The day you've been awaiting for twelve months has finally arrived. That's right, it's another LeBron Day jamboree! This year, our Lord and Savior turned 22 and, as you are about to see, we honored him in style.

Briefly, for those of you unfamiliar with this time-honored tradition, LeBron Day is the holiest day of the year. Each year, my brother and I and a small group of friends embark on a pilgrimage to many of the important sites of LeBron's life. This ancient tradition began in 2004, exploded to a new level in 2005, and went completely off the chains in 2006! Here's a recap.



Joining us this year were Friends of the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times, Aaron, Karen, Brad, Mike, and the other Mike. The day began--as any good LeBron Day should--with a grocery run. We needed to stock up on certain essential LeBron-endorsed products. Having experienced 2004's First LeBron Day Miracle and 2005's Second LeBron Day Miracle at the very same Acme Supermarket, we didn't quite know what to expect this time around.



Praise LeBron! A new and exciting color of Powerade! We decided to load up on a few cases of this mysterious purple newcomer (along with the prerequisite Sprite and Fruity Pebbles):



For the third consecutive year, the cashier was not amused. Now, fully stocked and rarin' to go, we knew we were ready for anything.



We decided to begin our journey in earnest where LeBron's journey may or may not have begun (you don't know!)--downtown Akron's one and only ginormous hospital.



We were truly moved. To think--LeBron might maybe have possibly been born here. At any rate, we pressed on. This time to Portage Path Elementary.



Climbing on LeBron's boyhood jungle gym was most exhilarating:



Continuing along young LeBron's scholarly trajectory, we next visited historic Riedinger Middle School on Akron's south side.



This sacred building was the site of a seminal happening, The Chosen One's first public dunk. Even today, the ground trembles from the shockwaves.

Moving on, it was time to visit the hallowed halls of St. Vincent-St. Mary High School. LeBron will certainly ne'er forget the happy hours he spent within her walls.



In yet another LeBron Day Miracle, the gate to SVSM's football field was unlocked! We decided to take a quick roll in the FieldTurf. But first, a prayer to LeBron at mid-field:



Alex was a witness:



Being on the very field where LeBron wowed the City of Akron with highlight-reel touchdowns and basketballesque football-type plays was an experience that filled us with an overpowering jubilation:



As has become customary, we stopped for a photo-op in front of Akron's majestic skyline.





Then Alex poured Sprite on my head.



If you remember, last year when we attempted to glimpse upon LeBron's mansion in Bath, Ohio, we were shocked to discover it has been razed to the ground. We are pleased to report however, that in the twelve months thence the construction of a new royal palace has begun. Good samaritans that we are, we decided to check on its progress:



Alas, before we could say "wham with the right hand," it was time to make the last stop on the pilgrimage portion of our LeBron Day célébration. Akron may be our Mecca, but the Building Formerly Known As Gund Arena will forever be our temple. We brought the pilgrimage to a close with the ceremonial Tossing of Fruity Pebbles to the Wind.





This one was for you, Felix Kraus.



The pilgrimage under our belts, it was time for some food!!! On a tip we've held in reserve for almost two years now, one of LeBron's favorite favorite restaurants is the hibachi-style steakhouse, Benihana. And this year, it was actually open!



The meal? Delicious. But our LeBron Day festivities? Only just begun. We retired to our dad's house for some LeBron-related fun 'n' games, not to mention the evening's Cavs game itself. At this juncture, Brad and Aaron had to leave us, but luckily Friends of the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times Scott and Katie were able to stop by and take their place.



We took turns reading from The Book of LeBron (to be posted on this 'blog at a later date). This holy text chronicles the life and times of our Lord and Savior.

Next, it was time to play LeBron Day Trivia Challenge! This was your standard LeBron-related trivia game.



Scott and Katie impressed all with their encyclopedic knowledge of the life of King James. Here they are, posing with their fabulous prize:



Not long after enjoying some scrumptious ice cream cake, it was time for the Cavs and Bulls to tip off. We marveled as images of LeBron himself appeared in our very living room--in high-definition!



Naturally, the game was full of exciting LeBron James highlights:



Alas, LeBron decided to let the Bulls win this one. Why, we may never know. It had been a day of highs and even higher highs, the heights of which know no bound. We had seen many wonderful sights, heard many wonderful sounds, tasted the many wonderful fruits of LeBron's noble work. Surely, LeBron Day 2006 was the greatest of all LeBron Days to date.



We hope your special day was as joyous as ours. See you in 2007!

Can you believe it's already the last game of the season?! Yeah, me too! Let's get this over with.

As always, the stats in this game preview come from Football Outsiders' DVOA reports for Week 17. For a detailed explanation of how DVOA works, click here.

Browns offense vs. Texans defense:

           CLE offense  HOU defense
total DVOA   -16.6%        17.1%
passing      -15.9%        26.3%
rushing      -17.6%         7.3%

Have I mentioned the Browns offense stinks? After teasing us with a few decent games, they're right back to their trusty old 30th-place ranking, by DVOA. The passing game has fallen to 26th while the running game remains 29th. A week ago, Derek Anderson was "on pace" to set a New Browns record for passing DPAR; now his season is over and he has finished well below replacement level. Ken Dorsey is, obviously, something of an unknown, though he did put up some pretty poor numbers last year (-7.7 DPAR, -33.1% DVOA) and the year before (-10.4 DPAR, -23.4% DVOA) in San Francisco.

But wait! The Texans defense stinks, too! In fact, Houston ranks dead last in defensive DVOA--31st against the pass and 26th against the run. And while, for some reason, they defend passes to #2 receivers well (-14.8% DVOA), they struggle against all other types of receivers, especially #1 receivers (14.3%, to rank 26th), but especially running backs (26.0%, to rank last in the NFL). Hopefully the Browns' running backs will be able to gain receiving yards the way they did a few weeks ago against Kansas City. Of course, the Texans' overall defensive DVOA may be the worst in the NFL over the whole season, but their weighted defensive DVOA of 10.4% only ranks them 26th, which, compared to the Browns offense's weighted DVOA of -16.6%, gives Houston a slight edge. All things considered, I'll say Advantage: Neither

Texans offense vs. Browns defense:

           HOU offense  CLE defense
total DVOA    -0.9%         5.8%
passing       -0.7%         5.0%
rushing       -1.0%         6.6%

The Browns' defensive DVOA took a hit this week, following an underwhelming performance against the offensively-retarded Buccaneers. They now rank 25th overall by DVOA--22nd against the pass (wasn't it just a few weeks ago they had a top 10 pass defense?!) and 25th against the run. To be fair, they did call up Therrian "Don't Forget" Fontenot and Team MVP Babatunde Oshinowo this week, so the numbers don't quite tell the whole story.

The Texans actually have a decent offense. They rank 17th by DVOA (15th by weighted DVOA), and are pretty balanced (15th passing, 13th rushing). David Carr's passing has been just below average (-6.7% DVOA), but he has racked up 13.2 passing DPAR. He's also been effective when he runs (5.6 rushing DPAR, 9.0% DVOA). WR Andre Johnson leads the team in receiving DPAR, with 18.4, though he too has been about average, on a per-play basis (2.5% DVOA). Number two receiver Eric Moulds (6.7% DVOA) and tight end Owen Daniels (20.9% DVOA) have actually been more effective, though they've been thrown to fewer times (75 and 51, to Johnson's 157). Slight advantage: Texans

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns    Texans
total DVOA                2.6%     -2.8%
FG kicking               -4.2      -0.8
CLE kickoff vs. HOU KR   -0.1      -6.1
CLE KR vs. HOU kickoff   10.0      -2.5
CLE punt vs. HOU PR       6.2       3.2
CLE PR vs. HOU punt       2.3      -8.9

The Browns' special teams have slipped yet again, this time to the rank of 8th (12th by weighted DVOA). The kick return team still ranks 3rd in the NFL, although the field goal kicking, once a strength, has dropped to an alarming 28th in the NFL. The Texans' special teams have also fallen off in recent weeks. They rank 22nd in overall DVOA but 30th in the NFL by weighted DVOA. Their strongest unit is the 5th-ranked punt return team, while their weakest unit is the 28th-ranked punt team. We may get to see some long punt returns this week--by either team. Advantage: Browns

So there you go. The Browns aren't favored to win--and they shouldn't be--but they're not far behind and could definitely win this game. Enjoy it, Browns fans--if you're even going to watch--it's the last one we'll get to see for a long time (unless the Browns make the playoffs, of course).

"It would be easy to fire Bud Carson all over again."

And so begins Bill Livingston's latest grouse about the Browns. So, Bill, please tell us why it would be easy to fire Carson again.

Carson was an aging, Super Bowl-winning defensive coordinator who flopped as a head coach with the Browns back when they won more often than the seasons change. Romeo Crennel has the same background and the same shortcomings. They are accentuated because the oft-dumbfounded Crennel comes off as bewildered in his news conferences.

Uh-huh, and...

Crennel made a fairly big deal of the quarter-and-a-half in which receiver Braylon Edwards sat on the bench, a result of the coach's decision, during Sunday's stinker against Tampa Bay.

Okay, but where's Bud Carson in all of this? I really want to know why it would easy to fire Carson all over again. Because it's so easy to fire Romeo Crennel today? That doesn't make sense--Crennel still has a job. Maybe it's because firing Carson the first time around was so difficult. Though after reaching the AFC Championship game in his first season in 1989, Art Modell canned Carson nine games into the next season. That seems pretty quick. I guess Carson didn't have much staying power.

Then why would it be so easy to fire him "all over again"? Fortunately for us, Livingston never mentions Carson again.

You may have heard some discussion this season about the Cavaliers' home court advantage. Through the current season's first 26 games (ie: prior to last night's contest in Atlanta), LeBron and company had amassed a home record of 12-3 and a road record of 3-8. That put their home winning percentage at .800 and their road winning percentage at .273, meaning they had a home/road winning percentage differential of .527--the second-highest such mark in the NBA this season (and the highest such mark in franchise history). For comparison, the league average differential for the '06-'07 season so far is .211.

Briefly, a word about home court advantage in the NBA. It has been true for some time that NBA teams win a higher percentage of their home games than MLB, NFL or NHL teams do. Frankly, I am at a loss to explain this one (especially considering the fact that outdoor sports are much more easily affected by things like weather, park dimensions, and so on), though some research has been done on the topic.

Another point I would like to make clear is that "home court advantage" is not necessarily an advantage at all. It could just as easily be referred to as "road court disadvantage". We often think of home court advantage as a good thing, but it does not in any way correlate to overall success. Simply put, home/road splits are neither "good" nor "bad" (though they may have an effect on things like team shop sales, attendance, etc.).

But back to the Cavs. Their unusually large home court advantage is not new for the 2007 season. In fact it goes back a number of years. The excellent hoops website Courtside Times published an article about this a few years ago, in which it was revealed that the Cavaliers had the league's second-highest home court advantage during the years 2001-2005 (behind only Denver).

