When you write your introduction last, and the article is very long, you can afford not to have an introduction at all. But first allow me to remind you that this is the second part in a multi-volume set of "Are They Improved?" articles. The first explored the starting lineup. Sometime soon I'll delve into that elusive thing we call "miscellaneous" with a look at off-the-court matters and whatever else strikes my fancy.

[This post will use a good deal of advanced basketball statistics. If you have questions about what they mean, check out this good introductory glossary.]

• Throughout the 2005 regular season and playoffs, it was apparent that Eric Snow is a serious liability on offense. So, in response, during the off-season, the Cavaliers front office signed a replacement... well, they signed a backup... they must have at least drafted a point guard, right? Well, technically yes. But no one thinks second-rounder Daniel Gibson will make much of an impact this season.
  
  With Gibson as a third-stringer, the bench options for point are Damon Jones and... Eddie Basden? Damon Jones certainly was bad last year, but he improved down the stretch and has his strengths: he's great at avoiding turnovers and can be very dangerous from behind the arc. In 2004, he was a very effective point guard for the Bucks, with a 42.1 Assist Rate and 9.1 Turnover Rate. Unfortunately though, Jones wasn't used much as a point guard last season and he's unlikely to have his role changed for this year.
  
  It seems that the Cavaliers will use some point guard-by-committee to spell "Lake Effect" Snow, which could be effective with good players. I'm not convinced, though, of the point guarding abilities of Jones, Shannon Brown, and Larry Hughes in particular. This is a very clear weakness for the team as it stands right now.
  
  
• When Larry Hughes gets injured, the Cavaliers will be well-prepared to replace him. Shannon Brown, by all reports, is very impressive and should produce immediately. The player I'm most anxious to see, however, is Damon Jones. Last season, Jones started ice cold and couldn't recover. Fortunately, last season is way out-of-line with the rest of his career. The popular refrain of "regression toward the mean" should hold true here. Jones's production should be somewhere between his disappointing 2006 and amazing 2005.
  
  Jones and Brown deserve the minutes, because Sasha Pavlovic straight-up sucks. Thank LeBron he's still young, because players with a career PER of 8.3 and Player Winning Percentage of .196 normally don't stick in the NBA, let alone crack a rotation. With no certified "super sub," the Cavaliers have a bit of strength in numbers: if Shannon Brown isn't ready for the NBA, then the team can use Damon Jones. If Jones sucks again, the team can turn to Luke Jackson--although I wouldn't bank on his health. If someone spills some FLAVA23 in the locker room, the Cavaliers can get Ira Newble to clean it up as their new guard-janitor.
  
  
• The Cavaliers could have Jeff Trepagnier and Sharon Reed as backup small forwards, and it wouldn't really matter. LeBron James will play at least 42 minutes every game and surely all of the important ones. If He were to get injured, any hopes the team had would immediately be dashed, regardless of the replacement. So, the ideal backup SF would someone who preferably knows how to zealously clap and cheer and will stay out of the way. Pavlovic fits the bill pretty well, although his enthusiasm on the bench could stand improvement.
  
  
• With Anderson Varejao and Donyell Marshall behind Drew Gooden, the Cavaliers have the best group of power forwards in the NBA. Much is made of Marshall's three-point shooting, but often overlooked is his impressive rebounding. Last year his Rebound Rate of 14.0 was good for 36th in the league--great for someone who supposedly camps behind the three-point line. Donyell's shooting accuracy dropped from a TS% of .591 in 2005 to .517 in 2006, and it's reasonable to expect him to recover some of that in 2007. Although Marshall will turn 33 next May and a serious drop in production due to age isn't out of the question in the near future.
  
  Anderson Varejao has been great for the Cavs, and I love him. But he has a serious problem. If Anderson Varejao had played enough minutes to qualify last season, he would've placed 13th in the NBA in personal fouls per minute. For every 40 minutes on the court, Anderson committed approximately 6.2 fouls. Basically Anderson couldn't even have stayed on the court for 40 minutes--he'd foul out. Personally, I can live with Varejao's hacking, as long as he's on the bench. But the hyperactive player Cleveland fans know and love couldn't cut it as a starter without cutting down on some of that hyperactivity. Mark this down as another reason not to trade Drew Gooden.
  
  
• Scot Pollard isn't truly the backup center. He'll share those duties with the aforementioned Marshall and Varejao--a rotation, if you will. But allow me to use this space to compliment the Cavaliers for signing Pollard. He is a supremely helpful player, in certain situations. A "platoon player" of sorts. Pollard is a great defender (99 career Defensive Rating, compared to a league average in that timespan of 104). He's also an excellent rebounder, with a career RbR of 15.5. Just don't pass him the ball on offense. Pollard's career offensive statistics are good, but have bottomed out in recent years. At the very least, Pollard is a huge upgrade over Alan Henderson.
  
