We at the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times are nothing if not obsessed with saving you money. That's why Alex and I decided to spend a couple hours before a recent Indians game methodically mapping out exactly who charges what for parking on Indians gamedays. Hopefully, you'll be able to use this guide to save yourself that extra dollar you'll need to buy that twelfth and final hot dog in the seventh inning.

Below you'll find a map of the Jacobs Field area, color coded to show you what it would have cost to park in each and every lot or garage that was open on the evening of Tuesday, May 15, 2007 (click to enlarge):



As you can see, there are a lot of options, ranging from $2 to $20. In a perfect world, we might expect the price to decrease at a constant rate as the parking lots get further from the stadium. In reality, while it's true the close-by lots are generally more expensive than the far-away ones, the relationship between price and walking distance is hardly one-to-one, as you can see in this scatterplot (click to enlarge):



In estimating walking distance for each parking lot, I used Google Earth to determine the shortest route along existing city streets from the center of each parking lot to the nearest Jacobs Field entrance, whether that's in left field, center field, or behind home plate.

Obviously, this method doesn't account for a couple of things--like the walking you'd have to do to get from the fourth floor of a parking garage down to street level, or the fact that you may have opportunities to shorten your walk by jaywalking, cutting across empty lots, etc. It also doesn't account for the fact that a couple of the parking lots (south of the stadium) require you to walk up a steep hill. And I'm not even considering the fact that there are other variables in play here, besides price and relative walking distance. For example, you might be willing to pay more to park under a roof, or to park somewhere where you'll have an easy time exiting after the game is over, or even to park somewhere where you don't have to turn your keys over to a lot attendant.

All that said, I think I can use the price and distance data I've collected to make some guesses about the best deals (and biggest rip-offs) in Indians Parking Land:

The best deals

• Any of the garages/lots between Erie and Bolivar next to the cemetery. Price: $5. Distance: between 0.13 and 0.23 miles from center field gate. There are three locations here; the one closest to the stadium is a garage while the other two are regular lots. The beauty of these locations is that they are accessible from both Erie (the brick road that abuts the cemetery) and Bolivar. So, despite one-way traffic restrictions, you can enter and exit without worrying about traffic being at a standstill on E. 9th St. I haven't parked at any of these places (yet) so I can't vouch for the pleasantness of the "parking experience", but in terms of price and distance, this is hands-down the best value there is.
• Lot on north side of Bolivar, half a block from E. 9th. Price: $7. Distance: 0.18 miles from center field gate. Not counting the aforementioned Erie/Bolivar garage, to get any closer to the stadium than this $7 lot, you'd have to pay $10 or more. That's pretty good value.
• Garage on southeast corner of Prospect and E. 9th. Price: $10. Distance: 0.14 miles from center field gate. The nice thing about this garage is that it has access points on both E. 9th and Prospect. And it's extremely close to the stadium. Not having parked there, though, I can't tell you about the exiting situation. It's kind of a large garage, so they might get a little backed up at the end of the game, I don't know.
• Garage on north side of Huron, halfway between Ontario and Prospect. Price: $10. Distance: 0.15 miles from left field gate. This garage is comparable to the one just mentioned in terms of price and distance. The only drawback might be dealing with the exodus of cars from the main Jacobs Field garage across the street. Speaking of which...
• Jacobs Field garage. Price: $12. Distance: 0.04 miles from left field gate. Okay, bear with me here. The Jacobs Field garage (or Gateway east garage) is hardly cheap, and is known to cause its fair share of exiting headaches. If you park there, however--especially if you happen to get a spot near the staircase--you have essentially no walking to do: you're at the left field gate. There are a number of lots out there that charge $15 or $20 dollars to park further away, so if you're a lazy bastard who doesn't need to get home in a hurry, this is actually a great value for you.

