Just for you, Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times-enthusiasts.

Q: Hey, Hoynsie: Why does everyone give shortstop Jhonny Peralta a hard time about range? He has the highest range factor among all regular American League shortstops. He had better range and more total chances in 2006 (versus 2005). He's a young player and getting better. Baseball Prospectus has him highly rated defensively — better than Omar Vizquel. I suspect that if the Indians win in 2007 and/or Peralta hits like he did in 2005, his “range” problem will disappear. — Joe Towarnicky, Columbus.

God bless you, Joe Towarnicky of Columbus.

A: Hey, Joe: The criticism directed toward Peralta isn't coming from just the media, but the Indians. They're the ones who broke down every ball hit to him last year and determined he had the worst range of any shortstop in the big leagues. It helps sometimes to get your nose out of Baseball Prospectus, ignore range factor calculations and just watch a guy play. That being said, I agree that if Peralta hits like he did in 2005, range will no longer be a problem.

You hear that, baseball nerds? You should just watch a guy play. Your "statistics" are meaningless in the face of actual eyewitness testimony and revealing anecdotes!

Be that as it may, if the Indians front office judged Jhonny a poor fielder, I'm inclined to believe them, regardless of my previous defenses. Those guys know what they're doing.

The internets have been figuratively buzzing with rumors about the AHL franchise Dan Gilbert is bringing to Cleveland lately, literally! You may have noticed from our extensive coverage, Corey and I aren't really up on this whole "hockey" thing. But this team is of some mild interest to me.

To the best of my knowledge, Cleveland's previous failed hockey team, the Barons, were so named for historicity, or something. Can you believe it? An even earlier Cleveland failed hockey team was called the Barons. Amazing! This time around, the front-runner for team name for a while was "The Fighting Walleye". A little off-the-wall, of course, but in a hey-it's-just-minor-league-hockey kind of way. Which is cool.

So, it was with bated breath that I awaited the announcement of the team name and jerseys this afternoon. Let's hear it for your... Lake Erie Monsters!

Being a self-titled connoisseur of team names, I have some mixed feelings on these so-called Lake Erie Monsters. On the one hand, monsters are a severely underused mascot. I appreciate the ingenuity there. Monsters are big and scary, and can be plenty ferocious. But on the other hand, "Monsters" is suitable for stupid puns like "Monster Mash" (which I guarantee will be used at every game).

Also, I take issue with using "Lake Erie" instead of "Cleveland". I don't think this is a cheap marketing ploy trying to snatch more fans along northern Ohio outside Greater Cleveland, but using Lake Erie in conjunction with monsters calls to mind the Loch Ness Monster. In fact, the team is running with the association. The whole mythos surrounding the Loch Ness Monster is overblown and annoying, and it's frustrating that the Monsters are already resorting to aligning with it. That's just about the least creative marketing strategy possible.

Normally, I'd want to write about the team's colors and jerseys here, but to the best that I can tell, they don't have jerseys yet. And as for colors, the logo has blue, red, yellow, black, and white, allowing for unbridled freedoms come jersey-unveiling season.

So, get your season tickets now—before they sell-out (which they definitely will). As we've seen with the Cleveland Indians, Falcons, Barons (I), Crusaders, Barons (II), Lumberjacks, and Barons (III), Clevelanders have an insatiable thirst for professional hockey, and will stop at nothing to buy tickets and team merchandise. I know I might!

With Trot Nixon set to trot out as the Indians right fielder against right-handed pitchers in 2007 (get it?!), I was disheartened to read in my newspaper of record—The Morning Journal—that Nixon is a likely to hit second. As any sabermetrician worth a lick knows, after countless studies into batting lineup optimization, there now is a general consensus that the #2 hole is one of, if not the most important slots in the order. Hence, a manager should put his best batters there.

Within their humbly-named tome The Book, super-gigantic baseball nerds Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin attempt to derive rules of thumb for constructing the absolute best batting order possible. They even include an excellent summation of their conclusions:

Your three best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2, and #4 slots. Your fourth- and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. The #1 and #2 slots will have players with more walks than those in the #4 and #5 slots. From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality.

You can see where this is going. I am going to attempt to construct the best batting order for the Indians that I can, using the starting lineups that are currently being reported. Of course, a computer model (like Baseball Prospectus's, for instance) would excel at this, except I don't have one of those handy right now.

First, let's see what batters I'll have to work with. When two players are listed at one position, they're expected to platoon with the first playing against righthanders and the second against lefthanders.

• C - Victor Martinez
• 1B - Casey Blake/Ryan Garko
• 2B - Josh Barfield
• 3B - Andy Marte
• SS - Jhonny Peralta
• LF - David Dellucci/Jason Michaels
• CF - Grady Sizemore
• RF - Trot Nixon/Casey Blake
• DH - Travis Hafner

Astute readers may have noticed that we here at the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times been light on baseball content for the past, oh, three months. But now, with the invaluable PECOTA projections available, I'm finally able to have opinions about baseball again! So, unquestionably, I will use PECOTA and unscientifically rank the available pool of players, with heavy reliance on the weighted mean projections for both EqA and VORP.

