The holiday season is now upon us, and no doubt you're wondering what to get your loved ones for LeBron Day. Lucky for you, I have decided to grade each of Cleveland's major shopping destinations in several key areas. I hope this guide comes in handy as you make all of your holiday selections!

Cavaliers Team Shop

Jersey selection:



The variety here is decent: you can buy the jerseys of Larry Hughes, Anderson Varejão, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and several others. But let's not kid ourselves: it's all about LeBron. You can buy LeBron jerseys in red, you can buy them in white, you can buy them in blue, in pink, in orange, in gray, in replica style, in authentic style, in kid's sizes, in women's sizes... even in Ted Washington's sizes. Frankly, there is no excuse for any self-respecting Clevelander--nay, any self-respecting Earthling--not to own a LeBron jersey (or three), and the Cavs team shop is the place to go if you need one (or three). Grade: A

For the ladies:



You will notice a pattern if you visit enough team shops. "Sportswear for ladies" apparently means "the same stuff, but pink!" The Cavs team shop offers the usual pink LeBron jerseys and such, along with a few more traditional women's sweatshirts and jerseys in normal Cavs colors. And for you newlyweds out there, be sure to check out the Cavs-branded ladies' underwear! Talk about tasteful! Grade: C+

Historical items:



The Cavs are currently pimping their mid-80's orange throwbacks, which means there is plenty of historical merchandise available, but it's all of the blue and orange variety. Not that I mind--I like the mid-80's look quite a bit--but I have two quibbles. It would be nice if they were still offering the yellow throwbacks from a few seasons ago, or at least some kind of older wine and gold stuff. Also: no merchandise is available that features former players, only historical designs. Grade: B+

Unusual items:



The Cavs team shop has a ton of stuff, though I'm not sure I would call much of it "unusual". At literally any team shop in America, you'll be able to find team-branded shot glasses, coffee mugs, keychains, playing cards, waste baskets (for some reason), and of course apparel, so it's the little, zany things that really set the good team shops apart. The Cavs have a couple of interesting items, like the curly wig pictured above (though you can't buy an Anderson Varejão wig like the ones they handed out last year), and the basketball hoop table, but that's about it. Grade: D

All in all, the Cavs have a very solid team shop--lacking, perhaps, in creativity, but stuffed to the gills with LeBron stuff, which, honestly, is all you need.

Indians Team Shop

Jersey selection:



The Indians' jersey selection is somewhat weak. They offer most of the big ones, but all told, they only have five different players' jerseys for sale. I realize that they're in the offseason and are probably going to wait until spring before deciding which jerseys to load up on, but for right now, all you can get are Hafner, Sizemore, Martinez, Peralta, and Blake jerseys. What, no Sabathia? Also, you can only buy jerseys in the standard, home white design--no road grays, no weekend alternates, no red throwbacks, etc. On top of that, they try to make their selection look bigger than it really is by mixing the jerseys in with various jersey-inspired T-shirt designs. A T-shirt, of course, is not even close to being the same thing. Grade: C

For the ladies:



Once again, you can find all kinds of pink apparel, plus a limited selection of apparel in normal Indians colors. Pink is nice, I suppose, but if I know my ladies (and I don't), they want variety. In other words, so long as you're going to mess around with the normal color scheme for the sake of women's fashion, why stop at pink? Grade: C+

Historical items:



The selection of historically-inspired items at the Indians team shop is rather pathetic. There are a couple of commemorative kick-knacks like baseballs or keychains or whatever, plus a little display of Bob Feller-related items, but in terms of apparel, all I could find were the two T-shirts pictured above. So, for all you historically-minded Indians fans who want to show the world how racist you are, come on down to The Jake for one of these hideous designs! Grade: D-

Unusual items:



The Indians team shop has a pretty decent selection of unusual items. My personal favorites are the various Indians monkeys (pictured above), which are available in blue, pink, red, and "Slider". There is also a suitably varied selection of bobbleheads, figurines, wall hangings, and the like. Grade: B

Overall, the Indians have a very nice team shop with a very wide selection. The selection, however, is mostly of blasé, unspecific apparel like T-shirts, polo shirts, and hats. Of course, I still recommend a visit, even though it's the offseason. Odds are you were going to buy your dad a polo shirt anyway. Why not make it an Indians one?

Browns Team Shop

Jersey selection:



With so many players to choose from, a football team shop should offer a dizzyingly wide array of jerseys. Frankly, I wasn't optimistic about finding anything beyond the typical Frye, Winslow, Droughns, and Edwards jerseys. To the Browns' credit, though, I was able to find Wimbley, Davis, McGinest, Cribbs and Jurevicius jerseys in addition to the aforementioned ones. This is still not enough, if you ask me, but it's adequate. My strongest recommendation, of course, would be to go online and order a custom Leigh Bodden jersey (same price!), but if you happen to be around the stadium, you'll probably find a jersey that suits you at the team shop. Grade: B

For the ladies:



As you might expect, there is women's apparel in pink, and of course in orange and brown, but there is also plenty of merchandise in other colors. The Browns also offer things like purses and women's accessories in addition to the usual shirts, jerseys, and pants. Your best gal probably won't look as stylish at the Bone Lady, but she just might come close. Grade: A-

Historical items:



The Browns are in the middle of a season of historical reminiscence, what with the minor changes to the uniforms, the throwbacks last Sunday, and the hideous 60th anniversary patches. Thus, the team shop now devotes a portion of one wall to historical items. Among the things you can buy are throwback jerseys for Jim Brown and Dante Lavelli. The selection is way too small, but the fact that these two jerseys are even available is pretty cool. Grade: B-

Unusual items:



The Browns do it up right. They offer Browns cookie jars (pictured), Browns piggy banks, Browns camping tents, Browns video game controllers, Browns model cars, Browns teddy bears, Browns tailgating accessories, Browns blow-up chairs, and much more. Needless to say, the selection is quite wide. I applaud you, Browns team shop inventory guy! Grade: A

All things considered, the Browns have the best team shop in Cleveland. While it is a little Spartan in its decor and feel, it has the best overall selection of merchandise. Not that the Cavs and Indians team shops aren't nice too--'cause they are! If you're really struggling for gift ideas, head downtown... you can visit all three team shops in the span of about 40 minutes (I did).

Happy holidays, everybody! LeBron Day is only 31 days away!!!

Okay, so we're a little behind schedule, but did you really want to relive that fiasco of a ballgame so soon anyway? As was the case when the Steelers beat the Browns 41-0 in 2005, or when the Browns gained just 17 yards of total offense against the Bills in 2004, I'm really struggling to force myself to write "Born and Raised" this week. In fact, allow me to dispense with the pleasantries right here. Let's just get this over with:

Play of the Week

Alex says: The Browns' longest gain of the day came on a nifty pass to Dennis Northcutt. Northcutt was streaking up the right sideline and Charlie Frye threw a great pass, hitting him in stride. Northcutt couldn't break free from cornerback Jonathan Joseph though, and was brought down for a 43-yard gain. If the offense was going to put up points against the Bengals, this play was probably their best shot. And, not surprisingly, they couldn't capitalize. Three plays and seven yards later, Phil Dawson missed a 48-yarder.

Corey says: Horrible as the entire offense was on Sunday, the 43-yard pass to Northcutt was pretty great. Northcutt had been among the worst receivers in the entire NFL entering this game (I believe he was 3rd-worst among all NFL players in terms of receiving DPAR), but because of this one play he should at least rise out of the bottom 10.

Player of the Week

Alex says: Finding positive performances from this week is like finding a needle in a haystack. Fortunately, that needle is 6'4" and pretty loud. (I realize that was a terrible joke, but when the Browns play this bad, my jokes are allowed to be this bad.) Kellen Winslow caught six of the eight passes intended for him. He was their best option on third downs for the game. Both times Winslow was thrown to on third down, he earned a new set of downs. Considering the um... "technique" displayed by Charlie Frye, it's all the more astounding that a receiver--whose output is almost entirely dependent on the quarterback--could be the team's most valuable player.

Corey says: Uhh... can I pass? How about Dave Zastudil? He seemed to, uhh, not suck that badly. Congratulations, Dave!

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"You can't just keep blaming the coaches, it eventually falls on the players." --Charlie Frye

So would that be players like, I don't know, Charlie Frye? The doom and gloom surrounding the Browns this week is clearly overreaction, but Charlie's words bring up a dilemma. Is the team struggling because the players are inherently bad, or is it poor coaching? If the players are just untalented, then isn't it the front office's responsibility to build a more skilled roster? But if the coaching has been subpar, then blame should again be laid at the feet of the front office for poor hiring. I'm just speculating here, because I don't think it would be fair to run Phil Savage out of town just yet. It's hard to be patient when your favorite team lays an egg like the Browns did this week, but I still think this team is deserving of a little more patience.

Corey says:

"Obviously, I'm disappointed we couldn't make it happen. I talked to fans in the first row before the game and told them, 'When I go in, don't hit me, just throw me back out.' They were agreeable. We're in Cleveland, but they do love 85." --Chad Johnson, on his plan to leap into the Dawg Pound if he scored a touchdown

Frankly, I too am a little disappointed that we didn't get to see Ocho Cinco Ochenta y Cinco leap into the Dawg Pound, if for no other reason than extreme curiosity at what would have happened. I would like to correct Mr. Johnson on one point, however. Unless you're talking about the number of pierogi on their plates, the people of Cleveland do not love 85. I hate to break it to you, Chad, but there you go.

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: Any bum off the street could've told you that the Browns offense and defense would struggle. At this point in the season, that's almost a given. Special teams, however, are a completely different matter. The Browns' usual area of dominance turned into one of subordination on Sunday, and they can only blame themselves. Josh "MTV" Cribbs had his touchdown return called back; Phil Dawson missed his only field goal attempt; Dennis Northcutt's one punt return went for one yard. But oh yeah, they did block an extra point in the third quarter. Suck on that, Cincinnati.

Corey says: Firstly, regarding the Mason Unck penalty that nullified Josh Cribbs' opening touchdown return, both the radio and television announcers commented that the penalty took place behind the play--that is, after Cribbs had already passed by--and that therefore, it was unnecessary and boneheaded. My own study of the game film, however, has led me to conclude that the penalty happened before Cribbs passed by and thus could have been necessary to keep a would-be tackler off of Cribbs. At any rate, great as Cribbs' return was, it did not count, so I too will go with the only other decent special teams play of the day: Simon Fraser's blocked extra point in the third quarter. Woo.

