The heat at Jacobs Field this afternoon was quite palpable, as evidenced by this photograph I took:



Unfortunately, the Indians were not on fire. They were decidedly off fire, as the White Sox won, 11-0. The success of the White Sox frustrates me to no end. Going into today's game, they were hitting, pitching, and fielding at the level of a .557 team, according to Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Standings. That means their 32-17 record (prior to today's blowout) was 4.7 games better than what they deserve. The Indians, by contrast, are about 3.9 games worse than they deserve to be, having performed at the level of a .569 team. Please note: the Indians have performed better than the White Sox in 2006. Sound familiar?

The Tigers are a slightly different story. Their 35-15 record is 4.9 games ahead of where they ought to be, but their third-order winning percentage of .602 is easily good enough for first place.

            3rd-Order W-L     Actual W-L
Tigers     30.1-19.9 (.602)  35-15 (.700)
Indians    27.9-21.1 (.569)  24-25 (.490)
White Sox  27.3-21.7 (.557)  32-17 (.653)

211 games' worth of watching the White Sox play over their heads has taken its toll on me; still, I am a realist, which is why I recognize that, from now until the end of the season, the Indians are a good bet to fare better than they have over the first two months, while the White Sox and Tigers are good bets to fare worse. Not that it will necessarily be enough for the Indians to overtake them in the standings: the Tribe's Playoff Odds are sitting at 18.0%, and that's before today's little embarassment.

In happier news, I tried one of these:



Now, I never got to try an Albert Belle Bar back in the day, so I can't make the obvious comparison--I can only review the Pronk Bar on its own merits. I found the packaging to be nice; even though they depict Travis wearing some type of generic, baseball-type uniform, the colors are attractive and the layout is good.

Inside, you find this:




This is clearly some product that Malley's already made, but started selling under a different name. It's essentially a Crunch bar, but divided into segments, each with the Malley's logo imprinted on them. I had sincerely hoped, by the way Travis spoke with such gusto about his new candy bar, that we would have ourselves something original, or even interesting, but no. At least LeBron had the opportunity to conduct extensive chemical tests in a laboratory in preparation for Flava23.

Don't get me wrong, though; it still tasted good. It is chocolate, after all.

Everyone always creates "Best Prospects" lists. But what about a "Worst Prospects" list? I'm looking for the players in the Indians organization who are 25 and under with the absolute worst chance of succeeding in the Major Leagues at any point between now and the end of the universe. Guys like Einar Diaz and Vic Darensbourg don't count. And I will favor players in the higher levels since they have a longer track record of failure.

• Ivan Ochoa, SS, 23 Ivan has struggled in AAA this year in limited playing time. Actually, Ivan has struggled everywhere during his career. He walks at a decent clip, but he strikes out too much and his career isolated-slugging of .060 counteracts any boost in OBP. Ochoa just slips onto this list even though he's still young for his level because for all the talk of hitters "growing into their power," you have to at least start with some power.
• Dan Denham, P, 23 You might be surprised by this pick, because fans will recognize Denham's name, being a first round pick in 2001. Despite two seasons (and counting) in Akron, Denham hasn't been able to make it in Buffalo. He got a brief shot both last season and in 2006--but wasn't able to capitalize. Thanks to getting a head start on his professional career (who needs college?), Denham might one day be a mop-up reliever. Denham will get a shot eventually, simply because he's a first rounder.
• Nathan Panther, OF, 25 Cool name or not, Panther has really labored in AA this season after performing passably in a short stint in 2005. He has two big problems: he can't hit and he has no patience, at least not this year. In 83 plate appearances, he has two walks and three extra base hits.
• Matt Davis, P, 24 Davis is doing pretty well for himself this season with a 2.11 ERA alongside 31 strikeouts and 9 walks in 21.1 innings. However, this is coming in Lake County and Davis is way too old for Low A ball. The previous two seasons, he toiled in Kinston--getting worse with age. If Davis keeps up his success, he probably will be promoted to Kinston this year. At this rate, he'll make the majors sometime around 2011.
• Mike Conroy, OF, 23 2006 will be Mike's sixth year in the Indians organization and he's still stuck in Lake County. He spent almost the entirety of last season in Kinston, but didn't impress. So I guess it's back to Lake County for more seasonin'. Conroy, unfortunately, doesn't seem to be taking the demotion in stride: he's struck out in more than a quarter of his at-bats. And with his current slugging percentage of .349, it's not like he smacks the ball when he does make contact either.
• P.J. Hiser, 1B, 24 It's anyone's guess, but the safe money is that Hiser is recuperating from a serious injury, since he missed the entire 2005 season. The calendar now reads 2006, and you better believe Hiser is back, baby. Back to the tune of .171/.231/.300 for Lake County. Short of some sort of miracle healing, I'm pretty sure Hiser won't catch a whiff of The Show for anytime soon.
• Dan Eisentrager, P, 25 Another Kinston veteran, Eisentrager ("Iron wearer" in German) is back for his third tour of duty in North Carolina. He hasn't been a particularly good pitcher since 2003 in the Sally League. I can't find any news items about Dan, but for some reason, he has yet to pitch this season.
• Javier Hererra, C, 25 Hererra has slowly clawed his way up the baseball food chain since the 2003 draft, but it looks like Akron is as far he will get. Unless Hererra owns one of the best arms in the minor leagues, Javier won't be promoted anytime soon with a professional career line of .200/.238/.340. What a great 2nd round pick!
• Josh Kite, P, 24 When the Burlington Indians begin their 2006 campaign on June 21, Kite will be there to show the youngsters the ropes. This will be Josh's third straight go-around for the team. Kite performed terribly in that all-important cup of coffee in Low A ball last (17 RA in 10.2 IP) after impressing in Burlington.
• Rodney Choy Foo, SS, 24 As I noted in my rundown of the best names in the Indians organization, Rodney sucks. Like really sucks. So far, in his fourth season as a Kinston Indian, Rodney can't even crack the starting lineup. If Choy Foo can't earn a call-up to AA this season, his professional career seems as good as over.