Naturally, this got me to wondering why the Cavs, of all teams, would have such a wide discrepancy between their home and road records. Did the trend begin with the opening of Gund Arena? Did it always exist?

So I crunched some numbers (no easy task, believe me), calculating each franchise's home/road winning percentage differential for every season since the Cavs were born. Here's a graph showing the Cavaliers' home court advantage compared to the NBA average over the years (click to enlarge):



From this we can see that the Cavs' abnormal home court advantage dates back to the lockout-shortened 1999 season at least. However, the team also had a rather wide differential between the years 1987 and 1995. Really, the only times the Cavs' home court advantage has dipped below the NBA average in recent years were the 1996 and 1998 seasons.

It's not surprising, then, to know that over the period 1987-2007, the Cavs rank 2nd in the NBA in home court advantage (the NBA average over this period is .238):

team      home/road W% diff.
Denver           .320
Cleveland        .308
Sacramento       .301
Utah             .288
Indiana          .275

Of course, prior to 1987, the Cavs' home court advantage fluctuated wildly, but showed no signs of being any better or worse than average. Thus, over the entire life of the Cavaliers franchise, they rank only 7th in the NBA in home court advantage.

So what changed? I certainly don't think we're seeing a 21-year fluke. The phenomenon predates the construction of Gund Arena, though that doesn't necessarily mean the building isn't somehow contributing to this effect.

The Denver Nuggets, you may have noticed, have always been at the top of the NBA in home court advantage. Among the reasons that have been proposed for this are the thinner air in the Denver region, for which the Nuggets are supposedly better conditioned, and the fact that visiting teams have to endure a 1-hour bus ride to get from the Denver airport to the Nuggets' arena. These both seem like plausible explanations to me, yet neither one sheds any light on the Cavaliers' situation. The Cleveland area is no different from any other region of the Midwest in terms of atmosphere, weather, etc.--nor do teams visiting Cleveland have to endure any unusual travel arrangements.

Also, I have noticed a preponderance of Western Conference teams among the home court elite. This makes sense, as a lot of teams have to travel further than usual to get to places like Utah, Denver, Portland, Seattle, and Sacramento, and many east coast teams only visit these cities in the middle of exceedingly long west coast road trips. Obviously, the same does not apply for Cleveland, which makes the Cavs' home court advantage even more unlikely and even more puzzling.

So what then? Honestly, I would like to hear your theories, because I don't have any. I am loathe to buy into the notion that the Cleveland fans are somehow "more intense" or louder than those of other teams. I happen to think that Cleveland fans are awesome, but I don't think there's a fundamental difference between Cavs fans and, say, Bulls fans, Pistons fans, or Bucks fans. We all come from the same general types of cultural, ethnic, and sports-obsessed backgrounds.

It occurred to me that I might look at Pythagorean winning percentage differential, instead of just regular winning percentage differential, to see if there was any more specific information to be gleaned. If it were true, for example, that the Cavs won more games at home despite scoring/allowing about the same number of points, on average, then we might be able to draw some definite conclusions. Here's a graph showing the Cavs' home court Pythagorean winning percentage differential, compared to league average, over the seasons (2007 data not included; click to enlarge):



On this graph, it doesn't look like the Cavs have as great an advantage, but actually, they do comparatively better in terms of Pythagorean home court advantage than in terms of normal home court advantage. Over the years 1971-2006, the Cavs ranked 4th in the NBA in this statistic. They also ranked 4th over the years 1987-2006 (league average during that period was .263):

team      home/road Pythag. W% diff.
Denver               .341
Utah                 .333
Sacramento           .328
Cleveland            .312
Indiana              .284

In conclusion, I can't really draw any conclusions. This is a topic that has fascinated me for some time now, yet I can't explain it. That the home court advantage is greater in basketball than in baseball, football, or hockey baffles me as it is. That the Cavaliers' home court advantage is greater than most other NBA teams' baffles me even more. Please, if anyone out there can shed any light on this mystery, let me know!

Happy belated Boxing Day, everyone! The Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times took another trip down to Cleveland Browns Stadium this week. This marks the fourth occasion both Corey and I made it to a Browns game during the Born and Raised era, the first three being against the Ravens in 2004 and the Bears and Ravens in 2005. So far, we'd notched a record of 3 victories against no defeats. Could we possibly continue this magical streak?

Well, since I'm writing this a couple days after the game, it should be known that no, we did not continue our streak. Through no fault of our own, of course. The Browns may have played very poorly, but I think there is something many writers and fans are overlooking when they criticize the team for its performance. The sun! For whatever reason, instead a cold and blustery Christmas Eve, Cleveland was cursed with an insanely bright and sunny day.



Of course the Browns played like crap. They had the sun in their eyes for like half the game! So, when the Browns take the field next week in the Texans' retractable-roof'd Reliant Stadium, none of these problems will appear. Expect nothing less than a game for the ages from our Brownies.


"What is this, Florida?"

And now on to your regularly scheduled items...

Play of the Week

Alex says: So what if the offense didn't score? The defense is good enough to put up points, right? Kamerion Wimbley's sack and forced fumble led directly to a Daven Holly touchdown! Even if that was essentially a random outcome, I bet the Browns could repeat the result over and over again. It's not like random means... wait, you mean it does? So you're saying that they couldn't...? Well, never mind then. It still was a pretty awesome play, though.

Corey says: Before I get to naming my Play of the Week, let me just warn you that this week, you're going to see me dig dangerously deep into the "phoning it in" barrel. Which is surprising, I know, considering the amount of good cheer and excitement swirling around the Browns this time of year. Somehow I just can't seem to muster as much cock-eyed optimism and unbridled enthusiasm as I normally do. Anyway, my Play of the Week will have to be, uh... Dennis Northcutt's 25-yard catch in the first quarter, the Browns' longest offensive gain of the day, and only their third play from scrimmage. It really got the Browns off on the right foot, which, as we all know, was the key to their entire gameplan. WAY TO GO!!!

Player of the Week

Alex says: L'Chaim! When Cosey Coleman went down with a leg injury on the first play of the second quarter, it seemed that the Browns had only enough offensive line depth to last one more series, let alone eight. Behind Lennie Friedman and the Maccabees, Reuben Droughns had one of his most successful games as a Brown on a per-play basis, surprisingly. Once the proverbial Judah entered the game, 7 of Droughns's 13 rushes were "successful" (as defined by Football Outsiders), with 4 of them earning first downs. Late as it was, it just isn't right to waste a Hanukkah gift such as this. Lennie even got to return a kickoff in the third quarter--what a double threat!

Corey says: I guess I'll go with Reuben Droughns. As Alex points out, the running game had perhaps its best performance of the season--quite ironically, I might add, since Tampa Bay usually struggles to defend the pass but does quite well at stopping the run. This game serves as yet another example of why running well is not important. I'm happy that Reuben Droughns was able to gain some yards, finally, but it really would only have been helpful to the Browns if they had a lead to protect. You simply don't score points by rushing, you do it by passing. Or, if you're the Browns, by praying. Zing!

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"We're 4-11 and we have one more game to go. If we win this one, that can help us in the off-season confidence-wise and, you know, get ready for next season." --Kellen Winslow

What separates the good from the great in the NFL? Obviously, it's confidence. If the Browns go into the off-season with confidence, as everyone knows, they'll be better prepared for scouting combine and eventually the draft. Maybe even mini-camp. I'm glad the Browns are in agreement with their fans here: it's time to forget about 2006. The season's almost over! Hooray!

Corey says:

"We held them as much as we could. We also could've done some things better. But the bottom line is, when you play like that you want to win. In games like that you wish you don't give up field goals. You wish they don't even score. It was a good job and effort but we need to take it to the next level and stop them from scoring, period." --Daven Holly

This quote almost comes across as a way of saying that the defense played okay. But I think the defensive performance on Sunday was almost as bad as the offensive one. It's easy to ignore the fact that the Buccaneers have the league's second-worst offense. The fact remains, the Bucs stink on offense, and we should adjust our impressions of the game accordingly. Grumble grumble grumble!

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: Hey, another blocked extra point! Why, that brings me back, all the way to November 26, 2006, when Simon Fraser tipped a Shayne Graham extra point. This time around, it was Sean Jones who got to block the kick. Sean didn't just leap at the line of scrimmage, either. No. He managed to find his way through the offensive line such that Sean blocked the kick by practically palming the ball. He didn't have to raise his arms past his shoulders nor did he have to leave his feet. That, people, is what I call domination. Potential extra point kickers, consider yourself warned; Sean Jones is waiting for you.

Corey says: Yeah, the blocked extra point is just about the only option here. If the Browns could have just blocked 18 more, they would have won the game, 7-6! (I think.)

Vagas Ferguson Memorial Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: I feel that Corey and I have a pretty good command of the Obscure Browns. We have to come up with one every week; I pay attention to these things. So, imagine my surprise to be innocently scanning the Browns sideline to find some #93 HARRIS character. "Who's #93?" I immediately asked Corey. Neither of us knew. Well, it turns out he's Orien Harris, a rookie defensive tackle from the University of Miami. He was drafted by the Steelers in the fourth round. Doesn't it seem odd that a fourth rounder would be cut just months after being drafted? It would be as if the Browns cut bait on Isaac Sowells before the season started. And why is Harris being activated before Babatunde Oluwasegun Temitope Oluwakorede Adisa Oshinowo, Jr? Not that I mind terribly; the more obscure Browns, the merrier!

Corey says: Wow, there are suddenly a ton of super-obscurities on the Browns' roster! There's Orien Harris; there's DB Ben Emanuel. There's even been a Nick Speegle sighting! But I'm going with newly promoted backup RB, Chris Barclay, #23. What an excellent, excellent jersey number Chris has! It surely gets me in the spirit for a certain major holiday coming up this Saturday... Anyway, interesting tidbit: Chris attended high school at Male Traditional High School in Louisville, Kentucky. Great name, eh?

Fashion Item of the Week

Alex says: I'm really reaching into the "Phoning It In" Barrel with this one, but:



Yeah, that's an Eric Zeier jersey. Bet you wish you had one. Honorable mentions to the Corey Brothers (or Brothers Rubin if you prefer) for their impeccable stylings: one #96 OSHINOWO and one #64 PONTBRIAND.

Corey says: I'm sick of people who go to NFL games on or before Christmas wearing Santa hats in their team's colors. This type of hatwear is widely known to guarantee your place on television when the network comes back from a commercial break, which is, of course, why people wear them. But let's stop the madness, people. Frankly, I'm beginning to think this Santa Claus character doesn't really even exist!

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: In their never-ending quest to spread evil across the Earth and enslave the human race, Heinz has a special promotion at Cleveland Browns Stadium this year. When the Browns drive inside the 20-yard line, they're not just in the red zone. Oh no, my friend. They're in the Heinz Red Zone! Because, you see, Heinz ketchup is red, like the "red" zone. Never mind that Heinz ketchup comes from Pittsburgh or that Cleveland is a mustard town. I think that the Browns front office, if they haven't done so already, should either return the H. J. Heinz Company's dirty money or donate it to needy children or something. We don't need these ketchup shysters mucking up our city.

