Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times

for the Cleveland sports fan

Sunday, January 28, 2007

A Very Special Edition of "Hey, Hoynsie!"

by Alex

Just for you, Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times-enthusiasts.
Q: Hey, Hoynsie: Why does everyone give shortstop Jhonny Peralta a hard time about range? He has the highest range factor among all regular American League shortstops. He had better range and more total chances in 2006 (versus 2005). He's a young player and getting better. Baseball Prospectus has him highly rated defensively — better than Omar Vizquel. I suspect that if the Indians win in 2007 and/or Peralta hits like he did in 2005, his “range” problem will disappear. — Joe Towarnicky, Columbus.
God bless you, Joe Towarnicky of Columbus.
A: Hey, Joe: The criticism directed toward Peralta isn't coming from just the media, but the Indians. They're the ones who broke down every ball hit to him last year and determined he had the worst range of any shortstop in the big leagues. It helps sometimes to get your nose out of Baseball Prospectus, ignore range factor calculations and just watch a guy play. That being said, I agree that if Peralta hits like he did in 2005, range will no longer be a problem.
You hear that, baseball nerds? You should just watch a guy play. Your "statistics" are meaningless in the face of actual eyewitness testimony and revealing anecdotes!

Be that as it may, if the Indians front office judged Jhonny a poor fielder, I'm inclined to believe them, regardless of my previous defenses. Those guys know what they're doing.

Posted at 10:05 PM

7 Comments:

Blogger Corey said…
Brohaim,

Just so we're clear, you're not conceding that the Indians believe Peralta to be a bad fielder just because Paul Hoynes said it, are you?

Even if it were true, I'd want to consider it only in conjunction with what BP's (and others') stats had to say.
Posted at 12:30 AM, January 29, 2007  
Blogger Alex said…
My dearest brother,

Of course I'm not conceding that the Indians front office could be swayed by Paul Hoynes. My changing opinion is influenced by another Hoynes article, where he relays that the Indians reviewed every ball hit to Jhonny in 2006 and rated his range as the worst among major league shortstops, and the Baseball Prospectus Player Profile of Jhonny by Marc Normandin.
Posted at 12:40 AM, January 29, 2007  
Anonymous Matthew R said…
Hoynes does kind of have a point here. Nobody outside of BPro's offices really knows how their defensive numbers are computed. I don't have URLs to back it up, but I've seen 2 or 3 different defensive ratings for last season and none of them can agree on where to put Peralta, but BPro seems to consistently have him better than everybody else.

And I'm a big Jhonny Peralta fan, I want to make that clear. I think he's better than most people give him credit for, but I also think that if he works really really hard and concentrates on every pitch and really busts his butt, then his upside is to be an average defensive major league shortstop. Average, not above average.

My own completely amateurish and uninformed scouting report on Peralta's defense is -- accurate but not particularly strong arm, has trouble going to his right, loses focus from pitch to pitch. Do you guys disagree with that? Does your opinion of him change b/c BPro puts +10 or whatever next to him in their book?

(Again, I'm not a Peralta hater; in fact I started following him pretty closely in 2002 and actually spoke with him in spring training in '03; he seemed shocked that anybody actually knew who he was.)
Posted at 12:22 PM, January 29, 2007  
Blogger Nick Allburn said…
If Baseball Prospectus has Peralta rated ahead of Vizquel defensively, then they need to drastically re-think their ranking system. And I'm not anti-Peralta. I think part of fans' negative attitude towards his defense stems from being spoiled with Omar at short for 10 years. That's a tough act to follow.

If Peralta works at it he can become a solid if unspectacular defensive shortstop, and there's nothing to say that he can't improve his quickness and range with plyometrics or whatever training methods they use nowadays. People are quick to forget that he has a very good arm, which at times can make up for his lack of range. But fans need to realize that he isn't and will never be Omar Vizquel.
Posted at 4:33 PM, January 29, 2007  
Blogger Corey said…
I don't believe Peralta today is as good a defender as Vizquel was in his prime, but I do think Peralta today is as good a defender as Vizquel today, and not just because BP's metrics suggest as much. I think Vizquel's defense, while solid, was always overrated, and continues to be (for what it's worth).

The most important thing to consider is the rate at which a player converts balls in play into outs. The least important thing to consider, as far as I'm concerned, is the way a player "looks" while doing it. Fielding statistics are far from perfect but at least they're objective.

I'm already sick of this topic!
Posted at 5:07 PM, January 29, 2007  
Blogger Scott said…
You guys glossed over the best part of his response. when he says that if his hitting is better than his range problem will disappear, he pretty much acknowledges that much of Peralta's criticism was that he wasn't living up to '05 at the plate.

But i guess the improved confidence from hitting well will give him added range during the other half of the inning; that's probably it.
Posted at 12:46 AM, January 30, 2007  
Anonymous Tony H said…
I've learned to never underestimate Jhonny Peralta. I for one think he will have a fine rebound season this year. He's 24 years old, for crying out loud.

That being said, I think the regression of '06 was to be expected considering his BABIP in '05 was .349 and he had an unusually high slugging percentage given his minor league track record. I think his true talent level is probably somewhere in between '05 and '06.

Also, it's not just the Indians that have him as a bad shortstop. It ain't hard to find reputable statistical evidence of him being a poor fielder. The Fielding Bible has had him as a terrible fielder two years in a row and UZR has had him below average the last two seasons. For what it's worth, Tango's fan ratings have him pretty bad too, IIRC. I really don't have much confidence in Baseball Prospectus' defensive statistics.

Definitely agree with the overall tone of this post, though. That line about getting your nose out of BP and just watching a game is quite obnoxious.
Posted at 4:23 PM, January 31, 2007  

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