In Week 2 of the Charlie Frye Experience, Romeo Crennel sort of continued his plan to split time between the two quarterbacks. As you well know, Frye really capitalized on his opportunities during the game, going 0-for-1 with an interception. Lost in all the arguments about benching or starting Mr. Frye, though, are questions about the fate of fair Derek Anderson, the Browns' rookie 3rd-string QB from Oregon State. A case parallel to that of Charlie Frye can be made for Anderson: if Derek is indeed the backup quarterback of the future, why not give him backup quarterbacking experience right now?

The Browns are not contenders for a playoff spot now, so there is nothing to lose. Therefore, the team should rightly install Frye as starter and Anderson in the second-string. Would Trent Dilfer be any less able to impart his veteran wisdom and whatever else crap he does on the sidelines if he were the emergency QB? I didn't think so.

Meanwhile, there's something else that deserves a mention. When you tune into your weekly Browns game, you usually don't think of anything fishy going on off-the-field that could potentially affect the outcome of the game. Taking a dive, point shaving, and the like are rumors reserved for professional boxing, college basketball, and the movies. I can't remember the last time someone seriously leveled charges of trickery on the NFL. Well, friends, something sinister is definitely at play here. And its name is Corey Rubin.

Allow me to explain. Starting with the Browns' Week 5 game against the Chicago Bears, Corey introduced his weekly game previews, at the end of which, he adds a cheeky "if I were a gambling man..." followed by his prediction. Let's take a look at his record so far:

• Browns vs. Bears: chose the Bears, WRONG
• Browns at Ravens: chose the Browns, WRONG
• Browns vs. Lions: chose the Browns, WRONG
• Browns at Texans: chose the Browns, WRONG
• Browns vs. Titans: chose the Titans, WRONG
• Browns at Steelers: chose the Steelers, RIGHT
• Browns vs. Dolphins: chose the Dolphins, WRONG
• Browns at Vikings: chose the Browns, WRONG

The Steelers game remains the sole blemish on Corey's streak of ineptitude. I'd venture to guess that Corey has somehow put a medium-strength curse on the Browns; let's call it Corey's Curse. Having only average power, Corey's prognostication is more than enough to turn the tides in your average Browns-Lions or Browns-Titans affair. However, it can't make up for the sheer mismatch between Pittsburgh and the Brownies.

Corey says: Far be it for me to break into the intro that is rightly Alex's, but this witch hunt must end. First of all, my weekly picks are made solely based on which team had the superior DVOA at the time, so if there is a curse out there somewhere, I have not brought it to bear.

And lest you conclude there's something wrong with DVOA as a statistic, remember that it remains a better predictor of future success overall than any other statistic or any so-called prognosticator from any newspaper, website, cable network, or gambling organization. Check out this article for an example of what I mean.

Besides, if my picks are always going to be wrong, then let the Browns lose to the Vikings--it means they'll be winning their fair share soon!

And now your regular items.

Play of the Week

Alex says: Chris Crocker's interception in the second quarter. With the Browns' sole touchdown being all but meaningless and the Browns' other credited turnover coming with :00 left in the first half, this play stands head and shoulders above the rest. Crocker's acrobatic leap and subsequent snag looked like prime challenge flag material to me. But then again, we only saw a couple replays. In this week's preview Corey noted the Browns' success against opposing tight ends "thanks in large part to Chris Crocker". Well, this week, it appeared at first that the Corey Curse had struck again: Wiggins caught five balls for 67 yards. Some, however, would overlook the fact that in total, nine passes were directed Jermaine's way, including the one that Chris intercepted.

Corey says: I'll go with the offense's longest play from scrimmage: a 33-yard reception by Reuben Droughns late in the second quarter, on which most of the distance was traversed after the catch, thanks to a hole in the defense. So long as we're playing "pick on things Corey said in his game preview", allow me to point out my comments about the Vikings defense, specifically, their inability to defend passes to running backs and tight ends. I recommended the Browns try to get Heiden, Shea, and Droughns involved in the passing game. As it turned out, Heiden and Droughns alone accounted for almost half of the passing yardage; they caught 10 passes for 101 yards while the wide receiving corps caught 13 for 113.

Player of the Week

Alex says: I choose Vikings rookie left tackle Marcus Johnson. Not only was he regularly beaten by Kenard Lang and Orpheus Roye on their way into the backfield, but Johnson also managed to rack up an impressive four penalties in one game! All in all, he contributed -25 yards to the Browns' defensive gameplan (including a nullified touchdown)--amazing considering he's an offensive lineman.

Corey says: There really aren't any truly deserving candidates this week. I guess I'll go with Orpheus Roye, who had a sack and, if I recall, deflected a few passes. It isn't much, but Orpheus has been solid all season, so he deserves it. He's always been good at tipping passes (and the occasional field goal--he's a regular DeSagana Diop). Sure enough, at 6'4", he's the tallest defensive lineman on the team (other than "Big Ol'" Simon Fraser, who never plays). Of course, everyone else is either 6'2" or 6'3", so maybe Orpheus just has long arms.

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"It was close there for a little bit but then, the result of turnovers allowed them touchdowns, and our ineptness in defending those plays gave them scores." --Romeo Crennel

In sports, it's important to know how to summarize the game in such a way as to provide no valuable information whatsoever. Bonus points if you use made-up words like "ineptness".

Corey says:

"I wanted to try to give Frye... a series. Because Dilfer was limping a little bit, I thought we'd give him a series." --Crennel

And a series is exactly what he got. The shortest series in the history of the Cleveland Browns, sure, but it was a whole series! Was it not in the very same Metrodome that Juan Gonzalez put together a similar opus a few months ago?

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: Joshua "MTV" Cribbs had two great kickoff returns--one for 48 yards in the third and a 47-yarder in the fourth. Personally, I don't remember two distinct returns from Cribbs--they've melded into one in my mind. You could even say they mind-melded, Vulcan mind-melded. The 48-yarder resulted in a Phil Dawson FG while the 47 turned into a Trent Dilfer interception. So, I'll have to go with the former.

Corey says: With all due respect to Josh Cribbs and Phil Dawson (who has now punted four times in his career), Ryan Pontbriand made a tackle, his first of the season (I think), which is always cause for celebration around these parts. In Pontbriand's honor, I had some rice with dinner (because he went to Rice). Okay, so there just happened to be some rice at dinner. Good enough.

Stalin Colinet Memorial Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: My selection this week is WR/emergency backup QB Frisman Jackson. My brother and I disagree over the nature of being an "Obscure Brown". I say obscurity status is determined in the minds of average Browns fans. They may recognize the name of our dear Frisman, but he is set aside no special place in their hearts. Corey contends that the criteria lie with you, the noble readers of the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times. So I ask you, is Frisman worthy of being called "Obscure"? Leave your opinion in the comments if you like. As for Jackson's performance in the game, he caught all five passes headed his way, in a lovely bit of garbage time mastery--the likes of which we haven't seen since the Andre King era.

Corey says: I'm going with backup offensive tackle Nat Dorsey, #74, who began the season a member of the Minnesota Vikings before he was traded for Melvin Fowler. Clearly, whatever information Dorsey was able to provide the Browns about the Vikings' secret plans and playbooks was key in helping the Browns do all those wonderful things they did. Hey, at least my guy is obscure.

Fashion of the Week

Alex says: The home green #9 "JAMES" jersey, from LeBron's football-playing days at St. Vincent-St. Mary High School. Okay I realize this is barely Browns-related, but it's better than my second choice: a Drew Gooden. I think this is an incredibly cool and obscure jersey purchase to make, and I encourage anyone considering buying one of those stupid 3rd-alternate navy blues to instead buy one of these. Or maybe one of these.

Corey says: I'm going with another throwback, the #52 "GATSKI" in memory of Frank "Gunner" Gatski, the greatest center in Browns history, the greatest #52 in Cleveland history, and an enshrinee at the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Gatski passed away earlier this week at the age of 84.

