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DVOA reports. How DVOA works.

Browns offense vs. Cardinals defense:

           CLE offense  ARI defense
total DVOA    13.8%         2.4%
passing       26.3%         4.3%
rushing       -0.3%        -0.3%

The Browns continue to chug along with their 7th-place offensive DVOA ranking. The passing game ranks 7th and the rushing game has risen to 11th. Derek Anderson still ranks 3rd in passing DPAR (78.7); meanwhile his rank in passing DVOA has risen to 3rd as well (37.2%). Kellen Winslow now leads the team in both receiving DPAR (21.3, 3rd among TEs) and DVOA (21.8%, 11th). After him, Braylon Edwards has the most DPAR (18.1, 13th among WRs), but it's actually Joe Jurevicius with the higher receiving DVOA (19.4%, 15th among WRs). And, best for last: the offensive line has risen to 6th in Adjusted Line Yards (4.45) and 5th in Adjusted Sack Rate, allowing a sack on only 4.2% of passing plays.

So what kind of test will they face this weekend in Arizona? The Cardinals are about average on defense, ranking 17th overall. Their passing defense is weak against #1 receivers (26.5% DVOA, to rank 28th) and #2 receivers (12.0%, to rank 20th), but relatively strong against all other types of receivers. They will be without their best defensive player, however, as safety Adrian Wilson, longtime Football Outsiders favorite, was put on injured reserve this week. That should soften up the middle of the Cardinals' pass defense considerably. On the ground, they rank 8th in Adjusted Line Yards Against (3.91), but have been noticeably weak when their opponents run off tackle to the right (4.97, to rank 28th). The Browns don't run in that direction very often, so it will be interesting to see what kind of rushes Chudzinski calls. Advantage: Browns

Cardinals offense vs. Browns defense:

           ARI offense  CLE defense
total DVOA    -1.6%        15.4%
passing        5.9%        28.5%
rushing      -11.7%        -1.1%

Last week, the Browns defense played its best game of the season so far, though I felt the end results were better than they should have been. DVOA seems to agree, as the Browns' defensive DVOA stays about the same, and they actually drop in the rankings, to 30th (which has a lot more to do with the Saints than the Browns, but I digress).

Arizona ranks 19th in offensive DVOA, and has been more successful passing (17th) than rushing (23rd). The biggest receiving threat is Larry Fitzgerald, whose high-volume production ranks him 15th in receiving DPAR among WRs (17.8), though his receiving DVOA of 6.1% ranks only 39th. Tight ends Leonard Pope and Jerheme Urban lead the Cardinals in receiving DVOA (18.9% and 11.4%), which could be a problem (the Browns rank 22nd in defending TEs with a 23.3% DVOA). Advantage: Cardinals

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns   Cardinals
total DVOA                7.9%     -3.4%
FG kicking               -0.4      -4.4
CLE kickoff vs. ARI KR    3.2      -3.2
CLE KR vs. ARI kickoff   28.6       3.9
CLE punt vs. ARI PR      -2.0       6.1
CLE PR vs. ARI punt       2.3     -16.1

Despite a quiet game versus the Texans, the Browns' kickoff return team still rates as the best single special teams unit of the past 12 years. Arizona ranks 8th in kicking off, and has the best such rating of any team left on the Browns' schedule; however, before you go sticking your head in the oven, know that their kickoff team is all about Neil Rackers and his kicking distance. Rackers has one of the best touchback percentages in football, but on those occasions when guys actually get to return the kick, the Cardinals are no great shakes. This means the Browns, as a team, may get fewer kickoff return opportunities, but it means Josh Cribbs may actually get more, as the Cardinals certainly won't be trying to kick away from him.

In other news, the Cards are 8th in returning punts, and 31st in punting. The Browns are about average in both those categories, but don't be surprised to see either team break off a long punt return or two. Advantage: Browns

Overall, the 13th-ranked Browns (6.2% DVOA) are a better team than the 18th-ranked Cardinals (-7.4%), but this game isn't going to be a walk in the cake. Go Browns!