The biggest rip-offs

• Garage on northeast corner of W. 6th and Huron. Price: $8. Distance: 0.59 miles from left field gate. I'm not sure what, exactly, is going on at this garage. They appear to offer valet parking, which suggests people park there for other things besides Indians games. At any rate, the price is way above the market rate for such a far-away location.
• Lot on south side of Superior near W. Prospect. Price: $6. Distance: 0.64 miles from left field gate. This is another of the farthest possible parking options for Indians games. People may also be parking here for access to the Warehouse District restaurants. Regardless, it's not a good value for baseball goers.
• Garage on east side of Ontario, between Prospect and Public Square. Price: $10. Distance: 0.47 miles from left field gate. This garage is way too far away to be charging $10. I could see charging that for Cavs games, which are closer by, but not Indians games.
• Tower City Amphitheater parking, on north side of Canal. Price: $2. Distance: 0.66 miles from left field gate. I'm not talking about the Tower City parking, which itself is kind of far away to be charging $6, but isn't ridiculous. No, I'm talking about the Tower City Amphitheater parking. You access it by driving down into the flats and taking Canal. After you park, you climb some stairs to where the regular Tower City parking is located, then take the RTA walkway along with everyone else. They only charge $2, but even that is hardly worth all the walking--and all the stairs. Distance-wise, this was the farthest lot we found open.

In closing, I just want to point out that the information in this guide only represents what was available on May 15, 2007. It is very likely that the prices go up when the Indians draw more fans to the ballpark (for example, on weekends). It is also likely that more locations remain open to Indians fans on those occasions than are on my map. It's also likely that prices go up on nights when the Cavs have a home game (especially west of the ballpark), or even when there are major events at Playhouse Square (northeast of the ballpark, that is). In that regard, this guide is useful as a general reference, but will hardly guarantee you the best value.

I don't expect that my publishing this information will actually have any effect on the parking prices downtown, but I will be interested to see how prices change in various locations as the Indians (presumably) get closer to a playoff berth. Perhaps at some point in the future I'll do this exercise again, so we can track the changes. In the meantime, happy parking! And enjoy that extra hot dog; consider it a personal gift from me.

Alex Rubin grew impatient standing in line. "Of all the days to buy tickets to an Indians game at the box office—dollar dog night!" he moaned.

"Oh, quiet down. It's not so bad," reasoned his older, wiser brother Corey. "We won't even miss an inning."

The two brothers soon reached the front of the line. "Two tickets please," said Corey, reaching for the two months allowance he'd saved for the tickets. "Thank you."

"Hey Cor, what's the first thing you're going to do when we get inside? I know what I'm going to do."

"And what's that?"

"Eat Applestix!"

"That figures. Your mind is always on food!"

Once inside Jacobs Field's tall iron gates, Alex took off running towards section 155 behind home plate. Corey followed, but struggled to keep up. When he finally caught up, he noticed the alarmed expression on his younger brother's face.

"I can't believe they're gone!" Alex cried.

"What are?"

"Johnny Applestix!"

Corey saw that the stand that used to sell Johnny Applestix now sold other, lesser treats. "You're right. But maybe you can still buy them at Strickland's stands." During the 2006 season, Strickland's Frozen Custard offered Johnny Applestix at each location in Jacobs Field.

The boys hurried to the nearest Strickland's stand and found there too Johnny Applestix had gone missing.

"For Pete's sake, what's going on here?" Corey kvetched.

A steely look came over Alex's brown eyes, and he said "I don't know, brother. But we're going to get to the bottom of it."

* * *

"I still can't believe Johnny Applestix went missing!" Alex said. "How are we going to find them?"

"I'm not sure," Corey replied. The brothers were sitting across from each other in their family room. Corey was stroking his beard. "Let's do some research on the Internet."

Alex pulled out his ever-present laptop—he was a blogger, after all—and began typing. "Not only are Johnny Applestix missing, so is www.johnnyapplestix.com!"

"Jeepers! This is worse than I thought." Corey furrowed his brow and began stroking his beard. "Wait a minute, brother! What about an archived version of their website? Maybe it'll have a phone number."

"Great thinking, Cor." Alex went back to work on his laptop. "I've got it: 1-888-269-0429. Why don't you give it a call?"

Corey started dialing. "The number's been disconnected. It's just an error message. I guess we'll never crack this case."

