Problem solved! With Maurice Carthon gone, the Browns finally established the run and the offense was unstoppable at times. Now with Jeff Davidson calling the shots on offense, the team is a lock to disrupt the playoff picture down the stretch, right? Right?

Let me first cover the things that went right this week: the defense played fantastic--the Jets could neither run nor pass effectively by the end of the game; Kellen Winslow had another monster game--cementing that he is among the elite tight ends in football--perhaps the best; and surprisingly, the Browns ran very effectively in the first half.

But not everything is so peachy for the Browns. What went wrong? The entire special teams unit seemed to suffer a major setback against the Jets. Phil Dawson's kickoffs fell shorter and shorter as the game wore on, and Justin Miller returned one for a touchdown. Joshua Cribbs muffed another punt. I think it's evident he's not much of a punt returner.

The most alarming thing to me was the breakdown of the offense in the fourth quarter. Since I qualified my earlier compliment to the running game, you should know that they didn't do too well in the second half. In the fourth quarter, needing to bleed the clock, Reuben Droughns was routinely stuffed at the line. In fact, on the Browns four final drives (not counting kneel downs), they gained a total of -2 yards. That's it.

I don't mean to be doom-and-gloom, but let's keep in mind that the Browns offense's problems aren't completely gone. Their success came when they played a little more unpredictably in the first half. Once everyone knew that Droughns was going to rush up the gut, of course he got nowhere. I was very encouraged by this game, and (extrapolating from way too small a sample size) I'd say we might have a legitimate offense on our hands, finally.

Corey says: Sorry to interrupt (I know, it's not my week to write the intro!) but I couldn't resist adding my two cents. Cent #1: whatever success the Browns had rushing the ball in the first half or at any other point was probably severely enhanced by the fact that the Jets' run defense is the worst in football (see my game preview). So let's not get carried away in assuming "the run game is fixed" and let's not get carried away in believing that this game is proof that "establishing the run" is how you score points.

On the other hand, cent #2: the rushing attempts on the Browns' last few drives may have been rather pathetic, but I don't have a problem with calling those plays in that situation. When the Browns are rushing up the middle for no gain in the first quarter, that's a problem. When they're doing it in the fourth quarter with a lead, that may not be ideal, but it's okay. And I think it's correct playcalling. The Browns had a couple of three-and-outs late in the game, but they still drained lots of precious time off the clock. And hey, it worked.

Play of the Week

Alex says: To cap off the first drive of the second half, Charlie Frye threaded the needle to Kellen Winslow for a beautiful 30-yard touchdown. Allow me to set the scene. The Browns had just run about 200 consecutive running plays. Faced with a 1st-and-10, I can only assume the Jets were expecting a run. The Browns then play-actioned, though I have no idea whether any defenders bought it. Thank you for that, TV cameras. Against only a three-man rush, Charlie Frye had all day in the pocket and made a seemingly perfect throw. Let's run that play more!

Corey says: I'll go defense with this one. The defense did allow only 6 points to the 12th-ranked offense in the NFL, after all. My Play of the Week is Leigh Bodden's deflection of a Chad Pennington pass in the first quarter, which ended up being the first of Sean Jones' two interceptions. The Browns only had one official sack in the game, but they managed to deflect a lot of passes (by my recollection) and were consistently able to disrupt the Jets' gameplan at the line of scrimmage. Especially impressive was the play of the secondary, considering their issues with depth and the fact that Leigh Bodden is not yet 100%. That they held the Jets to 108 passing yards is essentially the reason the Jets scored only 6 points. I would call this the best defensive performance we've seen so far in 2006.

Player of the Week

Alex says: The statbook may say Sean Jones had two interceptions, but my heart says three. Sean was disruptive to the passing game all afternoon. In addition to his multiple picks, Sean also tipped the ball on the Jets' second-to-last desperate, pathetic attempt of the game. Unfortunately, he followed that up by biting on a Chad Pennington-pump fake on the last play of the game--instead of notching his first career sack. For all the lip service paid to the Jets running game by Solomon Wilcots, they didn't produce much against the Browns: 3.3 yards per rush on 27 carries. Our man Jones had a hand in that. All five of his tackles came on rushing plays, four of which stopped the running back for three or fewer yards. Chris Crocker--who needs him?

Corey says: I could go with a few different players here, such as Reuben Droughns, Sean Jones, or football legend Leigh Bodden, but my Player of the Week is Kellen Winslow, who once again led the team in receiving yardage and is currently deserving of a Pro Bowl spot, according to any reasonable measure. I realize that Pro Bowl trips are awarded by the most subjective of criteria, thus Browns players are unlikely to be awarded even if their performance merits it. But let's ignore that for a moment and think about the Browns who possibly deserve Pro Bowl recognition this year. Kellen Winslow, absolutely. Josh Cribbs, absolutely. After that... Phil Dawson? Leigh Bodden? Am I missing anybody?

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"I think we showed today that we've got a running game that's established." --Joe Jurevicius

First of all, I always love a good mangling of an idiom like "establish the run", in the same way it sounds weird to say "a cat that's been let out of the bag" or "the bucket has been kicked". It's the linguistics major in me. As for the football implications of "Brave ensign Jurevicius's" comments, let's probe into what "establishing the run" really means. It can't mean just running the ball early in the game--the Browns have been trying that for weeks and everyone is agreed that they were failing. Establishing the run is continued success in the running game, especially if the defense knows a run is coming. Certainly, the Browns were much more successful on the ground this week. But at the end of the game when the offense tried to run out the clock, the Jets repeatedly stuffed Reuben Droughns. In the fourth quarter, Droughns averaged 1.4 yards per carry (including a long of three yards on a 3rd-and-13). The rush undoubtedly made an impact and helped propel the team to victory, but it'd be wise for anyone to abstain from jumping to conclusions about the power of the running game just yet.

Corey says:

"Where I jumped from, I made an effort to stay away from the sideline. I wasn't jumping toward the sideline, I was jumping straight up. I knew I was going to get hit, but I felt I was going to come down inbounds." --Jets TE Chris Baker, on the Jets' last offensive play

I don't have an opinion as to whether Baker's catch was a touchdown or not. Nor is it possible for anyone--including the official--to know whether Baker would have come down in bounds. This is why the "forced out" rule barely gets called. Even if Brodney had never touched Baker on that play, there might have been controversy about whether his foot came down in bounds or not (as is often the case). Asking the official to predict what would have happened is just silly. Of course, I cannot offer a solution to this problem, so perhaps I shouldn't be preaching.

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: Despite what we've seen from Borg Phil Dawson, long field goals have never really been his thing. Coming into this week, for his career, Dawson connected on 91% of field goals up to 40 yards. Beyond 40, Phil has only made 68% of kicks--which doesn't take into consideration that the Browns have often shied away from trying extra long field goals in less-than-ideal conditions. So congratulations are in order to Dawson for his 47-yard field goal. His kickoff distance may have been much worse this week, but hopefully we can chalk that up to some pretty strong winds coming off Lake Erie.

Corey says: This was a bad week for special teams. Regular heroes Phil Dawson and Josh Cribbs had terrible games by their standards. The opening kickoff, however, was quite spectacular, as Chaun Thompson, for the second straight opening kickoff, decimated the other team's return man. Last week Chaun nailed Quincy Morgan at the Broncos' 9-yard line. This week, he nailed Justin Miller at the Jets' 9-yard line. Who ever heard of a linebacker being the first responder on a kickoff? And being so unbelievably effective? Congrats, Chaun!

McDonald Oden Memorial Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: Third-string tight ends generally don't see much time with the first team offense. But, according to the official gamebook for the game, the Browns offense featured 1 WR, 1 RB, and 3 TE. To commemorate this interesting bit of roster shuffling, my Obscure Brown of the Week is Darnell Dinkins. Oddly enough, the press caught on to this tight end wackiness too, peppering Romeo Crennel with the same question about it over and over in the post-game press conference. The Browns were much improved at sealing off the edges on sweeps, likely due to overloading a side with tight ends. Perhaps Jeff Davidson is onto something.

Corey says: How about offensive tackle Kelly Butler, #71, who played the entire game in Ryan Tucker's absence? I didn't even realize Butler was next on the depth chart. I would have expected to see Nat Dorsey get some playing time. But Butler seems to have done a good job (99.9% of football fans who claim to be able to evaluate the performances of individual offensive linemen as distinct from one another are just kidding themselves). Hey, he has to have done something right to be named my Obscure Brown of the Week without having an unusual middle name!

Fashion Item of the Week

Alex says: In the Week 2 edition of Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns, I praised Dennis Northcutt for displaying his solid brown socks (which are a monstrosity) in a very thin strip--as opposed to the Kellen Winslows of the world. I'd like to welcome Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times hero Leigh Bodden to the growing group of Browns with some fashion sense! I can't find any photographic evidence right now, but rest assured, Leigh minimized his brown sock visibility. It was a thing of beauty.

Corey says:



Need I say more?

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: I'd like to one day write a series of "Roger Brown is a *" articles, but this space will have to make due for now. For you see, Roger Brown is my Idiot of the Week. Why, you ask? In his most recent article, "Plenty share in Browns' blame game," Brown assigns a preposterously precise share of blame to different contingents for the Browns' failings this year. Top of the list: the players. Okay, that's kind of understandable--they are the ones who are actually playing. Second to last: Maurice Carthon. Why? Hell if I know, apparently being a contrarian can get you a column at the Plain Dealer. Legitimate sports writing, here I come! As an aside, what is up with Roger Brown's hatred for Randy Lerner? Apparently he's more responsible for the Browns' poor play than either the GM or the head coach. Makes sense to me.

Corey says: How about the Jets coach--not sure if Eric Mangini or offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer calls the plays--who called that wacky play in the first quarter where Chad Pennington lined up at wideout. What, exactly, was to be accomplished by this? Naturally, the Browns didn't react at all, and the ensuing quarterback draw (by Brad Smith) was sniffed out for a 1-yard loss, so I'm not complaining. My point is that trick plays should serve a purpose. Let the defense think one thing is going to happen (for example: a sweep to the outside) only to have another thing happen (same example: the running back throws a pass).

Number of the Week

Alex says: 63.6%, or the percentage of Charlie Frye's passes that were directed to a tight end, meaning Kellen Winslow or Steve Heiden. With Dennis Northcutt sidelined and Travis Wilson banished to the underworld, the Browns have three wide receivers, including Joe Jurevicius as the Official Wise Veteran Who Doesn't Play Much But Talks A Lot To The Media. I can't think of another team in the modern era with so little depth at wideout. Hence the aforementioned plethora of three tight end sets. Kellen is making a very strong case for the Pro Bowl, thanks in large part to Frye. Charlie keeps pumping those passes in there. Thankfully, this week Kellen was open a lot.

Corey says: 19.5%, the Jets' run defense DVOA heading into this game--a number that is sure to rise (ie: get worse) when this week's DVOA report is published. I know I mentioned this already, but the Jets are really, really bad at stopping the run. Before facing the Browns, they ranked dead last in run defense DVOA and are now going to fall even further behind. Thus, kudos to Jeff Davidson for designing a gameplan catered to the Jets' weakness. I simply hope the Browns don't think that rushing success will come as easily (or be as valuable) against different opponents (for example, the Chargers, who host the Browns next week).

