Cuckoo For Coco Trade
by Corey
First, let me just say that I am very enthusiastic about the big trade. In the coming days, Alex is going to post something about the long-term effects of this swap, so for now, let me just discuss the immediate implications, which is what many Clevelanders are up in arms about, as I understand it.
Forget Marte for a moment. The Indians have essentially replaced Bard with Shoppach, Rhodes/Riske with Mota, and Crisp with Michaels. Let's look at each of those changes, using 2006 PECOTA weighted mean projections:
If Andy Marte contributes even a little bit this season (and he probably is ready to do so), then the 2006 Indians are improved by this trade. And I do mean just the 2006 Indians. I haven't even gotten to 2007 and beyond. That discussion is soon to come. Let me throw out one more set of 2006 PECOTA projections:
Forget Marte for a moment. The Indians have essentially replaced Bard with Shoppach, Rhodes/Riske with Mota, and Crisp with Michaels. Let's look at each of those changes, using 2006 PECOTA weighted mean projections:
age EqBA EqOBP EqSLG EqA VORPShoppach, two years younger than Bard, is already a better hitter and has a brighter future. And for what little it's worth, he will come cheaper. This is clearly an upgrade for the Indians.
Bard 28 .243 .314 .378 .233 1.0
Shoppach 26 .232 .311 .445 .250 7.7
age EqERA EqK9 EqBB9 EqHR9 VORPStatistically, Mota is probably inferior to either Rhodes or Riske, though PECOTA believes Rhodes to be a bigger injury risk, thus the smaller VORP. Of course, relievers are harder to predict than anyone, based on track record. This, plus the wealth of quality pitchers in the Indians' system (a number of whom will have to pitch innings that would have gone to either Riske or Rhodes), not to mention the fungible nature of bullpens in general, keep me from being concerned. The loss of a veteran reliever is as often a blessing as it is a curse.
Rhodes 36 4.35 7.3 2.9 0.9 6.6
Riske 29 4.01 6.6 2.7 1.1 11.3
Mota 32 4.62 6.7 3.3 1.0 7.6
age EqBA EqOBP EqSLG EqA VORPThis would be the swap that has Indians fans so upset. Crisp is a better player than Michaels in the long run, of course, but the difference--especially in the short term--is far slighter than most people think. For one, Coco was overrated to begin with, much of his value being tied up in his batting average. If anything, the rate stats above actually depict Michaels as the better player. PECOTA pegs him for about half of Coco's plate appearances, though, so Crisp has the higher VORP. Unfortunately, more at-bats may bring Michaels' rate stats down a little bit from his career norms, since he will be seeing more left-handed pitching than in the past. Still, the drop-off from Crisp to Michaels is likely to be minor.
Crisp 26 .299 .357 .470 .276 27.5
Michaels 30 .282 .374 .447 .279 16.4
If Andy Marte contributes even a little bit this season (and he probably is ready to do so), then the 2006 Indians are improved by this trade. And I do mean just the 2006 Indians. I haven't even gotten to 2007 and beyond. That discussion is soon to come. Let me throw out one more set of 2006 PECOTA projections:
age EqBA EqOBP EqSLG EqA VORPI know the starting third base job is Aaron Boone's to lose, and that Marte may very well start the season in Buffalo, but it would actually benefit the 2006 squad to start the kid over the veteran. Kvetch not, reactionary Indians fans. From where I sit, things are looking mighty good in Tribeville.
Boone 33 .260 .319 .431 .249 7.1
Marte 22 .259 .345 .476 .271 20.5
6 Comments:
Coco couldn't hit lefties, he had speed but didn't know how to use it, he was a poor baserunner also. It will be funny watching him leading off in Boston (low OBP) and playing every day in CF, here tasks he failed miserably at doing here.
As for Jason Michaels, he as a better career AVG, a way higher OBP, higher SLG and the all important, and higher OPS. So its probably going to be a slight, but not a serious dropoff
Our franchise is very weak at the 3B position. Behind Boone we have nobody. Also here are the following free agents at 3B for the 2006-07 offseason:
Edgardo Alfonzo
Aaron Boone (Mutual Option)
Lenny Harris
Tony Batista
Wes Helms
Joe Randa
David Bell
Vinny Castilla
Melvin Mora
Pedro Feliz
Not exactly names that strike fear into your heart.
This is an all around good trade and I can't wait to see Marte in a Tribe uniform.
The more you like this trade the more you have to like it. This is Shapiro continuing to attempt (it seems, successfully) to build a winner for the next 10 years, not the next 2. The way you get All-Star caliber players at the right price is to trade decent veterans for them and to deal with teams who have a need and are essentially trying to plug holes. Not too long ago, the Tribe was one of these teams (Lawton and Gutierrez were the straw that broke the camel's back).