  With Pollard in tow, Mike Brown has a (nice) problem to solve: how to dole out minutes to five qualified candidates (Pollard, Marshall, Varejao, Gooden, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas) for two positions? Irrespective of position, I would give Gooden 30 minutes per game, Ilgauskas 25, Marshall 18, Varejao 18, and Pollard 5. These are just rough figures, but seem pretty reasonable. Nevertheless, in 2006, once Anderson was healthy, the Cavaliers were stacked in the frontcourt and now, with Pollard, are ridiculously stacked.

I'm sorry this article is so long, I can't stop myself when talking about the Cavaliers. I'll keep this brief then: the frontcourt depth is a significant strength, but the lack of a good point guard hurts the team. But the point of this post is to determine whether the bench has improved from last season. Basically the only differences are the loss of Flip Murray and the addition of Shannon Brown, Daniel Gibson, and Scot Pollard. Murray was criminally overrated and Brown should easily replace him; I suspect Gibson won't do much this season; and Pollard is useful to have around. I'd say the bench is improved, but still needs improvement. The drop-off from the starting guards to the bench is steep.

"Our offense is going to be great this year," and "I think we're a playoff team."

Without going into details, I'll say I disagree, and move on.

When I heard the Browns traded for a guy named Lennie Friedman, I celebrated. A Jewish Brown? It's about damned time! We Jews have been happily living on Cleveland's East Side for, I don't know, a thousand years? Something like that. And never has the jewel of our city, the Browns, shown their respect by donating a roster spot to a token Jew. Or so I thought! According to some knowledgeable sources, former Obscure Brown and all-time great Butch Davis draft pick Antonio Garay is Jewish. Who knew?

Corey pointed out to me that according to Lennie's official team bio, he's a "National Football Hall of Fame inductee." Wow! I thought you had to retire for that. This guy is good.

Anyway, I welcome Mr. Friedman to Cleveland. And Lennie, if you're reading this, if you end up buying a house in Northeastern Ohio one day, don't follow your teammates to Westlake and Strongsville. I'd suggest the Heights, or at least Beachwood. But that's just me.

Last year I introduced something of an annual tradition, "Are They Improved?" Consider it an offseason review for the Cavaliers. The 2006 edition will come in three (3) installments: the starting lineup, the bench, and then whatever else is on my mind. In the end, the key question for each post is answering the titular question. Is the net change from the Cavaliers we saw in the 2006 Playoffs to the Cavaliers that will take the court this fall positive or negative? Let's get started.

[This post will use a good deal of advanced basketball statistics. If you have questions about what they mean, check out this good introductory glossary.]

• Without a doubt, the Cavaliers' biggest weakness is their lack of talent at point guard. Eric Snow remains a good defender, but his offense hasn't been within shouting distance of league average since he came to Cleveland. Last season, he managed an Offensive Rating of 98, compared to the league average of 106. Vitaly Potapenko has a higher career three-point shooting percentage (.167) than Eric Snow had in 2005-2006 (.100).
  
  I'm shocked the Cavaliers spent more time addressing their stacked front court than the black hole at the point. With each passing season, "Lake Effect" Snow loses another step, becoming more of a setback on offense. I have no insight on what will happen, but I can safely say Eric Snow should see his minutes drop significantly this season. The problem, though, is for whom?
  
  
• In eight seasons, Larry Hughes has played in approximately three quarters of his teams' regular season games. That averages out to nearly 61 games per year. The team can hardly count on a full season from Hughes, though last year's hand injury did seem like a fluke kind of thing. Speaking of flukes, Hughes's 2004-2005 season was one, but he's still a better than average shooting guard. Don't worry about Larry's poor statistics from last year (14.0 PER, among others), he was performing quite well right before his hand injury and returning late in the season below 100% only hurt the situation.
  
  No matter your opinion on Flip Murray, we can agree a healthy Hughes is better--he's like an actually good version of Flip. Both are combo guards who are active defenders and poor jump shooters, and can drive the lane very well. Barring another catastrophic injury, three quarters of a season with Hughes will be a definite upgrade over what the Cavaliers had last season, especially the team we remember from late in the year.
  
  
• This off-season, LeBron once again decided to postpone His eventual transformation into a pure-energy being. This is great news for Cavaliers fans. As hard as it is to believe, we can expect improvement from The Chosen One this coming season.
  
