Having previewed each Browns game this season using Football Outsiders' DVOA and DPAR statistics, I thought it might be appropriate to look at how the team and various Browns players finished the year, DVOA-wise.

Loyal readers of this blog are probably familiar with these statistics already, but there are a few points I want to make clear, just in case. First, whereas DVOA represents a percentage above or below league average, DPAR represents a number of points above replacement level (a defined level of play approximating the talent available on the waiver wire). A DPAR of 4.5 means that over the given time period, your team scored 4.5 more points than it would have, had your role been filled by a replacement-level player. Thus, it's possible--in fact, quite common--to have a negative DVOA and a positive DPAR. Unlike DVOA, DPAR is heavily influenced by playing time. DVOA is good for measuring performance on a per-play basis while DPAR is good for measuring total bulk of contribution. Finally, while a positive DVOA is good for offense, it's bad for defense. A good defense will have a negative DVOA. Detailed explanations of these metrics can be found here.

Okay, let's do this. Here's a quick breakdown of the 2005 Browns offense:

               total   NFL rank
total DVOA     -13.8%     25
passing DVOA   -12.7%     22
rushing DVOA   -15.2%     26

It was an up-and-down year. Both the passing and rushing attacks looked good at times and bad at times. In the end, neither was anything special. I don't know what the numbers would look like if we removed the blowout loss to the Steelers; I do know that it had a huge influence. Ironically, the numbers above are similar to those of the 2004 Browns offense (-11.9% overall, -13.0% passing, -10.9% rushing). Chalk it up to a new coach and a new coordinator, I guess. Message to Maurice Carthon: you're on notice.

Let's look at some individual skill position players, since those are the only players for whom Football Outsiders is able to create individual stats. First, the passers (this chart does not include any rushing accomplishments):

                  DPAR       DVOA      passes
Trent Dilfer      14.9       -3.8%      358
Charlie Frye      -9.3      -25.0%      187

Yeesh. Charlie Frye looked so good after his first two starts! His DVOA and DPAR were pretty freaking good, as I recall. But he did nothing against the Raiders and he got creamed against Pittsburgh. He ended up the 38th-most productive passer in the NFL by DPAR, and also, coincidentally, the 38th-best by DVOA. That does not bode well for his future. Of course, we're talking about a very small sample size. Most starting quarterbacks throw more than 500 passes in a season. Hope is not lost for Charlie Frye. Trent Dilfer, meanwhile, performed slightly better than most of us would give him credit for. He ranked 34th in DPAR, 25th in DVOA, and wasn't far below league average.

Now, the rushers. This list ought to surprise you:

                  DPAR       DVOA      rushes
Charlie Frye       2.4       10.6%       12
Reuben Droughns    2.1      -13.2%      309
William Green     -0.6      -19.2%       20
Trent Dilfer      -3.6      -72.9%       11

Yes, Charlie Frye was the most effective rusher the Browns had in 2005, not only on a per-play basis, but in terms of aggregate production. Don't freak out, though. This does not mean Charlie Frye should be taking carries away from the running backs, because all of his carries came on blown passing downs (or were improvised). We should be alarmed about the pedestrian numbers for Droughns, however. To think that the Browns would have scored only 2.1 points fewer over the course of the entire season had a replacement-level back, running behind replacement-level blockers, gotten all 309 of Reuben's carries--it's shocking. Frankly, I believe NFL running backs to be about 95% interchangeable, so I mostly blame Droughns' blockers for these poor numbers. It's worth noting, too (though I can't say if it's necessarily bad or good) that Droughns received nearly 87% of the Browns' carries this year (even more if we take out quarterback runs). I wouldn't be surprised if that was the highest such percentage in the league.

Next, the receivers:

                  DPAR       DVOA    thrown to
Antonio Bryant    18.9        8.9%      123
Braylon Edwards   10.0       11.3%       59
Steve Heiden       5.2       -0.2%       60
Frisman Jackson    3.8       -1.2%       41
Reuben Droughns    3.4        1.6%       56
Aaron Shea         1.8       -1.2%       32
Terelle Smith     -0.6      -17.3%       16
Dennis Northcutt  -1.9      -18.5%       77

The Browns' best pass catcher on a per-play basis was Braylon Edwards. Antonio Bryant, however, was thrown the ball more than twice as many times, so he takes the DPAR crown. Dennis Northcutt had an abysmal season. He was, in fact, one of the worst receivers in the NFL this year. The Browns would have been better off throwing to a replacement-level receiver each of those 77 times. Most of the rest of the players on this list were somewhere around league average, which, frankly, is good, considering the circumstances.

