Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times

for the Cleveland sports fan

Monday, November 6, 2006

Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns: Week 9

by Corey

Let's talk about the Browns offense. They scored 25 points, a new season high! That's actually more points than an average NFL team scores! Good, eh?

Ah, but the 25 points were mostly achieved on field goals. That's not very efficient. Bad!

Ah, but that means the Browns mounted 7 whole scoring drives! That is very encouraging--good!

Ah, but San Diego's defense previously ranked last in the NFL in red zone DVOA. That means that, once you get into scoring range, it should generally be easier to score touchdowns on the Chargers. You shouldn't have to settle for field goals. That's bad.

Ah, but the Chargers, in spite of terrible red zone defense, play excellent defense overall. Coming into the game, they ranked 12th in the NFL in total defensive DVOA. Thus, the fact that the Browns got into scoring range at all--let alone 7 times--is quite impressive. That's good!

Ah, but they only averaged 27 yards per drive. Only twice did they mount a drive longer than 57 yards, and both of those were desperation drives at the end of a half. That's bad.

Ah, but you get your choice of topping! That's good!

Of course, the toppings contain Potassium Benzoate. That's bad.

My point is that every good thing you could say about the performance of the Browns offense yesterday--the points, the yards, the number of drives--is really not so impressive when you put things in perspective. The Browns actually led this freaking game at halftime, thanks to a spectacular performance by the defense (keep in mind that the Chargers had the 3rd-ranked offense coming into this game), some special teams action, and a few lucky breaks. But the performance of the offense was pretty awful.

My other point is this: if we look only at the big picture, we realize that the Chargers are in fact a very good team--possibly the best the Browns will face all year--so we should not surprised with the result of this contest. Nor should we rush to condemn Charlie Frye, Jeff Davidson and/or Romeo Crennel because of the Browns' performance in this game. It will be a few more weeks before we're ready to do that...

Play of the Week

Alex says: Following the two-minute warning in the first half, Philip Rivers hit Keenan McCardell for a really long pass and things weren't looking too good. But then, Brodney Pool reached in and smacked the ball from McCardell's arm. Thankfully, the Browns recovered the fumble, and on the following drive managed a field goal. This play might have represented a 10-point swing. Chances are good that San Diego would've gone on to score a touchdown. The defense was playing good, but I didn't trust them to keep that up for long. This kind of play is a nice microcosm for what the Browns needed to pull off the upset: extreme luck. They managed to walk that tight line--terrible offense, pretty good defense and special teams--and hold onto the lead for a surprisingly long time. In the end, though, the talent gap was too large and San Diego pulled away. The Browns were certainly very, very lucky this week, but it wasn't enough to overcome such a lame offense.

Corey says: Even though the play of the offense was terrible overall, I'm going with the one offensive play that was truly successful: Charlie Frye's 52-yard lob to Joe Jurevicius on the right sideline in the first quarter. Of course, the Browns followed this beautiful play up with a run up the middle for 2 yards, a run up the middle for no gain, and a sack... so it only led to a field goal. Even more frustrating was the fact that the Browns played the entire rest of the game extremely conservatively. I'm not saying it's easy to just draw up a 52-yard pass play, but if you try it more than once, you just might succeed more than once. Seeing as how the Browns' success rate on the supposedly "safe" plays (runs up the middle) is something like 1 percent, what do they have to lose by "gambling" on a huge play whose success rate is likely to be something closer to 20 or 30 percent?