Jack LeVeck Memorial Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: With the offense struggling to no end, head coach Romeo Crennel and offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson finally decided to pull out all the stops and unleash their secret weapon. I'm talking, of course, about #71, offensive tackle Kelly Butler. Butler took over for starting right tackle Ryan Tucker at halftime, and the results were--simply put--astounding. In the first half, the offense gained 107 yards, but in the second, they steamrolled their way to 69 yards. Whatever Butler was doing, it clearly worked!

Corey says: I'm going with DB Justin Hamilton, #25. In previous weeks, with Hamilton healthy, the Browns secondary was dominant. But this week, with Hamilton sidelined due to a back injury, the Browns secondary was meticulously picked apart by Carson Palmer and company. Clearly, Hamilton is the keystone! Get well soon, Justin!

Fashion Item of the Week

Alex says: Intrepid readers of the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times, knowing that the Browns wore throwbacks this weekend, ought to know exactly what our Fashion Items of the Week will be. But I'm going to throw a changeup and discuss the Bengals here. It's well-documented that Cincinnati's jerseys are ugly and an affront to LeBron. So, on a day when the Browns kicked it "old school", if you will, couldn't the Bengals have done the same? Preferably they'd have worn their "classic" jersey (which is a tremendous rip-off of the Browns, like most things in Bengals history), though they could also have gone with the Boomer Esiason-era duds and I would've been happy. Their lack of throwback jerseys is mystifying for two reasons: (1) their normal jerseys are so ugly, the team should jump at the chance to not wear them whenever possible, and (2) I theorize the Bengals picked such an "extreme" design from the misguided belief that it would bolster merchandise sales with the youth. Since throwbacks are so popular now, wearing them on gameday, you'd think, would bring in extra sales at the Bengals team shop.

Corey says: And here I was, all set to post a picture of LeBron in His awesome new blue and orange warm-up suit, when the Browns drop a bombshell like this. Throwbacks! Who would have thought it possible?! Of course, I am all in favor of these excellent throwbacks, and I think you know the reason why--striped socks! I can't express how much it warms my heart to know that the striped socks aren't entirely dead. Hooray!

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: Cincinnati cornerback Kevin Kaesviharn, for making two interceptions against the Browns. First of all, I always assumed Kaesviharn existed merely so he could be embarrassed in Browns highlights. For example, in Week 2, Braylon Edwards literally dragged Kevin twenty yards or so into the endzone for yet another Browns touchdown, literally! I also have a distinct memory of William Green delivering one of the all-time great stiff arms in Browns history on Kaesviharn in 2002 or 2003. Ah, memories.

Corey says: Plain Dealer "reporter" Bill Livingston, or the team of monkeys he employs to write his headlines for him. The front page of yesterday's PD featured the headline "Out of the Frye-in plan, into the mire." I am usually all for a good pun, but BOO-URNS to you, Bill Livingston. P.S. Your writing is also crappy and you're flat-out wrong most of the time.

Number of the Week

Alex says: 2.8, or the average number of yards the Bengals gained per carry. This is actually worse than the Browns average of 3.5 yards per carry for the game. No critic would disagree that Cincinnati's passing game did the Browns in on Sunday, but I just want to point out that the Bengals didn't waste time "establishing the run" or anything. After three Rudi Johnson carries in the first four snaps, 15 of their next 21 plays were passes. Of course, this is possible when Carson Palmer throws for 8.6 yards per attempt. Unfortunately, at this point, I can't even suggest that Browns emphasize the pass. When neither running nor passing works, something is fundamentally wrong.

Corey says: -11.6, Charlie Frye's overall DPAR for Week 12--the worst such total in the entire NFL. Take a look at Aaron Schatz's comment from his Week 12 Quick Reads column at Fox Sports: "What's scary is that Frye scores as the worst quarterback of the week even though I coded two of his four interceptions as 'Hail Mary' passes, meaning that they were treated like normal incomplete passes instead of turnovers." I would also point out that Cincinnati's defense previously rated about 10% worse than average, so Frye's DPAR was actually helped out by the opponent adjustment, and he was still worst in the league. Scary indeed.

Moral Standings

Through the first 11 weeks of the season, the Browns had been dominant, morally. In Week 12, they put up their worst moral showing since Christmas Eve 2005, but still barely eked by win a moral victory, thanks primarily to--what else--striped socks. Remember that, just as in the real-life standings, not all wins are created the same. This one could really have gone either way. The Browns are going to need to shape up pretty quick if they expect their morally undefeated season to continue. With Cincinnati's moral loss, however, the Browns have now clinched the moral division, and you know what that means--moral playoffs!!! Elsewhere in the division, Pittsburgh absolutely obliterated the morally bankrupt Ravens, whose cheating, lying, stealing, murdering, and complaining continues to keep them atop the "actual" standings--for now.

            MW  ML  MT    pct
Cleveland   11   0   0  1.000
Cincinnati   5   6   0   .455
Pittsburgh   2   8   1   .227
Baltimore    0  12   0   .000

Next week: The Browns earn a hard-fought victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, as Phil Dawson kicks a game-winning field goal with :00 on the clock, thanks to an unfortunate helmet toss by Chiefs linebacker Kawika Mitchell. We'll be right here to recap and/or gloat--and who knows, we might just publish on time! Join us for another hair-raising edition of "Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns"!

First of all, let me apologize for the lack of content on our blog recently. It's been a busy two weeks for me, between moving into a new apartment and hosting an out-of-town guest. Alex, of course, has no excuse. Please direct any and all irate comments to him. (For those who have asked, we'll try to get some Cavs coverage up this week--finally!)

Now. Let's talk Browns. In his power rankings this week on FOX Sports, Aaron Schatz points out that the Browns currently have the highest differential between actual and weighted DVOA of any NFL team. Regular DVOA rates them 7.5% worse than average (19th in the NFL), while weighted DVOA, which considers recent events slightly more relevant than those in the distant past, rates the Browns only 5.8% worse than average (17th in the NFL, right behind teams like the Saints and Rams). As Aaron goes on to explain, this is because the Browns played their two worst games of the year (by DVOA) in Weeks 1 and 2.

Is this a reason for optimism? Perhaps. It may just be that we are examining these stats in the one week when they happened to peak suddenly, but it may also be that the Browns are a team on the rise, poised to shock the NFL in 2007 or sooner. Certainly, the defense has gotten better and better each week; the special teams are fabulous, and the offense... well, it still wasn't pretty last week, but it was better than what we've come to expect.

With that in mind, let us preview this epic battle with the Bengals. As always, the stats in this game preview are borrowed from this week's DVOA report on Football Outsiders. Click here for a detailed explanation of how DVOA works.

Browns offense vs. Bengals defense:

           CLE offense  CIN defense
total DVOA   -19.4%        10.4%
passing      -16.9%        12.3%
rushing      -22.6%         8.3%

The Browns offense now ranks 29th in the league by both regular and weighted DVOA. This is something of an accomplishment, as you know. In Week 11, Charlie Frye put up his best single-game DPAR total (4.0) since Week 4, and has now risen all the way to 36th in the NFL in quarterbacking DVOA! The running game is just about as bad as ever, but the passing game, now ranked 25th in the NFL, is beginning to look... let us say... on its way to being halfway decent someday.

It plays to the, uhh... "strength" of the Browns offense that the 27th-ranked Cincinnati defense struggles more mightily to stop the pass than to stop the run. And as if that weren't enough, the Bengals' biggest weakness is defending passes to tight ends (32.9% DVOA), in which they rank 30th in the NFL. Two things the Bengals defense does do well, however, are defend passes to #1 receivers (-7.2% DVOA, 9th in the NFL) and get interceptions (.103 per drive, also 9th in the NFL), so it may not be the best week for taking risks on long passes to Braylon Edwards. Slight advantage: Bengals

Bengals offense vs. Browns defense:

           CIN offense  CLE defense
total DVOA    15.3%        -5.8%
passing       24.9%       -13.2%
rushing        2.8%         3.7%

The ascendancy of Oshinowo's Eleven continues--they now rank 13th by DVOA, and 5th in pass defense DVOA. They are the best defense in the league at preventing passes to tight ends (-65.9% DVOA), 4th at preventing passes to #1 receivers (-14.0%), and 9th at preventing passes to #2 receivers (-13.1%). The Browns are also the 5th-best interception-grabbing team, as they average .110 picks per opponent drive.

The Bengals offense, by the way, is extremely strong in the passing game, so this will be a very interesting matchup indeed. Cincinnati ranks 3rd in overall offensive DVOA and 4th in passing DVOA. Carson Palmer ranks 4th in the league in passing DPAR, while Ocho Cinco Ochenta y Cinco ranks 3rd in the league in receiving DPAR thanks to a recent string of monster performances. One thing everyone is hoping to see is a rematch between Chad Johnson and the man who shut him down six ways to Sunday in 2005: Leigh Bodden. Recently, Chad admitted to the media that Bodden was one of the best corners he's ever faced. Alas, Leigh is still listed as questionable on the official injury report, but then, the way the Browns secondary has been performing in Leigh's absence, it may not matter that much. Slight advantage: Bengals

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns  Bengals
total DVOA               6.2%     1.8%
FG kicking               1.4      6.8
CLE kickoff vs. CIN KR   1.3     -9.0
CLE KR vs. CIN kickoff  12.3      6.9
CLE punt vs. CIN PR      2.6     -1.4
CLE PR vs. CIN punt      5.2      3.0

Each of the Browns special teams units took a tiny step back in Week 11... except for the kickoff return unit, which took a colossal leap forward, to rank 1st in the NFL. The Browns still rank 2nd in the NFL in special teams DVOA. The Bengals rank 10th, led by strong field goal kicking (2nd in the league) and kickoffs (6th in the league), but held back by weak return teams (29th in kickoff returns, 28th in punt returns). Advantage: Browns

The Bengals are the better team, to be sure, but the Browns are probably slightly better than their 3-7 record would suggest, and the Bengals' advantages on offense and defense are slight indeed. I would not be surprised if this turned out to be a close game. Enjoy it, Browns fans!

Football fans across the globe opening a newspaper this morning, looking for the score of the Browns-Steelers game, find themselves at the mercy of their local headline editor.