  
• Like it or not, Drew Gooden has been one of the best power forwards in the NBA for the past two seasons. He's an efficient scorer, with a career True Shooting Percentage of .552, and excellent rebounder, his Rebound Rate in 2005-2006 was 18.1. I realize many of Cavaliers fans aren't particularly fond of Mr. Gooden; allow me to address those of you. Perhaps Gooden does not maximize his ability, "keep his head in the game," or hustle enough, but Gooden had to do something to produce what he did. Maybe he could play significantly better, but frankly, Gooden in his current state is extremely valuable. Even if you find him frustrating to watch, Gooden produces more on the court than any other power forward on the Cavaliers' roster.
  
  With a greatly reduced role last season, statistically Gooden took a slight step back on defense (102 Defensive Rating to 104), stayed about the same on offense (112 Offensive Rating), and upped his already impressive rebounding (17.6 Rebound Rate to 18.1). Drew Gooden deservedly is the starter, but it's about time he got starter's minutes. If he does, expect a return to his 2004-2005 numbers at the very least--which are All-Star caliber numbers, by the way.
  
  
• Zydrunas Ilgauskas just had a career season, with career highs in Offensive Rating (114), PER (21.9), and True Shooting Percentage (.576), and he can thank LeBron James for it. Generally, the best time to trade an aging veteran is right after a career season, but I realize the Cavaliers probably won't get much in way of return for Zydrunas, besides salary cap relief. Which is lame. Plus, Z will remain productive for probably the next two seasons, at least. After that, the team is playing Russian roulette. Centers in their thirties have an annoying habit of having their production suddenly plummet, without warning. The only upshot is that with each passing year, Ilgauskas's responsibility on the team is reduced. He's becoming more of a role player--and he's very, very good at his role. Ilgauskas almost certainly will not be a better player in 2007 than he was in 2006, but his production can remain at high levels thanks to an increased concentration on offensive rebounding and drawing fouls. Personally, I expect Z to play poorer than he has in the past, but remain a valuable starter.

If you skipped all that boring analysis and went straight for the conclusion, here's how I see it shaking out: Eric Snow will get worse and should have his minutes cut by a lot; Larry Hughes won't play 82 games, but should be a meaningful improvement on the work of Damon Jones, Sasha Pavlovic, and Flip Murray; LeBron James is LeBron James; Drew Gooden ought to be as good as he was in 2004-2005, as long as he gets the minutes he unequivocally deserves; Zydrunas Ilgauskas will slow down in old age, but remain productive. Let's say the decline of Snow and Ilgauskas can be cancelled out by the improved play of Gooden and Hughes, leaving only the exploits of King James. On the whole, I see a net improvement from the starting lineup, if Mike Brown can dole out playing time properly.

Last night, Aaron Schatz, creator of Football Outsiders and lead author of Pro Football Prospectus visited Cleveland to sign copies of the newest edition of his book and talk football. A big thank you to everyone who showed up. I know more than a few people in attendance came at Corey's and my suggestion, which is pretty incredible. Without spoiling too much of the book (go buy it!), here are a taste of Aaron's views on the Browns and the AFC North in general:

• Browns - Romeo Crennel, Phil Savage, and the Browns front office get it, and the team is heading in the right direction. There is a lot of young talent on the offense, and Aaron had very good things to say about rookies Kamerion Wimbley, D'Qwell Jackson, and remarkably Babatunde Oshinowo. And, as always, there was liberal Leigh love. They are "a year away," although with a few breaks, the team could contend for a playoff spot this year. Don't count on it, though. The AFC North is a very tough division, and the Browns have an extremely tough schedule this year (5th hardest by DVOA). The most reasonable expectation for this team is around 6 wins.
• Steelers - Sadly, this team is "amazing." They have plenty of depth, and whatever they lost in Jerome Bettis, Antwaan Randle-El, Kimo von Oelhoffen, et al. is overstated. The Steelers are as good a choice as any to win the Super Bowl. When asked to say something bad about the Steelers, Aaron did note that "Joey Porter is an idiot."
• Bengals - The Bengals can compete with the Steelers, as long as they manage to stop doing drugs and getting arrested. No one can predict the effect the off-season turmoil will have on their performance (my bet is on "very little"). Thankfully, we didn't talk about Cincinnati for long, because who really cares about them?
• Ravens - Last, and definitely least, are the Ravens. Whatever the team gained in Steve McNair, they lost in the running game and on defense. Jamal Lewis is beyond done. Not only has Ray Lewis lost a step, but there isn't a lot of talent around him anymore. Baltimore is in the running for Most Overrated Team in the NFL. Plus they smell.

