Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times

for the Cleveland sports fan

Friday, September 14, 2007

Browns vs. Bengals Preview

by Corey

I know what you're thinking: is it still football season?! But believe it or not, the Browns still have a number of games left to play. With that in mind, let's get right to the preview.

As always, the stats from this preview come from Football Outsiders' weekly DVOA ratings. Because it's still too early in the season to calculate true DVOA, I'm going to provide you with three different alternatives: (1) the pre-season DVOA projections (same as I gave you last week), (2) DAVE ("DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early"), which combines the pre-season projection with actual performance data (the weights change as more actual games are played), and (3) the raw, unadjusted VOA (not DVOA) from Week 1. Regarding this last number, while it may tell you something about how the Browns (or Bengals) played in Week 1, it is virtually worthless for predicting future performance, so take it with a boulder of salt.

For a detailed explanation of how DVOA works, click here.

Browns offense vs. Bengals defense:

                    CLE offense  CIN defense
2007 projected DVOA -10.7% 10.0%
DAVE after Week 1 -16.6% 4.2%
Week 1 actual VOA -69.6% -48.2%
It won't surprise you to learn that the Browns offense had the worst Week 1 performance of any NFL team. Thus, according to DAVE, the Browns have about the 30th-best offense in the league. Of course, the worst of the Opening Day onslaught occurred while Charlie Frye was under center. With him gone, I think it's reasonable for us to expect a more efficient offensive attack in Week 2.

Football Outsiders forecasted the Bengals to have a lousy defense in 2007 (27th by projected DVOA), but the Cincinnati D enjoyed a monster game against Baltimore in Week 1. For now, I remain skeptical—in 2006, the Bengals ranked 25th in defensive DVOA, thanks to a 28th-ranked pass defense. The Browns are going to have to take to the air if they want to score points. Of course, I could say that every week. What am I talking about? I do say that every week. It never seems to help... Advantage: Bengals

Bengals offense vs. Browns defense:

                    CIN offense  CLE defense
2007 projected DVOA 6.9% -0.4%
DAVE after Week 1 5.0% 1.2%
Week 1 actual VOA -11.4% 14.9%
It's my favorite matchup of the season—get ready for Bodden-Johnson IV! So far, the Browns' best player has been tasked with covering Ochenta y Cinco on three occasions (dating back to 2005), and, as we all remember, Leigh gobbled up his rival like so much delicious, delicious popcorn. Usually, the Browns deploy their starting corners on a strict left-right basis, but against the Bengals last year, they moved Bodden around so he could remain on Chad Johnson duty. Needless to say, I'll be watching this one with interest.

After a less-than-inspiring performance against Pittsburgh in Week 1, the Browns defense ranks 18th in the league, by DAVE. It's hard to know what to expect—in 2006, the pass defense was clearly the team's strength, while the run defense was weak, but against the Steelers last Sunday, the reverse was true. Pittsburgh successfully concentrated its passing attack on rookie CB Eric Wright, and frankly, if I were the Bengals, I'd try to do the same thing. The Bengals, as you know, have a very efficient offense, led by a passing attack that ranked 2nd in DVOA last year. So if the pressure is on anyone this week, it's definitely Eric Wright. Advantage: Bengals

Special teams matchups:

                    CLE s.t.  CIN s.t.
2007 projected DVOA 0.6% -0.4%
DAVE after Week 1 0.1% -3.7%
Week 1 actual VOA -4.6% -33.7%
The Browns special teams had an off game last week, but I think we can expect them to bounce back, especially if Dave Zastudil is healthy enough to play (his status is still uncertain). The Bengals special teams ranked 12th by DVOA last season, but were projected to rank just 24th heading into 2007, and were a complete disaster against Baltimore on Monday night. Advantage: Browns

People tend to read too much into Week 1 results, so if we can take anything positive away from last week's fiasco, it's that, for now, the Browns are likely to be slightly underrated. That said, they're still not even close to matching up favorably with the Bengals, so don't get your hopes up. Enjoy the game—that is, what moments of it happen to take place in between innings of the Indians game—and try not to get too depressed!

Posted at 1:00 PM

8 Comments:

Blogger Kevin said…
You heard it here first: The Browns will outscore the Royals this weekend.
Posted at September 14, 2007 4:25 PM  
Blogger Scott said…
You know things are bad when you are really hoping your punter is able to return from an injury...
Posted at September 14, 2007 4:51 PM  
Blogger TheNaturalMevs said…
Go Brownies
Posted at September 14, 2007 7:32 PM  
Anonymous snarl said…
Dear fellas,

Down here in TN, and curiously, still enamored with my Browns. It's kinda like self-immolation, without actually dying.

You can live a long time this way, just ask any old skool tribe fan.
Posted at September 14, 2007 9:13 PM  
Blogger Jim said…
BRAYYYYY-D, BRAYYYYY-D, BRAYYYYY-D, BRAYYYYY-D, BRAYYYYY-D, BRAYYYYY-D, BRAYYYYY-D, BRAYYYYY-D, BRAYYYYY-D,

...sigh.
Posted at September 16, 2007 12:00 PM  
Anonymous snarl said…
If I pay around $200 to get NFL on satellite, should I...

A. Watch Browns games live
B. DVR Browns games and watch them later
C. DVR Browns games and delete them without watching
D. DVR Browns games and provide the tapes to the Patriots so they have a chance next time they play the Browns.

or.....

E. Don't watch, don't DVR, just get a nite pizza job to pay for the service.....again!

What say ye?
Posted at September 16, 2007 12:13 PM  
Blogger Corey said…
Snarl,

F. Ditch the satellite and go watch the Browns games live with local Browns Backers chapter. Buy your fellow Browns fans a round of drinks with the money you'll save. Trust me, you'll enjoy yourself even when the Browns lose.
Posted at September 16, 2007 12:28 PM  
Blogger John-David Filing said…
I just want a moral victory. I think it's coming.
Posted at September 16, 2007 3:01 PM  

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