Player of the Week

Alex says: Phil Dawson--all he does? Catch touchdow- kick field goals! For an unprecedented seventh time this season, Borg Phil Dawson suited up for the Cleveland Browns, and he delivered a career day. Phil showed both accuracy, going 6/6 on field goals, and power, booting kickoffs on average inside the 1-yard line. Speaking of power, on his second field goal of the afternoon, the ball was actually partially blocked by Derreck Robinson. It certainly must be frustrating as a Browns opponent to know that even if you block a Phil Dawson field goal, he'll still make it! Where did this power surge come from? Here are a few possibilities: (1) Dawson has been taking performance enhancing drugs. This is pretty far-fetched. The NFL has a rigorous drug testing program and Dawson would've been caught by now. (2) Dawson began a new training regimen this off-season. Again, pretty far-fetched. This is the kind of "bye week" story all of Cleveland would've heard ten times over by now, if true. (3) Dawson stopped taking anti-steroids. He used these drugs to weaken his kicking leg since he had an unfair advantage. Since quitting, Dawson has returned to his natural strength level, hence the incredible kicking power. I feel this is the most feasible explanation.

Corey says: ...or it's just the Borg nanotechnology. Anyway, my Player of the Week is, uhhh... I don't know, Kellen Winslow? I really hate to go with someone on the offense; it kind of belies my point about the offense playing poorly and the defense playing well. But Winslow caught 11 of 13 passes that were thrown his way, 6 of which were for first downs. Let it be noted, in a week when the media pumped up the "Winslow vs. Gates" rivalry, that Kellen did nearly everything that was asked of him, and in the end, put up better numbers than Gates, who caught 2 of the 5 balls that were thrown his way.

Quote of the Week

Alex says:
"You're not happy with six field goals, because you'd like touchdowns. This offense is still evolving." --Romeo Crennel
I think the offense played unconditionally crappy this week, but really, seven scoring drives sounds impressive. The problem is that the team only averaged 27 yards per drive. Given those two conditions, I'd expect the Browns to have great starting field position on the day--but that's not the case either. Overall, the Browns started out around their own 33-yard line for an average drive. These facts put together make me wonder how the Browns managed so many points at all. And once you throw in that the offense was on the verge of implosion at several points, with many near interceptions, one thing screams out to me: luck. I'm sorry to harp on this so much today, but oh boy were the Browns lucky to be in this game late in the second half.

Corey says:
"I think we showed the makings of a pretty solid football team today because we obviously did not play at our best through the 60 minutes." --Chargers head coach Marty Schottenheimer
Um, what?

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: When Dennis Northcutt fielded his first punt of the game at the Browns 9-yard line, I was saying, "Don't catch it! Don't catch it!" Shows what I know. Eighty-one yards later Northcutt had put the offense in a great position to punch it in, which of course they did not. With each passing season, Northcutt becomes less a factor on offense but more dangerous as a punt returner. I happily accept this tradeoff, especially since a healthy Joe Jurevicius essentially duplicates Northcutt's former role as "possession" receiver. Duplicates and more, I'd say. A problem lies in the fact that Northcutt's salary is way out of line with a normal return man's. In 2005, Dennis was the eighth-most expensive receiver against the cap in the league.

Corey says: With due respect to Josh Cribbs' 47-yard kickoff return and Phil Dawson's blocked-but-still-good field goal, Dennis Northcutt's 81-yard yard punt return was one of the best special teams plays of the year, let alone the game. Is it just me or does it seem like the Browns special teams have a real knack for pulling off extremely long returns (whether kickoff or punt) but not scoring touchdowns on them? Given the quality of the Browns' offense, that's not such a good pattern.