There are problems right off the bat, though. Firstly, PECOTA doesn't give projections against LHP vs. RHP. So, if anything, the lines for strictly platoon players like Jason Michaels should be improved from what the computer says. Secondly, Trot Nixon and David Dellucci are projected to play for other teams (Boston and Philadelphia, respectively). But, fortunately, VORP and EqA are park-adjusted; this problem ought to be negligible. And finally, VORP is positionally-adjusted, meaning that if a 1B and a SS have equal VORPs, they are not equally good hitters. The first baseman is better, since the baseline for his position is so much higher. I'll try to take that into account, although I'm being explicitly unscientific here.

Anyways, here's what I figure, from best to worst:

1. Travis Hafner
2. Grady Sizmore
3. Victor Martinez
4. David Dellucci
5. Jhonny Peralta
6. Ryan Garko
7. Casey Blake
8. Trot Nixon
9. Jason Michaels
10. Andy Marte
11. Josh Barfield

At first I was going to publish the weighted mean projections for VORP and EqA, but then I had a change of heart. There's a reason Baseball Prospectus makes you pay for these kind of things, after all.

Going by the lessons of The Book, it's clear that Travis, Grady, and Victor should fill the #1, #2, and #4 holes. Those three stand head-and-shoulders above the rest. Grady is the obvious leadoff hitter. I'll put Travis as the second hitter. I realize this seems strange—he's a slugger after all—but modern lineup-construction doctrine is far from perfect. Whatever runs the Indians lose because fewer runners will be on-base when Hafner comes to the plate will be made up for by the fact that he would now receive more plate appearances by moving up in the order. (Also, with Martinez's propensity to ground into double plays, he shouldn't hit directly behind a high OBP guy like Grady, if possible.) And that leaves Victor as the cleanup hitter.

The next two best hitters (Peralta and Dellucci against RHP or Garko against LHP) will fill the #3 and #5 slots. Putting Dellucci as the #3 hitter would result in three consecutive lefties at the top of the order, not the best strategy. Let's stick him at #5, making Jhonny #3, against righties. Since power hitting is more valuable at #5 than at #3, according to The Book, against lefties, Peralta should again hit #3 and Garko #5.

Filling slots #6-#9 in descending order, as dictated, results in these two lineups:

Against RHP

1. Grady Sizemore
2. Travis Hafner
3. Jhonny Peralta
4. Victor Martinez
5. David Dellucci
6. Trot Nixon
7. Casey Blake
8. Andy Marte
9. Josh Barfield

Against LHP

1. Grady Sizemore
2. Travis Hafner
3. Jhonny Peralta
4. Victor Martinez
5. Ryan Garko
6. Casey Blake
7. Jason Michaels
8. Andy Marte
9. Josh Barfield

These batting orders suffer from some obvious complications, like the five consecutive right-handed batters at the end of the "Against LHP" lineup. Any manager would have to deal with these obstacles, and I wouldn't even weakly suggest that Eric Wedge should adopt these. But they're interesting to ponder and the Indians could, maybe even should look into a building computer simulator to test possible batting orders.

Anyways, really, the only strange or compelling things that appear in my lineups are that Travis is in the #2 hole usually reserved for inferior slap-hitting and bunt-laying types, and that Trot Nixon is not, I repeat not, batting second. In fact, he's nowhere close. Let that be a lesson to you: don't stick mediocre hitters in the most important slot in the lineup.

All right, I've been putting this off for long enough. I promise, this is the last time you'll have to read about the 2006 Browns on this blog! It's just that I spent the whole year previewing each Browns game by looking at Football Outsiders' DVOA reports; I thought it would be only too appropriate to see where our boys in brown ended up, DVOA-wise.

Click here to view the final regular season DVOA rankings. Also, click here to read a detailed explanation of how DVOA works. You may also want to check out my Week 1 preview, which opened with a long justification for why I rely so heavily on DVOA (though you can ignore the parts at the end about the Saints being a bad team... ahem).

Anyway, you may recall that the Browns were quite bad in 2006. Without further ado, let's survey the wreckage!