Fortunately for Indians fans, I found this exercise a lot harder than expected. Every team has it's share of organizational soldiers, but the Indians don't have many real schlubs. This franchise-wide depth is clearly demonstrated in the Indians success at nearly every level. Oh, and if any of these players ever make the Major Leagues, I'll be mildly surprised. But I definitely won't eat my hat. Because that's just disgusting.

Well, the season is over for LeBron and friends. The Cavaliers accomplished far more in their series with Detroit than we could have expected or predicted, but it still wasn't quite enough. Before we start thinking about offseason issues or turning our attention back to the Indians, I'd like to take a statistical look at the last seven games.

For the second straight series, the Cavs eked by with more wins than they should have gotten based on their performance. They were badly outscored by Detroit over the course of the series, 606 to 566, which, over a seven-game stretch, would normally be good for a record of about 1.9 wins, 5.1 losses.

The offense scored 100.1 points per 100 possessions, which is a far cry from the 109.9 they averaged in Round 1, but worlds better than the 92.0 they averaged in their four regular season matchups with Detroit. The defense, on the other hand, allowed 105.5 points per 100 possessions, which is significantly better than the 110.4 they allowed in Round 1, though, quite surprisingly, not as good as the 101.5 they allowed in the four regular season Pistons games.

                  Cavs O-Eff  Cavs D-Eff
Regular Season      108.4       105.6
Playoffs Round 1    109.9       110.4
Playoffs Round 2    100.1       105.5

That the Cavs defense was better over a seven-game series with the ultra-efficient Detroit Pistons than it was over the entire regular season is surely something to be proud of. Of course, within the Detroit series itself, the Cavs' performance fluctuated wildly:

        O-Eff  D-Eff
Game 1  106.8  136.1
Game 2  105.2  110.4
Game 3  111.0   97.7
Game 4   88.4   86.2
Game 5  103.5   98.5
Game 6  107.3  106.9
Game 7   78.3  103.6

In Game 1, the Cavs put up the worst Defensive Efficiency of any single game this season. In Game 4, they put up the fourth-best. In Game 7, they put up the second-worst Offensive Efficiency of any single game this season. Clearly it was a series of highs and lows.

The great tragedy of the series--and please skip ahead if you don't want to have your heart broken--is that in Game 6, the Cavs were the more efficient team (at least according to the formula for estimating possessions that I used, which is the one used by Basketball-Reference.com). The team with the higher Offensive Efficiency is almost always the team that wins--after all, the number of possessions for each team can only differ by one. If only, for that one night, the more efficient team had truly prevailed, the Cavs would have won the series, 4-2. When they couldn't get that last rebound to tip in on Friday night, I think we all knew the Cavs had lost their golden opportunity. We knew it would be a thousand times harder to win in Detroit in Game 7 than it would have been at home in Game 6.

Interestingly, the series was played with a ridiculously slow pace factor--even for the Pistons. With an average of 81.4 possessions per game, you could say that the slow pace favored the Pistons, whose regular season pace factor of 86.8 was the second-slowest in the NBA. The problem with that assessment is that, even in the games the Cavs won--heck, even in the one they dominated--the pace was slow as molasses. In three of the contests--Game 3 (78.1), Game 6 (77.5) and Game 7 (77.1)--the pace factor was slower than it had been in any previous Cavaliers game all season. This is mostly just trivia, of course; it doesn't go very far toward explaining why the Cavs lost.

How, then, did the individual Cavaliers perform in Round 2, on offense, at least? LeBron James was His usual excellent self--for the most part. He put up a True Shooting Percentage of .516--not as good as His regular season mark of .568 but impressive considering the lack of offense in the series. His Assist Ratio of 16.6 was right in step with His regular season mark of 17.6, while His Rebound Rate of 11.1 was well ahead of His regular season mark of 9.8. The one thing the Pistons did well in dealing with LeBron was forcing Him to take bad shots, which we can see in his Effective FG% (eFG%) of .468, well below His regular season mark of .515.

Among the positive performers for the Cavs was Anderson Varejão (for the second straight series), whose True Shooting Percentage of .657 led the team. The most impressive thing he did was shoot 21 of 26 (.808) from the free throw line--amazing when you consider he was among the five or six worst free throw shooters in the NBA during the regular season. Even when we take out the free throws, though, Anderson's shooting was stellar: his eFG% of .579 also led the team.