Mike Oliphant Memorial Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: He only made a brief appearance during the game, but freshly signed defensive back Mike Hawkins could be considered the obscurest of Obscure Browns. When researching an obscure Brown, I normally go about as far as looking up his middle name--who could ever forget Eric Lebron Westmoreland? But I was simply amazed by Hawkins' story. This will be a little lengthy, but here are a few selections from Mike's official team bio:
Not allowed to play football by his father (Micheal) during two years at Hillcrest High School in Dallas, he ultimately found himself homeless in the summer of 2000, when he lived in the city’s Martin Luther King Park for roughly six weeks. During that period of homelessness, he would bathe himself at a nearby McDonald’s restaurant and wash his clothes in the park’s swimming pool. Soon after, former neighbor Trina (Ganison) Roberts helped to get him off the streets by facilitating a move into the Addison, Texas, home of her brother, Eric Ganison, where the two, according to Hawkins, “supported me mentally and physically”. He began playing competitive football that fall at R.L. Turner High School in Carrollton, Texas. But when Eric Ganison’s family moved away following Hawkins’ junior year, he elected to move in with a high school teammate for his senior year rather than move with the Ganisons and received father-like support from his high school coach, Tim Beck... Spent one season (2002) at Oklahoma, however attempted to transfer early in 2003 in order to be closer to his mother, Noreen Taylor, and his newborn daughter after experiencing a personality conflict with a member of the OU coaching staff, but Oklahoma would not release him. Subsequently left school and worked odd jobs around the Dallas area including a Dallas-area Wendy’s and briefly at a Nissan dealership. Worked odd jobs until his next football opportunity presented itself, an open tryout with the Arena Football League’s Dallas Desperados late in 2003. Was one of two players signed by the Desperados from among the roughly 450 who tried out. Spent the entire 2004 season and the first part of the 2005 campaign as a member of the Desperados before leaving the AFL in March 2005 in order to ready himself for the NFL Draft, and was drafted in the fifth round by Green Bay.
I suppose there are many roads to the NFL. Here's to Mike, one of my new favorite Browns. I hope you stick with the team.

Corey says: For lack of a better candidate, I'm going with offensive lineman Fred Matua, #67, who was the seventh-round draft pick of the Lions this past offseason but has since signed with Cleveland. Fred is a relative of the Tuiasosopo clan--a family which includes onetime (or, in some cases, current) football players Titus, Navy, Mike, Manu, Marques, and Zach Tuiasosopo, to speak nothing of baseball prospect Matt Tuiasosopo. So, uh, way to have a good family, Fred!

Fashion Item of the Week

Alex says: Whenever the Chargers don their powder blue throwbacks, everyone goes crazy trying to compliment them in every way possible. I'm not criticizing the powder blues--I like them too--but let's not let the exception blind us from the rule. The Chargers' normal uniforms are very, very ugly. And the team should be punished for this. In the MLB, generally when one team wears a throwback uniform, their opponent follows suit. I spent Sunday evening trying to imagine if this could be possible with the Browns' newly anachronistic threads. What could the team do to "old" up their jerseys even more? Besides fix those damned socks, of course.

Corey says: Nothing says football quite like blood on the uniform. Well, in the second quarter yesterday, Kellen Winslow, soldier that he is, took blood on the uni to new heights, as his neck appeared to be leaking all over his jersey. I know the defense was told to go for the jugular, but that was going too far! Anyway, it made Kellen look real tough... and he didn't even change into a clean jersey at halftime.

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: In the second quarter, deep in his own territory, Charlie Frye rolls right and simply drops the ball, unprovoked. Fumble recoveries being random and whatnot, the Chargers happened to be lucky enough to scoop up the ball. And picking up the ball within ten yards of the end zone tends to lead to scoring. So, of course, after recovering the fumble, San Diego's Marques Harris had himself one of the easiest touchdowns you'll see this season. His reaction? Complete hysteric euphoria, capped off with a backflip. It was all very dignified. And then, upstaging himself, Harris jogged back to the sidelines and directly to an oxygen mask! First of all, he had just run six yards after picking up the ball, and he wasn't too tired to do a backflip. Let me repeat that. Six. Yards. But now Harris is so winded he needs some oxygen? What an idiot.

Corey says: My Idiots of the Week are the Browns training staff and any Chargers players that happened to be on the field when Leigh Bodden got injured (on like the very first play of the game, too...). Also, anyone who looked at, breathed on, walked by, or thought about Leigh Bodden in the past week. What is your problem, people? Without Leigh Bodden, it's just not Browns football! As citizens of Earth, it is our responsibility to see that Leigh remains healthy for all Browns games.