The Offense

                total   NFL rank
total DVOA     -18.2%      31
passing DVOA   -18.1%      29
rushing DVOA   -18.4%      30

There's no question about it--the offense was the team's biggest weakness. A huge part of the problem had to be the stubborn playcalling and run-based philosophy of Maurice Carthon, and, to some extent, Jeff Davidson, and, by association, Romeo Crennel. A huge (and often overlooked) part of the problem had to be the season-ending injury to arguably the most valuable offensive player on the roster (LeCharles Bentley) way back in training camp. And a huge part of the problem had to be the fact that Charlie Frye just isn't going to develop into a top-tier quarterback. That sad realization came gradually over the course of the season, but at this point, I think it's a reasonable conclusion to draw. Here's how the Browns' two passers passed:

                 DPAR    DVOA    passes
Derek Anderson   -8.5   -28.5%    116
Charlie Frye    -17.5   -22.5%    391

Both men ended the season below replacement level. Frye was consistently bad, while Anderson showed a lone flash of brilliance before having one of the worst single games in Browns history. It's probably too soon to pass judgment on Anderson, but Frye has now had more than a full season to show improvement, and hasn't. History says his chances of developing further are seriously slim.

Now here's a look at how the individual Browns players rushed in 2006:

                 DPAR    DVOA    rushes
Charlie Frye      2.8    -9.5%     40
Jason Wright     -0.3   -17.0%     62
Jerome Harrison  -3.7   -61.5%     20
Reuben Droughns  -6.8   -20.1%    219

Depressing, ain't it? For the second straight year in a row, no Browns running back amassed enough DPAR to surpass the paltry rushing DPAR earned by Charlie Frye on scrambles. Indeed, Reuben Droughns was the least productive rusher in the entire NFL in 2006 (Jerome Harrison was 5th-least). Droughns somehow got credit for a good season in 2005, even though his rushing numbers were pretty bad (3.9 DPAR, -11.6% DVOA). Well, in 2006, he not only got even worse, he received a slightly smaller percentage of the team's assigned carries; thus the misguided public affection that once surrounded him has all but faded. Don't get me wrong--I don't want to lay the colossal failure of the Browns running game at the feet of Reuben Droughns alone. I want to lay it at the feet of the offensive linemen and coaching staff, first and foremost. But there's no reason to think Droughns is anything special--there's not even a reason to think he's league-average.

Moving on: the receivers:

                 DPAR    DVOA   thrown to
Kellen Winslow   15.5     7.8%     119
Joe Jurevicius   11.9    12.1%      65
Braylon Edwards   1.7   -13.3%     123
Reuben Droughns   1.3    -3.1%      34
Steve Heiden      1.3    -8.4%      46
Jason Wright      0.0    -9.9%      11
Jerome Harrison  -1.0   -24.3%      14
Josh Cribbs      -2.8   -43.8%      15
Terelle Smith    -3.9   -74.2%      11
Dennis Northcutt -4.8   -31.4%      45

Kellen Winslow finished the season 6th in receiving DPAR by a tight end, though a big part of that is volume (he was the second most thrown-to tight end in football in 2006, and his DVOA ranks him only 16th among qualifying tight ends). Winslow, however, had the second-highest catch percentage of any qualifying player--tight end or receiver--in football, hauling in 75% of the passes that were thrown to him. For Kellen to have such a stellar catch percentage but only a 7.8% receiving DVOA, he must have been targeted on a lot of passes that failed to cross the first-down line. This, I think, is the fault of the playcallers and the quarterbacks--not of Kellen. It's clear to me that, if the Browns begin to use him more efficiently, Winslow will be the best tight end in football. Consider, too, that the only qualifying player in the NFL with a higher catch percentage than Kellen Winslow was teammate Steve Heiden (78%), who had a poor DVOA total himself. This further suggests that the Browns don't use their tight ends very effectively.

As for the wide receivers, Braylon Edwards started the year strongly, but faded big time. His 2005 was pretty good, and lest we forget, he was coming off an injury this season, so perhaps we'll see him improve next year. Joe Jurevicius was arguably the Browns' most effective receiving target this season; it's a pity they didn't throw to him more often. Dennis Northcutt is coming off (something like) his 40th straight year of being absolutely, embarrassingly awful as a receiver. Because he is a good punt returner, he may deserve a roster spot, but damn, he's a horrible receiver--he was the 6th-least productive wideout in the NFL in 2006.

The Defense

                total   NFL rank
total DVOA       5.0%      21
passing DVOA     3.7%      15
rushing DVOA     6.3%      25

Thankfully, it wasn't such an awful year for the defense. They failed to meet our high expectations, perhaps, but they did manage to improve slightly on their 2005 DVOA despite nagging injuries throughout the secondary. That the pass defense finished the year ranked 15th is a little disappointing considering the fact that they ranked 5th in the league after the season's first 10 games, but their all-universe shut-down corner, Leigh Bodden, both played hurt and missed time down the stretch, as we saw. Here's a breakdown of the pass defense's effectiveness when covering each type of opposing receiver:

                 DVOA   NFL rank
vs. #1 WRs      -17.9%      5
vs. #2 WRs        9.7%     19
vs. other WRs     8.5%     21
vs. TEs         -38.6%      3
vs. RBs          11.3%     24

This mirrors the patterns we saw in 2005 to some degree, with the Browns being able to shut down opposing #1 receivers and tight ends. But once again, their problems with DB depth shone through in their inability to contain opposing "other" receivers or running backs.