Drew Gooden not only had the next-best TS% (.551) and eFG% (.511) on the team, he led the team in Rebound Rate, hauling in 17.5% of the boards available to him. One thing that was maddening about the series with Detroit--which was frankly maddening all season long--was the small portion of minutes Drew got. His 143 minutes played were equal to Anderson's 143 and less than Donyell's 184. In fact, they were the fewest of anyone in the regular rotation, save for Larry Hughes, who missed four of the games. I recognize that Varejão and Marshall have been playing well, that they are great backups, and that the Cavs have excellent frontcourt depth, but Gooden is still the best player of the three, no matter how you slice it. (As you might guess, the question of whether Drew will be brought back in the offseason weighs heavily on my mind.)

The other positive performers were Marshall, whose shooting (.546 TS%) in particular was good, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who recovered form a dismal Round 1 to at least have an impact of some kind (.505 TS%, 14.4 RbR, .833 from the line). In other words, the tall guys played well.

The guards, not so much. Flip Murray, especially, was brutal. He received the second-most minutes of anyone and attempted the third-most field goals, but posted the worst True Shooting Percentage on the team (.310), the second-worst Rebound Rate (5.7), and only the fifth-best Assist Ratio (14.6), worst by far among the guards. Snow, Hughes, and Jones each passed the ball quite well, with Assist Ratios of 28.4, 25.2, and 23.0, respectively, but their shooting hurt the team considerably (True Shooting Percentages of .427 for Snow, .398 for Hughes and .384 for Jones).

That's all the analysis I have for now. Sometime before the draft, we'll discuss the Cavs' offseason priorities (ie: what to do about LeBron, Gooden, and Murray, etc.), and I imagine that come Fall, Alex will want to start a new series of "Are They Improved?" articles. Until then, get some rest, basketball fans. It was a hell of a year.

Last night, Alex and I attended a Baseball Prospectus-sponsored event at Jacobs Field. We got to have a Q&A session before the game with several key members of the Indians' front office, then enjoy C.C. Sabathia's dominating performance from the stands alongside BP authors Will Carroll, Joe Sheehan, and John Erhardt.

A few hours before game time, we were intorduced to Assistant GM Chris Antonetti, Special Assistant to the GM Neal Huntington, Assistant Director of Baseball Operations Mike Chernoff, and Coordinator of Baseball Operations Kyle Stark. (To quote Will Carroll, could the job titles be any vaguer?) Among the things they spoke about were:

• How the team prepares for the draft, namely a gigantic 3,000-hour meeting in which every scout reports on every prospect known to man. The front office then ranks every player.
• That Andy Marte has been pressing at AAA. As Huntington said, he's "grinding the bat into sawdust." Therefore, don't look for Marte to be an early call-up. But do look for Jeremy Sowers, Andrew Brown, Franklin Gutierrez, Jaosn Dubois, and Ryan Garko to get the nod should the Indians need some depth.
• Why C.C. Sabathia's mechanics, though they may put him at risk for injury, are the precise reason for his success. Antonetti explained that Sabathia is "hyper-flexible," which I had never known before. Will Carroll also went to great lengths to praise the team for taking every precaution possible to protect C.C. We were assured that the Indians played no role whatsoever in holding C.C. out of the World Baseball Classic.
• They admitted that the Robbie Alomar trade was a mistake, in that they tried to contend and rebuild at the same time. However, the front office learned from its mistakes, and might not have pulled off the Bartolo Colon deal without first failing.
• The importance of "make-up," which is high. Although make-up is a criminally vague term, it actually emcompasses about 14 different measures of personality.

Antonetti, Huntington, Chernoff, and Stark were certainly fascinating to listen to, but perhaps even more fascinating was listening to Manager of Application Development (ie: software designer) Matt Tagliaferri, who took over when the rest of the guys had to get back to work. Tagliaferri is the man responsible for DiamondView, the Indians' private software program that in effect represents most of their competitive advantage.

I knew of DiamondView before last night, of course, but having heard it described to me, I failed to understand why it was so great. Hearing Tagliaferri (and Carroll) talk about it made me realize what all the fuss was about. What the Indians can do in seconds using DiamondView, every other team in baseball still takes days to do using old-fashioned methods. The Indians are so far ahead of the curve in terms of using software to track data, in fact, that they emply the same number of people in the Information Services department, nine, as the Chicago Cubs do in their entire front office!

When a player from another organization, for example, comes up in trade talks or whatever, a member of the Indians front office can use DiamondView not only to see that player's stats and biographical data, but to see a log of every time he has been mentioned in a phone conversation with another GM, every time he has been mentioned by an Indians scout, every time he has been mentioned on a certain website, where the Indians rank him in terms of trade preference within his own organization, and so on.

When another GM calls the Indians, meanwhile, they can use DiamondView to know instantly which of that GM's players they would be willing to receive in which trades. Other teams take days to have their interns research things like that each time a phone call is made. As Carroll said, "When other teams begin talks with the Indians, they know they're already at a major disadvantage."

