And here we are again. The Cavaliers cap another nominally-successful regular season with an opening date with the Washington Wizards. Using season-long statistics, I've broken down this series by way of the Four Factors and then by each team's starting lineup, since in the playoffs, what with your elongated TV-timeouts and nothing to lose, the starters take a larger share of the minutes.

These are not the same Wizards you may remember from last season. With Gilbert Arenas definitely out and Caron Butler probably gone for the series, they will seriously suffer. Hence, the season-long statistics I use in this analysis are less meaningful for the Wizards than normal. When two players that combined for 27% of a team's minutes over the entire season are absent, that team's dynamic completely changes. So, take the Wizards' numbers with a grain of salt. If anything, they ought to be much worse.

Cavaliers offense vs. Wizards defense

• Shooting – The Cavaliers weren't too efficient from the field this season (22nd in the NBA, .484 eFG). They actually have the worst eFG of any playoff team. But never fear, Cleveland fans. The Wizards were the third-worst team in the league in eFG allowed (.517). The Cavs didn't need efficient shooting to win this season, so Washington's suckage is icing on the cake. They'll shoot a higher percentage from the field than normal, and that's good.
• Turnovers – The Cavs ain't half bad when it comes to holding onto the ball—especially LeBron James, surprisingly. They committed 15.8 turnovers per 100 possessions, good enough for ninth in the league. The Wizards defense has lost some of their luster from last season. Their quick hands have turned decidedly average, as the team ranks only twelfth (16.9% TO-r). Don't expect too many fastbreak points for Washington.
• Offensive rebounding – Welcome to the Cavaliers' wheelhouse. They finished up the year third in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage (29.7)—led by, who else, but Drew Gooden. And as good as the Cavs are at getting second shots, the Wizards are just as happy to allow them. They finished sixth-worst in OReb% allowed (29.0). The Cavs ought to beat the stuffing out of Washington on the boards.
• Getting to the foul line – Not exactly the Cavaliers' strong suit according to the numbers (24th in the NBA, .223 FT/FGA), but when you think about it, they really should be good at this. When He's hot, LeBron James drives the lane at will and, in a previous life, Larry Hughes got to the line a lot. The three-headed rebounding monster of Ilgauskas, Gooden, and Varejão should draw plenty of fouls on put-backs, too. Oh well, c'est la vie. Washington wasn't anything special at keeping their opponents from the foul line (18th, .249). I'd expect business-as-usual here.

The Cavaliers hang their hat on defense, but they aren't one-dimensional. The offense has slipped since last year, finishing eighteenth in offensive efficiency at 105.5 points per 100 possessions. Fortunately though, the Wizards have one of the worst defenses in the league, third-worst in fact (110.9). With individual defensive statistics being what they are, I don't have a good idea who the culprits are or how the aforementioned injuries will affect Washington here—although DeShawn Stevenson looks particularly heinous (114 D-Rating). But the Wizards started off so far into the hole that an improved defense could probably only nudge them to league-average. Which, frankly, isn't enough.

Cavaliers defense vs. Wizards offense

• Shooting – The Cavs have done a pretty good job at keeping their opponents from shooting a low percentage from the field (eigth in the NBA, .480 eFG). This will be enhanced, as the Wizards' offense is in the bottom half in eFG (18th, .491).
• Turnovers – The Cavaliers' defense stands at ninth in the league at generating turnovers, at 17.0 per 100 possessions. That's not too bad, except that seventeen teams are all clumped together between 16.4 and 17.4 turnovers per game. That means that if the Cavs had been a little luckier and the refs called a few extra travels on the opponents or the other team accidentally kicked the ball out of bounds just 50 more times on the season, they'd be sitting at third in the league in forced turnovers, instead of ninth. However, if those calls went the wrong way or Mike Brown let Varejão run the offense, they'd be at 19th in the league. All of this pretty moot, however, since the Wizards are second in the league at avoiding turnovers on offense (14.7).
• Offensive rebounding – Just like on offense, the Cavs are dominating on the boards. Their defense finished the year second at limiting second-chance shots (23.0 OReb%). But while the Wizards don't put up much of an effort on the defensive glass, they at least seem to try on the offensive side (13th, 28.1). Suggesting that perhaps it isn't a lack of talent or a poor game-plan holding them back on defense, it's just a lack of effort. Just like I said before, the Cavaliers ought to beat the stuffing out of the Wizards here.
• Getting to the foul line – The Cavs' defensive strongsuits are making the other team take bad shots and keeping them off the offensive boards, not keeping them off the foul line. They finished the season fourteenth in free throws allowed per field goal attempts allowed, at .243. Particularly foul-happy are Varejão (5.6 personal fouls per 40 minutes), Ira Newble (5.2), and Ilgauskas (4.8). The Wizards get to the free-throw line pretty often too (sixth, .272)—although that was mostly Gilbert Arenas. Watch out for Antonio Daniels, who'll be filling in for Arenas, though. If he had enough minutes to qualify, he would have been third in the NBA in FTM/FGA at .535.