The Browns' front seven didn't seem to have that great a year. Kamerion Wimbley appeared to be a very effective pass rusher, but the Browns on the whole were not good as sacking opposing quarterbacks: they got a sack on 5.0% of passing plays, which ranks them 27th in the NFL in that area. Furthermore, the front seven proved unable to stop opposing rushers at the line of scrimmage, ranking 27th in the NFL in Adjusted Line Yards. To be honest, stopping the run isn't nearly as important as stopping the pass, so I'm not too concerned for next year's defense, but this is a problem that needs to be fixed. Other teams, running essentially the same Belichick/Crennel-style defense, have excelled at stopping the run. Maybe it's just a type of run defense that requires a couple years to come together, but with Ted Washington likely retiring this offseason, it's not going to get any easier.

The Special Teams

                points  NFL rank
FG/XP kicking    -5.2      27
kickoffs         -0.2      20
kickoff returns   9.7       4
punting           6.9       8
punt returns      0.2       9

The special teams ranked in the NFL's top 3 in DVOA for much of the year, but they completely fell apart in the last few weeks of the season. When the dust settled, the field goal kicking unit had fallen the furthest, ending up as one of the NFL's worst. This, I think, is legitimately attributable to Phil Dawson, who missed a number of "easy" kicks in the second half of the season. The kickoff unit, too, faded as the season went on (remember "Borg Phil Dawson"?). In fact, I seem to recall the field goal and kickoff teams starting strongly but finishing poorly each of the last two years. Perhaps it's time to either cut bait on Phil Dawson, or use him exclusively as an "early Autumn" kicker.

The rest of the special teams did slip a little at the end of the year, but managed to maintain their respectable rankings. The kick return unit was one of the league's best. This is attributable not only to Josh Cribbs but also to a bevy of players whose names I won't attempt to list. Same goes for the punt return team vis-à-vis Dennis Northcutt, and the punt team vis-à-vis Dave Zastudil.

Well, there you have it. That's about all I care to say about the Browns for a few months, anyway. Let's put this one in the books and really get down to doing what we do best: being Witnesses. Go Cavs!

You've been waiting all season for it, it's the last "Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns" of the year! Hooray! Huzzah! Yippee!

As I sit back in my imaginary easy chair, drinking my imaginary snifter of brandy, and stroking my imaginary beard, one thing about this Browns season comes back to me again and again: It's over! So, without further ado, I bring you the last time I will have to think about the Browns for a long time, or "Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns: Season Wrap". Please enjoy...

Play of the Year

Alex says: Leigh Bodden's interception of Carson Palmer, followed by Brian Russell's thunderclapping of Ochenta y Cinco, in Week 2 was 2006's most memorable play, even before accounting for the ensuing Braylon Edwards mishigas weeks later. The play had an NFL Blitz-quality to it. Johnson's helmet popped off like a champagne cork and then the entire Browns defense took turns landing elbow and leg drops on him after the refs blew the whistle. Well, that last part didn't happen per se, but it does happen in my Browns-related dreams each night.

Corey says: Hmm. Not that many great plays spring to mind--I wonder why. I do recall a most-excellent 75-yard touchdown catch/tractor pull by Braylon Edwards against Cincinnati in Week 2, in which Kevin Kaesviharn of the Bengals was literally dragged 20 yards into the endzone while hanging on to Braylon for dear life. Edwards' 2006 was disappointing on the whole, but it certainly was not lacking for big plays.

Offensive Player of the Year

Alex says: Let's start out by listing every offensive starter who couldn't possibly be named player of the year: Charlie Frye, Derek Anderson, Reuben Droughns, Terrelle Smith, Kevin Shaffer, Joe Andruzzi, Hank Fraley, Cosey Coleman, Ryan Tucker, Kelly Butler, Braylon Edwards, and Dennis Northcutt. Which leaves... Kellen Winslow and Joe Jurevicius. Meh, Kellen Winslow, with his vigorous stiff arm of Joey Porter in Week 11 as the deciding factor.

Corey says: Make no mistake: the Browns offense was horrible in 2006. Among the so-called "skill positions", only two players finished the season above league average, according to DVOA. And it's not like I have any insight into the performances of the offensive linemen that would lead me to conclude that any one of them had a decent year. So I'm going with Kellen Winslow, whose season started off torridly before cooling off a little, but still managed to finish the year ranked 6th among all NFL tight ends in DPAR, with 15.5.