I would have thought that systems like DiamondView had been developed by every team in pro sports by now, but apparently that is not the case. Just so you know, I believe Joe Sheehan will be publishing a column about DiamondView sometime this week on Baseball Prospectus.

As for the game itself, we got to mingle with Carroll, Sheehan, Erhardt and Tagliaferri out in the left field bleachers. Too bad for us that the game only lasted 2 hours... though it did allow us to catch the end of the Cavs game. All in all, we had a blast.

I'm not a real estate developer, but I play one on TV. For some bizarre reason, the movement to retrofit a retractable roof onto Cleveland Browns Stadium is getting plenty of local exposure these days. Last morning, I listened to an interview with architect Robert Corna on the radio.

While Corna's design isn't as ugly and obtrusive as I imagined, retractable roofs and such are ugly by definition. And that's basically the only compliment I can pay this misguided and distressing effort. First of all, retractable roofs are for wimps. Second of all, Cleveland's nasty winter weather gives the Browns a considerable home field advantage, which would be helpful if the Browns are ever to have a home playoff game again.

The most ridiculous moment of the interview occurred when Corna describes walking around Browns Stadium on a non-gameday. Of course, the area was deserted. But somehow, with a retractable roof, people would be hanging out around the stadium around-the-clock. The stadium can never be a place to hang out or be vibrant, or anything like that. True, with a roof, it could host more events. But Cleveland isn't starving for venues to hold events (Quicken Loans Arena, Wolstein Center, Convention Center, I-X Center).

On the news of Corna's proposal to City Council, Neil deMause, the stadium expert behind Field of Schemes, cracked that Cleveland "could be the next Detroit." Ironically, Corna proudly mirrors this view, dimly unaware that copying Detroit is never the answer. Unless, of course, city leaders are looking for a way to improve our badly slumping carjacking figures. Not to mention that Detroit has more than double the number of hotel rooms available than Cleveland, thanks to Windsor, Ontario. I don't think Cleveland could accommodate the influx of tourists visiting the city if it were to host a Super Bowl.

deMause referred me to the work of economist Phil Porter. Porter has studied the Super Bowl and its economic impact on the host city. Unsurprisingly, he found that Super Bowls have much smaller impact effect than widely believed. A large part of this is due to the NFL and stadium builders simply counting up all economic activity somehow touched by the game. However, they fail to mention that some of the hotel rooms would still be occupied even without the Super Bowl. Also, as deMause points out, "When 100,000 football fans drop by for a visit, somebody has to cart them around, clean up after them, and throw them in the clink for public drunkenness and ticket-scalping. During a Super Bowl, the average city can expect to spend big on police overtime, additional public transit services, and sanitation."

By the way, Corna estimates the cost of the roof to be $90,000,000. But when was the last time any stadium construction finished on budget?

Frankly, I don't understand the big hub-bub about getting a Super Bowl. Surely it'll boost business and tourism in Cleveland, for one week. Super Bowl XXXIX was in Jacksonville, and I'm doubtful anyone is yearning to take the family down to Jacksonville because hey, they had a Super Bowl two years ago! Hosting the big game won't do much for Cleveland the millisecond the big game is over. You know what would be better than hosting the Super Bowl? Winning a Super Bowl. Let's try that first.

Altogether, the dubious positive influx from hosting a Super Bowl, the city having to foot a large bill to accommodate and clean up after all the visitors, a pricetag all-but-guaranteed to be higher than the projected $90M, and an unsightly addition to Cleveland Browns Stadium add up to a terrible investment. I doubt that the city could recoup the cost of building a retractable roof. Instead, I propose Cleveland builds a gigantic multi-use lakefront stadium that could seat 100,000. Maybe we'll get the Olympics!!!

If you've watched any playoff basketball this year, you've undoubtedly seen the new Nike commercials, in which clips of LeBron being awesome are interspersed with scenes of Cleveland, Clevelanders worshipping LeBron, and Clevelanders proclaiming and/or demonstrating that we are all, indeed, witnesses. There have been two of these spots so far--one for each round of the playoffs.

Since the clips go by so fast, I decided to capture a few screenshots and try to pinpoint each of the filming locations that Nike used. Some of the locations are harder to identify than others, though, so I'm counting on you readers to figure out the ones that I couldn't. The reader who correctly identifies the most unknown locations will be named Grand High Exalted Witness.

First, commercial #1, which ran during Round 1 of the playoffs. I've left out the shots of game footage, as well as any shots that weren't location-specific, such as extreme close-ups of individual people.

In screenshot #1, we are traveling down a Cleveland street:



I have no idea where this is, though if I had to guess, I'd say it was on the east side, near downtown. Anyone recognize the buildings?

In screenshot #2, we see a factory:



Unfortunately, I'm not really up on my Cleveland factories, so I'm going to need some help with this one too. Judging by the movement of the camera in this shot, the factory is being viewed from the freeway.

