Are They Improved? The Bench
by Alex
When you write your introduction last, and the article is very long, you can afford not to have an introduction at all. But first allow me to remind you that this is the second part in a multi-volume set of "Are They Improved?" articles. The first explored the starting lineup. Sometime soon I'll delve into that elusive thing we call "miscellaneous" with a look at off-the-court matters and whatever else strikes my fancy.
[This post will use a good deal of advanced basketball statistics. If you have questions about what they mean, check out this good introductory glossary.]
[This post will use a good deal of advanced basketball statistics. If you have questions about what they mean, check out this good introductory glossary.]
- Throughout the 2005 regular season and playoffs, it was apparent that Eric Snow is a serious liability on offense. So, in response, during the off-season, the Cavaliers front office signed a replacement... well, they signed a backup... they must have at least drafted a point guard, right? Well, technically yes. But no one thinks second-rounder Daniel Gibson will make much of an impact this season.
With Gibson as a third-stringer, the bench options for point are Damon Jones and... Eddie Basden? Damon Jones certainly was bad last year, but he improved down the stretch and has his strengths: he's great at avoiding turnovers and can be very dangerous from behind the arc. In 2004, he was a very effective point guard for the Bucks, with a 42.1 Assist Rate and 9.1 Turnover Rate. Unfortunately though, Jones wasn't used much as a point guard last season and he's unlikely to have his role changed for this year.
It seems that the Cavaliers will use some point guard-by-committee to spell "Lake Effect" Snow, which could be effective with good players. I'm not convinced, though, of the point guarding abilities of Jones, Shannon Brown, and Larry Hughes in particular. This is a very clear weakness for the team as it stands right now. - When Larry Hughes gets injured, the Cavaliers will be well-prepared to replace him. Shannon Brown, by all reports, is very impressive and should produce immediately. The player I'm most anxious to see, however, is Damon Jones. Last season, Jones started ice cold and couldn't recover. Fortunately, last season is way out-of-line with the rest of his career. The popular refrain of "regression toward the mean" should hold true here. Jones's production should be somewhere between his disappointing 2006 and amazing 2005.
Jones and Brown deserve the minutes, because Sasha Pavlovic straight-up sucks. Thank LeBron he's still young, because players with a career PER of 8.3 and Player Winning Percentage of .196 normally don't stick in the NBA, let alone crack a rotation. With no certified "super sub," the Cavaliers have a bit of strength in numbers: if Shannon Brown isn't ready for the NBA, then the team can use Damon Jones. If Jones sucks again, the team can turn to Luke Jackson--although I wouldn't bank on his health. If someone spills some FLAVA23 in the locker room, the Cavaliers can get Ira Newble to clean it up as their new guard-janitor. - The Cavaliers could have Jeff Trepagnier and Sharon Reed as backup small forwards, and it wouldn't really matter. LeBron James will play at least 42 minutes every game and surely all of the important ones. If He were to get injured, any hopes the team had would immediately be dashed, regardless of the replacement. So, the ideal backup SF would someone who preferably knows how to zealously clap and cheer and will stay out of the way. Pavlovic fits the bill pretty well, although his enthusiasm on the bench could stand improvement.
- With Anderson Varejao and Donyell Marshall behind Drew Gooden, the Cavaliers have the best group of power forwards in the NBA. Much is made of Marshall's three-point shooting, but often overlooked is his impressive rebounding. Last year his Rebound Rate of 14.0 was good for 36th in the league--great for someone who supposedly camps behind the three-point line. Donyell's shooting accuracy dropped from a TS% of .591 in 2005 to .517 in 2006, and it's reasonable to expect him to recover some of that in 2007. Although Marshall will turn 33 next May and a serious drop in production due to age isn't out of the question in the near future.
Anderson Varejao has been great for the Cavs, and I love him. But he has a serious problem. If Anderson Varejao had played enough minutes to qualify last season, he would've placed 13th in the NBA in personal fouls per minute. For every 40 minutes on the court, Anderson committed approximately 6.2 fouls. Basically Anderson couldn't even have stayed on the court for 40 minutes--he'd foul out. Personally, I can live with Varejao's hacking, as long as he's on the bench. But the hyperactive player Cleveland fans know and love couldn't cut it as a starter without cutting down on some of that hyperactivity. Mark this down as another reason not to trade Drew Gooden. - Scot Pollard isn't truly the backup center. He'll share those duties with the aforementioned Marshall and Varejao--a rotation, if you will. But allow me to use this space to compliment the Cavaliers for signing Pollard. He is a supremely helpful player, in certain situations. A "platoon player" of sorts. Pollard is a great defender (99 career Defensive Rating, compared to a league average in that timespan of 104). He's also an excellent rebounder, with a career RbR of 15.5. Just don't pass him the ball on offense. Pollard's career offensive statistics are good, but have bottomed out in recent years. At the very least, Pollard is a huge upgrade over Alan Henderson.
With Pollard in tow, Mike Brown has a (nice) problem to solve: how to dole out minutes to five qualified candidates (Pollard, Marshall, Varejao, Gooden, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas) for two positions? Irrespective of position, I would give Gooden 30 minutes per game, Ilgauskas 25, Marshall 18, Varejao 18, and Pollard 5. These are just rough figures, but seem pretty reasonable. Nevertheless, in 2006, once Anderson was healthy, the Cavaliers were stacked in the frontcourt and now, with Pollard, are ridiculously stacked.

4 Comments:
The off-seasons seems so much shorter when you play two rounds in the playoffs.
You know why Jones' doesn't turn the ball over? The mule kick. Nobody wants a size 13 (?) Li-Ning all up in their grille - EEEee-orrr!
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