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: Braylon Edwards, who, for the second consecutive week, dropped an easy catch, resulting in an interception. This kind of mistake is highly inexcusable from a wide receiver, especially when the ball is not even jarred loose by a hit from a tackler. Not to mention the fact that Braylon also only caught half of the passes Trent Dilfer threw him. Plus he had a stupid false start penalty on the snap following a stupid false start penalty by Antonio Bryant.

Corey says: Vikings defensive end Lance Johnstone, #51, for his heinous roughing of passer Trent Dilfer, about four seconds after an incompletion early in the fourth quarter. Sure, the penalty was called and the Browns picked up 15 yards, and sure, it's likely that Johnstone will be fined after league officials view the game film, but a cheap shot like that deserves to be punished by the harshest means possible: being named Idiot of the Week on the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times.

Number of the Week

Alex says: 47.4%, or the percentage of carries on which Reuben Droughns was "stuffed" for a gain of 2 or fewer yards. On none of these nine stuffs did Droughns gain a first down either. I think this reflects more on the run blocking of the Browns this week and Maurice Carthon's play selection than upon Reuben. Given a power running situation I still would want Droughns to have the ball in a heartbeat.

Corey says: 95.2%, or Phil Dawson's field goal percentage on the season. This is by far the best single season mark Phil's ever had. His next-best percentage was in 2001 (88.0%) and his career percentage is 83.7%. Caveats apply, though, as Phil has not yet attempted a single field goal longer than 44 yards in 2005 (he's never been one for distance), and kicking field goals always gets harder the later you get into the season (due to weather). This is why, despite one of the best percentages in the NFL, the Browns ranked only 15th in field goal kicking DPAR heading into yesterday's game.

Next week: You heard it here first: in one of the worst recorded blizzards in Northeast Ohio history, the Browns crush the ill-prepared, napoleonic Jacksonville Jaguars. We'll be here with another rip-roaring edition of "Born and Raised" and our own take on "the best statistical graphic ever drawn".

The last time these two teams met, four quarterbacks got into the game: Vinny Testaverde, Eric Zeier, Warren Moon, and Brad Johnson. Now, ten years later, it is quite likely that we'll see action from such luminaries as Trent Dilfer, Charlie Frye, and... yes, Brad Johnson. In the '95 game, Johnson went 9 of 11 for 72 yards with an interception. Let's hope the '05 Browns can hold him to about that.

As always, the stats in this preview come from Football Outsiders' DVOA reports (offense, defense, special teams). A detailed explanation of DVOA can be found here.

Browns offense vs. Vikings defense:

           CLE offense  MIN defense
total DVOA    -4.1%         1.3%
passing       -0.9%         3.0%
rushing       -8.0%        -0.7%

The Vikings defense is the strength of their team, but still nothing special (kinda like the Browns offense). While the pass defense actually ranks higher (16th in DVOA) than the run defense (19th), it has been the poorer unit. Minnesota struggles to defend passes to tight ends (37.9% DVOA) and running backs (7.4 DVOA), but does very well defending passes to #2 receivers (-40.4% DVOA). Whether this is a coincidence, a ringing endorsement of #2 cornerback Antoine Winfield, or a function of the Vikings' schedule so far, I don't know. At the very least, it's worth noting that #1 cornerback Fred Smoot is out with an injury this week, so there's really no predicting who will be covering whom. I will be paying close attention. Regardless, the Browns would do well to focus on the pass, especially if they can get Heiden, Shea, and Droughns involved. Slight advantage: Vikings

Vikings offense vs. Browns defense:

           MIN offense  CLE defense
total DVOA   -14.9%         7.0%
passing      -14.9%         4.2%
rushing      -14.8%         9.7%

The Vikings offense has been quite consistently crappy--just look at those numbers! To be fair, Brad Johnson's stats in his four games (10.1 DPAR, 16.7% DVOA) are considerably better than those of Daunte Culpepper in his six (1.2 DPAR, -12.1% DVOA), so we can probably expect a slightly better passing attack than the one depicted above. The running game, though, is deserving of its bad rating. Both Mewelde Moore (listed as probable this week with an ankle injury) and backup Michael Bennett have been uninspiring (-2.6% and -42.5% DVOA, respectively). The Browns defense, meanwhile, continues to enjoy some success in the secondary despite injury problems. They still rank #2 in the NFL in defending passes to tight ends (-32.3% DVOA), thanks in large part to Chris Crocker, while they now rank #3 in the NFL in defending passes to #2 receivers (an amazing -45.1% DVOA), thanks in large part to Leigh Bodden. A serious weakness, however, remains defending passes to "other" receivers, meaning not #1 or #2 in the depth chart (an atrocious 54.2% DVOA). I don't know who to blame for this, or even if this statistic has actual predictive value, but it's worth noting that "other receiver" Marcus Robinson has actually been the Vikings' best target this year. He ranks #13 in the NFL in DVOA among receivers. Slight advantage: Browns

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns  Vikings
total DVOA               1.8%     2.0%
FG kicking               2.1    -11.3
CLE kickoff vs. MIN KR   1.4      2.9
CLE KR vs. MIN kickoff   3.3     12.0
CLE punt vs. MIN PR     -1.1      1.2
CLE PR vs. MIN punt      0.5      2.2

The Browns special teams have very quietly remained quite pedestrian. The Vikings, though, have been up and down. They lead the NFL in DPAR on kickoffs but are dead last in field goal kicking. Their return units have been mediocre despite a much-publicized performance against the Giants a few weeks back. I would expect this battle to be about field position, without too many long returns. We can only hope that Paul Edinger misses a few field goal tries. Slight advantage: Vikings

Well, there you have it. I think this game ought to be close. The Vikings have a slight edge on defense and special teams, not to mention the home field, but the Browns have simply been a better team overall. The differences are slight, but if I were a gambling man, I'd reasonably take the Browns.

A few basketball notes...

Here are the top 10 in the NBA Pythagorean standings as of 11:18 PM EST on November 22nd (ie: including tonight's deconstruction of the Boston Celtics):

              W    L    pct
Cavaliers    8.9  2.1  .808
Spurs        8.2  2.8  .749
Pistons      6.7  2.3  .742
Mavericks    7.4  2.6  .736
Clippers     7.0  3.0  .697
Nuggets      7.9  4.1  .656
Timberwolves 5.8  3.2  .641
Wizards      6.3  3.7  .632
Warriors     7.1  4.9  .596
Heat         5.9  4.1  .586

In other news, I'm back in town, meaning I had my first chance to attend a game at The Arena Formerly Known as Gund. I have opinions (mostly negative) about all the changes at the arena for this season, including:

• Ronnie Duncan
• "The Diff"
• DJ Mick Boogie
• the new scoreboards
• the red seats

...but I'm going to hold off on commenting until Saturday (when Alex and I attend the game against Minnesota) so that my dear brother has an equal opportunity at first kvetch.

Go Cavs!

Sports Illustrated has an interesting article running marking the 10th year passing since Art Modell stabbed Cleveland in the back. The history it retells ought not to be anything new to sports fans, but contains Bill Belichick's first comments on the ordeal since 1995--which I find fascinating. The quotes from Modell are infuriatingly incompetent, but what else could you expect? I was a bit young at the time to fully grasp what was happening, but I vividly recall the anxiety and emotion coursing through the city.

I know that all of you likely share the sentiment, but I feel it needs to be said: Art Modell is undoubtedly among the worst human beings of the modern era, along with Adolf Hitler, Pol Pot, Carlos Boozer, and Joseph Stalin. He shall always be remembered for his legacy of lying, cheating, and a remarkably powerful foul odor accompanying him day and night. It is only fitting that "his" team, the Ravens, be stocked with murderers and cocaine dealers. When he decides to finally leave the Earth and return to his natural state as the Devil, the Earth will unquestionably become a better place.

Anyways, just read the article.

