Last update: 7:12 PM

Much to Corey's dismay, I will not be attending today's festivities, but I will be doing the next best thing: not attending today's festivities. I think that's all you're going to get introduction-wise from me. There isn't much to introduce anymore--we all know what the NFL Draft is, right? Right. To recap the name all-stars I highlighted before Day 1, only D'Qwell Jackson was selected. And, good lordy, it was by the Browns! Can Phil Savage outdo himself? Who are the future winners of the Obscure Brown of the Week prize? How many times will the ESPN crew talk about guys drafted in the 1st round despite it being the 5th round? We'll find out shortly!

12:03 PM

Alex says: The Browns are already dipping into the "unused potential" pool in the fourth round. The first pick, inside linebacker Leon Williams from Miami, seems like an out-and-out reach. The NFL.com scouting report paints him to be a potential undrafted free agent. Oh well, I can only assume the front office knows something. The second pick, guard Isaac Sowells from Indiana, is another huge guy who is lacking in fundamentals, consistency, yadda yadda yadda. If there's one lesson from the NBA draft we can transpose to it's NFL counterpart, it's that you can't teach size.

I can't be sure, but it appears that both fourth rounders majored in "playing football". Williams officially studied Liberal Arts while Sowells concentrated on General Studies. Sounds challenging. At least the Browns weren't messing around with running backs or some other position they don't need, but I wonder whether Williams was the best choice.

P.S. Sowells's middle name is "DeHaven".

12:47 PM

Corey says: Lack of an internet connection has never stopped me before, has it? We're reaching the point in the draft where none of us has any clue whether a draftee has real talent or not (not that our opinions of Kamerion Wimbley et al. have any merit whatsoever). An offensive tackle, great. Another inside linebacker, fine. What's really important in the late rounds are the crazy names and unusual trivia, so the Browns better get cracking.

Rumors are persisting that the Browns will trade one of their fifth (possibly sixth) round picks for--brace yourself--Joey Harrington. My initial reaction to this is, what do the Browns possibly have to gain by this? Harrington's chances of being better than Charlie Frye are remote, at best. He will turn 28 this year, which means his window for improvement is closing fast, if not already closed. In four seasons he has put up these numbers:

     passes DPAR   DVOA
2002  438  -19.4  -23.5%
2003  566  -24.6  -23.5%
2004  520    6.5  -10.2%
2005  354    7.2   -8.3%

So at least he has improved over the course of his career. One thing that can be said for him is that he has never had much support in terms of the talent of the players around him and the effectiveness of the coaching scheme in Detroit. Of course, over the last four seasons, the Detroit offense has been no worse than the Cleveland offense; I think we could reasonably expect Joey Harrington in a Browns uniform to duplicate his 2005 DVOA--or do worse. And that's not good enough.

Perhaps the biggest reason to boo this proposed trade is the fact that none of us wants to suffer through listening to the idiots in the local media talk once again about "quarterback controversies" and how bringing in other quarterbacks creates uncertainty in the locker room that will take away Charlie Frye's ability to have confidence, look at himself in the mirror, open a can of tuna, etc. etc.

Vote NO on Harrington!

1:40 PM

Corey says: With their first of two fifth-round picks, the Browns just took Jerome Harrison, a running back from Washington State. Trying... to suppress... usual... rant... on running backs... agh! You may be aware that I am vehemently against investing resources in running backs. I can probably live with a fifth-round pick such as this, but the fact is, running backs are mostly interchangeable. It should be a tip-off that, every year, all across the NFL, backup running backs on a given team do about as well on a per-carry basis as the starter.

The fact that the Browns already have three credible starters at running back makes this pick even more of a head-scratcher. Frankly, I'm getting a little tired of the routine where the Browns, in drafting "the best talent available", create an overflow of depth at a certain position, which they address by trading one of the previously entrenched players on the roster for something that is invariably not as good, like a fifth-round draft pick. This happened to Andre Davis after we drafted Braylon Edwards; it happened to Chris Crocker after we drafted Sean Jones and Brodney Pool in back-to-back years. And it's likely to happen to Lee Suggs after we drafted Jerome Harrison.

1:49 PM

Corey says: With their other fifth-round pick, the Browns just drafted DeMario Minter, a cornerback from Georgia. Apparently he is very, very fast. Perhaps he will fill our favorite role in 2006, that of gunner on punts. He seems ripe for it! And his name is DeMario; that's pretty good.

3:16 PM

Alex says: With back-to-back picks in the sixth round, the Browns got a Haloti Ngata-type nose tackle and a serviceable backup to Terrelle Smith. The nose tackle, Babatunde Oshinowo from Stanford, has several things going his way: (1) His name, (2) he's fat, and (3) his name. Basically, I've already fallen in love with Babatunde. I suspect Oshinowo will compete with Ethan Kelley to backup Ted Washington. That's a pretty good pick for the sixth round.

Lawrence Vickers, a fullback from Colorado, is apparently more skilled at the rushing and catching rather than blocking. Whatever, best case scenario he won't be more than a special teams player for a couple seasons. However, and this is extrapolating way too much, the decision to build up fullback depth is a little concerning. Corey and I have nothing but contempt for Maurice Carthon's "put everyone in the middle of the field" play-calling. Fullbacks only exacerbate this problem--when was the last time Terrelle Smith lined up out wide? Exactly.

3:44 PM

Corey says: All praise Babatunde! The list of awesome things about this guy goes on forever, for real. Check out the trivia at the bottom of this page and watch this video. I could not be more excited for a Browns draftee than I am for Babatunde Oluwasegun Temitope Oluwakorede Adisa Oshinowo Jr.!

3:58 PM

Alex says: Just to spotlight more of Babatunde Oshinowo's awesomeness, the following is an exchange from an interview with FFLiveWire:

Luke Nicholson: Finish the following sentence: Babatunde Oshinowo is tougher than…

Babatunde Oshinowo: you.

My first son will now be named LeBron Babatunde Rubin.

5:15 PM

Alex says: The team's final pick, and official Worst Brown of 2006, was Justin Hamilton of Virginia Tech. Justin is such a big name, NFL.com has no scouting report on him. Hamilton moved to the defensive backfield from it's offensive equal. I think that's the last we'll ever hear from Mr. Hamilton barring some miracle.

7:12 PM

Alex says: The 2006 draft is over. I think we grew as a society during these trying times, and learned valuable life lessons. I, for one, learned that teams aren't as attuned to the importance of funny names as they should be. The Browns on the whole did well to nab a Wimbley, a D'Qwell, a DeMario, and a Babatunde Oshinowo. However, only D'Qwell and Guy Whimper of my original Players to Watch list had their (awesome) names called this weekend. On the bright side, this leaves the door open for the Browns to sign the likes of Damarius Bilbo and Jamaal Fudge as undrafted free agents.

Mike Tanier of Football Outsiders says, "it takes six years to evaluate a draft," but I'm confident in my ability to accurately rate the Browns's efforts from the past two days. I'd give the team an A+. I don't care what the so-called "pundits" have to say. Nabbing ten future Hall of Famers in one draft class is always impressive--regardless of the rumors of the front office's unchecked abuse of performance enhancing drugs.

Last updated: 12:15 AM

Surely the NFL cannot top the non-stop action of last year's draft, can it? 2005 saw the Browns nab future superstars Braylon Edwards and Charlie Frye and a bunch of other guys. The sole area Phil Savage and his minions clearly missed was cool names. Sure, Nick Speegle isn't half-bad, but Corey and I still rue the loss of Richie Incognito.

This year we're still optimistic. Draft pundits worldwide will be watching to see where prospects like Sir Henry Anderson of Oregon State, Damarius Bilbo of Georgia Tech, De De Dorsey of Lafayette, Jamaal Fudge of Clemson, Quadtrine Harris of Miami, D'Qwell Jackson of Maryland, Drouzon Quillen of New Mexico, Pope Roshawn of Houston, Dartangon Shack of Fresno State, and Guy Whimper of East Carolina end up. We'll be weighing in periodically throughout the day with the skewed viewpoint you've come to love (or at least withstand), so don't forget to hit reload a lot.

1:32 AM

Corey says: There are less than 11 hours to go until the draft begins, which, of course, is more than enough time to speculate on who the Browns might pick in the first round. If you heard my interview on Sports Bloggers Live this week, you know that I took the time to tally the results from the first 50 or so mock drafts I was able to find on Google. Unfortunately, I forgot to post that tally when I first researched it. But luckily for you, just now I did it over again. This time I counted up the first 56 mock drafts that came up on Google:

                             drafted  avail.
Haloti Ngata      DT  Oregon   14       19
Kamerion Wimbley  DE  FSU      14       55
Brodrick Bunkley  DT  FSU       8       27
Manny Lawson      LB  NC State  5       56
Winston Justice   OT  USC       4       33
Chad Greenway     LB  Iowa      4       55
LenDale White     RB  USC       3       55
Ernie Sims        LB  FSU       2       46
Jay Cutler        QB  Vandy     1       10
Jimmy Williams    CB  VA Tech   1       39

As you can see, there is a strong consensus that the Browns will draft on the defensive side; specifically, in the front seven (47 of 56 times, the Browns tabbed a defensive lineman or linebacker). This certainly reflects our analysis of last season's defense (excellent pass coverage, poor run defense, embarrassingly poor pass rush). I also think those Jay Cutler, Jimmy Williams and LenDale White prognostications are a bit wacky.