Moral Standings

Picking up their first win at home this season adds another emphatic moral win to the tally for the 2006 Browns. The Bengals couldn't hold an early lead and their comeback attempts were thwarted by the punchless Falcons. This deflating loss directly translates into yet another moral loss for a Cincinnati team in shambles, who were once 2-1. The Steelers took a collective crap on the field in Oakland this weekend. This pathetic crumpling deserves at least two moral losses--but lo, I can only give one. The Ravens may have triumphed by the archaic and all-but-meaningless measures the "NFL" tracks, but they were outscored 15-0 in the fourth quarter. A collapse of this magnitude cries of moral defeat!

            MW  ML   pct
Cleveland    8   0  1.000
Cincinnati   3   4   .429
Pittsburgh   1   6   .143
Baltimore    0   8   .000

Next week: The Browns travel to a town known only for having cute, cuddly pandas and hosting the world's largest annual nerd convention to teach those west coast pansies about a real man's game. In between stroking our manly beards and crushing things with our skulls, we'll be here to cover the complete decimation in yet another episode of Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns!

The Jets are tied for having the sixth-most wins in the entire NFL! Of course, you're not going to find anyone who'll argue that the Jets are, in fact, a candidate for sixth-best team in the NFL, but I do think they are a team whose record is causing people to overrate them a little. For one, their four wins are still accompanied by three losses. And in those four wins, the Jets' average margin of victory has been 6.25 points. And the four teams they've beaten have been Tennessee, Buffalo, Miami, and Detroit. No big accomplishment there. On the flip side, the Jets' three losses have come by an average margin of defeat of 17 points. Based solely on these facts, I would conjecture that the Jets' true level of performance so far this season is far below what their won-lost record currently suggests. Let's see if DVOA agrees...

As always, statistics in this game preview are borrowed from Football Outsiders' weekly DVOA reports. Click here to read a detailed explanation of how DVOA works.

Browns offense vs. Jets defense:

           CLE offense  NYJ defense
total DVOA   -21.4%        18.2%
passing      -19.8%        16.8%
rushing      -23.8%        19.5%

I have a tendency to think of NFL coaches, be they head coaches, coordinators, or whatever, as "[name of former boss] guys". For example, Romeo Crennel is a "Belichick guy". Butch Davis was a "Jimmy Johnson guy". Thus, both Maurice Carthon and new offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson are "Crennel guys"--but really, on the offensive side of the ball, at least, what is a Crennel guy? I don't think any of us knows. Carthon was actually more of a "Parcells guy" than anything else. Davidson, on the other hand, is purported to be more of a true "Belichick guy", which, I can only hope, means he is something of a "Charlie Weis guy". As I think about all these coaching family trees, I become slightly more optimistic for the Browns offense under Jeff Davidson than I was before. At the very least, all eyes will be on the offense this week. Personally, I will just be looking for some evidence that things will be different now, whether that's in the playcalling, the overall philosophy, or the results themselves.

Briefly, let's talk about the Jets defense. They rank 29th in the NFL in DVOA, and have been about as bad as the Browns offense has (that is, about 20% worse than league average). Their rush defense actually ranks last in the league; it will be "fun" to see how they handle the 31st-ranked Browns ground game. If the Jets have a defensive strength, it's generating turnovers; specifically, interceptions. They grab .171 turnovers per drive, 7th in the NFL, and .118 interceptions per drive, 8th in the NFL. This does not bode well for the interception-prone Browns offense. Rarely will you hear me say this, but perhaps this is one week for the Browns to implement a slightly conservative gameplan. Overall, I'm not sure either side has much of an advantage here, but because the Browns have the homefield advantage and the benefit of a Carthon-free sideline, I'm inclined to say: Slight advantage: Browns

Jets offense vs. Browns defense:

           NYJ offense  CLE defense
total DVOA     0.4%         7.2%
passing        3.2%         6.9%
rushing       -2.0%         7.6%

The loss of Gary Baxter for the rest of the season is absolutely killer. All season long, the issue for the Browns defense has been cornerback depth. They continue to struggle to defend passes to #2 receivers (33.0% DVOA, 27th in the league) and "other" receivers (21.4% DVOA, 24th in the league), while doing a pretty good job against #1 receivers, tight ends, and running backs. Frankly, I blame the Jets for this dilemma. If they had only been dumb enough to accept the Lee Suggs trade back in training camp, the Browns would have another credible defensive back (Derrick Strait... who, I should mention in the interests of full disclosure, is currently available, after being released by the Buccaneers...). Leigh Bodden, hero of heroes, is once again listed as questionable, and several news sources are now hinting that Jereme Perry may get the start alongside Daven Holly. I don't have to tell you, the outlook is not good.

The Jets offense has been about league average so far this year, but that's actually good enough to rank them 12th in offensive DVOA. If you recall, in the preseason, there was much ado about the fact that the Jets had no credible running back on the roster. Well, if you know my feelings on running backs, you know I don't believe this should ever have been cause for much concern. Sure enough, relatively unknown running back Leon Washington has needed only 71 carries to rack up 11.9 DPAR (5th in the NFL!) thanks to a DVOA of 26.7% (2nd in the NFL). Luckily, the Jets have given more carries (79) to starter Kevan Barlow (for whom they traded after the Lee Suggs thing fell through) than to Washington, and Barlow hasn't been nearly as effective (-14.1% DVOA), so let us hope this trend continues. Overall, Advantage: Jets

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns    Jets
total DVOA               8.5%     0.3%
FG kicking               0.9     -3.9
CLE kickoff vs. NYJ KR   7.3      4.7
CLE KR vs. NYJ kickoff   5.4      1.3
CLE punt vs. NYJ PR      3.2     -1.3
CLE PR vs. NYJ punt      2.0     -0.1

The domination continues! Will the Browns special teams ever again face an opponent that outranks them in even a single special teams category? Interestingly, this game will feature the NFL's top two kickoff return units. "Cribbs' Crazies", represented, of course, by Josh Cribbs, now rank first in the NFL in returning kickoffs, while the Jets, represented by return man Justin Miller, rank second. Meanwhile, the Browns punt team, "Zastudil's Zanies", ranks 3rd in the NFL, while the kickoff team, "Dawson's Borg Drones", ranks 4th. Advantage: Browns

All in all, I think this is a very winnable game for the Browns. The Jets are still the better team overall, but the matchups are all pretty close. Enjoy the game, folks--it should be a good one!

I am nothing if not extremely timely and prompt in everything that I write. Well, that and extremely honest. Also, I'm quite modest. Here are my 2006 Indians awards (see also Alex's 2006 Indians Awards):

Batting Line of the Year

Like C.C. Sabathia in 2005 and Jason Davis in 2004, an Indians starting pitcher put up a monster batting line in 2006. Congratulations to Jake Westbrook, whose line of .500/.500/.750 was good enough to rank him 12th on the team in batting VORP (2.1), miles ahead of such luminaries as Jason Michaels, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Andy Marte, and Aaron Boone. Jake's VORP also made him the 3rd most valuable hitter among American League pitchers in 2006. Here's how Westbrook's 2006 ranks among the all-time greatest hitting performances by an Indians pitcher:

                   year  VORP
1. Dwight Gooden   1999   2.3
2. C.C. Sabathia   2005   2.2
3. Jake Westbrook  2006   2.1
4. C.C. Sabathia   2003   1.7
5. Jaret Wright    1998   1.6
6. Jason Davis     2004   1.1

Gamer of the Year

A gamer, for those of you who aren't racists familiar with the term, is a baseball player who generally exhibits the qualities of white skin hustle, dirt on the uniform, "doing the little things", being a lunch-pail kind of guy, giving himself up for the team, being a sparkplug, and not being black or Hispanic hustle. Also, a player usually gets extra gamer points if he's bad at hitting. (See also: Holiday Inn Look Again Player of the Year Award.) Anyway, I'm going to have to give my Gamer of the Year Award to--who else?--Joe Inglett. Joe really fits the bill; he's scrappy, tough, little, scrappy, tough, and not that great a hitter. These qualities were enough to endear him to Cleveland media and fans alike, convincing them, because he was making his major league debut in 2006, that he was a young new prospect, when in fact he was 28 years old and had probably already hit his peak while still in the minor leagues.

Scoreboard Graphic of the Year

Hands down, the winner is the "Boooooone" (later "Choooooo") graphic that sometimes appeared on the long horizontal scoreboard in the left field wall at Jacobs Field before an Aaron Boone (later Shin-Soo Choo) at-bat. This graphic featured the letters in "BOONE" (later "CHOO"), only with lots of extra O's, in front of some scenery from the video game Super Mario Bros. 3 (specifically, scenery from this level or one like it). After thinking hard about the possible connection between Aaron Boone and Mario 3, my brother posited that it was because "Boooooone" sounds like "Boooooo" which is what a ghost might say, and the scenery in question depicts a ghost house. OK, I'm willing to buy that. Of course, when they switched the graphic over to "Choooooo" it stopped making sense altogether. Which only made it all the more awesome. Let us hope this fine scoreboard graphic and others like it become a part of the Jacobs Field graphics package in 2007.

Asian of the Year

Before the '06 season began, only three men born on the Asian continent had ever suited up for the Indians. One of those men, Danny Graves of Vietnam, had his second tour of duty with the Tribe in 2006 (and by "had his second tour of duty" I of course mean "really really sucked"). So he is not my Asian of the Year. Luckily, two other Asian-born players debuted with the Tribe this year. I could go with Shin-Soo Choo of South Korea--who had a pretty good 45 games (.295/.373/.473) after coming over in the Ben Broussard trade. But instead I'm going with Tom Mastny of Indonesia, who pitched 20 league average innings at the end of the year despite being on absolutely nobody's prospect radar when the season began. It's well established that all Indonesian boys yearn to one day play baseball in the United States, but Mastny became the first person born in that country ever to make it to the major leagues. Plus, he's a little more of a gamer than Choo (wink, wink). Congratulations, Tom! Good luck defending your title next year.

Standings of the Year

Okay, this is not an award per se (or at all), but there is just one more point I want to make--this one serious--and then we can all go ahead and not think about baseball for a solid month or two. The Indians' 2006 winning percentage of .481 ranked them 10th in the American League. This is a very bad place to rank, and pretty much sums up how most people feel about the 2006 Indians. Meanwhile, the Indians' 2006 third-order winning percentage of .548 ranked them 7th in the American League. Still not a great rank. Consider, though, that if the Indians were in the National League in 2006, their third-order winning percentage would tie them for 1st place in the NL! Here are final MLB 2006 third-order standings:

              W3      L3      pct
Yankees      97.4    64.6    0.601
Tigers       91.8    70.1    0.567
Twins        91.4    70.6    0.564
Blue Jays    90.9    71.1    0.561
Angels       90.8    71.2    0.560
White Sox    89.2    72.8    0.551
Mets         88.7    73.2    0.548
Indians      88.7    73.3    0.548
Dodgers      87.2    74.8    0.538
Padres       86.8    75.2    0.536
Rangers      86.7    75.3    0.535
Athletics    82.8    79.2    0.511
Red Sox      82.1    79.9    0.507
Phillies     80.5    81.5    0.497
Astros       80.5    81.5    0.497
Mariners     79.8    82.2    0.493
Rockies      79.5    82.5    0.491
Braves       79.0    83.0    0.488
Diamondbacks 79.0    83.0    0.488
Giants       77.6    83.4    0.482
Marlins      77.9    84.1    0.481
Cardinals    75.8    85.2    0.471
Reds         75.2    86.8    0.464
Orioles      73.9    88.1    0.456
Brewers      73.2    88.8    0.452
Nationals    71.7    90.3    0.443
Cubs         70.7    91.3    0.436
Devil Rays   66.9    95.2    0.413
Pirates      66.8    95.2    0.412
Royals       66.4    95.7    0.410

My point is that the Indians were probably the 8th-best team in the majors in 2006, but were still only the 4th-best team in their own division, in a year when one league (the AL) happened to be absolutely stacked with all the good teams. That and a little bit of bad luck combined to give the Tribe a losing record. In other words, the outlook is not so bleak for 2007. In fact, I would say the Indians' 2007 playoff chances are pretty damn good--not because I'm an optimist, not because it suits me, not because I'm so young that I haven't yet been jaded by the misery of Cleveland sports--but because I'm a realist, plain and simple.

