Last updated: 7:40 PM

The first day of the draft has come and gone and now it's time for the real reason we love the draft: obscure players with funny names! Of the name prospects I listed on Day 1, only Tony Ugoh, Sabby Piscitelli, and Yamon Figurs are no longer available. Keep your fingers crossed for a Quinn-to-Zinger connection!

As for the events of yesterday, it'd be hard to find a Browns fan not floating on air. The Browns turned the #3, #36, #67, #103, and next year's first-round selection into three first-round talents (including two Top 5 players), Joe Thomas, Brady Quinn, and Eric Wright. Although knee-jerk reactions the day after the draft are almost exclusively stupid and misguided, "experts" everywhere were lauding the team for making a splash. It's hard not to be wrapped up in the excitement. Last night, I lay awake imagining Brady-to-Braylon touchdowns. Am I alone?

12:59 PM

Corey says: The Browns' next pick is finally coming up! Before we get to that, though, this morning I listened to Joe Thomas' and Brady Quinn's conference calls with the Cleveland media (which were conducted yesterday; true press conferences are happening as we speak). Go to the Browns' official site and you can hear them for yourself. Thomas' call was particularly entertaining, as he was literally fishing on Lake Michigan while fielding questions from the likes of Tony Grossi et al. Thomas is definitely a character. He also seems to appreciate the so-called "blue collar" image of Cleveland (comparing it to his hometown of Milwaukee), as it was seemingly all he could talk about.

Quinn comes off as simply wanting to say all the right things, and being perhaps not the sharpest knife in the drawer--but in a good, football-golden-boy kind of way. The conference call I really recommend you listen to is Charlie Weis' (also available on the Browns' official site). Even though Coach Weis is obviously biased when talking about Quinn, his praise for him was compelling enough to get me really, really excited for the Quinn era. I am fully convinced that Quinn can be more effective than Charlie Frye as early as Week 1.

Thoughts on the Browns' fifth rounder in a few...

1:29 PM

Corey says: The Browns drafted Brandon McDonald, a cornerback from Memphis. As far as I can tell, the only notable thing about this young man is that he's Steve McNair's cousin. Perhaps he'll be used for reconnaissance on the Ravens playbook. McDonald did return punts in college, but he wasn't all that great at it. Beyond that, I got nothing.

It's not likely the Browns are going to be able to get an impact player with one of their two remaining picks, so is anyone surprised they haven't made an attempt yet to upgrade the defensive line, whether at nose tackle or end? Okay, maybe after a couple of free agent signings, the Browns aren't looking for a DE, but they could certainly use someone to back up/replace Ted Washington. Last year, they grabbed Babatunde in the sixth round, which was a great coup for Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times readers everywhere, and was a brilliant plan, a draft steal, and all that, but so far it hasn't worked out too well. I don't want to say the Babatunde experiment is over yet, but still, the defensive line depth chart is hardly settled, yes?

2:55 PM

Alex says: Perhaps Corey has forgotten about Shaun Smith, the nosetackle signed away from Cincinnati and heir apparent to Ted Washington. If I remember correctly, Smith's signing was widely analyzed as a vote of no confidence in Babatunde. Which, I must tell no one, is stupid. You just wait and see what havoc Babatunde will wreak on opponents' backfields.

3:37 PM

Corey says: The Browns have traded with the Cowboys for the third time this draft! Phil Savage wasn't kidding when he said he and Jerry Jones "speak the same language". This time, they've swapped sixth rounders and the Browns have picked up an extra seventh rounder. The Browns' new sixth round pick is coming up soon, so stay tuned.

3:54 PM

Corey says: The Browns draft Melila Purcell III, a defensive end from Hawaii and future multiple recipient of the Obscure Brown of the Week prize. Melila was born in that football breeding ground: Pago Pago, American Samoa (actually, several of his relatives were teammates of his at Hawaii and he had a cousin who played in the NFL). Great pick!

5:43 PM

Alex says: Corey and I make no bones about our love for interesting names. You can only imagine my excitement for the Browns probable final choice of the afternoon: Syndric Steptoe, a wide receiver out of Arizona.

Earlier in the seventh round, the Browns selected defensive end Chase Pittman from LSU. Not a bad name—I see many newspaper puns centering on "Chase" in his future—but it's no Epsilon Williams. How the final round shook out is a nice representative of how the entire draft went name-wise for the Browns: bad name followed by better name, and repeat.

Don't believe me? Let's review, with imaginary Name Points:

1. Joe Thomas, 1 – So. Boring.
2. Brady Quinn, 4 – Nothing special, though names starting with "Q" can't hurt
3. Eric Wright, 2 – Back to square one.
4. Brandon McDonald, 4 – Like Quinn, nothing special, but I have a soft spot for Scots
5. Melila Purcell, 8 – I like where this is going.
6. Chase Pittman, 5 – They could do worse.
7. Syndric Steptoe, 1,000 – Un-freaking-believable. For all I know, Steptoe "Bismol" might be the only Syndric in the world.

Unfortunately, there'll be some concern whether Syndric will even make the roster out of training camp. He faces a tough road ahead, but I have faith in him. We must all have faith.

7:40 PM

Corey says: Well, it's been another memorable draft. From Joe Thomas all the way down to Steptoe Bismol, I think it's safe to say that--just as they did last year--the Browns drafted at least six future Hall of Famers this weekend.

Me, I'm all blogged out, and I think Alex feels the same. We may have more to say about the Browns' draft picks in the coming days, but for now, I'm signing off. Training camp is only a few months away!

Last updated: 9:52 PM

Welcome, one and all, to Mistake by the Lake's annual attempt at liveblogging! We'll be updating this post throughout the day with our thoughts on each Browns draftee, not to mention angry rants, wild tangents, and insider info on the NFL prospects with the coolest names! So be sure to check back often!

Why do we do it? It's because we love torturing ourselves! There's nothing like sitting on the couch for an entire weekend, staring blankly at a computer screen as you wait three hours for the next Browns pick to roll around!