The Cavaliers are a defense-first team, owning the fourth-best defense in the league at 101.3 points per 100 possessions allowed, and the Wizards are an offense-first team with the fourth-best offense at 109.8 points per 100 possessions. And old adage comes to mind: a good defense beats a good offense. But I'm not sure whether history actually proves that true. For now though, let's call it a tie. With Washington's defense being what it is not to mention losing their first- and third-best players, the Cavaliers should win this series handily.

Starting lineups

• Point guard – Larry Hughes is an unconventional choice for point guard, but I don't need to flesh out the arguments about him here. I'm sure we've heard them all before. O.K., I just want to throw this one tidbit in: the 2006-2007 season was the worst of Hughes's career. Anyway, Gilbert Arenas was one of the best starting point guards in the NBA, but he's injured now, so who cares? In his place will be Antonio Daniels, who is pretty freakin' good for a backup. He's an efficient scorer and great passer and not a good matchup for Hughes.
• Shooting guard – DeShawn Stevenson blossomed this year, turning from something of a low-efficiency chucker to a valuable offensive player. He's still garbage on defense, though. Sasha Pavlovic had a blossoming of his own. He's a good shooter and can drive to the basket, but he really needs to cut down on turnovers. I don't know if Sasha's defensive numbers are merely a product of Mike Brown's system or not, but I'll still give the Cavs the nod here since Pavlovic isn't nearly as one-dimensional as Stevenson.
• Small forward – Jarvis Hayes could be the second coming and it wouldn't matter because LeBron James is the first coming.
• Power forward – Antawn Jamison is the best player the Wizards have left. He's a good outside shooter and rebounder, an uncommon combination. He's not much of a defender, though. As for the Cavaliers, I'm going to bite the bullet and admit that Drew Gooden and Anderson Varejão are probably going to share minutes in the playoffs. Both are great rebounders, although Gooden is better. Anderson plays hard on defense while Drew plays hard on offense. Platooned correctly, this two-headed monster will overwhelm Jamison. Platooned incorrectly, we'll see an exhausted Anderson Varejão out there for the entire fourth quarter.
• Center – Since these teams met last playoffs, Washington has swapped out Brendan Haywood for Etan Thomas as starting center, but it really doesn't matter. Both are lumbering, mediocre big men who get rebounds and shoot a high percentage. Zydrunas Ilgauskas is better than them. If the Cavaliers deem it important enough to feed him the ball, they'll have a real advantage. As we know, however, this isn't necessary for victory (see: last year's series).

My rose-colored analysis of the starting lineups posits Cleveland to be superior at almost every position. Even if that's not 100% true, the Cavaliers still have the better starters thanks to LeBron over Hayes and Ilgauskas over Thomas.

It's pretty easy to see that the Cavaliers are the better team. Without Arenas or Butler, the Wizards are left almost toothless and without depth. The Cavs' control of the boards might be enough to win the series by itself before even mentioning Washington's awful defense. Almost every "expert" on the web is predicting a Cavaliers victory in four or five games. That sounds about right to me. Come on, Cavs!