Defensive Player of the Year

Alex says: Who doesn't love some extra aggression? I'm giving this honor to Sean Jones, who led the team in total tackles, interceptions, and jumping onto a pile even though the play was already over. (Which one of these statistics isn't meaningless? The results may surprise you.) Corey may have hated the Chris Crocker trade, and maybe the Browns didn't get equal value in it (they drafted Isaac Sowells with their newly acquired pick), but the team was definitely right to put so much confidence into Jones and Brodney Pool.

Corey says: I wrote a little song. It goes like this: "Leigh Bodden, Leigh Bodden, Leigh Bodden, Leigh Bodden, Leigh Booooooooooodeeeeeeen!" But I digress. This year, Leigh didn't quite match his dominance of 2005, but that was entirely due to injuries, and he still managed to be one of the top corners in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders' [admittedly not-yet-100%-complete] game charting data. I think most Browns fans, by now, have come around to the reality that Leigh Bodden is quite underrated and is a player worth keeping. But it really should go beyond that. Leigh Bodden is the best player on the Browns' roster right now. He is probably their most valuable commodity, going forward. And he is one of the top 5 players in the NFL at his position. Spread the word!

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Player of the Year, Other Than Ryan Pontbriand Himself, Of Course

Alex says: How about Dave Zastudil, who amazingly played a near mistake-free year? No botched holds on field goals, hardly any shanks (if any, I can't remember too well), plus he spear headed one of the best punt teams in the league before a late-season slide. Throw in that he's from Greater Cleveland and a burgeoning nickname ("The DZast-er," an Alex Rubin original), and you have an all-around excellent special teamer.

Corey says: The special teams had a pretty good year, even though they fell into a major slump towards the end of the season. I'm going with Josh Cribbs as my non-Pontbriand special teamer of the year, not only because he was the return man on the 4th-ranked kickoff return unit, but because, as I recollect, he was responsible for a number of exciting tackles on kickoffs and punts, especially early in the season.

Al Akins Memorial Obscure Brown of the Year

Alex says: He started off the season as obscure as any Obscure Brown could be and found himself thrust into playing time due to injuries. He slowly worked his way up from the bottom rung, and into our hearts. It's Daven "Busters" Holly! The secondary replacements like Holly and Ralph Brown stunk (repeat: stunk) in their first few weeks in action, but we can chalk that up to inexperience/playing with a new team. With the uncertainty surrounding Gary Baxter's exploded knees, it's great that the Browns could still go three deep in quality cornerbacks. Also, have you seen Daven Holly's official website yet? What it lacks in content, it more than makes up for in music.

Corey says: 2006 was perhaps not the banner year for obscure Browns that 2005 was, but a couple of obscurities did manage to break out. Lennie Friedman was a giant among goyim. Therrian Fontenot taught us all a valuable lesson about not forgetting things. But I'm going with defensive back Jereme Perry, #31, who answered the call after about 500 other defensive backs got injured, helping the secondary to yet another solid year. Let's all hope 2007 brings a fresher, wackier crop of obscure Browns...

Idiot of the Year

Alex says: For reasons I can't delve into unless I want to lose my grip on sanity, this year's biggest idiot is Maurice Carthon. All I can say is thank LeBron he is out of our lives forever. The offense wasn't any kind of world-beater after his sacking, but I'd like to see what Jeff Davidson (or whoever is the next offensive coordinator) can do with a clean slate.

Corey says: While Ray Lewis didn't murder anyone in 2006 that I, personally, am aware of, he still managed to be the biggest idiot in the world for an unprecedented 32nd year in a row! What an iron man!

"Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns" of the Year

In a surprise upset, last year's champion Week 1 couldn't hold it's title against the up-and-coming Week 7! That week saw Corey outline his top five complaints about Offensive Coordinator and World-Renowned Moron Maurice Carthon. We even got a sneak peek of the Derek Anderson Era, with D-Rock earning himself a very special Obscure Brown of the Week award. And what do you know? The very night we published that edition of "Born and Raised", the Browns fired Carthon. Coincidence? It couldn't be. Mazel Tov, Week 7! May your reign be somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 months long!

Drafting a lineup shouldn't too hard for Mike Brown: A couple of guards, two "bigs", a dash of LeBron and you're all set. Choosing the big men is somewhat of a no-lose situation; one of the Cavaliers' biggest strengths is front-court depth. Brown has four quality big men to choose from: Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, Anderson Varejão, and Donyell Marshall.

To save time, Brown could randomly select any two and put them in the game. It's not as crazy as it sounds; each of the possible six combinations is a feasible lineup, as attested by these player pair minute distributions from this season. (The percentages you see are the proportion of the row player's minutes played with the column player on the court. For example, Donyell Marshall has been on the floor for 20% of Drew Gooden's minutes.)