Can you feel the excitement? Oh yeah! Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times is on the clock (and off the chains)!

11:05 PM

Corey says: It's a little past 11 on Friday night. That means it's not too late for some meaningless speculation, so just as I did last year, I've decided to poll a bunch of mock drafts to see whom The Internet thinks the Browns will draft. I've tallied the results from the first 75 mock drafts to come up on a Google search for "nfl mock draft". Here's how those 75 predicted the Browns' #3 overall pick:

                                drafted   available
                               by Browns  to Browns
Brady Quinn      QB  Notre Dame    32         59
Adrian Peterson  RB  Oklahoma      28         74
Joe Thomas       OT  Wisconsin      9         65
Calvin Johnson   WR  Ga. Tech       3         38
JaMarcus Russell QB  LSU            3          6

Essentially, The Internet thinks the Browns will draft one of two players: Brady Quinn or Adrian Peterson. I probably don't have to tell you, if it's between those two and only those two, I'll take Quinn. And if the Browns draft Peterson, I'm not going to be a very happy camper...

Also, because meaningless speculation is only half as fun as extremely, extremely meaningless speculation, I decided to track the mock drafts' predictions for the Browns' second-round pick (#36 overall). 25 of the 75 mock drafts I looked at were bold enough to project the second round:

                                 drafted
                                by Browns
Tony Ugoh        OT  Arkansas       4
Justin Blalock   OG  Texas          3
Chris Houston    CB  Arkansas       3
Eric Wright      CB  UNLV           3
Ryan Kalil       C   USC            2
Marcus McCauley  CB  Fresno State   2
Antonio Pittman  RB  Ohio State     2
Anthony Gonzalez WR  Ohio State     1
Quinn Pitcock    DT  Ohio State     1
Sidney Rice      WR  S. Carolina    1
Aaron Sears      OT  Tennessee      1
Anthony Spencer  DE  Purdue         1
Drew Stanton     QB  Michigan St.   1

Not surprisingly, these guesses are all over the map. Lacking any insight whatsoever into the talents of the above players, and based upon the founding principles of Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times draftee worthiness doctrine, I suppose I'll root for the Browns to draft Tony Ugoh.

11:08 AM

Alex says: So, I've compiled what I consider to be the best names available in this year's draft. And while most teams would like to just take a player because his name rocks the house, that's usually not possible. There are positional issues to consider, not to mention those of skill. So I divvied up the list by position. Let's see what we get.

• Quarterback – Joe Ayoob, California
• Running Back – Ab Kuuan, Grambling; Arkee Whitlock, Southern Illinois
• Wide Receiver – Jemalle Cornelius, Florida; Norris Drinkard, Alabama Birmingham; Aaron Fairooz, Central Arkansas; Quentilly Harmon, TCU; Da Mon Lindsey, Glenville State; Fontel Mines, Virginia; L'Tydrick Riley, Texas A&M
• Tight End – J.J. Hair, UCLA; Keith Zinger, LSU
• Fullback – N/A
• Offensive Tackle – Jermon Bushrod, Towson; Nello Faulk, Florida Atlantic; Tony Ugoh, Arkansas
• Offensive Guard – Mansfield Wrotto, Georgia Tech
• Center – N/A
• Defensive Tackle – Jamarrow James, Arkansas State; Elbert Shumake, Pikeville
• Defensive End – CJ Ah You, Oklahoma; Alex Buzbee, Georgetown
• Inside Linebacker – HB Blades, Pittsburgh; Thaddaeus Washington, Colorado
• Outside Linebacker – Kamichael Hall, Georgia Tech; Pinkie Hardiman, Southest Louisiana; Micah Littlejohn, Hampton; Antonio Ransom, Albany
• Cornerback – Tuff Harris, Montana; Terell Maze, San Diego State; Ramzee Robinson, Alabama
• Safety – Sabby Piscitelli, Oregon State; Epsilon Williams, Southwest Texas State
• Kicker – Jad Dean, Clemson
• Punter – N/A
• Long Snappers – N/A
• Return Specialists – Yamon Figurs, Kansas State; Antonio Pennyman II, Utah State; Syndric Steptoe, Arizona

Since the Browns are looking for depth on the offensive line and in the secondary, might we see a Jermon Bushrod or Mansfield Wrotto or even a Ramzee Robinson in the orange and brown next season? Personally, my favorites include Joe Ayoob ("Booya" backwards) and Epsilon Williams. Only like four more hours until the Browns are on the clock!

12:55 PM

Corey says: Phew! The Browns draft Joe Thomas. This is a pick I can get behind. When was the last time the Browns drafted a tackle on the first day of the draft? Other than Jeff Faine, I don't think the New Browns have ever drafted an offensive lineman on the first day, let alone in the first round. Between this draft pick and all the high-profile offensive linemen the Browns have signed as free agents the last two years, I remain encouraged by the front office of Phil Savage. More on Joe Thomas shortly.

(Edit: Okay, Melvin Fowler was a first-day draft pick. You know what I meant.)

1:29 PM

Alex says: You try finding interesting information about Joe Thomas. First of all, there's his name. Joe Thomas. How perfectly common. There are at least 500 Joe Thomases on Facebook, compared to only one Babatunde Oshinowo. And according to every newspaper article I can find, Thomas must be the most perfect human being on the planet: hard-working, dedicated, humble, selfless, sweet-smelling. Hey, nothing wrong with that.

But I did uncover two shocking facts. One, Joe's offensive line coach in college, Bob Palcic, is a former Browns assistant whose daughter works in the team's communications department. Two, I found this eye-opening information on Wikipedia:

Joe Thomas is also known for his pre-game breakfast where he typically consumes 14 hard boiled eggs, 6 strips of bacon, 4 waffles with apple butter, 1 country fried steak filet, 2 bowls of Lucky Charms cereal (with skim milk), 3 glasses of chocolate milk, 3 grapefruits, and usually a large bowl of grits w/ cheese.