"Not so fast, brother. I was comparing two versions of the old Applestix website and I noticed that last spring their mailing address changed, from 7990 Day Drive in Parma to 17829 Fernway Road in Shaker Heights."

"Fernway Road, that's a residential address. Maybe the company president lived there. But 7990 Day Drive"—Corey started stroking his beard—"isn't that the address of Parmatown Mall?"

"That would make sense. Besides Jacobs Field, Johnny Applestix were only sold in the mall's food court."

"It would appear that the business was failing and, for a short while, run out of that home on Fernway Road."

"You're probably right." This explanation didn't completely satisfy the brothers, though. Alex, without thinking, asked to himself, "But whose business was it?"

"I remember the news reports when Johnny Applestix were first introduced. Two friends from… where was it?" Corey sat stroking his beard. "I can't remember. We'll never crack this case."

"Not so fast, hermano. You're forgetting a detective's best friend!"

"And what is that?"

"The library, of course!"

* * *

Walking into the local branch of the Cuyahoga County Public Library, Alex and Corey passed by their favorite sections and headed straight to the microfiche. "We can search through old newspaper articles on Johnny Applestix here," Alex excitedly reported.

They found the rolls they were looking for and loaded them into the giant viewing machine. "It appears that the company founders are named Tony Dellamano and Mark Kuperman."

"That certainly rings a bell," Corey said. "What's the most recent news item about the company?"

"An article in Crain's Cleveland Business from November 21, 2005."

"Gee whiz, that was a while ago!" Stroking his beard, Corey added, "Maybe if we search for these Tony Dellamano and Mark Kuperman fellows, we'll have more luck."

"Hm, I'm not getting anywhere with Dellamano. But look what I found on Kuperman!"

"What did you find?"

"Apparently, he took a job last June with a Lakewood company called Hotel & Leisure Advisors."

* * *

After a long afternoon at the library, the boys sat in front of the fireplace, back home. Relaxing on the couch, Corey said, "I suppose we can close the book on Johnny Applestix, eh brother?"

"I guess so. With their web site gone, the 800 number disconnected, and the mailing address having changed to a residential location before disappearing altogether, I'd say the company is out of business."

"And don't forget that one co-founder is nowhere to be seen while the other has already taken a job someplace else."

Alex sat back and wistfully added, "I'm really going to miss Johnny Applestix. Indians games won't be the same."

"I feel sorry for the all the kids who never had the chance to eat them," Corey lamented.

The boys fell quiet in thought. Eventually, Alex broke the silence. "I can't believe I'll never eat another Johnny Applestick."

"They can always be revived. Perhaps another company will buy the recipe and re-open the stand at Jacobs Field."

"You think it could happen?"

"There's always hope, brother. There's always hope."

So, here we are again. Cavaliers versus Pistons. Did you expect anything else?

Cavaliers offense vs. Pistons defense

• Shooting – Once again, the Pistons rank fifth in the N.B.A. in shooting defense, with an eFG% allowed of .477. Unfortunately, the Cavaliers' shooting is no longer "rather middling." Instead, they've fallen to twenty-second with an eFG% of .484. This is Detroit's defensive wheelhouse and considering how certain Cavs (ahem, Larry Hughes) fell into the trap of relying on long-range jumpers against the Nets, the team should adapt their offensive strategy to be effective. If anything, that means more ball movement and driving the lane.
• Turnovers – The Cavaliers hold a slight edge here. They finished the year ninth in turnover ratio—committing a TO on 15.2% of possessions—while the Pistons got the ball back on 16.2%, good for thirteenth in the league. Turnovers ought not to be a deciding factor when the Cavs have the ball.
• Offensive rebounding – In the Cavaliers' wins over the Nets, they had a clear edge in offensive rebounds. But in their losses, the Nets were able to keep Gooden, Ilgauskas, and Varejão off the glass. With the Cavs' low-efficiency shooting, this is a recipe for disaster. They need second chances to make up for their poor jump-shooting. Reaching the Eastern Conference Finals shows how effective they've been at this—third in the N.B.A. grabbing 29.7% of available offensive rebounds. Much like last season, the Pistons are vulnerable in this regard. They ended the season as the sixth-worst team, allowing the opponent to grab 29.1% of available offensive boards.
• Getting to the foul line – The Cavs seemingly should excel at getting to the line. LeBron and Hughes can be lethal driving the line and Zydrunas, Gooden, and Varejão repeatedly get hacked underneath on tip-ins. However, this isn't the case. The team finished the season twenty-fourth in free throws per field goal attempt at .223. The Pistons, meanwhile, are better than average at keeping the opponents off the foul line (tenth, .234 FT/FGA).