Update: I actually spotted this factory this afternoon on my way back from lunch. And loyal reader Alex (different Alex) recognized it, too. It's the former LTV Steel factory, just west of I-77 and south of I-490, located here. In the commercial it is being viewed from I-77 southbound. I think this dispels the possibility (suggested by at least one loyal reader) that the first two shots of the commerical are of Akron. I'm fairly certain the entire thing takes place in Cleveland.

Screenshot #3 is fairly self-explanatory:



In this shot we are on I-77 northbound, just before the interchange with I-490. More precisely, we are here.

In screenshot #4, we pass some storefronts:



Specifically, a church and a convenience store of some kind. Once again, I don't recognize these buildings and it's hard to make out the name on the sign. It clearly ends with the word "Foods".

In screenshot #5, we see the underside of a bridge:



I'm pretty sure this is the Detroit-Superior bridge, and that the red beams in the foreground are part of the Center Street Swing Bridge. I believe we are looking east. The exact location would be here.

Screenshot #6 shows some dudes playing basketball in a park:



This park will reappear in several more shots, as you will see, but I still can't figure out where it might be. At first I thought the lack of objects on the horizon meant it was a lakefront park, but now I'm not so sure.

Update: I have determined what park this is. See below.

In screenshot #7, we see a restaurant:



This is Sportsman's Restaurant on St. Clair, right near Public Square. The exact location is here.

Screenshot #8 takes us inside the restaurant:



You can tell it's the same restaurant by the neon sign in the window, the menu board that can vaguely be seen in screenshot #7, and the awning that can vaguely be seen in screenshot #8. Incidentally, this restaurant is near where Alex is working this summer. Perhaps he would be kind enough to go there for lunch tomorrow, and report on whether the "Quadruple Double" is indeed for sale right now, and if so, how it tastes. It looks delicious.

Update: I met Alex for lunch this afternoon at Sportsman's. The signboard no longer advertizes the Quadruple Double (nor does it say "Go Cavs") but when we asked the waitress about it we were assured that the Quadruple Double was available. It's essentially a double-decker sandwich with pastrami, corned beef, swiss cheese and cole slaw. We each had one. It was delicious indeed.

Screenshot #9 shows us a young witness being indoctrinated into the Church of LeBron:



This (along with another screenshot you will see below) is clearly inside a mall. It looks like Tower City to me--they are sitting on the ledge that encircles the coin fountain. Tower City, as if you didn't know, is located here.

In screenshot #10, a man on a motorcycle leaves an auto repair shop:



The shop, according to my painstaking research and analysis, is ProStyle Automotive, located on Carnegie, here.

In screenshot #11, we see an apartment building where, conveniently for the Nike Corporation, someone has decided to proclaim his witnessness:



I have no clue on this one. There is a word carved near the top of the building, but damned if I can read it. Anyone recognize this place? I can't imagine it's too far from downtown.

Update: Thanks to loyal reader Jon, a former resident of this building, we now know it to be the Merrell Building, located here on W. 25th in Ohio City. The building's website is all the confirmation we need.

In screenshot #12, we see a display with a familiar message:



At first I thought this was at the airport or something, until another shot of this same locale appeared in commercial #2. Read on; we'll come back to it.

Screenshot #13 takes us back to the unidentified park:



It still looks like it could be near the lakefront, though a brief look at some hi-res satellite imagery of the area yielded no possible candidates.

Update: I have determined what park this is. See below.

Screenshot #14, which ends commercial #1, shows us a banner we know all too well:



In case you're not from around here, this building is located on Ontario Street, across from Quicken Loans Arena, here.

Next we have commercial #2, which is airing during the second round of the playoffs (ie: currently). It features clips of LeBron being awesome during the series against the Wizards as well as additional footage of locations from commercial #1. It also focuses much more heavily on game footage and shots of individual people in unspecific locations, so I captured fewer screenshots.

In screenshot #1, we see another young witness who has been decorated in the native style:



This is the exact same location from screenshot #9, above. In fact, the little girl from that shot can be seen here, sitting on the right.

Screenshot #2 shows two guys channeling LeBron in some kind of warehouse:



Now, if you can name the warehouse from this evidence alone, I'll give you 100 points. I almost didn't even include this shot, but hey, you never know. Maybe this is the loading dock where you work.

Update: Loyal reader Roger has astutely pointed out that one of the guys in this shot is the guy on the motorcycle from screenshot #10, above. Thus, the warehouse is probably also ProStyle Automotive.

In screenshot #3, we see the giant LeBron banner once more:



In screenshot #4, we get another look at the display from screenshot #12, above:



Careful study reveals that it is indeed the same display. This time we are given the name of the establishment, modä. It's a nightclub on W. 25th in Ohio City, located here.

Commercial #2 ends with another shot of the gentleman from screenshot #12, above:



This time, we see the park from a different angle, though no clues jump out at me. I don't really know where there are outdoor basketball courts in the downtown area.

Update: Thanks to loyal reader Roger and a tip from another blog where some similar analysis was attempted, I've discovered that this park is the Michael Zone Recreation Center at the corner of W. 65th and Lorain, located here. Comparing the screenshots to hi-res satellite imagery confirms this to me in a few different ways. One, the colors of the pavement match. Two the placements and sizes of the trees match. Three, the patch of dead grass in the last screenshot is visible in Google's satellite image (at the northwest corner of the basketabll courts). The reason there is nothing on the horizon in two of the screenshots (which is why I thought it was near the lake) is because I-90 is there and there is a large berm that obscures the view to the south.

