Week 2 is upon, and this time it counts! Let's get right to previewing this fine matchup...

Since it's still so early in the season, I'll do as I did last week and base the discussion around Football Outsiders' pre-Week 1 DVOA projections, which can be found here. I'm also going to list the Browns' and Bengals' actual VOA from Week 1 (no "D" because it's still too early to add opponent adjustments), but I severely caution you against putting stock in these numbers. We all know what folly can come from early-season rushes to judgment. Oh, and for an explanation of how DVOA works, see here. Et maintenant...

Browns offense vs. Bengals defense:

                    CLE offense  CIN defense
2006 projected DVOA   -12.2%         2.8%
Week 1 actual VOA     -35.0%       -29.7%

The Browns' offense will not be as bad over the rest of the season as it was in Week 1. This I can guarantee you. It was, however, projected to rank 26th in the NFL in offensive DVOA prior to the start of the season, so let's not get our hopes up too high. If we can take one positive from the game against New Orleans, it would have to be Charlie Frye's 3.7 points of rushing PAR. Granted, we're only talking about a fluke of small sample size, but it's fun to point out that Frye currently ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing PAR... and I don't just mean among quarterbacks:

                  rushing PAR
Tiki Barber, NYG      5.1
Brandon Jacobs, NYG   4.1
Charlie Frye, CLE     3.7
Ahman Green, GB       3.6
Steven Jackson, STL   3.4

The Bengals defense, meanwhile, had an amazing game against Kansas City in Week 1, but was previously projected to rank a surprisingly low 24th in overall defensive DVOA (this after finishing only 20th in defensive DVOA in 2005). Last season they struggled to defend passes to tight ends in particular (24.7% DVOA), which, based on what we saw from Kellen Winslow last Sunday, could be a good thing. That said, the Bengals' D deserves to outmatch the Browns' O. Advantage: Bengals

Bengals offense vs. Browns defense:

                    CIN offense  CLE defense
2006 projected DVOA    22.2%        -2.2%
Week 1 actual VOA      -1.9%        -4.2%

The Cincinnati offense is stellar, to put it mildly. They ranked 6th in the league in offensive DVOA in 2005 and projected to rank 5th before the current season started. That they didn't put up a great VOA last week shouldn't fool anyone. Carson Palmer had the second-highest quarterbacking DPAR in 2005 (108.3). Chad Johnson had the second-highest for a receiver (38.0) while T.J. Houshmandzadeh had the ninth-highest (29.8). Rudi Johnson had the fourth-highest DPAR for a running back (48.0), which isn't surprising, seeing as how the Bengal O-line finished 4th in the NFL in Adjusted Line Yards (4.51). The Browns have a strong defense, but I expect the Bengals to do their fair share of scoring this Sunday. Advantage: Bengals

Special teams matchups:

                      CLE s.t.     CIN s.t.
2006 projected DVOA     1.2%        -0.3%
Week 1 actual VOA       5.4%         8.1%

The Browns' special teams are pretty good, while the Bengals' are more or less league average. Both played quite well in Week 1. One specific matchup worth watching closely will be the Browns' punt return team (3rd in the NFL in '05) vs. the Bengals' punting unit (24th in the NFL in '05). I'm not making any direct predictions (anymore), but a Dennis Northcutt punt return for a touchdown is a real possibility, and one of the ways the Browns could keep themselves in this game. Advantage: Browns

The Bengals are the heavy favorites as of this writing, and they deserve to be. On top of that, there's a lot of negativity encircling the Browns right now because of their Week 1 performance. That's why I want to remind you that even in a severe mismatch, the underdog wins some of the time. We saw the inferior team prevail last weekend; why can't we see it again? Keep the faith, Browns fans. And I'll see you in Cincinnati (maybe)!