Corey says: The Idiot of the Week is, naturally, my old nemesis: the sun. Since the beginning of time, man has yearned to destroy the sun. And when we sat down to look over the Browns' schedule all those months ago so as to select which game to get tickets to, I exclaimed, "December 24! Against Tampa Bay! It's going to be colder than McMurdo Station! It will be the greatest experience of our lives!" Naturally, the sun had other plans for the Browns. He turned Northeastern Ohio into a Florida-like haven of warmth and strip malls and old people. (Okay, just warmth.) You may have won the battle, you son of a bitch, but you haven't won the war!

Number of the Week

Alex says: -17.6, the Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement (DPAR) accumulated by Derek Anderson against the Buccaneers. Shockingly, this was the worst passing performance in New Browns history, by a healthy margin. With many thanks to Aaron Schatz and Pro-Football-Reference.com, here are the 5 worst games, by passing DPAR, in New Browns history:

           Yr Wk Opp   C/A Yds TD Int   DPAR
Anderson 2006 16  TB 10/27 123  0   4  -17.6
Garcia   2004  2 DAL  8/27  71  0   3  -15.5
Pederson 2000  8 PIT  9/20  61  0   3  -13.9
Dilfer   2005  7 DET 10/19  73  0   3  -13.8
Frye     2006 14 CIN 18/29 186  0   4  -10.9

Of course, as soon as Corey mentioned that Anderson had a decent chance to break the New Browns single-season DPAR record by having two mediocre-to-good games, Derek went all Spergon Wynn on us. Although, it still is pretty impressive to set a single-game record such as this one when you already have such inept competition. Congratulations, Derek!

Corey says: 1, the number of games left. Hooray! (And you thought I was kidding about phoning it in.)

Moral Standings

By refusing to be shut out for a precedented fourth time in a row, the Browns sealed another moral victory for themselves. Can they keep the dream of an undefeated season alive? Cincinnati, meanwhile, has played two games since the last edition of Born and Raised. Last week, they got morally pasted by Indianapolis, with Ochenta y Cinco struggling against the mighty Colts secondary. This week, they may have lost due to a botched snap, but they ended the game on a high note and will look to keep their momentum going forward. Moral victory. Elsewhere: despite their best efforts to the contrary, the Steelers notched a moral win simply because they were facing the Ravens, who are all out of hap.

            MW  ML  MT    pct
Cleveland   15   0   0  1.000
Cincinnati   8   7   0   .533
Pittsburgh   5   9   1   .367
Baltimore    0  16   0   .000

Next week: The Browns roll into Houston for what will turn out to be their final game of the season--unless, of course, they make the playoffs. Fortunately enough, we've stored up just enough tired puns and plagiarized football analysis for one more game! So make sure to check out the next thrilling edition of Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns!

There are only two of these puppies left, so let's make the most of them. This week the Browns actually go into a game as the favorites! (That's where they're theoretically "better" than the other team... I know it can be easy to forget sometimes when you're a Browns fan.) Let's take a closer look, though, at just how bad the Buccaneers really are.

First, of course, I remind you that the stats in this game preview come from Football Outsiders' weekly DVOA reports. Click here for a detailed explanation of how DVOA works.

Browns offense vs. Buccaneers defense:

           CLE offense   TB defense
total DVOA   -13.9%         5.5%
passing       -9.8%        20.0%
rushing      -19.6%        -9.0%

The Browns' historic climb up the offensive DVOA rankings continues! Their DVOA total of -13.9% has not changed since last week, but their NFL rank has now soared all the way to 28th (thank you, Lions offense)! Thus, it is no longer fair to say the Browns have a bottom-eighth offense (I don't know about you, but that was always how I used to refer to them). All sarcasm aside, though, the Browns offense has indeed performed marginally better over the last three games (which isn't saying much, I realize). Most of the improvement has been in the passing game, where they now rank 23rd in the NFL by DVOA (the running game still ranks 29th). Derek Anderson, in only two and a half games, has already racked up 9.1 DPAR with his passing, while maintaining a passing DVOA of 8.4%. The sample size is still incredibly small, but these numbers are pretty remarkable, given the circumstances. Consider the fact that Anderson is technically "on pace" to set a New Browns record for single-season passing DPAR:

QB         season   passing DPAR
Dilfer      2005        14.9
Holcomb     2004        13.7
Holcomb     2002        12.4
Garcia      2004        11.2
Anderson    2006         9.1
Detmer      1999         8.4
Couch       2002         7.5
Holcomb     2001         4.1
Holcomb     2003         2.8
Couch       2000         0.1
Couch       2003        -0.6
Frye        2005        -9.3
Frye        2006       -12.1
McCown      2004       -20.0
Pederson    2000       -21.1
Wynn        2000       -21.2
Couch       2001       -30.2
Couch       1999       -41.7

This is a cumulative stat, and the guy will probably finish the season having played only 4.5 games! I'm not saying he's going to amass the needed 5.8 passing DPAR over the next two games, but it's certainly not out of the question.

Briefly, let's discuss the Tampa defense. As a unit, they rank 23rd in overall DVOA, but only 30th (!) against the pass and 10th against the run. These numbers, combined with the fact that the Browns couldn't run the ball against a team of eighth-graders, scream for a gameplan that features lots and lots of passing. There ought to be ample opportunities for Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow to gain yards through the air, as the Bucs are particularly bad at defending passes to #1 receivers (20.6% DVOA, to rank 29th in the NFL) and tight ends (37.9% DVOA, to rank 31st). I realize the DVOA numbers, taken alone, suggest the Tampa defense is slightly better than the Browns offense, but the Browns offense has a few things going for it: recent success (relative to past performance, that is), favorable individual matchups, and the home field advantage. In the end, I think it's just too close to call. Advantage: Neither

Buccaneers offense vs. Browns defense:

            TB offense  CLE defense
total DVOA   -19.6%         4.9%
passing      -25.0%         4.8%
rushing      -12.7%         5.0%

Yes, Virginia, there is an offense worse than the Browns', and it comes from Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers (or "Suckaneers", as I would call them if I actually gave a damn about the Buccaneers) rank 31st in offensive DVOA, leading only the Raiders. They also rank 31st in terms of passing DVOA, and 27th in rushing. Of course, the Bucs did switch to a different quarterback last week (Elyria native Tim Rattay), and in doing so put up 31 points against one of the best defenses of our time (the Bears). Rattay even led the NFL in DPAR by a quarterback in Week 15, with 9.7. Do I think this is cause for concern? Absolutely--but it was just one game, so it shouldn't really carry a lot of weight at this point. For one thing, Rattay, despite showing flashes of brilliance in his career, has been on a steady decline in recent seasons, following his spectacular 2003 DVOA of 44.1% with a DVOA of -4.6% in 2004, and -30.0% in 2005. For another thing, his supporting cast has been thoroughly awful all season long, with the absolute best of the Bucs' passing targets (WR Joey Galloway) carrying a receiving DVOA of -12.1%. Tampa's primary rusher ("Cadillac" Williams), meanwhile, has been worth -15.5% DVOA on the ground. All things considered, I'm inclined to defer to the numbers. Advantage: Browns

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns  Buccaneers
total DVOA                3.7%      0.5%
FG kicking               -1.6       0.6
CLE kickoff vs. TB KR     0.6      -4.5
CLE KR vs. TB kickoff    11.0      12.7
CLE punt vs. TB PR        7.3      -5.6
CLE PR vs. TB punt        2.0      -0.6

The Browns have fallen to 6th in the NFL in special teams DVOA. Indeed, it has been a few weeks since we've seen any truly great special teams plays. They remain strong in three areas, however: kick returning, where they rank 3rd, punting, where they rank 6th, and punt returning, where they rank 9th. The Tampa Bay special teams rank 17th in the NFL in DVOA. They are led by a stellar kickoff team, ranked 2nd in the NFL, which means it will be especially difficult for Josh Cribbs and company to spring a return this week. The rest of the Buccaneers special teams are league average or worse. All in all, Advantage: Browns

Things are looking pretty good for the Browns, as they outmatch the Buccaneers in at least two--maybe all three--phases of the games. The one thing that could really give the Browns the huge advantage they need would be some kind of snow storm of Biblical proportions. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like that's going to happen. Mistake by the Lake's own Doppler 53000000 is currently forecasting temperatures in the 40's with a 10% chance of precipitation (ie: rain). Thanks a lot, global warming! Anyway, enjoy the game, and I'll see you at the stadium!

Much is being (and will continue to be) made about the fact that the Browns have now gone 0-6 against division opponents. I agree that this is a bad thing, but I maintain that it's only as bad as going 0-6 over any 6-game sample. The 2006 Browns, for example, have also gone 0-6 in games in which their opponent gained an odd number of first downs. This is a meaningless category, of course, but the fact remains, it is just as difficult to maintain a winning percentage of X in games in which your opponent gains an odd number of first downs as it is to maintain a winning percentage of X in games against division rivals. Granted, a team's performance in the latter category can have certain implications on its playoff chances that its performance in the former cannot, but in terms of measuring team quality (or predicting future success), the two categories are equally meaningful (and it's not as if the Browns were playoff bound, anyway).

In other words, describing the Browns as a team that went 0-6 against AFC North teams tells you something about the Browns, but not as much as describing them as a team that has gone 4-10 overall. I don't believe a weakness is reflected in the "0-6 against division rivals" description that isn't also (and, I would argue, more accurately) reflected in the "4-10 overall" description.

As for this week's game, the fact that the Browns offense scored 17 points against the Ravens defense is a positive achievement, if you ask me. Of course, one of Baltimore's touchdowns was essentially a gift of a Derek Anderson interception, so you might say the offense "netted" only 10 points. By that logic, the defense only allowed 20. All things considered, I'd say the Browns played decently but not nearly well enough.

Let's get to the regular items...

Play of the Week

Alex says: The Browns' longest play from scrimmage was actually their second play from scrimmage. In the first quarter, on 2nd-and-10, Derek Anderson hit a definitely-not-open Kellen Winslow on the left hashmark for 36 yards. With receiving targets like Winslow, Braylon Edwards, Joe Jurevicius, and even Steve Heiden, it's surprising to me that the offense has been so ineffective lately. The offensive line has played much better of late (at least in pass blocking) and with a strong-armed Derek Anderson, I would've expected a more potent aerial attack. And by "more potent", I don't mean "more potent than when Charlie Frye was in".

Corey says: I'm going with Leigh Bodden's interception. The Baltimorons, leading by 11, had just driven 52 yards and were in field goal range, so it was a really opportune time for Leigh to display his mad skillz. Have I ever mentioned I love Leigh Bodden? Leigh Bodden Leigh Bodden Leigh Bodden Leigh Bodden Leigh Bodden Leigh Bodden Leigh Bodden.