Whereas my previous research showed the Browns favoring Ngata and Bunkley over Wimbley, this time around I found more so-called "experts" had the Browns taking Wimbley. Either the consensus has shifted in the last week or Google is playing games with me. I think we can establish three categories of draft prospects with regard to the Browns' first round pick:

• Guys who will not be available. There are eight of them that are definite: Mario Williams, Reggie Bush, D'Brickashaw Ferguson (sigh), Matt Leinart, Vince Young, A.J. Hawk, Vernon Davis, and Michael Huff. In the mock drafts I counted, these eight were almost always all gone by the time the 12th pick came around.
• Guys who would have to fall to the Browns. These include Ngata (more on him below), Bunkley, and Justice, among others.
• Guys the Browns can have at will. Obviously, there are an infinite number of these, but four or five have been mentioned as potential Browns picks, including Wimbley, Lawson, Greenway, White, and Sims.

So while Ngata and Wimbley tied for the lead in my little tally, note that Ngata is in the second category and Wimbley in the third. Ngata is clearly regarded as the better player. It seemed to me, though I didn't keep track, that the vast majority of instances in which Ngata was unavailable were the result of his being mock-drafted by the Bills at #8. We should all pay close attention to the Bills' pick; whether or not they take Ngata will likely dictate the Browns' choice. If Ngata is available, I think the Browns will take him (and be thrilled about it).

Our next update will be around the time of the Browns' first pick. Stay tuned!

1:28 PM

Corey says: The Bills came out of left field and picked Donte Whitner, the Ohio State safety (born and raised in Cleveland). Not only is this shocking, it leaves a definite opening for the Browns to grab Ngata or at least someone higher on their draft board, as the Bills and Browns were thought to be in competition with one another for defensive linemen. Pick #12 is only like an hour away!

2:19 PM

Alex says: Coming into their 12th overall pick, the top five players Corey highlighted earlier as potential picks were all available. Unfortunately, the word "Browns" had not been uttered by the ESPN crew until there were less than 6:00 left on the clock. Plus, frankly, it's insulting to hear Reggie Bush being compared to LeBron James. Reggie Bush may be like any other professional athlete in human history, but to even think he's somehow similar to The Chosen One... well, I can't even put my thoughts into words. Let's just say that some people are in for a rude awakening.

Shockingly, the Browns shocked everyone, and most importantly me, by trading to the Baltimorons. Everyone was all excited for the Haloti Ngata era and here comes the "Trade to the Baltimore Ravens" era. Much like the Lions hosing the Browns two seasons ago for Kellen Winslow, the Browns hosed the Ravens for Ngata. Well, maybe not to the same extent--I'm not sure there will ever be another NFL coach with the drafting expertise of Butch Davis. But a 6th-round pick for dropping only one spot ain't bad, not to mention increased affordability for essentially the same pick.

Kamerion Wimbley is alright by me. I'd never heard of him until a few weeks ago. Everyone is absolutely convinced the Browns needed to draft in the defensive front seven, but personally, I wouldn't have been disappointed by a pick for any position. It's not like they're busting at the seams with talent. Plus, with all these FSU defenders being 1st rounders (Wimbley, Bunkley, Sims, etc.) how come the Florida State defense wasn't freakin' amazing last year? I suspect some sort of team-wide-overratedness going on here.

Also, does this now mean that Ted Washington will have to play all the snaps at nose tackle? Please, don't tell me that Jason Fisk will get significant playing time again.

2:47 PM

Corey says: Here are my thoughts on both the pick of Kamerion Wimbley and the decision to trade the #12 pick.

Regarding Wimbley, I suspect, since the Browns had the opportunity to draft either Ngata or Brodrick Bunkley, that Wimbley was their preference all along. If that was the case, great. I do have concerns, though, about how playing time will be distributed at the end and outside linebacker positions this year. Wimbley is essentially another Kenard Lang... who is no longer with the team. But Willie McGinest was supposed to be filling that role; Wimbley will probably be taking playing time away from Alvin "Mount" McKinley. Fair enough. My biggest concern, as Alex mentioned, is the fact that Ted Washington, who is not capable of playing every snap, has no platoon partner. Jason Fisk, who was pretty bad last year anyway, is no longer with the Browns. It looks as though Ethan Kelley will be getting his fair share of exposure in 2006.

Trading the #12 pick for the #13 pick is good--don't let anyone tell you otherwise. Historically, the difference in talent between #12 picks and #13 picks is probably negligible or close to it. On top of that, first round draft picks, on average, are not worth the money they get paid, in terms of on-the-field value. The further you get from the first overall pick--and the closer you get to the 43rd overall pick (11th in the 2nd round), suggested as the "optimal" pick by Michael David Smith and others, the better off you are. The only conceivable reason for keeping the 12th pick would be to draft Ngata, and the Browns obviously didn't want him. The sixth round pick they're getting from Baltimore, minor though it may be, is just gravy.

The Browns are now loaded with late round picks, thanks to this trade, the Chris Crocker trade (which, not surprisingly, I hated), and the Andre Davis trade (which I really, really hated). We will see the team draft 2 guys each in the 4th, 5th and 6th rounds, so you know our Day 2 coverage will be extremely fast-moving--just like the draft itself!

3:04 PM

Corey says: Speaking of that #43 overall pick--the most valuable pick in the NFL draft--the Browns actually have that pick this year! I don't know why this didn't occur to me sooner. Like most people, I know far less about the players who will be available in the second round than in the first, so it would be foolish to speculate on who the Browns could select. I will say that the biggest areas of need, in my estimation, are still nose tackle and inside linebacker. Of course, an offensive line pick would also be most excellent. Only like 300 more hours until the Browns are on the clock again!!!

5:28 PM

Alex says: The miracle is real! The Browns, executing the greatest draft day steal since nabbing Ryan Pontbriand in 2003, moved up in the second round to snatch perhaps the greatest name available: D'Qwell Jackson. In the process they had to swap 2nd-rounders with the Saints and lose Jeff Faine, but it might just be worth it. With LeCharles Bentley around, Faine became an obvious luxury item and trade bait. Ironically, in the end, the Browns ended up with Bentley while the Saints got stuck with Faine.

Jackson, an inside linebacker from Maryland, is the type of player all of Cleveland has been demanding the Browns draft highly this year. All of the scouting reports sketch D'Qwell as a "smart" player lacking top notch physical skills. Fine by me. Jackson might be the best "First name on the back of a custom jersey" Brown of all-time, even surpassing Orpheus Roye. All of this, of course, relies on D'Qwell being good. I like the way this day is turning out.

6:05 PM

Corey says: Okay, so we had to abandon the optimal #43 pick and lose depth on the offensive line, but we got a guy with a cool name! According to various internet sources, it's pronounced "dee-KWELL" with an /i/ vowel instead of the schwa that is implied by the apostrophe. It could almost be spelled "D-Qwell", with a dash. Either way, he is an instant Mistake by the Lake favorite. The only thing that lingers at the back of my mind is, could we still have drafted him if we'd waited 11 more picks? If we'd traded Jeff Faine and the #43 pick for the chance to draft a guy named, oh, Bill Anderson at pick #34, I might be upset.

Hey, at least the Steelers stupidly gave up a 3rd rounder and a 4th rounder just to move up 7 spots in the first round.

In terms of the bigger picture, the Browns have now added two linebackers and lost an offensive lineman. I really hope that the next couple of picks include an offensive lineman (or two) and a nose tackle. The next pick (and last for today), barring another trade, will be #78 overall. At this breakneck pace, that could take place as soon as 9 or 10 o'clock--so don't stray too far!

9:06 PM

Corey says: With their third round pick the Browns have selected Travis Wilson, a wide receiver from Oklahoma. I get that Phil Savage likes to ignore team needs in favor of the best talent available, but the further you get in the draft, the harder it is to say with confidence just who the best talent might be. I find it hard to believe that there weren't any comparable linemen, offensive or defensive, available.

If I were to try and rank the areas of least need for the Browns entering the third round, wide receiver might have been up there with tight end, cornerback, and running back. Now, wide receiver is unquestionably the position of least need for the Browns. Wilson will most likely be the #4 receiver behind Edwards, Jurevicius and Northcutt, pushing Frisman Jackson, himself about average (or better) for a #4 receiver, further down the depth chart.

In all likelihood, that's it for the Browns on day 1 of the draft. Alex and I will probably have more to say later tonight, however, so stay tuned.

12:15 AM

Alex says: Consider this a wrap-up of the first day's events. I've listened to the media conference calls with all three picks, and each has a different demeanor. Kamerion Wimbley is very articulate and laid back. He's already saying all the right things about the Browns and switching from defensive end to outside linebacker. D'Qwell Jackson emphasized his work ethic and seemed very excited that Phil Savage compared him to Ray Lewis. Travis Wilson is beyond confident, stating, "I know I'm the best receiver in the draft."

Speaking of Wilson, I believe Corey's criticism of his selection is misguided. It's not so obvious that wide receiver is a position of strength for the team. Remember, Braylon Edwards is recuperating from a serious knee injury. Joe Jurevicius is already on the wrong side of 30. Dennis Northcutt, his punt returning skills notwithstanding, has only had one productive year as a wideout, that being in 2002. After those three, I think Wilson would be the best option.

I haven't had time to gauge the aggregate Cleveland reaction to the first three rounds, but I'm content. No doubt people will lament the loss of Jeff Faine, but perhaps he wouldn't take to a switch to guard. What good is there to having the absolute best backup center in the league? Especially since the Browns recently signed Mentor native Bob Hallen for such a role. Of course, if D'Qwell Jackson was named Jason Jackson instead, I'd be incensed too.

Don't forget, fans, Corey and I (or possibly just me if Corey's internet connection doesn't hold out) will be back tomorrow for even more heart-pounding NFL draft action. Make sure to check back with us tomorrow.

