strength, while the run defense was weak, but against the Steelers last Sunday, the reverse was true. Pittsburgh successfully concentrated its passing attack on rookie CB Eric Wright, and frankly, if I were the Bengals, I'd try to do the same thing. The Bengals, as you know, have a very efficient offense, led by a passing attack that ranked 2nd in DVOA last year. So if the pressure is on anyone this week, it's definitely Eric Wright. Advantage: Bengals

Special teams matchups:

                    CLE s.t.  CIN s.t.
2007 projected DVOA   0.6%     -0.4%
DAVE after Week 1     0.1%     -3.7%
Week 1 actual VOA    -4.6%    -33.7%

The Browns special teams had an off game last week, but I think we can expect them to bounce back, especially if Dave Zastudil is healthy enough to play (his status is still uncertain). The Bengals special teams ranked 12th by DVOA last season, but were projected to rank just 24th heading into 2007, and were a complete disaster against Baltimore on Monday night. Advantage: Browns

People tend to read too much into Week 1 results, so if we can take anything positive away from last week's fiasco, it's that, for now, the Browns are likely to be slightly underrated. That said, they're still not even close to matching up favorably with the Bengals, so don't get your hopes up. Enjoy the game—that is, what moments of it happen to take place in between innings of the Indians game—and try not to get too depressed!

With the one-man fire sale over, like the phoenix, Ken Dorsey has risen from the ashes and claimed his rightful roster spot on the Browns. Though I only say rightful because, really, which other available quarterbacks deserved a place? Besides Byron Leftwich, of course.

I mean, come on, Ken Dorsey is Brady Quinn's mentor. How many pre-season games did Quinn win before tutoring under Dorsey? Exactly. And don't forget that Dorsey played under Rob Chudzinski in college. The Browns offensive system, its ins and outs—they're second nature to him now. And that knowledge is tantamount because, at the rate things have been going, Dorsey could go from discarded trash to starter in just a week and one quarter. I wouldn't be surprised.

The Browns don't have time to wait around and let their quarterbacks learn a playbook. They've got to have that stuff down now. So, I prepared this handy guide to every QB to play under Chudzinski—in case the team needs to find another one quick.

First, I'll dispense with those who're unavailable for whatever reason.

• Drew Brees (San Diego, 2005) – Starting for New Orleans
• Ken Dorsey (U. of Miami, 1999–2002) – Already a Brown
• Jeff Garcia (Cleveland, 2004) – Starting for Tampa Bay
• Kelly Holcomb (Cleveland, 2004) – Backup for Minnesota
• Kenny Kelly (U. of Miami, 1998–1999) – Though his name, frankly, sounds made up, left college football for professional baseball; now an outfielder for the Charlotte Knights in AAA
• Luke McCown (Cleveland, 2004) – Backing up Garcia for Tampa Bay
• Philip Rivers (San Diego, 2005–2006) – Starting for San Diego
• Billy Volek (San Diego, 2006) – Backing up Rivers for San Diego

The following two guys are nominally unavailable, and thus didn't fit on the above list, but could probably be pried away for the right price.

• Cleo Lemon (San Diego, 2005) – Backup for Miami, but with rookie John Beck around, not in team's long-term plans
• Charlie Whitehurst (San Diego, 2006) – Third string in San Diego behind Rivers and Volek, possibly expendable

And now we've come to the real meat of this article. Here are the quarterbacks who've played in a Chudzinksi-influenced offense and are currently—as best as I can tell—unemployed or close to it.