Player of the Week

Alex says: Inside linebacker Leon Williams and his untamable dreadlocks were all over the field against the Ravens. Leon was involved in twelve plays on the afternoon--a team high. And on those twelve plays, the Ravens offense found success (defined by Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders as "40% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, and 100% of needed yards on third down") um... fice? Okay, four times. And one of those four successes was a near Jamal Lewis fumble-cum-touchdown. Not to overlook that Williams did cause an actual Jamal Lewis fumble later on. Leon was especially good in run coverage, keeping the rushing from reaching the sticks nearly every time he made a tackle. Oh, and for those of you that still quote Playmakers (i.e. Corey), "Lee-on".

Corey says: The defense as a unit was rather unspectacular this weekend, but Leigh Bodden started to look like his old self--which means he was ridiculously good. According to the official play-by-play, the Baltimore QBs tested Bodden only 4 times (which suggests that Leigh's man was rarely open)--two passes were completed but failed to gain a first down, one fell incomplete, and the other Leigh intercepted.

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"When you can take your backup quarterback and your defense... drive back downfield and score and [Cleveland] doesn't score any more the rest of the game--that's championship football any time you can do that." --Ray Lewis

Think of all the championship teams that have taken their backup quarterback and defense, driven downfield, and didn't allow the Browns to score the rest of the game throughout history. Like the '86 Giants, or the '71 Cowboys. And let's not forget the '94 49ers! Because the true measuring stick of whether a team can win the Super Bowl is if they can beat the Browns with their backup quarterback. Well, I guess come February 4, I'll be seeing you--Ray Lewis--in Miami!

Corey says:

"It's not an effort thing. It's something we have to overcome. It's constant. We're inconsistent. We're like a rollercoaster. We can't play like that. Each unit on the team has to complement each other. You can't be inconsistent against a good team like Baltimore." --Josh Cribbs

I know this isn't exactly what Cribbs meant, but, coming into Week 15, Football Outsiders ranked the Browns the 5th most consistent team in the NFL (their DVOA variance was only 8.9%). Of course, if "inconsistent" simply means "winning some of the time but losing some of the time", then isn't a .500 team the most inconsistent of all? Either way, I would compare the 2006 Browns to a lot of amusement park attractions before I'd compare them to a rollercoaster.

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: What has happened to the special teams? While they didn't play poorly this week, they used to be good for at least one highlight per game. And now, I'm forced to name a pedestrian 51-yard field goal as my Special Teams Moment of the Week. Even though Phil Dawson made a kick from 51 yards away, he missed one from 47, making 2006 perhaps his worst season since his rookie year in 1999. Phil has hit on only 50% of kicks between 40-49 yards, compared to a career average coming into this season of 67%. Personally, I believe this to be a one-year dip in performance, rather than Dawson showing some age. He's only 31, and kickers don't decline until they're really, really old.

Corey says: Early in the second quarter, on a Dave Zastudil punt, our man Ryan Pontbriand earned his second solo tackle of the season (fourth if you count assists)--also his second in as many games. Depending on what the other long snappers of the NFL did this weekend (not to shock you or anything, but I don't always keep track), this could catapult Ryan into the top 10 in tackles by a long snapper!

Felipe Claybrooks Memorial Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: Last season, I nominated him as a potential Obscure Brown of the Century. This season, Jason Gomillion Wright beat the odds and became the second-string half back. But now, after suffering a "pretty severe" knee injury according to Romeo Crennel, who knows the next time we'll see Jason. Will he fade back into the obscurity from which he miraculously appeared last season? Will he finally make good on his undergraduate studies and go to medical school? Will he return even better than before... with a vengeance? The world may never know. I just want to wish Jason to get well soon and let the world know that he's been one of the best Obscure Browns a third-rate Browns blogger could've hoped for.

Corey says: Though he wasn't quite obscure when the season began (due to being a just-selected third round draft pick), WR Travis Wilson (#81) has received almost no playing time this year, so I feel he's faded enough from the public consciousness to be considered obscure. Anyway, against the 'Morons, Travis caught his first NFL pass, a 16-yarder that helped set up a touchdown. (Remember that one drive in the second quarter when literally every play was a pass that gained a first down?) Anyway, the only interesting tidbit I could find in my extensive 25 seconds of research on Travis is that he was a University Studies major at Oklahoma. Does anyone care to explain to me what that means?

Fashion Item of the Week

Alex says: When Derek Anderson first replaced Charlie Frye against the Chiefs two weeks ago, he was just a fresh-faced kid brimming with youthful experience. Today, Derek is already transforming into the grizzled experienced veteran filled with calm poise and wisdom. How can I tell all this? Because Anderson has begun growing out his manly beard--a sure sign of veteran savvy. For what's it worth, in two and a half games as the starting quarterback, Derek Anderson already has an awesome beard. In 17 games as a starter, Charlie Frye only managed his little white trash-esque wisps of facial hair.

Corey says: There is still one home game left--and LeBron help me, I don't want to jinx anything--but it's seriously looking like the Browns are not going to wear their hideous orange alternate jerseys in a game this year. (In hindsight, the throwbacks they wore against Cincinnati probably served as their alternates this year, so I think we're safe from seeing the orange abominations next week against Tampa.) Now, I don't know if they announced their intentions on this at the outset of the season, but if they did, I certainly didn't hear about it. Needless to say, I'm thrilled that the Browns are finally ditching the orange.

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: It has been 2,514 days since Ray Lewis last murdered someone (assuming he can make it through the rest of the day without killing someone) and he probably should be commended for that. That's a long time between felonies for a hardened criminal such as himself. But even then, Ray Lewis is my Idiot of the Week because he's a vile, stupid, ugly, overrated, annoying, weaselly, lecherous, hate-filled, depraved, corrupt, untrustworthy, shameful, repulsive, moronic, traitorous shell of a man.

Corey says: Do you even have to ask? (Not that you asked... but do you even have to?)

Number of the Week

Alex says: 0, the number of third down conversions by the Browns. I didn't realize this during the game, but the Browns went 0 for 11 on third downs against the 'Morons. Four times the offense faced 3rd-and-1 or 3rd-and-2 and each time Jeff Davidson chose to pass, resulting in a completion for -2 yards, an incompletion, and two sacks. In fact, the Browns didn't run once on third down all afternoon. The running game has been pretty bad all century and the Ravens are equally tough against the pass and the rush, so I can understand the offense being skewed towards passing. But on third-and-short, the Browns should try giving the ball to Reuben Droughns at least once. He's a pretty big guy, I bet he could get one yard.

Corey says: I don't know how to sum this up in just one number, but it's related to statistics, so I'll run with it. By traditional NFL standards, several Ravens had good rushing performances this week against the Browns: Jamal Lewis ran 22 times for 109 yards (an average of 5.0 yards per carry) while Mike Anderson ran 3 times for 22 yards (7.3 yards per carry). However, these numbers, especially the yards per carry totals, are misleading. Take away Lewis' longest run (a 52-yarder) and he carried 21 times for 57 yards, for an average of only 2.7 yards per carry. That's almost Browns-esque. Take away Mike Anderson's longest run (a 19-yarder), and he carried 2 times for only 3 yards. Heck, Kyle Boller rushed 9 times for a rather unimpressive 12 yards, but take away his longest run (a 10-yarder), and he carried 8 times for only 2 yards! In other words, the Ravens' rushing attack was severely skewed toward a couple of successful plays (three plays, in fact). This is not meant to take away from the success the Ravens did have, but for most of the afternoon, the Browns run defense actually did an excellent job. Minus the three big plays, Baltimore as a team rushed 32 times for 61 yards--an average of 1.9 yards per carry.

Moral Standings

The Browns, of course, cruised to an easy moral victory over what can only be described as the worst moral football team in history. Perfect moral record, here we come! Meanwhile, since last we updated you on the AFC North Moral Standings, the Ravens have actually picked up two moral losses--one for their spineless display of immorality against the Browns, but also one for their depraved performance last week against Kansas City (which had yet to occur when we published the last "Born and Raised"). Likewise, the Bengals earned a moral victory last week versus Oakland, even though they have yet to play their Week 15 game (tonight against Indianapolis). The Steelers, for their part, found a way to eke by yesterday, earning a narrow moral victory in their 37-3 win over the Panthers.

            MW  ML  MT    pct
Cleveland   14   0   0  1.000
Cincinnati   7   6   0   .538
Pittsburgh   4   9   1   .321
Baltimore    0  15   0   .000

Next week: In a surprise meteorological development (read: belated Festivus miracle!), temperatures in the Greater Cleveland Area drop to 40 below 0°F just hours before the Browns kick off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as the hometown heroes run circles around their suddenly-frozen-solid counterparts. Join us right here to defrost and reminisce over all the awesome highlights, on yet another comprehensive "Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns"!

Can you feel the electricity in the air? It must be time for more Browns football! Do our Browns stand a chance of beating the detestable Slimebuckets--I mean Ravens? Let's discuss.

First, your usual reminders: stats in this preview come from Football Outsiders' weekly DVOA reports, and a detailed explanation of how DVOA works can be found here.

Browns offense vs. Ravens defense:

           CLE offense  BAL defense
total DVOA   -13.9%       -24.9%
passing       -9.0%       -24.3%
rushing      -20.4%       -25.7%

Yowza! The Browns did not put up many points against the Steelers last Thursday, but DVOA seemed to like what they did do, because their offensive rating for the season has risen to its highest point of the year: a still-dismal -13.9% (29th in the NFL)! Some of the improvement may be attributable to the fine passing we've seen from Derek Anderson so far (2.1 DPAR, 6.5% DVOA), and right now, it's looking like Anderson will get the start again this weekend in Baltimore. Joe Jurevicius, too, has played extremely well of late, following his great performance against Kansas City with a 5.0 DPAR game against Pittsburgh (5th-best among NFL receivers in Week 14).

The Baltimorons, however, have the league's second-best defense, according to DVOA. They rank #3 against the pass and #2 against the run. They lead the NFL in interceptions per drive (with .146) and trail only the Bears in yards allowed per drive (23.56), points allowed per drive (1.11), and touchdowns allowed per drive (.113). They also record a sack on 8.9% of passing plays, which is the best such mark in the NFL. So what can the Browns offense do to combat this obvious disadvantage? Well, not much. One player that could be a major factor is Braylon Edwards: he had a great game against the 'Morons last time (catching for 116 yards including a 58-yard touchdown catch) and the 'Morons, while strong against all types of receivers, are the weakest against #1 receivers (-2.1% DVOA, ranking 16th in the NFL). Regardless, for the Browns to have any kind of success on offense this Sunday, they're going to need lots of luck. Huge advantage: Ravens

Ravens offense vs. Browns defense:

           BAL offense  CLE defense
total DVOA     2.5%         4.9%
passing       11.5%         4.4%
rushing       -7.8%         5.3%

It figures. Just as the Browns offense is showing signs of maybe, slowly rising out of the primordial abyss, the defense begins to slip from its once-lofty perch. The last three games have come against good offenses, sure, but each opponent has been a little less accomplished than the last (Cincinnati, Kansas City, Pittsburgh), and so the Browns now rank only 23rd in the NFL in defensive DVOA. The pass defense, which three weeks ago ranked 5th in the NFL by DVOA, now ranks 18th. It pains me to admit this, but it may have been too early to insert Leigh Bodden back into the lineup. Against Pittsburgh especially, it looked as though Leigh was not able to play at full speed. Incidentally, he is still listed as questionable for this Sunday's game.

