This week, faithful readers, our beloved Colts wrap up the regular season with a final divisional battle. Can Tennessee waffle Indy, or will the Titans be French toast? Let's preview!

As always, the stats in this preview are borrowed from Football Outsiders' DVOA reports. Click here for a detailed explanation of how DVOA works.

Colts offense vs. Titans defense:

           IND offense  TEN defense
total DVOA    29.2%       -12.3%
passing       45.7%       -17.5%
rushing       11.3%        -4.9%

The Colts have the #2 offense in football, with a 2nd-ranked passing attack and a 4th-ranked rushing attack. Not surprisingly, Peyton Manning ranks second in the league with 126.4 passing DPAR. They should make a TV commercial about that! Anyway, the Colts are ridiculously efficient, and have almost no weaknesses on offense.

The Titans defense, meanwhile, has been the strength of the team (and the main reason they're fighting for a playoff spot). They rank 4th by DVOA (2nd vs. the pass, 15th vs. the run); however, they have been less successful in recent weeks, as their weighted DVOA of -7.2 ranks them only 9th in the NFL. The Colts would be well-advised to try to isolate their dominant wide receivers against the Titans' starting corners, as Tennessee has been known to surrender yardage to #1 and #2 receivers (-4.4% and 1.7% DVOA, respectively). They've been pretty dominant at shutting down other types of receivers, to be fair. Still, Advantage: Colts

Titans offense vs. Colts defense:

           TEN offense  IND defense
total DVOA    -6.2%       -12.4%
passing      -13.4%       -18.9%
rushing        0.0%        -6.0%

If you haven't seen much Colts football this year (though I can't understand why you wouldn't have—what else would have been watching all these Sundays?), you might be marginally surprised to learn that the Indianapolis defense has been dominant, ranking 2nd by DVOA. The key has been the #1-ranked pass defense, though the 10th-ranked run defense hasn't been too shabby either (certainly a huge improvement over last year). The Colts shut down all types of receivers pretty well, though #2 receivers (5.7% DVOA) and running backs (-5.4%) can have limited pass-catching success against them.

The Titans don't pose much of a threat on offense. They rank 21st in both regular and weighted DVOA, but just 23rd in passing offense. The one thing they have going for them is an ability to run the ball at an exactly league-average level. Running back Chris Brown has been by far the most efficient weapon, ranking 3rd among all running backs in rushing DVOA (26.0%); luckily, he gets less than 23% of the team's running back carries. The bulk of the workload goes to LenDale White, who's been below average on a per-play basis (-6.7% DVOA). Meanwhile, quarterback Vince Young has been inefficient with his passes (-11.9% DVOA, to rank 32nd). Interestingly, he's rushed more than any QB in football this year (71 attempts—the next most rushingest QB has only 37 attempts). The thing is, Young's rushing antics do very little to help his team, with a rushing DVOA of -22.5%. I feel the Colts should have no trouble holding the Tennessee offense in check. Advantage: Colts

Special teams matchups:

                         Colts    Titans
total DVOA               -4.9%     -2.0%
FG kicking              -11.7       8.5
IND kickoff vs. TEN KR  -16.4      -5.6
IND KR vs. TEN kickoff   -4.2       4.9
IND punt vs. TEN PR      -8.7      -6.8
IND PR vs. TEN punt      14.0     -11.7

The Colts are extremely weak in almost every area of special teams, which ranks them 30th in total special teams DVOA. Their saving grace is the punt return team, which ranks #2 in the NFL. The Titans are no special teams deities themselves (20th in DVOA), though they're better than the Colts. Their 30th-ranked punt team could have trouble containing Indy returner T.J. Rushing, but they hold the edge in each of the other areas (especially field goal kicking and kicking off). Advantage: Titans

Now, I know what you're thinking. The Colts are likely to rest some of their starters, so none of this information is relevant! Well, that's not entirely true. The bad part is, Jim Sorgi is no Peyton Manning, and it would be reasonable to expect less from the Colts' passing offense. The good part is, Football Outsiders has found that in the past, contrary to popular assumption, teams that rest their starters in Week 17 don't experience that big of a drop from their season-long DVOA, on average. All I'm saying is, I wouldn't take it as a given that Colts will play worse than they usually do. It's possible, but far from guaranteed.

At any rate, it should be a good, if nerve-wracking, game to watch. Go Colts!






I said "Go Colts!" What more do you want from me?






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What's that? You want me to talk about the Browns and 49ers? Seriously? Well, okay...

                 Browns         49ers
offense        7.8% (10th)  -29.8% (32nd)
defense        8.7% (22nd)   12.1% (28th)
special teams  5.7% (4th)     6.1% (2nd)

San Francisco is the worst team in the NFL, and has been for the entire year. Their defense has improved a little bit, while the Browns offense has cooled off a little bit, but even then, the matchup is lopsided. The 49ers offense, meanwhile, is historically bad (they're no longer on pace to have the worst offensive DVOA on record; however, they're still in the picture). The Browns defense has really improved in recent weeks, having put forth its greatest effort last week against Cincinnati. San Francisco's one area of strength is special teams, where they've recently maneuvered past the Browns in DVOA. Their specialty is punting, at which they're the best in the NFL (23.5 pts over avg). Oh, and in case you're wondering, their kickoff team is good, but not great (2.6). All in all, this is a game the Browns will usually win, not that it matters. Enjoy this one, too! But don't forget to celebrate LeBron Day! And, uh... go Colts!