Rejoice, Browns fans of Earth!

Browns fire Carthon

I don't know how else to complain. Perhaps if I do it in list form:

Top 5 Gripes About the Browns Offense Vis-à-Vis Maurice Carthon

Mind you, these are only my top 5. I could go on for days.

5. Inflexibility. All throughout the bye week we were told they were fixing the offense, "throwing out the bad plays" (what would be left?), et cetera, et cetera. Yet we just saw possibly the worst offensive performance of the season so far (possibly). All that good talk during the bye week was nothing more than more evidence that the Browns coaching staff does not even understand what the problem is, let alone how to fix it. Throwing out a couple of "bad plays" does you no good if you're still going to use the ones you have left incorrectly.
4. Interceptions. Yes, the interceptions are mostly the quarterback's (and sometimes the receiver's) fault, but Carthon is not helping matters by waiting so long before opening up the passing game. You wonder why so many of Frye's interceptions seem to come in the fourth quarter? Perhaps because the other team knows the Browns will be passing in the fourth quarter. I'm willing to bet many of the exact same passes don't get picked off if they're run earlier in the game (which they're not).
3. The same mundane shit over and over again. The Browns do get a few first downs a game. They do occasionally manage to hit Kellen Winslow up the middle for 9 or 10 yards. They do occasionally attempt a long bomb to Braylon Edwards (which is occasionally complete, but occasionally intercepted). But these occasional plays represent the most imaginative thing we ever see from the Browns offense. The rest of the time, it's like watching the same five plays on repetitive loop. I don't mean to imply that a trick play or two will solve all the team's woes--it won't--but at least it will make the game more fun to watch. Think of the TV ratings, Maurice!
2. Plays on 2nd down that are designed to get you only a portion of the yards you need. This drives me nuts--it will be 2nd-and-10 and the Browns will run a play that, even in the best of cases, is only going to get them 5 yards. The logic, I guess, is that "you have 2 plays to gain 10 yards, so you just need to gain 5 yards on each play." Much like baseball managers (cough, Dusty Baker) who eschew walks and on-base percentage because they don't like "clogging up the bases", I envision Maurice Carthon thinking to himself, "You don't want to gain a first down on first down, then you never find yourself in any short-yardage situations, and half your playbook goes out the window!"
1. Rushing plays. Seriously, I'm through with them. Not only have the Browns' rushing attempts been pathetic for years now (let's be honest: Reuben Droughns was no better in 2005 than the combination of William Green and Lee Suggs was in 2004; just look at the numbers), but they attempt their rushes in all the wrong situations. I wish I could somehow revoke Maurice Carthon's rushing privileges, and tell him "You're not allowed to rush again until you have at least a 9-point lead in the second half of a game."

Sigh. I see someone has got www.firemauricecarthon.com up and running. Maybe they can do a better job than I can. And now your regular items...

Play of the Week

Alex says: With Jake Plummer and Charlie Frye having a contest to see who could throw the most dropped interceptions (personally, I think Charlie won; but that's just me), the Browns defense had ample opportunity to make an exciting play or two, but could only turn the trick twice. The first time, though, was pretty incredible. Leon Williams, the ROLB, blitzed unblocked, forcing Jake Plummer to rush a throw. Jereme Perry was blanketing David Kircus--tipping the pass and then miraculously kicking the ball back up into the air. Gary Baxter was covering a receiver around 15 yards away, but followed the pass and dove to make the beautiful catch. Most cornerbacks wouldn't have been in position to make that interception. To which the always insightful Randy Cross said, "An excellent play: tipped in the air; kicked off the foot; nothing but net."

Corey says: Overall, I feel the defense--in particular the front seven--played pretty well. The secondary had its share of struggles, however. I agree that Gary Baxter's interception was the Play of the Week; unfortunately, this may be the last time we get to praise Baxter in 2006. Reports now hint that his knee injury may keep him out for the rest of the season. Woe is us! Leigh Bodden truly is our last remaining hope (unless Babatunde can play cornerback, of course).

Player of the Week

Alex says: With the offense playing at 2001 Browns levels, the special teams being mostly held in check, and the defense performing undistinguished, who is there to honor? Looking at the box score, you'd see that Kamerion Wimbley only made five tackles--decent, but not standout. However, culling the official play-by-play data, I found that all of Wimbley's work was impressive: tackle of Tatum Bell for a 5-yard run on 2nd-10; tackle of Bell for a 3-yard reception on 2nd-10; tackle on Bell again for a 2-yard run on 1st-10; knockdown of Jake Plummer on an incomplete pass on 1st-10; tackle of Mike Bell this time for a 3-yard loss on 1st-10; and a tackle of Tatum Bell for a 2-yard loss on 1st-10. To my untrained eyes, it also seemed that Wimbley played well fundamentally, and avoided being burned on any rookie mistakes.

Corey says: Wimbley had a pretty good game, certainly. But so did Dave Zastudil, who, in all his Bay Villageness, has been solid all year long but hasn't gotten much credit yet on this blog. Allow me to apologize for the oversight. Against the Broncos, Dave punted 6 times: one was downed at the 2, another was fair caught at the 15, another went out of bounds at the 14, and another was a 61-yarder that ended up being a net 68-yarder. Pretty good, no?

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"Well, we'll have to take a look at it and evaluate it and see." --Romeo Crennel

This is in response to an unknown reporter's thinly-veiled question of "Coach, do you foresee any changes in personnel or the coaching staff in the near future?" The prospect of Maurice Carthon being dumped in this coming week is exciting. Certainly though, any change wouldn't be noticeable immediately. But Carthon is definitely not the man to lead a young (and, LeBron willing, upcoming) Browns offense. I'm secretly hoping, though, that Carthon is allowed one last hurrah, à la Chris Palmer's "Please Don't Fire Me" game in Week 16 of 2000. When else will be we see Josh Cribbs taking snaps and a double-reverse or two? (Corey interjects: Alex, are you sure the "Please Don't Fire Me" game was Week 16 of 2000 and not Week 15?) Anyway, as the pressure builds on Maurice Carthon and the offense, I'd just like to remind everyone that anti-Carthonism has a long and storied history here at the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times. Corey appropriately summed up our shared disgust in the Week 17 edition of Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns last season, saying, "I waited most of the season before passing judgment on Carthon, but now I am a firmly against him."

Corey says:

"He said he was going to end my career and I didn't like that one bit. You read things in the paper or hear them on the field, you know they aren't that serious. But when somebody talks about your career, that's serious. You can meet me outside at the bus." --Quincy Morgan, referring to Mason Unck

For some context, this occurred after Chaun Thompson stopped Morgan at the Denver 9-yard line on the game's opening kickoff return. I have only two things to say about Quincy's comment here. First, I thought his career was already over, for all intents and purposes. And second, I would enjoy watching the meeting of Quincy Morgan and Mason Unck "outside at the bus." Quincy, I'm sorry, but you've been Unck'd! You're not the first, and you won't be the last.

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: Joshua "MTV" Cribbs may have dropped the ball, but Dave Zastudil was there to pick it up. In the first of many punts on the afternoon, DZast perfectly deadened the ball inside the 5, such that Mason Unck could down it at the 2. Two things you may have missed: Mason Unck's goofy little dance after downing the ball, which consisted of jumping up and down, and Brodney Pool was totally blocked in the back. It was blatant. If the referees had called the penalty, Denver would've been backed up all the way to the 1-yard line. It would've changed the face of the game.

Corey says: For once, the kicking teams outshone the return teams. The above-mentioned punt was quite extraordinary, but so was the above-above-mentioned kickoff (the game's opening kickoff), which Borg Phil Dawson booted into the endzone, in true Borg Phil Dawson fashion, and which Quincy Morgan then carried out to the 9-yard line before getting obliterated by Chaun Thompson. Go, special teams, go!

Jamal (Not Jamel) White Memorial Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: Derek Anderson may have only handled one snap, but what a snap it was! In all seriousness, did anyone have any idea that Anderson had leapfrogged Ken Dorsey on the depth chart? Barring injuries, which is a pretty big barring, Anderson may not see any more snaps as a Brown. Charlie Frye is firmly entrenched as the starter, and neither Anderson nor Dorsey look to be strong candidates for backup next year, to me at least. I think the team is hungering for that elusive "veteran presence". So let's applaud Derek while we can. Kudos to you, Derek, with your one snap you vaulted up to #2 in "Greatest Derek Andersons in Cleveland Sports History".

Corey says: Never have I been at a loss to come up with someone--anyone--to name my Obscure Brown of the Week. And this week is no exception! I'm dipping into the practice squad, which happens to be a veritable treasure trove of awesome names. Seriously, peruse the list some time. Anyway, congratulations to tight end Buck Ortega, an undrafted rookie out of Miami. Buck is actually one of two Browns tight ends who used to play quarterback (along with Darnell Dinkins). He also may or may not moonlight as an actor in pornographic films.

Fashion Item of the Week

Alex says: When the NFL introduced the new uniforms for referees this past off-season, most enlightened fans mocked the new threads. But with the seasons changing, as they've been known to do, the referees are breaking out the cold weather gear. And this, my friends, is what ugliness is all about. I'm sure these new shirts are better protection against the cold, but the NFL has to decide: are they shirts or are they jackets? If shirts, then dull that shiny finish and remove some of the extraneous stuffing. If jackets, for LeBron's sake, don't tuck them in!

Corey says: It's been at least a month since last we rallied against the injustice that is the Browns' socks. This may not be a new item, but I don't want the powers that be forgetting that we're fighting for a cause, here! Down with the all-brown meshuganah! Bring back the stripes! (Say it with me...) Bring back the stripes! Down with the brown!

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: It pains me to do it, but Charlie Frye's antics in recent weeks have been wearing thin on me. I am by no means advocating his benching, or anything of the sort. But Frye's statistics have been exceptionally bad two games in a row, and four out of six times this year. Against the Broncos, he threw a terrible interception, and contrary to sage Randy Cross's explanation, unless there was a sudden wind gust upwards of 150 MPH, the ball couldn't have been blown that far off course. Also, since Charlie was second in the league in rushing PAR in Week 1, he's rushed for 27 yards on 14 carries, for a Droughns-like 1.92 yards per carry. For the season, Charlie has thrown for 5.91 yards per attempt--placing him in the company of passing greats like Joey Harrington and Andrew Walter.

Corey says: Randy Cross is one of the worst football announcers, and that's saying something. His distinctive brand of "Cross Talk" consists of making no sense and misinterpreting everything that happens on the field. Case in point: his #1 key to the game: "make this the week." Make this what week? And who was supposed to make this the week? I got the impression the Browns were supposed to make this the week, but at the end of the game, when they started recapping Cross' bullet points, they said something like "Yep, Denver sure did make this the week!" What do you know? Cross was right all along! I guess "making this the week" was the key to the game!