Whee, a shutout! This turned out to be an important game for so many reasons. This was the week Romeo Crennel decided to cut the ribbon on Phase II of the Crennel-era Browns. For one, we got to see Charlie Frye in a real-live game, which, as far as I'm concerned, was the surprise of the century. Charlie played pretty well--certainly, the interception wasn't his fault (it was Braylon's), and the improvising he did in the pocket is sure to get fans excited. Meanwhile Trent Dilfer is upset. If a quarterback controversy is to ensue from all this, I suppose we should take a side. My brother, I think, is very anti-QB controversy, and would prefer to see Dilfer starting the rest of the season. I'm ambivalent; I thought it was clever to mix in Frye in a situation where the other team wasn't gameplanning for him, so that he wouldn't have to deal with a package of "welcome to the NFL, meat" blitzes. At this time, I don't much care which QB gets the playing time, so long as Charlie Frye isn't thrown into a hopeless situation. Tread with caution, I say.

This was also "throw Braylon the damn ball" week. First, because Braylon suggested it, and then because Romeo made it happen. I guess complaining to the media is a good way to get what you want. In all seriousness, though, the guy was ready for a starting role, and I think he handled it well.

The performance of Reuben Droughns, on paper, looks like his best of the season. In reality, it was just the one long run, followed by a fairly average game. After the first possession, Droughns carried 29 times for 91 yards, for an average of 3.14 yards per carry, including 16 runs that were either stuffed or failed to convert a third down. Of course, the 75-yard run was one of the best I've ever seen, so I'm not complaining.

On top of all that, this was a break-out game for the defense, especially the secondary--especially Leigh Bodden, Daylon McCutcheon, and Chris Crocker, who is fast becoming another of my favorite players. In holding Miami passers to 67 yards on 9 completions, it was the secondary that really ensured the shutout. Which brings me to a question: where does this win rank among New Browns victories? Certainly, there have been more dramatic wins, such as a couple of Hailmary miracles, or a nail-biter against Atlanta to clinch a playoff spot, but if you read this blog, you know that a close win, while potentially more exciting, is never as indicative of team superiority as a blowout win--objectively, that is. With that in mind, I will now turn it over to Alex, as he presents you...

The Top 5 Games, Context-Independent, in New Browns History

5. Week 6, 2004 - Browns 34, Bengals 17: Corey and I covered this game in the sixth ever edition of "Born and Raised". What hurt the Browns performance most in this game was four very costly turnovers. In fact, all 17 of Cincinnati's points resulted from Browns misplays. If the team had simply held onto the ball, this game could have been #1. You may also remember this game for Andre Davis's record-breaking 99-yard touchdown reception.
4. Week 11, 2001 - Browns 18, Bengals 0: In the New Browns' very first shutout, rookie coach Butch Davis moved his team to 6-4, seemingly in position to make a push for the playoffs. It wasn't to be, as the Browns faded away down the stretch, going 1-5. Nevertheless, during this, their last huzzah, the team struggled offensively, but put up points thanks to 7 takeaways. The game almost wasn't a shutout, considering Neil Rackers' two missed field goals.
3. Week 5, 2003 - Browns 33, Steelers 13: In front of a national audience on Sunday night, Tim Couch led a crushing of Pittsburgh at disgusting Heinz Field. He accumulated a QB-rating of 111.3 and had a nifty 9-yard scramble for a touchdown. It was arguably his finest game as a professional. Plus, the Browns wore orange pants.
2. Week 11, 2005 - Browns 22, Dolphins 0: You should probably remember this game pretty well. Remember, it almost wasn't a shutout: Miami failed to convert two fourth downs in the redzone during the fourth quarter.
1. Week 11, 2003 - Browns 44, Cardinals 6: Of all the Browns games to see, this was it. Amazingly, Corey and I had the great pleasure to witness the smackdown of the utterly helpless Arizona Cardinals in like the 4th row on the 50-yard line. The Cardinals' defensive backs could do nothing but watch as Browns legends like Quincy Morgan and Kelly Holcomb hooked up for long touchdowns and other exciting football-type plays. Browns fans were also treated to a sneak preview of the Luke McCown-era as his cyborg-clone brother Josh replaced an injured Jeff Blake, throwing 4/11 for 31 yards and two interceptions.

Now, on to your regular items.

Play of the Week

Alex says: At the time I was nearly in shock. Of course--it's Reuben Droughns' 75-yard touchdown rush with 11 Dolphins strewn in his wake. (Corey notes: by my count 8 key blocks, by 6 different Browns, were needed. The blockers were Coleman, Tucker, Smith, Faine, Edwards, Heiden and Bryant.) Directly after the play, I jumped to the conclusion that it was the greatest run in New Browns history--but I think I was getting ahead of myself. Out of context, sure, but considering William Green's nail-in-the-coffin touchdown against the Falcons to send the Browns to the playoffs in 2002, I have to declare Droughns' play #2. Who could ever forget Jim Donovan going banoodles and his immortal line, "Run William, run!"

Corey says: I'll go with Matt Stewart's interception. It was awesome the way Stewart tracked the ball, making an over-the-shoulder catch running away from the line of scrimmage. But it was Andra Davis' thunderous body slam of Sage Rosenfels that forced the errant throw in the first place. Even though the Browns gave up an unfortunate number of rushing yards, which reflects negatively on the inside linebackers, Davis seemed to make a number of great plays in various situations yesterday. He is already playing at Pro Bowl-worthy levels, even though no one outside of Cleveland knows who he is.

Player of the Week

Alex says: Unlike Play of the Week, there aren't many stand-out candidates for Player of the Week. Given that, I'll award this to first-time recipient Braylon Edwards, mostly on the weight of his highlight reel of receptions. Let's say the interception he caused cancels out one of his long receptions; still, that at least leaves Braylon's astounding tipped-to-himself reception.

Corey says: Hey, I think there are a number of good choices for Player of the Week. This week, I've got to go with someone on the defense, such as--you guessed it--Mistake by the Lake legend Leigh Bodden! Ever since Gary Baxter went down with an injury, Leigh has been a tornado, literally. Dolphins QBs only tested him 4 times, managing 2 completions, for 7 yards. That's what we call "shutdown".

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"I will not comment on it anymore. I mean what I say. I will get up and leave. If you want to talk about the game, ask me about the game." --Trent Dilfer on being swapped with Charlie Frye

It's certainly understandable that Dilfer would be upset at being replaced by a rookie during a game in which his team was leading. On one hand, Trent definitely didn't warrant being taken out. At the time he was 5-7 for 89 yards. On the other hand, Dilfer has routinely made poor throws and hasn't been overly impressive since Week 2 against Green Bay. Charlie Frye played better than you could ask for a rookie in his first experience, but I still believe it's better to rest him at this point. Football Outsiders touched on the issue of benching rookie QBs, and came to a conclusion that it's generally a good idea to let them learn off-the-field at first. Plus, after experiencing the Holcomb-Couch disaster, I think fans would want to avoid a quarterback controversy. It's never any fun.

Corey says:

"I was just trying to make a play, you know. I broke outside the pocket and spun around. Luckily I didn't hit the ground." --Charlie Frye on his long scramble and completion to Braylon Edwards

If Charlie is going to break out plays from the Madden '92 playbook, might I suggest a few others?

• Drop straight back about 40 yards, drawing every defender toward you on a wild goose chase; heave a bomb all the way to the endzone for an easy touchdown
• Call your play early and go mess up the other team's huddle by ramming into people
• Have Barry Sanders run straight down the sideline for an automatic touchdown

Anyone have any others? I mean, any of these will work, if the Browns would just give them a try.

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: Dennis Northcutt could have had his 28th long punt return called back by penalty if only the Browns had been flagged for a penalty. In fact, he could've had a touchdown if only he juked out Miami punter Donnie Jones. Instead, he hightailed it to the sideline and settled for a 37-yard return. Personally, I think the strategy of running right at the punter would work best. He doesn't want to get hit very hard, plus his reflexes are going to be worse. So, the returner could just make a move at the very last moment and still elude the punter.