I've got my fingers crossed for an 8-8 season from the Browns, but mark my words: if the Browns win six games this year, no one should complain about the team underachieving. And this should be the season Ryan Pontbriand finally makes his first Pro Bowl. How much more perfect could he be, people?

First of all, let me take a quick opportunity to remind you about the Football Outsiders book signing that's taking place tomorrow (that's Thursday the 17th) at 7:00 PM at the Barnes and Noble on Chagrin Blvd. in Woodmere. It's going to be a blast, as Aaron Schatz, creator of Football Outsiders and lead author of Pro Football Prospectus, will be talkin' some Browns football, answering fantasy football questions, signing copies of his book, and talkin' more Browns football. Bring your friends!

Now... how ready am I for some football? About as ready as I've ever been. I'm even about to dedicate an entire post to the player ratings on the newly released Madden NFL '07.

Let it be understood that I do not, in any way, believe that the Madden franchise is a perfect judge of talent. I believe its player ratings to be quite flawed, in fact. I would much rather judge NFL players by, say, the results of Football Outsiders' fascinating and revolutionary game-charting project (which you can learn all about tomorrow night at the book signing!!!), or even, where applicable, statistics. That said, Madden is a cultural institution; its player ratings have wide-reaching effects on public opinion. Thus, I decided to peruse the player ratings for the 2006 Browns. Here, in bullet-point form, are a few interesting observations:

• Get ready to punch your monitor. The Browns' best player, according to Madden, is LeCharles Bentley. Bentley rates near the top of the league in nearly every blocking-related category. With an overall rating of 95, he is the third best center in the game.
• The worst Brown in the game, weirdly, is Josh "MTV" Cribbs, with a 59 overall rating. In fact, Madden has Cribbs as the third worst player in the entire league (among guys on actual team rosters).
• The game has no Jerome Harrison.
• Willie McGinest, at 93 overall, is the best LOLB in all of Madden, though there are 6 ROLB's who rate higher.
• Ted Washington has the highest "strength" rating in the game (99). Phil Dawson has the second lowest (15).
• For some reason, the game decided to make Lee Suggs the worst kicker in the NFL. Yes, you read that right. Every player, regardless of position, gets a "kick power" and a "kick accuracy" rating. Suggs' kicking power of 5 is tied for second-worst, while his kicking accuracy of 5 is tied for absolute worst. And it's not like he's tied with a large number of people. They really seem to have singled him out. Of course, I've been saying for years that Suggs couldn't kick. On draft day 2003, I wrote, "Sure, he's had success running the ball at Virginia Tech. But his kicking power and accuracy are cover-your-eyes bad. We're talking deplorable." No wonder the Jets wouldn't trade for him.
• The game also seems to have singled out Ken Dorsey in a number of categories. He's rated either worst or second worst in the NFL in "run block", "pass block", "tackle", "stiff arm", "impact blocking", "run block strength", "run block footwork", "pass block strength", and "pass block footwork". So much for converting him to tight end.
• Madden has the Browns loaded with kick returners despite the fact that Josh Cribbs' "kick return" rating is a paltry 78 (good for eighty-fourth best in the league). Dennis Northcutt (kick return rating of 96) is the third best returner in the game, while Antonio Perkins (90) ranks ninth and Travis Wilson (84) ranks fortieth.
• The most injury resistant Brown, according to Madden, is... wait for it... Braylon Edwards? His "injury" rating is 94.
• The most injury prone Brown is Ryan Tucker, who is also the most injury prone player in the entire game, by a huge margin. His "injury" rating of 25 is nowhere close to the 34 of the large group of guys who are tied for second worst.

I haven't yet decided if I will be purchasing a copy of Madden '07. For those of you who will be enjoying the game, however, I hope these tidbits prove helpful in some way.

Meanwhile... I'll see you all at the Football Outsiders book signing. (Right?)

According to Bill Livingston,

Gooden is the anti-Boozer.

As a player who can run the floor and finish inside, he knows life with LeBron James is a wish upon a star any player with sense would make. Boozer wanted to be Karl Malone. Gooden will be the fourth option (and fourth on pay scale) behind James, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Larry Hughes.

First of all, next season, LeBron will make around $5 million (his contract extension doesn't kick in until after next season), Zydrunas will make around $11 million, and Hughes will make around $12 million. Drew Gooden will make around $8 million, making him third "on pay scale." But that's nit-picking.

