Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times

for the Cleveland sports fan

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Browns vs. Bills Preview

by Corey

Can the Browns buffalo Buffalo? Will Braylon Edwards be doing the pancake dance in the endzone? Will we all be doing the pancake dance Monday morning? Do you think I can phrase every sentence in this Browns preview in the form of a question?

Hey, did you know that the stats in this preview come from Football Outsiders' weekly DVOA reports? Have you clicked here yet to learn all about how DVOA works?

Browns offense vs. Bills defense:

           CLE offense  BUF defense
total DVOA 12.5% 2.5%
passing 22.9% 7.5%
rushing 0.7% -3.9%
Are you getting tired of all these sentences in the form of a question? 'Cause I am! Anyway, the Browns continue to have the NFL's 7th-best offense. They're 8th in passing and 11th in rushing. And even though some of Derek Anderson's gaudiest performances came earlier in the year, the Browns' weighted offensive DVOA shows that they've actually been getting better in recent weeks (14.9%, to rank 6th). I'm sure this has a lot to do with the major improvement we've seen in the running game lately. Jamal Lewis has still been extremely boom-or-bust, which, in general, is a bad thing, but his booms, at least, have been more plentiful in the last few weeks than they had been early in the season. On top of that, the Browns' other running backs continue to have good success when they are handed the ball. Overall, this has gone from the offense's biggest weakness to a minor strength.

Defensively, the Bills have been near-average. Their DVOA ranks them 18th, while their weighted DVOA (1.0%) ranks them 17th. And even though they have been more effective at stopping the run than stopping the pass, they rank higher in pass defense (15th) than run defense (18th) due to peculiarities of the other 31 teams' ratings. When passing, the Browns ought to look for the wide receiver matched up on Buffalo's #2 cornerback (either Jabari Greer or Ashton Youboty). The Bills have had problems containing their opponents' #2 receivers (31.8% DVOA, to rank 28th), but been good at containing all other types of receivers. I am merely hypothesizing that this is due to a weak tandem at the #2 corner, but if I'm right, the Browns should do everything they can to create favorable matchups. Meanwhile, the Buffalo front seven has actually been worse than the Browns' at pressuring the QB (if you can believe it). They have recorded a sack on only 4.5% of passing plays, which ranks them 30th in the NFL. I expect the Browns to have ample opportunities for offensive success. Advantage: Browns

Bills offense vs. Browns defense:

           BUF offense  CLE defense
total DVOA -2.6% 12.3%
passing 0.5% 22.4%
rushing -5.4% -0.1%
I felt that last week's performance against the Jets was the Browns defense's strongest, and DVOA seems to agree (though I don't have the totals for each individual game). The team's defensive DVOA ranking has risen to 27th, the highest it's been all year. And the weighted numbers have the Browns at 26th, exactly 10.0% worse than league average. Cleveland now ranks 29th at defending the pass and 24th at defending the run. It's a slight improvement, but I'll take it.

The Bills rank 20th in offensive DVOA, but have really improved in recent weeks. The difference between their actual and weighted DVOAs is one of the largest of any team (weighted, they rank 17th with a 0.9% DVOA). That said, I spent a long time trying to figure out what, exactly, they do particularly well. Their starting QB (Trent Edwards) ranks 21st in both passing DPAR (13.9) and DVOA (3.8%). None of their receiving targets rate especially well (and those with the highest receiving DVOAs have not been thrown the ball very often). Finally, I realized that Buffalo succeeds simply by not having any major weak links. They're average and forgettable. Which ought to be enough to score points against the Browns defense. Advantage: Bills

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns     Bills
total DVOA 7.1% 5.1%
FG kicking 2.0 6.8
CLE kickoff vs. BUF KR 4.5 4.0
CLE KR vs. BUF kickoff 30.7 -4.0
CLE punt vs. BUF PR -4.6 4.7
CLE PR vs. BUF punt 1.4 12.9
The Browns still rank 2nd in special teams DVOA (also in weighted DVOA), while the Bills rank 6th (7th in weighted). The kickoff return team is still (probably) the most dominant force in special teams history; it's just that no one seems willing to give Josh Cribbs any decent return opportunities anymore. Oh well, the field position will still be excellent. Buffalo ranks 23rd in kicking off, so, if they do decide to kick off in a regular fashion (which they probably won't), there's a very good chance to see some more magic. In other news, the Browns' kickoff team had a great game against the highly-rated Jets return team, and now ranks 7th in the league. Buffalo's strongest suits have been punting (they rank 2nd), field goal kicking (4th), and returning punts (tied for 9th)—all areas in which they'll hold a decided advantage over the Browns. Still, let's be serious... Advantage: Browns

I invite you to name an NFL team that's more average and nondescript than the Buffalo Bills. The Bills have not been the most consistent team in the league, as they started the year poorly and have slowly grown stronger, but all along they have been about as balanced as possible, without any glaring strengths on offense or defense—and without any glaring weaknesses.

The Browns are clearly better than the Bills, but Buffalo's slow climb up the rankings has actually brought them within sniffing distance. Their overall DVOA of o.o% (go figure) ranks them 17th in the NFL; their weighted DVOA of 4.4% ranks them 13th, 2 spots behind Cleveland. Consider, too, that a win for the Bills would put them in possession of the AFC's #6 seed (bumping the Browns). On the flip side, a win for the Browns, combined with a few other results, could actually clinch a pancake berth. Point is, a lot is riding on this one. But you knew that already. See you at the stadium!

Finally, John-David Filing, if you're reading this, please e-mail me. Thank you!

Posted at 5:00 PM

1 Comments:

Anonymous Suomynona said…
You bet I'll see you at the stadium.

They better have chopped onions for the brats this time.

Has anyone else here noticed the sporadic availability of onions?

My section always seems to have a lot of out-of-town fans from the other team. It's been very painful in past years to have to sit and listen to them, but it was great for the Ravens game this year. Hopefully if a lot come in from Buffalo the Browns will keep them quiet so I can enjoy my brat and beer in peace.
Posted at 3:52 PM, December 14, 2007  

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