Although I was interviewed last Friday about the Browns' upcoming draft, "Sports Bloggers Live" didn't actually air until Monday evening (my bad), so I'm guessing you all missed it.

You can still hear it by going to Sports Bloggers Live and listening on the site. Or you can download this week's show here. My interview starts at about the 37:00 mark and lasts about 5 minutes. As of yet, I don't have an mp3 of my segment alone--only of the entire show.

Sorry for the late notice, but I'm going to be on "Sports Bloggers Live" once again--this time to discuss the Browns' 2006 draft. I'm supposed to be on around 12:35 PM EST or so. Alex would join me but he's going to be in class. You can just go to the website and the show ought to start playing.

I could wax poetic on the Cavaliers playoff drought and the magnificence of LeBron, but let's jump right into the extravaganzaing, shall we? I've broken this down first into each team's offense versus the other's defense, and further into evaluating each unit by way of the Four Factors. Don't forget, the factors are presented in descending order of importance.

Cavaliers offense vs. Wizards defense

• Shooting. The Cavaliers have been rather middling with their shooting efficiency (13th in the NBA, .492 eFG) this season. However, given Washington's poor shot defense (24th, .505 eFG), I'd say the Cavaliers have a marked advantage in this factor. It would seem that the Cavs shouldn't have much problems finding good shots.
• Turnovers. The Wizards greatest defensive strength lies in their ability to force turnovers. They were 2nd in the NBA, causing a turnover more once per six possessions. The Cavaliers were above league average at avoiding TOs, but not by much (12th in the NBA)--coughing up the ball on 15.6% of possessions. Mike Brown would do well to make sure LeBron runs the offense, since his miniscule TO-rate of 8.8% is second only to Damon Jones on the team.
• Offensive rebounding. It's no secret that the Cavaliers usually have the rebounding edge thanks to Z, Drew Gooden, and Anderson Varejao, but surprisingly their offensive rebounding percentage dropped to 28.4 by the end of the season, leaving them 10th in the league. Washington is a team that can be victimized on the defensive glass--they were 5th-worst in opponents OReb% (29.2). The Cavaliers big men should play a big role if the team is to win.
• Getting to the foul line. It's a little known secret, but Cleveland's greatest strength on offense has been it's ability to beat a path to the foul line. 7th in the NBA (.263 FT/FG) thanks to (in order of importance) Z, LeBron, Anderson, Gooden, and Hughes, the Cavaliers ought not to see a decrease in their foul shooting ways (barring wacky refereeing) since the Wizards defense was only 19th in the league (.257 FT/FG).

Cleveland has a real edge when on offense, as demonstrated by its superiority in three of the four factors. They might turn the ball over more than we'd like, but chances are the team will shoot a high percentage, pull down plenty of second chance rebounds, and draw plenty of fouls. The Cavaliers will likely score more than enough points to win. If they don't win, I'd bet it's their defense that'll let them down.

Cavaliers defense vs. Wizards offense

• Shooting. Well, the Cavs shot defense is exactly league average (15th, .490 eFG) and the Wizards kind of suck (21st, .485). Gilbert Arena, Brendan Haywood, and Etan Thomas are the only Wizards with effective field goal percentages above 50%. And frankly, only Arenas is much of a threat from the floor.
• Turnovers. LeBron may have been 15th in the NBA in steals, but don't expect many from the Cavaliers in this series. The team is third-worst in the NBA at forcing turnovers (14.8%) while the Wizards are 6th-best (15.2%). I don't foresee many fastbreak opportunities for the LeBrons.
• Offensive rebounding. This will be an interesting battle; it's a strength for both teams. The Cavaliers are 4th in the league (24.3%) while the Wiz are 6th at 29.5%. The Wizards offensive rebounding strength is surprising given their defensive rebounding weakness. I am not sure what to predict here, but I will definitely keep my eye on the Cavs rebounding on the defensive end.
• Getting to the foul line. Yet again, we see another clash of strengths. The Cavaliers are loath to commit shooting fouls (5th in the NBA, .226 FT/FG) while the Wizards get to the line even more than the Cavs do (4th, .285). Personally, I believe that the Wizards will see their foul shooting numbers fall in the series since even if they are really, really good at drawing fouls, they can't do so unless the Cavaliers actually foul them. And it seems that the Cavs don't do that very often.

Both Washington and Cleveland have a clear advantage in one factor, while the other two are a wash. Fortunately, the Cavaliers' advantage comes in the most important factor. According to these team statistics, if the Cavs defense can merely hold it's weight and allow the offense to do the heavy lifting, I think the team will be a great position to advance to the second round.

Starting lineups

There is a slight complication when it comes to evaluating playoff basketball: it truly is different than the regular season. Phenomena such as player's trying harder or anything like that are (if they exist), to say the least, impossible to quantify with the available statistics. One proven occurrence, however, is that coaches rely much, much more heavily on their starting lineups. Part of this is the extended 15-minute commercial breaks and 2-hour half times of playoff games and part is coaches not afraid of tiring out their players since there's nothing to lose. On that note, let's run down the starters for both teams, to see if either has a lead.

• Point guard: Eric Snow vs. Gilbert Arenas. Everybody knows what you get with Eric Snow, good defense, good passing, and not much shooting. Arenas is clearly the alpha male of the Wizards. He leads the team in PER and shoots enough for nearly two people. Even if Eric Snow was a shut-down artist, it's hard to imagine this match-up as one of strength for the Cavaliers.
• Shooting guard: Flip Murray vs. Jared Jeffries. We here at the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times are nothing if not forthcoming with our displeasure with the play of Flip "Ronald" Murray, and believe no further comments are necessary. Miraculously, Jeffries isn't much better for Washington. He has no real weakness in his game, but then again, he has no real strength either. Unless Murray comes through with some of his patented clutchness, I don't see either team have a distinct advantage here.
• Small forward: LeBron James vs. Caron Butler. Please.
• Power forward: Drew Gooden vs. Antawn Jamison. Both players have identical PERs, but through radically different means. Gooden is a rebound-and-putback machine, while Jamison works more with the sissy jump shot. Jamison doesn't collect many rebounds or draw many fouls, but is very efficient and doesn't turn it over. Both players are very skilled in different facets and it's hard to distinguish the better of the two.
• Center: Zydrunas Ilgauskas vs. Brendan Haywood. If my analysis has been correct so far, the Cavaliers should win the series based on Z's domination of Haywood. Haywood isn't a slouch, but he's nowhere near Z's all star levels. Basically, Haywood is talented, but just doesn't shoot enough to make a huge impact--Ilgauskas nearly doubles his usage rate. And, if all else fails, send Haywood to the line; he connects on less than 60%.

All in all, the Cavaliers are sittin' pretty for a win in the first round. Throw in a little home court advantage, and things look even better. I'm not sure how much playoff experience really matters (I'd love to see some data on it, if anyone knows), so I can't comment whether LeBron and company's inexperience will effect matters much. Personally, I'm inclined to say they won't, but crazier things have happened. Go Cavs!

As the Cavaliers prepare to enter this strange new world they tell me is called "Playoffs," I'd like to take a moment or two to look back on the regular season. Specifically, I'd like to revisit a few of the big issues we've covered this season to see where things ended up.

We can probably all agree that the '05-'06 regular season represented a major positive step for the franchise. With 50 wins, the Cavs managed the 3rd best record in the East and the 6th best in the NBA. They also posted the 4th best record in franchise history.

Not that Cavs fans, as a group, weren't characteristically pessimistic all season long. The Cavs were very streaky this season, particularly in the first half, which gave fans and the media plenty of opportunities to find fault. Here is the ever-popular season game-o-graph, or season point differential graph, for '05-'06 (click to enlarge):



As you can see, each time it looked like things might fall apart, the Cavs pulled themselves together in a big way.

Another graph that paints a pretty reliable picture of the Cavs' quality of play over the course of the season is this one, which shows the team's Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency over a series of overlapping 9-game periods, centered around each individual game (click to enlarge):



Not surprisingly, the Cavs played their best offense around the very beginning and near the end of the season. It's perhaps a bit surprising that they played their best defense during the middle part of the season. On the whole, the defense was more consistent (that is, less variable) than the offense. League average efficiency was probably somewhere around 104 points per 100 possessions, so if anything, the strength of the Cavaliers this season was the offense, in spite of the fluctuations.

Now, if you've been reading this blog for more than a month or so, you know that I am very much opposed to the presence of Flip Murray in the Cavs lineup (see rant #1 and rant #2). This flies in the face of the popular opinion around Cleveland, and in fact a number of our readers have taken issue with me. The "popular" version of the '05-'06 season goes something like this:

The Cavs started out pretty well but after Larry Hughes got injured they were victimized by a gaping Texas-sized hole in the lineup. Victimized, that is, until Danny Ferry pulled off the trade to end all trades, bringing the Kaiser of Clutch himself, the most confident and hoop-slashingest player this side of LeBron James, Flip "Ronald" Murray, to Cleveland, where he proceeded to will the Cavaliers to victory after victory by sheer strength of determination and moxie. Later, Larry Hughes returned to the lineup, not that we needed him anymore, and all rejoiced in our newfound embarrassment of riches.

Of course, the progression of Cavs wins and losses over the course of the season bears this description out to a certain degree. Any glance at the statistics, however, reveals a different story. Record does not always reflect performance, after all (right, Indians fans?).

