Browns vs. Steelers Preview
by Corey
Booyashaka! It's time for Browns football, and the first of my weekly Browns previews. As I have done for two years now, the Friday before each Browns game, I'll be bringing you a statistical comparison of the Browns and their opponents-to-be, mostly using stats created by the smart people at Football Outsiders.
Before we get to the meat of the matter, allow me to say a word about DVOA ("defense-adjusted value over average"). DVOA is the metric on which most of my analysis will be based. It is expressed as a percentage. For offenses, a DVOA of 10.0%, say, means 10% better than league average. For defenses, a DVOA of 10.0% means 10% worse than average. DVOA can be used in reference to entire teams, individual units (like offense, defense, rushing offense, passing defense, etc.), or individual players (that is, passers, rushers and receivers).
Now, I can understand, especially if you're new around here, that you might be looking for a better explanation of DVOA than that. I will refer you to Football Outsiders' own "Methods to Our Madness", and also to my Browns preview from Week 1 of last season, in which I wrote a lengthy introduction answering the questions "Why do I choose DVOA?" and "Am I a nerd?". (Pay no attention to the actual preview itself, in which DVOA predicts the 2006 Saints to be bad. That would, uh, probably hurt my credibility, if you were to read that...)
Okay, let's get to the preview. As the season progresses, I will be able to cite more actual statistics, but for now, since no games have been played, we're going to have to rely on Football Outsiders' DVOA Projections, which do a reasonable job of predicting how teams will perform (seriously, 2006 Saints notwithstanding, the DVOA projections consistently do a better forecasting job than any other statistical model or individual expert, be he media analyst or gambling guru). Just bear in mind that in future weeks, there will be many more statistics in these previews, and the information will be more reliable.
The Steelers are projected to have the NFL's 2nd-best defense in 2007. Last year, they ranked 10th, with a DVOA of -6.6. It's worth noting that the Steelers' pass defense has ranked lower, by DVOA, than their run defense in each of the last four seasons. You've heard me say it before, but, given the fact that the Browns' idea of rushing the ball is to crowd 11 people into a mass at the line of scrimmage and "power" their way to a 1-yard gain, there is something to be said for cutting bait on the run game, and trying to pick apart Pittsburgh's sometimes-suspect secondary, especially the weak CB Ike Taylor (whom the Browns, like many an NFL team, have victimized in recent seasons). With a new offensive coordinator, we really don't know what we're getting, but if Rob Chudzinski's philosophy of offense is anything remotely similar to the stubborn conservatism of anyone who's called a Browns play during the Crennel era so far, we're in for another long season. Advantage: Steelers
The Steelers offense is predicted to rank 19th in DVOA, which would be a step down from last year, when they ranked 11th and put up a DVOA of 5.4%. From what I hear, there are grumblings in Pittsburgh about how the new head coach is going to change the offensive philosophy, getting away from what is believed to be the Steelers' bread and butter: power running. The reality, though, is that in recent seasons, when the Steelers offense has been effective, it's been an efficient passing game that's done the trick. Cleveland fans will surely remember Willie Parker running all over the Browns last season, but the much more important concern, if you ask me, is which Ben Roethlisberger will we see this weekend? Either way, if the Browns are to pull out a win in Week 1, it's more than likely going to come on the shoulders of the defense. Slight advantage: Browns
Overall, the Steelers are still the better team. Even after such an encouraging offseason, the Browns' progress out of the cellar, if it is to come, is going to come gradually. That said, this Sunday's matchup is far from lopsided. The Browns can make up some of the ground they'll lose on offense by playing good defense and special teams. Let's hope for an exciting game. Enjoy it, Browns fans!
Before we get to the meat of the matter, allow me to say a word about DVOA ("defense-adjusted value over average"). DVOA is the metric on which most of my analysis will be based. It is expressed as a percentage. For offenses, a DVOA of 10.0%, say, means 10% better than league average. For defenses, a DVOA of 10.0% means 10% worse than average. DVOA can be used in reference to entire teams, individual units (like offense, defense, rushing offense, passing defense, etc.), or individual players (that is, passers, rushers and receivers).
Now, I can understand, especially if you're new around here, that you might be looking for a better explanation of DVOA than that. I will refer you to Football Outsiders' own "Methods to Our Madness", and also to my Browns preview from Week 1 of last season, in which I wrote a lengthy introduction answering the questions "Why do I choose DVOA?" and "Am I a nerd?". (Pay no attention to the actual preview itself, in which DVOA predicts the 2006 Saints to be bad. That would, uh, probably hurt my credibility, if you were to read that...)