Sounds true to me.

4:31 PM

Corey says: Holy Mother of LeBron! The Browns traded their second round pick (#36 overall) and next year's first round pick for the Cowboys' #22 overall pick, and drafted Brady Quinn--the guy everyone thought they were going to draft #3 overall!

Next year's first round pick is an extremely valuable commodity, but I feel like this was a worthwhile trade. The Browns did not have a decent quarterback on the roster, and had little to no chance of acquiring one by trade or free agency. I would much rather the Browns traded one very valuable pick to move up, than a whole bunch of 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round picks. This has been a good day so far!

More on Quinn in a little while...

4:52 PM

Corey says: If you haven't read it already, you might want to check out this artcile that appeared on Football Outsiders a couple weeks ago. Author David Lewin, who has done interesting work with college statistics to project the NFL careers of QBs, offers some compelling reasons to love Brady Quinn, as well as some reasons not to love JaMarcus Russell.

Also, Mike Tanier, another Football Outsiders author (and one of my favorites), had some very good things to say about Quinn in his recent NFL chat over at Baseball Prospectus.

6:46 PM

Alex says: Click Clack™.

6:58 PM

Corey says: Thanks for that, Alex. Anyway, the second round is just barely underway, meaning the Browns will be on the clock in a mere... oh, seven and a half hours!!! Seriously, they mentioned on ESPN that this was the longest first round in NFL draft history, at just over 6 hours. Yikes.

All that in mind, we've decided to do a little trading down (I don't think you'll blame us), swapping the second round of the draft for some Cavs Basketball Presented by Cub Cadet! As I write this, it's halftime, and honestly, I can't remember the last time I saw the Cavs offense working so well for an entire half. We knew the Wizards had one of the worst defenses in the entire NBA, but it's taken until Game 3 to be truly evident.

Also, apparently when FSN goes with the three-man commentating team of McLeod, Scott Williams, and Austin Carr, Carr's role is to giggle nervously at all of his colleagues' "jokes" (which are usually not jokes, per se, but rather extremely un-subtle metaphors to describe what's happening on the court).

Anyway, go Cavs! By the time the Browns are up with their next pick (#67 overall), we should have been able to get through an entire Cavs playoff game, maybe even a whole Indians game, and who knows... a couple episodes of Law & Order I have saved on my DVR.

9:06 PM

Alex says: Just when you thought the Browns were content to sit back, relax, watch a few episodes of Law & Order, and wait for their next pick in the third round, here comes Phil "the" Savage with another trade! This time the Browns practically traded every other pick they had to Dallas (again!) and drafted cornerback Eric Wright.

Wright, you might have heard, was at one time accused of date rape. These are pretty serious charges and I won't make light of them here. Anyway, in the fallout, Wright transferred from USC to UNLV looking for something of a fresh start. Can't blame a guy. Due in large part to these legal troubles, Wright saw his draft stock drop. A late-first-round talent, he fell all the way to the middle of the second.

It's hard to make a blanket judgment on players with "character issues" in the NFL. For every Tank Johnson there is an anti-Tank Johnson who, eventually, everyone forgets had "issues" in the first place. Since the Butch Davis era—what with your William Green stabbings and Gerard Warren arrests—the Browns have had relatively few players getting in trouble. Reuben Droughns was charged with DUI, but he's a big dude and was only something like .001 over the legal BAC limit. I have to give the benefit of the doubt to the Browns front office and coaches in this instance.

If everything works out, and Wright really is the most talented CB in the draft as some have said, this is a great pick. If not, Wright could be a stain on the Browns, but the Browns are a long way from being another Bengals and I think they can afford the risk of a employing someone like Wright.

Unfortunately, the team paid a high price to get him: trading down in the sixth and giving up their third- and fourth-rounders. As it stands now, the Browns don't have another pick for the rest of the day. Tomorrow: a fifth, sixth, and seventh. It seems clear that the front office is going for quality over quantity this time around—perhaps this year's draft class isn't as deep as usual?

Nevertheless, investing in high risk, high reward players like Wright in the later rounds (although the second isn't much of a later round) is a smart strategy. As long as I have faith in the team's ability to keep Wright out of trouble, I'm happy with this pick.

9:52 PM

Corey says: It looks like the Browns are done for today. I'm wondering, though, if they might try to trade Charlie Frye at some point before the draft is over. It's likely they'd be able to get more for him this weekend than they would at any point in the future. I don't think Frye will be thrilled to be just keeping Quinn's seat warm for half a season, if you know what I mean. I'd be all for trading Frye for, say, a fourth round pick.

We'll be back tomorrow to bring you up-to-the-minute coverage of Day 2 (the important part of the draft). CJ Ah You is still on the board! Now it's time to watch the end of the Indians game.

And here we are again. The Cavaliers cap another nominally-successful regular season with an opening date with the Washington Wizards. Using season-long statistics, I've broken down this series by way of the Four Factors and then by each team's starting lineup, since in the playoffs, what with your elongated TV-timeouts and nothing to lose, the starters take a larger share of the minutes.

These are not the same Wizards you may remember from last season. With Gilbert Arenas definitely out and Caron Butler probably gone for the series, they will seriously suffer. Hence, the season-long statistics I use in this analysis are less meaningful for the Wizards than normal. When two players that combined for 27% of a team's minutes over the entire season are absent, that team's dynamic completely changes. So, take the Wizards' numbers with a grain of salt. If anything, they ought to be much worse.