Allow me to divide the season into a few different segments as I have done in the past. "Larry" will be games 1 through 28 (ie: everything prior to the Hughes injury). "Neither" will be games 29 through 54 (ie: the period after the Hughes injury but before the Murray trade). "Flip" will be games 55 through 73 (ie: the period after the Murray trade but before Hughes' return). And "Both" will be games 74 through 82 (ie: the rest of the season). Here is how the team performed in each segment:

           Larry  Neither  Flip    Both
games       28      26      19       9
Win pct.   .643    .538    .632    .667
Pyth. W%   .663    .541    .512    .560
O-Eff      112.4   106.6   105.0   108.5
D-Eff      105.7   104.9   105.8   107.2
Pace        90.2    89.0    88.0    89.6
TS%        .556    .522    .526    .551
Opp. TS%   .538    .528    .526    .533

Now, I wouldn't put much stock in the numbers for "Both", as the sample size is too small and, for much of that time, the team was either coasting or resting its starters. If anything, though, the team was at its worst after acquiring Murray. Sure, they won a lot of games in there, but, if you recall, they were, like, 1-point overtime victories against the Bobcats and Raptors and such. Beating a team by 1 at the buzzer is exciting and good for your record and all that, but if you were supposed to beat that team handily in the first place, it does not represent a positive achievement for you.

Someone is likely to point out to you at some point that, just as the Cavs went 18-10 before losing Larry Hughes to injury, they went 18-10 after acquiring Flip Murray. The Pythagorean win percentages over those two periods, however, are radically different. Over the first 28 games, the Cavs played like a .663 team, whereas over the final 28 games, they played like a .528 team. That is a significant difference.

When the Murray trade first happened, my reasons for being opposed to his getting so many minutes were based on the horrible track record established by his first three and a half years' worth of statistics. I will spare you another summary of those statistics; sufficed to say, the argument that Murray was bad prior to becoming a Cavalier is quite sound. It did not guarantee that he would continue to be bad as a Cavalier, mind you. It only suggested the probability of such.

As it turned out, during his 28 games in Cleveland, Murray managed to improve on one aspect of his game: his shooting (or, more likely, his shot selection). To some degree, of course, this could be the LeBron Effect, but he does deserve some credit (as do the Cavaliers coaches) for addressing a weakness in his game. Flip remained a terrible rebounder (4.0 RbR compared to his 6.2 career rate), a mediocre passer (15.2 AsR compared to his 14.2 career rate), and quite prone to fouls and turnovers; however, he managed to post a True Shooting Percentage of .520 while in a Cavs uniform (compared to his .477 career percentage).

Here is a graph of Flip Murray's True Shooting Percentage as a Cavalier, game-by-game (click to enlarge):



Like any player, he had hot stretches and cold stretches. Overall, though, he got more out of each shot he took than he had done in previous seasons.

Not that Murray suddenly became a good (or even decent) player. As a Cav, he actually undershot his career PER of 13.6, posting an 11.9 (league average is 15.0). I lack the resources to calculate his individual Offensive and Defensive efficiency ratings, so we'll have to wait until basketball-reference.com uploads 2006 stats; at the least, I find it hard to believe that Flip could undershoot his abysmal career PW% of .148.

That's enough Flip Murray talk for now. Regardless of what kind of negative effect he may have had, the '05-'06 season was a success for the Cavs. Now we have much more to discuss, such as how the Cavaliers match up with their first round opponents (stay tuned for the first ever Mistake by the Lake Playoff Preview Extravaganza!!!), why LeBron deserves to be crowned MVP (stay tuned for that diatribe as well), and possibly some end-of-season awards.

Now what is this "Playoffs" thing, exactly?

The truly loyal Indians fan, and Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times fan for that matter, is undoubtedly well versed in the world of The C.C. Hat. Since 2003, I have maintained the most complete catalogue of professional baseball players wearing crooked caps on the Internet. Last season, Corey and I pored over the available evidence to bring you the most up-to-date information on C.C. Hats money can buy. Except, well, you really didn't buy anything.

Being a cheap opportunist, I leech server space for my personal site off a friend of a friend. Well, it's more like the acquaintance of a friend of a friend. Basically, I've never met the guy. So, this past year when this stranger decided to change the password to the server, that somewhat limited my abilities to update my web site. Fortunately for me, I never kept track of his e-mail address and he deleted his web site too.

Despite these obstacles, I looked through the official MLB head-shots and feel you deserve to be informed about our beloved Tribe. First of all, the team's Grand High Exalted Mystic Ruler of C.C. Hats, none other than C.C. Sabathia, remains squarely on the forefront of hat styles. While he may not push the envelope like the younger and more brash stars of today, C.C. plays a competent Sgt. Murtaugh to Coco Crisp's Sgt. Riggs.

With the departures of Crisp and Brandon Phillips, Sabathia remains the lone survivor of the Great C.C. Hat Purge of 2006. I must give credit where credit is due, though, for Ronnie Belliard certainly looks quite debonair in his official portrait. I'm wary of declaring him a C.C. Hat for reasons of recent history. And while the stylings of Dr. Fausto certainly make me smile, not one member of the current next wave of Indians knows the proper way to wear a hat. Yet, as always, there is a glimmer of light.

Little is known about Andy Marte, except that one time he stood in front of all those tanks in Tiananmen Square, but it appears his hat is off-center. I've certainly been fooled before (thanks for nothing, Jason Davis), so if I could still edit "The C.C. Hat," Marte would fall onto the "Players to Watch" list.

Around the majors, Orlando Hudson, who was barred by the repressive Toronto hat-Gestapo from crooking his cap, has found greener pastures in Arizona's lust deserts. Using the exact scientific method of eyeballing it, I'd say that Hudson's hat is at least 5 degrees off center, which is an infinity percent improvement over last year. Let there be much rejoicing. Also, Abe Alvarez still rules.

One day, with a core of Sabathia and Marte, the Indians will again rise to the top of baseball's headwear food chain. But for now, the team will have to continue to rebuild and restock the farm system with promising young players. These might be lean years for the Tribe, but it could pay off in spades if Mark Shapiro plays his cards right.

Based on two games' worth of observation, things that are different at Jacobs Field in 2006, in descending order of importance:

• Johnny Applestix are no longer being offered with the lemon cheesecake dipping sauce, contrary to what the posted menu says. Instead there is some sort of vanilla-thing which may or may not be frosting. Boooo! (Although, I have not tried it yet.) More on this story as it develops.
• Slider has increased his harem of girls to about 15 or so and they are now called the "Fun Bunch". They look like they're in the 10th grade; they get up on the dugout in between innings and jump around and stuff. They seriously look as though they have no idea what they're supposed to do. It's quite embarassing for everyone involved.
• New concessions items include mini burgers, milkshakes, and new burrito flavors. I promise I will grade these items and more in an upcoming edition of Concessions Reviews.
• New scoreboard graphics and musical selections, neither of which are as good as last year.

Also, the Hot Dog Race season began tonight:

        wins
Ketchup   1
Mustard   0
Onion     0

Mustard was the 2005 champion, not that I ever had any doubt. You know I'll be rooting hard for a repeat in '06.

We've hinted at it several times before, but just how likely is it that LeBron James records a quadruple-double before all is said and done? It boggles my mind that this seemingly impossible feat has been accomplished even once, yet it has been done a total of four times since 1973 (while, two other times, a player has missed a quadruple-double by only one assist)! Clearly, it is possible.

So get ready for some heavy math. We're going to calculate some odds. For the purposes of this exercise, I will make a few assumptions:

• That LeBron maintains His '05-'06 rebound, assist, block, and steal ratios for the rest of His career. I realize that these ratios are, if anything, likely to improve as LeBron approaches His peak age, but who am I to say by how much? Besides, after LeBron reaches His peak, His stats will possibly start to decline again, so who knows what His career averages will end up being. His '05-'06 level of performance will have to serve as a reasonable proxy.
• That LeBron's playing time stays at its '05-'06 level. In other words, if He suddenly starts playing 48 minutes per game one year, His chances of accomplishing the feat will go up, but obviously, I can't assume that will happen.
• That the Cavs' keep their '05-'06 pace factor for the duration of LeBron's career. Again, if the Cavs suddenly start playing Phoenix-style basketball, it will be much easier for the players to accumulate counting stats like rebounds, assists, etc., but I will not assume that either.
• That LeBron's chances of scoring 10 or more points in any given game are 100%. He hasn't scored fewer than 10 all season. I think it's safe to assume that if He's getting minutes, He's scoring at least 10. This will make my calculations a lot easier, so just indulge me on this one.

Okay, let's begin. There are essentially two pieces of data we need to know for each stat category. One is the number of times per game LeBron will have the opportunity to add to His stat total. We'll call these "opportunities" (ie: "assist opportunities", "rebound opportunities", etc.). The second piece of data is the actual likelihood that LeBron succeeds on any given opportunity.

First, rebounds. A rebound opportunity is any missed shot, be it field goal or free throw, that is available to be rebounded. The number of these will equal the total number of rebounds by both the Cavs and their opponents, including team rebounds. But we only want to know how many of these there were while LeBron was on the court. Since, in '05-'06, LeBron has been on the court for 3213 of 3630 possible minutes, I will estimate the number of rebound opportunities He gets per game as

(3213/3630) * (Cavs TRB + opp. TRB)

which, for '05-'06, comes to about 73.19 rebound opportunities per game for LeBron. This does assume that field goals are missed at the same rate when LeBron is on the court as they are when He is on the bench, which is probably not a safe assumption, but it will make things a lot easier. At the least, the discrepancy is probably not very wide.

Now, using LeBron's actual rebound totals, we can estimate His chances of grabbing a rebound on any given opportunity. It's just rebounds divided by opportunities, and it comes to about 9.82%. This isn't too far off from LeBron's career Rebound Rate of 9.0, as provided by Basketball-Reference.com. Basically, LeBron rebounds about 9 or 10 out of every 100 balls that are available to Him.