Number of the Week

Alex says: 7.14%, or the Browns' success on third- and fourth-down conversions against Denver. Things started well, as Charlie Frye and Joe Jurevicius hooked up for 15 yards on the Browns' first third down of the afternoon. Then things turned south. Three times the Browns were faced with a third- or fourth-and-one, and each time they failed. Reuben Droughns was stuffed for no gain the first time, Charlie Frye was sacked the second time, and finally Charlie Frye threw a lame duck that was almost intercepted the third time. Want another depressing statistic? Counting Charlie's interception as no gain, the offense averaged just over one yard on third and fourth down. Something is fundamentally wrong here.

Corey says: 45.5%, Phil Dawson's updated touchback percentage. This number still leads the NFL by a significant margin. Phil only kicked off twice against the Broncos, but one was a touchback (and the other would also have been if Quincy Morgan knew what was good for him). Combine the fact that Phil Dawson has the second-highest average kickoff distance (69.5) with the fact that the Browns allow the league's shortest average kickoff return (19.1) and the fact that Dawson has had so many touchbacks thus far, and it's no wonder the Browns have the league's best net kickoff average (50.4). Generally, as the weather gets colder, kicking distances in the northern cities decline, so i guess we'll see if Dawson is up for a challenge.

Moral Standings

Try as they might to keep the Browns from scoring any touchdowns, the Broncos just couldn't stop the Frye-to-Jurevicius magic. Moral victory! Elsewhere in the division, the Bengals eked by with a narrow moral win over Carolina, the Steelers suffered yet another humiliating defeat, both moral and actual, and the Ravens, despite having a bye, couldn't emerge from their season-long shame spiral, earning yet another moral loss.

            MW  ML   pct
Cleveland    7   0  1.000
Cincinnati   3   3   .500
Pittsburgh   1   5   .167
Baltimore    0   7   .000

Next week: The Browns get themselves righted with a severe thrashing of the New York Jets, as Alex and I phone in yet another exciting edition of "Born and Raised". See you then!

Last week, we saw the Browns' NFL-leading games played streak come to a grinding halt. I have a strong premonition, however, that the team will begin a new streak this Sunday. Let us preview:

As always, statistics are borrowed from Football Outsiders' weekly DVOA ratings. Click here for a detailed explanation of how DVOA works.

Browns offense vs. Broncos defense:

           CLE offense  DEN defense
total DVOA   -23.0%       -14.9%
passing      -24.7%       -15.5%
rushing      -20.7%       -14.2%

It doesn't look pretty for the offense, which, despite the bye week, has fallen to 31st in the NFL by DVOA. The problems are numerous, obviously, but one of the big ones is the fact there are simply too many turnovers. Looking at the very interesting drive stats over at Football Outsiders, we see the Browns currently commit .230 turnovers per drive--the 2nd-worst such mark in the NFL. They throw .148 interceptions per drive (also 2nd-worst) and lose .082 fumbles per drive (9th-worst). Luckily, the Denver defense, while quite strong overall, is not a turnover-driven defense. They intercept .075 passes per drive, ranking them 18th among NFL defenses. In total, they pick up .132 turnovers per drive (15th in the NFL).

The media is currently going banoodles over the Denver defense because they have allowed the fewest points per game (7.4) and the fewest points total (37). You may have read articles or heard talk about the "historic pace" of this vaunted defense. But DVOA ranks them as only the 8th-best defense in the NFL. Why the discrepancy? Well, Aaron Schatz addressed this last week on the Football Outsiders blog. Essentially, the reason is that the Broncos have been ridiculously good in the red zone. They allow their opponents to move the ball down the field, but they keep them out of the endzone. Aaron suggests a few reasons why this trend is not likely to continue (just read the blog post), and I tend to agree with him. I guess my point is, the Denver defense is not as good as everyone is saying they are, but it doesn't matter--they're still quite good, and the Browns offense is still extremely bad. Huge advantage: Broncos

Broncos offense vs. Browns defense:

           DEN offense  CLE defense
total DVOA    -5.6%         9.2%
passing      -17.8%        11.4%
rushing        5.6%         6.7%

Here we have a matchup of two units that have failed to meet expectations. The Broncos currently rank 19th in offensive DVOA, after ranking 4th in 2005. The Browns defense, despite multiple personnel upgrades in the front seven, has failed to improve on its 2005 DVOA of 5.4%. This, however, can probably be attributed to the catastrophic injuries they've suffered at the cornerback position. Looking at the Browns defense's DVOA vs. different types of receivers, we notice that they are quite strong against tight ends (-42.8%) and running backs (-14.7%), and have even been halfway decent against #1 receivers (4.9%). But they have struggled mightily to defend passes to #2 receivers (33.0%) and "other" receivers (21.4%). This suggests a problem with depth in the secondary, which is exactly the problem the Browns defense has had.

So when can we expect the triumphant return of a healthy Leigh Bodden and Gary Baxter? Both are listed as questionable for Sunday's game, but Coach Crennel has said he expects both to play. Good thing, too, because the only Bronco receiving target who's been worth much of anything this season has been #1 receiver Javon Walker. Observe the drop-off:

                thrown to  DPAR    DVOA
J. Walker (WR)     34      10.1    28.2%
R. Smith (WR)      29      -1.7   -24.4%
T. Bell (RB)       15      -4.2   -64.1%
T. Scheffler (TE)  13      -4.2   -61.3%
S. Alexander (TE)  10       0.4    -3.3%
D. Kircus (WR)      8       1.2     6.5%
M. Bell (RB)        6       0.7    16.2%
K. Johnson (FB)     5      -0.4   -25.8%
C. Sapp (FB)        5      -1.5   -62.8%

That's pretty severe. I don't want to over-simply things, but if the Browns can contain Walker, they have a very good chance of shutting down the Denver passing game altogether. I know the DVOA totals suggest the Broncos have the slight overall advantage in this matchup, but if Baxter and Bodden truly are healthy, I'm inclined to believe the Browns defense is better than its 9.2% DVOA. Let's just say, Advantage: Neither

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns  Broncos
total DVOA               9.7%    -0.3%
FG kicking               0.9      1.3
CLE kickoff vs. DEN KR   5.5      0.8
CLE KR vs. DEN kickoff   4.2      2.1
CLE punt vs. DEN PR      2.7     -2.1
CLE PR vs. DEN punt      4.5     -2.7

The Browns have the second best special teams in the NFL. They've steamrolled the opposition in almost every area. Leading the charge are the kickoff return team, ranked 2nd in the NFL, followed by the punt team (3rd), the kickoff team (4th), and the punt return team (5th). While Borg Phil Dawson has thus far shown the unique ability to kick for both power and accuracy, as evidenced by his impressive number of touchbacks and his field goal success rate, his field goal kicking overall has been merely league average (14th in the NFL), perhaps because the Browns have been reluctant to let him attempt any really long kicks yet (they must still be waiting for the Borg nanotechnology to assimilate fully). Personally, I'd like to see Dawson attempt one or two long ones, if only to be able to tell if this business with all the touchbacks is a fluke of mystical wind patterns or a legitimate boost in Phil's kicking distance. Meanwhile, I think it's time to recognize Josh Cribbs as a Pro Bowl-caliber special teamer, and not only for his long returns. His frequent tackles as the gunner on both the kickoff and punt teams are extremely reminiscent of Leigh Bodden in the magical special teams campaign of 2004. It almost brings a tear to my eye! Advantage: Browns

Well, there you have it. The Broncos are not without their weaknesses, and the Browns are not without their strengths, but once again, the Browns are the underdogs heading into this showdown. Let's all hope for a couple of lucky bounces. Enjoy the game, Browns fans!

In the grand Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times tradition of promising a post and then not delivering until much, much later, here comes the third and final edition of "Are They Improved?". The first time around, I looked at the starting lineup; which I followed with a look at the bench.

Mercifully, Cavaliers Overlord Dan Gilbert fired Ronnie Duncan following last season. Filling his shoes will be someone annoying, although to a lesser degree. Certainly no one could do any worse than Duncan did. Sadly Michael Reghi was shown the door as well. Due to the proximity of Reghi's departure to Duncan's, I secretly got my hopes up for Reghi to work the public address system, but it wasn't to be. He seems more than qualified for it and it would be right up his alley, what with his emphatic style of speaking and all.

Speaking of Reghi, he'll be replaced by former Piston play-by-play man Fred McLeod--thus bringing Dan Gilbert's dream of Detroit II one step closer to fruition. Sure, that's not giving McLeod a fair shake and I admittedly have not heard him work his magic yet, but this move reeks a little too much of Detroitism for my taste. Gilbert openly reveres the Pistons--he justifies basically every organizational decision by declaring that the Pistons do it too--and now he goes out and hires himself a Pistons announcer. Even though the Cavaliers had a perfectly good one who the locals are fond of. As they say on Best Week Ever: downgrade.

In "Are They Improved? The Bench", I bemoaned with a bemoaning-type tone the Cavaliers' critical dearth of point guards. I even counted Shannon Brown and Daniel Gibson as possible replacements for Eric Snow, but nobody expects them to see time at point guard. So, testing the limits of "scraping the bottom of the barrel", the Cavs signed David Wesley, he of the 9.6 PER in 2006 and a projected PER of 8.2 in 2007. I shouldn't say too much though, because Eric Snow is projected to have a PER of 7.3, which makes my brain hurt. No worries though, both Wesley and Snow are chock-full of veterany goodness and wisdom, which more than accounts for the fact that they suck. I mean, it has to, right?

Last time around, I also touched on the overstock of mediocre shooting guards. My friends, overstock no more! Oft-injured argyle socks-enthusiast Luke Jackson was traded to Boston for some guy named Dwayne Jones. The team basically traded a guard who'll never play for a forward who'll never play, plus minimal salary cap space. I'll miss Luke and his crazy PAC-10 hair, but honestly, the deal sounds fine to me.

On the court, the Cavaliers are definitely a flawed team, but a team on the rise nonetheless. The starting lineup should be minimally improved by the "addition" of a healthy Larry Hughes and the progress of LeBron James. The bench also should be slightly improved by bringing in Shannon Brown and Scot Pollard. Off the court too, things are looking up. Ronnie Duncan is gone (praise LeBron), but so is Michael Reghi. That's a net improvement, but things could be better. A lot hinges on the performance of Fred McLeod.

All else equal, the Cavaliers should be an improved team (at least during the regular season), due to another year of experience: Mike Brown is a year wiser and the core players have been together a year longer. Things can shake out many different ways this season, but the Cavaliers for now are serious contenders in the Eastern Conference.

This week, we're breaking from tradition. Every week of the NFL season for the past two years, Corey and I have churned out formulaic responses to silly categories like "Fashion Item of the Week" and "Obscure Brown of the Week". But here comes the bye week, and what are we to do? Two years ago, the Browns' bye fell closer to mid-season, so we composed a halfway-point recap. Last season, with the Indians looking to clinch a playoff spot in the last week of the regular season, we wrote a "Born and Raised on the Cleveland Indians". Talk about your all-time backfires.