"Once again, Big Ben struck right on time." --The Associated Press
"Big Ben timely in comeback over Browns" --Calgary Sun
"Big Ben strikes right on time to 'push' Steelers to win" --Covers
"Big Ben rings up fourth-quarter rally to gong Browns" --Cleveland Plain Dealer

The bad puns need to stop. Please, for the children. I'll grant that Ben Roethlisberger is a pretty large man, so calling him "Big Ben" is acceptable. But is it necessary to force this nickname down our collective throat at every opportunity? Here's my tip to you headline writers out: You don't have to call Ben Roethlisberger "Big Ben" at all times, and neither do you have to force comparisons to the actual Big Ben. It's just common courtesy.

My personally favorite headline though has to be:

"Big Ben Rebounds, Leads Comeback Victory" --KDKA

Look, if you're going to talk about some Big Ben that "rebounds", you're obviously talking about Ben Wallace. There are two "Big Ben"s. One passes; one rebounds. But the Bulls didn't win last night, so that Big Ben could not have led any sort of comeback.

I'm sorry for not discussing on-field matters in the introduction, it's just a little too painful for now. Plus, we pick at open wounds for the rest of the post--and now I'm trying to keep my artificially high spirits.

Corey says: I just want to chime in here for a quick second. I won't have much time for writing this week, as I'm currently hosting an old friend from Japan and we're leaving for NYC first thing tomorrow (Monday) morning. Speaking of which, try explaining football to a foreigner some time. Saturday night I gave my friend a crash course--it was frustrating because I didn't know where to start. I ended up starting with the concepts of "offense" and "defense". I later realized I should have started with the concept of "plays" and how a play starts/ends. Anyway, by game time my friend understood well enough. After the game he told me the only things that didn't make sense were all the penalties. Which was a subject I wasn't about to dive into...



And now onto your regularly scheduled items:

Play of the Week

Alex says: Joey Porter has been an irritating thorn in the side of the Browns for a few seasons now. Besides occasionally decimating the offensive line, Porter is brash and a moron. To wit: Corey, Aaron (Official Friend of the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times), and I may be the only people who remember, but whilst heading to the locker room for halftime during the Browns' demolition at the hands of Pittsburgh last Christmas Eve, Porter looked directly into the camera and screamed homicidally, "Let's go! Let's go! ...Merry Christmas to everyone!" So, it warmed my heart to no end to see Kellen Winslow forcibly remove Porter from himself with a hand to the facemask on a third quarter reception. Hardly any player deserves an embarrassing stiff arm to the face more than Porter does.

Corey says: Because I'm pressed for time, in naming my Play of the Week, allow me to quote from my game preview from Friday: "The Browns should try picking on the Steelers' weak cornerbacks, as many other teams have done successfully. The Steelers struggle to defend passes to #1 receivers (37.9% DVOA, 30th in the NFL) and #2 receivers (17.6%, 22nd in the NFL), but do quite well against all the other types. If the Browns' offensive brain trust were smart, they'd focus on giving Ike Taylor and Deshea Townsend dizzy spells." This is exactly what happened on my choice for this week, Braylon Edwards' 63-yard catch and run down the right sideline. Braylon blew by the corner (whom I vaguely recall being Ike Taylor) faster than lighting. The Steelers were lucky that one of their safeties (he had a doofy haircut so I couldn't read the name on his jersey) was in position to chase Braylon down before he took it to the house; otherwise, it would have been a touchdown most easy.

Player of the Week

Alex says: Around halftime, I was thinking I'd be cute and name Ben Roethlisberger the Player of the Week. Get it? I am so clever. Then the fourth quarter happened, and now I'm struggling to come up with a good replacement. Over the past week my confidence in Charlie Frye took a major hit, starting with Aaron Schatz's comments on the Browns in the Week 10 DVOA Ratings and followed by Ned Macey's in Any Given Sunday, finishing with Macey's post on the Football Outsiders Fox Blog. In the face of such criticism, Frye's performance against a great defense is encouraging. He avoided the bone-headed, game-killing mistakes and even managed to throw the ball away at the right times. His performance was far from perfect and his stats aren't very impressive, but if the rest of 2006 is an extended audition for Mr. Frye, I consider this a good start.

Corey says: Eh, I guess I'll go with Daven Holly. I'm gradually climbing aboard this guy's bandwagon. He's no Leigh Bodden--no one is--but he has played as big a part as any other single player in the continued dominance of the secondary this season. His two picks this week mean he will finally begin to get some publicity, but really, he has been quite solid ever since Gary Baxter went down.

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"It was an NFL football game for 60 minutes. We won some of those battles, as you could see. They pulled it out in the end and started to drive the ball on us a little bit. But nothing really changed man. It's just that, course of the game, things change, schemes change." --Daven Holly

Wait a minute. Nothing really changed, then things change? What is Holly talking about? I feel guilty making my comments so short, but really, I'm at a loss for words.

Corey says:

"I can finally say that we put four quarters together." --Braylon Edwards

Which four quarters would those be, Braylon? They wouldn't happen to include the fourth quarter of this week's game, would they? Because that was a quarter in which the offense did the following: gain 6 yards before settling for a field goal, gain 2 yards before punting, and gain 35 yards before letting the game clock expire. Also in the fourth quarter, the defense did the following: allow 21 points in three Pittsburgh possessions. Ah, but Josh Cribbs had a kickoff return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. Whooooo!!!!! We FINALLY put four quarters together! U! S! A!... U! S! A!...

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: Do I even have to say it? Of course, I ask that question and then immediately describe the play. Josh "MTV" Cribbs had been "slumping" in recent weeks--meaning he hadn't reeled off a great return for three weeks or so--I was afraid his early season exploits were an aberration. I find it sad though that I had to wait a nerve-wracking period awaiting the what-seems-to-be-inevitable-to-the-Browns special teams penalty. It never came, and thus I could finally high five my brethren.

Corey says: Once again, allow me to quote from my game preview: "The other big matchup to look forward to is that of the Browns' 3rd-ranked kickoff return team vs. the Steelers' 27th-ranked kickoff team. Will this be the week Josh Cribbs finds the endzone? Perhaps--the Browns won't face a weaker kickoff team for the rest of the season (other than when they face the Steelers again, of course)." So, as you can see, I personally guaranteed you that Josh Cribbs would return a kickoff for a touchdown, and as usual, I was exactly right! Seriously, though, a quick review of the highlight reel shows that on this play, all but one Steeler was helpless to escape his blocker, so let's give some much deserved credit to all 11 members of the Browns' kickoff return team.

Bruce McGonnigal Memorial Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: Daven "Buster's" Holly had himself quite a day against the Steelers. The secondary had difficulty stopping the pass during the fourth quarter, but I'll give a pass to the individual players, for now. Pittsburgh kept throwing underneath the zone coverage and avoided drive-ending mistakes. I can even give Daven a pass for fumbling his second interception because the play was so awesome. If I were a bettin' man, I'd say that Holly was once a Steelers fan. He grew up in Clairton, Pennsylvania, which--if you remember your History of the Steel Industry class--was a company town for US Steel and is now a deserted wasteland. Clairton is also the setting for The Deer Hunter which coincidentally was filmed in Cleveland.

Corey says: Daven Holly has been starting for like two months, Alex. I think you're pushing your luck with that one. Anyway, am I the only one who feels that the Browns don't have any truly obscure players like they usually do this late in the season? I'm talking your Dyshod Carters, your Pete Hunters. Would it kill team management to call up Ulrich Winkler from the practice squad just to appease the good folks at one of the top Browns-related weblogs in the history of time and space? I think not. At any rate, my Obscure Brown of the Week is, uhh... Isaac Sowells. That is all.

Fashion Item of the Week

Alex says: Right now at the Cleveland Browns online Team Shop, you have your choice between seven distinct current Browns jerseys: Charlie Frye, Braylon Edwards, Reuben Droughns, Andra Davis, Kamerion Wimbley, Joe Jurevicius, and Willie McGinest. While this variety is a welcome change from recent seasons, when you could seemingly only find dreck like William Green and Quincy Morgan, I have one question: Where is Leigh Bodden? The heart and soul of the Browns--nay--the city of Cleveland, Leigh deserves a little more recognition. He's undoubtedly one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. But with injuries derailing a Pro Bowl bid, Bodden deserves some kind of recognition outside of this 'blog. So, how about it, Brown Team Shop? If you offer a Leigh Bodden jersey, I guarantee I'll buy one.

Corey says: A creative solution, if ever there was one, to an unfortunate problem:

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: Steve Tasker took the torch from Solomon Wilcots as "official Browns color analyst" for this week, and apparently "being an idiot" is part of the package. Among other great moments--like explaining why gaining nine yards on 1st-and-10 is a good thing (because even if you throw an incompletion on 2nd-and-1, you can still convert on 3rd-and-1! Amazing, I know)--Tasker described Jason Gomillion Wright, alumnus of Northwestern University, as a "proverbial double major." What, pray tell, is so "proverbial" about double majoring? Which proverb is Tasker actually referring to?

Corey says: Unlike my brother, I hate to give this award to Browns players. Nevertheless, Simon Fraser's penalty during Daven Holly's second interception return cost the Browns big time. Instead of getting the ball at the Steelers' 4-yard line with 32 seconds to go in the half, the Browns got the ball at the Steelers' 44 with 32 seconds to go. They did not go on to score before the clock ran out. You still get your choice of topping, but c'mon... that's bad.

Number of the Week

Alex says: 0--the number of botched long snaps in New Browns history. Between you and me, I'm a lazy guy. And I'm one "Number of the Week" entry away from finishing this sucker and never having to think about those stupid bastard Steelers for three weeks. So, I'm copping out and honoring perhaps the most underrated player in the NFL: Ryan Pontbriand. Ever since Corey and I changed the "Ryan Pontbriand Moment of the Week" to the "Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week"--explicit Pontbriand mentions have been kept to a minimum. This doesn't mean we haven't been noticing his accomplishments. I certainly have! Next week, against the Bengals, I implore you to watch the long snaps. They're perfect, time and time again. And I'm not exaggerating. Keep up the good work Ryan! -from your biggest fan

Corey says: 6--the number of points the offense scored. I think we could all use a reminder of that. Because, in what seemed like a game in which the Browns finally played well all around (until a late-game defensive collapse, that is), the offense was, in fact, its usual stinky self. Many kudos to Charlie, Braylon, the Frye family, the Edwards family, and all of the rest for that one 63-yard pass play, which was truly beautiful. But that drive was (almost) all there was, and even that drive only resulted in a field goal. Sure, Phil Dawson didn't help matters by missing a different field goal earlier in the game, but even with those points, the offense would have put up a paltry 9 points. Hardly the type of scoring we want them to do in the future.