On the plus side, I think the Browns match up well against the offense of the Slimebuckets--I mean Ravens. Baltimore ranks 12th in the NFL in offensive DVOA, but their areas of strength happen to correspond to the strengths of the Browns defense. I've pointed this out the last couple of times these teams have met, but the Ravens receiving corps really drops off after #1 receiver Derrick Mason (13.1 DPAR, 7.3% DVOA) and TE Todd Heap (9.8 DPAR, 5.1% DPAR). The Browns, as you may know, specialize in covering #1 receivers (-10.3% DVOA, 7th in the NFL) and tight ends (-50.2%, 2nd in the NFL). Mason, you'll recall, had a great game against the Browns last time out, but I believe he preyed primarily on Gary Baxter in that game, so perhaps we'll see a different result with Baxter out of the mix. Also, while the Browns' run defense has been pretty weak all year, so has Baltimore's rushing offense, which ranks 22nd in the NFL. Jamal Lewis has been characteristically inefficient and ineffective, amassing only 1.0 DPAR with a DVOA of -11.8%. This is not to say that Baltimore has a weak offense; overall, they've been quite good, especially in the passing game, but I think the Browns at least stand a chance of keeping the game close. Slight advantage: Ravens

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns    Ravens
total DVOA                3.7%      3.5%
FG kicking               -1.7       5.4
CLE kickoff vs. BAL KR   -0.4       4.3
CLE KR vs. BAL kickoff   11.6       3.0
CLE punt vs. BAL PR       5.6       1.9
CLE PR vs. BAL punt       2.4       2.0

Both of these squads are great on special teams, ranking 3rd and 4th in the NFL in special teams DVOA, respectively. The Browns, as you know, are led by their 2nd-ranked kickoff return team and their 7th-ranked punt team. The Baltimorons are led by their 4th-ranked field goal kicking and their 8th-ranked kickoff return team. The weak link for both units is the kickoff team, which means kickoff returners from both sides will have an opportunity to run hog wild. Advantage: Neither

All in all, the outlook is grim for the Browns. You knew that already. That doesn't mean they can't win the game, though, because they can. It's going to take a lot of luck, some success on special teams, and (one would think) a low-scoring game. Enjoy it if you can, Browns fans!

As I'm sure all of you are aware, tonight is "Anderson Varejão Wig Night" at Quicken Loans Arena. With tonight's giveaway and the Drew Gooden Bald Head Kit from November 29, the Cavaliers marketing team has shown no aversion to quirky and unusual promotions. So, in no particular order, here's a quick list of other possible giveaways.

• Shannon Brown Head Band With Attached Dreadlocks Kit. They have to get rid of those left-over Drew Gooden bald caps somehow, right?
• Larry Hughes Street Clothes Giveaway. No need to suit up--you can look comfortable and styling with the most fashionable attire of today, just like Larry!
• Zydrunas Ilgauskas Stick-On Stubble Night. And any fan with actual stubble gets an 11% discount on tickets!
• Daniel Gibson Falsies Extravaganza. Get it?
• Sasha Pavlovic Nose Putty Giveaway. Who wouldn't want to look like Mr. Bean--er, Sasha?
• Donyell Marshall Unusually Large Ass Prosthesis. Seriously, has anyone besides Corey or me noticed this before? It's mesmerizing!
• Free Ira Newble Ottoman. To make your benchwarming experience all the more comfortable!
• Children's David Wesley Goatee. Finally, kids get to look just like their favorite Cavalier, David Wesley!
• Scot Pollard Socks Gift. I was struggling to find something unique about Scot's appearance, but then I realized he's practically always wearing socks!
• Damon Jones Tattoo Night. Every fan in attendance can have their own first name permanently affixed to their left shoulder!
• Eric Snow Veteran Leadership Workshop. Fans will learn how to have grit and determination!
• Dwayne Jones Identification Card. So everyone will stand a chance of knowing who Dwayne Jones is!

LeBron, for His part, is above such things. But if you work for the Cavaliers, feel free to use any of my ideas!

The Cavs' 107-75 win over the Pacers on Saturday night was most excellent, wouldn't you agree? It actually got me to wondering: which was the best single game the Cavs have played since the start of the LeBron Era? I'm talking about the best game independent of context--in other words, not the most meaningful necessarily, but the most convincing victory in terms of offense and defense.

I combined the Cavs' offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) and defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) from each individual game of the LeBron Era (10/29/03 to present), using a Pythagorean formula, into a statistic I'll call "quality" for lack of a better name. Here are the games that came out on top:

     Game         Score   O-Eff.  D-Eff.  Qual.
1/24/06 vs IND    96-66   103.5    70.6   .995
11/13/04 vs WAS  105-74   110.8    77.4   .993
11/9/05 vs SEA   112-85   136.0    96.1   .992
12/9/06 vs IND   107-75   107.8    76.6   .992
3/3/04 vs ATL    112-80   116.6    82.9   .992
11/11/05 vs MEM   89-70   106.1    75.8   .991
12/20/05 vs UTA  110-85   124.1    92.1   .985
1/8/05 vs NYK    104-79   109.7    81.7   .984
4/4/06 vs PHI    124-91   131.0   100.4   .976
4/3/05 vs DAL    100-80   111.7    85.6   .976

So, in these terms, Saturday's blowout was the fourth-most dominant performance of the LeBron Era. Of course, this ranking assumes all opponents are equal. It's a lot easier to hold the '04 Hawks to 80 points than the '05 Mavericks. For that reason, I decided to come up with an opponent-adjusted version of "quality" based on opponent-adjusted versions of offensive and defensive efficiency.

My opponent-adjusted efficiency stats are pretty straightforward (and not very sophisticated). For example, if the Cavs are facing a team whose full-season defensive efficiency is about X% worse than league average, then, for the game in question, the Cavs' opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency will be about X% worse than their actual offensive efficiency. Likewise, the Cavs' opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency is similarly influenced by the other team's full-season offensive efficiency.

Using opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies (OAOE and OADE) as a basis for "Opponent-Adjusted Quality" (OAQ), the best Cavaliers performances of the LeBron Era now appear to be:

     Game         Score    OAOE    OADE    OAQ
1/24/06 vs IND    96-66   107.2    71.9   .996
11/11/05 vs MEM   89-70   110.6    76.2   .995
11/13/04 vs WAS  105-74   109.5    76.5   .993
4/3/05 vs DAL    100-80   114.0    82.2   .990
11/9/05 vs SEA   112-85   126.3    91.9   .988
12/9/06 vs IND   107-75   109.4    79.8   .988
3/3/04 vs ATL    112-80   113.1    84.4   .984
12/20/05 vs UTA  110-85   123.1    94.1   .977
1/8/05 vs NYK    104-79   106.6    81.9   .976
11/27/04 vs CHI   96-74   116.6    90.2   .974

Okay, so, to the best that I can discern, the game on Saturday was only the sixth-best in LeBron history. That's still pretty great, though.

Finally, for those who are curious (sickos), here are the worst games the Cavs have played since the start of the LeBron Era:

     Game         Score    OAOE    OADE    OAQ
3/10/06 at ORL   73-102    82.7   124.9   .003
4/5/05 vs NJN    80-111    97.6   145.5   .004
1/9/04 at BOS    82-107    80.9   107.8   .018
2/2/06 at MIA    73-101    77.7   103.2   .019
2/25/05 at IND   82-106    95.8   125.5   .022
12/8/04 at CHI   85-113    98.3   126.6   .028
1/20/05 at SAC   96-123    98.1   124.5   .034
3/26/04 at PHI    71-86    94.3   119.2   .036
11/1/03 at POR   85-104    89.3   112.8   .036
2/7/04 vs WAS    88-106    96.1   121.1   .038

Hey, at least none of those games occurred this season. That's all I got for now.

At least it wasn't as bad as the Cincinnati game!

Okay, that's not much of a reassurance. But don't worry, I have many more rationalizations (remember, I am a Cleveland fan), like "We've been beaten worse by Pittsburgh before!" Or what about, "Since most people don't have the NFL Network, the Browns didn't really get creamed on national television!" And then there's my personal favorite, "Moral victory! Moral victory!"

Honestly, that sucked, a lot. Just last week, the Browns beat an actual good team. And recently they at least played even with these same Steelers in a game they should've won. So, in an attempt to diagnose the team's problems, here's a special section I like to call...

Hey, Wha' Happened?

• Passing offense - Derek Anderson played fairly well and the pass protection was great considering how Pittsburgh's blitzes used to give the Browns fits. But those dropped passes...
• Rushing offense - Pitiful, absolutely pitiful. The offensive line couldn't open any holes at all, especially to the outside. Fortunately, Jeff Davidson didn't try to force the issue by "establishing the run".
• Passing defense - Nate Washington's touchdown bomb was ugly, but just one play. The real storyline is not the failing of the defensive backs, but of the pass rush. Well, actually there wasn't one. Of course Ben Röthlisberger found an open receiver every single time he dropped back; he had all of 20 seconds to wait for someone to find space.
• Rushing defense - Also pitiful, but I maintain that if the Browns could've stopped the pass, Willie Parker's exploits would've meant next to nothing. You win with the pass, not with the run.
• Special teams - The special teams unit continues their slow descent back to Earth. They played an unspectacular game, with Dawson's missed field goal as the only true mistake. It wouldn't be fair to Josh "MTV" Cribbs to fault him for failing to score a touchdown, but I can't help myself. Shame on you, Josh. We're not mad at you, just disappointed.

And now on to your regularly scheduled items:

Play of the Week

Alex says: The game was out of hand, but I'm always up for some padding of the stats! So, when Derek Anderson hit Braylon Edwards for a short 5-yard hook that turned into a 45-yard touchdown, not only did the Browns regain a slight air of dignity, but it filled out the stat sheet quite nicely. You can ratchet up that fourth down conversion percentage and all sorts of passing measures. Now that's what I'm talking about! As a thought experiment, if the pass had simply dropped incomplete, all else being equal, Derek Anderson's QB rating for the game would drop by more than 16 points. What a play.