Corey says: With respect to Sean Jones' acrobatic downing of a punt on the 2-yard line, I'm going with Josh Cribbs' exclamatory tackle of returner Wes Welker on a kickoff return in the first quarter. It was the second time Cribbs tackled Welker in the game, and he nailed him--I mean nailed him--on the 16-yard line by upending him and then slamming him into the ground. That'll get the blood pumping.

Orlando Bobo Memorial Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: This week, our Obscure Brown of the Week category receives a slight makeover, as we honor the Obscure Browns of yesteryear who paved the way for today's favorites. Each week, the category will be renamed in a different player's honor. At any rate, my selection is Jason Gomillion Wright--who would seem to be this season's Eric Lebron Westmoreland. Jason had three ordinary carries near the end of the game, giving Droughns a spell. Plus he handed the ball to Dennis Northcutt on a reverse. With Droughns having definitively proved himself to be the best running back on the roster, I hope the front office can find room to keep a guy like Jason around instead of an under-achiever like William Green or injury prone Lee Suggs.

Corey says: How about backup guard Dave Yovanovits, #68, who came very close to starting his first game in the NFL thanks to ailments to Joe Andruzzi and Cosey Coleman. Alas, it was not to be, as Coleman toughed it out, so Yovanovits will have to hang in there. In the useless trivia department, I can report from personal observation that, at least earlier this season, Yovanovits sported a mohawk.

Fashion of the Week

Alex says: Whatever the heck Charlie Brown was wearing on his arms. It appears to be a skin-tight thingie ripped at the elbows to allow for full range of motion. It could also be a tight undershirt with gigantic wristbands. Whatever it is, it's sweeping the nation... er, Cleveland. Perhaps it could become Frye's signature look, sort of like Tim Couch's ridiculously floppy sleeves.

Corey says: I'll go with a throwback this week. The classic #14 "GRAHAM", in honor of the 1954 and 1955 NFL championship-winning teams, whose 50th anniversaries were celebrated at halftime yesterday. How teams from two different years can celebrate their 50th anniversary in the same season is beyond me, but one thing is certain: Otto Graham kicks ass.

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: Don Criqui and Steve Beueuüarlein, with CBS by association. You probably didn't catch it, but at the very beginning of the telecast the announcers mentioned Dolphins-Browns being some sort of "storied rivalry". That's news to me. The Dolphins aren't a very storied franchise, having only existed since 1966 as a member of the AFL. In 1970, they joined the NFL and during Week 6 of that year, Leroy Kelly and the Browns stomped all over them 28-0. The two teams have only met 13 times in history; Miami leads the series 9-4 (including two playoff wins).

Corey says: I can't go with the announcers; for once I was able to turn on Jim Donovan and Doug Dieken while I watched the game. I don't have anything against anyone on the Dolphins. All of the Browns met my expectations. I guess I have no choice but to go with Ray Lewis, the biggest Idiot of them all. Congratulations, loser.

Number of the Week

Alex says: .15, or the number of defensive injuries caused by Charlie Frye per snap. If you're confused, allow me to explain. Frye took 20 snaps on Sunday, and during those plays, according to the official play-by-play account, three separate Dolphins injured themselves. Considering that a normal NFL QB takes somewhere between 50-60 snaps per game, if Frye were to play an entire game, we could reasonably expect eight or nine members of the defense to become incapacitated in some way. This alone is an ironclad reason to move Charlie up in the depth chart!

Corey says: 6.0%, the percentage of passing plays on which the Browns offensive line had allowed a sack, going into yesterday's game. That figure ranked them 14th in the NFL in Football Outsiders' Adjusted Sack Rate, but their ranking is sure to improve this week, as the Browns O-line kept Miami's vaunted front seven away from Dilfer and Frye all game long.

Next week: The new-look Browns march into the Metrodome for an astrological drubbing of the Vikings--not unlike those countless drubbings executed by our friends the Indians in that very building. We'll have the recap and more, right here on another "Born and Raised"!

This Sunday, two men--both Bill Belichick disciples, both former Browns defensive coordinators, both first-year NFL head coaches, both in the process of installing a new 3-4 defensive schemes, both with 3-6 records--meet in the epic "Battle of Guys with Similar Backgrounds and Circumstances"!

Yeah, that's my hook this week; just roll with it. At any rate, as always, the stats in this preview come from Football Outsiders' DVOA reports (offense, defense, special teams), while a detailed explanation of DVOA can be found here.

Browns offense vs. Dolphins defense:

           CLE offense  MIA defense
total DVOA    -3.5%        -7.9%
passing       -0.1%         3.7%
rushing       -7.9%       -19.9%

For the sixth week in a row, the Browns' rushing DVOA improves, but remains a weakness overall. Suspecting that Weighted DVOA (which tries to measure more recent performance) would paint a rosier picture of the Browns' rushing abilities, I e-mailed Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders for some extra data. The weights in Weighted DVOA aren't particularly heavy at this point in the season, but there's still a slight change: the Browns' passing offense falls to -4.3% while their rushing offense rises to -5.0%. For the second game in a row, however, they face a team with a blue-ribbon run defense (Miami's ranks 4th in DVOA; check out this informative article about their front seven), so it will most likely fall on Trent Dilfer to move the chains against the 18th-ranked Dolphins secondary. Advantage: Dolphins

Dolphins offense vs. Browns defense:

           MIA offense  CLE defense
total DVOA   -11.1%        11.2%
passing      -16.7%        16.8%
rushing       -3.9%         6.0%

Talk about an even matchup! Look at those numbers. Both the Miami offense and the Browns defense have been below average--to almost the exact same degree. If that means we're going to see an exactly average result from this side of the contest, then I guess the Dolphins will end up with about 21 points. What could change that, of course, is the likelihood that backup QB Sage Rosenfels will start, due to a Gus Frerotte "right finger" injury. Since Rosenfels has only attempted 49 passes so far in his 5-year career, he is obviously an unknown quantity. One matchup that I will watch with interest will be that of tight end Randy McMichael vs. Chris Crocker, Andra Davis and company. McMichael has been thrown to 59 times, 5th-most out of all tight ends in the NFL, but ranks a paltry 29th among tight ends in both DVOA (-14.5%) and DPAR (-0.4). Meanwhile, the Browns remain second-best in the league at defending passes thrown to tight ends (DVOA of -32.4%). Therefore, if the Dolphins continue to try to feature McMichael in their passing game, it could be a blessing for the Browns. Slight advantage: Browns

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns  Dolphins
total DVOA               1.6%     5.2%
FG kicking               1.9      1.0
CLE kickoff vs. MIA KR   0.2     -1.1
CLE KR vs. MIA kickoff   3.6      7.1
CLE punt vs. MIA PR     -0.3     -6.5
CLE PR vs. MIA punt     -0.4     15.7

The Dolphins are ranked 5th in special teams DVOA thanks to an obvious strength, their league-leading 15.7 DPAR on punts. This is partly the doing of punter Donnie Jones, who ranks 9th in the NFL in average distance, and partly the doing of the coverage team, which ranks 5th in what I'll just call "differential" (average distance minus net average; ie: the distance between where it lands and where the other team starts their drive). The Dolphins lead the NFL with a net average of 40.9 yards per punt. They're also quite good at preventing returns on kickoffs, while they're not so hot at returning punts and kicks themselves. For that reason, I wouldn't expect a big day for returns on either side. This battle should be about field position only. Advantage: Dolphins

One more thing that could affect this Sunday's game, considering the opponent, is the weather. As of Friday morning, Mistake by the Lake's own Doppler 6000000 is predicting game-time temperatures of about 47°F--higher than previously expected--with a 10% chance of precipitation. Now, that doesn't bode too well for our hopes of a freezing lake effect snowstorm (c'mon, it's the Dolphins!), but even if the weather does turn nasty, consider this: each of these head coaches, I suspect, believes his strength to be a power running game. A blanket of snow would only induce them to rely even more on the run. For the Dolphins, this could be a good thing, since their running game really is their strength. For the Browns, though, it wouldn't be so great, since they are going up against a killer run defense, and actually have a passing attack that can keep up. So, much as I would love to see the beach-baby Dolphins greeted with a brutal Cleveland winter, I'm not going to worry too much about it this week.