Moral Standings

You probably weren't aware of it, but the Browns actually took their moral bye this week (they were owed one). Thus, we'll have to wait until next Sunday to see if they can keep the magical streak alive. The Steelers, however, suffered a colossal moral defeat when they were informed by the good citizens of Cleveland--for what I can only assume was the first time--that, in fact, they suck. Elsewhere, the Bengals got themselves back to .500 with a moral thrashing of the suddenly down-on-their-luck Saints, and the Ravens, already playing (morally) for next year, endured a humiliating moral letdown, as the sympathetic Falcons were kind enough to let them win the game.

            MW  ML  MT    pct
Cleveland   10   0   0  1.000
Cincinnati   5   5   0   .500
Pittsburgh   1   8   1   .150
Baltimore    0  11   0   .000

Next week: Bust out the Bismol, Cincinnatians, 'cause the Browns are going to show you a little bit of Northern Hospitality--and by "hospitality", I of course mean "beating you at football". We'll have the complete wrap-up right here, so be sure to join us for another thrilling edition of "Born and Raised"!

One thing that becomes clear when you delve into statistical analysis of sports is that won-lost records do not necessarily reflect team performance, even sometimes over large spans of time, but especially over small samples, like the NFL season so far. The current Pittsburgh Steelers illustrate this concept. Over the season's first 9 games, they have played well--but won only three games. In essence, the Steelers have been rather unlucky.

(Check out this article by Mike Tanier from about a week ago on Football Outsiders' FOX Sports blog. It discusses just how big a role luck can play in deciding won-lost records, and why DVOA, among other statistics, does a better job of describing team quality.)

Anyway, what does this mean for the Browns this weekend? Let's discuss. First, as always, the stats in this game preview are taken from this week's DVOA report. Click here for a detailed explanation of how DVOA works.

Browns offense vs. Steelers defense:

           CLE offense  PIT defense
total DVOA   -22.1%       -10.7%
passing      -20.3%        -0.7%
rushing      -24.6%       -22.3%

The Browns offense was less than stellar in the win over Atlanta, to put it mildly. As a result, they have actually dropped a spot, to 29th in the NFL in total offensive DVOA. Yet again, Reuben Droughns had the worst single-game rushing DPAR in the NFL. And Charlie Frye, despite finally going a whole game without tossing an interception, currently ranks 43rd on the season among all QBs in passing DPAR (-11.9). That's third-to-last, ahead of only Bruce Gradkowski and Andrew Walter--a reality which, of course, does not bode well for Charlie's future. It should be painfully obvious by now that the Browns need to take shots at big plays and hope for the best. If they don't do that, they're not going to gain any ground. And if those passes get intercepted, c'est la vie. It's not as if the Browns weren't going to punt the ball on the next play anyway.

The Steelers defense ranks 8th in the league by DVOA. While they have allowed the 24th-most points in the NFL, their opponents have had the 2nd-best average starting field position thanks to the Steelers' crappy special teams and other factors, so the points surrendered total is actually quite misleading. The strength of the Pittsburgh defense is definitely stopping the run, as they rank 4th in DVOA in that area. This is exactly the type of information that should get the Browns coaches thinking, "Hey, we should pass the ball!" In particular, the Browns should try picking on the Steelers' weak cornerbacks, as many other teams have done successfully. The Steelers struggle to defend passes to #1 receivers (37.9% DVOA, 30th in the NFL) and #2 receivers (17.6%, 22nd in the NFL), but do quite well against all the other types. If the Browns' offensive brain trust were smart, they'd focus on giving Ike Taylor and Deshea Townsend dizzy spells---but then, who said the Browns' offensive brain trust was smart? Huge advantage: Steelers

Steelers offense vs. Browns defense:

           PIT offense  CLE defense
total DVOA     4.2%        -2.5%
passing       17.7%        -8.6%
rushing      -11.2%         5.0%

The Browns defense just keeps getting tougher and tougher. They now rank 14th in total DVOA, and 6th in pass defense DVOA. Similar to last year, this stellar pass defense rating comes despite a pass rush that does not record many sacks (the Browns record a sack on 5.5% of passing plays, which ranks them 27th in the NFL). Now, eyewitness observation suggests to me that the Browns' pass rush, despite the lack of sacks, is massively better than it was last year--but still, the secondary is doing an amazing job yet again. The Browns now rank 1st in the NFL in defending passes to tight ends (-65.9%, thank you Sean Jones, Alge Crumpler, and Michael Vick), 4th in defending passes to #1 receivers (-14.0%), and 9th in defending passes to #2 receivers (-13.1%).

The Steelers offense ranks 13th in total DVOA. As was the case in 2005, 2004, 2003, and 2002, Pittsburgh is far better at passing than at rushing. This flies in the face of the usual analysis of the Steelers offense. The reason they get credit for being such a good rushing team is that, traditionally (ie: in a normal year), they run much more often than most teams (usually because they build early leads with the passing game and can then work on running out the clock). But while their rushing efforts are decent, they're not especially great on a per-play basis. What the Browns need to focus on is Ben Roethlisberger's passing game. Roethlisberger currently ranks 17th in passing DPAR (20.2), which may not seem like much, but is pretty impressive when you consider the fact that the Steelers average the most interceptions per drive (.139) of any NFL offense this season. For Roethlisberger to rack up 20.2 DPAR while throwing all those picks, he has to have been quite effective on the plays that didn't end up as interceptions. Slight advantage: Steelers

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns  Steelers
total DVOA               6.0%     -6.6%
FG kicking               2.7      -5.4
CLE kickoff vs. PIT KR   4.1      -1.8
CLE KR vs. PIT kickoff   5.2      -1.1
CLE punt vs. PIT PR      2.6      -9.1
CLE PR vs. PIT punt      5.3      -4.6

The 2nd-ranked Browns special teams are solid in just about every area. The 31st-ranked Steelers special teams are inept in just about every area. Dave Zastudil and his merry band of punt-returner-destroying minions (who rank 6th in the league) ought to have a field day toying with the worst punt return unit in the NFL. This is good because the Browns are probably going to be punting a lot in this game (as in any game). The other big matchup to look forward to is that of the Browns' 3rd-ranked kickoff return team vs. the Steelers' 27th-ranked kickoff team. Will this be the week Josh Cribbs finds the endzone? Perhaps--the Browns won't face a weaker kickoff team for the rest of the season (other than when they face the Steelers again, of course). Huge advantage: Browns

This game may be a matchup of teams with equal records, but the paths the Browns and Steelers have taken to reach 3-6 are vastly different. The Browns have played more or less like a 3-6 team. The Steelers have outgained their opponents, outscored their opponents, and been much more efficient than their opponents, but have been killed on numerous occasions by things like fumbles, interception returns, blocked field goals, and so on, and so on. These are not the type of phenomena that are likely to repeat themselves or correlate in any way to future events, as years of statistical analysis have shown. For that reason, the Steelers have to be considered the better team, hands-down. Most people seem to recognize this on some level (see the betting line, for example), but I suspect that has more to do with the fact that the Steelers were good last year than with any sort of analysis of the events of this year's games.

In summary, the Browns are just going to have to hope that the Steelers' bad luck continues in some form. Certainly it's possible. Some turnovers here, some field position there... I can see it happening. Enjoy the game, everybody, and I'll see you at the stadium!

Does any player in the NFL have more excuses made for him than Michael Vick? Case in point: before the play in which he went on to fumble away Atlanta's hopes for victory, Vick actually initially lined up for the snap behind the right guard, not the center. Not only that, Vick didn't even notice and had to have his center violently motion him into the right spot. Color analyst Rich Gannon's explanation for all this? "He's tired." Thanks a lot, Rich!

On a day when Vick couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with a pass, Rich Gannon and Kevin Harlan couldn't stop themselves complimenting things like his good work ethic and dedication and rugged, chiseled physique. Okay, I might have made that last one up. Decide for yourself.

Significant kudos must go out to the defense. Atlanta's offense may not be too formidable, but Michael Vick remains among the most dangerous weapons in the NFL. If Vick could simply run like Vick and pass like, say, Mark Brunell, he'd be a perennial MVP candidate. Instead he usually runs like Vick and passes like Joey Harrington. Nevertheless, you never know which version will show up.

As encouraging as the defense was, the offensive performance in the second half left a sour taste in the collective mouth of the city of Cleveland. Determined to run out the clock with a touchdown's lead, the Browns were rather committed to the whole "three yards and a cloud of FieldTurf" mantra. But as soon as the Falcons cut the lead to one point, the Browns' next series went: pass, pass, pass, pass, pass, pass, pass, field goal.

I'm not sure how to analyze this quite yet, because I'm reserving my judgment of Jeff Davidson. But it's interesting to say the least. Now on to your regularly scheduled items...

Play of the Week

Alex says: It may not have been the longest gain of the day or even something you'd see in most highlight packages of the game, but in the fourth quarter Charlie Frye found Kellen Winslow running a wheel route on the left sideline and hit him for 36 yards. Essentially it was the only positive play on the drive which led to Phil Dawson's field goal. It's not the high-stakes context, however, that elevates this play in my mind. Frye lofted the pass quite a bit and Winslow had mistimed his jump. With LeBronesque manipulation of time and space, Kellen seemed to float in the air for an extra second, just enough to snag the football and keep running. It is one of the few truly jaw-dropping plays I've seen from the Browns in my lifetime. Winslow made it look so simple and the play was over quickly, but it was a thing of beauty.

Corey says: Despite their usual misguided and unsuccessful attempts to "establish the run", the Browns were able to hit on a couple of successful passing plays, such as my Play of the Week, Braylon Edwards' 19-yard touchdown catch in the second quarter. It's been a long time since Braylon wowed us with a huge play, and while a 19-yard catch isn't nearly as long as what we had previously come to expect from Braylon, at least it's something...