Cavaliers offense vs. Wizards defense

• Shooting – The Cavaliers weren't too efficient from the field this season (22nd in the NBA, .484 eFG). They actually have the worst eFG of any playoff team. But never fear, Cleveland fans. The Wizards were the third-worst team in the league in eFG allowed (.517). The Cavs didn't need efficient shooting to win this season, so Washington's suckage is icing on the cake. They'll shoot a higher percentage from the field than normal, and that's good.
• Turnovers – The Cavs ain't half bad when it comes to holding onto the ball—especially LeBron James, surprisingly. They committed 15.8 turnovers per 100 possessions, good enough for ninth in the league. The Wizards defense has lost some of their luster from last season. Their quick hands have turned decidedly average, as the team ranks only twelfth (16.9% TO-r). Don't expect too many fastbreak points for Washington.
• Offensive rebounding – Welcome to the Cavaliers' wheelhouse. They finished up the year third in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage (29.7)—led by, who else, but Drew Gooden. And as good as the Cavs are at getting second shots, the Wizards are just as happy to allow them. They finished sixth-worst in OReb% allowed (29.0). The Cavs ought to beat the stuffing out of Washington on the boards.
• Getting to the foul line – Not exactly the Cavaliers' strong suit according to the numbers (24th in the NBA, .223 FT/FGA), but when you think about it, they really should be good at this. When He's hot, LeBron James drives the lane at will and, in a previous life, Larry Hughes got to the line a lot. The three-headed rebounding monster of Ilgauskas, Gooden, and Varejão should draw plenty of fouls on put-backs, too. Oh well, c'est la vie. Washington wasn't anything special at keeping their opponents from the foul line (18th, .249). I'd expect business-as-usual here.

The Cavaliers hang their hat on defense, but they aren't one-dimensional. The offense has slipped since last year, finishing eighteenth in offensive efficiency at 105.5 points per 100 possessions. Fortunately though, the Wizards have one of the worst defenses in the league, third-worst in fact (110.9). With individual defensive statistics being what they are, I don't have a good idea who the culprits are or how the aforementioned injuries will affect Washington here—although DeShawn Stevenson looks particularly heinous (114 D-Rating). But the Wizards started off so far into the hole that an improved defense could probably only nudge them to league-average. Which, frankly, isn't enough.

Cavaliers defense vs. Wizards offense

• Shooting – The Cavs have done a pretty good job at keeping their opponents from shooting a low percentage from the field (eigth in the NBA, .480 eFG). This will be enhanced, as the Wizards' offense is in the bottom half in eFG (18th, .491).
• Turnovers – The Cavaliers' defense stands at ninth in the league at generating turnovers, at 17.0 per 100 possessions. That's not too bad, except that seventeen teams are all clumped together between 16.4 and 17.4 turnovers per game. That means that if the Cavs had been a little luckier and the refs called a few extra travels on the opponents or the other team accidentally kicked the ball out of bounds just 50 more times on the season, they'd be sitting at third in the league in forced turnovers, instead of ninth. However, if those calls went the wrong way or Mike Brown let Varejão run the offense, they'd be at 19th in the league. All of this pretty moot, however, since the Wizards are second in the league at avoiding turnovers on offense (14.7).
• Offensive rebounding – Just like on offense, the Cavs are dominating on the boards. Their defense finished the year second at limiting second-chance shots (23.0 OReb%). But while the Wizards don't put up much of an effort on the defensive glass, they at least seem to try on the offensive side (13th, 28.1). Suggesting that perhaps it isn't a lack of talent or a poor game-plan holding them back on defense, it's just a lack of effort. Just like I said before, the Cavaliers ought to beat the stuffing out of the Wizards here.
• Getting to the foul line – The Cavs' defensive strongsuits are making the other team take bad shots and keeping them off the offensive boards, not keeping them off the foul line. They finished the season fourteenth in free throws allowed per field goal attempts allowed, at .243. Particularly foul-happy are Varejão (5.6 personal fouls per 40 minutes), Ira Newble (5.2), and Ilgauskas (4.8). The Wizards get to the free-throw line pretty often too (sixth, .272)—although that was mostly Gilbert Arenas. Watch out for Antonio Daniels, who'll be filling in for Arenas, though. If he had enough minutes to qualify, he would have been third in the NBA in FTM/FGA at .535.

The Cavaliers are a defense-first team, owning the fourth-best defense in the league at 101.3 points per 100 possessions allowed, and the Wizards are an offense-first team with the fourth-best offense at 109.8 points per 100 possessions. And old adage comes to mind: a good defense beats a good offense. But I'm not sure whether history actually proves that true. For now though, let's call it a tie. With Washington's defense being what it is not to mention losing their first- and third-best players, the Cavaliers should win this series handily.

Starting lineups

• Point guard – Larry Hughes is an unconventional choice for point guard, but I don't need to flesh out the arguments about him here. I'm sure we've heard them all before. O.K., I just want to throw this one tidbit in: the 2006-2007 season was the worst of Hughes's career. Anyway, Gilbert Arenas was one of the best starting point guards in the NBA, but he's injured now, so who cares? In his place will be Antonio Daniels, who is pretty freakin' good for a backup. He's an efficient scorer and great passer and not a good matchup for Hughes.
• Shooting guard – DeShawn Stevenson blossomed this year, turning from something of a low-efficiency chucker to a valuable offensive player. He's still garbage on defense, though. Sasha Pavlovic had a blossoming of his own. He's a good shooter and can drive to the basket, but he really needs to cut down on turnovers. I don't know if Sasha's defensive numbers are merely a product of Mike Brown's system or not, but I'll still give the Cavs the nod here since Pavlovic isn't nearly as one-dimensional as Stevenson.
• Small forward – Jarvis Hayes could be the second coming and it wouldn't matter because LeBron James is the first coming.
• Power forward – Antawn Jamison is the best player the Wizards have left. He's a good outside shooter and rebounder, an uncommon combination. He's not much of a defender, though. As for the Cavaliers, I'm going to bite the bullet and admit that Drew Gooden and Anderson Varejão are probably going to share minutes in the playoffs. Both are great rebounders, although Gooden is better. Anderson plays hard on defense while Drew plays hard on offense. Platooned correctly, this two-headed monster will overwhelm Jamison. Platooned incorrectly, we'll see an exhausted Anderson Varejão out there for the entire fourth quarter.
• Center – Since these teams met last playoffs, Washington has swapped out Brendan Haywood for Etan Thomas as starting center, but it really doesn't matter. Both are lumbering, mediocre big men who get rebounds and shoot a high percentage. Zydrunas Ilgauskas is better than them. If the Cavaliers deem it important enough to feed him the ball, they'll have a real advantage. As we know, however, this isn't necessary for victory (see: last year's series).

