There's been plenty of buzz lately that the Browns are interested in Brady Quinn, who grew up rooting for the Browns in Dublin, Ohio. Now, I'm no scout, and I don't purport to ever having watched a Notre Dame football game, so I won't disclose the results of my intricate assessment of Mr. Quinn right now.

But did you know that, according to an anonymous tip, Brady Quinn's sister is married to A.J. Hawk?! That's just crazy.

Alex and I get a ton of mail from our readers. It's overwhelming, really. We do our best to respond to each and every letter we receive, but between Alex's 13 full-time jobs, my frequent business trips to Eastern Europe, and taking care of our secret black sheep younger brother, Gomer, it's hard to find time.

During football season, we took the Browns' bye week as an opportunity to catch up on some of our Browns-related e-mail. Now we find our inbox stuffed to the gills with Cavs questions. So, if it's okay with you, we'd like to use the lull that is the NBA All-Star Break as a chance to empty the ol' mailbag of some Cavs-related queries.

Shall we?

Dear Mistakes by the Lake Times,

What would Drew Gooden's stats look like if all his after-the-whistle highlights actually counted?

Jesse U.
Frelinghuysen, NJ

Alex says: In the greatest statistical travesty since the introduction of the Save Rule, NBA Commissioner David Stern disallowed the counting of so-called "after-the-whistle" accomplishments in official statistics. This decision—often referred to as the "Drew Gooden Rule"—has wrought untold damage on Drew's career. Currently, Gooden is averaging 11.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.84 steals, and 0.39 blocks per game. If we were to retroactively void the Drew Gooden Rule, Gooden would see almost all of his countable stats rise, especially blocks. Our computer estimates his season stat totals along the lines of 18 points, 11 rebounds, still 0.8 assists for some strange reason, 3 steals, and 14 blocks per game (I'm counting after-the-whistle goaltending as a block... I figure, what the hey).

These numbers are clearly impressive, but we're overlooking an important secondary effect of this hypothetical rule change. Our computer projections are with Drew's minutes held constant at 28 per game. However, we all know that with increased production, he'd be certain to see more floor time. And with more floor time, we could expect Gooden to average nearly 25 points, 15 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 4 steals, and 23 blocks per game—All-Star levels, no doubt.

But there are tertiary effects to note, too. Suddenly being considered one of the premier power forwards of today, Drew would be able to count on increased visibility and fame, leading to more lucrative endorsement deals, a record contract, and perhaps a late-night talk show. All of these possibilities are dizzying, of course, but I think we should keep our heads out of the clouds. The injustice being done to Drew Gooden is unquestionably... unjust, but we should celebrate the fact that even in his hampered state, Drew remains one of the best (if not most underrated) power forwards in the NBA.

Dear Mistake on the Lake Sporting Blog,

Who's your favorite member of the Scream Team?

Julie Davner
Ft. Worth, TX

Corey says: Well I am partial to that one guy who always wears that red hoodie, but I'd have to say my favorite is that one girl with all that "in yo' face" attitude! You know the one; she always wears that red hoodie. Excellent question!

Dear Brothers Rubin,

Everybody knows about LeBron winning the MVP at last year's game, but what are the worst ever All-Star performances by a Cav?

Jim in Parma
Parma, OH

Alex says: A most excellent question, Jim in Parma. Fourteen Cavaliers have appeared in the big game over the years, including luminaries like Mark Price, Austin Carr, Butch Beard, and John Johnson. My personal favorite line would be Carr's, from 1974: 5 minutes, 0 points, 0-4 FG, 1 rebound, 0 assists. Vintage Austin Carr.

Some other noteworthy games would be Zydrunas Ilgauskas's 2003: 4 minutes, 0 points, 0-1 FG, 0 rebounds, 0 assists, 1 turnover (I remember the commentators criticizing the coach for keeping Z on the bench, though); or Brad Daugherty's 1989: 15 minutes, 0 points, 0-3 FG, 3 rebounds, 0 assists.

P.S. Why was John Johnson a two-time All-Star? Did a player from every team have to make it to the game back then, à la MLB?

Dear Mistakesports at the Lakes Time,

Do you have any data pertaining to shot selection? I ask because of Larry Hughes--he drives me crazy the way he always passes up three point shots in favor of long twos, or pulls up for a jumper while on a fast break.