Keeping that in mind, we move on to assists. An assist opportunity is any field goal made by one of your teammates. Using essentially the same method as for rebounds, we can estimate LeBron's assist opportunities as

((3213/3630) * Cavs FGM) - LeBron FGM

which, for '05-'06, comes to about 46.33 assist opportunities per game for LeBron. Now we estimate LeBron's probability of recording an assist on any given opportunity, using his actual assist totals. It comes to about 14.51%.

Next, steals. A steal opportunity is simply a possession for the opposing team. Once again, we can estimate the number of those that take place while LeBron is on the court as

(3213/3630) * opp. possessions

which, for '05-'06, comes to about 80.24 steal opportunities per game for LeBron. Using His actual steal totals from this season, we can estimate His chances of getting a steal on any given opportunity at about 2.01%.

Finally, blocked shots. A block opportunity is any field goal attempted by the opposing team. We estimate LeBron's block opportunities as

(3213/3630) * opp. FGA

which, for '05-'06, comes to about 69.89 block opportunities per game for LeBron. His estimated probability of recording a block on any given opportunity is about 1.24%, which more or less agrees with LeBron's '05-'06 "Block Pct" of 1.3% as provided by 82games.com.

So, to summarize what we have so far:

        opportunities  chance of success
          per game       on any given
rebound     73.19            9.82%
assist      46.33           14.51%
steal       80.24            2.01%
block       69.89            1.24%

Now comes the tricky part. We want to figure out, for each stat category, the probability that LeBron will record 10 or more of that stat in any given game. To do this, we're going to have to use the Binomial Probability Formula, which I'm sure you all remember (I know I didn't):

P(r) = nCr * pr * (1-p)n-r

where n equals the number of opportunities (or trials), r equals the number of successes among n trials, p equals the probability of success in any one trial, and nCr equals the number of combinations of n items, choosing r. Woo!

This formula, however, can only tell us, for example, the probability of LeBron recording exactly 10 assists in a game. To determine the probability of LeBron recording 10 or more assists in a game, we'd have to add the probability of His recording 10, plus the probability of His recording 11, plus the probability of His recording 12, and so on, all the way on up. Mercifully, I was able to get Microsoft Excel to do this tedious addition for us. Here's what we get when all the math is worked out:

                               probability
10 or more rebounds in a game     0.177
10 or more assists in a game      0.121
10 or more steals in a game    4.92 * 10-6
10 or more blocks in a game    1.50 * 10-8

In other words, LeBron should dish out at least 10 assists about 12.1% of the time. In actuality, through the first 75 games played, He had dished out 10 or more assists 9 times this season. That comes to exactly 12%. Pretty good!

We can now estimate the probability of LeBron recording the almighty quadruple-double. Assuming that points is going to be one of the stat categories in which you reach double digits, there are four possible ways to record a quadruple-double. Each one is the product of three of the component probabilities from the table above. Here is the probability of LeBron achieving each type of quadruple-double in any given game:

                        probability
pts, rebs, asts, stls   1.05 * 10-7
pts, rebs, asts, blks   3.20 * 10-10
pts, rebs, stls, blks   1.30 * 10-14
pts, asts, stls, blks   8.93 * 10-15

Adding them together, we get the grand master probability of LeBron recording any sort of quadruple-double in any given ballgame (drum roll please): 1.05 * 10^-7, or 0.00000105, or 0.000105%.

It's about 1 in 9,490,778.

Now, we all know LeBron is great. I wouldn't put it past Him to play a career that does span nine million games. It's likely, however, that He will choose to play a career of more precedented length. Most NBA stars these days retire between the ages of 36 and 40. I fully expect LeBron to play until the age of 65, but let's be conservative and say He retires after the 2022-2023 season, at the age of 38. Let's also say that he appears in about 80 games per season (I won't even count the playoffs). Counting the rest of this season, I give LeBron about 1366 games left to play. Note that this scenario puts LeBron somewhere in the vicinity of the NBA record for regular season games played in a career (Robert Parish's 1611). LeBron, however, got such an early start that He is already way ahead of the pace, so I'm comfortable with this projection. Kobe Bryant and others will probably get to Parish's record first anyway.

Anyway, supposing LeBron does play 1366 more games, with a 0.000105% chance of recording a quadruple-double in each one, what are the odds that He records a quadruple-double at least once in his career? To answer that one, we rely once more on the Binomial Probability Formula (and Microsoft Excel). I'll spare you the computation; it turns out that the probability is about 0.000144, or 0.0144%.

Basically, the odds are about 1 in 6,948 that we get to see LeBron record a quadruple-double at least once in His NBA career.

Those are some long odds. Let me be perfectly clear, though: I am not saying He won't do it! I simply want us all to understand just how unlikely a feat it is when He finally does get around to it. I have complete confidence in LeBron's ability to do anything, including but not limited to scoring 100 points in a game, negotiating peace in the Middle East, walking on water, and recording a quadruple-double. Fair enough?

Besides, I can think of a few reasons why my estimate could be a little bit conservative (or otherwise off). I mean, let's say it's the fourth quarter, the Cavs are up by 15, and LeBron needs just 2 steals in the final three minutes to make history. He may very well decide to abandon standard defense and start going for steals on every possession, even if it meant the other team scored a few easy points. I certainly wouldn't fault Him for doing so. In other words, the possibility that LeBron might change His style of play if he ever gets close could certainly improve His odds slightly.

I had to make a lot of assumptions for this estimate, too. LeBron's odds can very suddenly get better or worse if the Cavs start playing a different style of basketball some day. The odds also fluctuate from game to game based on the opposing team's pace factor, the quality of the opposing team's defense and ball handling ability, LeBron's minutes, and so on.

Now, before I wrap this up, one loyal friend of the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times--let's call him Scott--says I'm crazy for even bothering with this exercise, because LeBron is destined to record a quadruple-double. He says I should be worrying instead about the odds of LeBron recording a quintuple-double. Once again, I'll spare you the individual steps... are you ready for this?

The probability of LeBron getting a quintuple-double in any given game is about 1.58 * 10^-15, or 0.00000000000000158. The odds are about 1 in 634 trillion. The odds that we see that happen at least once over the next 1366 game are about 1 in 471 billion.

Not that He can't do that, too.

Get out your monocles; it's hockey time!

This is a momentous occasion for the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times. Up until now, our coverage has been exclusive to baseball, football and basketball. Well today I went to my first Barons game ever, and I've got Barons fever, baby! I can't tell you how excited I am to finally be able to offer some Barons coverage so our Cleveland sports mosaic can be complete. I can already tell you, from now on, the Barons Mania here at Mistake by the Lake will be nearly overwhelming!

What's that? Today's game was the last Cleveland Barons home game ever?! Oh, the tragedy!! Oh, the irony!!

Okay, so I only went because it was the last home game ever, and hey, better late than never.



My dad and I showed up about thirty minutes before game time. Alas, the best seats they had left were in the first row, near center ice. Walking around the concourse before the game, one thing was clear: all Barons merchandise had to go!



We ended up buying a giant flag on the cheap (for Alex's budding collection of defunct Cleveland sports team memorabilia). Then, for the player introductions, they brought the entire contingent of Barons season ticket holders out onto the ice. I kid you not, this is the entire group (not including the bemonocled shark-man with the giant head):



Someone sang "O Canada", although "The Star-Spangled Banner" was provided by a recording (decidedly not as good as the time my high school choir performed the national anthem at a Lumberjacks game, singing an arrangement by yours truly).



Then a bunch of stuff happened. To the best that I could tell, a round thing called a puck ("le puck") was hit back and forth by white guys with sticks ("les sticks"), and people with beards cheered loudly. Not thirty seconds into the first period, the Barons trailed, 1-0.

During the first intermission, they played a peewee game, which was my favorite part. The official looked vaguely familiar...



Speaking of Moondog, he brought his freaking drum to the Barons game. I was quite disappointed. Mercifully, Ronnie Duncan was nowhere to be heard.

Early in the second period, a fight broke out between Tomas Plihal of the Barons and Maxim Lapierre of the visiting Hamilton Bulldogs. I believe a number of other players were involved, but only those two got penalized for fighting:



Sticks and gloves and helmets were strewn all about the ice. It was a veritable graveyard of destruction and despair:



Several minutes later, another fight broke out between Glenn Olson of the Barons and Johnathan Aitken of the Bulldogs. This time, the two combatants, dukes up, circled each other for a good 15 seconds before going at it, while the officials took a coffee break. This was quite strange for me. In any other sport, if a player gets angry enough to want to inflict injury on an opponent, he charges at him with blind rage. This was more of an old-timey boxing match.





Incidentally, being the analytical, sabermetric type that I am, I knew that fighting in hockey, contrary to the popular conception, is neither essential nor beneficial to team success. This well-written article pretty convincingly dispels the notion that fighting makes your team play better because it shows you're tough, or any such nonsense.

Midway through the second period, a slew of fans in Indians attire entered the arena. The Indians' 3-0 victory over Minnesota had just finished. During the second intermission, while another peewee game was taking place, another fight broke out, this time involving one of the newly arrived Jacobs Field refugees:





In the third period, Hamilton pulled away with 2 goals to make it 4-2. The Barons scored with a minute to go in the game, but despite a mad frenzy at the end, couldn't tie it up. I snapped a picture of the last face-off (at a home game) of the Cleveland Barons era:



At the final buzzer, the Barons all skated onto the ice and raised their sticks in heartfelt thanks to the tens upon tens of Clevelanders who had supported them:



The scoreboard showed a short video of the highlights of the Barons' five seasons in Cleveland:



And with that, the Cleveland Barons era came to an end. Hockey will return to Cleveland in all likelihood, though, with the rumors that Dan Gilbert will buy himself an AHL affiliate in time for the 2007-2008 season. Some fans had even brought a giant banner to the game that read "In Gilbert we trust", although the Quickenazis forced them to tear it up, possibly because it was covering up a Cleveland Clinic advertisement.

