Measuring Runs Accounted For
by Alex
You're missing out! This article was part of our April Fools Day 2006 spectacular. For the full effect, check the archived copy of the home page.
We here at the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times are nothing if not obsessed with statistics. In seemingly every post, Corey and I try to include some numbers to back up our arguments. But they're always someone else's statistics. That era is over. I am proud to introduce the first-ever Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times statistic: Runs Accounted For. In baseball, the most essential aspect of the game is winning and losing. But the only way to accumulate wins is to score runs and prevent the other team from scoring. Therefore RAF attempts to quantify the ability of each player at accomplishing those goals.
It's quite simple. Firstly, we measure the amount of offensive output, which is easy. There are two widely available statistics that perfectly describe the number of runs a player has contributed: runs and RBI. So the first equation we have for offense is: R+RBI. However, when a player hits a solo home run he not only notches himself a run but also an RBI, even though only one run scores. So let's adjust the equation to account for this phenomenon--a home run now only counts once: R+RBI-HR.
We further improve equation with the addition of another factor, batting average. A player's batting average is an almost perfect measure of his batting ability. The statistics of runs and RBI are merely dependent on the batting average. If you don't understand, try this example: If Grady Sizemore hits .375 but, because Ben Broussard and Aaron Boone bat before him, no one is ever on base, he'll never accumulate the RBI he rightly deserves. An analogous example can be drawn for runs scored as well, but it would be redundant to state. So, to adjust the equation: BA*(R+RBI-HR). I had to multiply BA such that it would be on the same scale as the other numbers.
Now we need a way to quantify a player's ability to run the bases and move runners along. As we all know, the best way to get into scoring position is to just steal a base. But what if you're at the plate, you can't just steal first base! But you can help move the runners on the merry way by simply putting the ball in play. Striking out is the only guaranteed way to make sure no one scores. A groundout may seem like a bad outcome, but it ain't if it moves a man from second to third. So we need to adjust the formula by giving credit for stolen bases but subtracting for strikeouts: (BA*(R+RBI-HR))^(SB-K)
This may seem peachy, but so far we've ignored almost half of a position player's worth: his fielding! So to account for this facet of the game, let's incorporate fielding percentage, the most accurate representation of a player's skills in the field, to our equation: ((BA*(R+RBI-HR))^(SB-K))*FP
All in all, I'd say we have a pretty nifty way to measure a batter (and fielder's) contribution to his team. Let's take a look at the Indians leaders in Runs Accounted For in 2005:
Meanwhile, look for constant RAF updates throughout the 2006 season right here on Mistake by the Lake. This is very exciting for us, as we will now be able to appreciate baseball in a whole new light.
We here at the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times are nothing if not obsessed with statistics. In seemingly every post, Corey and I try to include some numbers to back up our arguments. But they're always someone else's statistics. That era is over. I am proud to introduce the first-ever Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times statistic: Runs Accounted For. In baseball, the most essential aspect of the game is winning and losing. But the only way to accumulate wins is to score runs and prevent the other team from scoring. Therefore RAF attempts to quantify the ability of each player at accomplishing those goals.
It's quite simple. Firstly, we measure the amount of offensive output, which is easy. There are two widely available statistics that perfectly describe the number of runs a player has contributed: runs and RBI. So the first equation we have for offense is: R+RBI. However, when a player hits a solo home run he not only notches himself a run but also an RBI, even though only one run scores. So let's adjust the equation to account for this phenomenon--a home run now only counts once: R+RBI-HR.
We further improve equation with the addition of another factor, batting average. A player's batting average is an almost perfect measure of his batting ability. The statistics of runs and RBI are merely dependent on the batting average. If you don't understand, try this example: If Grady Sizemore hits .375 but, because Ben Broussard and Aaron Boone bat before him, no one is ever on base, he'll never accumulate the RBI he rightly deserves. An analogous example can be drawn for runs scored as well, but it would be redundant to state. So, to adjust the equation: BA*(R+RBI-HR). I had to multiply BA such that it would be on the same scale as the other numbers.
Now we need a way to quantify a player's ability to run the bases and move runners along. As we all know, the best way to get into scoring position is to just steal a base. But what if you're at the plate, you can't just steal first base! But you can help move the runners on the merry way by simply putting the ball in play. Striking out is the only guaranteed way to make sure no one scores. A groundout may seem like a bad outcome, but it ain't if it moves a man from second to third. So we need to adjust the formula by giving credit for stolen bases but subtracting for strikeouts: (BA*(R+RBI-HR))^(SB-K)
This may seem peachy, but so far we've ignored almost half of a position player's worth: his fielding! So to account for this facet of the game, let's incorporate fielding percentage, the most accurate representation of a player's skills in the field, to our equation: ((BA*(R+RBI-HR))^(SB-K))*FP
All in all, I'd say we have a pretty nifty way to measure a batter (and fielder's) contribution to his team. Let's take a look at the Indians leaders in Runs Accounted For in 2005:
R.Vazquez 8.000This list should be a shocker to most of you; I know I was surprised. First of all, kudos to Mark Shapiro and the rest of the front office for flipping Alex Cora and his pathetic .0000001501 RAF into Ramon Vazquez and his team-leading RAF of 8. Beyond that, there aren't many compliments I can pay to the General Manager. Seven of the top nine performers in our lineup last year (Ludwick, Bard, Liefer, Cora, Gerut, Hernandez, and Crisp) have been jettisoned in favor of young, unproven minor leaguers. The two young stars locked into long-term contracts this off-season, Peralta and Sizemore, now suddenly look to be gigantic, overrated busts, having put together two of the three worst Runs Accounted For totals on the team. With deadweight Travis Hafner pulling the entire lineup down, we can only hope for more dangerous encounters with Mark Buehrle. Or, maybe Eric Wedge will wise up and give playing time to the real heroes of the Tribe like Jason Dubois and Vazquez.
J.Dubois 0.679
R.Ludwick 0.001
J.Bard 0.000
J.Liefer 2.486 * 10-6
A.Cora 1.501 * 10-7
J.Gerut 3.791 * 10-11
J.Hernandez 6.887 * 10-65
C.Crisp 1.249 * 10-107
R.Belliard 7.311 * 10-111
A.Boone 1.846 * 10-117
V.Martinez 3.377 * 10-126
B.Broussard 5.016 * 10-139
C.Blake 8.451 * 10-159
G.Sizemore 8.670 * 10-187
J.Peralta 2.445 * 10-205
T.Hafner 3.048 * 10-211
Meanwhile, look for constant RAF updates throughout the 2006 season right here on Mistake by the Lake. This is very exciting for us, as we will now be able to appreciate baseball in a whole new light.
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