I would like to know, what makes Drew Gooden the "anti-Boozer?" Perhaps it's how they're so incredibly dissimilar. Here are the career "per 40 minutes" statistics for both Boozer and the anti-Boozer:

    Boozer  anti-Boozer
Pts  18.4      17.5
Reb  11.9      11.0
Ast   2.6       1.6
Stl   1.1       1.1
Blk   0.7       1.1
TO    2.4       2.4

So, Carlos Boozer has been good for approximately one extra point, rebound, and assist per game than his exact opposite. Boozer wanted to be Karl Malone, but Gooden wanted to be... Jeff Hornacek?

But perhaps Livingston is referring to off-the-court matters. Maybe the anti-Boozer wouldn't renege on a reputed verbal agreement to re-sign with the team for the mid-level veteran exception after being released from his rookie contract, if given the opportunity. It's really a shame the Cavaliers didn't try that one again with Gooden, just so we could see how he'd react. Personally, I wouldn't put a double-cross past Gooden, no matter how anti-Boozery he may be. He never hustles or "has his head in the game!"

Livingston hit the nail right on the head. I can't think of two more disparate people who are both bald-headed, goateed, right-handed, board-crashing, light-skinned African American NBA power forwards who declared for the draft after their junior season at a major Division I school than Drew Gooden and Carlos Boozer.

In all seriousness, though, Carlos Boozer is a human form of the Devil and Drew Gooden is just a goofy, fun guy. In this respect, the two players are vastly different. Calling someone the anti-Boozer is like calling him the anti-Satan. So if anyone is the anti-Boozer, it's LeBron. But that's a whole other debate. Reading Bill Livingston's article, it's clear that this is not what he was referring to.

In my last post I made passing mention of a Travis Hafner home run that landed somewhere in the vicinity of every Clevelander's favorite Canadian town: Port Burwell, Ontario. This got me to wondering just what feats of geography our man Travis is capable of achieving. Using Google Earth, I was able to determine, for example, that Port Burwell lies in Jacobs Field fair territory, a quick 91 miles past section 109. What other exotic locations lie fair? Toronto? Detroit? Wawa, Ontario? I decided to find out.

The first map shows Jacobs Field fair territory extended over downtown Cleveland. The pink and turquoise areas are fair (click to enlarge):



As it turns out, almost all of Greater Cleveland is foul ground. Travis could, however, hit homers to such popular destinations as Burke Lakefront Airport, Playhouse Square, Slyman's, and the Dawg Pound at Cleveland Browns Stadium (the fair/foul line almost perfectly bisects Browns Stadium).

Getting to the matter at hand, though, here's a map showing Jacobs Field fair territory (once again, in pink and turquoise) extended over the entire Great Lakes region (click to enlarge):



So Toronto is just fair; Detroit is just foul. I was shocked to learn that a sliver of Wisconsin actually lies in fair territory.

In fact, if you extend the fair/foul lines even further, you discover some very surprising facts. Due to the curvature of the Earth, we usually distort the shapes of the landmasses in the far northern regions in order to depict the world map on two-dimensional surfaces. Thus, simply extending the fair/foul lines as straight lines on a two-dimensional map would skew the situation quite a bit. Thanks to Google Earth, though, we are able to see the lines drawn correctly (click to enlarge):



Surprise! Most of Alaska is in fair territory. It doesn't appear to be so on a two-dimensional map because Alaska gets pushed to the left due to the extreme enlargement of that region. Nonetheless, Travis could indeed hit home runs to Prudhoe Bay, AK. By the same token, Iceland and even a sliver of Scotland are in fair territory! Komdu sæll, Travis!

Now, it occurs to me that prevailing global winds would exert a huge influence on any baseball traveling across the North American continent. Some quick research shows that, if anything, the wind would push batted balls to the east and possibly, eventually, even a little bit south. This would probably allow Travis to hook home runs around the right field foul pole and into--for example--Nova Scotia. It also makes it that much harder for Travis to hit a homer into Alaska, let alone his hometown of Jamestown, North Dakota (not that he isn't up to the task).

Of course, this entire discussion is pretty ridiculous, you have to admit. After all, any spot on Earth is technically in Jacobs Field fair territory. Take Buffalo, NY. On the Great Lakes regional map above, it appears to be in foul ground, just a little bit too far to the right. However, a Travis Hafner home run could land in Buffalo if it were hit down the left field line hard enough to travel about 24,500 miles, almost orbiting the Earth once.

Believe me, it could happen.

It's been over a month since I pointed out that Travis Hafner was the most valuable hitter in all of baseball. How is he progressing?