Player of the Week

Alex says: In a game unquestionably won by the defense, I can't hand this award to an offensive player in good conscience. So, let's see here... well, it was certainly good to see Coach McGinest back in the lineup, but I don't think that's enough. Orpheus Roye delivered a nice forearm shiver to Michael Vick, sending him to the sidelines for a play. But he did pick up a personal foul flag for that one. Oh well, c'est la vie. The most impressive defensive performance of the day was that of the Browns' two-headed strong safety monster. Both Sean Jones and Brodney Pool picked off passes and severely limited the Falcons' passing game--which is absurdly skewed toward running backs and tight ends. So I say let Jones and Pool share this week's honor.

Corey says: The defense deserves mad props, but Kellen Winslow just continues to amaze. Six passes were directed his way; five were complete. Of those, one was for 40 yards (and represented more or less the entirety of a touchdown drive), while another was for 36 yards (and represented the majority of a field goal drive). He also recorded a tackle for good measure (bringing an end to Atlanta's crazy lateral play at the end of the first half... by the way, I love crazy lateral plays!). Is Winslow the best tight end in the NFL right now? Quite possibly.

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"Baltimore game. That's all we could think about. Let's try to stay as the aggressor. We stayed with it. We played for each other and made it happen." --Braylon Edwards

Talk in punchy copy. That's what reporters like to hear. Braylon Edwards did that today. Every once in a while, incomplete sentences. Clichés, too. Pretend you're Bill Plaschke. The less content, the better. Playing for each other, that's what it's all about in the NFL. We're hoping this will carry over to next week. Momentum.

Corey says:

"Those guys practically knew what we were running. They were calling out the play before the snap." --Michael Vick

Taken out of context, this quote would seem to be a lot more telling. Alas, Vick is actually referring to one specific play, the one on which he fumbled at the end of the game. Still, I like to think that the Browns could have called out the Falcons' plays before each snap of the game, but chose not to, so as not to betray their remarkable advantage.

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: Late in the second quarter, Steve Heiden introduced a new side of special teams dominance to the world, with the Browns' first blocked punt since 2003 against Seattle. So far this season, we've seen great returns, great coverage, and accurate kicking. But everyone had slept on the team's kick-blocking abilities. Might I remind you that the Browns still have Orpheus Roye and Alvin "Mount" McKinley--masters of disrupting opponents' field goals. Who knows what the next seven weeks will hold for these kings among men?

Corey says: While it was not an altogether disappointing day for les équipes spéciales, it was a day without the big highlights we've come to know. My Moment of the Week is Dave Zastudil's second punt of the day, which went out of bounds at the Falcons' 5-yard line. It led to a Browns touchdown, as Atlanta went three-and-out before punting, giving the Browns a reasonably short field for their first score of the day. Way to go, Dave!

Bob Lingenfelter Memorial Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: It's true that Michael Vick was the game's leading rusher, but almost two thirds of his yardage came on two scrambles: a 30-yarder in the third and a 20-yarder in the fourth quarter. Otherwise, the defense did a fantastic job keeping Vick bottled up in the pocket. Many times we saw Vick attempting to escape the pocket to the left only to find another Browns defender there to greet him. Facing such pressure, Vick had no choice but to launch the ball into the sidelines--hence the downright awful passing numbers. Due to the defense's success, I'm naming rookie inside linebacker Leon Williams, who to all appearances was official "Michael Vick spy" on Sunday, my Obscure Brown of the Week, as a symbol of the unit's triumph.

Corey says: Is it Lingenfelter, with an L, or Lingenfeiter, with an I? Different sources show different spellings. Anyone have some insight into this? Anyway, with the way the Browns' secondary has been dominating, and the way the Browns' secondary has been comprised of obscure personalities, I feel it's time we give accolades where accolades are due. My Obscure Brown of the Week is DB Ralph Brown, #20. Ralph took some heat for poor play early in the season, but has really buckled down, filling in for Leigh Bodden/Gary Baxter/Daven Holly/take your pick. An interesting fact you might not know about Ralph is that he owns and designs a clothing line called Bralay, which is sold at fashion boutiques in Los Angeles and that most fashionable of fashion meccas: Lincoln, Nebraska.

Fashion Item of the Week

Alex says: Among players no longer with the team, thinking back upon the best sellers since 1999, I distinguish the jersey fashions thusly. Acceptable to wear: Jamir Miller, Kevin Johnson (?). Unacceptable to wear: Chris Spielman, Tim Couch, William Green, Kelly Holcomb, Jeff Faine, Ty Detmer, Courtney Brown, Gerard Warren, Quincy Morgan. I wonder at what point does it become retro chic to wear the jersey of bad players from the New Browns era? Eventually, wearing a Chris Spielman jersey will be like wearing a Cory Snyder jersey. In other words, awesome. But how long does this process take? My best estimate is that for guys like Spielman and Detmer, maybe 8-10 years. For Gerard Warren, Quincy Morgan, et. al, a little longer. For Tim Couch, never.

Corey says: Since when have people worn Ty Detmer jerseys? Frankly, I think a Ty Detmer jersey is hilarious (therefore cool) today, but I don't believe I've seen one (if I have, it was in 1999). Most 1999-era jerseys are already at the retro chic stage, in my opinion. For example, about a year ago I saw a man wearing a Browns #84 CHIAVERINI in a Chicago department store. It about made my month.

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: When the Falcons scored a touchdown late in the third quarter, head coach Jim Mora Jr. faced a no-brainer decision: extra point or two point conversion? Trailing 14-9 at the time, any competent coach would've gone for two. If you fail, you're behind by a touchdown. But if you succeed, then you're back only by a field goal. If you choose to try for the extra point, it doesn't matter whether you make it or miss it. What's the difference between trailing by five and trailing by four? Thankfully, Mora didn't appear to pay any attention to this dilemma and diligently sent out the kicking unit. If Atlanta had instead gone for two and succeeded, on their final drives, needing only a field goal to tie, we would've seen a very different outcome. So, thank you Jim Mora Jr.

Corey says: I don't know, Alex. In that situation, there is some difference between trailing by five and trailing by four. I mean, by kicking the extra point, Mora assured his team would be within 7 should the Browns tack on another field goal, which the Browns did do. I agree you should play the percentages instead of adhering to some arbitrary rule like "only go for two with 2 minutes to go in the fourth, in odd numbered weeks, while wearing your white jerseys," but Mora's decision wasn't completely without logic.

Anyway, I don't have an Idiot of the Week. I know you'll let it slide just this once. I do, however, have a point to make, and I'm not sure where else to make it. Let me set the scene: it's late in the third quarter, the Browns lead 14-3, and Atlanta faces 4th-and-1 at the Browns' 31 yard-line. The Falcons decide to go for it. But instead of charging forward for the 1 yard, Vick launches a dumb pass 30 yards downfield, as is his wont. Brodney Pool has excellent position on the intended receiver (Alge Crumpler), as is his wont, and easily intercepts the pass. Hooray! The Falcons fail to score and the Browns get the ball back... only, they have to start their drive at their own 2-yard line. Now, I don't want to fault Brodney, per se, for grabbing the interception--certainly it is and should be any defensive back's natural instinct to catch the ball whenever possible. But had Brodney simply batted the ball down, the Browns would have taken over at their own 31-yard line instead of their own 2. Let's run through the unfortunate series of events that unfolded as a result of the Browns' poor field position on the next drive. The Browns rush for negligible gains on first and second down, as is their wont, and are forced to pass on third down. Charlie Frye drops back and is promptly sacked, on what could have been a borderline safety. In retrospect, taking the safety might not have been such a bad thing, because, now backed up to their own 1-inch line, the Browns are forced to use all the members of their punt team to stay back and protect Dave Zastudil from certain puntricide. This means that Falcons punt returner Allen Rossum has tons of open space in which to run, and he returns the punt 37 yards to the Browns' 12-yard line. From there, it's an easy touchdown for the Falcons. Now, I'm not saying Brodney Pool should have been able to foresee all of this in the fraction of a second he had to make a play on Vick's 4th-down pass, but if he had simply batted it down instead of hauling it in, the Browns would have been in much better shape.

Number of the Week

Alex says: .64, or Michael Vick's passer rating on throws to Alge Crumpler against the Browns. That's not a typo, .64 as in "less than one". As in "zeroth percentile". As in "how the hell can someone get a passer rating lower than one?" Well, for starters, force thirteen throws and complete only four of them for a measly 37 yards. Also, both of Vick's interceptions were directed to the tight end. With the Browns linebackers focusing on keeping Vick contained, you have to salute the safeties--Sean Jones, Brodney Pool, and Brian Russell--for shutting down his favorite passing target.

Corey says: Alex's Number of the Week and mine, taken together, pretty much sum up Michael Vick's career pretty nicely. My number is 10.6, Vick's rushing average in the game. It was the highest single-game average of the season for Vick, and the highest since Week 4 of last year. Vick's yards per carry have declined slightly since the early days of his career, when defenses were perhaps unaware of what they were getting into; thus 10.6 yards per rush is pretty darn high. Credit the Browns defense (and defensive coaches) for focusing on stopping Vick's passing attempts first and foremost. Sure, Vick, got his 74 yards on the ground, but the Falcons did next to nothing on offense overall.

Moral Standings

Upsetting a playoff contender on the road will always be a moral victory--ask anyone, like an Ethics professor--so the Browns improve to 10-0. This is uncharted territory for the New Browns franchise. Cincinnati couldn't put away San Diego, notching another moral defeat. Pittsburgh may have gotten a morale-boosting victory over the Saints, but the game became an automatic moral loss as soon as reports came out that defensive end Aaron Smith cried in the locker room, before the game. And finally, Baltimore was thoroughly outplayed in every facet of the game, only by sheer cheating being able to technically "win" against the Titans. Our moral victory computers can account for fluky things like cheating and luck, so the Ravens find themselves with an NFL-leading tenth moral defeat on the season.

            MW  ML  MT    pct
Cleveland   10   0   0  1.000
Cincinnati   4   5   0   .444
Pittsburgh   1   7   1   .167
Baltimore    0  10   0   .000

Next week: The express train to the Super Bowl makes a stop at Cleveland Browns Stadium as the worst team in the NFL drags their sorry behinds to the Forest City for yet another Savage (get it?) beating. Re-live all of your favorite massacre moments right here, in the next mind-blowing installment of Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns!