Corey says: Though the Browns played terribly overall, they did manage a couple of good plays, most of them in the passing game. My choice for this week is a play you might not remember, because it only gained 16 yards and because it occurred very early in the game. Nonetheless, it was very well thought-up and very well executed. Facing 1st-and-10 in the first quarter after a roughing the punter penalty breathed new life into the Browns' drive, the Browns' interior linemen--Andruzzi, Fraley, and Coleman--did their best matador impressions and allowed their opponents to run right past them. Derek Anderson waited until the last possible moment before getting creamed by the 5 Steelers who were blitzing, to toss a quick screen to Reuben Droughns right in front of him, who then had a convoy of three heavy-duty offensive linemen to block for him, and no linebackers in sight. Thanks to those 3 blockers and another key block further downfield by Kellen Winslow, Droughns picked up 16 yards and a first down. I really liked this play call, because the Steelers, as a team, blitz a ton. Although Pittsburgh currently ranks 10th in defending passes to running backs (-30.4% DVOA), in 2005, they really struggled in this area (ranking 30th in the NFL with 20.2% DVOA), which I believe was due to their blitz-happy schemes. Also: normally, when the Browns run a screen pass, it's the type of play that ends with Dennis Northcutt or someone tackled for a loss of 1 over by the sideline. Not so on this particular play. Well done, I say.

Player of the Week

Alex says: Dave Zastudil may have been the only Brown to make good on all the opportunities handed to him this week. On his six punts, five were fielded within the 21-yard line--including two either downed or fair caught within the 10. And keep in mind that the game time temperature was around -350ºF. Since Chris Gardocki was so discourteously shunned from the team, the Browns have had inconsistent punters to say the least. I don't want to jump the gun, but the DZast-er looks like a keeper for the long term. Coming into this game, the Browns' punting unit ranked seventh in the NFL according to Football Outsiders. Zastudil is 28--not too bad for a special teamer--and as a local legend, the team should be inclined to keep him around longer than usual.

Corey says: For lack of any truly obvious candidates, I'm going with Derek Anderson. He did throw for a lot of yards, and despite a couple of mistakes (such as the interception), threw most of his passes on the money. The receivers dropped a ton of balls, though, so the stats don't look as pretty as they should. See my Number of the Week (below) for more on all the dropped passes.

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"It's just... beat. We're beat. That's what it was. We got beat. Alright?" --Romeo Crennel

Easy, big fella! Romeo Crennel certainly isn't loquacious in press conferences, but after this loss he was downright grouchy. Of course, who can blame him? Anyway, the Romeo Crennel Grace Period has come to a close; some fans are beginning to turn on him and the entire coaching staff. This isn't an exoneration of Romeo, but fans are more inclined to dislike him because he gives exactly the wrong reactions on the sideline that we don't want to see. Instead of being fired up and yelling at players who suck, the cameras usually catch Crennel motionlessly staring at the field--not talking to assistants or players. My gut tells me that how the coach acts on the sideline doesn't matter much, but I would feel better if he didn't conjure images of Terry Robiskie looking confused so often.

Corey says:

"I hate talking about college, but when I was in Miami we had already won the game before it happened. Intimidation was a factor. The work ethic was a factor. That's the point the Cleveland Browns have to get to. That's what the Steelers do. They try and intimidate you and they do a good job of doing that and that's why they're the defending champions." --Kellen Winslow

As you might guess, I disagree with this argument very strongly. I don't think the Steelers' winning the Super Bowl had anything whatsoever to do with their ability to intimidate their opponents. More importantly, though, I would like to ask Kellen why, exactly, he "hates talking about college." Seems like an odd thing to say, is all.

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: When the Browns still had a chance--their first drive of the game--Dave Zastudil and his Punt Coverin' Crew executed a textbook punt. Once the ball had completed its magical journey through the pollution-choked Pittsburgh skies, it died a quiet and peaceful death at the Steelers own 3-yard line. And while on its deathbed, waiting by its side were no fewer than seven Browns ready to pin the Steelers near their own end zone. Assuming the DZast-er was covering deep, that leaves only two players unaccounted for. While we may never know for sure, I'd bet they were probably fetching Gatorade for needy children or something.

Corey says: Alex took mine, so for variety, I'll go with the blocked field goal. I believe it was Alvin "Mount" McKinley who got his hand on it, though the kick was awfully low to begin with. Have you noticed that when the Browns block kicks, it's always either McKinley or Orpheus Roye doing the blocking? For some reason, I think of a "typical" blocked kick being blocked by a speedy guy coming around the corner, but that could just be in my head. Maybe the majority of blocks are in fact accomplished by the big, tall interior linemen who get a finger or two on the ball as it sails overhead.

Sam Palumbo Memorial Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: The Browns may be the only team in the NFL that goes three deep at tight end and two deep at fullback. And for that reason, I'd like to honor the team's Mr. Everything, Lawrence Vickers. First of all, he's a fullback. He even got a carry this week. Second of all, he's a key special teamer. Lawrence returned his fourth kickoff on Thursday. And finally, he makes for an excellent punchline. Next time you're watching a Browns game, and the offense is struggling, suggest that they bring in Vickers to run his signature halfback sweep or even to throw a halfback pass. You'll knock 'em dead every time.

Corey says: I'm going with rookie DB Jereme (middle name Jovon) Perry, #31, because, uhh... his birthday is coming up (December 15). Is it me, or have the Browns had an underwhelming crop of obscure players so far this year. Call up Buck Ortega and Therrian "Don't Forget" Fontenot already!

Fashion Item of the Week

Alex says: I should have a better resistance than this, but whenever I caught a glimpse of the referees in their black pants, I had to shake my head in disgust. It's hard to decide whether they look more like they're wearing pajamas or sweat pants. It's just atrocious. Can the referees have a throwback uniform day too?

Corey says: If you watched the post-game interviews on the Browns' website, you saw Braylon Edwards' oh-so-stylish locker room outfit. I believe the correct term is "pimpin'". Braylon had on a black suit with a black hat, a red and black tie, and a bright red opera scarf à la Al Capone. Maybe you just had to see it.

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: Some people would say that you can't blame Willie Parker for his idiotic nickname, but I say you definitely can. Parker is indeed a fast runner, he may even be the fastest player in the NFL. But "Fast" is--without exception--a stupid nickname. Derek Anderson is tall, but no one calls him "Tall" Derek Anderson. Ted Washington is really fat, but no one calls him "Fat" Ted Washington. Joe Jurevicius is super white, but no one calls him "White" Joe Jurevicius. That "Fast" even got a foothold in Pittsburgh before catching on nationwide speaks to the general low intelligence of Steeler fans. The worst nickname to come out of Cleveland in recent memory is probably Anderson "Wild Thing" Varejão, and that's only because it's been used before. But to reach Willie Parker-levels of stupidity, it would have to be something like "Brazilian" Anderson Varejão.

Corey says: Believe me when I tell you that the NFL Network has not put an end to my quest to listen to an NFL television color commentator who is not a complete moron, just once in my life. Someday I may get my wish, but Cris Collinsworth won't be the guy to grant it. I don't even want to get into specifics; I'm just glad he doesn't cover the Browns again this year.

Number of the Week

Alex says: 2, the number of Browns rushes that were successful. As Aaron Schatz wrote in Pro Football Prospectus 2006, "A successful play must gain 40% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, and 100% of needed yards on third down." One of those successful plays was a Derek Anderson scramble up the middle on 3rd-and-2 that gained four yards... but resulted in a lost fumble. Thus the Browns' only unequivocally successful run was on their sixth play from scrimmage: Reuben Droughns gained five yards off right guard on 2nd-and-8. Jeff Davidson only called 11 running plays on Thursday, but maybe he should've called fewer. As bad as the run defense played, the run offense was worse.

Corey says: Derek Anderson threw 37 passes, 16 of which fell incomplete. That may seem like kind of a bad percentage on paper; however, based on my review of the game tape, 11 of those 16 were the result of dropped passes. That would mean that Anderson threw 37 passes, only 5 of which were "normal" incompletes; that is, incompletes for which the primary blame could reasonably be assigned to Anderson. (The unofficial Heinz Field tally says the Browns dropped only 7 passes, but I'm including things like passes that traveled right between a receiver's hands even if the receiver didn't technically put a hand on it. It's subjective; I know.) If you watched the game, you know I'm not trying to make excuses for the guy--he really did play pretty well. Which receivers, then, were the biggest offenders? Among the 11 dropped passes I counted, 4 were intended for Northcutt, 2 for Edwards, and 1 each for Jason Gomillion Wright, Darnell Dinkins, Joe Jurevicius, Terrelle Smith, and Kellen Winslow. Oh, and here comes the worst part: by my estimation, 8 of those 11 drops would have been first downs had the intended receivers held on to the ball.

Moral Standings

With a late, life-affirming touchdown, Braylon Edwards and the Browns kept the Moral Victory gravy train rolling. Conversely, by failing to notch a sack, despite their vaunted blitz-be-crazy defense, the Steelers "earned" themselves another moral loss. Now officially eliminated from the Moral Playoffs, this season couldn't be more disappointing for the defending champions. The Bengals and Ravens won't play until Sunday afternoon. Although both are predicted to suffer moral losses, we only deal with reality and not predictions and silly fantasy worlds here on Born and Raised. You'll have to wait to find out the outcomes of those games.

            MW  ML  MT    pct
Cleveland   13   0   0  1.000
Cincinnati   6   6   0   .500
Pittsburgh   3   9   1   .269
Baltimore    0  13   0   .000

Next week: In a battle between the best team named after a sissy poem and the best team named after an American hero, who wins? You, the reader! (And the Browns.) Get excited for another lyrical edition of Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns, only 10 days away!

Let's go! Let's go! Happy Browns Preview to everybody! It's that time of the week again, dawg denizens! Actually it's not really that time of the week, but who's counting? Let us preview, shall we?

First, I remind you, as usual, that all statistics in this preview come from Football Outsiders' weekly DVOA reports. You may click here to read about how DVOA works.

Browns offense vs. Steelers defense:

           CLE offense  PIT defense
total DVOA   -15.8%       -10.6%
passing      -13.0%        -4.3%
rushing      -19.4%       -17.5%

The Browns offense had its best game of the season against Kansas City, and has now improved to 30th in the NFL, by DVOA. Of course, if Derek Anderson is indeed going to get the start on Thursday night, we're obviously going to be watching an unknown commodity. As I wrote the other day, Anderson's performance against the Chiefs tells us next to nothing. Perhaps the most significant positive we can take from that game, then, is the fact that Reuben Droughns was actually decent for once.

Not that Reuben is likely to have much success this time around--the Steelers defense is solid all around, ranking 8th by overall DVOA. However, their pass defense (ranked 9th) is weaker than their stellar run defense (ranked 3rd). Regarding the secondary I will say the same thing I said the last time these two teams were about to meet: the Steelers' starting cornerbacks are very bad. Pittsburgh ranks 31st in the league at defending passes to #1 receivers (48.5%) and 24th at defending passes to #2 receivers (19.9%). For a point of comparison, the Steelers rank 3rd in the league at defending passes to "other" wide receivers (-64,5%). We saw the Browns take advantage of this a little bit in their last meeting, in particular on one play in which Braylon Edwards abused Ike Taylor and ran up the right sideline for a 63-yard gain. Let's hope the Browns recognize this amazing opportunity once again--especially considering the fact that Troy Polamalu, probably the Steelers' best defensive back, has been declared out for Thursday's game. This is a game in which the Browns ought to pass, pass, and pass some more. Who knows, a couple of long bombs down the sideline might just be enough to overcome the obvious difference in overall talent between the Browns' O and the Steelers' D. Advantage: Steelers

Steelers offense vs. Browns defense:

           PIT offense  CLE defense
total DVOA    -2.1%         0.4%
passing        7.8%        -1.0%
rushing      -14.3%         2.0%

The Browns defense surely played poorly against the Chiefs last weekend, but lest we forget, the Chiefs have a great offense. DVOA certainly knows this, which is why the Browns still rank 15th in the NFL in defensive DVOA. The pass defense has slipped a little (to 12th), but the run defense actually improved since last week (they now rank 20th). Hopefully, the Browns secondary will be able to get back on the horse as Leigh Bodden continues to heal (he's currently listed as probable).