• Brock Berlin (U. of Miami, 2002–2003) – On St. Louis's practice squad
• Ryan Clement (U. of Miami, 1995–1997) – Last seen as a Las Vegas Outlaw in the XFL
• Ryan Collins (U. of Miami, 1994–1995) – AWOL since 1995
• Frank Costa (U. of Miami, 1994) – AWOL since 1994
• Scott Covington (U. of Miami, 1998) – Was a fringe NFL player for a while; last seen being released by the Rams in 2002
• Derrick Crudup (U. of Miami, 2001–2003) – Only started one game in college; last seen as backup in 2004 Peach Bowl
• Marc Guillon (U. of Miami, 2002) – Big-time failure at Miami, transferred to Alabama where he also failed; last seen quitting the Crimson Tide in 2006
• Zachary Hart (U. of Miami, 1999) – Something of a mystery, last seen making an appearance on a German message board in 2004
• Buck Ortega (U. of Miami, 2001-2003) – Two-time Obscure Brown of the Week, released after training camp, though no longer a QB
• Troy Prasek (U. of Miami, 1999–2003) – With four pass attempts to his name during his college career, last seen sitting the bench in the 2004 Orange Bowl
• Ethenic Sands (U. of Miami, 1999–2002) – Converted from WR to QB and back to WR again for some reason; last seen in 2003 Fiesta Bowl

Well, on second thought, maybe bringing in Chudzinski protégés (as much as you can call tight ends coach–quarterback a mentor-protégé relationship) isn't such a great idea. It didn't really work for Butch Davis. Although I know we'd have fun with names like "Cleo Lemon" or "Brock Berlin"…

O.K. on third thought, the Browns need to make a decision: if there's still hope for this season (which seems unlikely to plenty of those prone to overreacting), they should stick with Anderson, Dorsey, and Quinn at quarterback for the rest of the season. But if all is for naught, Phil Savage, start working those phones and bring in Ethenic Sands for a tryout.

Woo, who's got Browns fever?! No, seriously, who's got Browns fever, because if you have it, you need to see a doctor right away. Now, for everybody else...

Welcome, cool dudes, to the first "Born and Raised" of the 2007 season! In case you're new around here or are extremely forgetful, this is our much-anticipated weekly Browns mop-up column, in which we recap all the Browns' zany adventures!

This week, the Browns were extremely, extremely successful in not giving away the goods too early in the season. You don't want to show everyone your A-game right off the bat—you gotta keep those future opponents guessing! That's why the Crennel brain trust ingeniously decided to come out with the F-game in Week 1. After all, it's a marathon, not a sprint. Or, wait, is it a sprint, not a marathon? I can never remember. Oh, crap.

The award for worst performance of the afternoon goes unanimously to Charlie "Daylight Come An' Me Wanna" Frye. He was inaccurate. He was noodly-armed. He made horrible decisions. He literally didn't do anything right.

As an example, take the five times Charlie was sacked yesterday. By my admittedly subjective count, four of the five sacks were squarely Frye's fault. The first one was on Kevin Shaffer, who blew his assignment. Fine. But the second one occurred when Frye waited too long, tried to roll out of the pocket, and went immediately into the arms of James Farrior. The third sack was a coverage sack, in which the Steelers rushed more players than the Browns had blockers. Frye failed to find the open receiver fast enough, let alone throw the ball away. The fourth sack occurred after Frye waited a ridiculous amount of time, doing basically nothing until finally the Steelers were able to collapse the pocket. The last sack was another coverage sack—the Steelers rushed a cornerback (on Charlie's visible side) and again Frye made no attempt to throw the ball away.

It is no coincidence that, after Anderson came into the game, the Steelers recorded only one more sack. It was a coverage sack not unlike the one that finally knocked Frye out. Only this time, they blitzed two defensive backs, both of them on Derek's blind side. And Anderson was trying to throw the ball when he got hit, for what it's worth. Say what you will about Anderson, he gets rid of the ball quickly.

The question now, of course, is what to do at the quarterback position. The fans at the stadium clearly wanted Quinn to start right away. But for now, I'm willing to buy the argument that starting a rookie quarterback can diminish his overall career value. The best solution may just be the one where the Browns continue to take their lumps, with either Anderson or Frye (but please, not Frye!) taking the snaps. I fear that Quinn is going to become the starter sooner than he should be, not because Crennel is afraid for his job and feels he needs to win now, but because the other quarterbacks won't give him a choice.