           Z   Gooden  Anderson  Donyell
Z         ---    62%      27%      11%
Gooden    67%    ---      12%      20%
Anderson  34%    14%      ---      47%
Donyell   16%    27%      53%      ---

If using any two big men works, there wouldn't be problems with sticking two particular guys in the same lineup. Thus, the best two players should receive the most minutes. Rarely, there'll be match-up problems with having two smaller guys like Donyell and Drew on the floor, but these occasions don't come by often. So, let's take a look at who the best two really are.

From a big man I would like efficient shooting, rebounding, and turnover avoidance. I'll use True Shooting Percentage, Rebound Rate, and Turnover Rate to measure those areas respectively. And let's throw in PER too, that's a good measure of overall value. Obviously, I'd like them to play great defense as well, but there aren't reliable individual defensive statistics that I know of. I'm working with what I got here.

           TS%  REB-r  TO-r   PER
Z         51.1   17.2  14.0  17.3
Gooden    53.4   19.1  11.3  18.5
Anderson  52.0   15.2   9.8  13.8
Donyell   51.9   14.5  11.7  14.4

Shooting-wise, it's a wash. Drew has been the best rebounder, and Anderson the best at avoiding turnovers. John Hollinger's PER rates Gooden as the best, with Anderson and Donyell lagging behind. The stats suggest to me that Zyrdunas and Drew have been the two most productive big men for the Cavaliers. Anderson gets shortchanged a bit in this study—he's known for defensive intensity and being a regular Floppy McFlopperson—so I'll say he's third best, and deserving of the third most minutes. And finally, Donyell has been the worst (of four talented players, mind you). With this pecking order in place (Gooden, Ilgauskas, Varejão, Marshall), I found that Mike Brown's actual minute distribution from this season isn't too bad: Ilgauskas-28 MPG, Gooden-28 MPG, Varejão-22 MPG, Marshall-19 MPG.

In my examination of the minute distributions to the Cavaliers big men, I looked at many different splits to see if any were significant: month-by-month, in wins vs. in losses, last season vs. this season. I even checked playing on 0 days of rest compared to at least one and at home against away, to follow up on Corey's recent posts.

There aren't many strong correlations that I could see, though interestingly, Zydrunas Ilgauskas sees his minutes bumped up in a couple situations: on the road and on 0 days rest. Why this is, I don't know. Though they're probably related, since (as Corey pointed out) of the Cavaliers' games that have been the second in a back-to-back, the majority have been away from Cleveland. Perhaps Coach Brown feels more comfortable using his bench at home since the team performs better there than on the road.

I'd really like to examine the breakdown of minutes by quarter, specifically the fourth quarter. Of course the starters will play more than the bench during the first and third quarters—hence the nature of being a starter. But in the fourth, when the game is presumedly "on the line", the best players ought to be on the floor. And it's rare that you'll see Drew Gooden playing down the stretch, although that's the time his output would have the most effect on the outcome of the game. Sadly though, I can't find statistics split by quarter on the internet.

Honestly, before I looked at the numbers, I expected this post to be another impassioned defense of all things Drew Gooden. While Drew likely deserves more floor-time than Zydrunas, they're essentially tied—and I'm okay with that. Maybe Gooden deserves an even bigger margin over Varejão and Marshall, but I couldn't justify writing much more about that.

Recently, the media has made a big deal about the Cavs' record when playing the second of back-to-back games. If you watched or listened to Wednesday's contest in Boston, for example, you probably heard some discussion about it. As it stands, the Cavs are currently 2-7 when playing on zero days' rest (and were only 1-7 before beating the Celtics).

To be sure, the Cavs have put up some pretty lousy numbers in the 9 games that fit this criterion. Their offensive efficiency is 98.4 (compared to 104.8 over the whole season) and their defensive efficiency is 105.2 (compared to 101.3 over the whole season). This earns them a Pythagorean winning percentage of .278 in those games, which more or less agrees with the 2-7 record they've actually compiled.

Still, I can't help but wonder if the lack of rest leading up to these games is what's really causing the Cavs' poor performance. For one thing, we may simply be observing a fluke of a small sample size (which 9 games is). Then there's the fact that it's normal for a team to fare slightly worse when playing on zero days' rest. That's going to account for some of the discrepancy; the rest may be entirely explainable by these two factors:

• 7 of the games have been on the road; only 2 at home. While it's true that the second game of a back-to-back is, for some reason, usually a road game (historically, about two thirds of these games are played on the road), we've already seen that the Cavs' home/road split this season is alarmingly wide--much more so than in previous seasons.
• 5 of the 7 losses came against top teams. Detroit, Houston, Chicago, Washington, and Orlando are all in the NBA's top 11, by winning percentage--and they happen to be 5 of the 6 best teams the Cavs have yet faced this season (the other being San Antonio).

In other words, I don't think the Cavs' poor record in these 9 games is evidence of some specific team problem or weakness, nor do I think it's cause for concern.