In 2006, though, we're taking the bye week edition of Born and Raised in a different direction. Corey and I receive a ton of e-mails from readers. These letters range from asking for our opinions on the news items of the day to rebuffing the claims we make right here to barely coherent stream-of-consciousness writing (I'm looking at you, Robert Westbrook).

Well, these e-mails have been piling up in our inbox for quite some time. And as much as we'd like to respond in a timely fashion to each and every one, sometimes we just don't have the time. I'm personally busy working my 13 full-time jobs while also taking 26 credits at night school to finish up my BA. We barely have enough time each week to compose our meager little Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns... except for today.

Finally given the opportunity to do some mass-replyin', we're emptying the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times inbox bit by bit. We're sorry to all the readers who have written in and waited for a long time to get a response, but today is your lucky day! And to all of you whose letters we weren't able to get to this week, there's always next year!

Without further ado, let's answer some letters.

Dear Rubin Brothers,

I think the problem with the Browns offense has been poor execution. Irregardless, can you please recommend some good plays for the Browns offense to run?

Maurice C.
Berea, OH

Corey says: You're entitled to your opinion, Maurice, but personally, I feel the bigger problem has been the playcalling. So, although I don't think I'm qualified to recommend any specific plays, I'd be happy to offer some general playcalling advice to you--er, I mean, to the Browns.

The first thing to understand is the true relationship between rushing, passing, and overall success. I've said it many times before, but the conventional wisdom about "establishing the run" to win is just plain wrong. Whatever correlation exists between rushing yardage and winning is solely the result of teams rushing at the end of games to run out the clock. Rushing well has very little to do with actually scoring points.

Consider this graph showing the relationship between rushing success and overall offensive success through the first 5 weeks of 2006 (click to enlarge):



The correlation is weak at best. Some teams have both rushed well and done well overall, but then again, plenty of teams have done well overall despite rushing poorly, while other teams have rushed well, but been bad overall.

Now, look at the graph comparing passing success to overall success (click to enlarge):



Now that looks more like a linear relationship. No team has been effective on offense without having some success in the passing game; conversely, every team that has had success in the passing game has been effective on offense overall.

Really the only outlier so far in 2006 has been the Atlanta Falcons. In fact, over the last few years, the Falcons have been the only team that has had any kind of success on offense without a decent passing attack. And their rushing performance has had to be ridiculously good (2nd in rushing DVOA in '04, 5th in '05, 2nd in '06) just to make their overall offensive DVOA halfway decent (23rd in offensive DVOA in '04, 11th in '05, 22nd in '06). Of course, the Falcons running game is rather unconventional--much of their success comes via quarterback runs. Certainly, it would not be prudent to compare the Browns running game to the Falcons', let alone to model the Browns' running game on the Falcons'.

That is why the important thing for the Browns is to do well in the passing game. And I believe the best way to do this is to spread the field. The defense only has 11 guys to cover the entire field--by spreading them apart you make the job of each individual defender harder. This would not only give you more opportunities for big plays, it would make the middle of the field (ie: Kellen Winslow territory) much more wide open and free of defenders. The Browns' best two weapons are Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards, (a wide receiver whose specialty is using his height and speed to catch long passes).

And yes, I know you--er, I mean, the Browns--have a quarterback who is prone to interceptions, but is throwing an interception on a long bomb any worse than the usual three-and-out followed by a punt?

In summary, Maurice, I advocate more long passes (and more passing in general) in the first half of games. Then, if you have a lead of any kind, and only if you have a lead, I advocate running the ball and using up as much clock as possible.

Hey guys,

I love statistics. Could you post some advanced statistics showing the strengths and weaknesses of the Browns this season? Thanks a bunch, and keep up the good work!

Corey
Cleveland, OH

Alex says: You got it, Corey. Anything for a fan.

Coming into Week 6, the Browns rank 24th overall in Football Outsiders team efficiency metric, DVOA. This number does not take into account any preseason predictions. The offense and defense have both been poor, ranking 28th and 24th respectively in the NFL in DVOA. Personally, I believe the defense to have outshone the offense by a mile so far in 2006--but the statistics don't lend much credence to that.

Everything on the offensive side of the ball has been pathetic. The passing game is 29th in the NFL and rushing 25th. Yes, you read that correctly. The Browns have been more efficient (relative to the other teams in the league) at running than throwing the ball. A deeper look into the numbers reveals this to be due to the scrambling prowess of Charlie Frye. He has been the third-most valuable QB running-wise (behind Michael Vick and Donovan McNabb) this season. In fact, he's been 4 points better than Reuben Droughns by DPAR (3.6 to -0.6). Yes, Droughns has been below replacement level so far. Not that I blame him--the playcalling and offensive line play leave a lot to be desired.

Defensively, the Browns fare a little bit better, but not much. They're 21st in the league at stopping the pass, and 24th against the rush. In the passing game, the Browns have been league average at containing #1 WRs, and better than average against tight ends and running backs coming out of the backfield. Their Achilles heel has been passes to any non-#1 WR: they're 26th in the league on passes to #2 WRs, and 24th on passes to other wide outs. This reflects the scant amount of time the top corners have been healthy. For most of the season, the Browns have had Leigh Bodden to cover the #1 and a scarecrow made out of old newspapers and wire hangers to cover #2-4.

On the bright side, the Browns special teams are 2nd in the NFL in efficiency--being especially strong on kickoff coverage and returns. You can thank Joshua "MTV" Cribbs and the new-fangled Borg Phil Dawson for that. Also, Kellen Winslow is second to Desmond Clark in receiving DPAR among tight ends. Thus proving that 90% of Kellen Winslow is better than everyone else in the NFL... except for Desmond Clark.

Hey guys,

How come the Browns have no token Corey this year?

Hakeem
Portland, ME

Corey says: I don't know why, Hakeem, but this is a very disturbing development. Everyone knows that an NFL team must always have a token Corey on the roster. This Corey usually plays on defense, though not always. In recent years, the Browns' token Coreys have been FB Corey McIntyre, DE Corey Jackson, and CB Corey Fuller. We can only hope that Phil Savage has plans to acquire a token Corey before season's end, because without one, the Browns are surely doomed.

Dear Mistake at the Lake Sports,

I love your websites. Are you interested in selling advertsiing space on your web sites for GetItNowTickets247Awesome.com?

Julie Davner
President, GetItNowTickets247Awesome.com

Alex says: Dear Ms. Davner,

After mulling it over with our lawyers and the boys in the financial department, our official response is that we here at Mistake at the Lake Sports are honored by your request, but respectfully decline your offer. We are dedicated to bringing to our readers the absolute best coverage of Cleveland sports with the occasional mailing-it-in. Therefore, advertising would not be feasible.

Please die,
Alex Rubin

Dear Mistake by the Lake,

My uncle says the Ravens are the best. But you said they aren't. I'm so confused!

Timmy Billick
Baltimore, MD

P.S. My uncle is a genius.

Corey says: Well, Timmy, I don't want to imply that your uncle isn't a genius, but I think he may have fallen victim to the same phenomenon that took hold of many members of the media following the Ravens' 4-0 start. The Ravens' record, to put it simply, is a fluke of a small sample size. The defense has been spectacular, I'll grant them that, but the offense has been awful. Offensively, the Ravens currently rank 27th (one spot ahead of the Browns) in DVOA. In the last 2 weeks, we've seen the Ravens struggle to score points, and both times they have lost. In the first 4 weeks, we saw them beat three awful teams (Oakland, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland) and even in those games, the offense wasn't great. Anything is possible in such a small sample size as one NFL season, but I still think you'd be wise to bet on the Ravens missing the playoffs this year, Timmy.

Gentlemen,

That game was brutal, could you believe that filth? The Brownies gave up 22 points in the fourth quarter and that is just unacceptable. Even though Holcomb threw for 429 yards, ya gotta like that. Gotta say though, great analysis fellas, and I guarantee you the Browns future is looking bright. Butch Davis is definitely the man to lead this team into the future.

Steve
Mansfield, OH

Alex says: Steve, sorry it's taken so long to get back to you, but you're right: the defense was just awful in the 4th. Just when we should've been tightening the screws on Maddox, Fazio falls back into the prevent. They were begging for a collapse. As for Butch Davis, now that I've had a little more time to reflect on his reign, I feel that his personnel decisions were the ultimate cause of his downfall. The team that made it to the playoffs was put together by the ultimate dream team: Dwight Clark and Carmen Policy. If only those two had stuck around with Butch running the show on the field, who knows what would've happened!? Instead, Davis was spread thin between coaching and general managing, and the team--no, the city--suffered.

Dear Mistake Sports Times,

Kellen Winslow may be leading the Browns in DVDA or whatever, but I will never support him because he compared football to war that one time, and that is disrespectful. Don't you think he needs to stop running his mouth off?

V. Gates
Laramie, WY

Corey says: I'm fine, thanks. Wie gehts es Ihnen? Regarding Kellen Winslow, I am not put off by his infamous "soldier" remark. Is comparing football to war any less ridiculous than, say, Bill O'Reilly's referring to the use of "Happy Holidays" in place of "Merry Christmas" as "the War on Christmas"? Or when your neighbor mows a little section of your lawn by accident and you say, "This means war!!!" I don't mean to offend you, V. Gates, but our society reveres the concept of war way too much, and war, frankly, is not something to be revered. It is something to be regretted, even when it is a necessary means to an end. As for the larger issue of Kellen Winslow running his mouth off... personally, I could care less. I am only interested in how he performs in the games, and thus far, he has been spectacular.

Yo fellas,

I was watching the Broncos game this weekend and I noticed that not only do they have the entire Browns defensive line from a few years ago, they have Quincy Morgan and Chad Mustard. So my question is: who will Denver sign next?

Boris
Thousand Oaks, CA

Corey says: Good question, Boris. Just to recap, the list of 2004 Browns who have spent time in Denver this season now includes Kenard Lang, Courtney Brown, Gerard Warren, Ebenezer Ekuban, Michael Myers, Amon Gordon, Corey Jackson (the token Corey), Quincy Morgan, and Chad "Stadium" Mustard, not to mention defensive line coach/voodoo witch doctor Andre Patterson. Clearly, the Broncos are trying to re-live the glory of the 2004 Browns! Anyway, my bet for next Broncos signee is definitely Mistake by the Lake legend Eric Lebron Westmoreland. Let us only hope that the good people of Denver are able to appreciate him.

Moral Standings

Following a running theme, the feeble Cincinnati defense collapsed in the final minutes to secure themselves another moral loss. Baltimore couldn't hold off the potent Panthers passing offense, also collecting yet another moral loss in the final minutes. Pittsburgh seemingly dominated all afternoon, but gave up a Chiefs touchdown late in the third quarter and had another KC score nullified by penalty in the fourth. Sure, they may have won on the scoreboard, but everyone in the stands knew that the Chiefs were the better team. Moral loss. As for the Browns, normally a team is inactive during the bye week. But due to the tremendous strides taken by the entire team by doubling down and working hard in practice, not to mention avoiding injuries, the Brownies managed to eke out yet another moral victory. This is turning out to be quite the impressive season for second-year head coach Romeo Crennel.

            MW  ML    pct
Cleveland    6   0  1.000
Cincinnati   2   3   .400
Pittsburgh   1   4   .200
Baltimore    0   6   .000

Next week: With the week off to study film and heal up, the boys of the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times make their triumphant return with another edition of Born and Raised. Coincidentally, the Browns will also make a triumphant return to the gridiron against the laughable Denver Broncos. We'll be here to cover both historic events in all their intertextual glory with another edition of Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns!