I was going to attempt to perform some statistical analysis of the 2005-2006 Barons, which was going to be quite humorous because my hockey IQ is something like 0. I realized, however, that I did not feel like investing any time into such a venture, so you can just go ahead and have a good chuckle over the comedic content that would have appeared here.

One thing I did decide was, if and when hockey does return to Cleveland, I would like to make more of an effort to attend games. It's cheap, you can sit just about anywhere you like, and it really is fun. The sad part is that we have likely seen the last of the greatest shark with a monocle in sports history--no, in Earth history. Thanks for the memories, SlapShark.

Two weeks ago I posted a set of rosters made up only of players born in the Cleveland area (defined as anything within a 2-hour drive of downtown), which was itself an addendum to the original post, Alternate Universe Rosters. Today I got to thinking how nice it would be to be able to see all those players distributed across a map, arranged by city of origin. So once again I put my geographical skills to the test.

First, a map of the "Cleveland Area Born-N-Raised Basketball All-Stars" (click to enlarge):



Hoopsters tend to come from urban areas; we knew that already.

Next, the Cleveland area baseball squad (click to enlarge):



Living on the lake seems to have some weird baseball-inducing effect. 13 out of 18 guys on our roster grew up in a town directly along the shores of Lake Erie.

Finally, the main event--our team of local football stars (click to enlarge):



As the cradle of American football, Northeast Ohio has bred gridiron stars pretty much all over. Remember, these are just the guys who made the cut; we left out a ton of quality players.

Breaking them down by county, we get this tally:

         total basket. base.  foot.
Cuyahoga  28      6      9     13
Lorain     5      0      3      2
Stark      5      2      1      2
Summit     5      1      0      4
Erie       3      0      2      1
Mahoning   2      0      1      1
Richland   2      0      1      1
Geauga     1      0      1      0
Huron      1      0      0      1
Medina     1      0      1      0
Sandusky   1      0      0      1
Trumbull   1      1      0      0

You better get cracking, Lake County. I'm very disappointed in you.

You thought it would never end, but it has: it's the Jersey Numbers wrap-up extravaganza! I confess, this post is as much about getting all 101 names into one place (for handy reference and to corral massive numbers of future Google searches) as it is about bringing closure to what ended up being a 16-month project (it was supposed to last ten weeks). There are, of course, still plenty of actual issues I want to discuss. For one, a lot has changed in the last 16 months. I may now feel that certain jersey number honorees have been surpassed by their contemporary counterparts (I may even feel that I made some mistakes). I also want to take a look at which current Cleveland athletes have a legitimate chance to surpass their jersey number superiors in the near (or distant) future. Finally, I thought it might be interesting to rank some of the jersey numbers in terms of talent depth, or lack thereof.

But first, a giant list! Here are the best Cleveland athletes ever to have worn each of the jersey numbers, from 0 to 99, along with links to each of the ten installments, so you can re-read all the history, zany trivia, and justification for each selection:

The Jersey Numbers: 0 to 9

• #0: Jeff McInnis
• #00: Paul Dade
• #1: Bobby Avila
• #2: Tim Couch
• #3: Earl Averill
• #4: Ron Harper
• #5: Lou Boudreau
• #6: Joe Vosmik
• #7: Al Rosen
• #8: Albert Belle
• #9: Carlos Baerga

The Jersey Numbers: 10 to 19

• #10: Max Alvis
• #11: Toby Harrah
• #12: Willis Hudlin
• #13: Omar Vizquel
• #14: Larry Doby
• #15: Sandy Alomar, Jr.
• #16: Milt Plum
• #17: Brian Sipe
• #18: Mel Harder
• #19: Bob Feller

The Jersey Numbers: 20 to 29

• #20: Ross Fichtner
• #21: Bob Lemon
• #22: Larry Nance
• #23: LeBron James
• #24: Manny Ramirez
• #25: Mark Price
• #26: Ray Renfro
• #27: Thom Darden
• #28: Bert Blyleven
• #29: Hanford Dixon

The Jersey Numbers: 30 to 39

• #30: Bill Willis
• #31: Frank Minnifield
• #32: Jim Brown
• #33: Luis Tiant
• #34: Greg Pruitt
• #35: Galen Fiss
• #36: Gaylord Perry
• #37: Dennis Eckersley
• #38: Eric Plunk
• #39: Gary Bell

The Jersey Numbers: 40 to 49

• #40: Erich Barnes
• #41: Charles Nagy
• #42: Paul Warfield
• #43: Brad Daugherty
• #44: Leroy Kelly
• #45: Paul Assenmacher
• #46: Lou Groza
• #47: Jesse Orosco
• #48: Sam McDowell
• #49: Tom Candiotti

The Jersey Numbers: 50 to 59

• #50: Vince Costello
• #51: Eddie Johnson
• #52: Frank Gatski
• #53: Paul Shuey
• #54: Tom DeLeone
• #55: Orel Hershiser
• #56: Dante Lavelli
• #57: Clay Matthews
• #58: Mac Speedie
• #59: Horace Gillom

The Jersey Numbers: 60 to 69

• #60: Otto Graham
• #61: Mike Baab
• #62: Cliff Lewis
• #63: Cody Risien
• #64: Jim Ray Smith
• #65: John DeMarie
• #66: Gene Hickerson
• #67: Sid Williams
• #68: Robert E. Jackson
• #69: Jim Kanicki

The Jersey Numbers: 70 to 79

• #70: Don Colo
• #71: Walter Johnson
• #72: Jerry Sherk
• #73: Doug Dieken
• #74: Mike McCormack
• #75: Pio Sagapolutele
• #76: Lou Groza
• #77: Dick Schafrath
• #78: Carl Hairston
• #79: Bob Gain

The Jersey Numbers: 80 to 89

• #80: Len Ford
• #81: Jack Gregory
• #82: Ozzie Newsome
• #83: Johnny Brewer
• #84: Paul Wiggin
• #85: Kevin Johnson
• #86: Gary Collins
• #87: Andre Davis
• #88: Darrel Brewster
• #89: Milt Morin

The Jersey Numbers: 90 to 99

• #90: Rob Burnett
• #91: Sam Clancy
• #92: Michael Dean Perry
• #93: Stalin Colinet
• #94: Gerard Warren
• #95: Jamir Miller
• #96: Reggie Camp
• #97: Ryan Kuehl
• #98: Anthony Pleasant
• #99: Orpheus Roye

So there you have it. 64 Browns, 31 Indians, and 6 Cavaliers. Only 1 currently playing for a Cleveland team (guess who) and another 19 who played for Cleveland within the last 10 years. Of course, there was also the recent April Fool's installment, The Jersey Numbers: 100 to 109, in case you missed it.

Now, in looking back over my selections, there are just two that I would change if I were starting over today:

• #11: Zydrunas Ilgauskas over Toby Harrah. I don't know what the hell I was thinking. Even 16 months ago, Zydrunas had contributed so much more for the Cavaliers than Toby Harrah, with his 30.3 WARP, ever did for the Indians. I owe Zydrunas, the Ilgauskas family, the citizens of Cleveland, the people of Lithuania, and the population of Earth a sincere apology. I am so sorry.
• #2: Jhonny Peralta over Tim Couch. This one was in fact legit when I first came to it, as Jhonny Peralta had yet even to wear #2 for the first time. I knew then, however, that it wouldn't take much for someone, anyone, to surpass Tim Couch. Mission accomplished, with a major hole in the Cleveland jersey number continuum now filled.

After that, there are a fair number of current Cleveland athletes who have a good-to-existent chance of someday taking over at their respective numbers. In very loosely descending order of probability, they are:

• #41: Victor Martinez over Charles Nagy. I know Nagy was beloved, but he was still overrated, and, barring some unforeseen incident, Victor Martinez is on his way to being the best catcher in Indians history.
• #37: Jake Westbrook over Dennis Eckersley. Eckersley only had time to rack up 19.1 WARP while an Indian; Jake already has 17.2. He should pass him beyond a shadow of a doubt this season.
• #17: Braylon Edwards over Brian Sipe. This one requires more time to develop, but is still a realistic possibility. Anderson Varejão has a fraction of a prayer, too.
• #9: Charlie Frye over Carlos Baerga. Baerga, like Nagy, was overrated. Charlie doesn't have to become a star to overtake him, just have a long career.
• #90: Drew Gooden over Rob Burnett. Another season or so and I think the battle for #90 could be tied. The only thing keeping this one from being a near certainty is the constant and maddening possibility that Drew will be traded.
• #51: Chaun Thompson over Eddie Johnson. Johnson wasn't that great. It's not that hard to envision Chaun, at the very least, equaling Johnson's career value.
• #52: C.C. Sabathia over Frank Gatski. Sure, C.C.'s probably not going to Hall of Fame, like Gatski, but Gatski only wore #52 for his last 5 seasons.
• #48: Travis Hafner over Sam McDowell. McDowell was extremely underrated, but Hafner, given time, could rank among the greatest hitters in Indians history. It's an uphill battle, but possible.
• #24: Grady Sizemore over Manny Ramirez. Same deal--an uphill battle, but possible. The range of possible career paths for Sizemore is still pretty wide.
• #33: Daylon McCutcheon over Luis Tiant. Another player whose only shot rests on the possibility of a long career.
• #56: Fernando Cabrera over Dante Lavelli. It's only possible because Lavelli only wore #56 for six of his eleven seasons. Fernando would have to stay with the Indians for a long, long time.
• #4: Phil Dawson over Ron Harper. Are there any two positions in pro sports that are harder to compare than placekicker and... well, placekicker and anything. I'd have to give this one more thought, but it's definitely a possibility.
• #28: Leigh Bodden over Bert Blyleven. Okay, so now I'm dreaming, but if Leigh Bodden has, say, five or six more years like the one he just had, look out!
• #55: Fausto Carmona over Orel Hershiser. This one depends on Fausto keeping #55. He has yet to stick in the majors for good, so who knows what his jersey number will be, but if he does keep #55 and remain an Indian, he will almost definitely overtake Hershiser.