It will help, too, that the Steelers' #1 receiver, Hines Ward, has been declared out for the game. Despite popular opinion, the strength of the Steelers offense (which ranks 16th in overall DVOA) is the passing game, and Ward has been an effective target (with a team-leading 12.2 receiving DPAR and a 4.4% DVOA). Ben Roethlisberger's most effective targets on a per-play basis, however, have actually been #2 receiver Santonio Holmes (13.8% DVOA) and tight end Heath Miller (15.5%). Of course, the most crucial factor for the Browns is whether Roethlisberger himself plays well. This season he has been wildly inconsistent. We even saw it three weeks ago in Cleveland, as his first half DPAR of -11.2 was only slightly less remarkable than his second half DPAR of 13.1. It's very rare for a quarterback to rack up either 10 or -10 DPAR in one half, yet Roethlisberger accomplished both feats in a single game! Anyway, this matchup is a close one, but I'll say Slight advantage: Browns

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns   Steelers
total DVOA                5.0%     -6.3%
FG kicking                0.5      -4.5
CLE kickoff vs. PIT KR    2.1      -2.2
CLE KR vs. PIT kickoff   11.6      -8.2
CLE punt vs. PIT PR       3.5      -9.1
CLE PR vs. PIT punt       4.4      -3.6

The Browns special teams are up to 3rd in the NFL in DVOA after a brief dip down to 4th. The Steelers, meanwhile, may have the only head coach in the league who used to be a special teams coordinator (in Cleveland, no less), but in 2006, they happen to have the worst special teams in all the land. The matchup I'm particularly excited for is that of the Browns' 2nd-ranked kickoff return team vs. the Steelers' 30th-ranked kickoff team. Last time around, Josh Cribbs returned one for a touchdown against these guys, and believe me when I tell you there is a very real possibility of that happening again. Huge advantage: Browns

All told, this is a winnable game for the Browns. They're still going to need a couple of lucky breaks, because the Steelers are the better team overall, but the Browns hold a clear edge in special teams and, I believe, a tenuous one on defense. Considering, too, that both Troy Polamalu and Hines Ward will not play, I think the Browns have got a decent shot. Enjoy the game, everybody!

Let's see here... the defense was, let's say, unspectacular. The special teams did nothing. Oh my LeBron!! The Browns won a game... with their offense!! [Cue Hallelujah chorus.]

In fact, for the first time in a long time, I have no complaints about the Browns' offensive performance in a game. Kudos to the offensive line, for giving both quarterbacks plenty of time to throw. It was like the complete opposite of last week. Kudos to both Frye and Anderson for making good on their extra time in the pocket. Kudos to Joe Jurevicius, who caught 6 of 8 passes (and should have been awarded a touchdown on one of the incompletes), all 6 of which were for first downs. Kudos to Reuben Droughns and Jason Gomillion Wright, for their tremendous success as receiving targets. It's raining kudos!

Of course, now (or for the next week at least), we're going to have to hear that favorite phrase of the Cleveland media, "quarterback controversy", over and over. It's a Cleveland holiday tradition! My view for the time being is this: Frye has been so bad this season that, under normal circumstances, I'd be all for seeing what Derek Anderson can do. Believe me, right now I'm a huge Derek Anderson fan. But let's not forget that Frye, too, played well against Kansas City before suffering his injury (in fact, Frye racked up a career-high 7.3 DPAR, to Anderson's 4.9). All we can say is that both players performed well under the same circumstances. That doesn't tell us much of anything. Personally, I'd lean towards letting Anderson play a little more before making any kind of real decision. (Update: it looks like Frye is going to miss a few games because of the wrist injury. Problem solved delayed.)

Now, let's get on to the regular items...

Play of the Week

Alex says: Derek Anderson's miracle run up the right sideline in overtime not only all but guaranteed a Browns victory but was also the team's longest rush of the season. In fact, in four other games (against the Bengals, Ravens, Broncos, and Bengals again), Anderson's one scramble would've made him the Browns leading rusher. How about that running game, folks? Anyways, I've been waiting to make a joke about when, exactly, Derek Anderson becomes the greatest Derek Anderson in Cleveland sports history for a while now. And although I really want to hand over the title to Football Derek, I can't just do it after one good game. Though I really want to.

Corey says: Anderson's game-icing scramble, like a great number of offensive plays this week, was most awesome. But equally awesome was Jason Gomillion Wright's 54-yard pass reception that keyed the first of the Browns' two late fourth-quarter touchdowns. Honorable mentions should go to Jason Gomillion Wright's other touchdown-keying pass reception (at the end of the first half, setting the Browns up at the 1-yard line), and Charlie Frye's touchdown pass to Braylon Edwards on the game's opening drive.

Player of the Week

Alex says: Corey pointed out in this week's preview that the Chiefs shut down #1 receivers but struggle against basically everyone else. Hence Braylon Edwards's relatively quiet game and Joe Jurevicius's fine performance. Joe pulled in six of the eight passes that came his way--with each reception resulting in a first down. Moreover, one of the incompletions came when Jurevicius caught a touchdown but was pushed out of bounds in midair. Fun fact: every single flea flicker attempted by the Browns this season has been thrown to Jurevicius... even though both were this week.

Corey says: I'm going with Derek Anderson. He had never thrown a pass in the NFL before, but ended up giving us perhaps the most exciting performance of the season so far. As I've said already, I'm a little wary of those people who are prepared to crown Anderson the second coming of Kelly Holcomb, because honestly, we're talking about an extremely insignificant sample size at this point, but for today--and today only--Anderson is the king.

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"It helps to see when we're struggling at times why we're struggling. Seeing the game has been a good thing for me." --Derek Anderson

You can't fault Anderson for droning on why being on the bench is a good thing and helps build character. What else is he supposed to say? "No man, sitting on the bench sucks. Coach is an idiot. You all saw what happened out there today. I should've been starting the whole time. You don't learn jack sittin' on the bench." The Browns as a team seem like a bunch of robots in interviews--everyone always gives the company line. I used to blame the coaches for brainwashing the players, and then the players for being boring. But now, I think it's the fault of the media for throwing mindless softball questions.

Corey says:

"We realize from a game like this, that when you start winning, when you put a blue-collar effort on the field, the fans are going to get behind us." --Joe Jurevicius

Apparently, winning is a blue collar thing to do. Losing is so white collar, I always say. Also, I'd love to know, if a team won in a decidedly non-blue collar kind of way--say, they beat a bad team by 55 points by throwing all kinds of finesse-type long passes and trick plays, would the fans then not get behind them?

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: Since Phil Dawson's 43-yard onside kick late in the fourth quarter didn't go quite as planned, the highlight of the afternoon from those specialest of teams has to be Dawson's game winner. (I was tempted to write "Human Phil", but at this point, who knows who's showing up anymore? Suddenly, Robot Phil is Human Phil and Human Phil is Borg Phil and we're all just very confused.) Some of the more vocal members of the New York City Browns Backers were incensed that the Browns chose to give the ball to Jason Wright two times while in field goal range. While not incensed, I too question this play-calling, though I can imagine a couple explanations: (1) Phil prefers kicking from the left hashmark. This is feasible, but doesn't explain handoff #2. (2) Phil needed more time to warm up. Granted, it was cold out, but shouldn't he have been warming up as soon as the Browns got the ball? All of this speculation is silly now, so let's just celebrate that he made the kick.

Corey says: I always think kickers get too much credit for making game-winning kicks (especially Adam Vinatieri)... as if the kicker was the one really responsible for winning the game... even though all he did was make a kick he already makes 90% of the time anyway. But I digress. My Special Teams Moment of the Week is the Dave Zastudil punt in the third quarter that was downed by Brodney Pool at the Kansas City 1-yard line. It was perfectly executed. Sure, the Chiefs went on to mount a 99-yard drive and take a 14 point lead, but still, the punt team did a great job on that play.

Henry Hynoski Memorial Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: Somehow the offensive line was not a complete disaster this week. The offense gained a season-high 5.2 yards per carry and the quarterbacks were only sacked once. Charlie Frye did get knocked around a bit in the first half, but Charlie has a knack for "escaping" pressure into more pressure. Derek Anderson, though, went relatively untouched in the second half and overtime. Therefore my Obscure Brown of the Week is offensive lineman Kelly Butler, who filled in for the indisposed Ryan Tucker at right tackle. Like any Obscure Brown worth his weight, Kelly has an interesting middle name: Don. Not Donald, but Don.

Corey says: Quick, who's the second-fattest defensive player on the Browns roster? Why, it's my Obscure Brown of the Week, defensive lineman J'Vonne Parker, #69, the pride of Scotlandneck, NC. Listed at 323 pounds, J'Vonne is second only to Ted Washington among Browns defenders in terms of gross tonnage, and hey, that's gotta be worth something! Great job, J'Vonne!

Fashion Item of the Week

Alex says: It's December football in Cleveland and time to break out the orange parkas! Now that's what I'm talking about! Basically I have nothing else to add. Except that I love Brownie and orange parkas.

Corey says: I don't usually cross over into the other team's wardrobe room unless it's to point out ugly and ridiculous the Bengals' uniforms are, but I would like to take a moment to recognize the beauty of the Kansas City Chiefs' away uniform socks. That's right--they're striped! Someone in K.C. knows how to design a good sock! (And yes, I will continue to obsess over striped socks week after week until my voice is heard! Heard, I say!)

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: Among the many stupid things uttered by Randy Cross during the telecast, he insisted on referring to the Chiefs offensive gameplan as "Hermanball", as though it was common practice. This is insulting on multiple levels. Firstly, adding the suffix "-ball" to a coach's name is just stupid. If we consider "Martyball" to be the "Watergate" of "-ball"-isms, then "Hermanball" is like "Plamegate" or "Foleygate". Secondly, who has ever heard of "Hermanball" before? I did a little research and found there are 26,500 results in Google for "Martyball", 1,430 for "Tresselball", 367 for "Dungyball", 232 for "Cowherball", 154 for "Martzball", 26 for "Sabanball", 15 for "Gibbsball", and only 2 for "Hermanball". And thirdly, even if we accept "Hermanball" as a real concept, what exactly does it mean? What does the Chiefs offense do differently that needs to be entailed in this neologism? It looks to me like their offense is pretty vanilla but effective. This needs to stop.