C. Farbman
Paramaribo, Suriname

Corey says: You know, Carl, you've spelled out some of my own biggest frustrations with Hughes' offensive game quite succinctly. As a matter of fact, I do have some shot selection data, which I've culled from a couple of different sources (meaning there's a margin of error here, but it's close enough for jazz). Here's a breakdown of Larry's shots, both last season and this season, along with his effective field goal percentage when shooting each type of shot (I use eFG% because it values each type of shot based on the number of points it's worth). The data was current as of 2/15/07:

                     '05-'06        '06-'07
                    pct.  eFG%     pct.  eFG%
3-point jumpers     16%   .553     24%   .570
2-point jumpers     52%   .351     52%   .368
close (eg. layups)  27%   .488     22%   .491
dunks                4%   .842      1%  1.000
tip-ins              1%   .333      1%   .667

This table tells us a couple of things. First, the eFG% numbers tell us that a typical Larry Hughes three-point attempt is far more valuable to the Cavaliers than a typical Larry Hughes two-point jumper attempt, or even a typical Larry Hughes layup attempt. Secondly, much to my own surprise, Hughes is shooting much better this season than he did last season. Even more surprising to me is the fact that 24% of his shot attempts this season are threes--I would have guessed it was much lower.

It seems, however, that Larry is not attempting more threes at the expense of his maddening "long two" habit but at the expense of his driving to the basket. In recent years, when Hughes has been most effective, it has been driving to the basket, as he has quite a knack for drawing the foul when he does so. This year, however, he seems to have resigned himself to being more of an outside shooter, which would be fine if only he understood the extreme discrepancy in value between a three-point shot and a shot attempted from just inside the three-point line. The two shots have more or less the same chance of going in, but one has 1.5 times the value.

Alex and Corey,

How 'bout that Sasha Pavlovic?

Anonymous
Location withheld

Alex says: You said it, Anonymous! Mr. Pavlovic has been showered with praise the past couple of weeks, and rightfully so. His play looks inspired, and he's been instrumental in the Cavs wins. I looked at his game log to find out what exactly he's been doing right. Did he cut down on turnovers? Hit more three pointers? Or, maybe he's just getting more minutes?

It's a bit murky, but I'll say that Sasha's hot streak began in earnest eleven games ago versus Philadelphia. Conveniently, this season, Sasha has played 40 games. I sliced up his season into four chunks: Chunk #1, Chunk #2, Chunk #3, and New Hotness. Here are what Pavlovic accomplished offensively in each 10-game stretch:

       MPG  P/40  R/40  A/40 TO/40  TS%
  #1  18.8  15.3   5.3   2.7   3.6  .51 
  #2  10.6   9.4   3.8   2.3   3.4  .36
  #3  13.1  14.1   5.5   1.8   2.5  .54
N.H.  25.1  20.1   3.7   3.5   3.0  .60

During "New Hotness", Sasha's points, assists, and true shooting percentage are up, while turnovers are down. (The spike in TS% stems primarily from hitting 50% on three pointers, compared to 31% for the rest of the season.) His production and efficiency have risen.

We're left to wonder whether this is the real Sasha Pavlovic. It's just 11 games, after all. What if I told you that over the 11 games between May 27 and June 7 last season, Aaron Boone hit .359/.375/.564? Well, he did. That ought to temper some of the enthusiasm for Sasha's breakout. On the bright side, despite playing in his fourth season in the NBA, he's only 23 years old—younger than plenty of rookies like Shelden Williams and Randy Foye. Improvement by leaps and bounds isn't hard to imagine for such a young player. I have my fingers crossed, but it's likely that Sasha will cool off soon.

Hey guys,

I really need your help. In the last few weeks I've caught myself looking at LeBron's lemonade. What should I do???

Gary
South Euclid, OH

Corey says: It's okay, Gary, just relax. I've seen this before. Take a deep breath. The first thing you need to do is stop looking at LeBron's lemonade. I would suggest you find a quiet place and meditate for a few weeks. If The Chosen One finds it in His heart to forgive you, you'll know. Also, it couldn't hurt to eat a few bowls of Fruity Pebbles.

Dear Mistake Times Sports Times,

I really didn't understand that last e-mail about looking at LeBron's lemonade. Could you explain it?

Shmuel P.
Los Lunas, NM

Corey says: Sorry about that, Shmuel. You see, it has long been known that looking at LeBron's lemonade is a grave insult. All the biggest haters have been known to do it. I suspect, however, that Gary's problem runs deeper than simply gazing upon our Lord and Savior's citrusy beverage--though doing so is surely inexcusable in and of itself. If you ask me, "looking at His lemonade" is a metaphor for not allowing LeBron into your heart. Gary is certainly a longtime Cleveland sports fan and is therefore very jaded. It's no wonder he has trouble putting his faith in LeBron. Of course, putting our collective faith in LeBron is precisely what will set us free. And that, Shmuel, is why you must never look at The Chosen One's lemonade.