Every Cleveland fan knows that the Cavaliers are a defensive team first and foremost, which makes watching their offensive possessions an exercise in frustration. I don't know about you, but the most commonly heard things around our TV during this playoffs have been "Drive the lane!" and "No, Larry Hughes!" Flashes of brilliance never stay for long, as the shooters go cold or Sasha Pavlovic dribbles off his foot (although he dribbled off of someone else's foot last game and I appreciate the change of pace). Hence the team's sub-par offensive efficiency—scoring 105.5 points per 100 possessions, landing them eighteenth in the N.B.A.

Led by their superb shooting defense, the Pistons overcame their weakness on the offensive glass. Somehow the whole has been greater than the sum of its parts and Detroit had the sixth-best defensive efficiency, giving up 103.9 points per 100 possessions. Since, as I said before, the Cavaliers are a defense-first team, they'll need their offense to step up to get past the Pistons. As we saw in last year's playoffs, the key to this is LeBron driving the lane. They can't afford to settle for jumpers.

Cavaliers defense vs. Pistons offense

• Shooting – For a strong offensive team, the Pistons are surprisingly inefficient shooters. Their eFG% of .488 was tenth-worst, or one better than the Cavaliers'. The Cavs defense though has done a good job keeping their opponents from making easy shots. They allowed an eFG% of .480 this season, leaving them as seventh-best in the league.
• Turnovers – The Cavaliers may be pretty good at forcing turnovers (16.3% turnover ratio, good for ninth in the N.B.A.) but the Pistons were tops in the league at avoiding them (13.5%). The more turnovers the Cavs can coax from Detroit the better, of course, I just wouldn't suggest making this a focal point of attack—their time would be better spent banging their heads against a wall.
• Offensive rebounding – The Pistons who are lax to box out on the defensive end don't mind crashing the offensive boards now and again. The team ranks eleventh in the league with an offensive rebound percentage of 28.3%. Fortunately for us, as dominant as the Cavs are rebounding offensively, they're even better rebounding defensively. Their opponents snatched up only 24.2% of offensive rebounds, landing them second place in the standings.
• Getting to the foul line – The Pistons get to the line just a little bit less than league-average—23.7 FT/FGA, eighteenth in the N.B.A. And the Cavaliers send their opponents to the line just around league-average—24.3 FT/FGA allowed, fourteenth. Don't expect this to be a turning point for the series.

The Cavaliers are a defensive team. Their 101.3 points per 100 possessions allowed was fourth-best this season. The Pistons historically have been a defensive team as well. But since the arrival of Flip Saunders, they've been much more balanced. In fact, this season both their offense (109.2) and their defense (103.9) were the league's sixth-best units. With such a strong attack, the Cavaliers are going to have to exploit every advantage they have to win this series. And one of those is that their defense has been just a tiny bit better than the Pistons' offense.