And now for your regular items...

Play of the Week

Alex says: Why not take the easy way out and choose the longest gainer of the afternoon? That would be a 30-yard pass from Derek Anderson to Kellen Winslow in the third quarter. The play really turned what was looking to be another three-and-out for the Browns into a potentially-successful drive, and eventually their lone score of the game. That drive also featured another nice catch by Winslow, this time on the left sideline. But I'll go with the first one. I don't know why. Ugh, what a crappy game.

Corey says: That one scoring drive sure did look pretty. No surprise, the Browns didn't attempt a single rush on that drive until they had 1st-and-goal at the 4. Of course, we all know they only go into the deep passing mode when they're behind by enough that they have no choice. But I digress; my point is there were three beautiful passes from that drive that I could choose for Play of the Week. Since Alex took the obvious one, I'll go with Tim Carter's 22-yard catch, in which Anderson hit a wide open Carter in the middle of the field, then Kellen Winslow made a block that sprung Carter for another 5 yards or so after the catch. Nicely done.

Player of the Week

Alex says: Lawrence Vickers only got two carries and was the intended receiver twice more, but all four plays were a success (as defined by Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders as "40% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, and 100% of needed yards on third down"). First a reception for six yards on 2nd-and-3, then a four-yard gain on 1-and-10, another four on 3rd-and-1, and finally his one-yard touchdown catch. Not a bad way to begin your first season as a starter. Vickers might've been the only one on the offense who consistently got results this week.

Corey says: After a game like this one, it's easy to make blanket statements like "the whole team was awful; no one had a good game." But that is sloppy reporting. In fact, the Browns' best player, Leigh Bodden, was his usual lock-down self. When Leigh is on his game, he's like a ghost—you don't notice him at all. The fact is, the Steelers only tested Bodden once all afternoon, and the result was an incomplete pass. (This, according to my unofficial game charting. Bodden was officially credited with 5 tackles, but all of those came either on running plays, or in instances where Leigh was cleaning up for one of his teammates.) Now, part of that was Pittsburgh's obvious desire to attack Eric Wright (by my count, they tested Wright six times). But part of it, as we have seen for over two years now, is that teams simply don't throw in the vicinity of the Ghost Dawg when he's on the field. He just doesn't allow receivers to get open.

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"Obviously, I need to get better." —Charlie Frye

Unfortunately for Charlie, and Browns fans, there isn't much precedent for a quarterback of Frye's caliber improving much at this point in his career. Last season, Aaron Schatz ran similarity scores for Charlie and of the ten most-similar players over two seasons, only Drew Brees turned out to be good. But the differences between the two are immediately apparent to football fans: Brees has a strong arm and throws accurately; Frye might have the weakest arm of any starting QB of the last decade and while he throws a deadly accurate screen, most else is off-target. Ignoring the elephant in the room, Derek Anderson is probably the better choice for QB at this point. At least he has the physical tools to be successful. Whether he can harness them… who knows?

Corey says:

"We can't do anything but go up." —Jamal Lewis

Oh, Jamal, Jamal. You're obviously new around here. You must be used to playing on teams where this is about as bad as it can conceivably get. But let's be clear; we've seen worse. Much worse. So please don't tempt fate by saying grammatically awkward things like "We can't do anything but go up."

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: Paul Ernster's flubbed punt after the first series of the game set up an easy Steelers touchdown, but it also illustrated one of the greatest strengths of the Browns. Now, normally on a botched punt, the ball sails over the punter's head or bounces at his feet. But did you see the snap on this play? The ball hit Ernster on the hands. He didn't have to move a muscle and Ryan Pontbriand practically gift-wrapped the snap for him. It was a thing of beauty. What followed after the snap was an absolute disaster, but for just an instant, it was a perfect play.