Check out this most excellent article by Mike Tanier, just published over at Football Outsiders. It adds a lot to the conversation about what we've seen from the Browns offense so far this year, not to mention NFL offenses in general.

The last Browns-Falcons game was probably the greatest game of the New Browns era (so far). Thus it is only natural to assume that this weekend's matchup will be a true classic, one for Browns fans to remember forever. I can tell you're as excited as I am--let's get to previewing...

As you surely know already, the stats in this game preview are borrowed from Football Outsiders' Week 10 DVOA reports. You may click here for a detailed explanation of how DVOA works.

Browns offense vs. Falcons defense:

           CLE offense  ATL defense
total DVOA   -20.4%         0.0%
passing      -20.1%        -2.0%
rushing      -20.8%         2.7%

Dateline: Cleveland. The Browns offense stinks. I know, I know--it was hard for me to believe, too. Unfortunately, little that I have seen in the two games since Jeff Davidson took over playcalling responsibilities suggests that we'll be seeing any big changes the rest of the year, so we may simply have to ride it out and hope the defense can keep games close. We all know the running game is ineffectual at best (currently, the Browns rank 31st in rushing DVOA), but frankly, improving the running game is not crucial to improving the offense. The lack of success in the passing game (current DVOA rank: 24th) is what gets me down. Charlie Frye has totaled the second-fewest DPAR (-11.9) among qualifying quarterbacks so far this year. To be fair, I don't believe this poor rating is entirely his fault; certainly, he has had plenty of poor playcalling to deal with, not to mention all the dropped and/or tipped passes (many of which resulted in interceptions) that are weighing him down.

The Falcons have a league-average defense (ranked 17th by DVOA) and are slightly stronger against the pass than against the run. Interestingly, they do quite well defending passes to tight ends (-11.5% DVOA, thanks mainly to former Mistake by the Lake favorite Chris Crocker) and running backs (-45.6% DVOA, 4th-best in the NFL), but struggle mightily to defend passes to both #1 and #2 receivers (33.9% and 43.5%, respectively, ranking them 28th and 29th in those two categories). This suggests that the Falcons have gotten poor performances from their primary cornerbacks, even despite all the attention CB DeAngelo Hall got for supposedly shutting down Chad Johnson a couple weeks ago. Whether or not Joe Jurevicius (currently listed as questionable with a back injury) plays in this game could be huge for the Browns offense. Regardless, I think this would a perfect week for the Browns to start stretching the field a little more, forcing Atlanta's corners to cover as much ground as possible. Not that I'm confident the Browns will do this... Advantage: Falcons

Falcons offense vs. Browns defense:

           ATL offense  CLE defense
total DVOA    -1.3%         1.0%
passing      -21.1%        -7.2%
rushing       13.7%        10.8%

You may be surprised to learn that the Browns pass defense is ranked 7th in the NFL by DVOA. Certainly, the secondary has achieved this ranking in the unlikeliest of circumstances, as Daylon McCutcheon never played a down, Gary Baxter battled injuries and is now done for the year, and demigod Leigh Bodden has suffered from a string of seemingly unrelated injuries himself. Bodden is currently listed as doubtful for this weekend's game, while cornerbacks Daven Holly and Jereme Perry are each listed as questionable. I'm not ready to jump on the Ralph Brown, Mike Hawkins, and Justin Hamilton bandwagons quite yet, but if the secondary has yet another good game, we all just might have to reevaluate a few of those guys.

Now, about the Atlanta offense. The Falcons rank 2nd in the NFL in rushing DVOA. Luckily, rushing DVOA doesn't correlate that well to overall offensive success (as we've seen), so the Falcons offense only ranks 17th in the league in total DVOA. Regardless, Michael Vick leads all quarterbacks in rushing DPAR, with 18.9, a number that actually ranks him 2nd among all players (trailing only Tiki Barber).

But what of Vick in the passing game? Certainly, a majority of his rushes come on passing downs, so in some sense it is difficult to separate the two, but when he actually throws the ball, he hasn't been that effective. He ranks 25th among quarterbacks in both passing DPAR and passing DVOA, while the Falcons as a team also rank 25th in the league in pass offense DVOA. However, Vick has been wildly inconsistent, which means he is at least capable of having a great game passing. Look at his DPAR totals through the first half of the season:

week   opponent   passing DPAR*
  1     at CAR         5.4
  2     vs TB         -2.0
  3     at NO     data unavail.
  4     vs ARI        -2.2
  6     vs NYG        -9.2
  7     vs PIT         6.0
  8     at CIN        16.1
  9     at DET        -5.9

(*Defense adjustments are based on Falcons opponents at the time. These DPAR totals may now look slightly different.)

Any DPAR total that's negative is quite horrible. But Vick has also had two pretty good games through the air and one great one. I think the best bet for the Browns this week is to assume they'll face the normal, poor-passing Vick, and concentrate on containing his rushing attempts (and, to a much lesser extent, those of Warrick Dunn and the other Falcons running backs). This will be easier said than done for the Browns, because, strong as they've been in the secondary, they rank only 28th in the NFL in rush defense DVOA. Advantage: Neither

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns  Falcons
total DVOA               6.8%    -3.3%
FG kicking               2.1    -13.5
CLE kickoff vs. ATL KR   3.5     -0.8
CLE KR vs. ATL kickoff   5.8      9.9
CLE punt vs. ATL PR      3.3      1.1
CLE PR vs. ATL punt      5.4     -6.5

Sigh, Browns fans! Those specialest of teams have reclaimed their former position as the 2nd-best special teams in the NFL--nay, in the universe. The units leading the charge are still the kickoff return team, ranked 3rd in the NFL, the punt team, ranked 5th, and the punt return team, ranked 6th. The Atlanta special teams, on the other hand, are ranked 29th overall by DVOA. This is due in large part to the early-season experiment in letting Michael Koenen do both the punting and the kicking. Koenen missed 6 of his 9 field goal attempts (thus the Falcons rank 32nd in field goal kicking), but he has since been replaced with 46-year old Morten Andersen, who has performed decently. So that statistic may be misleading. Koenen is still handling the punting, however, and the Falcons rank 28th in that area. The one unit to watch out for is the kickoff team (also still Koenen...), which ranks #2 in the NFL (...so that's what he's good for). Advantage: Browns

In summary, the Falcons are the better team, and they're facing the Browns at their most banged-up, and they've got the home field advantage, but then, the Falcons aren't as good as most people give them credit for. Looking at the Browns' remaining schedule, there are still only two more games against teams with inferior DVOA totals (Tampa Bay and Houston). Among all the other opponents (that is, the ones who are better than the Browns), the one the Browns have the best chance to upset, according to DVOA, is the Falcons. So buckle your seatbelts, fans--it should be a fun one!

It's been about a year since Mascot Power Rankings, 2005, so let's see how the Cleveland area mascots stack up now...

1. Slider
   Previous rank: 1
   
   
   
   The champion, now and forever. I don't believe any mascot will ever wrest the top spot away from Slider. Even if the Cavs traded Moondog and Ira Newble to the Suns for Amare Stoudemire and the Phoenix Gorilla (renaming him, of course, the Cleveland Gorilla), still I don't think Slider would be usurped.
   
   
2. SlapShark
   Previous rank: 2
   
   
   
   The Barons may have skated for the last time, but the spirit of SlapShark, the greatest shark with a monocle in the history of Earth, will forever live on in our hearts, our minds, and--so long as there is a breath in my body--these rankings. We miss you, buddy! Meanwhile, look what the newly-formed Worcester Sharks have done with SlapShark's remains (do not click if you have a weak stomach). They've replaced his monocle--his livelihood!--with some kind of black eye. And they've renamed him "Finz". Just disgusting.
   
   
3. Moondog
   Previous rank: 5
   
   
   
   Hardcore mascot fans will see this as an upset. My position on Moondog has softened a little since I found out he reads our blog (see the comments from last year's rankings). I still take issue with his annoying drum, his lack of a DoubleCapital, and his trampoline dunk skills, which need improvement, but naturally, I'm willing to make concessions for a loyal reader such as Moondog. It's clear to me that he means well. Also, he seems to be pretty buddy-buddy with our Lord and Savior, LeBron James. Big points for that.
   
   
4. CB, Chomps, TD and Trapper
   Previous rank: 3
   
   
   
   The bar for NFL mascots is set low; I mean, how many NFL mascots can you picture? (Snowflake the dolphin doesn't count.) Still, CB, Chomps, TD and Trapper continually fail to provide any sort of real entertainment during Browns games. They are essentially irrelevant. If I passed by the four of them at, say, the supermarket, I'm not even sure I'd recognize them--that's how anonymous they are.
   
   
5. Skipper
   Previous rank: 6
   
   
   
   The one thing Skipper has going for him is a distant, passing similarity to Slider, his big-league master (that, and he has a jersey number, which is nice). After that, however, Skipper suffers from a serious lack of personality and little bit of a Sesame Street complex. Put some fur on the nose; then we'll talk.
   
   
6. Orbit
   Previous rank: 4
   
   
   
   The more I think about Orbit, the Aeros' mascot, the more I resent him. The team is called the Aeros. Their mascot is named Orbit. Why is he a cat? Cats do not make good mascots. Ignoring the obvious fact that Orbit should be an alien, let me list some things that make better mascots than cats: giraffes, ostriches, tapirs, donut holes, duck-billed platypi, sharks with monocles, pencil sharpeners... you get the idea.

Cleveland's favorite media watchdog chimes in again.

Former Massillon High, Ohio State and NFL star linebacker Chris Spielman, analyst on ESPN2's OSU-Illinois telecast Saturday afternoon, had to be delusional when he actually suggested that Buckeyes receiver Anthony Gonzalez was an equal punt-returning threat to teammate Ted Ginn Jr. Uh, excuse us? Ginn has recorded six punt-return touchdowns in less than three seasons. That's the most of any Big Ten Conference player in history. Yes, as in ever. But, let's be honest: Spielman merely committed a classic mistake that too many analysts make when they try too hard to say something provocative - they merely say something silly, instead.

Saying something ridiculous for effect? I don't believe I've ever heard of a sports writer or analyst doing something like that. It's just patently ludicrous! Why would a journalist, with his reputation and dignity on the line mind you, ever exaggerate a story simply for attention?! That's just about the most preposterous thing I've ever heard! Ever.