Okay, let's get to the preview. As the season progresses, I will be able to cite more actual statistics, but for now, since no games have been played, we're going to have to rely on Football Outsiders' DVOA Projections, which do a reasonable job of predicting how teams will perform (seriously, 2006 Saints notwithstanding, the DVOA projections consistently do a better forecasting job than any other statistical model or individual expert, be he media analyst or gambling guru). Just bear in mind that in future weeks, there will be many more statistics in these previews, and the information will be more reliable.
Browns offense vs. Steelers defense:
CLE offense PIT defenseFootball Outsiders pegs the 2007 Browns for the league's 27th-best offense. That's still bad, but it would actually represent a significant improvement over 2006, when the Browns ranked 31st in the NFL with an offensive DVOA of -18.2%. Charlie Frye is not a good quarterback by any stretch (-22.5 DVOA in 2006), and Jamal Lewis is quite possibly even worse than Reuben Droughns, who was himself quite horrible last year (-20.1%). But the offensive line stands to be much better than 2006, and that alone will result in some improvement. Of course, it may take a few games for that improvement to manifest. Eric Steinbach's status for Sunday is still uncertain, and Joe Thomas will get his first real look at an NFL defense this weekend. It's important for us to keep that in mind, because...
projected DVOA -10.7% -14.9%
The Steelers are projected to have the NFL's 2nd-best defense in 2007. Last year, they ranked 10th, with a DVOA of -6.6. It's worth noting that the Steelers' pass defense has ranked lower, by DVOA, than their run defense in each of the last four seasons. You've heard me say it before, but, given the fact that the Browns' idea of rushing the ball is to crowd 11 people into a mass at the line of scrimmage and "power" their way to a 1-yard gain, there is something to be said for cutting bait on the run game, and trying to pick apart Pittsburgh's sometimes-suspect secondary, especially the weak CB Ike Taylor (whom the Browns, like many an NFL team, have victimized in recent seasons). With a new offensive coordinator, we really don't know what we're getting, but if Rob Chudzinski's philosophy of offense is anything remotely similar to the stubborn conservatism of anyone who's called a Browns play during the Crennel era so far, we're in for another long season. Advantage: Steelers
Steelers offense vs. Browns defense:
PIT offense CLE defenseFootball Outsiders forecasts the Browns defense to be about league average (ranking 17th). Last season, they ranked 21st (5.0% DVOA), with a 15th-ranked pass defense and a 25th-ranked run defense. In fact, the Browns pass defense has ranked significantly (in some cases, ridiculously) better than their run defense in every single season of the DVOA era. Let's hope that trend continues, especially with the good news that the team's best player will be allowed to play Sunday, despite his recent persecution by the police.
projected DVOA -3.5% -0.4%
The Steelers offense is predicted to rank 19th in DVOA, which would be a step down from last year, when they ranked 11th and put up a DVOA of 5.4%. From what I hear, there are grumblings in Pittsburgh about how the new head coach is going to change the offensive philosophy, getting away from what is believed to be the Steelers' bread and butter: power running. The reality, though, is that in recent seasons, when the Steelers offense has been effective, it's been an efficient passing game that's done the trick. Cleveland fans will surely remember Willie Parker running all over the Browns last season, but the much more important concern, if you ask me, is which Ben Roethlisberger will we see this weekend? Either way, if the Browns are to pull out a win in Week 1, it's more than likely going to come on the shoulders of the defense. Slight advantage: Browns
Special teams matchups:
CLE s.t. PIT s.t.The range of values among Football Outsiders' projected special teams DVOAs is rather small, probably because special teams are less consistent from year to year. Still, the Browns are forecasted to have the NFL's 10th-best special teams, which is about what they had last year. The Browns have long had strong special teams, but have a new special teams coordinator this year, so time will tell. For what it's worth, their strengths last year were kickoff returns, punt returns, and punting, while their most glaring weakness was definitely field goal kicking. The Steelers have long had horrible special teams (though many believe that will be remedied in 2007 with the addition of kick returner Allen Rossum). They are projected to rank 26th in the NFL this season, according to DVOA. Advantage: Browns
projected DVOA 0.6% -1.2%
Overall, the Steelers are still the better team. Even after such an encouraging offseason, the Browns' progress out of the cellar, if it is to come, is going to come gradually. That said, this Sunday's matchup is far from lopsided. The Browns can make up some of the ground they'll lose on offense by playing good defense and special teams. Let's hope for an exciting game. Enjoy it, Browns fans!
6 Comments:
Over/under on Romeo's tenure is now at November 1, 2007. Any takers on the over?
the browns looked as though they left the field at the end of last season and never practiced the whole off-season before playing the steelers yesterday. pathetic.
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