I think it's fair to expect a close, somewhat low-scoring game this Sunday. The Browns have a decent chance to win if they play their cards right--they're even favored by two and a half points--but in the end, if I were a gambling man, I'd probably take the Dolphins.

This is a subject that deserves updating every year or so. Here's how the Cleveland-area mascots stack up against one another, for now:

1. Slider
   
   
   
   The classic. If you grew up with Slider, you understand. The best mascots are always the ones that have no apparent connection to their team name. Slider gets extra points for having no apparent connection to anything at all. He's a... pink... thing.
   
   
2. SlapShark
   
   
   
   He's a shark with a monocle. I shouldn't have to say anything more. I can't even say with certainty that I've ever been to a Barons game (though I've vowed to go to one this year), but c'mon, he even has the obligatory minor league DoubleCapital in his name! SlapShark is a Cleveland treasure. Again: shark with a monocle.
   
   
3. CB, Chomps, TD and Trapper
   
   
   
   Kudos to the Browns for trying to assemble a mascot army instead of having just one, but these four creatures are a little bland. They don't appear to do anything, and nobody knows which is which. And dogs was a very predictable choice. They've really corporatized the Dawg Pound image.
   
   
4. Orbit
   
   
   
   Once again, having no connection to anything at all is a good thing, but if ever an alien mascot was called for, it was for the Aeros. They went ahead and named their mascot "Orbit", but--correct me if I'm wrong--that's a cat. One with little or no personality.
   
   
5. Moondog
   
   
   
   He gets a point for the name rooted in Cleveland history, but Moondog has a lot going against him. He's a dog, which, in today's exciting NBA mascot climate, is extremely boring. And he's irritating, especially when he bangs his little drum in your ear.
   
   
6. Skipper
   
   
   
   Obviously the Captains wanted to capture some of the ethos of their masters by channeling Slider in their mascot, Skipper. But this is a lame knock-off. I mean, are we honestly supposed to believe that a respectable, hard-working "pink thing" would be related to some kind of... green... thing?

It's all but undeniable that Cavaliers Basketball Presented by Cub Cadet has started strongly. And is it any surprise that this surge is led by LeBron James, master of the universe? In fact, I would just like to point out that as of right now, LeBron leads the NBA with a PER of 33.0. Yes, the season is young, but we all know that how you perform in one game is how you perform for your entire career.

I don't necessarily read what columnists have to say about the success of your Cavaliers, but I assume that they attribute the improvement so-far to the obvious changes from last season's team: improvement of LeBron (if possible), Damon Jones, Larry Hughes, and Donyell Marshall. Allow me to throw out another possibility: the Ira Newblelessness of the team. Honestly, I have no idea how frustrated I'd be to see Newble in all his squalor taking minutes away from an actual live NBA player.

Another interesting twist on the fast start for the Cavaliers is the play of one Drew Gooden. Yes, the Drew Gooden writers and fans couldn't wait to trade this summer. Why? Anyway, I believed Gooden's 2004-2005 season to likely be his best. He would probably perform some equivalent or a little worse for another 5-6 years and then fade away into role playerdom. Not that there is anything wrong with that. Gooden was one of the top power forwards in the NBA last season. But, so far in this young season Gooden has improved upon his numbers: he's shooting more often, shooting more efficiently, pulling down more rebounds (especially on the offensive glass), and blocking more shots.

Of course, this entire post is all but meaningless given sample size issues, but these are interesting ideas to think about nonetheless. And, to all you people with "Trade Drew Gooden!" trigger finger, IN YO' FACE!

Browns fans and sports writers alike would agree that the Cleveland Browns "turned the page," so to speak, when they hired Romeo Crennel and Phil Savage. This two-headed monster, which I like to call Philmeo, shows a marked distinction from past iterations of head coach-and-front office teams, such as Policy-Palmer and Butch Davis-Butch Davis. I am not one to disagree, but at least for one Sunday night game, the Browns of today played eerily similar to those of yore, and not in a good way.

I've never been a devoted fan to another NFL franchise, so I can't speak as to whether this is a common phenomenon, though I suspect not. In too many games to remember since returning in 1999, the Browns have followed a losing gameplan to a tee, performing very well on their first offensive drive only to completely fall apart and be dominated. Then, through some miraculous stroke of luck, the Browns have a chance to win if only they can get that onside kick and score again or make that decisive defensive stand, but in the end, come up short. That, friends, is last night's game in a nutshell.

The game seems particularly frustrating to Browns fans on multiple levels. Firstly, the loss came at the hands of the undignified and lecherous Steelers. Secondly, so many of the team's troubles were self-inflicted: Dennis Northcutt had two embarassingly pathetic drops, Antonio Bryant crumpled like a Hyundai and fumbled, Brian Russell had an interception nullified for penalties, und so weiter. But, in our ever-rationalizing manner here at the Mistake by the Lake, you could conclude that if the Browns somehow learn to minimize stupid mistakes like dropped first downs they could compete with any team, amateur or professional.

Play of the Week

Alex says: The game may have been out of hand at that point, but Orpheus Roye's field goal and Leigh Bodden's subsequent touchdown was the best highlight for the team. Orpheus really went down into Hades for that one! For the fourth season in a row, the Browns special teams rank as above average by DVOA according to Football Outsiders. Is it any surprise then that Special Teams Coach Jerry Rosburg took over five seasons ago? The Browns have cycled through coaches, coordinators, assistant coaches, and even players at a breakneck speed in recent years. However, it's nice to see that they never threw out the baby with the bathwater. Considering how often a Browns win is predicated on excellent special teams play, Rosburg deserves more credit for the team's occasional success.

Corey says: Out of context, the blocked field goal was the best play the Browns had all night, but for variety's sake I'll go with one of the best tackles I've seen all season: Ethan Kelley's out-of-nowhere assault on Jerome Bettis for a loss of five, making it 3-and-17 (which quickly led to one of Chris Gardocki's two punts) in the third quarter. The defense played like crap the rest of the game, but on that play I jumped up in a fit of excitement. Okay, I pumped my fists a few times. Okay, I took a sip of Coke. Woooo!

Player of the Week

Alex says: Neither the offense nor the defense shined. Deprived of the ability to choose a symbolic winner, I pick Reuben Droughns. His rushing numbers are not gaudy, which shouldn't surprise anyone because the Steelers own the 2nd-best rush defense in the NFL. Although when the Browns gave Droughns the ball, whether by rush or pass, he was quite successful. On first- and second-downs, he accumulated at least 40% of the necessary yardage for a first down 12 out 15 times. On third-downs, Reuben "Sandwich" Droughns (sorry, I couldn't resist) earned a first down each of the three times he was afforded the opportunity.

Corey says: Again, the defense had a bad game, but for lack of any great candidates I'm going with Leigh Bodden, still my favorite player. Yes, he scooped up the blocked field goal and raced in for the touchdown, but more importantly, he locked down his side of the field on defense. On plays in which Bodden was involved, the Steelers never gained more than five yards. Gary Baxter's injury a few weeks ago was potentially devastating to the secondary, but Leigh stepped right in and has done a great job. Of course, now, with Daylon McCutcheon's status uncertain, the real devastation could begin, as backup Ray Mickens was already repeatedly victimized yesterday for long receptions.

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"We got to just continue to believe in each other in this locker room. We got something special going on. And as long as we fight for each other, I mean it don't matter what nobody thinks about us. Because we're going to fight and we're going to continue to support and love and just go out there, everyday, practice, game, whatever. We're going to just stick by each other. And no matter what nobody say, we're going to be with each other." --Andra Davis

Riiiight.

