I Summon the Ghost of Francisco Cabrera!
by Corey
Heading into Game 7, the prevailing feeling will undoubtedly be that the Red Sox have the momentum and are therefore likely to win the game. Myself, I can't help feeling down about the Indians' loss in Game 6, but I wanted to know whether this piece of conventional wisdom about "momentum" has a basis in history. (Spoiler alert: it does.)
After the Game 4 victory, we all saw the graphic: 65 teams have taken 3-1 leads in best-of-seven series; 55 of them have gone on to win. Of course, a lot of them (most, in fact) went on to win 4-1 or 4-2. I'm more interested in knowing what happens when a team, down 3-1, forces a Game 7 (thus implying a huge momentum swing).
Some quick research reveals 14 such instances—not a lot to go on, I realize. Still, 10 out of 14 times, the team with the momentum went on to win the series. Only 4 teams out of 14 have managed to "plug the dam", so to speak, and win Game 7 after blowing a 3-1 series lead. They are:
That said, there have been 47 game 7s in baseball postseason history. In those games, the team that forced Game 7 (that is, the team that won Game 6) was victorious only 26 times. That leaves 21 times that the team who blew their shot in Game 6 made up for it in Game 7. As an Indians fan, a 21-in-47 chance sounds pretty nice, right about now.
So what is my point? Nothing, really. In a very small sample of 14 "momentum swinging" series, the team with the momentum usually went on to win. Now, is this trend going to make Jake Westbrook pitch worse than he would otherwise? Is it going to make the Red Sox "try harder"? I don't believe so. But it certainly doesn't look good for the Indians.
After the Game 4 victory, we all saw the graphic: 65 teams have taken 3-1 leads in best-of-seven series; 55 of them have gone on to win. Of course, a lot of them (most, in fact) went on to win 4-1 or 4-2. I'm more interested in knowing what happens when a team, down 3-1, forces a Game 7 (thus implying a huge momentum swing).
Some quick research reveals 14 such instances—not a lot to go on, I realize. Still, 10 out of 14 times, the team with the momentum went on to win the series. Only 4 teams out of 14 have managed to "plug the dam", so to speak, and win Game 7 after blowing a 3-1 series lead. They are:
- 1992 Atlanta Braves—let Pittsburgh get back into the NLCS, only to seal the deal in Game 7, thanks to Francisco Cabrera's game-winning single in the bottom of the 9th.
- 1972 Oakland A's—held off the Reds to win the World Series.
- 1967 St. Louis Cardinals—withstood a Red Sox rally to win the World Series.
- 1912 Boston Red Sox—won the World Series in 8 games (Game 2 ended in a tie) despite a late surge by the New York Giants.
That said, there have been 47 game 7s in baseball postseason history. In those games, the team that forced Game 7 (that is, the team that won Game 6) was victorious only 26 times. That leaves 21 times that the team who blew their shot in Game 6 made up for it in Game 7. As an Indians fan, a 21-in-47 chance sounds pretty nice, right about now.
So what is my point? Nothing, really. In a very small sample of 14 "momentum swinging" series, the team with the momentum usually went on to win. Now, is this trend going to make Jake Westbrook pitch worse than he would otherwise? Is it going to make the Red Sox "try harder"? I don't believe so. But it certainly doesn't look good for the Indians.
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