Starting lineups

• Point guard – Chauncey Billups is everything a coach dreams of in a point guard: efficient scorer, tough defender, strong with the basketball, good passer, smart. Larry Hughes is everything a Cleveland fan dreamt of in a point guard: not Eric Snow. But this whole not-Eric-Snow act is wearing a little thin with Hughes's unchecked abuse of jump shooting. I like Mike Brown, but I am left to wonder why he doesn't curtail Hughes's constant bricking, and refocus him on driving the lane.
• Shooting guard – It seems to be all-or-nothing with Sasha Pavlovic. Either he's the star of the game or he's non-existent. I think that's a consequence of Mike Brown's penchant to play the hot hand in the second half. If Sasha doesn't impress in the first ten minutes, he may not see much action for the rest of the game. Richard Hamilton continues to chug along in his own way. His numbers are nearly identical to last season. As everyone knows, he's a good shooter who can occasionally create a shot, but not much else.
• Small forward – This is the easiest section of the preview to write. LeBron James's will be done.
• Power forward – It warms my heart to no end that public sentiment on Drew Gooden is turning. He's no longer the aloof power forward who doesn't have his head in the game on defense. Instead he's an athletic rebounding machine with a nice jump hook. Nevertheless, Drew has basically been the same player the entire time. Squaring up against him is Rasheed Wallace, who's not quite what he used to be. His outside shooting remains a threat, but really his three-point percentage is nothing special. Gooden is the better player, don't be fooled.
• Center – Losing the overrated Ben Wallace didn't do the Pistons much harm, as they picked up a seemingly rejuvenated Chris Webber to fill his place. Actually though, Webber just played probably the second-worst season of his career statistically. He can score, but injuries have taken their toll and he can't really jump anymore. Zydrunas is probably a more mobile player, which is strange to think about.

The Nets series wasn't very encouraging defensively for the Cavs, but when the team showed some maximum effort on defense—the fourth quarter of Game 4—the Cavaliers looked like an elite. They're going to have to hunker down even more so for the Pistons, who rightfully have been called the best team in the Eastern Conference all season. My advice to the Cavaliers is to play enthusiastic defense, drive the lane, not let Larry Hughes shoot jumpers, and get very lucky. It's a recipe for success! Go Cavs!

Alex came across this job posting on Craigslist:

You will be paid watching Indians games. You need to speak Chinese mandarin fluently, understand baseball rules and go to the games. You will be reporting scores of the game through the phone in Chinese mandarin. Tickets and/or other expenses are covered plus $25 per hour compensation and periodic merit bonus.

Basically, what I want to know is, how is this enterprise--whatever the hell it's for--even the least bit profitable? Who in China, for example, is paying for Indians season tickets (and, I would think, other teams' season tickets too), plus salary and other costs, rather than find someone--anyone--in all of China who is capable of reading English-language websites and summarizing the game recaps in Mandarin?

More to the point, is the job simply to attend the game, then call a phone number and say the final score (in Mandarin) into the phone? That's the most ridiculous job ever.

The funniest part might be the last line: "Tickets and/or other expenses are covered plus $25 per hour compensation and periodic merit bonus." Merit bonus? Like, if you do a commendable job saying baseball scores into a phone, you can earn a bonus, on top of the $75 you're already making for attending an Indians game for free.

You could probably pay for an entire year's worth of Mandarin lessons with the dough you'd rake in from a single homestand. Somebody go for it! Please?

The Cavaliers are simply shocked that LeBron was pushed off this season's All-N.B.A. First Team to its second-team counterpart. To me, the news was a little less alarming. I'd given it no thought whatsoever. Frankly, who really cares? It should be obvious to everyone by now that writers who vote for these kinds of awards know next to nothing. Rather than backing that up with statistics, I only need two words: Mo Vaughn.

That said, reading Brian Windhorst's insinuations of a dirty voting process caught my attention. His back-of-the-envelope calculations on the impossibility of Amare Stoudemire's votes hinted at a juicy conspiracy, and everyone loves an N.B.A. conspiracy theory.

I went to the source to check on these numbers. Knowing only the total points accumulated (remember that first-team votes are worth five points while second- and third-team are worth three and one, respectively) and the number of first-team votes casted for each player, I attempted to figure out the number of each's second- and third-team votes using a little linear combination. Thank you, linear algebra.

First off, the number of points Windhorst quotes for Stoudemire is wrong. He says 494, which is actually the number LeBron got; Stoudemire only got 351. There goes your conspiracy. Anyway, we know that Amare accumulated 36 first-team votes and, assuming he was named on every ballot, I figure he received 39 second- and 54 third-team votes. That's pretty weak for a so-called "All-N.B.A. First Teamer." Using the same methodology, I found that LeBron received 64 first-, 54.5 second-, and 10.5 third-team votes. I realize that's not actually possible. More likely, He received 55 votes for the second team and nine for the third and was left off of one ballot. To that one misguided writer, may LeBron have mercy on your soul.

