Must Be That Cleveland Air
by Corey
You may have heard some discussion this season about the Cavaliers' home court advantage. Through the current season's first 26 games (ie: prior to last night's contest in Atlanta), LeBron and company had amassed a home record of 12-3 and a road record of 3-8. That put their home winning percentage at .800 and their road winning percentage at .273, meaning they had a home/road winning percentage differential of .527--the second-highest such mark in the NBA this season (and the highest such mark in franchise history). For comparison, the league average differential for the '06-'07 season so far is .211.
Briefly, a word about home court advantage in the NBA. It has been true for some time that NBA teams win a higher percentage of their home games than MLB, NFL or NHL teams do. Frankly, I am at a loss to explain this one (especially considering the fact that outdoor sports are much more easily affected by things like weather, park dimensions, and so on), though some research has been done on the topic.
Another point I would like to make clear is that "home court advantage" is not necessarily an advantage at all. It could just as easily be referred to as "road court disadvantage". We often think of home court advantage as a good thing, but it does not in any way correlate to overall success. Simply put, home/road splits are neither "good" nor "bad" (though they may have an effect on things like team shop sales, attendance, etc.).
But back to the Cavs. Their unusually large home court advantage is not new for the 2007 season. In fact it goes back a number of years. The excellent hoops website Courtside Times published an article about this a few years ago, in which it was revealed that the Cavaliers had the league's second-highest home court advantage during the years 2001-2005 (behind only Denver).
Naturally, this got me to wondering why the Cavs, of all teams, would have such a wide discrepancy between their home and road records. Did the trend begin with the opening of Gund Arena? Did it always exist?
So I crunched some numbers (no easy task, believe me), calculating each franchise's home/road winning percentage differential for every season since the Cavs were born. Here's a graph showing the Cavaliers' home court advantage compared to the NBA average over the years (click to enlarge):
From this we can see that the Cavs' abnormal home court advantage dates back to the lockout-shortened 1999 season at least. However, the team also had a rather wide differential between the years 1987 and 1995. Really, the only times the Cavs' home court advantage has dipped below the NBA average in recent years were the 1996 and 1998 seasons.
It's not surprising, then, to know that over the period 1987-2007, the Cavs rank 2nd in the NBA in home court advantage (the NBA average over this period is .238):
So what changed? I certainly don't think we're seeing a 21-year fluke. The phenomenon predates the construction of Gund Arena, though that doesn't necessarily mean the building isn't somehow contributing to this effect.
The Denver Nuggets, you may have noticed, have always been at the top of the NBA in home court advantage. Among the reasons that have been proposed for this are the thinner air in the Denver region, for which the Nuggets are supposedly better conditioned, and the fact that visiting teams have to endure a 1-hour bus ride to get from the Denver airport to the Nuggets' arena. These both seem like plausible explanations to me, yet neither one sheds any light on the Cavaliers' situation. The Cleveland area is no different from any other region of the Midwest in terms of atmosphere, weather, etc.--nor do teams visiting Cleveland have to endure any unusual travel arrangements.
Also, I have noticed a preponderance of Western Conference teams among the home court elite. This makes sense, as a lot of teams have to travel further than usual to get to places like Utah, Denver, Portland, Seattle, and Sacramento, and many east coast teams only visit these cities in the middle of exceedingly long west coast road trips. Obviously, the same does not apply for Cleveland, which makes the Cavs' home court advantage even more unlikely and even more puzzling.
So what then? Honestly, I would like to hear your theories, because I don't have any. I am loathe to buy into the notion that the Cleveland fans are somehow "more intense" or louder than those of other teams. I happen to think that Cleveland fans are awesome, but I don't think there's a fundamental difference between Cavs fans and, say, Bulls fans, Pistons fans, or Bucks fans. We all come from the same general types of cultural, ethnic, and sports-obsessed backgrounds.
It occurred to me that I might look at Pythagorean winning percentage differential, instead of just regular winning percentage differential, to see if there was any more specific information to be gleaned. If it were true, for example, that the Cavs won more games at home despite scoring/allowing about the same number of points, on average, then we might be able to draw some definite conclusions. Here's a graph showing the Cavs' home court Pythagorean winning percentage differential, compared to league average, over the seasons (2007 data not included; click to enlarge):
On this graph, it doesn't look like the Cavs have as great an advantage, but actually, they do comparatively better in terms of Pythagorean home court advantage than in terms of normal home court advantage. Over the years 1971-2006, the Cavs ranked 4th in the NBA in this statistic. They also ranked 4th over the years 1987-2006 (league average during that period was .263):
Briefly, a word about home court advantage in the NBA. It has been true for some time that NBA teams win a higher percentage of their home games than MLB, NFL or NHL teams do. Frankly, I am at a loss to explain this one (especially considering the fact that outdoor sports are much more easily affected by things like weather, park dimensions, and so on), though some research has been done on the topic.