Well, there you have it. If, by some miracle of LeBron, the Cavs make it to the next round of the playoffs (or possibly even if they don't), I imagine there will be a third version of this ad, in which case I'll see what I can do. Until then, go Cavs.

I realize we have been neglecting the Indians of late, and we're sorry for that (baseball coverage this weekend, I promise), but in the name of all that is LeBron, can you blame us?

In Game 1 of the Pistons series, the Cavs defense allowed an alarming 1.361 points per possession--most of any single game of '05-'06. In Game 2, that number came down to 1.104--precisely what the Cavs defense allowed in the Wizards series. In Game 3, it was an impressive 0.977--unusually low for the Cavaliers. Tonight, the Cavs defense allowed an unthinkable 0.862 points per possession, continuing a very, very positive trend.

Never mind that the offense only scored 0.884 points per possession; the defensive performance in Game 4--against an offense that averaged 1.109 points per possession in the regular season--was arguably the best we have seen in the Mike Brown era. (By the numbers, the Defensive Efficiency this evening was the fourth-best in a single game in '05-'06, though the other three games were against weaker offenses. Only once this season did a Cavs opponent have a worse True Shooting Percentage.) You could make a compelling case that, even free of context, this was the greatest defensive performance we have seen in the LeBron era.

I won't even mind it too much if the Cavs happen to lose the next 2 and are eliminated; I thought that if they won even one game in the series, it would be a victory.

On a related note, I'm sure you've seen these promos on TNT:

Guy #1: Who would make a better paramedic, Shaq or LeBron?
Guy #2: LeBron. He'd get there quicker.
Guy #1: Yeah, but Shaq could lift the stretcher with one hand.
Corey Rubin: WELL, SO COULD LEBRON.

Okay, maybe you didn't see or hear that last part, per se, but please. It's insulting to argue that anyone on Earth would be a better anything than LeBron.

Amen.

[The following is a piece I wrote for NYU's comedy magazine The Plague this semester. It's a little different than what we usually do at the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times, but I hope you enjoy. -Alex]

Saint LeBron (born LeBron James) is an NBA basketball player for the Cleveland Cavaliers. Due to his extraordinary skill and physical gifts, he is often compared to basketball legends such as Michael Jordan, Earvin "Magic" Johnson, and Oscar Robertson. However, given LeBron’s divine powers and family history, a more accurate comparison would be to Hercules.

On December 30, 1984, a young, virginal iron-smelter in Akron, Ohio, Gloria James, felt a terrible pressure within her head. Gloria fell to her knees, but the pain only grew stronger. On the verge of losing consciousness, she wished herself dead. At that moment, LeBron James sprung forth from her forehead fully formed. He introduced himself, as a gentleman would, and began to acclimate himself to this new world.

While showing her son around the neighborhood the next day, young LeBron laid his eyes upon a basketball for the first time. He immediately grasped his purpose. LeBron picked up the ball and slam dunked so violently that he caused the volcano eruption in 1997's Dante's Peak. All three celebrity judges awarded him a "10". In fact, R&B superstar Whitney Houston defiantly rose from her grave in Fort Wayne, Indiana to give LeBron a thumbs up.

LeBron was offered admission to the world-renowned Oxford University in Ireland at age three. He turned down the opportunity, opting to remain in Ohio and rehabilitate his Heimat. He attended the prestigious Saint Vincent-Saint Mary High School in Akron and graduated only six weeks after enrolling. LeBron's years at SVSM remain among his most productive; his pioneering research there laid the foundation for modern economic theory and Crest® Whitestrips®.

After leading the St. Vincent-St. Mary Irish to state championships in men's basketball, football, hockey, chess, field hockey, and Jai-Alai, James realized he had done all he could for Akron and unsuccessfully ran for Comptroller of Summit County. LeBron was busy fighting a five-alarm fire on Election Day and could not vote. Ironically, LeBron would have won if only he had cast his ballot, since he legally counts as twenty men.

The Cleveland Cavaliers, winless in their previous 38 seasons, selected LeBron James with the 1st overall pick in the 1989 NBA Draft on June 26, 2003. In an astonishing reversal of fortune, the team has since yet to lose a contest. Now working on their third consecutive NBA Championship, sports writers wonder whether the Cavaliers are losing focus. Some would even say they have "nothing left to play for" any longer. LeBron though has vowed to keep his teammates prepared for every oncoming challenge, no matter how pointless it is in the face of Cleveland's sheer dominance.

On July 1, 2086, LeBron James completed his transformation into pure energy and ascended to heaven. His legacy on Earth remains his world record of 68 consecutive NBA MVP trophies and eating 38,155 hot dogs in twelve minutes in the 2013 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest at Coney Island. To this day, thousands make a pilgrimage to Akron each December 30 to celebrate the holiest of holidays, LeBron Day.