Meanwhile, I know you're curious to find out which are the best and worst jersey numbers, talent-wise, in Cleveland history. It's open for debate, but I would rank the top five thusly:

1. #25: Mark Price, Jim Thome, and Mike Garcia. Possibly the greatest Cavalier (pre-LeBron), plus possibly the greatest Indians position player? That's quite a combination.
2. #19: Bob Feller, Bernie Kosar, and Lenny Wilkens. Possibly the greatest Indian of all time, plus the second-best quarterback in Browns history.
3. #32: Jim Brown, Lin Houston, and Tyrone Hill. Jim Brown and Jose Jimenez might still have made this list (okay, probably not), but Lin Houston and Tyrone Hill were really good, too.
4. #64: Jim Ray Smith, Abe Gibron, Joe DeLamielleure, and "Turkey" Joe Jones. The only one that goes four deep with stars, including three of the Browns' best offensive linemen.
5. #76: Lou Groza and Marion Motley. After the Price/Thome debate, this one may have been the toughest to decide.

I had a lot of trouble actually ranking those. I could have put them in just about any order, along with about three others. I'd love to know what everyone thinks.

Here, now, are the five worst jersey numbers in Cleveland history, for those of you who could use a laugh:

1. #67: Sid Williams, Chuck Hutchison, and Melvin Fowler. Do not be tricked by the fact that there are three guys listed under this one; they have a total of, like, 30 games played.
2. #00: Paul Dade and Rick White. But only because I made a controversial and much-maligned decision not to include Otto Orf.
3. #75: Pio Sagapolutele and Bill Contz. Sagapolutele would definitely have been a Mistake by the Lake favorite.
4. #93: Stalin Colinet, Michael Myers, and Jerry Ball. At least they weren't Communists.
5. #0: Jeff McInnis and Junior Ortiz. Hey, at least we were once fooled into thinking Jeff McInnis might be decent.

Think about how easy it would be for a player, just about anyone--say, Alan Henderson, or Scott Sauerbeck--to just wear #67 for a whole season and instantly become the greatest man ever to wear that number in Cleveland history. Yet no one does. This troubles me.

Well, that's about all I have to say on the topic of jersey numbers. It's been fun, and I thank you all for bearing with me as I explored this trivial obsession of mine.

Anyone got a suggestion for my next giant project?

This afternoon's game, that is. Consider this my 2006 baseball preview, even though it's basically just an angry rant.

Have I ever told you? I hate--hate, hate, hate, hate, hate--the White Sox. The reasons for this are too numerous to list, but they include what happened between the White Sox and Indians last season, and, just as prominently, the fact that the White Sox now get credit from pretty much every mainstream media source for doing things that they either don't do, or that have nothing whatsoever to do with the success that they have had. This drives me insane.

Last season I felt like a broken record, constantly saying how much luck the White Sox were getting (and they were!). The discussion was usually about how the White Sox' record didn't reflect their performance. There should also have been a discussion about how their performance, which was good--not as good as the Indians, but good--didn't reflect their talent. That is, a number of Chicago players had seasons that were way above any reasonable expectation, and certainly above their PECOTA weighted mean projections. I'm referring now to just about the entire pitching staff, Jermaine Dye, Joe Crede... even Paul Konerko.

Which brings me to my real point. The White Sox may truly have improved their bottom line by adding Javier Vazquez and Jim Thome for 2006. But this does not mean they will improve on last year's record, or even last year's Pythagorean record. Baseball Prospectus, using PECOTA projections and whatnot, forecasts the 2006 White Sox as an 82-80 team, fourth in the AL Central. Their offense was horrible to begin with and it's still horrible. The pitching is good but not that good.

The Indians, on the other hand, may have subtracted from their bottom line this offseason by replacing Millwood with Byrd (this is debatable, given the age of the offensive core and other factors). But their bottom line was already up higher than Chicago's, or Minnesota's, or anyone else's for that matter. As I told the guys on "Sports Bloggers Live" last week, the Indians may not have improved but they didn't have to. They are the clear, hands-down favorites to take the AL Central in 2006. That is not a prediction, because I know, as you do, that weird, fluky things like the '05 White Sox happen all the time.

I hope, dear reader, that you don't buy this notion that the White Sox are the best team in the division, or that when they do win, it has anything to do with "Ozzieball" or "Smartball" or Scott Podsednik or manufacturing runs or clubhouse chemistry or the amount of dirt on their uniforms. Frickin' White Sox.

With that said, this year I will try not to belabor the point about record vs. performance as much as I did last year. Having the White Sox return to their normal selves will make it a lot easier. Enjoy the season, everybody, and if you're lucky enough to have tickets for Friday's game, I'll see you there. Go Tribe!

First of all, many thanks to everyone for the (mostly) positive feedback for the second annual installment of the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times April Fools Day craziness. Personally the high point came as loyal reader Anonymous fell for the joke and attacked Corey and me, claiming "Your agenda here is rather pathetic, beyond sarcasm." As like last year, I've archived a copy of this year's antics so you can still see the full effect.

T-Minus 20 hours!

You're missing out! This article was part of our April Fools Day 2006 spectacular. For the full effect, check the archived copy of the home page.

If you talk to most fans, it's a foregone conclusion that the Cavs are going to make the playoffs this season. But most fans are reactionary bandwagon jumpers who fail to see the big picture. For the 8th straight year, the team is not going to make the playoffs and here are the biggest reasons why:

• The Schedule. A factor often overlooked when predicting the distribution of playoff spots is scheduling. The Cavaliers have yet to play Miami, Charlotte, Philly, New York, New Jersey, New Orleans, Detroit, New York again, Washington, Boston, and finally Atlanta. All these teams are looking to gun down the upstart Cavs. I am not so sure the team is up to the challenge. This definitely is one of the hardest remaining schedules in the NBA--and a likely impediment to Cleveland reaching the playoffs for the first time since 1998. At best I see the Cavaliers wining one, maybe two of these games.
  
  
• Everyone Else. Looking at the standings, right now Washington, Milwaukee, Indiana, Philadelphia, Chicago, Boston, and Orlando are the teams in the rear-view mirror and looking to teach the Cavs a thing or two about making the playoffs. All of these teams have more playoff experience (see my comments below) than us and know how to get it done down the stretch. I haven't checked all of their schedules, but it's hard to imagine that theirs could be any more difficult than the Cavaliers'. These teams are simply not going to be stopped.
  
  
• Precedent. In 2004, when Jim Paxson swung a trade for new starting point guard Jeff McInnis, the team suddenly improved to playoff levels, yet an untimely injury by McInnis left the Cavs lifeless down the stretch and on the outside looking in come playoff time. On February 23, 2005, the Cavaliers were 31-21--the first time the team had been ten games over .500 since 1925 or something. But as you probably remember, the team promptly imploded. Jiri Welsch turned out not to be the savior we all expected, and the team once again missed out on "Let's Get It Started" by one freakin' game. Now we've seen two seasons of demonstrated choking, which is more than enough of a track record to predict future performance. The Cavaliers simply have a mental block on winning. It's like how Rick Ankiel forgot how to pitch, or how the Simpsons stopped being funny.
  
  
• Lack of Playoff Experience. To make a long story short, nobody on the team knows the right way to play: LeBron isn't clutch, Drew Gooden doesn't hustle and can't keep his head in the game, and you can't rely on Ilgauskas down the stretch because he's always in foul trouble. The only player on the roster with playoff experience is Eric Snow, and that simply isn't enough. These kids haven't learned what it takes to win yet.

I don't mean to be completely negative because the Cavaliers obviously have some things going for them, namely having LeBron James. Not to mention the recently acquired Flip Murray, who has been outstanding. At a time when the team desperately needed a second scorer to take shots at the ends of games, Danny Ferry shrewdly made his move. Murray is also an active defender and a great hustler.

But the evidence is right there in front of us and it's simply too great: the Cavs will be watching Round 1 of the 2006 playoffs from home. Luckily, with a decent offseason and some appropriate roster upheaval, they should be in a position to possibly secure a #7 or #8 in 2007. Time will tell.

You're missing out! This article was part of our April Fools Day 2006 spectacular. For the full effect, check the archived copy of the home page.

Here we are at Part 11 in my ongoing investigation into the greatest Cleveland athletes ever to wear each of the jersey numbers. We've had some truly great athletes so far, but unfortunately, as we get into the higher end of the spectrum, the players become a little more obscure. Anyway, on to the honorees!

#100 - Adriano Sacapuntas

Indians, '62-'63

Though in two seasons with the Indians he only received 12 plate appearances, Adriano Sacapuntas went on to enjoy a long career as the star center fielder of the San Pedro Albañiles of the Paraguayan League. Sacapuntas was the first and is still the only Paraguayan baseball player to make it to the major leagues. In Cleveland, his path to a starting spot was blocked by Ty Cline, Vic Davalillo, Willie Tasby, Willie Kirkland and Don Dillard, among a host of others, so after a season and a half of riding the pine the Indians traded Sacapuntas to the Senators for cash. He never appeared in another big league ballgame.