The team has 13 "second game of a back-to-back"s left this season. 6 of those will be played at home. And only 5 of the 13 will be played against teams that currently have a winning record. Based on these factors, I suspect we'll see this issue disappear before season's end.

Much as I have lots and lots of stuff to say about this game that I definitely remember extremely well and certainly care very much about, I think my brother and I are going to keep it brief this week. The Browns didn't really give us much to work with, but that's okay, we're phoning this one in from so far away, we're using a special satellite phone that only works in McMurdo Station, Antarctica. (And you thought I couldn't work a McMurdo Station reference into a second consecutive "Born and Raised"!)

Play of the Week

Alex says: Daven Holly's interception at the goal line could not have come at a more opportune moment. The Texans were cruising down the field and looked set to score the first points of the game. Though it was clear that the offense was floundering, at this point in the game, the Browns appeared to have a prayer due to the defense and Houston's own dreadfulness. In the early weeks of 2006, the secondary appeared in chaos. Gary Baxter, Leigh Bodden, and Daylon McCutcheon were all injured at some point. I laughed at the likes of Ralph Brown and Daven Holly. But now--well I still laugh at Ralph Brown. But Daven "Buster's" Holly has played much better at the end of the season and I believe should be brought back next season. He's a great insurance policy should either Baxter not heal quickly or McCutcheon not return from sabbatical.

Corey says: Yes, I too, will go with Daven Holly's interception, if for no other reason than this: I can't bear to name a an offensive play, when the offense played like crap despite facing the worst defense in the entire NFL.

Player of the Week

Alex says: Oh Charlie Frye, how far we've come. Why, it seems like just yesterday we were envisioning a killer Frye-to-Edwards combination or were chanting "Char-lie! Char-lie!" as Trent Dilfer struggled with a near-talentless offense. But now, closing the book on 2006, we can look back at the disaster that was "Charlie Frye, starting quarterback": Sixth-worst among qualified quarterbacks by yards per attempt, seventh-worst by QB rating, eighth-worst by DVOA, and third-worst by DPAR. And even though Charlie's statistics against Houston look mildly impressive (a near 75% completion rate), his average pass traveled around five yards in the air. So it's with an air of woe and hope that I can say, "nice knowing you."

Corey says: I could go with Kellen Winslow, who caught 11 of 13 passes thrown to him, increasing his catch percentage to 75% for the season--second among all tight ends in the NFL with at least 25 passes (trailing only... surprise! Steve Heiden, whose catch percentage was 78%). But most of Kellen's receptions in this contest were very short gains, so I don't think his value to the Browns was that high in this one. So I'll go with Daven Holly, who, according to the official play-by-play, was only tested by the Houston offense on 3 occasions (1 completion for 11 yards, 1 incompletion, and 1 interception). This small number of passes may be a function of excellent coverage, though it's hard to say. Anyway, he did a good job. Honorable mention goes to Babatunde Oshinowo, who finally got into a game!

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"I think that going forward Phil [Dawson] is cognizant of the fact that he needs to be able to produce for us." --Romeo Crennel

Is that a threat to Phil Dawson I hear? In Romeo-speak, this seems a very harsh criticism of Dawson's lagging performance late this season. If you remember, Phil started off the year on a torrid pace--even requiring the coining of a new nickname, "Borg Phil". But in the four games in the month of December, he missed four of his eight attempts. And Dawson has never had a strong leg. So once his accuracy goes, he's worthless. Fortunately for the Browns, kickers are essentially fungible, and cheap. But Phil isn't old (32 when 2007 kicks off) and I'd like to think he's slightly beloved by Browns fans. I know I like him. Let's just hope that December was an aberration. Of course, if the Browns bring in some challengers next training camp, I can't say I blame them.

Corey says:

"It's something I'm proud of that I was able to stick it out when a lot of guys may have thought this was a meaningless game." --Charlie Frye

Charlie has got a point. A lot of people may have thought this was a meaningless game. But Charlie took this game as an opportunity to show us all what he can do, so that we'd all feel better about having him as the starter heading into 2007! And boy do I feel better, don't you? (What was the asking price for Byron Leftwich again?)

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: I don't have a Moment, per se, for this week, but want to use this space to congratulate long snapper and gift from LeBron Ryan Pontbriand on yet another perfect season. He has still not botched a snap since his freshman year of high school. Ryan's got a few years on me, and I'm not even a professional long snapper, but I'm sure I've messed up a few since my own freshman year. With the storied excellence of Ryan Kuehl and now Pontbriand, it's been a long, long time since Browns fans have fell victim to a poor snap. I'd like to know, when was the last time the Browns long snapper screwed up?

Corey says: Dave Zastudil punted three times, and all three were downed inside the 20. That's really something. I mean, think about that--the Browns only punted three times all day?!