For the third consecutive year, Corey and I will be wrapping up the baseball season by handing out some intangible hardware, creatively named "Indians Awards". And for the third consecutive season, the Indians chose to end the season on a sour and/or boring note, making this all the more difficult to write. Never fear, I've mailed it in on much harder topics, like exceptionally brutal Browns games or LeBron Day 1989. The best part of this article (for me, not for you) is that since I go first, I get to choose the easy categories. Hooray!

Hitter of the Year

As if there was ever any doubt, this season Travis Hafner led the Indians in home runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, walks, grand slams, and a lot of other stuff. On most other teams, Hafner would've also been the team leader in runs, hits, batting average, and the rest--but that is a testament to the great seasons had by other Indians, especially Victor Martinez, but especially Grady Sizemore. Personally, I believe Pronk to be the 2006 AL MVP. He led the league in OPS, VORP and VORPr (a rate-stat version of VORP), among other alphabet soup statistics. Leading in VORP and VORPr means that not only was he the most productive hitter in the AL in 2006 cumulatively, he was also the most valuable hitter on a per-at-bat basis. And don't forget that VORP knocks Pronk because he's a DH--it's positionally-adjusted. Making his summer even more mind-blowing, in my opinion.

2006 AL leaders in VORP:

Travis Hafner, CLE   80.4
Derek Jeter, NYY     79.2
David Ortiz, BOS     75.8
Grady Sizemore, CLE  69.8
Carlos Guillen, DET  67.0

2006 AL leaders in VORPr (min. 100 PA):

Travis Hafner, CLE   .616
Manny Ramirez, BOS   .516
Derek Jeter, NYY     .490
David Ortiz, BOS     .488
Joe Mauer, MIN       .468

Pitcher of the Year

I may have lampooned C.C. Sabathia's lack of consistency a couple weeks prior, but he was the Indians' best pitcher this season. There are two ways to reach this conclusion. The first is by process of elimination: the bullpen was terrible all season, so all relievers are disqualified. As for starters, Paul Byrd was below average; Jake Westbrook was his normal groundball-inducing self, but suffered quite a bit due to poor infield defense; Cliff Lee was once again overratedly league-average; Jeremy Sowers was fantastic, but his 90 innings aren't enough to outpace him from this year's winner. Using the other method, Sabathia led the team in ERA, ERA+, WHIP, H/9, K/9, K, K/BB, PRAA, et cetera. Not to mention that C.C. is definitely the best hitting pitcher on the team, maybe the AL. He's probably better than Aaron Boone.

Rookie of the Year

When the season turned to crap, the front office called up the kids, giving me quite the pool to select from for this category: Andrew Brown, Fausto Carmona, Shin-Soo Choo, Ryan Garko, Franklin Gutierrez, Joe Inglett, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Juan Lara, Andy Marte, "The Starta' from Jakarta" Tom Mastny, Edward Mujica, Rafael Perez, Kelly Shoppach, Brian Slocum, and Jeremy Sowers. Cutting through the chaff, Dr. Fausto, L'il Joe Inglett, and Jeremy "Sweet and" Sowers were the only Tribe rookies to amass more than a win and a half in value, according to Baseball Prospectus's WARP1. In fact, Sowers blows the competition away in WARP. Actually, he blows the competition away in anything. It's a shame he only played half a season, because he was fantastic. If 2006 hadn't been the year Joel Zumaya, Justin Verlander, Boof Bonser, and Francisco Liriano all made an impact on the AL Central race, fans definitely would've heard more about Sowers. He was better than anyone could've hoped for a rookie starter.

Minor Leaguer of the Year

Choosing from only the full-season teams (Buffalo, Akron, Kinston, and Lake County), Kevin Kouzmanoff had the best 2006 of any Indian farmhand. He was so good--how good was he?--that he led both the Aeros and the Bisons in OPS. Discounting his cup of coffee in Cleveland, he hit .379/.433/.656! That's approaching what LeBron would hit blindfolded and with His hands behind His back, people. Sidebar, Your Honor: is "The Kouz" a good nickname? On the one hand, it's catchy. On the other hand, it sounds obscene and reeks of uncreativity.

Indians Website of the Year

As much as I'd like to call the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times the best Indians website, it really isn't. With Joe Ptak of CIR taking another one of his patented unannounced extended leaves-of-absence, Ryan and Jay of Let's Go Tribe stepped it up a notch. For any Indians fan hungering for breaking news or a place to say your piece about the team, this website should be a daily visit. Personally, I can't keep up with every game thread--there's only so much time in the day. But I think Let's Go Tribe breaks down roster decisions, potential trades, free agent pickups, and the like better than any other source, including the Plain Dealer. Also, anyone spreading the good word of sabermetrics to Indians fans is doing a great mitzvah.

That's all I got for now. Don't worry Tribe fans, this isn't it for our analysis of the 2006 season. Corey will be by shortly with his own rendition of "Indians Awards", most likely later this week. And then we're bound to go on another trademark Mistake by the Lake "statistical rampage" very soon! And then we might not talk about the Indians for a long, long time.

I'm not worried about the Browns defense (missing all their cornerbacks, they gave up only 13 this week against a pretty good offense). I'm certainly not worried about the special teams. I'm not even worried about the coin toss technique. No, like most of you, I'm worried about the offense, which has two major problems, as I see them. First, Charlie Frye throws too many interceptions. I think we've now seen enough of him to come to that conclusion fairly. But he is still improving and I think we can expect his interceptions to become less frequent, especially if the pass protection gets its act together.

The big problem, though--get ready to be shocked--is the playcalling. I'm not going to run through the whole spiel about what's wrong with the playcalling again--I'm redundant but even I have my limits--except to say that, after a couple of slightly encouraging games against Baltimore and Oakland, we saw a very disheartening return to old habits this week against Carolina.

Resisting... urge... to repeat... angry rant... let's just get right to your regular items.

Play of the Week

Alex says: In the third quarter, Joshua "MTV" Cribbs received a John Kasay kickoff at the Browns 6 and rocketed up the field. He zoomed past all but two Panthers: he easily dispatched Kasay, but was brought down by Richard Marshall at the Carolina 30-yard line. On this play, Cribbs showed off his great speed--although I believe any competent kickoff returner could have made this great play. That's no knock on Cribbs, who I think is among the best returners in the NFL, but rather a compliment to the other 10 men on the kickoff return team. It's too bad these guy only get to strut their stuff a few times a game.

Corey says: Come on, Browns. I love special teams about 60 times as much as a sane football fan should, but there's a reason we have a separate category for special teams plays. You're supposed to do cool things on offense and defense, too! The offense's longest gain was a 23-yard pass to Kellen Winslow that helped set up a field goal. And while the defense played well, there were no turnovers, no game-changing stops, or anything like that. So I'll go with Cribbs' 64-yarder as well.

Player of the Week

Alex says: Phil Dawson accounted for all the Browns' points in this week's game, obviously. But what might be getting overlooked is his astounding improvement on kickoffs. As Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders says, "The most underrated aspect of an NFL team's performance is the field position gained or lost on kickoffs and punts." Four times did Human Phil kick off against the Panthers (not including his squib with :05 left); two resulted in touchbacks, one was received at the goal line, and one at the 3-yard line. Here are the estimated point totals accumulated by the Browns' kickoff teams since 1999, according to Football Outsiders: -0.9, -4.5, 1.4, 0.8, 2.9, 1.1, 2.6. Through last week, Dawson and his brethren had already cruised past the New Browns high, set in 2003, with a total of 4.8. Factor in the great performance this week, and that number is bound to improve.

Corey says: My Player of the Week is Josh Cribbs. The guy is having a breakout season, there's no question. If all continues, by season's end, he'll have a reputation just like Dante Hall's and possibly even be Pro Bowl bound. This week, he took over emergency backup punt return duty and immediately ran one back 34 yards. On top of that, he made two outstanding tackles of Panthers return men, for good measure.

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"Takes the snap, takes a knee, and the ballgame is over. It wasn't the most beautiful of kills, but the Panthers were able to get the Cleveland Browns wrapped up in their coils, and finally constrict the life right out of them." --Panthers radio play-by-play announcer Mick Mixon

First of all, is this guy's name really Mick Mixon? That has to be a joke, right? Anyways, Mixon comes up with one of the worst, most forced metaphors for a football game I've ever heard. It'd be one thing if the Carolina team had something, anything to do with snakes, hopefully constricting ones. Maybe the Pythons or something. But no, they're the Panthers. Perhaps Mixon should have said,

"Takes the snap, takes a knee, and the ballgame is over. It wasn't the most beautiful of kills, but the Panthers were able to ambush the Cleveland Browns from behind with a strike to the back of the neck. The team will now bury the carcass of the Browns so they can return for later feeding during the coming week."

Corey says:

"As a secondary, we don't look at moral victories. We came out with a loss. We came up short." --Brian Russell

Well, my suspicions are confirmed. Brian Russell probably doesn't read this blog. Moral victories are all we have! (And we have plenty.) I guess Brian won't be joining the rapidly growing list of sports celebrities--such as Otto Orf, Babatunde Oshinowo, and Moondog--who have read this blog.

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: Joshua Cribbs' kickoff return must also be the Special Teams Moment of the Week, because I'm not no hypocrite. With Dennis Northcutt out for the rest of the game, Cribbs also made good on a couple punt returns--showing he's an equal opportunity special teams dominator. Assuming that Northcutt returns healthy soon, I wonder if Special Teams Coordinator Jerry Rosburg could devise some way to use both simultaneously during a punt return. Northcutt fielding the kick and then faking a reverse to Cribbs could really mix up the opponent, no? Also, why is it that the one exciting facet to the Browns must be the least important one?

Corey says: What more is there to say about one long kickoff return? How about giving some credit to the blockers? On this particular return, the lead blocker was Lawrence Vickers, while others involved were D'Qwell Jackson, Steve Heiden, Mason Unck, and, well, that's all I could make out from the grainy footage I could find online. But congratulations to the rest of the guys, too!

Ermal Allen Memorial Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: The Browns have wisely avoided any toss sweeps to Lawrence Vickers on third down since the disastrous Week 1, but Vickers got another moment in the spotlight on Sunday. On 3rd-and-1 early in the third quarter, the Browns seemed to run yet another of those doomed Vickers toss sweeps, but wait! There's more! It's a halfback pass! Like any non-quarterback, Vickers immediately gives away that he's passing as soon as he touches the ball. As an aside, why doesn't any running back bother trying to "sell" the run? With no one open, Lawrence chooses the extremely foolish thing to do: lob the ball down the field. Fortunately, it wasn't intercepted. I don't blame Vickers for failing to convert key third downs when asked to, I blame the coaching staff. Why run a halfback pass on 3rd-and-1? The risks outweigh the possible gain, especially since gaining only one yard would be extremely beneficial.

Corey says: I'm going with newly promoted defensive back Jereme Perry, #31, a rookie undrafted free agent from Eastern Michigan. Now, Jereme was brought up from the practice squad last week at the expense of Browns legend Babatunde Oshinowo, so he has a lot going against him. His middle name, however, is Jovon, so, just to show that I'm 100% fair and balanced, I'm naming him my Obscure Brown of the Week. Don't abuse the privilege, Jereme.