Corey says: Alex, only you could turn what was obviously the special teams' worst moment of the game into a paean on the perfectness of the snap. What's truly ironic is that I am also selecting this disaster of a play as my Special Teams Moment of the Week, not because it advanced the Browns' chances of winning in any way, shape or form, but because it provided us with an inspiring moment of hilarity, as the official announced, "There are four fouls on the offense..." Four penalties on one play! Only the Browns could accomplish such an incredible feat, and on the first possession of the year, to boot! Get it, "boot"?

JaJuan Dawson Memorial Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: I'll go with safety Mike Adams, who, in the second quarter, stopped Allen Rossum for a three-yard loss on a punt return. Mike quite possibly could be following a long and distinguished line of Browns defensive back gunners, like all-around superstar Leigh Bodden or Obscure Brown of the Week legend Dyshod Carter. I'll be sure to watch him on punt coverage in future weeks. Believe it or not, Mike has an official website. Don't forget to grab some of that autographed merchandise!

Corey says: Boo-urns—you stole mine! Anyway, I'll go with someone who's probably not that obscure in the context of this week, but by season's end, will be all but forgotten to even the most masochistic of Browns fans: punter Paul Ernster. Ernster had himself a pretty terrible game, and in fact, we may have seen the last of him already, as the D-Zast-er will soon be healthy enough to jump back in there and dominate, as is his wont. So, uh, best of luck to you, Paul Ernster, in all your future endeavors. Thanks for the 0-yard punt!

Fashion Item of the Week

Alex says: During the game, I noticed a patch on Joe Jurevicius's jersey, a big, blocky C. For "captain," I assume. After checking around, Jurevicius, Hank Fraley, Andra Davis, Willie McGinest, and Phil Dawson are the team's captains for 2007. And after looking at some photographic evidence, I noticed that they too have the patch (I realize it's hard to see, just look at the left shoulder). Now, I'm not the Browns jersey scholar of the family—that title belongs to Corey—but this captain patch doesn't look familiar to me. And, as we all know, when it comes to Browns uniforms, change is bad. Very, very bad.

Corey says: Alex, the "C" patches are indeed new for this year, not only for the Browns, but for every team. I don't know whether the NFL is forcing every team to start wearing them, but I agree that the Browns' "C" patch is kind of ugly. I wish it were smaller, in the same font as the jersey numbers, and just a "C" (that is, not a rectangle with a "C" inside it). I would also like to know how someone like Hank Fraley becomes a team captain. Oh, that's right, it's the Browns!

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: Maybe I hold color commentators to an absurdly high margin, but it really irked me when Rich Gannon said that Alan Faneca has been a "consistent professional" despite his recent contract dispute. Oh really? Consistently professional? You mean he at no point started playing for no pay at all? I hate to nitpick, but seriously, Rich Gannon stinks.

Corey says: My Idiot of the Week is Joey Porter. What can I say? Old habits die hard.

Number of the Week

Alex says: 3.63, or the combined Adjusted Yards per Attempt for Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson. AY/A is simple to calculate (subtract 45 yards for each interception thrown and add 10 points for every touchdown pass to total passing yardage and divide by attempts) and probably is the best "simple" measure of quarterback play. So, unlike DVOA, you can do it at home. Anyway, among all QBs with greater than 100 attempts last season, only one had fewer than 3.63 AY/A: Chris Simms. Even Andrew Walter and Aaron Brooks were better than that. And Anderson and Frye have no one to blame but themselves for their woes. The only drops occurred when the ball was thrown behind a receiver or at his feet. All in all, we witnessed a pathetic display of passing.

Corey says: 23:26, or the precise number of minutes and seconds of the 2007 regular season elapsed before Charlie Frye was officially benched for his sucky performance. Seriously, was this the fastest benching of a quarterback listed at #1 on the depth chart in the history of the NFL? I don't have the resources to answer that question, but I'd like to think the answer is yes. Let's see if the Browns will become the fastest team in NFL history to burn through two QBs! Who knows, maybe they can even take a shot at three QBs! The sky's the limit!