Another point I would like to make clear is that "home court advantage" is not necessarily an advantage at all. It could just as easily be referred to as "road court disadvantage". We often think of home court advantage as a good thing, but it does not in any way correlate to overall success. Simply put, home/road splits are neither "good" nor "bad" (though they may have an effect on things like team shop sales, attendance, etc.).
But back to the Cavs. Their unusually large home court advantage is not new for the 2007 season. In fact it goes back a number of years. The excellent hoops website Courtside Times published an article about this a few years ago, in which it was revealed that the Cavaliers had the league's second-highest home court advantage during the years 2001-2005 (behind only Denver).
Naturally, this got me to wondering why the Cavs, of all teams, would have such a wide discrepancy between their home and road records. Did the trend begin with the opening of Gund Arena? Did it always exist?
So I crunched some numbers (no easy task, believe me), calculating each franchise's home/road winning percentage differential for every season since the Cavs were born. Here's a graph showing the Cavaliers' home court advantage compared to the NBA average over the years (click to enlarge):
From this we can see that the Cavs' abnormal home court advantage dates back to the lockout-shortened 1999 season at least. However, the team also had a rather wide differential between the years 1987 and 1995. Really, the only times the Cavs' home court advantage has dipped below the NBA average in recent years were the 1996 and 1998 seasons.
It's not surprising, then, to know that over the period 1987-2007, the Cavs rank 2nd in the NBA in home court advantage (the NBA average over this period is .238):
team home/road W% diff.Of course, prior to 1987, the Cavs' home court advantage fluctuated wildly, but showed no signs of being any better or worse than average. Thus, over the entire life of the Cavaliers franchise, they rank only 7th in the NBA in home court advantage.
Denver .320
Cleveland .308
Sacramento .301
Utah .288
Indiana .275
So what changed? I certainly don't think we're seeing a 21-year fluke. The phenomenon predates the construction of Gund Arena, though that doesn't necessarily mean the building isn't somehow contributing to this effect.
The Denver Nuggets, you may have noticed, have always been at the top of the NBA in home court advantage. Among the reasons that have been proposed for this are the thinner air in the Denver region, for which the Nuggets are supposedly better conditioned, and the fact that visiting teams have to endure a 1-hour bus ride to get from the Denver airport to the Nuggets' arena. These both seem like plausible explanations to me, yet neither one sheds any light on the Cavaliers' situation. The Cleveland area is no different from any other region of the Midwest in terms of atmosphere, weather, etc.--nor do teams visiting Cleveland have to endure any unusual travel arrangements.
Also, I have noticed a preponderance of Western Conference teams among the home court elite. This makes sense, as a lot of teams have to travel further than usual to get to places like Utah, Denver, Portland, Seattle, and Sacramento, and many east coast teams only visit these cities in the middle of exceedingly long west coast road trips. Obviously, the same does not apply for Cleveland, which makes the Cavs' home court advantage even more unlikely and even more puzzling.
So what then? Honestly, I would like to hear your theories, because I don't have any. I am loathe to buy into the notion that the Cleveland fans are somehow "more intense" or louder than those of other teams. I happen to think that Cleveland fans are awesome, but I don't think there's a fundamental difference between Cavs fans and, say, Bulls fans, Pistons fans, or Bucks fans. We all come from the same general types of cultural, ethnic, and sports-obsessed backgrounds.
It occurred to me that I might look at Pythagorean winning percentage differential, instead of just regular winning percentage differential, to see if there was any more specific information to be gleaned. If it were true, for example, that the Cavs won more games at home despite scoring/allowing about the same number of points, on average, then we might be able to draw some definite conclusions. Here's a graph showing the Cavs' home court Pythagorean winning percentage differential, compared to league average, over the seasons (2007 data not included; click to enlarge):
On this graph, it doesn't look like the Cavs have as great an advantage, but actually, they do comparatively better in terms of Pythagorean home court advantage than in terms of normal home court advantage. Over the years 1971-2006, the Cavs ranked 4th in the NBA in this statistic. They also ranked 4th over the years 1987-2006 (league average during that period was .263):
team home/road Pythag. W% diff.In conclusion, I can't really draw any conclusions. This is a topic that has fascinated me for some time now, yet I can't explain it. That the home court advantage is greater in basketball than in baseball, football, or hockey baffles me as it is. That the Cavaliers' home court advantage is greater than most other NBA teams' baffles me even more. Please, if anyone out there can shed any light on this mystery, let me know!
Denver .341
Utah .333
Sacramento .328
Cleveland .312
Indiana .284
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