#101 - Leon "Candy Bar" Jefferson

Cavaliers, '73

Though he never scored a point in the NBA, Candy Bar Jefferson was a major fan favorite in Cleveland, not only for his appetizing nickname and his decision to wear #101 (in honor of the number of keys on a standard typewriter keyboard), but for his role as Coach Bill Fitch's designated inbounds pass breaker-upper (a function of Candy Bar's freakishly long arms). You probably remember the fateful play on which Jefferson's promising career was cut short, as Rockets guard Jimmy Walker's inbounds pass struck Candy Bar in the eye, permanently damaging his vision. To this day, we are left to wonder how many championships the Cavs would have won had Jefferson remained in the fold.

#102 - Biscuits McGarnagall

Naps/Indians, '07-'20

Biscuits McGarnagall began his long and storied career with the Indians (then the Naps) as the left-handed hitting platoon partner of second baseman Nap Lajoie. After Lajoie was purchased by the Philadelphia A's in 1915, McGarnagall found himself the starting second baseman for a brief period before Bill Wambsganss took over for good. In 1920, his final season, McGarnagall didn't play much, but the Indians finally won the World Series for the first time in franchise history. It was during the championship celebration that McGarnagall announced his retirement, and player-manager Tris Speaker uttered his famous quote, "This one's for Biscuits."

#103 - John Todeslied

Browns, '46-'49

Though current NFL regulations require jersey numbers in the 100's to be reserved for members of the officiating crew, players in the old AAFC--of which the Browns were a member prior to 1950--were allowed to wear these numbers on their uniforms. John Todeslied was a key contributor to the Cleveland squad that won the AAFC championship in every year of its existence. On offense, he played halfback and tackle, while on defense, he played end, middle guard, and cornerback. He also returned kicks and covered about half of the punting responsibilities. Alas, when the Browns made the transition to the NFL in 1950, Coach Paul Brown cut Todeslied, citing a lack of versatility.

#104 - Abe Kleinschmidt

Cavaliers, '53-'57

No one today really remembers the Cavs of the 50's, and for good reason: they never once made the playoffs. In fact, only one player from those old Cavs rosters had much talent, and that was Abe Kleinschmidt, "the Brooklyn Beanpole". Kleinschmidt led the Cavs in scoring and rebounding every year of his career, which isn't saying much, I realize, but it's all I have to go on. Though he was forced into early retirement by weak knees, he later worked in the Cavs' front office and was key in assembling the legendary 1964 squad that only missed the playoffs by two games.

#105 - Sébastien Leperdant

Barons, '77-'78

When I began this whole Jersey Numbers series, I had no idea I would be delving into the rich history of Cleveland ice hockey to find honorees. The truth is, though, that no Indian, Brown or Cavalier has ever donned #105, oddly enough, and while the Cleveland Barons were not very good during the two seasons they were an NHL team, they had a couple of noteworthy players, one of whom was Sébastien Leperdant, a defenseman. Now, I don't know very much about hockey or hockey statistics, so I kind of have to rely on the opinions of others here. One almanac I found called Leperdant "very adequate" and said he had excellent fight-picking ability. That's good enough for me.

#106 - Skip Chamberlain

Browns, '47

This one was kind of a toss-up between Skip Chamberlain, a messenger guard who appeared in six games for the Browns in 1947, and Dwight Onderzee, a safety who appeared in seven games for the Browns starting in 1946. Interestingly, the two men had a rather public dispute over the rights to wear #106 during training camp in the summer of '47. In the end, Chamberlain had to pay Onderzee $20,000--then something like twelve years' salary--to get him to relinquish the prized jersey number. This leads me to believe that Chamberlain was, at the very least, the more high profile player, so it stands to reason he was the better player. That's why I'm going with him.

#107 - Stan Lavatrici

Indians, '69, '71

Though he spent all of 1970 in the minor leagues working on supposed mechanical flaws, reliever Stan Lavatrici actually pitched pretty well for the Tribe in both 1969 and 1971 before going on to greater renown as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates. His ERA+ of 106 in '69 and 102 in '71 made him the fourth-best reliever on the team, both years. Lavatrici was known for his eccentric rituals during games, as he would often bring talismans, snacks, or reading materials with him to the mound. The reading material was especially odd considering he never learned how to read.

#108 - Albert Belle

Indians, '89-'96

Having already been named by me as the greatest #8 in Cleveland sports history, Albert Belle joins Lou Groza (#46 and #76) as one of two athletes so far to have been so honored at two different jersey numbers. You certainly remember Albert in his heyday as #8; what you may not recall is that, as a scrawny rookie in 1989, he opted for #108 because #8 was taken by DH/catcher Mark Salas. That season, Belle hit .225/.269/.394 in 234 plate appearances--not great, and certainly not up to his lofty career standards, but more than good enough to make him the greatest #108 in Cleveland history.

#109 - Richie Summerfield

Cavaliers, '85-'86

Coincidentally, the only man ever to wear #109 for a Cleveland team, Richie Summerfield was nowhere close to being a decent NBA player. How he managed to stay on the Cavs' roster for 27 whole games is a mystery to me. In 1985, his PER of -10.8 made him the worst Cavalier to date. In 1986, he appeared in only 2 games before Coach George Karl released him, but still managed a PER of -17.0, lowering his career rating to an unprecedented -11.3, to accompany a career Player Win Percentage of .001. I almost feel ashamed to dole out this honor to such a horrible player, but he was a jersey number pioneer of sorts, so I guess I should give him some credit.

You're missing out! This article was part of our April Fools Day 2006 spectacular. For the full effect, check the archived copy of the home page.

We here at the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times are nothing if not obsessed with statistics. In seemingly every post, Corey and I try to include some numbers to back up our arguments. But they're always someone else's statistics. That era is over. I am proud to introduce the first-ever Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times statistic: Runs Accounted For. In baseball, the most essential aspect of the game is winning and losing. But the only way to accumulate wins is to score runs and prevent the other team from scoring. Therefore RAF attempts to quantify the ability of each player at accomplishing those goals.

It's quite simple. Firstly, we measure the amount of offensive output, which is easy. There are two widely available statistics that perfectly describe the number of runs a player has contributed: runs and RBI. So the first equation we have for offense is: R+RBI. However, when a player hits a solo home run he not only notches himself a run but also an RBI, even though only one run scores. So let's adjust the equation to account for this phenomenon--a home run now only counts once: R+RBI-HR.

We further improve equation with the addition of another factor, batting average. A player's batting average is an almost perfect measure of his batting ability. The statistics of runs and RBI are merely dependent on the batting average. If you don't understand, try this example: If Grady Sizemore hits .375 but, because Ben Broussard and Aaron Boone bat before him, no one is ever on base, he'll never accumulate the RBI he rightly deserves. An analogous example can be drawn for runs scored as well, but it would be redundant to state. So, to adjust the equation: BA*(R+RBI-HR). I had to multiply BA such that it would be on the same scale as the other numbers.

Now we need a way to quantify a player's ability to run the bases and move runners along. As we all know, the best way to get into scoring position is to just steal a base. But what if you're at the plate, you can't just steal first base! But you can help move the runners on the merry way by simply putting the ball in play. Striking out is the only guaranteed way to make sure no one scores. A groundout may seem like a bad outcome, but it ain't if it moves a man from second to third. So we need to adjust the formula by giving credit for stolen bases but subtracting for strikeouts: (BA*(R+RBI-HR))^(SB-K)

This may seem peachy, but so far we've ignored almost half of a position player's worth: his fielding! So to account for this facet of the game, let's incorporate fielding percentage, the most accurate representation of a player's skills in the field, to our equation: ((BA*(R+RBI-HR))^(SB-K))*FP

All in all, I'd say we have a pretty nifty way to measure a batter (and fielder's) contribution to his team. Let's take a look at the Indians leaders in Runs Accounted For in 2005:

R.Vazquez   8.000
J.Dubois    0.679
R.Ludwick   0.001
J.Bard      0.000
J.Liefer    2.486 * 10-6
A.Cora      1.501 * 10-7
J.Gerut     3.791 * 10-11
J.Hernandez 6.887 * 10-65
C.Crisp     1.249 * 10-107
R.Belliard  7.311 * 10-111
A.Boone     1.846 * 10-117
V.Martinez  3.377 * 10-126
B.Broussard 5.016 * 10-139
C.Blake     8.451 * 10-159
G.Sizemore  8.670 * 10-187
J.Peralta   2.445 * 10-205
T.Hafner    3.048 * 10-211

This list should be a shocker to most of you; I know I was surprised. First of all, kudos to Mark Shapiro and the rest of the front office for flipping Alex Cora and his pathetic .0000001501 RAF into Ramon Vazquez and his team-leading RAF of 8. Beyond that, there aren't many compliments I can pay to the General Manager. Seven of the top nine performers in our lineup last year (Ludwick, Bard, Liefer, Cora, Gerut, Hernandez, and Crisp) have been jettisoned in favor of young, unproven minor leaguers. The two young stars locked into long-term contracts this off-season, Peralta and Sizemore, now suddenly look to be gigantic, overrated busts, having put together two of the three worst Runs Accounted For totals on the team. With deadweight Travis Hafner pulling the entire lineup down, we can only hope for more dangerous encounters with Mark Buehrle. Or, maybe Eric Wedge will wise up and give playing time to the real heroes of the Tribe like Jason Dubois and Vazquez.

Meanwhile, look for constant RAF updates throughout the 2006 season right here on Mistake by the Lake. This is very exciting for us, as we will now be able to appreciate baseball in a whole new light.