Repeating this process for the other four members of the first team led to few interesting results. Basically, Dirk Nowitzki was also absent from one ballot, which just goes to show you, writers are idiots. In the interest of completeness, here's what I concluded:

• Steve Nash – 129 first-team, 0 second-team, 0 third-team
• Kobe Bryant – 128 first-team; 1 second-team; 0 third-team
• Dirk Nowitzki – 125 first-team; 3 second-team; 0 third-team (left off 1 ballot)
• Tim Duncan – 94 first-team; 34 second-team; 1 third-team
• Amare Stoudemire – 36 first-team; 39 second-team; 54 third-team

Oh yeah, and

• LeBron James – 64 first-team; 55 second-place; 9 third-place (left off 1 ballot)

Statistically, LeBron James was the better player than Amare Stoudemire this season and even the voters realized this. The Chosen One dwarfs him in both first- and second-team votes. There isn't any nefarious conspiracy going on, however. Due to the positional rules of the All-N.B.A. teams, Stoudemire was the highest-ranking center while LeBron was the third-highest forward. Hence, Stoudemire is a first teamer and LeBron is the best of the rest. Them's just the breaks.

But the voters' relaxed attitudes towards positions really irks me. They're asked to vote for two guards, two forwards, and a center. (Personally, I believe they should vote for a point guard, shooting guard, small forward, power forward, and center. But I can't blame writers for voting for two power forwards instead of one SF and one PF if they're not asked to.) I wondered whether the writers voters were being completely straight with their choices, though—Tim Duncan certainly seems like a center to me.

Using 82games's five-man unit statistics for each player (here is LeBron's, for example) as a meaningful sample of their playing time, I compiled the percentage notched at every position:

• Steve Nash – 100% PG
• Kobe Bryant – 92% SG; 8% SF
• Dirk Nowitzki – 100% PF
• Tim Duncan – 64% C; 36% PF
• Amare Stoudemire – 100% C
• LeBron James – 100% SF

Guess what? I was right.

Tim Duncan has been playing an awful lot of minutes at center for a "power forward," it seems. But if he were reclassified as a center, Amare Stoudemire would be bumped from the first team—being bested 573 points to 351. (Yes, I realize that if Duncan were considered a center his vote totals would change, but allow me this one fantasy here.) This would open a spot on the first team at forward and the next leading vote-getter at forward would move up. That man would be LeBron James. I'm a little more upset now. Stupid basketball writers.

Leigh Bodden is the best player on the Browns. He's one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL--maybe even the best. Still, he hones his craft utterly anonymously, partly because the Browns stink have stunk recently, partly because he went undrafted, and partly because he's only been on the scene for a couple years.

That said, Football Outsiders has been on the bandwagon for well over a year now, and, not to toot my own horn, but I personally created the Leigh Bodden bandwagon from scratch before he even played a down as a cornerback (proof). Thus, it's exciting, though not surprising, to find that Bodden has been placed (along with several other players) on the cover of this year's Pro Football Prospectus.

Edit: Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders informs me that the cover with Bodden's picture on it is a mock version, and that it's more likely the final cover will feature a different Brown, Brady Quinn. This is a setback for Boddenthusiasts everywhere, but hey, I like Quinn too.

Now, we at the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times are nothing if not constantly bringing you all the latest scoops with our trademark Exclusives™ and insider info, so get ready for a big one: Leigh Bodden loves popcorn. I mean, really, really loves popcorn. So far, I've spotted him at both Game 2 of the Wizards series (seated next to Kellen Winslow) and Game 2 of the Nets series (seated next to--I think--Andra Davis), and believe me when I say he was eating popcorn the entire game, both times. And not in spurts, either--Leigh's popcorn consumption is about as consistent as his suppressive coverage of Ochenta y Cinco.