Oh, and in case you're on the fence about Brown, he also recently wrote,

Sorry, but the newest Nike TV ad featuring [King LeBron] James - in which [H]e plays multiple roles a la Eddie Murphy in "The Nutty Professor" - is among the worst commercials we've seen all year.

I'm speechless. This kind of LeBron-bashing should be punishable by law, and stop looking at my lemonade!

Let's talk about the Browns offense. They scored 25 points, a new season high! That's actually more points than an average NFL team scores! Good, eh?

Ah, but the 25 points were mostly achieved on field goals. That's not very efficient. Bad!

Ah, but that means the Browns mounted 7 whole scoring drives! That is very encouraging--good!

Ah, but San Diego's defense previously ranked last in the NFL in red zone DVOA. That means that, once you get into scoring range, it should generally be easier to score touchdowns on the Chargers. You shouldn't have to settle for field goals. That's bad.

Ah, but the Chargers, in spite of terrible red zone defense, play excellent defense overall. Coming into the game, they ranked 12th in the NFL in total defensive DVOA. Thus, the fact that the Browns got into scoring range at all--let alone 7 times--is quite impressive. That's good!

Ah, but they only averaged 27 yards per drive. Only twice did they mount a drive longer than 57 yards, and both of those were desperation drives at the end of a half. That's bad.

Ah, but you get your choice of topping! That's good!

Of course, the toppings contain Potassium Benzoate. That's bad.

My point is that every good thing you could say about the performance of the Browns offense yesterday--the points, the yards, the number of drives--is really not so impressive when you put things in perspective. The Browns actually led this freaking game at halftime, thanks to a spectacular performance by the defense (keep in mind that the Chargers had the 3rd-ranked offense coming into this game), some special teams action, and a few lucky breaks. But the performance of the offense was pretty awful.

My other point is this: if we look only at the big picture, we realize that the Chargers are in fact a very good team--possibly the best the Browns will face all year--so we should not surprised with the result of this contest. Nor should we rush to condemn Charlie Frye, Jeff Davidson and/or Romeo Crennel because of the Browns' performance in this game. It will be a few more weeks before we're ready to do that...

Play of the Week

Alex says: Following the two-minute warning in the first half, Philip Rivers hit Keenan McCardell for a really long pass and things weren't looking too good. But then, Brodney Pool reached in and smacked the ball from McCardell's arm. Thankfully, the Browns recovered the fumble, and on the following drive managed a field goal. This play might have represented a 10-point swing. Chances are good that San Diego would've gone on to score a touchdown. The defense was playing good, but I didn't trust them to keep that up for long. This kind of play is a nice microcosm for what the Browns needed to pull off the upset: extreme luck. They managed to walk that tight line--terrible offense, pretty good defense and special teams--and hold onto the lead for a surprisingly long time. In the end, though, the talent gap was too large and San Diego pulled away. The Browns were certainly very, very lucky this week, but it wasn't enough to overcome such a lame offense.

Corey says: Even though the play of the offense was terrible overall, I'm going with the one offensive play that was truly successful: Charlie Frye's 52-yard lob to Joe Jurevicius on the right sideline in the first quarter. Of course, the Browns followed this beautiful play up with a run up the middle for 2 yards, a run up the middle for no gain, and a sack... so it only led to a field goal. Even more frustrating was the fact that the Browns played the entire rest of the game extremely conservatively. I'm not saying it's easy to just draw up a 52-yard pass play, but if you try it more than once, you just might succeed more than once. Seeing as how the Browns' success rate on the supposedly "safe" plays (runs up the middle) is something like 1 percent, what do they have to lose by "gambling" on a huge play whose success rate is likely to be something closer to 20 or 30 percent?

Player of the Week

Alex says: Phil Dawson--all he does? Catch touchdow- kick field goals! For an unprecedented seventh time this season, Borg Phil Dawson suited up for the Cleveland Browns, and he delivered a career day. Phil showed both accuracy, going 6/6 on field goals, and power, booting kickoffs on average inside the 1-yard line. Speaking of power, on his second field goal of the afternoon, the ball was actually partially blocked by Derreck Robinson. It certainly must be frustrating as a Browns opponent to know that even if you block a Phil Dawson field goal, he'll still make it! Where did this power surge come from? Here are a few possibilities: (1) Dawson has been taking performance enhancing drugs. This is pretty far-fetched. The NFL has a rigorous drug testing program and Dawson would've been caught by now. (2) Dawson began a new training regimen this off-season. Again, pretty far-fetched. This is the kind of "bye week" story all of Cleveland would've heard ten times over by now, if true. (3) Dawson stopped taking anti-steroids. He used these drugs to weaken his kicking leg since he had an unfair advantage. Since quitting, Dawson has returned to his natural strength level, hence the incredible kicking power. I feel this is the most feasible explanation.

Corey says: ...or it's just the Borg nanotechnology. Anyway, my Player of the Week is, uhhh... I don't know, Kellen Winslow? I really hate to go with someone on the offense; it kind of belies my point about the offense playing poorly and the defense playing well. But Winslow caught 11 of 13 passes that were thrown his way, 6 of which were for first downs. Let it be noted, in a week when the media pumped up the "Winslow vs. Gates" rivalry, that Kellen did nearly everything that was asked of him, and in the end, put up better numbers than Gates, who caught 2 of the 5 balls that were thrown his way.

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"You're not happy with six field goals, because you'd like touchdowns. This offense is still evolving." --Romeo Crennel

I think the offense played unconditionally crappy this week, but really, seven scoring drives sounds impressive. The problem is that the team only averaged 27 yards per drive. Given those two conditions, I'd expect the Browns to have great starting field position on the day--but that's not the case either. Overall, the Browns started out around their own 33-yard line for an average drive. These facts put together make me wonder how the Browns managed so many points at all. And once you throw in that the offense was on the verge of implosion at several points, with many near interceptions, one thing screams out to me: luck. I'm sorry to harp on this so much today, but oh boy were the Browns lucky to be in this game late in the second half.

Corey says:

"I think we showed the makings of a pretty solid football team today because we obviously did not play at our best through the 60 minutes." --Chargers head coach Marty Schottenheimer

Um, what?

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: When Dennis Northcutt fielded his first punt of the game at the Browns 9-yard line, I was saying, "Don't catch it! Don't catch it!" Shows what I know. Eighty-one yards later Northcutt had put the offense in a great position to punch it in, which of course they did not. With each passing season, Northcutt becomes less a factor on offense but more dangerous as a punt returner. I happily accept this tradeoff, especially since a healthy Joe Jurevicius essentially duplicates Northcutt's former role as "possession" receiver. Duplicates and more, I'd say. A problem lies in the fact that Northcutt's salary is way out of line with a normal return man's. In 2005, Dennis was the eighth-most expensive receiver against the cap in the league.

Corey says: With due respect to Josh Cribbs' 47-yard kickoff return and Phil Dawson's blocked-but-still-good field goal, Dennis Northcutt's 81-yard yard punt return was one of the best special teams plays of the year, let alone the game. Is it just me or does it seem like the Browns special teams have a real knack for pulling off extremely long returns (whether kickoff or punt) but not scoring touchdowns on them? Given the quality of the Browns' offense, that's not such a good pattern.

Mike Oliphant Memorial Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: He only made a brief appearance during the game, but freshly signed defensive back Mike Hawkins could be considered the obscurest of Obscure Browns. When researching an obscure Brown, I normally go about as far as looking up his middle name--who could ever forget Eric Lebron Westmoreland? But I was simply amazed by Hawkins' story. This will be a little lengthy, but here are a few selections from Mike's official team bio:

Not allowed to play football by his father (Micheal) during two years at Hillcrest High School in Dallas, he ultimately found himself homeless in the summer of 2000, when he lived in the city’s Martin Luther King Park for roughly six weeks. During that period of homelessness, he would bathe himself at a nearby McDonald’s restaurant and wash his clothes in the park’s swimming pool. Soon after, former neighbor Trina (Ganison) Roberts helped to get him off the streets by facilitating a move into the Addison, Texas, home of her brother, Eric Ganison, where the two, according to Hawkins, “supported me mentally and physically”. He began playing competitive football that fall at R.L. Turner High School in Carrollton, Texas. But when Eric Ganison’s family moved away following Hawkins’ junior year, he elected to move in with a high school teammate for his senior year rather than move with the Ganisons and received father-like support from his high school coach, Tim Beck... Spent one season (2002) at Oklahoma, however attempted to transfer early in 2003 in order to be closer to his mother, Noreen Taylor, and his newborn daughter after experiencing a personality conflict with a member of the OU coaching staff, but Oklahoma would not release him. Subsequently left school and worked odd jobs around the Dallas area including a Dallas-area Wendy’s and briefly at a Nissan dealership. Worked odd jobs until his next football opportunity presented itself, an open tryout with the Arena Football League’s Dallas Desperados late in 2003. Was one of two players signed by the Desperados from among the roughly 450 who tried out. Spent the entire 2004 season and the first part of the 2005 campaign as a member of the Desperados before leaving the AFL in March 2005 in order to ready himself for the NFL Draft, and was drafted in the fifth round by Green Bay.

I suppose there are many roads to the NFL. Here's to Mike, one of my new favorite Browns. I hope you stick with the team.

Corey says: For lack of a better candidate, I'm going with offensive lineman Fred Matua, #67, who was the seventh-round draft pick of the Lions this past offseason but has since signed with Cleveland. Fred is a relative of the Tuiasosopo clan--a family which includes onetime (or, in some cases, current) football players Titus, Navy, Mike, Manu, Marques, and Zach Tuiasosopo, to speak nothing of baseball prospect Matt Tuiasosopo. So, uh, way to have a good family, Fred!

Fashion Item of the Week

Alex says: Whenever the Chargers don their powder blue throwbacks, everyone goes crazy trying to compliment them in every way possible. I'm not criticizing the powder blues--I like them too--but let's not let the exception blind us from the rule. The Chargers' normal uniforms are very, very ugly. And the team should be punished for this. In the MLB, generally when one team wears a throwback uniform, their opponent follows suit. I spent Sunday evening trying to imagine if this could be possible with the Browns' newly anachronistic threads. What could the team do to "old" up their jerseys even more? Besides fix those damned socks, of course.

