Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times

for the Cleveland sports fan

Friday, November 2, 2007

Browns vs. Seahawks Preview

by Corey

Hey Cleveland, it's Corey. Of the teams remaining on the Browns' schedule, only Pittsburgh rates higher than the Seahawks, according to DVOA. Are the Browns up to the challenge? Let's preview.

As always, statistics are borrowed from Football Outsiders' weekly DVOA reports. A detailed explanation of how DVOA works can be found here.

Browns offense vs. Seahawks defense:

           CLE offense  SEA defense
total DVOA 10.3% -5.6%
passing 24.1% -4.1%
rushing -4.7% -7.4%
The emergence of the Browns passing game makes me very, very happy. They rank 7th in passing DVOA, which accounts for the offense's overall rank of 11th. Not surprisingly, Derek Anderson ranks 4th (more or less) in passing DPAR, with 36.7. Here are the top passing seasons in New Browns history, by DPAR:
Anderson  2007  48.2
Dilfer 2005 14.9
Holcomb 2004 13.7
Holcomb 2002 12.4
Garcia 2004 11.2
For Derek Anderson not to finish 2007 having racked up the most single-season passing DPAR of any New Brown, he would basically have to replicate Spergon Wynn's legendary 2000 campaign twice over the course of the final 9 games. Here are the current all-time standings for New Browns passing DPAR:
Anderson  39.7
Holcomb 33.0
Dilfer 14.9
Garcia 11.2
Detmer 8.4
McCown -20.0
Pederson -21.1
Wynn -21.2
Frye -32.8
Couch -64.9
So basically, Anderson is extremely likely to finish 2007 as the New Browns' all-time passing champion. It's exhilarating and depressing at the same time!

But enough about that. Let's talk about the Seattle defense. Just like the Browns offense, they rank 11th by DVOA. And they are balanced, stopping the pass (10th) and the run (11th) about equally well. When the Browns take to the air, they'd do well to find Kellen Winslow—Seattle ranks 28th in stopping passes to tight ends (44.3% DVOA). Seattle is also 28th in stopping passes to "other" receivers (37.1%), but they do an excellent job containing #1s (-25.6%, 6th) and #2s (-2.9%, 12th). So it may not be Braylon's best week.

One thing that concerns me slightly is that, while Charlie Frye was not capable of leading the Browns offense in any competent fashion, he probably knows the playbook about as well as anyone on Earth not currently employed by the Cleveland Browns. Obviously, the Browns are aware of this, so hopefully they will try to throw some surprises into the gameplan. But it will certainly have its effect. This is already a matchup of strength on strength; I'll say Slight advantage: Browns

Seahawks offense vs. Browns defense:

           SEA offense  CLE defense
total DVOA -2.5% 17.9%
passing 12.5% 34.4%
rushing -21.4% -0.9%
Seattle has struggled a bit on offense, ranking 18th overall. The passing game has been fine (ranking 12th), but the 30th-ranked running game has completely fallen apart, thanks to a weak offensive line. The receivers to watch out for are Bobby Engram (27.4% DVOA) and Deion Branch (22.3%). Tight end Marcus Pollard has also been great (32.4%). #2 receiver Nate Burleson has been absolutely terrible (-30.9%).

The Browns defense still has not shown signs of improvement—remember that last week, they faced one of the worst offenses in football. Overall, they rank 29th in the NFL, but the passing defense ranks an alarming 31st (the run D ranks 18th). Against Seattle, it's going to be even harder to lock down those receiving targets than in weeks past, so the onus really falls on the front seven to take advantage of the weak offensive line. Advantage: Seahawks

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns   Seahawks
total DVOA 7.6% 9.4%
FG kicking 2.6 5.5
CLE kickoff vs. SEA KR 2.4 5.7
CLE KR vs. SEA kickoff 13.4 7.8
CLE punt vs. SEA PR 0.9 6.2
CLE PR vs. SEA punt 0.3 -1.1
The Browns rank 3rd in special teams DVOA, but the Seahawks rank 2nd. The marquee matchup will be the #1 kickoff return team in the NFL (Browns) against the #2 kickoff team (Seahawks). The other matchups, however, tend to favor Seattle, which is more balanced than the Browns. Their punt return team ranks 4th in the league, their kickoff return team ranks 5th, and they have enjoyed the 2nd-best field goal kicking. Advantage: Seahawks

This game is going to be one of the Browns' toughest challenges of the season. That doesn't mean they won't win it. I can't wait!

Posted at 10:30 AM

8 Comments:

Anonymous Of Toronto said…
Browns 30, Goodbye Charlie Fryes 27
Posted at 6:24 PM, November 02, 2007  
Blogger Alex said…
How can Derek Anderson have 36.7 DPAR right now, yet also have 48.2 for the 2007 season?
Posted at 7:56 PM, November 02, 2007  
Blogger Corey said…
Al,

If you'll re-read my prev', you'll note that 39.7 is Anderson's career passing DPAR, while 48.2 is his 2007 passing DPAR. His 2006 passing was below replacement level.

C. Thelonius Rubin III
Posted at 10:58 PM, November 02, 2007  
Blogger Alex said…
Cordog,

I don't think you understand. You quote three DPAR numbers for DAnd: "Derek Anderson ranks 4th ... with 36.7"; "Anderson 2007 48.2"; "Anderson 39.7". Which is one which, huh tough guy?

Alexander Alexanderson Rubin
Posted at 5:30 PM, November 03, 2007  
Blogger Tyler said…
How much of a factor could Charlie Frye's knowledge be, this far into the season? Don't NFL playbooks have to get turned over every couple of weeks anyway?
Posted at 10:38 AM, November 04, 2007  
Anonymous Don said…
wow. either "of toronto" is just THAT awesome, the time stamp is wrong, or I need to go to Toronto and hang with him before making my bets.. nice!
Posted at 10:16 AM, November 05, 2007  
Anonymous tim said…
I miss my Born & Raised on the Cleveland Browns... come back soon, gentlemen.
Posted at 1:42 PM, November 06, 2007  
Blogger Kevin said…
HILARIOUS that the two QB's not named Brady that we've drafted to be the latest incarnation of the savior of the franchise are the two lowest rated! Behind Spergon Wynn, Luke McCown, and Doug Pederson, no less.

Thank God we took Spergon Wynn over that loser from The School Up North. What was his name again? Tom Something-Or-Other...
Posted at 2:25 PM, November 06, 2007  

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