For the Indians to have sustained success, from time to time Shapiro will have to trade fan favorites and established veterans for promising youngsters with upside. Marte is a surprisingly well-developed product and from what I have read and my own analysis of the numbers should at the very least by our starting man at the hot corner in '07. This trade may receive the kudos which are now garnered for the Bartolo Colon for Lee/Sizemore/Phillips deal. Don't forget, people were pissed about dumping Colon at the time as well, but that was probably the most important trade in the rebuilding process.
Also, its not like the Indians have a shortage of potentially great outfielders. They have Brad Snyder and Franklin Gutierrez in AA or AAA. Also, first round pick Trevor Crowe could be ready sooner than we think.
People tend to overlook Coco's weaknesses, which included his arm, his inability to hit lefties, his baserunning (he was so fast, he should have been swiping 20-30 bags a year minimum), his low OBS, and his difficulty playing small ball (putting the ball in play, going to the right side, bunting, etc.). He was a fan favorite, which often indicates an overrated player. I loved Coco, but I can admit that he was definitely overrated by fans. However, trading Crisp will help our team's success in the long run, and like the guys for MSBL said, possibly even in the short run.
I wish Coco all the best in Boston.
But may the HoSox never win another game.
Do you really (really?) think this makes us better for 2006? For the long term, perhaps, but that's a giant question mark.
Let's look at what we lost. First, Crisp. All right, the guy is never going to be Kenny Lofton. But he still hit .300 and had an OBP of .345 - as a full time player. He's young, he's cheap (for now) and from a marketing perspective, it's a huge loss. We all that every kid in Cleveland loves him, and I think it's dangerous to risk alienating some fans when you've worked so hard to bring them back. Ticket sales are up and rising, fans are just now starting to identify themselves with the players (because let's face it, how many people around did you hear say things like "I don't even know who these guys are anymore" from say, 2002 to halway through last year), and now you've gotten rid of one of your biggest draws.
From a risky move to a Riske move, well, no big loss here. Riske has always been a solid middle reliever, but the Indians have never felt comfortable using him in pressure spots since his disasterous audition for the closer's role in early 2004. He's always had a good fastball that surprises hitters, but I wouldn't feel comfortable putting him in a tight game after the 7th inning--therefore, he's not difficult to replace.
And Bard, well, aside from a few surprisingly big hits over the past few years (my favorite being a home run in Minnesota last year to help us win a big game on the road), he doesn't give you much offense. I believe he was under .200 in his very limited action, and I doubt he'll really improve much.
Now: Jason Michaels for Rhodes. Obviously a trade made for the short-term, most likely this year only. I find it very difficult to believe that Michaels, who is closing in on 30 and has never played in a full-time role, will be able to consistently match Coco's numbers over 162 games. One of the reasons the Indians traded Crisp is because he is so similar to Sizemore, and probably not as good. They want an outfielder with more power. Michaels won't be able to give that to you either.
I'm not so much worried about losing Rhodes, because he was non-existent last year during the stretch run and trailed off after hot-start. Although better than Riske, he's certainly replaceable. But like everyone else, I'm looking at Mota filling in for Howry, who was a big loss. Mota doesn't appear to be as good as Howry was, and there are injury concerns. Even if we end up receiving further compenstation because he goes down, do you really think it's going to be an impact player? Hardly.
Shoppach, I suspect, will be an upgrade in the backup catcher's position. I don't know much about him, but Bard was so bad, I don't see how you can lose here. But he's not exactly an intregral part of the deal, either.
That leaves Marte. I'm not that high on him. For every Jhonny Peralta, there are two or three guys like Brandon Phillips. And let's not forget that the Braves let this guy go--the Braves, who get to the playoffs time and time again by using their young talent from the minor leagues. I'll bet there was something about him they didn't like. I can understand wanting to shore up third base, because we know Boone isn't a long-term answer, but I don't see how a prospect that, now, two teams have given up, is any sure thing. It's a big gamble, and if it pays off, I'll be as thrilled as anyone. But he did only hit .275 in AAA last year--Peralta was tearing up the minor leagues at 22, the same age as Marte.
So I'm not really sure how this makes us better now, and I'm not really sure it will ever make us better.
All right guys, you've done it before--convince me! :)
marc
momentum-shirts.com
The Braves traded Marte because they were extremely desperate for an infielder after the loss of Furcal to the Dodgers. Just as Boston was extremely desperate for a CF.
Yes, Coco was a likeable guy with a cute name, but he was not part of the core of this team, comprised of CC, Lee, Haf, Vic, Grady, and JP. He was expendable and his average offensive numbers won't be hard to replace in an OF. Meanwhile, finding a stud at 3B isn't as easy.
Michaels has better offensive career averages than Coco. I wouldn't expect him to meet Coco's production but rather to come close to it.
Also, an interesting read.
http://www.j-mike.com/index.html
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