I may be a day late, but you know what they say, "blame Corey." Once again, we're going to concentrate on the Four Factors and starting lineups. I'll mostly be using regular season data, because which do you think is a better indication of team skill, the last six games or the previous 82?

Cavaliers offense vs. Pistons defense

• Shooting. Last time around, I said the Cavaliers' shooting was "rather middling." Despite what you saw against the defenseless Wizards, this still holds true. Unfortunately for the Cavs, the Pistons are 5th-best in the league with a .477 eFG allowed. I'm not sure whether Detroit defends jumpers very well, doesn't give up many easy layups, or a combination of the two, but judging from Game 1 (where the Cavs went 3-10 for three), I don't think the Cavs should rely on jumpers.
• Turnovers The Pistons and Cavaliers seem evenly matched here. The Cavs were 12th in the NBA at avoiding TOs offensively (15.6%), while the Pistons were 10th at collecting them defensively (16.2%). If the Cavs start coughing up the ball, it'll be because they're beating themselves. This isn't the Pistons' strong suit.
• Offensive rebounds. A refrain from all season: Cleveland attacks the offensive boards. A little known fact about Ben Wallace and his brethren: they can be attacked on the offensive boards. Detroit was 6th worst in the NBA in OReb% allowed (28.8, one ahead of Washington).
• Getting to the foul line. The Cavaliers' biggest strength is the Pistons' even bigger strength. The Cavs were 7th in getting to the line (.263 FT/FG) but the Pistons were 1st in not sending the opposing offense to the stripe (.191 FT/FG). Given Detroit's lack of depth, this is a smart strategy, since you avoid having to dip into the bench due to foul trouble. Trying to attack this lack of depth would be like banging your head against the wall--the Pistons just don't get into foul trouble much. I'd say LeBron and company should still drive the lane, but don't expect many free points.

The Pistons were fifth in the league in defensive efficiency for a reason. The Cavaliers need to convert as many easy shots as they can, because they won't come often. Also, pound that offensive glass without abandon. It's Cleveland's one strength here, and second chance shots often lead to foul shots, which lead to that tasty Detroit bench.

Cavaliers defense vs. Pistons offense

• Shooting. The Pistons shoot very well (.497 eFG, 7th in the NBA) while the Cavaliers are just about average defensively (.490, 15th). Only Tayshaun Prince and Ben Wallace weren't real offensive threats during the regular season and Prince promptly went off against the Cavs in Game 1. I'd say blanket Billups and Hamilton as best you can, and hope for the best.
• Turnovers. Don't expect many Cleveland fast breaks. The Cavs, third worst in the NBA in forcing TOs (.148 TO%), don't match up well with the NBA leaders at holding onto the basketball (.132). With these kind of numbers, don't even try for that steal, I'd say, you're probably going to get burned. Instead, the Cavs should try to play as best man-on-man defense as possible.
• Offensive rebounds. Ben Wallace and Antonio McDyess make their presence felt on the offensive glass; The Pistons were 7th in the NBA (.289 OReb%). Thankfully, the Cavs control the defensive glass as well. They were 4th in the NBA in OReb% allowed (.243). I expect Ben Wallace to have a quiet series.
• Getting to the foul line. Just a warning, but this Eastern Conference Semi-Final might feature some quick games. The Pistons, who I mentioned earlier lead the league in avoiding fouling the other offense, also avoids getting fouled itself. Counterintuitive to Detroit's image as bruisers, they were 5th worst in the NBA (.216 FT/FG). The Cavaliers are no slouches themselves when it comes to avoiding fouling the opponent. They were 5th in the league, with a .226 FT/FG.

Cleveland has the advantage when it comes to rebounding and foul shooting. Unfortunately, these are the two least important factors. I wouldn't say that the team is hopeless or anything like that, but they are definite underdogs. This is especially true considering the "magnificence" of their defense against Washington. My advice? Pray.

Starting lineups

• Point guard. By both John Hollinger's (23.4 PER) and Dean Oliver's (.919 PWP) metrics, Chauncey Billups was one of the best players in the NBA this season. Eric Snow? Not so good. If the Cavs can avoid a shellacking at this position, consider it a moral victory.
• Shooting guard. Using just the sample of this season, Richard Hamilton and Larry Hughes might both be the most overrated player on their team. That aside, Hamilton is still better than Hughes--being a deadly spot-up shooter who doesn't hurt the team much with turnovers. Hughes doesn't suck, but his 2004-2005 was a Contract Year Fluke. Pistons have the advantage again.
• Small forward. Please.
• Power forward. One of the least deserving all-stars of my lifetime, Rasheed Wallace is still a good player. But put Drew Gooden on the Pistons, and he would be an even more deserving all-star. It's too bad that Gooden is banged up, because neither Varejão nor Marshall (despite their strengths) can match his production. If Gooden leaves as a free agent, Clevelanders might celebrate in the streets, but they'd be idiots to do so.
• Center. Ben Wallace might be the "heart and soul of the Detroit Pistons" and all that nonsense, but Zydrunas Ilgauskas is the better player. Wallace is the better rebounder and defender, but Z is lightyears ahead in every offensive category. Much like Wallace's afro, Z's beard is an invaluable asset to the team.