Corey says:

"We came in, and in the first quarter we were pretty competitive and got a touchdown. Then, they got the momentum in the second quarter and we were not able to get the momentum back. That's what good football teams do. They take the momentum away from you and don't let you get it back." --Romeo Crennel

I suspect that "momentum" as an explanation for success is a term that analysts and coaches way overuse. It would be easy enough to test: is a team more likely to score after having just scored? Or: is a team less likely to score after having just been scored upon? Of course, I would have to rely on someone else to test it for me. My feeling, though, is that what's often perceived as "momentum" is actually just "being better than your opponent".

Ryan Pontbriand Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: Corey and I will agree that the blocked field goal and resulting touchdown was the peak of special teams performance last night. For nearly the entire season, Clevelanders have been on the edge of their seats waiting for Kyle Richardson to screw up. Thankfully, his shanking problem has disappeared in the past two games.

Corey says: Of course it's the blocked field goal/touchdown. It's the second time Orpheus Roye has blocked a field goal in as many seasons, and, not coincidentally, the second time he's made the Special Teams Moment of the Week. Meanwhile, I noted on Friday that the Steelers' punting had been second-worst in the NFL, hoping that Dennis Northcutt might finally be able to get something going on a return, and what happened? The Browns did not attempt a single punt return. The Steelers only punted twice, both times downing it inside the 10. So much for that.

Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: I choose nose tackle Ethan Kelley, whose stuffing of Jerome Bettis Corey tagged as the Play of the Week. In fact, the play was so spectacular that I wrote a note to myself not to forget it in this week's edition of "Born and Raised". I can't say whether Ethan did anything else good for the rest of the game, but that one play was like really, really awesome. However, I should note that most of the praise/blame should be shouldered by Pittsburgh's center and right guard, Jeff Hartings and Kendall Simmons respectively, neither of whom decided to block Kelley on his way to steamroll Bettis.

Corey says: I guess I'll go with Ethan Kelley, too, for making the already mentioned Play of the Week. He also had four other tackles, a sizable total for a nose tackle. Ethan bucks the trend of Obscure Browns with unusual middle names, but he does have two middle names (Jeffery Arthur), meaning we can call him EJAK.

Fashion of the Week

Alex says: The #11 WINSLOW jersey, because it is so tragically hilarious. While I understand the zeal of Browns fans to own a Winslow jersey once he was drafted, there were many news reports about him trying to bribe Aaron Shea out of #80. And to add insult to injury, Winslow has become somewhat of an afterthought and joke in Cleveland sports recently, what with his Ducati-crashing, Westlake-living craziness and that 38th-string Jason Wright has been more productive than Sgt. Stupid these past two seasons.

Corey says: The #99 "ORPHEUS". Not the #99 "ROYE", mind you; that's just not as cool. Meanwhile, this is as good a place as any for a Sock Minutiae Update. After four preseason and six regular season games establishing a pattern of wearing striped socks with their white jerseys (much to my exuberance), the Browns suffered a Major Sock Relapse (MSR) yesterday, reverting to the hideous all-brown-socks-with-white-jerseys combo that was prevalent in 2003 and 2004. And after we had come so far! Why?!?

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: As much as I want to vent about the sheer stupidity of Mike Patrick, Paul Maguire, and Joe Theismann, I am led to believe that all Browns fans share these thoughts and that it is in everyone's best interest to keep this edition of "Born and Raised" under 12,000 words. Therefore, I will just highlight an especially infuriating aspect of their benightedness. All game, we were led to believe that Jerome Bettis was some kind of goal line monster. He is all but guaranteed to pick up a yard when you need it most, they say. Three times Bettis was given the ball in a short-yardage situation and only once did he make good (that being his touchdown). In fact, on 5 of his 9 carries "the Bus" gained one yard or less. On not one of those five runs did the Steelers move the chains.

Corey says: From the same three idiots who brought you the "Watch Jamal Lewis' Feet!" sermon, it's the Top Five Things You Didn't Know About Troy Polamalu:

1. As a child, Troy Polamalu supported his family by racing against ostriches across the desert, winning all 145 times.
2. Chemicals in Troy Polamalu's hair have already cured 61 diseases and, it is believed, will be able to cure AIDS when the hair reaches a certain length.
3. Troy Polamalu won gold medals in wrestling and ski jumping at the original Olympic Games, in ancient times.
4. Troy Polamalu donates so much of his time to charity that the world economy was recently declared fixed and poverty ceased to exist as a concept.
5. Troy Polamalu's blood has more midichlorians in it than anyone ever to have lived.

In conclusion, shut up, idiots.

Number of the Week

Alex says: 2, or the number of games this season in which the Browns' turnover differential has been positive. Surprise, surprise, those two games were the wins against Green Bay and Chicago. Outside of those two contests, the Browns have -10 net turnovers on the season--which would be second-worst in the AFC, beating only the lowly Baltimore Ratbirds. Personally, I think the Browns have something of a fumbling problem as they average over one and a half per game. Some would call this fumblitis, or the inflammation of the fumble. Personally, I believe the correct term to be fumblosis, or the condition of fumbles.

Corey says: 15.0, which is the Browns' scoring average through the first nine games of the season. This, I believe, is the third-worst average in the NFL. You know things are bad when the Browns score 21 against the Steelers--which is more or less the league scoring average--and it's the second-highest point total they've amassed all season. Now, we know from observation (and from DVOA) that the Browns do not have the third-worst offense in the NFL (DVOA ranks them 20th), but it's awfully frustrating. What happened to the patented Kelly Holcomb-style shootout loss?

Next week: The Browns stage one of the most thrilling upsets in NFL history over the 3-6 Miami Dolphins, thanks to the recovery of their beloved mascots CB, Chomps, Trapper, and TD from criminally insane former player-turned-kidnapper Ray Finkle. We'll shoot first and ask questions later with another edition of "Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns"!

It's going to be difficult, sure, but the folks at ESPN have agreed to pretend, for a few hours at least, that there exists an NFL outside the world of T.O. (who has B.O.). Thus, the Browns are going to be treated to a real-live national broadcast--one that promises to be at least a third as informative as a normal broadcast!

As always, the stats below come from Football Outsiders' DVOA reports (offense, defense, special teams). A detailed explanation of DVOA can be found here.

Browns offense vs. Steelers defense:

           CLE offense  PIT defense
total DVOA    -5.4%       -17.5%
passing       -1.1%       -13.5%
rushing      -10.8%       -22.3%

The Browns' rushing DVOA has improved after each of the last five games, yet it remains the weakness of the offense. Of course, this is probably not the case in terms of weighted DVOA (which favors recent games). Unfortunately, that data (specific to rushing, at least), is not available on the FO website. The Steelers' run defense ranks 2nd in the NFL, though, so regardless of the Browns' true rushing ability, it's going to be an uphill battle. The Steelers' pass defense is also solid; however, one thing they haven't done well is defend passes to slot receivers (21.3% DVOA) or running backs (18.5% DVOA), possibly because of their tendency to blitz all the time. It's a minor weakness, but it's there. Advantage: Steelers

Steelers offense vs. Browns defense:

           PIT offense  CLE defense
total DVOA     5.5%         9.3%
passing       15.1%        13.9%
rushing       -0.9%         4.8%

The Steelers have an interesting offense. Their play-calling has been more run-heavy than any in the league. Their 33.2 rushing attempts per game is the third-most in the NFL, while their 21.9 throwing attempts per game is the league's fewest. Because of this they have developed a reputation as a great rushing team, even though their rushing DVOA is just average. Their true strength has been their passing game. But wait! You can take that 15.1% passing DVOA with a grain of salt, because the drop-off from the injured Ben Roethlisberger (who leads the NFL in DVOA among quarterbacks, with 45.1%) to this week's starter, Charlie Batch, is sizable. We may therefore see the Steelers focus even more heavily on the run, which would play to the strengths of the Browns defense. Of course, the Browns defense is still nothing special (remember, they haven't faced a decent offense in a looong time), so I guess what I'm saying is, I don't quite know what to expect. Slight advantage: Steelers