In terms of pure hitting, Travis is still tops in the AL, though Albert Pujols may have a case for tops in the majors, if only by a tiny margin. Here are the EqA leaders as of this morning:

                EqA
Albert Pujols  .345
Travis Hafner  .344
Manny Ramirez  .340
Jim Thome      .333
Lance Berkman  .330
Miguel Cabrera .329
Jason Giambi   .327
David Ortiz    .327
Jermaine Dye   .326
Joe Mauer      .325

And, for completeness' sake, the VORP leaders (position players only):

               VORP
Travis Hafner  65.9
Albert Pujols  64.7
Miguel Cabrera 56.8
Grady Sizemore 56.5
Manny Ramirez  56.2
Carlos Beltran 55.6
Derek Jeter    55.5
Lance Berkman  55.1
Joe Mauer      54.7
David Ortiz    53.7

Of course, if we try to factor in defensive contribution, Travis will move down the list a bit. The leaders in WARP1 (position players only) as of this morning are:

                 WARP1
Albert Pujols     8.3
Carlos Beltran    8.1
Miguel Cabrera    7.8
Lance Berkman     6.9
Grady Sizemore    6.8
Joe Mauer         6.8
Alfonso Soriano   6.8
Derek Jeter       6.5
Mike Young        6.5
Travis Hafner     6.4

Raise your hand if you thought Grady Sizemore was leading all AL position players in WARP! I hadn't quite thought about it until now, but Grady deserves some consideration for the MVP, too.

I'm not saying Grady or Travis is the MVP--only that they need to be considered. Let me shift the focus back to Hafner for a moment. It's hard to argue that he hasn't been--at the very least--the best hitter in the AL so far this season. The numbers above, in a nutshell, are the real reason Travis deserves to be considered for the American League MVP in 2006. If, by the word "value", as implied in the phrase "Most Valuable Player", we mean value on the field--that is, something that could conceivably be measured in runs, wins, whatever--then Hafner has to be on the short list.

I realize, however, that the people who vote on the MVP award--all of them, as far as I can tell--are not that interested in rational arguments. Certainly, they will barely even consider a player on a team with a record as bad as the Indians', and certainly, they will hold it against Travis that he is a designated hitter. Here, then, is my entreaty, on Travis' behalf, to the voters for the 2006 AL MVP award:

First off, let me just say that Travis Hafner is the clutchiest clutch that ever clutched. Case in point: on June 22, with his team trailing 6-0 in the ninth inning, having just received a phone call from a North Dakota psychopath who was holding the entire Hafner family hostage, and whose diabolical plans hinged on the outcome of Travis' at-bat, also having recently learned that the United States would be going to war with the combined forces of every nation on Earth if the Indians didn't win the game in the next five minutes, Travis roped a monster 7-run walk-off homer into right field that experts believe landed somewhere in the vicinity of Port Burwell, Ontario.

But Travis is about so much more than hitting. His glovework has consistently been rated best of any designated hitter in the game by top baseball analysts. 132 times this season, a Travis Hafner defensive gem has been recognized by the popular online feature "Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times Top Plays of the Week".

As if that weren't enough, Travis Hafner has the most heart, moxie and clubhouse presence (HMCP) in all of baseball. A recent study conducted at the University of Minnesota-Duluth showed that Hafner's HMCP of 71.21 is nearly twice that of the next-moxiest player, Derek Jeter, whose HMCP of 37.92 just edges NL leader David Eckstein (37.44). Another study, conducted at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, showed that Travis Hafner makes his teammates better by a league-leading factor of 340%. Aaron Boone, for example, would only be hitting .074 with 11 RBI if he didn't have Hafner on his team.

There you have it, MVP voters. How can you argue with that?

Bob Hallen's mysterious retirement leaves the Browns not only short on centers, but devoid of any Cleveland-native centers for this season. According to the NFL Players Association, there are 79 centers in the league. Counting every player in a training camp, that figure is certainly low, but let's stick with our more established varietal. Removing LeCharles Bentley, Alonzo Ephraim, and Hallen leaves the Browns 76 candidates. But who is from Northeast Ohio?

Andy McCollum of the Rams is from Akron, Scott Mruczkowski of the Chargers is from Garfield Heights, and Alex Stepanovich of the Cardinals is from Berea. Everyone in the NFL knows the Browns are desperate for centers, but they need to stop messing around with Hank Fraley or whoever. McCollum, Mruczkowski, and Stepanovich ought to be the only three players the Browns go after. It sounds silly, but the Browns sent the message this winter that they will only tolerate centers from Cleveland. I can appreciate that, but they made their bed and now they have to lie in it.

According to Pro Football Prospectus 2006, McCollum is on the decline and not very mobile anymore. Behind him are third-year player Larry Turner and undrafted rookie free agent Donovan Raiola. The Rams don't have depth, Turner has very little experience and Raiola may not stick with the team. McCollum has been with the team for a long time and is remembered for winning a Super Bowl in 1999. It would be almost impossible to pry McCollum away from the Rams.