Number of the Week

Alex says: 11.67, or the Chargers' average yards per rush after they had taken the lead. The primary tenet of Martyball® is to pound with the run late in the game--run out the clock, if you will. And the Chargers certainly did that. On their final two real drives, both teams knew a healthy dose of handoffs was coming. On only nine carries, San Diego running backs gained 105 yards and two more touchdowns. The only reason I bring this up is to discuss the long touted correlation between a running back gaining 100+ yards and wins. The problem isn't that this isn't usually discussed by football analysts as a simple correlation, but rather a causation. Namely, "when X runs for 100 or more yards, his team wins Y% of the time". But, as the Football Outsiders have shown, teams don't win because of the rush, they rush because of the win. Just like today. The Chargers didn't rush late in the game because they had "established the run" earlier on. Instead they rushed because they were ahead--and Tomlinson's stats are all the better for it.

Corey says: -5.5, the total combined DPAR of Reuben Droughns and Jerome Harrison in the game yesterday--worst among any team's rushing corps in Week 9. Clearly, the problem is that we're not establishing the run... so let's rush some more! Hey it worked against the Jets! What's that, the Jets rank last in the NFL in run defense DVOA? La la la la, I can't hear you... la la la establishtherun la la!!!

Moral Standings

The Browns' season of dreams continues. The game was supposed to be a blowout, but the Browns led at halftime... that's like three moral victories right there! (Not that I would actually count them as three separate wins; I'm very careful to ensure the accuracy and fairness of the moral standings.) Elsewhere, the Bengals squeaked by the Ravens, as they would have won the game if not for an officiating blunder in the final minute. And although the Steelers lost to the Broncos yesterday, the game actually resulted in a rare moral tie. How this fascinating development affects the moral playoff picture down the road remains to be seen, of course.
            MW  ML  MT    pct
Cleveland 9 0 0 1.000
Cincinnati 4 4 0 .500
Pittsburgh 1 6 1 .188
Baltimore 0 9 0 .000
Next week: The team hits the road once more, this time for the Coca-Cola city, "Hot"-lanta, where the Browns haven't lost a single game since 1993! Join us, won't you, for a recap of the thrilling win--same place, same time!

Posted at 5:00 PM

8 Comments:

Anonymous The Dawg Pound said…
Very valid points. It's too bad the moral standings aren't the true ones though :(

I still have hope that the Browns will turn it around, hopefully before I retire (and I'm 22).

Love the page guys. If you have some extra space on your links page, give my site a shot! My name should be the link.

L8er!
Posted at November 6, 2006 8:57 PM  
Anonymous Your most loyal reader at Western Michigan University... Adam said…
If only I hadn't gotten rid of that monkey paw......
Posted at November 7, 2006 1:24 AM  
Anonymous John said…
Alex, do you know a great spot in nyc to watch the Browns go undefeated in moral victories this year?
Posted at November 7, 2006 5:03 PM  
Anonymous Of Toronto said…
what I wanna know is: who do we play in the Super Bowl for moral victory champions? there's a bucket of chili awaiting, two sets of competing colours, etc.
oh, and Charlie Frye on a stick!
Posted at November 7, 2006 6:14 PM  
Blogger Alex said…
John, definitely the best spot to watch every Browns game in New York is with the Browns Backers. The official meeting spot is Blondie's, a sports bar on the Upper East Side (2nd Ave. between 92nd and 93rd to be exact). You'll usually find me there, basking in the everlasting glow of yet another moral victory.
Posted at November 7, 2006 10:19 PM  
Anonymous John said…
alex, thanks! i'm moving to nyc this weekend and i need to get my fill of moral victories.
Posted at November 8, 2006 7:01 PM  
Blogger nyjet10231981 said…
First off those wins were pulled out of thier asses. They should of never beeat new york two sundays ago. I attended that game and all i heard was how great browns fans were. I think cleveland has the worst football fans on this planet. The browns will never have a winning season in the next ...
ummmm..... lets say never .SO lets get art back here and move them to canada

gang green
Posted at November 9, 2006 9:52 AM  
Blogger Corey said…
nyjet10231981's comment-posting DVOA debuts at an astounding -180.47%. Small sample size, though.
Posted at November 9, 2006 1:58 PM  

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