Naturally, we'll have more to say about Leigh Bodden's love affair with tasty, tasty popcorn as the fallout from this story starts to unfold. Remember, you heard it here first!

Far be it for me to encroach upon my brother's role as Czar of Cavs Playoff Series Previewing and Extreme Web Standards Compliance, but you see, Alex is mired in an end-of-schoolyear move, so he decided to farm this one out. I will do my best to honor his example as I take a statistical look at the New Jersey Nets, vis-à-vis those lovable Chevaliers de Cleveland.

Following tradition, I'll compare the teams in each of the Four Factors, then I'll compare the starting lineups side by side. Presumably, the Cavs are now going to be facing a team that is actually, you know, NBA quality. Let's see how they stack up:

Cavaliers offense vs. Nets defense

• Shooting – Efficient shooting is not typically the Cavs' forte. In the regular season, they ranked 22nd in the NBA with a .484 eFG% (thanks Larry!). The Nets, meanwhile, ranked 10th in eFG% allowed, at .490. New Jersey has a clear advantage in this area, though it is an area the Cavs have seemed willing to concede for much of the season.
• Turnovers – The Cavs were the 9th best team at avoiding turnovers this year, committing .152 per possession. Coincidentally, the Nets also forced .152 turnovers per possession this year, which isn't that good--it ranks them 22nd. The Cavs should be able to hold on to the ball without incident in this series.
• Rebounding – The Cavaliers make up for their inefficient shooting by generating volume; that is, not turning the ball over, and getting second chance points. Those two things are their bread and butter, and they should be able to do both against New Jersey. The Cavs are the NBA's 3rd best offensive rebounding team, hauling in 29.7% of available boards. The Nets are no slouches on the defensive glass, hauling in 74.4% of their available boards, good enough for 9th in the NBA. Still, it won't be enough to overcome the board-gobbling machine that is the Cavs offense.
• Getting to the foul line – In terms of getting to the line, the Cavs are slightly below league average; they attempt .321 free throws per field goal attempt. The bigger problem for the Cavs has been making those free throws. We all know how badly they struggled to sink their foul shots early in the year. We also know they improved significantly in the second half of the regular season, and especially in Round 1 of the playoffs. I might even go so far as to say that the Cavs' free throw shooting is now a team strength. The Nets' opponents attempt .349 free throws per field goal attempt, which is more than league average, so the Cavs ought to get their opportunities--the question will be whether they can convert.

All told, the Cavs offense and the Nets defense are pretty evenly matched. The Cavs score about 105.5 points per 100 possessions, good enough for 18th in the NBA, while the Nets allow about 106.2 points per 100 possessions, good enough for 13th. The Cavs will try to overwhelm the Nets with extra possessions, while the Nets will try to force the Cavs into bad shots. Ready to tip the scales one way or the other is the Cavs' free throw shooting; if they can keep up their recent free throw hotness, watch out.

Cavaliers defense vs. Nets offense

• Shooting – The Cavs rank 7th in the league in eFG% allowed (.480), while the Nets, for their part, rank 7th in eFG% (.504). This will be a good matchup of strength on strength.
• Turnovers – The Cavs force .163 turnovers per possession, which ranks them 9th in the NBA. The Nets commit .157 turnovers per possession, which ranks them 13th in the NBA. Expect the Cavaliers to create their fair share of turnovers in this series.
• Rebounding – Just as the Cavs offense generates volume by not wasting possessions, the Mike Brown defense takes possessions away from its opponent, by forcing turnovers and denying second chances. The Governors of the Glass rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive rebounding, hauling in 75.8% of available boards, while the Nets rank a pitiful 26th in offensive rebounding, grabbing just 24.6% of available boards. New Jersey better hope its first shots go in, because it's not going to be getting many second shots.
• Getting to the foul line – The Nets are quite good at getting to the line, averaging .338 free throws per field goal attempt, but less than stellar at making their free throws (72.7%). This seems to be personified most in Richard Jefferson and Mikki Moore, who attempted the 2nd and 3rd most free throws on the team in the regular season, but converted just 73.3% and 68.1%, respectively. The Cavs defense, by the way, is about average in terms of keeping their opponents off the line--they allow .331 free throws per field goal attempted.