My rose-colored analysis of the starting lineups posits Cleveland to be superior at almost every position. Even if that's not 100% true, the Cavaliers still have the better starters thanks to LeBron over Hayes and Ilgauskas over Thomas.

It's pretty easy to see that the Cavaliers are the better team. Without Arenas or Butler, the Wizards are left almost toothless and without depth. The Cavs' control of the boards might be enough to win the series by itself before even mentioning Washington's awful defense. Almost every "expert" on the web is predicting a Cavaliers victory in four or five games. That sounds about right to me. Come on, Cavs!

Before we dive into the excitement of the NBA playoffs, I'd like to take a look back at the regular season (and the mountain of data it produced) to see if we can draw some conclusions about the '06-'07 Cavaliers.

A lot of people would argue that the Cavs didn't live up to expectations in the regular season, and that therefore '06-'07 has been a disappointment so far. I'll render my opinion on that matter at the end of this post. Certainly, it's hard to argue with the #2 seed and what looks like a cream puff playoff schedule (that is, compared to what might have been)--regardless of whether the Cavs earned it or lucked into it. Again, I'll address that question at the end.

Here's the obligatory "season game-o-graph" which shows how the Cavs' point differential changed over the course of the year (click to enlarge):



As you can see, the Cavs were much more consistent than their super-streaky '05-'06 forebears. And if this graph tells us anything else, it's that the Cavs "turned it on" slightly in the second half of the season.

This next graph will give us an idea of how the team's offense and defense, respectively, fared over the course of the regular season. The data here are a series of overlapping 9-game averages, taken of the Cavs' offensive and defensive efficiency (click to enlarge):



In case you're confused, the red line, representing the Cavs offense, goes higher when the offense was scoring more efficiently. The blue line, representing the defense, goes lower when the Cavs were stuffing their opponents more effectively. Thus, we can see that during the second-half "turning it up" phase, the offense was erratic, while the defense buckled down and really carried the team. I think that pretty well agrees with most accounts of how the season progressed.

For what it's worth, the Cavs finished the year with the NBA's 18th best offense, scoring 105.5 points per 100 possessions (compared to the league average of 106.5). Their defense, on the other hand, was 4th best in the league, allowing only 101.3 points per 100 possessions. Only the Bulls, Spurs, and Rockets had better defenses.

In order to dig deeper into a few areas, I thought it might be interesting to revisit some of the many discussions we held on our blog throughout the year. I'll admit my brother and I have blogged less frequently over the last few months than in years gone by, but we still managed to touch on plenty of interesting topics, like the Cavs' ridiculously wide home/road split, or their inability to win the second game of a back-to-back. I, for one, would like to know how these issues played out over the rest of the season. So indulge me as I stroll through the archives a little...

Home Court Advantage

Early in the season, all the talk was about the fact that the Cavs couldn't seem to lose at home, and couldn't seem to win on the road. At the time, they were on a historic pace, in terms of home/road winning percentage differential. In "Must Be That Cleveland Air", I dissected the Cavaliers' unusually large home court advantage, discovering that it actually dates back to the late 80's. I also ruminated on the concept of the home court advantage in general. This topic is more relevant than ever in the playoffs, so if you're skeptical about just how huge the ascent to the #2 seed really was, I recommend you re-read my earlier post.

Anyway, at the time of the article, the Cavs were 12-3 at home and 3-8 on the road, putting their winning percentage differential at .527, which would have been a franchise record. The rest of the way, however, the team went 18-8 at home and 17-13 on the road (a differential of just .126); thus the final season-long home/road differential was a mere .244. That still puts them well above league average, but well in the middle of what the Cavs franchise usually achieves.

Some people might look at this development as a bad thing. "The Cavs lost their home court advantage!" But in reality, what the Cavs lost was their road court disadvantage. In essence, they made up the gap by bringing their road winning percentage to a respectable level. As I've said before, a home court advantage is neither good nor bad--it's completely neutral--so long as you play an equal number of games at home and away (which is true of the regular season, though not the playoffs).

Playing on Consecutive Nights

Another early-season talking point to make the rounds was the Cavs' abominable record in games played on no days' rest (that is, the second game of a back-to-back). The team started 1-7 in games of this type, and were 2-7 when I wrote "Days of Rest". In that post, I pointed out that the Cavs had played almost all of those games on the road, and against some disproportionately tough competition. I predicted that we'd see the Cavs' winning percentage in back-to-back situations rise by season's end.

Sure enough, the Cavs went 8-5 the rest of the way, to finish the year 10-12 in games played on zero days' rest. Not only is that decent, it's much better than league average. At this point, I think we can all agree that the "back-to-backs" thing is a non-issue. Anyway, they don't play back-to-backs in the postseason, so it truly doesn't matter anymore.

Frontcourt Minutes

In "Today the Minutes Seem Like Hours", Alex commented on the Cavs' depth in the frontcourt, with Ilgauskas, Gooden, Varejão and Marshall. He found that the distribution of minutes among these four guys was, surprisingly, in line with what they had done on the court so far. Here's how the four ended the season, minutes-wise and performance-wise:

            MP    PER  ORtg  DRtg
Gooden     2238  16.5   107   100
Ilgauskas  2130  18.0   107    99
Varejão    1932  14.4   113    98
Marshall   1360  15.3   106    99

Both John Hollinger's and Dean Oliver's player ratings like Gooden and Ilgauskas. It's appropriate, I think you'll agree, that they got the largest shares of the minutes. My one complaint about Drew Gooden's minutes was that, for some unexplained reason, he never used to play in the fourth quarter, but (and unfortunately I don't have any data to support this) I believe we saw him play more in the fourth quarter of games late in the season than we had in seasons past.

