I could wax poetic on the Cavaliers playoff drought and the magnificence of LeBron, but let's jump right into the extravaganzaing, shall we? I've broken this down first into each team's offense versus the other's defense, and further into evaluating each unit by way of the Four Factors. Don't forget, the factors are presented in descending order of importance.

Cavaliers offense vs. Wizards defense

• Shooting. The Cavaliers have been rather middling with their shooting efficiency (13th in the NBA, .492 eFG) this season. However, given Washington's poor shot defense (24th, .505 eFG), I'd say the Cavaliers have a marked advantage in this factor. It would seem that the Cavs shouldn't have much problems finding good shots.
• Turnovers. The Wizards greatest defensive strength lies in their ability to force turnovers. They were 2nd in the NBA, causing a turnover more once per six possessions. The Cavaliers were above league average at avoiding TOs, but not by much (12th in the NBA)--coughing up the ball on 15.6% of possessions. Mike Brown would do well to make sure LeBron runs the offense, since his miniscule TO-rate of 8.8% is second only to Damon Jones on the team.
• Offensive rebounding. It's no secret that the Cavaliers usually have the rebounding edge thanks to Z, Drew Gooden, and Anderson Varejao, but surprisingly their offensive rebounding percentage dropped to 28.4 by the end of the season, leaving them 10th in the league. Washington is a team that can be victimized on the defensive glass--they were 5th-worst in opponents OReb% (29.2). The Cavaliers big men should play a big role if the team is to win.
• Getting to the foul line. It's a little known secret, but Cleveland's greatest strength on offense has been it's ability to beat a path to the foul line. 7th in the NBA (.263 FT/FG) thanks to (in order of importance) Z, LeBron, Anderson, Gooden, and Hughes, the Cavaliers ought not to see a decrease in their foul shooting ways (barring wacky refereeing) since the Wizards defense was only 19th in the league (.257 FT/FG).

Cleveland has a real edge when on offense, as demonstrated by its superiority in three of the four factors. They might turn the ball over more than we'd like, but chances are the team will shoot a high percentage, pull down plenty of second chance rebounds, and draw plenty of fouls. The Cavaliers will likely score more than enough points to win. If they don't win, I'd bet it's their defense that'll let them down.

Cavaliers defense vs. Wizards offense

• Shooting. Well, the Cavs shot defense is exactly league average (15th, .490 eFG) and the Wizards kind of suck (21st, .485). Gilbert Arena, Brendan Haywood, and Etan Thomas are the only Wizards with effective field goal percentages above 50%. And frankly, only Arenas is much of a threat from the floor.
• Turnovers. LeBron may have been 15th in the NBA in steals, but don't expect many from the Cavaliers in this series. The team is third-worst in the NBA at forcing turnovers (14.8%) while the Wizards are 6th-best (15.2%). I don't foresee many fastbreak opportunities for the LeBrons.
• Offensive rebounding. This will be an interesting battle; it's a strength for both teams. The Cavaliers are 4th in the league (24.3%) while the Wiz are 6th at 29.5%. The Wizards offensive rebounding strength is surprising given their defensive rebounding weakness. I am not sure what to predict here, but I will definitely keep my eye on the Cavs rebounding on the defensive end.
• Getting to the foul line. Yet again, we see another clash of strengths. The Cavaliers are loath to commit shooting fouls (5th in the NBA, .226 FT/FG) while the Wizards get to the line even more than the Cavs do (4th, .285). Personally, I believe that the Wizards will see their foul shooting numbers fall in the series since even if they are really, really good at drawing fouls, they can't do so unless the Cavaliers actually foul them. And it seems that the Cavs don't do that very often.

Both Washington and Cleveland have a clear advantage in one factor, while the other two are a wash. Fortunately, the Cavaliers' advantage comes in the most important factor. According to these team statistics, if the Cavs defense can merely hold it's weight and allow the offense to do the heavy lifting, I think the team will be a great position to advance to the second round.

Starting lineups

There is a slight complication when it comes to evaluating playoff basketball: it truly is different than the regular season. Phenomena such as player's trying harder or anything like that are (if they exist), to say the least, impossible to quantify with the available statistics. One proven occurrence, however, is that coaches rely much, much more heavily on their starting lineups. Part of this is the extended 15-minute commercial breaks and 2-hour half times of playoff games and part is coaches not afraid of tiring out their players since there's nothing to lose. On that note, let's run down the starters for both teams, to see if either has a lead.

• Point guard: Eric Snow vs. Gilbert Arenas. Everybody knows what you get with Eric Snow, good defense, good passing, and not much shooting. Arenas is clearly the alpha male of the Wizards. He leads the team in PER and shoots enough for nearly two people. Even if Eric Snow was a shut-down artist, it's hard to imagine this match-up as one of strength for the Cavaliers.
• Shooting guard: Flip Murray vs. Jared Jeffries. We here at the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times are nothing if not forthcoming with our displeasure with the play of Flip "Ronald" Murray, and believe no further comments are necessary. Miraculously, Jeffries isn't much better for Washington. He has no real weakness in his game, but then again, he has no real strength either. Unless Murray comes through with some of his patented clutchness, I don't see either team have a distinct advantage here.
• Small forward: LeBron James vs. Caron Butler. Please.
• Power forward: Drew Gooden vs. Antawn Jamison. Both players have identical PERs, but through radically different means. Gooden is a rebound-and-putback machine, while Jamison works more with the sissy jump shot. Jamison doesn't collect many rebounds or draw many fouls, but is very efficient and doesn't turn it over. Both players are very skilled in different facets and it's hard to distinguish the better of the two.
• Center: Zydrunas Ilgauskas vs. Brendan Haywood. If my analysis has been correct so far, the Cavaliers should win the series based on Z's domination of Haywood. Haywood isn't a slouch, but he's nowhere near Z's all star levels. Basically, Haywood is talented, but just doesn't shoot enough to make a huge impact--Ilgauskas nearly doubles his usage rate. And, if all else fails, send Haywood to the line; he connects on less than 60%.

All in all, the Cavaliers are sittin' pretty for a win in the first round. Throw in a little home court advantage, and things look even better. I'm not sure how much playoff experience really matters (I'd love to see some data on it, if anyone knows), so I can't comment whether LeBron and company's inexperience will effect matters much. Personally, I'm inclined to say they won't, but crazier things have happened. Go Cavs!