Fashion Item of the Week

Alex says: With Paris Fashion Week just wrapping up, there's no better time to critique couture. I, for one, am no fan of the Panthers' jerseys. You'd be hard pressed to find a more bland, less creative uniform in professional sports. Which is all the more amazing considering that the Carolina jerseys are relatively new, being designed just 10 years ago. Sure, the use of teal is eye-catching, and gives the team a certain "pathetic southern Florida strip mall" quality. I particularly hate the incomplete stripes on the Carolina helmets, which are inexplicably not parallel. They always make me think that the player's skull is cracking down the middle and his brain will fall out. But that's just me.

Corey says: Kudos to defensive coordinator Todd Grantham for his keen fashion sense. Grantham is often the only Browns coach who doesn't wear the NFL-sanctioned coaches gear during games. He can usually be seen convulsing on the sidelines in his bright orange jumpsuit--an excellent choice! In 2006 so far, most NFL coaches have been wearing those ugly tennis shirts with whale's tail-shaped splotches on the upper back--but not Todd!

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: Maurice Carthon, for once again sinking the Browns' hopes for a victory. Thirty-one times against the Panthers did the offense have a fresh set of downs (including plays later nullified by penalties). On 13 of those 1st-and-10s, Carthon chose to run the ball with a halfback. In the first half, the team tried especially hard to "establish the run"--on nine of fifteen first downs did they hand the ball off. The result of all this establishment was rather pathetic: 1.85 yards per carry, leaving the offense with an average 2nd-and-8.15. This is clearly not an effective way to put pressure on the defense. In fact, I'd say it's a great way to put pressure on your offense.

Corey says: I think of Maurice Carthon more as the Idiot of the Season. My Idiot of the Week is going to be the ref who overturned the fumble recovered by Leon Williams on a Dave Zastudil punt early in the third quarter. The play would have set the Browns up in field goal range; instead the Panthers took their undeserved possession and scored a field goal of their own. That's a minimum swing of 6 points, maybe even 10. It sure looked like a fumble to me!

Number of the Week

Alex says: 8.79, or the Browns offense's average yards-to-go on third down. Just a bit ago, I chided Maurice Carthon for setting up the offense to fail, and here we see more evidence of this. If the offense is left with a 2nd-and-8 or 9 most of the time thanks to an infatuation with poor rushing, of course they're going to be stuck with difficult situations on third down. It should be no surprise then that the Browns managed to convert only two of their fourteen third downs.

Corey says: 45.0%, or Phil Dawson's NFL-leading touchback percentage through the season's first 5 weeks. The second-highest player, Olindo Mare, is not even close, at 33.3%. Now, this is just ridiculous. Are we talking about Phil Dawson here? From 1999-2005, the guy booted 26 touchbacks in 424 attempts, for a percentage of 6.1%. Suddenly he's on pace to have more touchbacks in 2006 than in his entire previous career?! Longtime readers of this blog know that Phil (aka "Human Phil") has an evil robot doppelgänger ("Robot Phil") who has incredible kicking strength, but lacks his namesake's accuracy on field goals. Alex and I became aware of this during careful observation of the 2004 season, in which Phil sometimes made all his field goals (but, characteristically, lacked kickoff power), and sometimes missed all his field goals (while seemingly demonstrating some kickoff power). Not once in 2004 did Dawson both make and miss a field goal in the same game. This weekend in Carolina, however, we saw Phil do the unthinkable: go 4-for-4 on field goal tries, and boot several long kickoffs out of the endzone. Now, what I am about to propose may horrify you--certainly it will shake the scientific community down to its very core--but it is the only conclusion we can draw: Phil Dawson has found some unholy way of combining himself with his own robot doppelgänger! He's no longer Human Phil Dawson, he's... he's... some kind of Borg Phil Dawson! Oh, the horror! (But hey, I'll take it!)

Moral Standings

The Browns' hot moral start continues, as they completely destroyed the Panthers in "noticing positives that they can build on in the future". The Steelers suffered a humiliating moral defeat at the hands of San Diego, while the Bengals enjoyed a moral bye. The Ravens fall to 0-5 with a crushing moral loss that will begin later this evening on Monday Night Football.

            MW  ML    pct
Cleveland    5   0  1.000
Cincinnati   2   2   .500
Pittsburgh   1   3   .250
Baltimore    0   5   .000

Next week: No rest for the weary--the Browns have a bye, but you wouldn't know it from reading our blog! We'll come up with tons of pointless drivel to help your Monday go by extra-quick, on a very special edition of "Boooooorn..... and Raaaaaaaaised!"

Few rivalries exist in the NFL like Browns-Panthers. The anticipation of this storied matchup is just killing me, so let's get right to the preview!

With a quarter of the season played, we're finally ready to switch to plain old DVOA in our game previews. For completeness' sake, though, and because it's still kind of early, I'm also including DAVE (DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early) which is weighted to account for Football Outsiders' pre-season projections. This week's numbers are taken from this page. A detailed explanation of how DVOA works can be read here.

Browns offense vs. Panthers defense:

              CLE offense  CAR defense
DAVE (weighted) -12.9%         0.2%
total DVOA      -15.0%         4.9%
passing DVOA    -13.5%        25.6%
rushing DVOA    -16.8%       -12.9%

The Browns offense rates a lot better this week than it did last week. I'm betting that has more to do with the fact that the numbers are finally adjusted for strength of opposition than with the Browns' performance in Oakland. The bright spots for the offense have unquestionably been Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards. Kellen currently ranks 2nd among all tight ends in receiving DPAR (8.2, trailing only Dallas Clark's 8.4, and with a commanding lead over the 3rd-ranked L.J. Smith's 4.7) and 5th in receiving DVOA (34.1%). Braylon, on the other hand, ranks 15th among all wide receivers in receiving DPAR (8.1) and 17th in receiving DVOA (23.8%).

The good news for the Browns is that the Panthers defense has been weak against the pass, ranking 27th in the NFL in pass defense DVOA. The even better news is that the Carolina secondary's biggest problems have been in defending passes to #1 receivers (50.2% DVOA, 27th in the NFL) and tight ends (36.6% DVOA, also 27th in the NFL). This means there is a very good chance that either Kellen Winslow, Braylon Edwards or both will have a game to remember.

Of course, the news is not all good. Outside of Winslow and Edwards, there have been few bright spots. The Browns continue to rank poorly in rushing offense (27th in DVOA), while the Panthers have been quite strong at defending the run. It may not surprise you to learn that the Browns offensive line currently ranks last in the NFL in Adjusted Line Yards, at 2.81. I hope we won't see the team revert to its stubborn philosophy of "establishing the run" in the first couple of series, because that could spell trouble. Likewise, if the Browns are able to generate a lead, they may not have as easy a time protecting it as you might expect. There are definitely things for the Browns to exploit this Sunday, but the Carolina defense is still a better unit overall. Slight advantage: Panthers

Panthers offense vs. Browns defense:

              CAR offense  CLE defense
DAVE (weighted)   6.0%         1.9%
total DVOA        1.0%         7.5%
passing DVOA     -3.3%         7.7%
rushing DVOA      6.5%         7.2%

So far this year, the Panthers' offensive strength has been their running game. Backs DeAngelo Williams and DeShaun Foster have each racked up 4.4 DPAR, tying them for 15th in the NFL. However, Foster has had basically twice as many carries as Williams (267 to 135). Which means, on a per-play basis, Williams would have to have been the better back. Sure enough, Williams ranks 5th in the NFL in rushing DVOA (20.5%), while Foster has been league average (0.4%). Foster has also been worst in the NFL in receiving DPAR by a running back (-4.2) so I'll definitely be rooting for him to get as much playing time as possible.

The Carolina receiving corps has two stars: 2005 receiving DVOA and DPAR champion Steve Smith, (currently 27th in DVOA and 30th in DPAR), and Keyshawn Johnson (currently 7th in DVOA and 6th in DPAR). After those two, there aren't any players worth fretting over. Unfortunately, the Browns depth at cornerback is still quite decimated. Leigh Bodden and Gary Baxter are both listed as questionable, and while the three-headed monster of Daven Holly, Ralph Brown, and Antonio Perkins did a nice job last week against Oakland, they will have a hard time repeating against a team with a decent quarterback, let alone an MVP-caliber receiver like Steve Smith. Advantage: Panthers

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns  Panthers
DAVE (weighted)          3.7%      0.1%
total DVOA               7.2%      1.5%
FG kicking              -1.2       5.4
CLE kickoff vs. CAR KR   4.8      -2.0
CLE KR vs. CAR kickoff   2.2       0.1
CLE punt vs. CAR PR      1.5      -2.6
CLE PR vs. CAR punt      3.4       1.3

The Browns special teams have ranked highly all year but after last week's dominate-a-thon, they've ascended to 3rd in the NFL in special teams DVOA (and 2nd in special teams DAVE). Which units are leading the charge? Uh, almost all of them. The field goal kicking has been nothing great, but the kickoff team has been 5th-best in the NFL, the kickoff return team has been 5th-best, the punting team has been 5th-best, and the punt return team has been 3rd-best in the NFL. The Panthers, on the other hand, have had the 2nd-best field goal kicking the NFL, but rank near the bottom in most of the other categories. Advantage: Browns

The schedule gets extremely tough for the Browns, starting this week. But let's not assume just yet that we're headed for another top 10 draft pick. No one's saying the Browns are going to win this one (least of all me), but I think I have shown how they actually match up kind of well against the Panthers. At the very least, I have shown you a couple of very realistic ways an upset could take place. Carolina oughtn't to have an answer for either Kellen Winslow or Braylon Edwards. Carolina could shoot itself in the foot by relying too heavily on the extremely overrated DeShaun Foster. The Browns special teams have a very good chance to do something quite special. All in all, it should be another exciting one.

From my popular commercial analysis series...

If you've watched any playoff baseball so far, you've probably seen this advertisement:

Tommy Lasorda: What do we got?

Lady: They're all in the cabinets. Cleveland fans.

Lasorda: Hit it, kid.

[a kid plays the organ]

Lasorda: You guys can't handle October without your Indians?



So your team's been knocked out. Big deal! Bunch of babies!



But you're baseball fans! Right? Now get out of there!





I live for this, you live for this, and the whole world lives for this!



To the TV!!!! Watch the postseason on FOX!

Fin.

Now, this commercial is stupid on a few levels. For one, Tommy Lasorda himself is an idiot (really). For two, the concept is idiotic. People hiding in kitchen cabinets? Because what, they don't want to watch baseball? Of course, after an extremely persuasive speech by Mr. Lasorda in which his only arguments are (a) you are a coward, and (b) you like baseball, we're all extremely pumped to watch some FOX! Whoo!

But mostly, this commercial offends me as a Clevelander. The message is that people from Cleveland are a bunch of confused drones who can no longer face the outside world once their team is eliminated from contention (in which case these guys have been living in their kitchen cabinets since... I don't know, June 1st?).

It's clear to me that the producers of this commercial wanted to feature Pittsburgh fans, but under intense pressure from the powerful ketchup lobby, were persuaded to create anti-Cleveland propaganda instead. Thus, I hope you'll join me in watching as little postseason baseball as possible. Or at least changing the channel during the commercials.

They cannot keep us down forever! Rise up, children of the Western Reserve!

And, uh... go Cavs?

That certainly felt nice. The Browns may have played like crap for the first half, but coming away with a win is the ultimate redeemer.