PER and O/D Rating can't seem to reach a consensus about Anderson Varejão. He has the worst PER of the "bigs" but the best Player Winning Percentage (a stat that is derived from his O- and D-Ratings). To be fair, Anderson was something of a statistical enigma last year, too. I'll leave it to you to try and figure out why that is.

The biggest surprise might be the revelation that Donyell Marshall's '06-'07 season, on paper anyway, was a successful one. I think the consensus around these parts is that Donyell had a down year. This perception, however, may be a result of the fact that he attempted his fewest number of field goals in 10 years. In reality, his FG%, eFG%, and three-point shooting percentage all improved from last year, while his rebounding and other stats stayed about the same. The biggest question may revolve around his defense. He doesn't appear to be that intense a defender, but then, in Mike Brown's system (a system we know works extremely well), it's hard to observe individual defensive performances. For what it's worth, Donyell's D-Rating of 99 is quite stellar, even though it's just an approximation.

Free Throw Woes

The Cavs' biggest weakness in 2006-2007 was their free throw shooting. In February, when Alex wrote "Free Throwing Caution to the Wind", they had the worst free throw percentage in the NBA. In my follow-up post "Free Throwing Caution to the Wind II: Free Throw Shooting Themselves in the Foot", I took a closer look at the free throw shooting performances of the five Cavs who attempt the most free throws. I concluded that we really only needed to worry about LeBron and Larry Hughes, as the rest of the Cavaliers either didn't attempt enough free throws to have much of an impact, or were doing fine from the line.

At the time of the article, LeBron was shooting about .680 from the line. He finished the season with a .698 free throw percentage. Obviously this means He improved in this area during the last two and half months; unfortunately, I can't say exactly what He shot over that period alone. Some very quick and rough estimation tells me He had to shoot about .740--close to His career average--from the line over the final two and a half months to raise His percentage from .680 to .698. I think LeBron's in the clear, moving forward.

Larry Hughes was shooting about .675 from the line at the time of my article. He finished the season with a percentage of .676. You don't need me to do any quick-'n'-dirty math to help you with this one. Larry Hughes just had a horrible offensive season, no matter how you slice it. Which brings me to...

Larry Hughes Shot Selection

One of the many fascinating topics raised by our loyal readers in "Emptyin' the Mailbox: Cavaliers Edition" was Larry Hughes' maddening preference for extra-long 2-point shots, pulling up for long jumpers while on fast breaks, and so on. I did some research and found that Larry does in fact shoot too many 2-point jumpers--and that, while he had also started shooting more 3-pointers, this was coming at the expense of his driving to the hoop, not of his attempting long 2's. Here are Larry's final '06-'07 shot selection data, according to my spreadsheet (which, again, is very approximate due to the data being culled from multiple sources):

                    pct.  eFG%
3-point jumpers     23%   .500
2-point jumpers     54%   .377
close (eg. layups)  22%   .502
dunks                1%  1.000
tip-ins              1%   .600

This shows that, if anything, Hughes attempted more of those oh-so-stupid 2-point jumpers during the season's final phase. All this is to say that Hughes sucks on offense. Once in his career did he have an O-Rating higher than league average; naturally, that was the year right before the Cavs signed him. This season, Hughes had the worst O-Rating (98) of any Cavalier who actually got minutes. And his PER of 12.1 was lower than everyone but Eric Snow. Snow, at least, had the team's lowest usage rating, so he couldn't have much of an impact; Hughes had the second highest usage rating on the team (20.7).

I happen to think Hughes is still a good defensive player (his D-rating of 103 was the lowest among the guards), but the Cavs' success in the playoffs may hinge on Larry's ability to control his idiotic decision making on offense, or, failing that, his teammates' ability to keep the ball out of his hands.

LeBron's Improvement

In March, Alex and I wrote a pair of articles, "A New LeBron James" and "LeBron Shot Selection", addressing the notion that LeBron flipped some kind of switch on or around February 15 and started playing much better. I found that while His shot selection stayed roughly the same, His eFG% did indeed improve over the second half, especially in the paint, plus we've already seen that He improved His free throw shooting. Now, I don't know whether LeBron "flipped a switch" or not, but I would like to put His season in some kind of context.

On offense, The Chosen One may have fallen off His MVP-deserving pace of '05-'06, but His PER of 24.5 and O-Rating of 112 still place Him among the elite of the NBA. What has really gone unnoticed (not just by the media and most fans, but by Alex and me as well) is the fact that LeBron really improved His defense in '06-'07. Of course, the Cavs as a team really stepped up their defense, but LeBron was a big part of that. His D-Rating of 100 was the lowest of His career and the fourth lowest on the team (best among the non-big men). It was also the fourth lowest among all 2007 All-Stars (only Tim Duncan, Yao Ming, and Dwight Howard had better D-Ratings).

Now, before I call it a post, there are two questions I want to try to answer. First:

Who's Better: the Cavs or the Bulls?

The Cavs finished the season with one more win than the Bulls, but I think the general feeling, especially right before they played the final game of the season, was that the Bulls were the better team.

In head-to-head matchups, each team won two games, but the Cavs actually scored more points, 399 to 389. They also held a significant margin in efficiency in those games, 106.0 to 103.3. Of course, four games is too small a sample size to tell us much of anything.

The Bulls have a better defense than the Cavs, allowing only 99.4 points per 100 possessions, to the Cavs' 101.3. In fact, the Bulls have the best defense in the NBA. The Cavs, meanwhile, hold a slight edge in offensive efficiency, 105.5 to 105.2--hardly enough to tip the scales in their favor. In terms of Pythagorean winning percentage, the Bulls once again hold a lead, .675 to .638. For now, I'll say that while the teams are close, the Bulls are probably better. Heh, sucks to be them right now!