Corey says: Nothing says football quite like blood on the uniform. Well, in the second quarter yesterday, Kellen Winslow, soldier that he is, took blood on the uni to new heights, as his neck appeared to be leaking all over his jersey. I know the defense was told to go for the jugular, but that was going too far! Anyway, it made Kellen look real tough... and he didn't even change into a clean jersey at halftime.

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: In the second quarter, deep in his own territory, Charlie Frye rolls right and simply drops the ball, unprovoked. Fumble recoveries being random and whatnot, the Chargers happened to be lucky enough to scoop up the ball. And picking up the ball within ten yards of the end zone tends to lead to scoring. So, of course, after recovering the fumble, San Diego's Marques Harris had himself one of the easiest touchdowns you'll see this season. His reaction? Complete hysteric euphoria, capped off with a backflip. It was all very dignified. And then, upstaging himself, Harris jogged back to the sidelines and directly to an oxygen mask! First of all, he had just run six yards after picking up the ball, and he wasn't too tired to do a backflip. Let me repeat that. Six. Yards. But now Harris is so winded he needs some oxygen? What an idiot.

Corey says: My Idiots of the Week are the Browns training staff and any Chargers players that happened to be on the field when Leigh Bodden got injured (on like the very first play of the game, too...). Also, anyone who looked at, breathed on, walked by, or thought about Leigh Bodden in the past week. What is your problem, people? Without Leigh Bodden, it's just not Browns football! As citizens of Earth, it is our responsibility to see that Leigh remains healthy for all Browns games.

Number of the Week

Alex says: 11.67, or the Chargers' average yards per rush after they had taken the lead. The primary tenet of Martyball® is to pound with the run late in the game--run out the clock, if you will. And the Chargers certainly did that. On their final two real drives, both teams knew a healthy dose of handoffs was coming. On only nine carries, San Diego running backs gained 105 yards and two more touchdowns. The only reason I bring this up is to discuss the long touted correlation between a running back gaining 100+ yards and wins. The problem isn't that this isn't usually discussed by football analysts as a simple correlation, but rather a causation. Namely, "when X runs for 100 or more yards, his team wins Y% of the time". But, as the Football Outsiders have shown, teams don't win because of the rush, they rush because of the win. Just like today. The Chargers didn't rush late in the game because they had "established the run" earlier on. Instead they rushed because they were ahead--and Tomlinson's stats are all the better for it.

Corey says: -5.5, the total combined DPAR of Reuben Droughns and Jerome Harrison in the game yesterday--worst among any team's rushing corps in Week 9. Clearly, the problem is that we're not establishing the run... so let's rush some more! Hey it worked against the Jets! What's that, the Jets rank last in the NFL in run defense DVOA? La la la la, I can't hear you... la la la establishtherun la la!!!

Moral Standings

The Browns' season of dreams continues. The game was supposed to be a blowout, but the Browns led at halftime... that's like three moral victories right there! (Not that I would actually count them as three separate wins; I'm very careful to ensure the accuracy and fairness of the moral standings.) Elsewhere, the Bengals squeaked by the Ravens, as they would have won the game if not for an officiating blunder in the final minute. And although the Steelers lost to the Broncos yesterday, the game actually resulted in a rare moral tie. How this fascinating development affects the moral playoff picture down the road remains to be seen, of course.

            MW  ML  MT    pct
Cleveland    9   0   0  1.000
Cincinnati   4   4   0   .500
Pittsburgh   1   6   1   .188
Baltimore    0   9   0   .000

Next week: The team hits the road once more, this time for the Coca-Cola city, "Hot"-lanta, where the Browns haven't lost a single game since 1993! Join us, won't you, for a recap of the thrilling win--same place, same time!

DVOA suggests this will be the toughest game the Browns will have to play all year, and I see no reason to disagree. The Chargers are an elite team, plain and simple. Of course, upsets are always possible. Let's think about just what the Browns might do to make this contest interesting...

First, a reminder that the statistics in this preview are borrowed from Football Outsiders' weekly DVOA ratings. For a detailed explanation of how DVOA works, click here.

Browns offense vs. Chargers defense:

           CLE offense   SD defense
total DVOA   -18.3%        -6.2%
passing      -19.0%        -6.0%
rushing      -17.4%        -6.4%

The Browns offense took a step in the right direction in Week 8, but it came against one of the league's worst defenses (the Jets) so only a tiny bit of improvement is reflected in the DVOA ratings. Much has been made of the fact that the Browns have gained the 2nd-fewest yards of any team in the NFL, but I think that statistic is misleading. The Browns do rank 31st in yards gained per drive (20.18), but then, they also have the 2nd-best average starting field position (average line of scrimmage: their own 33.46 yard line), so even when the Browns offense is effective, it gains fewer yards than we might expect. For the record, DVOA ranks the Browns offense 27th in the NFL.

The San Diego defense, on the other hand, allows the 3rd-fewest yards per drive (22.40), but ranks only 12th in the NFL in DVOA--making it the Chargers' weakest unit. What accounts for this discrepancy? As Aaron Schatz points out in his most recent power rankings on FOX Sports:

Looking for the Chargers' Achilles' heel? We've mentioned the secondary in the past, but this is also the league's worst red-zone defense, and it isn't even close. That's odd, because usually a team with a good front seven is going to be good in the red zone.

Now, I'm not sure what the reason could be for the Chargers' poor defensive performance in the red zone, and I'm not sure whether this trend is likely to hold for much longer, but it's worth noting. This is going to sound painfully obvious, but the key for the Browns may simply be getting into the red zone--a challenge, sure, but one the Browns are capable of overcoming, with their field position-providing special teams and their interception-grabbing defense. In other words, the Browns offense will probably not be very successful moving the ball against the Chargers' D, so let's hope they don't really have to. Advantage: Chargers

Chargers offense vs. Browns defense:

            SD offense  CLE defense
total DVOA    21.7%         0.1%
passing       40.9%        -0.6%
rushing        6.0%         1.0%

The positive steps taken by the Browns defense in last weekend's game carry a little more weight than those taken by the offense, as Oshinowo's Eleven held a legitimately good offense (the Jets) to only 6 points. Thus, the Browns defense now rates as more or less league average. The surprise, perhaps, is the fact that the pass defense ranks 15th by DVOA while the run defense ranks only 24th. Impressively, in the last several weeks, with both Baxter and Bodden missing time for one reason or another, the Browns' pass defense has improved its performance in every conceivable way. Where they once rated horribly in covering passes thrown to #2 and "other" receivers, they now rate a laudable -7.6% and -9.7%, respectively. And they still rate quite strongly in defending passes to all the other types of receivers, too. Also, the defense has risen to 11th in the NFL in interceptions per drive (.099). I think credit is due to the entire secondary.

Now comes the bad news. The Chargers offense is a machine, third in the NFL in DVOA. And their strength is the passing game, which ranks 2nd in DVOA to only the Colts. Quarterback Philip Rivers ranks 3rd in the league in passing DVOA (38.3%), behind Peyton Manning and Damon Huard. Interestingly, 81% of Rivers' throws have been to one of four different players--tight end Antonio Gates, running back LaDainian Tomlinson, and wideouts Keenan McCardell and Eric Parker. And while McCardell and Parker have been the most effective targets on a per-play basis (30.8% and 30.7% DVOA, respectively, ranking them #4 and #5 in receiving DVOA among wideouts), Gates and Tomlinson have been by far the most frequent targets--alone they account for half of Rivers' throws. You hear a lot of people talk about Tomlinson and the ground game as the strength of the Chargers, but shutting down the passing game is the much more important objective for anyone hoping to limit San Diego's offensive success. Advantage: Chargers

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns  Chargers
total DVOA               3.7%      6.2%
FG kicking              -0.8       2.8
CLE kickoff vs. SD KR    1.3      -4.4
CLE KR vs. SD kickoff    5.2      10.3
CLE punt vs. SD PR       2.7       2.7
CLE PR vs. SD punt       1.1       4.6

The once mighty Browns special teams had one bad game and lo, they have plummeted down the rankings... all the way to 5th in special teams DVOA! Adding insult to injury, the Chargers have risen to occupy the Browns' old #2 ranking. So, last week when I wrote, "Will the Browns special teams ever again face an opponent that outranks them in even a single special teams category?", I was perhaps getting a little ahead of myself. Because the Browns are so overmatched on offense and defense this week, the special teams are going to have to bounce back big in at least one, maybe two areas. Slight advantage: Chargers

I, for one, do not expect the Browns to win this one (...that doesn't mean they can't). But, just as I was wary of over-stating the progress the offense made last week (because they were playing against the Jets), I would be wary of over-stating whatever colossal step backwards the Browns might appear to take Sunday in San Diego. And hey, if they do have a decent game, then perhaps we can start talking about major progress.

Hey everyone! Bud Shaw wants you to raise your expectations for the Browns! Or... maybe we're supposed to lower them. We're supposed to raise them because the Browns should be a better team by now, but then again we should lower them because the Browns weren't that good on Sunday. I'm confused.

Let it suffice to say that Bud Shaw senselessly rambles about football for a while. He even manages to sneak in a lame barb on Coach Crennel.

Crennel was a first-time head coach in his late 50s when he was hired. The question asked far more often than which year he'd hoist the Lombardi Trophy here was why it took so long to land a head-coaching job?

What did Savage and Randy Lerner see that so many league GMs and owners didn't?

Now, there's an obvious answer to that question. But it's one I don't feel like writing it out myself. Thankfully, I found somebody else who'd already done my work for me.

Seven NFL teams needed a coach last year. Five interviewed Romeo Crennel and apparently weren’t “blown away.”

Those numbers may fuel skepticism in regard to reports claiming Crennel absolutely wowed the Browns in his interview. But they don’t add up to a single negative conclusion about New England’s 57-year-old defensive coordinator.

Every coaching search is conducted in context — available candidates and philosophy.

...[Crennel] had the extra obstacle of coaching for a Super Bowl team last year. Anxious suitors simply don’t want to wait until February to hire the head coach.

Thank you LexisNexis, because on January 18, 2005, Mr. Shaw wrote those very words in an article titled "Time, team have come for Crennel". So, to answer Shaw's original question, it appears that what Phil Savage and Randy Lerner saw that so many league GMs and owners didn't was the exact same thing that Bud Shaw saw nearly two years ago.