Not to pick on Paul Hoynes, but he made quite an interesting prediction for the 2007 Indians:

What will probably happen: The improved Indians will win between 85 and 90 games to repeat their fourth-place finish from last season.

For the Indians to win more than 85 games and finish fourth, (obviously) three other AL Central teams must also win 85 or more games. Sounds just like the luck of a Cleveland sports fan, doesn't it? Last year, the Cardinals won the NL Central and even the World Series despite only 83 wins. Yet the Indians—with all those superfluous wins—won't even sniff the playoffs. But four out of five teams in the same division winning 85 games or greater, that seems a little unlikely, right?

Since 1995 (when the Wild Card debuted), there have been 72 divisional races. And how many times has a division had four or more 85 game winners? Zero. It has never happened.

The distribution of number of teams with 85 wins or greater kind of looks normal, so I'll run with that. If it is in fact normal, then the probability of any one division having four teams with at least 85 wins is 0.3%. That means we ought to see one of these super-dominant divisions every 50 years or so.

Will the 2007 AL Central be one of the strongest divisions of all-time? I doubt it. There are convincing arguments that the White Sox, Twins, and Tigers have all significantly worsened in the off-season. Or, at the very least, a team or two will return to earth after playing over their heads last year. Replacing Francisco Liriano with Sidney Ponson ought to cost the Twins at least twelve wins, but who's counting?

Certainly, it's possible for four teams in a division to hit 85 wins, even with unequal scheduling. If the Indians, Twins, Tigers, and White Sox each split the 54 games they play against the other big three, they still only have to go 58-50 against everyone else to reach that magical mark. (And if you sweep the Royals, you only have to go 40-50 against all other comers.) Just because something hasn't happened before doesn't make it impossible (cf. anything surprising that's ever happened). But when the odds of an event are so small—like less than one percent–small—maybe you should take a little more time to think over such an improbably prediction.

Personally, I think Paul Hoynes is stuck between a rock and a hard place. He wants to stand firm on the insane prediction he made weeks ago that the Tribe will finish fourth in the Central, but also, he is beginning to acknowledge that the Indians have improved since last year, and were probably better than their record indicated in the first place. Hoynes is probably wrong, though crazier things have happened.

In case you missed it, yesterday my brother wrote about the Cavs' poor free throw shooting. Indeed, it has been shockingly bad this season. So far, they're shooting .684 from the line, compared to last season's .729.

Alex's post inspired me to look a little closer at this issue. Which Cavs, exactly, are responsible for the decline?

First, here's a list of Cavaliers by 2007 free throw percentage, from best to worst:

Pavlovic    .783
Ilgauskas   .774
Gibson      .742
Gooden      .739
Wesley      .708
James       .684
Jones, Da.  .682
Hughes      .676
Marshall    .656
Varejão     .620
Brown       .571
Snow        .548
Jones, Dw.  .500
Pollard     .500

Of course, Sasha Pavlovic's exemplary free throw shooting this season has mattered little to the Cavaliers, as Sasha has made only 46 attempts--a little less than 3.6% of the total free throws attempted by the Cavs this season. Here's a chart that breaks down the Cavs' distribution of free throw attempts (ie: what percentage of the team's total attempts were hoisted by each player). Click to enlarge:



So the players whose free throw shooting is most important to the Cavaliers, in order, are LeBron, Varejão, Hughes, Gooden, and Z. No big surprises there. Let's see how each of them is doing from the foul line so far this season, compared to their career norms.

First, LeBron (click to enlarge):



Indeed, LeBron has seen His free throw shooting suffer this year. Through the first three years of His career, His percentage held more or less steady. But now, He seems to be toying with us. We all know that LeBron has to miss the occasional shot on purpose, so as to keep up the illusion of being mortal. I wonder why, however, He's chosen to miss more than His usual share this year. One thing is certain: His plan will become clear, even if it takes years to unfold, and when it does, we will all rejoice in the glory of having been witnesses.

Seriously, though, I'm not ready to be concerned about LeBron's free throw shooting. One thing I've noticed in preparing for this post is that NBA players' free throw percentages tend to fluctuate from year to year. In other words, there's not enough evidence to suggest this decline is part of a larger trend. That said, LeBron is clearly the man most responsible for the team's free throw shooting woes this year, primarily because he's shot almost a third of the Cavaliers' free throw attempts.

Next, Anderson Varejão (click to enlarge):



Anderson has attempted the second-most free throws on the team despite attempting only the seventh-most field goals. From this we might conclude he is ridiculously good at getting to the line. That may be a part of it, but the main reason he attempts such a disproportionate number of foul shots is because, historically, he's been one of the worst free throws shooters in the NBA; therefore, opposing teams have no qualms about fouling him time and time again. It's like Hack-a-Shaq, only... uh, Hack-a-jão.