As you know, the Cavs have an awesome defense. They rank 4th in the NBA, allowing 101.3 points per 100 possessions. The Nets have an okay offense which scores 106.1 points per 100 possessions, to rank 16th in the NBA. Obviously, the Cavs have the advantage here. The Nets will have to hope they can get hot with their shooting. That's what it's going to take, because the Cavs will leave them little room for error.

Starting lineups

• Point guard – Through most of the regular season, Larry Hughes was a major liability on offense (despite being a stud on defense). Conversely, one of the reasons the Cavs' offensive efficiency went through the roof during the Wizards series was the fact that Larry managed to curb some of his high-risk, low-reward tendencies (that, plus he got lucky on a few extra long jumpers). Once again, the Cavs' offensive success hinges on whether Larry plays smart or plays Hughesball. Jason Kidd, of course, is one of the more solid point guards around--he is an assist machine, he doesn't turn the ball over, and he even finished the year second on the Nets in Rebound Rate (13.2), behind Josh Boone. I'll give this one to Kidd without batting an eye.
• Shooting guard – Obviously, Vince Carter is the Nets' best scorer, and is enjoying (arguably) the best shooting season of his career (.559 TS%). Sasha Pavlovic, meanwhile, may have the best Wikipedia photo in the NBA but he doesn't quite stack up to Carter at this early stage of his career.
• Small forward – WE ARE ALL WITNESSES (even Richard Jefferson). AMEN.
• Power forward – It is here, in the frontcourt, that the Cavs' true advantage in this series is manifest. Mikki Moore is an efficient scorer for a big man, but he is no match for Drew Gooden (or any Cavs big man) when it comes to rebounding. Moore hauls in about 11.4% of the rebounds that are available to him. No Cavs big man hauls in less than 13.8%. Gooden hauls in 17.7%. 'Nuff said.
• Center – What I said about Mikki Moore applies to Jason Collins too, except Collins doesn't even have decent shooting to fall back on. Collins' strength is... nothing. With his inferior D-rating of 109, he ought to get destroyed by Ilgauskas or whoever else he has to guard. Meanwhile, he only rebounds about 10.1% of the boards that are available to him. Cue the refrain.

The Cavs are better than the Nets; of that I have little doubt. The Nets, however, will prove to be a much tougher foe than the Wizards were, and have been playing very well of late. I don't expect this series to be a walk in the cake, as Dikembe Mutombo might say. Whatever happens, enjoy it, Cavs fans! And I promise Alex will be back in time for the next Playoff Preview Extravaganza!

That being Keith Woolner, of Baseball Prospectus fame, naturally. This probably won't garner any ink in the Plain Dealer, but presumably, this move will have more of an effect on the Indians' pennant hopes than sending down "Big League" Choo. If you don't know much about Woolner, my handy copy of Baseball Prospectus 2007 says,

Keith Woolner lives in Cary, North Carolina with his wife and son, and works in the software industry, A lifelong Red Sox fan, he has been analyzing and writing about baseball for over 15 years. He earned undergraduate degrees from M.I.T. in Mathematics, Computer Science, and Management, and a Master's from Stanford University in Decision Analysis. While best known for inventing VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), Keith has written numerous research articles on topics such as catcher game-calling, replacement level theory, the effects of high pitch count, win expectancy, and revenue sharing. As head of Baseball Prospectus's R&D, he developed and maintains the huge database of statistics that powers the BP website's stat reports.

Databases and numbers! Yes!

Of all the big name sabermetricians I can think of off the top of my head I'd want working for the Indians, Woolner is in the top tier, along with Nate Silver, Tom Tango, and Ken Tremendous. (Well, at least to write the game wrap-ups. No one actually reads Anthony Castrovince, right?)

Accompanied by the news that Dan Rosenbaum has been advising the Cavaliers, this truly is a good time to be a stats geek in Cleveland. Hooray!