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns  Steelers
total DVOA               2.0%    -0.6%
FG kicking               1.9      2.0
CLE kickoff vs. PIT KR   0.1     -0.1
CLE KR vs. PIT kickoff   3.7      3.0
CLE punt vs. PIT PR     -1.2     -0.8
CLE PR vs. PIT punt      1.0     -5.8

The number that jumps out here is the Steelers' -5.8 punting DPAR, second-worst in the NFL. Whether this is the fault of Chris Gardocki or his coverage, I don't know. But maybe, just maybe--and I know I've said this before--this is the week that Dennis Northcutt gets to enjoy a long punt return and keep it on the books. The Browns' up-and-down special teams are definitely going to have to be up this week if they're going to make a game of it. Advantage: Browns

All in all, things don't look pretty. For the Browns, this is probably the biggest game of the year, and it's not going to be an easy one. Injuries on both sides make things a little harder to predict than usual, sure--just not enough to obscure Pittsburgh's obvious edge. Thus, dear readers, you know what to do: go ahead and lay some money on the Browns, because if I, Corey Rubin, were a gambling man, I'd unequivocally take the Steelers.

Let's take a look at two hypothetical seasons by two hypothetical starting pitchers. Which pitcher was better?

            ERA   IP    K  BB  VORP  WARP3
Pitcher A  3.79  202  143  52  39.8    4.9
Pitcher B  2.86  192  146  52  52.3    6.3

If you said Pitcher B, you'd be...

WRONG!

Wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong. Wrong. You are so stupid, it's beyond words. Want to know why you're wrong? It's quite simple, really:

            W   L
Pitcher A  18   5
Pitcher B   9  11

For you see, a pitcher has complete control over his own wins and losses. And that, children, is why Player A is better than Player B, why Cy Young is the best pitcher ever, why Charley Radbourn's 1884 is the greatest pitching season of all-time, and why Bartolo Colon was the best pitcher in the AL this season.

You might have guessed that these hypothetical pitchers with their hypothetical seasons were in actuality, real. Player A is, of course, Cliff Lee with B being Kevin Millwood. I bring this up to highlight that Cliff Lee was the 4th place candidate for the 2005 AL Cy Young award, with two 2nd place and two 3rd place votes, while Millwood received only one measly third place vote. All this coming despite Millwood undeniably outperforming Lee in almost every statistical category imaginable. Except wins.

I shouldn't be complaining, because it's no shocker that baseball writers have the collective intelligence of a first grader. Yet when an Indian is slighted, I feel slighted. I only wanted to stand up for my man, Kevin Millwood. Anyways, the real winner should have been Johan Santana.

After yesterday's thrilling victory over the Tennessee Titans, my powers of prognostication tell me that the Browns will finish their season with a record of 10-6, losing again only to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 12. Ever since I started doing weekly game previews based on DVOA, the Browns have done the opposite of what the statistics would suggest, week after week. They beat the teams with the superior DVOA ratings--Chicago and Tennessee--but lost to the teams that were weaker at the time--Baltimore, Detroit, and Houston.

The result of this is that I have been made to look quite the fool. What little credibility I may have had is rapidly slipping away. Nevermind the fact that using DVOA to predict the winners of all NFL games yields a higher success rate than using, say, the Vegas betting line, or the intuitions of any individual "prognosticator"--the Browns, by some coincidence, have bucked the odds, five weeks in a row.

I have this friend--let's call him "Scott"--who has this theory. It says, basically, that my attempts to analyze the Browns in an objective, rational manner inevitably create the very jinx that causes them to lose all the time. Not that I'm about to change my ways. Next week, for example, the Browns play the Steelers, and in all likelihood I'm going to make my prediction based on the statistics. If that means I turn out to be wrong--and the Browns win--then so be it!

So fasten your seatbelts, Browns fans, if this pattern is for real, the good times are just beginning to roll! Super Bowl, here we come!

Play of the Week

Alex says: First off, I apologize to all readers--I missed this week's game. After a dash to LaGuardia Airport, I was prepared to watch the second half, at least, with the Browns Backers. However, the New York City Marathon and its associated traffic nightmare conspired to keep me a good distance away from the Browns game.

Anyway, I choose Andra Davis' sack of Titans QB Steve McNair which seemingly ended the game. It was only seemingly because, as we all know, Tennessee got another chance to win it. While Davis receives the statistical credit for the sack, it is obvious from replays that credit is due to the secondary. McNair had more than enough time to throw a pass, if a single receiver had been open, that is. This was perhaps the most "clutch" play on the afternoon.

Corey says: There are so many offensive plays to choose from, but I'm going with the one that was most fun (not coincidentally, the one that was the trickiest): Dennis Northcutt's 31-yard gain on a reverse. The best and most amusing part of this play was the fact that Trent Dilfer found himself sprinting downfield as Dennis' lead blocker for almost the entire length of the play. This was not how the play was designed, but, as Trent explained in his postgame press conference, his man was already being blocked, so he decided to make himself useful. As Dilfer tells it, Northcutt was behind him yelling "Go! Trent! Go!" the whole way. Of course, it turned out that Dennis didn't actually need a Dilfer block to get his 31 yards, but, just to make sure all was not in vain, Dilfer jumped onto a pile anyway. On a day in which he was not sacked once, how else was a QB supposed to get some mud on his jersey?

Player of the Week

Alex says: A jack-of-all-trades for one game, Dennis Northcutt was productive every single time he got his hands on the ball, literally.

• 1st-and-10 on Browns' 42: 58-yard reception for a touchdown
• 4th-and-13 on Titans' 37: 16-yard punt return, resulting in a punt of 21 net yards. However, it's called back on a penalty by Josh "MTV" Cribbs
• 1st-and-10 on Browns' 36: 15-yard reception for a first down
• 1st-and-10 on Browns' 47: 7-yard reception
• 4th-and-10 on Titans' 34: 36-yard punt return, which is called back thanks to a penalty on Corey McIntyre. It would have been a net 9-yard punt
• 1st-and-10 on Browns' 39: 31-yard rush on a reverse for a first down.

All this productivity led to 117 official total yards. 163 if you add in the nullified punt returns.

Corey says: I would love to give Player of the Week to an offensive lineman for the second week in a row, since, as I've said, they didn't allow a single sack, and since, as a rule, running backs get way too much credit for success in the running game, but I'm just going to give it to Reuben Droughns. For one, it would be impossible to single out just one lineman for a great performance. And for two, this was one of those rare games about which I'll actually admit that the running back created some of his own success. I'm on record as one who suspects that NFL running backs are essentially interchangeable in about 90% of what they do. A big part of that remaining 10%, however, is shedding tackles (ie: turning 7-yard gains into 20-yard gains), something that Reuben Droughns seems to relish. Yesterday, he had as good a game, I think, as any Browns running back has had since the expansion.

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"I feel that the way this year's been going, Phil [Dawson] was one of our better players. So I felt like I should put it in his hands--on his foot, so to speak." --Romeo Crennel

Oh, Romeo, you tricky wordsmith! This quote highlights an interesting problem for Browns analysts: which Phil Dawson did we witness this week, Human Phil or Robot Phil? As you may remember, through all of the 2004 and 2005 seasons, in each individual game, Dawson has been either perfect (Human) or scoreless (Robot) on field goal attempts. This week, however, Dawson hit his three field goals, only to have the last one nullified by a penalty. On the ensuing re-kick, he somehow missed. Did he send for the robot doppelgänger in between snaps? It seems unlikely, so I'll chalk this effort up to good ol' Human Phil. It is nothing short of horrifying to think that he could miss an attempt, though.

