First of all, let me apologize for the lack of content on our blog recently. It's been a busy two weeks for me, between moving into a new apartment and hosting an out-of-town guest. Alex, of course, has no excuse. Please direct any and all irate comments to him. (For those who have asked, we'll try to get some Cavs coverage up this week--finally!)

Now. Let's talk Browns. In his power rankings this week on FOX Sports, Aaron Schatz points out that the Browns currently have the highest differential between actual and weighted DVOA of any NFL team. Regular DVOA rates them 7.5% worse than average (19th in the NFL), while weighted DVOA, which considers recent events slightly more relevant than those in the distant past, rates the Browns only 5.8% worse than average (17th in the NFL, right behind teams like the Saints and Rams). As Aaron goes on to explain, this is because the Browns played their two worst games of the year (by DVOA) in Weeks 1 and 2.

Is this a reason for optimism? Perhaps. It may just be that we are examining these stats in the one week when they happened to peak suddenly, but it may also be that the Browns are a team on the rise, poised to shock the NFL in 2007 or sooner. Certainly, the defense has gotten better and better each week; the special teams are fabulous, and the offense... well, it still wasn't pretty last week, but it was better than what we've come to expect.

With that in mind, let us preview this epic battle with the Bengals. As always, the stats in this game preview are borrowed from this week's DVOA report on Football Outsiders. Click here for a detailed explanation of how DVOA works.

Browns offense vs. Bengals defense:

           CLE offense  CIN defense
total DVOA   -19.4%        10.4%
passing      -16.9%        12.3%
rushing      -22.6%         8.3%

The Browns offense now ranks 29th in the league by both regular and weighted DVOA. This is something of an accomplishment, as you know. In Week 11, Charlie Frye put up his best single-game DPAR total (4.0) since Week 4, and has now risen all the way to 36th in the NFL in quarterbacking DVOA! The running game is just about as bad as ever, but the passing game, now ranked 25th in the NFL, is beginning to look... let us say... on its way to being halfway decent someday.

It plays to the, uhh... "strength" of the Browns offense that the 27th-ranked Cincinnati defense struggles more mightily to stop the pass than to stop the run. And as if that weren't enough, the Bengals' biggest weakness is defending passes to tight ends (32.9% DVOA), in which they rank 30th in the NFL. Two things the Bengals defense does do well, however, are defend passes to #1 receivers (-7.2% DVOA, 9th in the NFL) and get interceptions (.103 per drive, also 9th in the NFL), so it may not be the best week for taking risks on long passes to Braylon Edwards. Slight advantage: Bengals

Bengals offense vs. Browns defense:

           CIN offense  CLE defense
total DVOA    15.3%        -5.8%
passing       24.9%       -13.2%
rushing        2.8%         3.7%

The ascendancy of Oshinowo's Eleven continues--they now rank 13th by DVOA, and 5th in pass defense DVOA. They are the best defense in the league at preventing passes to tight ends (-65.9% DVOA), 4th at preventing passes to #1 receivers (-14.0%), and 9th at preventing passes to #2 receivers (-13.1%). The Browns are also the 5th-best interception-grabbing team, as they average .110 picks per opponent drive.

The Bengals offense, by the way, is extremely strong in the passing game, so this will be a very interesting matchup indeed. Cincinnati ranks 3rd in overall offensive DVOA and 4th in passing DVOA. Carson Palmer ranks 4th in the league in passing DPAR, while Ocho Cinco Ochenta y Cinco ranks 3rd in the league in receiving DPAR thanks to a recent string of monster performances. One thing everyone is hoping to see is a rematch between Chad Johnson and the man who shut him down six ways to Sunday in 2005: Leigh Bodden. Recently, Chad admitted to the media that Bodden was one of the best corners he's ever faced. Alas, Leigh is still listed as questionable on the official injury report, but then, the way the Browns secondary has been performing in Leigh's absence, it may not matter that much. Slight advantage: Bengals

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns  Bengals
total DVOA               6.2%     1.8%
FG kicking               1.4      6.8
CLE kickoff vs. CIN KR   1.3     -9.0
CLE KR vs. CIN kickoff  12.3      6.9
CLE punt vs. CIN PR      2.6     -1.4
CLE PR vs. CIN punt      5.2      3.0

Each of the Browns special teams units took a tiny step back in Week 11... except for the kickoff return unit, which took a colossal leap forward, to rank 1st in the NFL. The Browns still rank 2nd in the NFL in special teams DVOA. The Bengals rank 10th, led by strong field goal kicking (2nd in the league) and kickoffs (6th in the league), but held back by weak return teams (29th in kickoff returns, 28th in punt returns). Advantage: Browns

The Bengals are the better team, to be sure, but the Browns are probably slightly better than their 3-7 record would suggest, and the Bengals' advantages on offense and defense are slight indeed. I would not be surprised if this turned out to be a close game. Enjoy it, Browns fans!