As for the rest of the offense--the blockers--there's only so much statistical analysis we can undertake. In terms of pass protection, there are numbers we can use to evaluate the blockers as a group, but not individually. The offensive line ranked 26th in the NFL in Adjusted Sack Rate, for example, allowing a sack on about 8.0% of passing downs. In terms of run blocking, I think the team's poor rushing DVOA speaks for itself and reflects poorly on the offensive line. We can at least look at what type of success the Browns had rushing in different directions, however--using Football Outsiders' Adjusted Line Yards as a measuring stick:

                 ALY   NFL rank
overall         3.89      21
left end        3.05      29
left tackle     4.18      18
middle          3.84      24
right tackle    4.12      16
right end       4.14      14

Now, I'd be wary of drawing any conclusions from these data. For one, we're talking about very small samples sizes in all but the "middle" categories, since 61% of the Browns' carries by a running back went up the middle. Secondly, runs that went "left tackle" according to the official NFL play-by-play, for example, do not necessarily correspond to accomplishments by L.J. Shelton alone (or even at all). It's likely that many of those runs involved a tight end, the left guard, a fullback, or even a pulling center or right guard. Besides, the difference between the Browns' "left tackle" and "right tackle" numbers in the table above is so slight that we really can't draw any conclusions about whether players on either side of the line were any better than their counterparts. At the very least, it appears that the Browns had better run blocking at the tackle positions than they did at the center and guard positions.

And now the defense. First, here's a quick overall breakdown of the 2005 Browns defense:

                total  NFL rank
total DVOA       6.1%     24
passing DVOA     1.4%     21
rushing DVOA    10.1%     27

On the whole, the defense was stronger than the offense. It's evident, too, that the strength of the defense was defending the pass, while stopping the run remained a problem.

Let's begin with the front seven. On passing downs, they were clearly pretty ineffectual. The defensive line ranked 28th in the league in Adjusted Sack Rate (5.0%). And although the stat is no longer available on Football Outsiders' website, quite recently the Browns ranked dead last in the NFL in "Pass Rush", ie: DVOA on passing downs where no intended receiver was listed in the play-by-play. Meanwhile, on rushing downs, as we know, the front seven was nothing to write home about. Here's a breakdown of the Adjusted Line Yards, by direction, of Browns opponents:

                 ALY   NFL rank
overall         4.49      28
left end        3.80      13
left tackle     4.93      30
middle          4.66      31
right tackle    3.53       3
right end       4.88      27

Once again, I don't think we can necessarily draw conclusions about individual players from these data, but a few things are clear. First, the Browns could not plug up the middle of the field. This reflects badly on Jason Fisk and Ethan Kelley. Second, the difference between left tackle runs and right tackle runs in the table above is significant. This reflects quite well on Orpheus Roye, and quite poorly on Alvin McKinley and others. The linebackers would have had a lot to say about these two categories, however, given the nature of the 3-4 defense, and unfortunately I don't know which linebackers tended to line up on which side of the field. As for the outside runs, the Browns did better in stopping the left end runs than the right. This reflects well on, among others, Leigh Bodden. Is there anything that guy can't do?

Which brings us to the secondary. As I've said, the Browns' pass defense was stronger than its run defense, yet the pass rush provided by the front seven was horrible. That must mean the secondary was great, right? Here's how they finished the season in terms of covering different types of receivers:

                DVOA   NFL rank
vs. #1 WRs      -6.6%     11
vs. #2 WRs     -26.2%      4
vs. other WRs   70.3%     32
vs. TEs        -13.9%      8
vs. RBs          0.9%     22

Unfortunately, the Browns deployed their cornerbacks on a left/right basis, not on a #1/#2 receiver basis, so the numbers above don't correspond exactly to individual defenders. We can say, however, that the Browns' #1 and #2 cornerbacks, whether they were McCutcheon, Bodden or Baxter, did a stellar job. Responsibility for the other categories above is hard to assign, however; Chris Crocker, being the strong side safety, deserves at least some of the credit for defending passes to tight ends--which the Browns did quite well. Some of the blame for the horrible DVOA vs. "other" receivers has to go to the other corners, such as Michael Lehan and Ray Mickens. Beyond that, it's hard to dole out credit or blame.

Finally, I'd like to take a brief look at the special teams. Overall, the Browns had the 5th-best special teams in the NFL, with a DVOA of 4.4%. Here's a breakdown of the individual units, based on points above league average:

                points  NFL rank
FG/XP kicking     5.1      10
kickoffs          4.3      15
kickoff returns   8.8       3
punting           6.3      23
punt returns      0.2       5

It turns out that, while I spent all season criticizing the Browns' punt return team for putting up the fewest points of any special teams unit, I failed to note that the unit actually ranked quite high in a league-wide context. As it turned out, the Browns' two return teams were quite stellar, ranking 3rd and 5th in the NFL. Some of the credit for that should go to Josh Cribbs and Dennis Northcutt, respectively, but most of it should go to their blockers. As for the kicking teams, Phil Dawson actually had himself a pretty decent season despite kicking only short field goals. Kyle Richardson has room to improve, though certainly it was an upgrade over 2004. The injury to Ryan Pontbriand may have hurt the punting numbers a little bit, who knows.

Well that's all I've got in the way of statistical analysis. We may run a little light on the Browns coverage for a while, though of course there are plenty of other topics to discuss, praise LeBron. And of course the draft is only a few short months away! Later, Browns fans.