Who's Better: This Season's Cavs or Last Season's?

The '05-'06 Cavs certainly blazed a new trail for the Cavs of this era, plus they overachieved significantly in the playoffs. For that, '05-'06 is remembered as a successful season in Cleveland. Also because of that, the expectations for the '06-'07 Cavs were quite high.

This year's Cavs won the same number of games as last year's, and once again finished with the second best record in the East (earning a higher seed only because of a rule change). This can be seen as a failure to improve; however, I see several fundamental differences between this year's Cavs and last year's.

The '05-'06 Cavs were not as good a team as their 50-32 record suggested. They won a lot of games by small margins, many of them, if you recall, against inferior opponents like Charlotte and Toronto, whom the Cavs should have blown out. Even in the playoffs, the Cavs' wins were by one or two points, while their losses were huge. Their regular season Pythagorean winning percentage of .581 suggests the '05-'06 Cavs "deserved" a record of about 48-34.

This year, the Cavs had a worse offense, but a vastly improved defense. If anything, they underachieved in the regular season, playing to a Pythagorean winning percentage of .638, which would be good for a record of 52-30. The Cavs did improve from last year to this year, and it showed up in the way they beat their opponents more handily, instead of scraping by on last second shots from Damon Jones or Flip Murray. Also, they got blown out a lot less. This is significant, meaningful progress, even if it wasn't reflected in the win column. For that reason, I look on this season as a successful one. I know that in the end, the campaign will be judged by how the Cavs fare in the playoffs and that alone. But for now, I think a little more optimism is warranted.

That's all I got for now. Alex will be hitting you with a Cavs-Wizards preview of some kind in the next day or two. Enjoy the postseason, everybody!

I have chased the Indians to many a foreign ballpark, but my experience today was the greatest Indians adventure I've ever been on, and not one I'll soon forget.

It actually began Wednesday, when I was supposed to board a plane for Chicago's O'Hare airport, then meet up with my friend Ben and longtime loyal reader Matthew. We were going to drive up to Milwaukee and catch the second game of the Indians' homestand-away-from-home. As it turned out, though, all flights to Chicago were either canceled or severely delayed due to weather conditions. Our plan was not looking good.

Determined to get to one of the games no matter the cost, I had the airline put me on a different return flight and started planning to catch the third (ie: this afternoon's) game in the series. Unfortunately, this meant that Matthew, whom I was really looking forward to meeting, wouldn't be able to come. I certainly wasn't happy about that, but as I said, at least I was going to get something out of the trip.

At any rate, Ben and I arrived at Miller Park this morning to find a ridiculously long line at the ticket window. I should have figured the crowd would be mostly walk-up. For the third day in a row, the Indians had drawn huge crowds. By the time we got inside the building, it was the bottom of the second.

I started snapping pictures immediately:



When the Indians were batting, Slider took over Bernie Brewer's post at the top of the home run slide. Naturally I was delighted to see The Fuchsia One, and while it was kind of neat to see him "playing" Bernie Brewer, I wish he had been cavorting around the park as is his custom, if only because Bernie's Dugout is so high up and so far removed from any fans whatsoever (especially seeing as how they kept the upper deck closed for these games) that it's nearly impossible for him to entertain anyone at all except for during the few seconds after an Indians player hits a home run.



The Miller Park scoreboard operators really got into it, trying to make us Clevelanders feel right at home. In the picture above, the video screen at the top is playing a Jacobs Field scoreboard video. The yellow blob is actually an extreme close-up of Slider's nose. You'll see it when you make it to the Jake this season.

Of course, it simply would not and could not be an Indians home game without a certain special something:





I snuck the bottle in (nobody even batted an eye) and am proud to report that it tastes equally as delicious on other stadiums' sausages as it does on Jacobs Field's. Milwaukee, of course, is famous for its sausages and the racing of said sausages. On previous trips to Miller Park I have actually managed to "eat for the cycle"; that is, the hot dog, the bratwurst, the Polish, and the Italian. Today, however, I guess they were unprepared for the massive crowd, because the concession stand we went to ran out of Polish and Italian sausage. Here I am posing with a delicious Wisconsin brat and my precious Stadium 'Stard:



Here are a few more of the fun things the scoreboard operators put up to create a Cleveland atmosphere:





You can see another Jacobs Field video playing on the screen above. It was some kind of feature about Eric Wedge's hometown in Indiana.

Of course, Ben and I took a moment to toast our fallen comrade, Matthew:



This one was for you, Matthew! I hope there will be a next time!

Anyway, as the game went on, we thoroughly enjoyed both the sausage race (I wonder if these three races are going to count in the official season standings--can anyone confirm this?) and the Brewers-style seventh inning stretch, complete with the "Beer Barrel Polka". I'm sad to report that during "Take Me Out to the Ballgame", the scoreboard displayed the lyrics "root, root, root for the home team" instead of "root, root, root for the Indians", but hey, what are ya gonna do?

At the conclusion of the seventh inning, I decided I wanted to try to locate John Adams (who had been faithfully banging away at his drum all series long) to get my picture taken with him. We headed down to the lower deck and found the legend himself sitting in an empty section beyond the right field wall:



The Miller Park people had placed him in this empty section, I suppose, so that his drumming wouldn't disturb anyone. Clearly, they didn't quite get it, but bless them for welcoming him anyway! The Milwaukee fans didn't quite get that you're supposed to clap along with the drum, either; it was a little weird to hear the drum without the clapping. It was even weirder to hear the drumbeats reverberating around inside the domed stadium. It hardly sounded like the same drum.

At any rate, the concept of a guy with a giant drum sitting in the middle of an empty section must have been intriguing to the curious Milwaukee public, because while I was standing at the back of the section, a parade of fans tried (mostly unsuccessfully) to get near Mr. Adams in order to either talk to him or get their picture taken with him. Adams, of course, welcomed their inquiries, but a Miller Park usher was trying very hard to keep people out of the closed section; thus, no one was having much luck.

