This week's game is unquestionably the Browns' toughest test on the remaining schedule. The Steelers are only ranked 4th in the NFL by overall DVOA (36.1%), but that has a lot to do with the fact that the Patriots, Colts, and Cowboys are having historically good years. The Steelers' current overall DVOA actually makes them the 15th best team of the DVOA era (that is, the last 12 years). In other words, in a normal year, there's a pretty good chance they would be #1 in the NFL right now.

Anyway, all statistics herein are borrowed from Football Outsiders' weekly DVOA reports. A detailed explanation of how DVOA works can be found here.

Now, who's ready for the longest Browns preview I've ever written?

Browns offense vs. Steelers defense:

           CLE offense  PIT defense
total DVOA    13.1%       -23.0%
passing       27.1%       -23.3%
rushing       -3.1%       -22.6%

Another good game has elevated the Browns' offensive rank to 7th, according to DVOA. The passing game ranks 6th in the NFL, while the running game ranks 13th. The offensive line has risen to 11th in Adjusted Sack Rate (allowing a sack on 5.0% of passing plays, although that number would be in the 3% range if we threw out the Charlie Frye Debacle), and 9th in Adjusted Line Yards (suggesting that the Browns' success in the rushing department is due more to the offensive line than to the backs). The Browns' rushing attempts are still ridiculously better when running left (5.66 ALY left end, 4.65 left tackle) than when running right (2.58 right end, 4.03 right tackle), which further suggests that we are seeing the influence of some strong offensive linemen.

Meanwhile, Derek Anderson ranks third in the NFL in passing DPAR, behind Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. That doesn't make him the third-best QB in the league, but it does mean he has had the third-most success so far in 2007. Derek has racked up 60.5 DPAR through the air, though there are five QBs who are extremely close behind (Palmer, Brees, Romo, Favre, Garcia).

Of course, he's going to have his toughest test this week, as the Steelers possess the league's #2 defense by DVOA (trailing only Tennessee). And Pittsburgh rates equally well at stopping the pass (3rd) and stopping the run (3rd). That isn't to suggest the Steelers' D can't be taken advantage of. They rank 1st in the NFL in defensive DVOA variance (13.2%), meaning they have been the least consistent defense in the NFL in 2007.

Pittsburgh's defensive success obviously depends on pressuring the QB, especially through the use of confusion and big blitzing. The Steelers rank 2nd in the NFL in defensive Adjusted Sack Rate, recording a sack on 8.8% of passing plays. The flip side is that they leave themselves extremely vulnerable to offenses who are capable of picking up the blitz. The Steelers' secondary has always been a little suspect, and they currently rank only 19th in defending passes to #1 receivers (11.2% DVOA), 23rd in defending passes to #2 receivers (23,9%), and 23rd in defending passes to tight ends (31.6%). Clearly, their M.O. is to ensure that the QB doesn't get a chance to attempt those passes in the first place. For that reason, the most important players for the Browns this week (besides Derek Anderson, of course) may be Jamal Lewis and Jason Gomillion Wright, who will be charged with picking up the extra blitzer on most of the Browns' passing plays. In summary, yes, the Steelers defense can definitely be beaten, but they can just as easily reign tyranny upon the Browns in a manner most foul (in other words... what we're used to). Advantage: Steelers

Steelers offense vs. Browns defense:

           PIT offense  CLE defense
total DVOA    13.6%        18.5%
passing       31.1%        36.4%
rushing       -0.1%        -2.8%

Another bad game has dropped the Browns' defensive rank to 30th, according to DVOA. Somehow, the defense (and special teams) played poorly enough against Seattle to lower the Browns' overall team DVOA, despite the fact they won the game (either that, or other teams' performances caused the system to re-evaluate the Browns' previous rating—but I digress). Thus, we'll have to wait until another day to celebrate breaking into "positive numbers". Sufficed to say, the Browns defense is not helping matters, especially with their inability to stop the pass. The passing D ranks 31st in the NFL, while the run D ranks 18th. A look at the Browns' DVOA vs. each type of receiving target sheds a little bit of light on the problem:

                  DVOA  rank
#1 receivers     10.7%   18
#2 receivers     23.5%   22
other receivers  27.1%   28
tight ends       30.4%   22
running backs    -4.1%   16

Until you get to the "running backs" category, it certainly looks like the further you get down the depth chart, the poorer the coverage has been. If we assume that Leigh Bodden is matching up on "#1 receivers" more than anyone else, we can conclude that, while he is by no means living up to his all-star performances of the past 3 seasons, he is far from the biggest culprit here. The other DBs have just been plain terrible. The Browns have a depth problem, and I, for one, have no explanation for it. Eric Wright is a rookie, yes, but he alone doesn't account for the change.

Remember that last year, pass defense was the team's biggest strength. Presumably, the system and schemes are the same. Maybe we're just seeing a bunch of guys having down years at the same time (possible). Maybe the league has "figured out" the Crennel/Grantham defense (unlikely). I would suggest that the pass rush has gotten weaker and that the effects are trickling down into the secondary, but the numbers say that's not the case (the 2006 pass rush was about as bad as it gets). I have no answers.

The Steelers offense represents a big challenge, as they rank 6th in the NFL, a wee smidge ahead of the vaunted offensive juggernaut I like to call "the Cleveland Browns". Like the Browns offense (in fact, like all successful offenses), the Steelers are doing it through the air. They rank 5th in passing DVOA, and 10th in rushing DVOA. This does not bode well for the Browns, whose best hope is that the Steelers mimic the Seahawks, rushing up the middle in obvious passing situations.

A bit surprisingly, the man the Browns need to be most concerned about is not Hines Ward, whose receiving numbers are decent (5.3 DPAR, 4.8% DVOA), but Santonio Holmes, whose receiving DVOA (54.6%) ranks him 2nd among all wideouts (behind Randy Moss). Holmes ranks 7th in receiving DPAR (17.3) despite being targeted only 37 times. Similarly, Heath Miller ranks 3rd among tight ends in receiving DVOA (46.6%), but 6th in DPAR because he's only been targeted 31 times. All things considered, I just don't see the Browns defense shutting down the Steelers' passing game without some kind of miraculous, genie-intervention-involving return to the levels of last year's secondary. (Let's just hope the game turns into a shootout...) Huge advantage: Steelers

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns   Steelers
total DVOA                4.5%     -0.5%
FG kicking                1.7       5.2
CLE kickoff vs. PIT KR    3.1       5.3
CLE KR vs. PIT kickoff   14.3      -3.6
CLE punt vs. PIT PR      -6.6      -6.6
CLE PR vs. PIT punt       0.8      -1.7

The Browns special teams continue to slip down the rankings, now 8th in the NFL, according to DVOA. The Steelers, meanwhile, rank 16th—a huge improvement over previous years, but still not quite in the Browns' league. Pittsburgh's specialest of teams are the field goal kicking unit, which ranks 3rd in the NFL, and the kick returning unit, which ranks 7th (and will be facing off against the Browns' 10th-ranked kickoff unit). The Steelers' weaknesses are punt returning, at which they rank dead last in the NFL (lucky for them—the Browns' punt team ranks 29th), and kicking off, at which they rank 23rd (lucky for us—the Browns rank 2nd at returning kickoffs). The mismatch in the kick returning department is a particular one that the Browns can exploit. And they're probably going to need to make up lots of ground in the realm of special teams, so... go, Cribbs, go! Advantage: Browns

The fact of the matter is, the Browns may be one game out of first place, but the Steelers are still way, way better. The one hope we Browns fans can cling to is that Pittsburgh, for all its success, is the most inconsistent team in the NFL—that is, they mix some honkers in with their dominating victories. The Cardinals and Broncos (both in the bottom 12 in DVOA) each beat the Steelers, so of course, the Browns can. They're just going to need the Steelers to help them out a little.

In closing, go Browns.