Mruczkowski is the backup to Nick Hardwick, which is encouraging. Behind Scott is Nick Mihlhauser, an undrafted rookie free agent. Mruczkowski though, was a seventh-round pick himself last season. Neither player has much of a pedigree. I have no clue what the Chargers would want in return for Mruczkowski, but it's almost conceivable that the Browns could trade for him.

The Cardinals go four deep at center: Stepanovich, Nick Leckey, Shawn Lynch, Kyle Scmitt. Lackey is the "odd man out" on the line, so say the Football Outsiders. He could be a serviceable starter, at least temporarily. Lynch and Schmitt smell of career backup, which is fine, for a backup. Unfortunately, the Cardinals want to make a splash this season, especially on the ground with Edgerrin James. Wresting away a starting member of their offensive line would take an amazing offer.

Because the Browns are only looking for a temporary stopgap, Mruczkowski seems to be the ideal candidate. He is not a starter now, he's better than the Browns current options at center, he could easily slide back to being second string in 2007, and he's from Cleveland. And that name? Get outta here! Speculating on trades is not my strong suit, but how about Darnell Hackney and a conditional seventh-round pick in 2007? We could even throw in Jason Wright if you twist our arm.

Ronnie Duncan, public address announcer, is no more. Whatever Duncan lacked in talent, charm, and experience he certainly made up for in volume. As we did with the Browns most recent search for a head coach, let's take a look at potential replacements:

Jeff "Nasally Guy" Shreve

Pros:

• Experienced PA announcer
• Familiar with the facilities
• Free during basketball season

Cons:

• Not from Detroit

Moondog

Pros:

• Would be one fewer employee for Dan Gilbert to pay
• Is very quiet

Cons:

• Pray he doesn't use his drum
• Would further ingratiate Moondog into Cavaliers history

James Earl Jones

Pros:

• Dramatic and iconic voice
• Commands respect, i.e. too good to announce silly promotions

Cons:

• Probably not available

LeBron James

Pros:

• Accomplished voice actor

Cons:

• Kind of busy during the game
• Player-coach-PA announcer might be too much to ask

Marc Brown

Pros:

• Has become a Cleveland legend
• Owns a great voice
• Knows how to promote a product

Cons:

• Frequently would announce that his name is Marc.

This is pure speculation. Of course, the eventual winner of the job search may not be on this list, but I doubt it. I think both Shreve and Brown would make an excellent choice. If Dan Gilbert hires the current Pistons PA announcer (the one who yells "DE-TROIT BASKETBALL!"), so help me LeBron, I'll never support Gilbert for the rest of my days.

The Indians are underachievers. This spring, I expected a division title and a return to prominence. Indians fans are upset and I can't blame them. They need to express their outrage, and they often take it out on Jhonny Peralta.

Jhonny Peralta seems to be the perfect symbol of everything that's wrong with the Indians in 2006, because he's in the midst of a sophomore slump. He's not a flashy fielder like Omar Vizquel. He's prone to errors. He strikes out too much. And, most importantly, he's not hitting like he did in 2005. Let's address these complaints in reverse order.

"He's not hitting like he did in 2005."

Here are Jhonny's 2006 batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage splits, month-by-month:

April - .229/.281/.352
May - .270/.387/.390
June - .245/.304/.394
July - .297/.356/.462

A terrible April and Aaron Boone-esque June managed to sink Peralta's season. But his May was pretty good, and his July was nearing his 2005 levels. Bad months happen. Though, if Peralta can follow up July with a strong August and September, he'll have a good shot to meet his pre-season weighted mean PECOTA projection of .279/.355/.488, at least.

If that doesn't cheer you up, here's something else that might. As of August 3, the average MLB shortstop (Jhonny included) is hitting .279/.336/.413 while Jhonny is hitting .258/.331/.395. Yes, he's worse than average, but not by much. So, even in a down year, Jhonny is close to being an average shortstop with the bat. Being league average as a 24-year-old, despite a prolonged slump, is nothing to scoff at.

"He strikes out too much."

As Baseball Prospectus says, "an out is an out is an out." The long and the short of it is that while strikeouts look embarrassing to a hitter, they are no more detrimental to the offense than any other type of out. True, runners can't advance on a strikeout, but neither can you ground into a double play when the umpire calls "Strike three!" And, in the end, the lost value of not advancing runners and the gained value of avoiding double plays even out.

"He's prone to errors."