It was at this moment that Travis Hafner opted to hit his monster awesome lead-taking three-run home run (see, I told you he could hit a home run to Wisconsin!). The fans in our vicinity cheered, but I went berserk. So berserk, in fact, that I attracted the attention of John Adams, who pointed at me celebratingly. I decided this was my chance, so I made a mad dash for the guy, showing him my bottle of Stadium Mustard and babbling excitedly. The usher must have figured I wasn't worth shooing away, either because I was clearly an insane, rabid Indians fan or because it appeared as though I had been brought into the section by special invitation of the guest of honor.

As a result, I got to spend the entire rest of the game (which, to be fair, was about 15 minutes) sitting next to John Adams, chatting with him. I don't have to tell you it was a dream come true. John, his wife, Ben and I were literally the only people in the section.





John drummed away while I picked his brain about a few things. For the record, this wasn't the first time the drum has been on the road; it was the second. Apparently, John once took the drum with him to an away series in Oakland. This was, however, the first time the Indians have ever payed John's way to anything. That is certainly a monumental first. John also reported that he would much rather have been placed in a section full of people, but that he hadn't been given much choice.



The picture above is my absolute favorite. It gives an idea of just how surreal the whole experience was (click to enlarge). I found out later (on a tip from loyal reader Anonymous) that I had been shown on SportsTime Ohio's TV broadcast sitting next to John during the top of the ninth. That certainly was a thrill, too (thanks, Anonymous!). In fact, I would like to make a humble request of our wonderful readers: that if anyone can grab a screen cap of me sitting next to John Adams on STO, I'd really, really, really appreciate it!

All in all, it was an amazing day. This was an experience that will be with me for the rest of my life, and in a weird way, I'm glad that Northeast Ohio was thrust into some kind of Bizarro Ice World for a few days, just so I could have these memories.

This strange new Bizarro World we've been thrust into is proving to be most wacky indeed. The Indians home opener will now take place in Milwaukee (NATURALLY!). I just booked my plane ticket for Wednesday's game (seriously).

One question everyone seems to be asking is, will the Indians be compensated for the loss of revenue they'll incur from this? I certainly hope so, but I can't fathom where that money is going to come from. Ticket sales at Miller Park? I doubt many people will show up (they can't all be as insane as me). Luckily, this series, if it were played in Cleveland, was likely going to be the Indians' poorest-attended series anyway. As we've seen, April games at Jacobs Field are usually sparsely populated, especially weekday games, especially games earlier in the month of April (not counting Opening Day itself).

When we consider that the canceled Indians-Mariners games may in fact draw more fans when they eventually do get played than they would have drawn these last few days, coupled with the fact that the Indians got some freebie revenue from the concessions, parking, etc. they brought in during Friday's Bizarro Four Innings, maybe the net amount of revenue they'll lose from this whole weather debacle won't be that significant. Then again, maybe it's devastatingly significant; what do I know?

Either way, I'll be filing a comprehensive Bizarro Report with lots of Bizarro Pictures of my Milwaukee adventure as soon as I get back to Cleveland. I can't wait!!!

I'd like to take issue with something Joe Sheehan wrote on Baseball Prospectus Unfiltered (the BP blog) about yesterday's Bizarro Home Opener:

[The Indians] have been the worst offender in the modern trend towards playing baseball games in weather not fit for man nor beast. Since Jacobs Field opened in 1994, the Indians have routinely forced their fans to sit through rain delays of two hours or more, and nasty, wet weather once the game gets underway, rather than calling the game and potentially sacrificing the ticket revenue. There are other reasons why games like today’s get played—the difficulty of rescheduling them in an unbalanced-schedule/interleague-play environment was certainly a factor in today’s silliness, as the Mariners don’t return to Cleveland in 2007—but the desire to avoid rain checks or refunds is chief among them. This is an aggressively anti-fan approach, one that forces the paying customer to choose between sitting in the rain for hours or eating his investment in the ticket. Today’s game never should have started; in fact, it should have been called in the morning, before the fans started for the park. That the Indians chose to even try to get it in is an affront to everyone who held a ticket.

To be fair, Joe does go on to admit that the Indians got completely hosed out of a victory, but that really wasn't the point of his post. I realize I am probably more "die hard" than your average Indians fan, but when I find myself the ticket holder in a rain-delay situation, as is bound to happen from time to time, I appreciate the team's attempts to play the game that day despite the obstacles. Not because I don't want to have to come out to the Jake some other time; not because I enjoy sitting in the rain... but because I came to the ballpark to see some baseball, and I want to see some baseball. The team may have their own financial incentives for waiting out bad weather--that's absolutely fine with me.

Meanwhile: what happens if the snow prevents the Indians and Mariners from playing at least two games before Tuesday? Do the Mariners have to make two additional (unscheduled) trips to Cleveland later in the season? And who on the Mariners roster will pay for what happened to Victor? Tit for tat!

We have passed into some kind of Bizarro World where it snows on Opening Day. Here's an interesting tidbit for you: when Bizarro Hafner swings his Bizarro Bat in the middle of a snowstorm, the individual pieces of snow his bat touches go sailing over the outfield fence.

As I write this, we are waiting to resume play once more so that Paul Byrd can record one more lousy Bizarro Out to make this game official. It's a sad reality that baseball managers have very little influence to exert on the games they manage--despite popular opinion--but Mike Hargrove has definitely found a way to exert his influence on this game in a very creative and potentially beneficial (to his team; not ours) way. I think its reasonable to think that if the umpires had allowed Jose Lopez to just ground out already before stopping play, that the game would have ended rather than being delayed yet again. As it stands now, they're not going to resume play until the snow clears, meaning the Mariners will have more innings in which to try and mount their futile comeback.

Also: Eric Wedge should grow a mustache.

He strikes out too much.