I originally planned to use this introduction space to get all Roger Brown on your ass and tell everyone why we shouldn't get excited about the Browns. But, of course, everyone already knows not to get excited about the Browns--they're 1-3, not 3-1. And that one win, exciting it may have been, was against undeniably one of the worst teams in the NFL. And, even then the Browns only squeaked by.

Instead, let's concentrate on the uplifting aspects of yesterday's game, like the continued improvement of Braylon Edwards or that Kellen Winslow sometimes seems untackleable. Or, most importantly, that Babatunde Oshinowo did an excellent job willing his teammates to victory on the sideline. And, thanks to a halfway decent rushing game, I have no ammo for use against Maurice Carthon.

The road ahead looks pretty tough, with the Jets being the only mediocre or worse opponent until Week 16. So let's enjoy this while we can.

Play of the Week

Alex says: On the opening drive of the third quarter, down by 11 points, the Browns were faced with a conundrum: 4th-8 on Oakland's 31-yard line. Thankfully, Maurice Carthon and Romeo Crennel had the guts to go for the long conversion, and it worked--thanks to a 22-yard catch-and-run by Kellen Winslow. Two plays later, the Browns scored a touchdown. I think the coaches' hand was forced a bit, Phil Dawson had already missed a 48-yard field goal--plus he would now have to kick off the infield dirt of McAfee Stadium. Although most coaches are overly risk-averse when it comes to going for it on fourth down, I don't think 4th-8 is the time to keep your offense on the field.

Corey says: Rarely do we allow our Play of the Week to be a defensive play. After all, other than turnovers, individual defensive plays have to add up over time in order to represent positive achievement. It's hard for one play to be truly game-changing. So, acknowledging that other individual plays had more of an overall impact on the game (and with a major tip o' the hat to Orpheus Roye's tackle for a loss on 4th-and-1 at the end of the game), I would like to name Kamerion Wimbley's gorgeous, death-defying sack of Andrew Walter in the third quarter. I'm no scout, but Wimbley always looks like such a great finisher when he approaches the quarterback. He's running, he's running, and then whoosh--he's flying through the air--and enveloping the quarterback like a spider web. Last year, the Browns' pass rush was pathetic. This year, it has looked pretty good so far.

Player of the Week

Alex says: Hooray for 100-yard rushers! Because as we all know, the Browns only won because Reuben Droughns hit that magical number. Never mind that Lamont Jordan had 128 yards on the ground, or that the Raiders out-rushed the Browns nearly 2:1. All of this is a red herring, of course, because my Player of the Week is Joshua "MTV" Cribbs. He may have only touched the ball on two plays, but on those two plays, Cribbs had an incredible influence on the Browns' field position, ergo their chances of scoring.

Corey says: The fact is that 17 of the Browns' 24 points were essentially scored as the natural result of extremely excellent field position (with drives starting at the Raiders' 32, 43, and 17 yard-lines, respectively). For this we have the special teams to thank. So with a tip o' the hat to Dennis Northcutt and his blockers, my Player of the Week is also Josh Cribbs. His first long kickoff return was all speed, as he outraced the entire Raiders team down the sideline, while the second long return was all about key blocks, as Cribbs zigged and zagged his way up the middle of the field. Great job, kickoff return team!

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"I think that you're going to see what kind of character this organization has--both its coaches and its players. Are we going to fold, or are we going to fight and continue to believe that we can make it to the Super Bowl?" --Lamont Jordan

First of all, Mr. Jordan looked lovely in his army fatigues during the press conference. I find it just a little dubious that anyone associated with the Raiders, from Al Davis down to the ball boys, believes this team can make the Super Bowl. And given that some players on the team were reported to be mailing it in during Week 1, the smart money is on the Raiders folding rather than fighting. Their tenacity was on display when they put up a valiant effort in the second half... right?

Corey says:

"I should get fined for letting the kicker tackle me." --Josh Cribbs

Hmm, an interesting concept. Although, it would mean that, financially, Josh would be better off taking a knee in the endzone each time around instead of trying for a long return. Of course, listed at 250 pounds, Sebastian Janikowski is by far the fattest kicker in the NFL. John Hall of the Redskins is listed at 240, but no one else even comes close. The next-fattest kicker Cribbs will have to face this season is the Steelers' Jeff Reed, at 225 pounds, and we all know he'll probably just curl up in a little ball and suck his thumb when he sees Josh barreling down on him.

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: Anyone can call the outcome of a game (except apparently Corey)--games are long and can essentially only go one of two ways. Plays, however, can end in a myriad of ways. Like a touchdown, for instance. Josh Cribbs' first kickoff return, in the second quarter, really really really looked like a touchdown to me. And, as the other fans at the New York City Browns Backers will attest, I called it! I predicted that Cribbs would take it all the way, and he did. Sort of. I'm curious what kind of day he could've had if only Darnell Dinkins and Lawrence Vickers hadn't each fielded a kickoff.

Corey says: If this were a Raiders blog (I know, I know... shudder), then the Adam Treu Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week might very well be Josh Cribbs' other long kickoff return (the 53-yard one, not the 65-yard one), for no other reason than kicker Sebastian Janikowski's acrobatic tackle to save a certain touchdown. Consider the irony, then, of this very play being named my Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week. The 65-yarder (on which Cribbs allegedly stepped out of bounds) set up a field goal, but this return set up a touchdown (Frye to Darnell Dinkins). Honorable mention goes to Dennis Northcutt's fine, fine 58-yard punt return in the third quarter, which also set up a touchdown (Frye to Joe Jurevicius). On that return, it was Raiders punter Shane Lechler who made the score-saving tackle. Nice try, Raiders kickers, but your impressive tackling skills only served to delay the inevitable! Mwahahahaha!

Rex Bumgardner Memorial Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: Darnell Dinkins is the most forgotten of the Browns free agent additions, because he's neither famous (LeCharles Bentley, Willie McGinest, Ted Washington, Joe Jurevicius) or from Cleveland (Bentley, Jurevicius, Dave Zastudil, and Bob Hallen). In fact, he's pretty obscure and from Pittsburgh. Darnell did good on his first action of the season--catching a one-yard touchdown. I think Darnell has one of the more interesting paths to the NFL on the team. He played quarterback in high school, and joined Pitt as a QB. He was quickly moved to free safety at school. After college, Dinkins went back to QB for a semi-pro team in Pittsburgh. Then he caught on with the Giants, who shipped him to NFL Europe as a tight end. Things went a little more normal from there. These days, more and more is being made of quarterback-to-wideout transitions like Matt Jones or Antwaan Randle-El, but did you have any idea there was a quarterback-to-tight end out there?

Corey says: My Obscure Brown of the Week is backup center Lennie Friedman. You may remember Lennie from that little fiasco we like to call "2006 Training Camp Parade o' Snappers" (which was recently chronicled in an article on Football Outsiders, in case you're interested). Besides being a "National Football Hall of Fame inductee" (according to his bio on the Browns' official site), Friedman is one of our great nation's few Jewish pro athletes. Thus, today being Yom Kippur and all, allow me to atone for a few sins by apologizing to all those wonderful Obscure Browns I've neglected over the years. I'm so sorry, Kris Briggs! And L'Shana Tova to you, Lennie!

Fashion Item of the Week

Alex says: I'm really at a loss for words when it comes to fashion items this week. So let me address something that tangentially related, since both are aesthetically related. For his press conference, Romeo Crennel didn't get to sit at a table. Instead, he was pinned to the wall by a sea of reporters shoving microphones in his face. This is a common sight in football. But what struck me most is the hand in the lower right-hand corner of this picture:



As far as I can tell, that's one hand holding the mic for WKYC, KTVU (a San Francisco FOX affiliate), and someone too cheap to have a cool microphone with your name on it (probably a radio station). I understand the consolidation of hands holding microphones since there is only so much space around Romeo's strikingly handsome face, but it would seem that this is quite rare among reporters. It's especially weird that a California and Ohio station would share a mic-holder.

Corey says: If it ain't broke, don't fix it! Why oh why oh why, Leigh Bodden, did you unveil a new hairstyle this week? With your cold, calculating dreadlocks, you were able to shut down any receiver in the NFL, be he Chad Johnson or Bethel Johnson. But with your new, wild, unpredictable, decidedly neither cold nor calculating hairstyle, you promptly got injured! Oh cruel Fate! Oh miserable world! Without Leigh Bodden, what would the next 13 editions of "Born and Raised" be about? Absolutely nothing! Let's all hope and pray that Leigh does not miss much time. And let us hope and pray that he sees the error of his ways and goes back to the calculated coldness of his cold, calculating dreadlocks.

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: I love Charlie Frye, but I'm calling him Idiot of the Week simply for his bone-headed interception in the endzone in the fourth quarter. For LeBron's sake, Charlie, throw it away! THROW IT AWAY!

Corey says: My Idiots of the Week are all those people who spent yesterday's game tarnishing the proud legacy of Oakland Raiders legend Jim Otto and his illustrious jersey number, #00. For example, the guy managing the game clock. I mean, no fewer than four times during yesterday's game did the clock read :00. What is that about? All it would take would be one ounce of cocaine up that game clock manager's nose and poof--the number #00 and all those associated with it, especially Jim Otto, would be shamed for eternity! (P.S. My Idiot of the Week is actually Jim Otto.)

Number of the Week

Alex says: 1.92, or the Raiders' yards per pass attempt for the game. For reference, the worst starting quarterback in the NFL last season by YPA was Kyle Orton. He averaged 5.08 yards per pass attempt. The Browns certainly had trouble containing Lamont Jordan and Justin Fargas, as I touched on the ratio of rushing yards earlier. But the defense really had their way with Andrew Walter--getting a lot of pressure and forcing bad throws. Walter didn't help matters much by sucking, but these things reflect well on the Browns, and I'm contractually obligated to mention them.

Corey says: 39, or the total yards gained by Raiders wide receivers in yesterday's game. I'm kind of beating a dead horse here, as Alex has just pointed out that the Raiders passing attack sucked across the board, but this number in particular jumps out at me. Once again, we're seeing examples of why the key to defense is stopping the pass, not stopping the run. The Browns did not stop the run this week. Furthermore, their cornerbacks after Leigh Bodden's injury were Daven Holly, Ralph Browns, and Anotnio Perkins! Andrew Walter may not be much of a quarterback, but still, I have to give tons of credit to the aforementioned gentlemen for shutting down their assigned targets, and holding the Oakland offense to 14 total points (remember that the other 7 were scored on a defensive touchdown).

Moral Standings

The Browns, of course, earned another moral victory thanks to their actual victory--a very big component of the moral victory equation. The Bengals got their orange and black heinies handed to them by the New England Patriots, bringing them down to .500 on the season. The Steelers almost earned a loss in their bye week, but their saving grace came when I met a kid from Pittsburgh who told me about the weird way people talk there. For example, it is perfectly acceptable to say "The car needs washed" or "I always watch TV anymore". The Ravens suffered another humiliating moral defeat since Jamal Lewis was only able to sell two kilos of cocaine this week, instead of his target of three.

            MW  ML    pct
Cleveland    4   0  1.000
Cincinnati   2   2   .500
Pittsburgh   1   2   .333
Baltimore    0   4   .000

Next week: With the Panthers threatening to tie the game late in the fourth quarter, Kellen Winslow Jr. flies into a rage and vaporizes half the state of North Carolina, including the entire roster of the Panthers and all of South Carolina, with his heat vision--sealing a victory for the Browns! We'll be here to hand out gameballs and to survey the damage!