Corey says: I'm inclined to go with Randy Cross, too. He may (key word may) be the worst color analyst in football today. I especially hate "Cross Talk" (ie: Randy's keys to the game) because it's always way off. This week? The keys were (I'm paraphrasing) "establish the run" (uhh, not exactly...) and something called "T.O.B.P." which I think was meant to indicate that the Chiefs get a lot of turnovers. Except that the Chiefs rank 16th in the league in turnovers per drive (actually, they probably rank lower after this week's game). I could pick on just about any asinine statement Cross made during the game--this one just happened to strike me as especially wrong and stupid.

Number of the Week

Alex says: 7.6, the total rushing and receiving DPAR of Reuben Droughns this week. Shockingly, Droughns was actually the second-most valuable running back in the NFL by DPAR on Sunday. I find this surprising in two ways. First of all, by the second half, the game had morphed into a shootout and the offense only rushed on occasion. And second of all, it's been well documented here that Droughns had been pretty terrible this season. But, of course, there are explanations for both of these anomalies. Reuben accumulated a lot of value through the passing game. Since Kansas City concentrated on Edwards and Winslow, this left the backs (and Joe Jurevicius) open. Also, the offensive line didn't suck. I can't explain that, but I know that Droughns didn't have a carry where he lost yardage and converted all the times the Browns handed it to him in short yardage.

Corey says: 12.2, the total combined passing and rushing DPAR put up by the Browns' two quarterbacks on Sunday. Put them together, and you get one of the top QBs in football (for one week)! Part of this is the fact that both Charlie and Derek were efficient with their passes, able to convert third downs, and so on. But part of it is the fact that, coming into the game, Kansas City had a top-ranked defense. However you slice it, it was a great day to be a Browns QB. Even Ken Dorsey did an excellent, excellent job of holdin' that clipboard.

Moral Standings

The Browns' uplifting performance against the Chiefs is actually worth a season-high 3.2 Pythagorean moral wins, but alas, for the purposes of our regular moral standings, it only counts as one. Elsewhere, the Bengals cruised to an easy moral victory over the pathetic Ravens, while the Steelers morally eked by the Buccaneers for their third MW of the season.

            MW  ML  MT    pct
Cleveland   12   0   0  1.000
Cincinnati   6   6   0   .500
Pittsburgh   3   8   1   .292
Baltimore    0  13   0   .000

Next week: Sunday's comin' early this week, as the U.S. Department of Calendar Affairs, working closely with the NFL, has decided to make an unprecedented one-time day swap. Thus, the Browns' rousing destruction of the Pittsburgh Steelers is now only 72 hours away! Join us as we scoff at this obvious attempt to disrupt the normal flow of our blog, on a very special Friday edition of "Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns"!

Football shmootball. In case you haven't noticed--and you definitely haven't if you only read our blog--the Cavaliers have been playing regular season games for quite a while now. Weird, isn't it? Apparently, they're 10-6, which is good enough for "Who cares, there are 66 games left" in the Eastern Conference. I could phone it in here and write what I've written many times before in this space: LeBron James is amazing, Drew Gooden is criminally underrated, Eric Snow stinks, and so on. Instead, though, I'll look at some of the surprises of this young season.

Zydrunas Ilgauskas has continued a scary trend from the past postseason and his production has fallen off quite a bit. Z's propensity for turnovers has shot up (11.9 TO-r in 2005 to 17.5 in 2006) and his shooting efficiency has dropped (.506 eFG% to .450). Thankfully, I'm only judging on a sample of 410 minutes--which is just about meaningless. Although, John Hollinger predicted a sudden drop-off in Ilgauskas's output anytime during the next few seasons in Pro Basketball Forecast 2005. I think Ilgauskas's decline is for real, but I have a hunch he'll push up his numbers by the end of the season. He's still one of the top centers in the East.

Mike Brown has already given up on David Wesley as an actual guard in the NBA. This isn't so surprising unto itself, but rather that it only took around twelve games to figure out. Kudos are in order for Coach Brown. I've been critical of his strange player rotations before, but it's refreshing that he won't kowtow to the veterany-goodness that Wesley is so chock full of. Unfortunately, Shannon Brown has been pretty bad in replacement so far. Though, Shannon is clearly the lesser of two evils at this point.

Conventional NBA statistics rate the Cavaliers offense as 19th in the league and the defense as 6th. However, ranking teams solely on points per game is misguided in obvious ways. Unlike in baseball, the chances a team has to score in a game aren't fixed--some teams play at a faster pace and thus have more opportunities to score. The Cavaliers play at a pretty slow pace (7th slowest in the NBA), which should lead to an underrating of the offense and an overrating of the defense.

Not to pick on Brian Windhorst, but he recently named the offense as the root of the team's temporary struggles. However, the Cavaliers score 107.8 points per 100 possessions--good enough for 10th in the NBA. The defense gives up 104.6 per 100 possessions, which lands them at 7th best. It's true that the defense is performing better than the offense, but the margin isn't that big. It's just that the Cavaliers offense is given so few possessions to work with, they often won't put up big point totals.

I don't have any clear-cut conclusions, but upon further examination, the success on both sides of the court comes from excellent rebounding. The Cavaliers are 3rd in the NBA at collecting offensive rebounds and the best when it comes to keeping the opponent from getting second chances. And you know who has been the best rebounder on the team so far this season? That's right: Drew Gooden, with Zydrunas coming in a close second. If there's anyone deserving of 35 minutes per game (besides LeBron, of course), it's not Larry Hughes. It's Drew Gooden.

Another week, another Browns preview. The Browns need to beat the Chiefs by at least 24 points in order to even the all-time head-to-head point differential. No problem, right?

Before we delve into the stats, I remind you that the numbers in this preview are borrowed from Football Outsiders' weekly DVOA reports, and that you can read all about how DVOA works by clicking here.

Browns offense vs. Chiefs defense:

           CLE offense   KC defense
total DVOA   -22.5%        -4.0%
passing      -20.1%         6.8%
rushing      -25.6%       -14.6%

I'm getting tired of talking about how horrible the Browns offense is, both in terms of passing and rushing. Charlie Frye has been the second-least valuable quarterback in the NFL (-18.9 DPAR, leading only Andrew Walter), and the fifth-worst on a per-play basis (-24.5% DVOA). Reuben Droughns has been the absolute least valuable running back in the NFL (-11.5 DPAR), and the second-worst on a per-play basis (-30.0% DVOA, leading only Reggie Bush). And the only reason I highlight these players is because, as skill position players, they have DVOA and DPAR associated with them. The truth is that these horrible numbers reflect badly on everyone, especially the players responsible for run blocking and pass protection, be they linemen, fullbacks, running backs, or whatever.

So, to summarize, the Browns offense blows goats. The passing game, however, blows slightly fewer goats than the running game. This is at least preferable to the other way around--perhaps even more so this week, as the Chiefs defense, while strong overall, is soft against the pass. They rank 8th in run defense DVOA, but 20th in pass defense DVOA. More specifically, they seem to have an issue with depth in the secondary, as they rank first in defending passes to #1 receivers (-39.5% DVOA--sorry, Braylon), but dead last in defending passes to "other" (ie: non-#1 or #2) receivers (65.9% DVOA). How the Browns can exploit this, I'm not sure. Dennis Northcutt (-28.6% DVOA) and Josh Cribbs (-43.2% DVOA) have both been pretty awful as receivers. Perhaps the solution is to let Kellen Winslow line up wide more often than usual. At this point, it's worth a shot. Advantage: Chiefs

Chiefs offense vs. Browns defense:

            KC offense  CLE defense
total DVOA     4.4%        -2.3%
passing       18.0%        -5.9%
rushing       -6.8%         2.3%

The poor showing against Cincinnati was especially troubling for the Browns offense, because the Bengals have a pretty bad defense. The Browns defense, however, has less to worry about, because the Bengals offense is legitimately that good. Thus, the ratings for Oshinowo's Eleven remain about the same this week. They currently rank 15th in the NFL in defensive DVOA. The pass defense is ranked 9th, while the run defense is ranked 22nd.

They will have their hands full for the second week in a row, however, because Kansas City has a formidable offense. Overall DVOA ranks them 10th in the NFL, but they are probably better than that. Curious about a comment Aaron Schatz made this week about how the Chiefs have played like a completely different team over the last 6 weeks than they did over the first 6 weeks, I e-mailed him for some numbers:

                     Weeks 1-6   Weeks 7-12
passing DVOA (rank)   6.1% (12)   31.1% (6)
rushing DVOA (rank) -41.1% (32)   17.4% (3)

The Chiefs' offensive improvement over the last 6 weeks has been dramatic, especially in the rushing department, as you can see. Running back Larry Johnson, who a few weeks ago was one of the worst backs in the NFL by DPAR and DVOA, now ranks 7th by DPAR (21.2) and 20th by DVOA (3.5%). And actually, Johnson's backup Michael Bennett has been even more effective on a per-play basis. His rushing DVOA of 52.4% would be the best of any running back in the NFL, except that his 25 carries aren't enough to place him on Football Outsiders' official leaderboard. Bearing this in mind, I'm inclined to say that stopping the run--something the Browns don't do particularly well--should be a little bit more of a priority than usual. And while the Chiefs' passing game has also been great, we must consider the fact that starting quarterback Trent Green (0.0 DPAR, -13.2% DVOA) hasn't been anywhere near as effective in the passing game as was his backup, Damon Huard (52.6 DPAR, 35.7% DVOA). That, plus the fact that the Browns have a pretty good pass defense, leads me to think the biggest threat represented by Kansas City this week is their ground game--despite what the overall DVOA totals suggest. Slight advantage: Chiefs

Special teams matchups:

                       Browns  Chiefs
total DVOA               5.4%    2.3%
FG kicking              -0.1    -4.7
CLE kickoff vs. KC KR    1.3    -1.6
CLE KR vs. KC kickoff   12.0     4.0
CLE punt vs. KC PR       3.7     3.6
CLE PR vs. KC punt       5.0     7.9

With a poor showing across the board last weekend, our heroes have fallen to 4th in the NFL in DVOA. What started as a stellar season for Phil Dawson and his entourage of look-alikes is quickly turning into a season to forget. The Browns now rank 16th in the league in field goal kicking and 24th in kicking off (which, of course, isn't entirely Phil's fault). Josh Cribbs and company still rank 1st in the NFL in returning kickoffs, though. And Dave Zastudil and company still rank 6th in the NFL in punting. The Chiefs, for their part, are pretty solid on special teams overall, ranking 10th. Their strongest unit is the punt team, which ranks 2nd in the league, and their weakest unit is the field goal kicking team, which ranks 26th. Slight advantage: Browns

You don't need DVOA to tell you the Browns are out-matched by the Chiefs. Still, anything can happen, and as we've seen, the Chiefs are not the most consistent of teams. Here's hoping we actually get to cheer about something this Sunday. Go Browns!