Leo Biedermann Memorial Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: Name luminaries such as D'Qwell Jackson and Mason Unck have shone all year, and up-and-comers like Babatunde Oshinowo were signed to the active roster late in the season. With this wealth of name talent, players who might be stars on other teams get overlooked. One sad example of this is rookie tight end Buck Ortega, who ended the season on the practice squad. Hopefully, Buck will work hard this off-season and come back in 2007 deserving of a roster spot. There should always be room on a team for a guy named Buck Ortega.

Corey says: I've been waiting all season for Therrian "Don't Forget" Fontenot to be called up form the practice squad. And this week, the Browns made my dreams come true!!! Okay, my dream--singular. Anyway, Therrian (pronounced "THEER-ian") continues a proud tradition of Fontenots who have played for the Cleveland Browns, from Herman, all the way on down to, uh, Therrian. And just like the song says, we'll never forget them!!!

Fashion Item of the Week

Alex says: We've held our breath through four weeks of pre-season and seventeen of the regular one, and only now can I safely say: The orange jerseys are dead! Long live Randy Lerner and his impeccable sense of style. Rot in hell, orange jerseys. Although, this loss is somewhat of a bittersweet one since the orange pants were dumped this season as well. The pants were an interesting if not quirky touch. But if losing the orange pants were the cost of finally ridding the world of orange jerseys, so be it! Now if only the Browns could bring back striped socks.

Corey says: Alex, I believe your memory chip is malfunctioning. The Browns got rid of the orange pants well before the start of this season. The last time they wore them was in either 2003 or 2004 (I don't feel like checking). At any rate, I agree that it's nice to finally be rid of the orange jerseys. It's also nice to finally, now, be rid of those stupid "60th anniversary" patches. Commemorative patches are extremely ugly and stupid and ugly to begin with, but who celebrates a 60th anniversary with such pomp, anyway?

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: Play-by-play announcer Don Criqui, after Houston began the third quarter with two consecutive touchdowns: "The Texans really came out playing football in the second half!" Amazingly, that's not the stupidest thing he said during the telecast. While Don and his partner Some Guy were recounting the lineage of great Browns running backs, Don mentioned that he played high school ball against Marion Motley. Motley was born in 1920, meaning that he likely graduated high school in 1938. Now, let's say that Don was a freshman during Marion's senior year, meaning that Criqui graduated in 1941. Which means that Don Criqui is either 83 years old or lying. Oh, and let's not forget that Motley went to Canton McKinley while Don grew up in Buffalo.

Corey says: Um, the Idiot of the Week is... Ray Lewis. That guy sure is an idiot!

Number of the Week

Alex says: -5.9, Reuben Droughns's DPAR for Week 17, good enough for worst among all non-quarterbacks. In his preview, Corey noted that, coming into Sunday, Houston was 26th in the NFL against the rush and 32nd defending passes to running backs. So, the Browns promptly put up one of the worst rushing games in the NFL that week and capitalize on Houston's weakness to receptions out of the backfield by throwing to Droughns three times for a grand total of two yards. Actually, he didn't perform too badly when he held onto the ball--owning a near-50% success rate. It's those two fumbles that are so costly. With his throwing arm practically in a sling, Charlie Frye could only muster the arm strength to throw one interception. So someone needed to pick up the slack, and Reuben was that someone. It was a fitting end for such an underwhelming year from the running backs.

Corey says: Charlie Frye threw for 187 yards, with no touchdowns and an interception. David Carr threw for 86 yards, with no touchdowns and an interception. Neither played particularly well, but who had the better game? Carr averaged 5.7 yards per pass; Frye 5.5. Carr averaged 9.5 yards per completion; Frye 7.5. And that doesn't take into account the fact that Charlie got to face league's worst defense. Not knowing the exact DPAR totals for the game, I'd probably take Carr's performance over Frye's. It's great that the Browns held an opposing QB to only 86 yards passing, but meanwhile, our own QB had himself as bad a game--or worse.

Moral Standings

Ohhhhh! So close! The Browns entered Week 17 perched on the edge of history--needing only 1 moral victory to finish with the NFL's first ever morally undefeated record. Alas, it was not to be, as Houston just barely squeaked by the Browns, handing them their first moral loss since December of 2005. At least the Browns have (hypothetical) home field advantage throughout the moral playoffs. Elsewhere, the Bengals morally fell to the Steelers, while the Ravens--no surprise--put the finishing touches on the worst moral season in the history of organized sports. They will pick first in the moral draft.

            MW  ML  MT   pct
Cleveland   15   1   0  .938
Cincinnati   8   8   0  .500
Pittsburgh   6   9   1  .406
Baltimore    0  17   0  .000

Next week: Take a deep breath, Cavs fans--we've got one more "Born and Raised" to go before we put this baby to sleep for the winter. Join us next week as we recap this unforgettable season the only way we know how: with gusto!