Pythagorean Moral Standings

You may recall that last year, Alex and I tracked the Moral Standings for the AFC North. We figured, since the Browns don't win very many games, we may as well keep a tally on their moral victories. It turned out that the Browns notched a moral victory a surprising amount of the time. In fact, they made a little run at history, going a moral 15-0 before morally succumbing to the Texans in Week 17.

This year, however, we thought we'd do something a little bit different. In order to more accurately get at the heart of the moral qualities of the 4 teams in the Browns' division, we're going to tally Pythagorean moral wins. Think of it this way: the final score of this week's game was 34-7, Steelers. That counts as a loss for the Browns in the regular standings. But we all know, in our heart of hearts, that the Browns captured a moral victory yesterday afternoon. Thus, according to the moral standings as we tallied them last year, the Browns would be 1-0. But what was the moral score of this game, really? The Browns morally won, but it's not as if they pitched a moral shutout or anything. In fact, the moral score of yesterday's game was Browns 24, Steelers, 22. Based on that, we can assign the Browns 0.6 Pythagorean moral wins, and the Steelers 0.4 Pythagorean moral wins. The Bengals and Ravens, meanwhile will face each other tonight on Monday Night Football, so we'll have to catch them up next time.

            PMW  PML   pct
Cleveland   0.6  0.4  .600
Pittsburgh  0.4  0.6  .400
Cincinnati  0.0  0.0   --
Baltimore   0.0  0.0   --

Next week: The Browns upgrade to their D-game, causing the visiting Bengals to become so sick to their stomachs, they'll be clutching for the Pepto Bismol. We'll have all the gory details right here, on another thrilling "Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns"!

• Week 1: vs. Pittsburgh
• Week 2: vs. Cincinnati
• Week 3: at Oakland
• Week 4: vs. Baltimore
• Week 5: at New England
• Week 6: vs. Miami
• Week 7: Bye
• Week 8: at St. Louis
• Week 9: vs. Seattle
• Week 10: at Pittsburgh
• Week 11: at Baltimore
• Week 12: vs. Houston
• Week 13: at Arizona
• Week 14: at New York
• Week 15: vs. Buffalo
• Week 16: at Cincinnati

Booyashaka! It's time for Browns football, and the first of my weekly Browns previews. As I have done for two years now, the Friday before each Browns game, I'll be bringing you a statistical comparison of the Browns and their opponents-to-be, mostly using stats created by the smart people at Football Outsiders.

Before we get to the meat of the matter, allow me to say a word about DVOA ("defense-adjusted value over average"). DVOA is the metric on which most of my analysis will be based. It is expressed as a percentage. For offenses, a DVOA of 10.0%, say, means 10% better than league average. For defenses, a DVOA of 10.0% means 10% worse than average. DVOA can be used in reference to entire teams, individual units (like offense, defense, rushing offense, passing defense, etc.), or individual players (that is, passers, rushers and receivers).

Now, I can understand, especially if you're new around here, that you might be looking for a better explanation of DVOA than that. I will refer you to Football Outsiders' own "Methods to Our Madness", and also to my Browns preview from Week 1 of last season, in which I wrote a lengthy introduction answering the questions "Why do I choose DVOA?" and "Am I a nerd?". (Pay no attention to the actual preview itself, in which DVOA predicts the 2006 Saints to be bad. That would, uh, probably hurt my credibility, if you were to read that...)

Okay, let's get to the preview. As the season progresses, I will be able to cite more actual statistics, but for now, since no games have been played, we're going to have to rely on Football Outsiders' DVOA Projections, which do a reasonable job of predicting how teams will perform (seriously, 2006 Saints notwithstanding, the DVOA projections consistently do a better forecasting job than any other statistical model or individual expert, be he media analyst or gambling guru). Just bear in mind that in future weeks, there will be many more statistics in these previews, and the information will be more reliable.