Luckily, Anderson has shown some serious improvement in his free throw shooting this year. He's still one of the worst foul shooters on the team, but he's no longer one of the worst in the NBA. For that reason, it would be unfair to pin any part of the team's current free throw shooting problem on Varejão. Let us only hope that he continues to improve in this area, because, as long as he's getting minutes, he's going to be shooting a ton of free throws.

Next on the list--Larry Hughes (click to enlarge):



Larry is both getting to the line less and making fewer free throws than in recent years. The drop in his free throw percentage from last season to this one is, in fact, the second largest on the team (behind Eric Snow). Thus, Hughes can indeed be held accountable for a share of the Cavs' current foul shooting problem. This does not bode well for Hughes, whose primary (some might say only) offensive strength in recent years has been his ability to get to the line. Without a decent free throw shooting percentage, he loses a lot of value. I am souring on Hughes more and more with each passing day.

Moving on--next is Drew Gooden (click to enlarge):



One thing we can say for Drew's free throw shooting is that it has been inconsistent. This year, he's actually shooting it pretty well from the foul line--certainly better than last year.

That brings us to Zydrunas Ilgauskas (click to enlarge):



Z has made a well-deserved name for himself as one of the best foul shooting big men in the NBA. Since returning from his injury-plagued early days, he has consistently improved his free throw shooting, until last season when he hit a most impressive peak, shooting .834 from the line. So while it's true that this season, Z is not shooting as high a percentage, it would hardly be fair to hold that against him. His 2006 mark would be extremely hard to maintain over a long period. Besides, even with the decline, Z's free throw percentage is still the second-highest on the team.

In summary, I think it's fair to say that we're not seeing a team-wide epidemic, since players such as Anderson Varejão, Drew Gooden, Sasha Pavlovic, and Damon Jones have seen their free throw shooting improve significantly this season. Rather, three or four others are simply shooting free throws at surprisingly poor levels.

The most important thing is that LeBron improve His percentage. I think He is more than capable of doing this. The other big culprit is Larry Hughes. If these two players alone shape up their foul shooting for the rest of the season, the Cavs will no longer be snake bitten by this embarrassing problem.

And a free throw shooting coach still couldn't hurt.

Since beginning their West Coast road trip on January 9, Cavaliers Basketball Presented by Cub Cadet are 6-9. EVERYBODY PANIC. Everyone from Hubie Brown to random bloggers points to the team's poor free throw shooting as a source for their struggles. I wonder, exactly how bad are the Cavs at shooting free throws? How much of an effect would an improvement make?

The answer to the first question is easy to obtain. Coming into today, the Cavaliers were last in the NBA in free throw-shooting percentage, at .684. That's pretty bad. No wait, that's really bad. That's better than only 152 of the 336 D-I men's basketball teams.

Answering the second question requires some supplementary information: the NBA-wide team average stands at .753 and the Cavaliers attempt 27.1 free throws per game (near the league average of 26.4). In their current, poor-shooting state, the Cavaliers make 18.5 of their 27.1 attempted free throws per game. If they were to improve to league average, that would rise to 20.4. If, by some miracle, the Cavaliers were to become the best free throw-shooting team in the league—a title currently held by Dallas, at .818 (so let's say that the team hits .820)—they would suddenly make 22.2 free throws per game.

But how much would a measly 3.7 or even 1.9 points per game have mattered this season? I used the Pythagorean wins formula to calculate the Cavaliers expected wins and losses for 2006-2007. Then I did the same for if they had been shooting free throws at the NBA average and if they'd been the best in the league all season. Here are the results:

           FT%   EW%    EW-EL
Actual    .684  .571  27.4-20.6
Avg. FT%  .753  .637  30.6-17.4
Best FT%  .820  .693  33.3-14.7

If the Cavaliers were simply average at free throws, they could expect to have won an extra three games this year—a surprisingly big improvement. That's over five wins over the course of 82 games. An average free throwing Cavaliers squad would be the best team in the Eastern Conference (of course, they're already pretty close). And let's not forget the case of the Cavaliers being the best free throwers in the NBA. If that were true, they'd have the best record in the East by an even bigger margin and third-best in the NBA behind Phoenix and Dallas.

The obvious conclusion of this exercise is that the Cavaliers really ought to improve their free throw-shooting. I don't know any specifics about why the team has been doing poorly, but might I recommend hiring a free throw coach? Currently, only the Mavericks employ one and they're the best in the league. There's an issue of correlation and causation here, of course, but why shouldn't the team try it? They could be the number one seed in the playoffs.