To be blunt, it doesn't look good for the Cavaliers. They don't deserve to be blown out every game, but it would be absurd to argue that the Cavaliers are the better team. When the team loses, please don't talk about "learning experiences" or how Cleveland gained so much by witnessing how Detroit plays. That's ridiculous tripe and I don't want to hear it. Cleveland has only one thing to hope for: MORAL VICTORY!

Is this the greatest moment in Cleveland pro sports since we started this blog in July 2004? Probably!

The Cavs are going to the Conference Semis, praised be LeBron. Before we start thinking about the Pistons, though, let's take a statistical look at the series with Washington. In his series preview, Alex showed that the Cavaliers were the better squad, both in terms of team statistics and individual matchups. What he didn't mention, though, was the fact that, in four regular season games, for whatever reason, the Cavaliers were badly outplayed by the Wizards (Off. Efficiency 106.3, Def. Efficiency 112.7).

So while the Cavs ended up winning four of six in the playoffs, you may not be surprised to learn that, statistically, the two teams performed at almost identical levels. The Cavs scored 609 points; the Wizards scored 610 points. The Cavs averaged 109.9 points per 100 possessions; the Wizards averaged 110.4. And while Wizards shot slightly better (.545 True Shooting to the Cavs' .539), the Cavs owned the boards (265 to 235).

The Cavs owe their victory in round one to a combination of luck and clutchness. When you and your opponent are scoring the same number of points per possession over a given span, it really, really helps to have the last possession, which the Cavs did on more than one occasion.

So which Cavaliers performed best in the series? LeBron, obviously, had Himself an amazing offensive series, especially in terms of shooting, with a stellar True Shooting Percentage of .599 (well over His usual rate). Drew Gooden, in limited minutes, grabbed an incredible 24.0% of available rebounds, to lead the team, and put up a TS% of .603. Eric Snow paced the Cavs in terms of Assist Ratio, with an impressive 20.9. Anderson Varejão was probably the biggest surprise, with a .683 TS% (second only to Damon Jones, who only attempted 3 shots) and a Rebound Rate of 17.6.

In fact, the only two Cavaliers who didn't have great series were Zydrunas Ilgauskas (.495 TS%, 13.1 RbR) and Larry Hughes (.394 TS% despite attempting the second-most shots). I'll even give Flip "Ronald" Murray credit for a solid performance (.522 TS%, 12.1 AsR).

I don't have to tell you that the opposition is about to get a lot tougher. We'll have an in-depth preview of the second round up on the blog within a few days. For now, Cavs fans, enjoy this victory!

And praised be LeBron!

With another Indians season comes another installment in my never-ending quest to try all the food at Jacobs Field and assign it a grade. For those of you who need catching up:

• Concessions Reviews: Jacobs Field, Volume 1
• Concessions Reviews: Jacobs Field, Volume 2
• Concessions Reviews: Jacobs Field, Volume 3
• Concessions Reviews: Jacobs Field, Volume 4

This edition will have a decided "New in '06" flavor.

Slider's Super Burger. The headliner of the 2006 new concessions package, "Slider's Super Burger" is, as best I can tell, the same as the previously available "cheeseburger" except it has some kind of orange-colored sauce (and is presumably brought to you by the Fuchsia One himself). On the one hand, the quality of beef patties at Jacobs Field has never been that good, the buns are a little big for the amount of meat they give you, and the addition of orange-colored sauce doesn't bring much to the table other than dripping on my shirt, making me look quite the fool. Of course, on the other hand, I really like burgers. Grade: C+

BBQ Fries. Also available are garlic fries, sweet and sour fries, atomic fries, and ranch-flavored fries. I am all for fry variety, and while I only got to try one of the many new flavors, the BBQ fries did not disappoint. I'm not certain, but I believe the only fries you could get at the Jake pre-2006 were curly fries, which are okay, but not everyone's cup of tea. These fries are straight-cut and meaty (er, potatoey), with a topping of barbecue spices (like on BBQ potato chips) and barbecue sauce for dipping. I had no complaints. Grade: A-

Chocolate Milkshake. To be found at the same concession stand as the Slider's Super Burger and the various new types of fries are chocolate, vanilla, and chocolate banana milkshakes. I'm a big milkshake fan myself, and I know that there are few ways you can screw up a milkshake. Basically, if you get the proportion of ice cream to milk correct--which this one had--your shake will be good. I don't know if they were using Strickland's, Pierre's, generic, or what, because no advertisement was made (it was probably generic soft serve). Regardless, it was thick enough, big enough, and topped with whipped cream. Grade: B+

Onion Rings. Okay, so this item is not new for 2006, but I have always loved the onion rings at Jacobs Field. Honestly, whenever I have onion rings at a real restaurant, I always ponder how the ones at the Jake could be that much better. They're just the way I like 'em: thick-cut and doughy. If you have been to a lot of Indians games but never tried them (which I can understand; they're kind of hard to locate), I highly recommend you head over to the third base side for some rings. Grade: A

So far, I have found the concessions additions for 2006 to be positive. There are still a few new items I have to try, though, so another edition of Concessions Review won't be far off!