Browns offense vs. Steelers defense:

               CLE offense  PIT defense
projected DVOA   -10.7%       -14.9%

Football Outsiders pegs the 2007 Browns for the league's 27th-best offense. That's still bad, but it would actually represent a significant improvement over 2006, when the Browns ranked 31st in the NFL with an offensive DVOA of -18.2%. Charlie Frye is not a good quarterback by any stretch (-22.5 DVOA in 2006), and Jamal Lewis is quite possibly even worse than Reuben Droughns, who was himself quite horrible last year (-20.1%). But the offensive line stands to be much better than 2006, and that alone will result in some improvement. Of course, it may take a few games for that improvement to manifest. Eric Steinbach's status for Sunday is still uncertain, and Joe Thomas will get his first real look at an NFL defense this weekend. It's important for us to keep that in mind, because...

The Steelers are projected to have the NFL's 2nd-best defense in 2007. Last year, they ranked 10th, with a DVOA of -6.6. It's worth noting that the Steelers' pass defense has ranked lower, by DVOA, than their run defense in each of the last four seasons. You've heard me say it before, but, given the fact that the Browns' idea of rushing the ball is to crowd 11 people into a mass at the line of scrimmage and "power" their way to a 1-yard gain, there is something to be said for cutting bait on the run game, and trying to pick apart Pittsburgh's sometimes-suspect secondary, especially the weak CB Ike Taylor (whom the Browns, like many an NFL team, have victimized in recent seasons). With a new offensive coordinator, we really don't know what we're getting, but if Rob Chudzinski's philosophy of offense is anything remotely similar to the stubborn conservatism of anyone who's called a Browns play during the Crennel era so far, we're in for another long season. Advantage: Steelers

Steelers offense vs. Browns defense:

               PIT offense  CLE defense
projected DVOA    -3.5%        -0.4%

Football Outsiders forecasts the Browns defense to be about league average (ranking 17th). Last season, they ranked 21st (5.0% DVOA), with a 15th-ranked pass defense and a 25th-ranked run defense. In fact, the Browns pass defense has ranked significantly (in some cases, ridiculously) better than their run defense in every single season of the DVOA era. Let's hope that trend continues, especially with the good news that the team's best player will be allowed to play Sunday, despite his recent persecution by the police.

The Steelers offense is predicted to rank 19th in DVOA, which would be a step down from last year, when they ranked 11th and put up a DVOA of 5.4%. From what I hear, there are grumblings in Pittsburgh about how the new head coach is going to change the offensive philosophy, getting away from what is believed to be the Steelers' bread and butter: power running. The reality, though, is that in recent seasons, when the Steelers offense has been effective, it's been an efficient passing game that's done the trick. Cleveland fans will surely remember Willie Parker running all over the Browns last season, but the much more important concern, if you ask me, is which Ben Roethlisberger will we see this weekend? Either way, if the Browns are to pull out a win in Week 1, it's more than likely going to come on the shoulders of the defense. Slight advantage: Browns

Special teams matchups:

               CLE s.t.  PIT s.t.
projected DVOA   0.6%     -1.2%

The range of values among Football Outsiders' projected special teams DVOAs is rather small, probably because special teams are less consistent from year to year. Still, the Browns are forecasted to have the NFL's 10th-best special teams, which is about what they had last year. The Browns have long had strong special teams, but have a new special teams coordinator this year, so time will tell. For what it's worth, their strengths last year were kickoff returns, punt returns, and punting, while their most glaring weakness was definitely field goal kicking. The Steelers have long had horrible special teams (though many believe that will be remedied in 2007 with the addition of kick returner Allen Rossum). They are projected to rank 26th in the NFL this season, according to DVOA. Advantage: Browns

Overall, the Steelers are still the better team. Even after such an encouraging offseason, the Browns' progress out of the cellar, if it is to come, is going to come gradually. That said, this Sunday's matchup is far from lopsided. The Browns can make up some of the ground they'll lose on offense by playing good defense and special teams. Let's hope for an exciting game. Enjoy it, Browns fans!