Peralta has 13 errors this season, tying him for eighth-most among qualified MLB shortstops. But since Jhonny is very durable and has played more innings (thus having more chances to commit errors) than many other shortstops, we should look at fielding percentage, rather than total errors. Among qualified players, Peralta is average. His .974 fielding percentage ranks him fifteenth out of the 28 players qualified.

Personally, I don't put much stock into error totals or fielding percentage. If Manny Ramirez smashes a groundball in the hole between third and short, according to the logic of fielding percentage, Jhonny would be better off standing still and allowing the hit rather than chasing the ball and knocking it down with his glove. Errors can be indicators of good range, in this regard, and often are. Peralta has made his share of flubs, but I don't think he gets a fair shake--his errors aren't always guaranteed outs, and an error by itself tells you next to nothing about the quality of the fielder who committed it.

"He's not a flashy fielder like Omar Vizquel."

First of all, every Indian fan can agree that it's unfair to compare other shortstops to Omar in fielding, he was just too good. So I'll use this space to debunk a few myths about Jhonny's lack of defensive prowess. But first, a disclaimer: WARNING! Traditional fielding statistics are all but meaningless. Sabermetric fielding statistics are in their infancy, and could stand some refinement. That being said, they're the best we got, so let's use them.

This season, in range factor (putouts and assists per inning), Jhonny ranks second in the majors among shortstops. In Zone Rating ("The percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive 'zone,' as measured by STATS, Inc."), he ranks twelfth among qualified shortstops. Using Baseball Prospectus's Rate ("A way to look at the fielder's rate of production, equal to 100 plus the number of runs above or below average this fielder is per 100 games"), Peralta saves the Indians approximately 15 runs every 100 games, or .15 runs per game. BP also calculates Runs Above Average, which is pretty self-explanatory. So far in 2006, Jhonny is 15 runs better the average fielding shortstop. This is Gold Glove territory.

Why would Baseball Prospectus's statistics paint Peralta to be a maestro with the mitt, while fans revile his fielding? And who's right? I think BP's statistics account for the less visible aspects of defense, namely, great positioning. For whatever reason, Jhonny is incredibly good at getting to a lot of batted balls. He's not fast, so I assume he has great anticipation. He routinely makes plays on grounders most other shortstops would not reach. This can also accounts for why fans resent him: by getting to so many grounders, Jhonny is bound to make more errors than your run-of-the-mill fielder. He has more chances to do so.

We remember Omar not only as consistent, but also as a prodigious source of highlights. Peralta keeps a low profile, and doesn't have a knack for the dramatic. He quietly does his job (very well, mind you) without fanfare. If he were to start making regular appearance on "Web Gems," I'm positive Peralta's defensive reputation would turn around in a heartbeat. I hope the Indians don't entertain the notion that Jhonny should be moved to another position this off-season. His fielding may not be as good as the statistics suggest, but it is certainly not as bad as the fans believe.

Jhonny Peralta has had a bad season at the plate. He's lost a lot of the power he showed last year. His fielding remains somewhere between average and stellar, Bud Shaw's opinions notwithstanding. If he finishes the 2006 season strong, I can only hope the fans get back behind him. It is really disheartening to see so many Indians fans giving him grief after every at-bat. As I said before, bad years happen, and I don't think it's right to blame it all on Jhonny himself. He's gotten better since April and, even in a sub-standard state, Peralta is a valuable player.

Jhonny is on pace to be 7.5 wins better than replacement level this season, by Baseball Prospectus's WARP3. In 1998, Omar Vizquel achieved a career high in WARP3 thanks to a stellar season on defense. He was worth 7.9 wins above replacement level.

This will be the first of several reminders I'll be giving about an upcoming Football Outsiders book signing here in Cleveland.

WHAT: Aaron Schatz, creator of Football Outsiders and lead author of the annual publication Pro Football Prospectus, will be talking plenty of Browns football, discussing fantasy football, talking some more Browns football, holding Q&A, and signing autographs.

WHEN: Thursday, August 17 at 7:00 PM.

WHERE: Barnes & Noble at Eton Collection on Chagrin Blvd. This is only about 1 minute from an I-271 exit, on the east side of town. Click here for a map.

If you're a veteran reader of this blog, you know that the Football Outsiders' innovative statistics are at the forefront of football research and analysis, and a huge part of the Browns coverage Alex and I put together. Over the last year we have pestered Aaron about including Cleveland on his 2006 book signing tour. His publisher felt that Cleveland was too small a market, but he's coming anyway, in large part because of our entreaties.

I promise you--even if you are not a fan of statistical analysis in football--that you will find what Aaron has to say interesting. This will also be a great chance for you to meet some fellow, like-minded Browns fans, including my brother and me. We hope to see you there!