Corey says:

"It's a whole new offense, whole new coaching staff, whole new scheme. So we're getting into it. And this is mid-season; now we're at the hill, going downhill." --Antonio Bryant

You can always count on a good locker room quote from Cookie. Ignoring the obvious "things can only go downhill from here" retorts for the moment, I think what Antonio means is that, if the season is like climbing a hill, then this game, being the mid-point of the adventure, represents the end of the so-called "hard part" and now begins the part where the Browns open a can of whoop-ass on the NFL. Hey, makes perfect sense to me!

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: Following a performance against the Texans last week that was, at best, horrible, Kyle Richardson bounced back this week with a magnificent game. His best punt was likely his first of the afternoon--a 49-yard parabola that bounced out-of-bounds at the 5. Kyle had other fine punts, but on this play he needed none of his teammates to assist him with a "downing" of the punt.

Corey says: Overall, the Browns special teams had an up-and-down day. Richardson was great--did you see his bruising tackle of a Titans punt returner to save a touchdown?--but I'm going to go in another direction. In my game preview, I noted that the Tennessee special teams had been among the best in the NFL; yet, this week they let their team down on a few crucial plays, which essentially allowed the Browns to win. First, there was kicker Rob Bironas' sole FG attempt of the game, a miss in the second quarter. Had it been good, the Titans could have tied it with an easy FG on the final snap of regulation, instead of heaving a desperation pass into Brodney Pool's arms. Then there was the failed fake punt, which, although it failed due to Titans ineptitude and not Browns eptitude, set up the Browns in excellent field position, which turned into a quick three points--again, keeping the Titans out of game-tying range in the fourth quarter.

Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: You ought to know who I choose. Of course, it's Obscure Brown of the Century nominee Jason Wright! In Jason's very first game as a Cleveland Brown, he scored a touchdown--the first rushing TD for the Browns this season. Talk about taking advantage of opportunities. Jason is from Northwestern University, and is noted for singing the national anthem at the March 5, 2003 basketball game between the visiting Ohio State Buckeyes and Northwestern Wildcats. OSU won that game, 52-48, behind two late free throws from Brent Darby.

Corey says: For the first time in the history of Obscure Brown of the Week, it's a sweep! Not only was Jason Wright arguably the most obscure player on the team, having just been brought up from the practice squad, he was among the major contributors on offense. We may never again see such a combination of obscurity and production. Here's something you probably didn't know about Jason: he's brilliant! He was a double-major at NU, in psychology and pre-med. He actually took the MCATs... and placed in the 92nd percentile! But perhaps the best part about Jason? In true Obscure Brown of the Week fashion, he has a hilarious middle name! Gomillion. Seriously. Jason Gomillion Wright.

Fashion of the Week

Alex says: One of the keys, in my mind, to the purchase of a jersey of an Obscure Brown is to make sure that the name is uncommon. For example, if I were to sport a #3 ANDERSON in honor of Browns 3rd-string QB Derek Anderson, the gesture would be lost on approximately 99.9% of fans. They would assume that I was just some jerk named "Anderson" conceited enough to pretend I play in the NFL. Therefore, I recommend that you instead purchase a jersey like my selection for this week, a #53 UNCK. Personally, I have never known of another person named Unck outside of Mason. And, given that Mason has been making a name for himself as a special teamer extraordinaire, the purchase will reap serious rewards.

Corey says: Well, I'll tell you what's not the Fashion of the Week--that thing Titans tight end Erron Kinney had behind his head. My jersey this week is a good ol' #86 NORTHCUTT, for obvious reasons. Northcutt's modus operandi seems to be that he has the occasional big game, accomplishing all manner of crazy feats, but lays low the rest of the time. Regardless, if he sticks around for another few years I think we'll all look back on his career in Cleveland quite fondly.

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: Not having seen the game, I am without the crutch of picking on moronic television announcers, so I choose Steve Heiden as this week's idiot. Now, be assured that I am a fan of Mr. Heiden. Against the Titans this week, though, he was the perpetrator of three penalties: (1) an illegal motion penalty, which, on the following play, led to a Dilfer/Droughns fumble, (2) another illegal motion penalty at the beginning of the third quarter which nullified a 13-yard run by Droughns to the 5-yard line, and (3) a holding penalty which zeroed out Phil Dawson's game-icing FG.

Corey says: This seems to have become my designated space for complaining about pass interference penalties that were not called. This week it's a Titans defensive back whose name I did not catch (and who is not named in the official play-by-play). The play in question was the second-to-last of the first half--the desperation heave to Braylon Edwards on the left sideline, one play before Dilfer threw an interception to end the half. The Titans player essentially fell on Braylon, knocking him to the ground a good five yards before the pass arrived. Had the penalty rightly been called, the Browns would have at least gotten an extra field goal before halftime, if not a Braylon Edwards 37-yard TD catch.

Number of the Week

Alex says: 10, or the number of offensive plays the Browns had that ended up in gains of 15 or more yards. And these weren't garbage time yards piling up either. Plus these "home runs" were evenly spread: three for Northcutt, four for Antonio Bryant, three for Droughns, and even one for Obscure Brown of the Week Jason Wright. Also throw in that half of these big plays came on third downs. It is evident that the Browns found success on offense not through grinding it out, but with quick, powerful hits to the defense.

Corey says: One gomillion, or the number of Dennis Northcutt punt return yards that have been nullified due to penalties this season. Okay, so the number is actually 249; it's still ridiculously high. These penalties would be easier to swallow, in my opinion, if they had been necessary to spring Northcutt's return, but in each case they have been either behind the play or on the other side of the field. Had Northcutt's exploits thus far been counted, statistically, he would be the best punt returner in the league right now by a ridiculous margin, and on pace for one of the greatest seasons by a punt returner in NFL history.

Next week: It's a battle between delicious, brown stadium mustard and hideous, Heinz yellow mustard--the Boys in Brown are sure to win! And get your mute buttons ready, Cleveland; this one's on ESPN's Sunday Night Football. As always, we'll be recapping every excruciating minute in extremely long-winded fashion, right here in another "Born and Raised"!

It's not exactly the most anticipated matchup on the Browns' schedule, but this week's game against Tennessee should be fun to watch--these two teams resemble one another, both statistically and in terms of current circumstances. Let me tell you right now, the edge, whoever has it, is going to be slight.

First, as usual: the stats below come from Football Outsiders' weekly DVOA reports (offense, defense, special teams). A detailed explanation of DVOA can be found here.

Browns offense vs. Titans defense:

           CLE offense  TEN defense
total DVOA    -7.9%        12.0%
passing       -1.2%        30.4%
rushing      -16.9%        -8.9%

The Browns' weakness remains running the ball, even after two straight games of perceived success. Meanwhile, the Titans' run defense, currently ranked 8th in the NFL in DVOA, has excelled. For that reason, I don't expect Reuben Droughns to move the chains much. Frankly, I don't expect the Browns to attempt as many running plays as usual, since, as of now, Droughns' sole healthy backup is Obscure Brown of the Week shoo-in Jason Wright, newly signed from the practice squad. Don't worry, though; the Titans' pass defense has been atrocious, so it would be advisable to favor the pass this week. Look for Antonio Bryant and Dennis Northcutt to victimize the Titans' rookie corners; the Tennessee defense is ranked 30th and 32nd in DVOA on passes thrown to #1 and #2 receivers, respectively. Slight advantage: Browns

Titans offense vs. Browns defense:

           TEN offense  CLE defense
total DVOA    -7.0%         9.0%
passing       -1.9%        12.3%
rushing      -14.2%         5.9%

Tennessee's offensive numbers look eerily similar to our own. The Titans have a marginally better chance at achieving some balance on offense, however, since the Browns' secondary isn't nearly as bad. One matchup I will be watching with great interest will be that of strong safety Chris Crocker vs. tight end Erron Kinney. The Titans throw to Kinney a lot--his 7.6 DPAR is ranked 7th among tight ends and his catch percentage of 85% is the best among all tight ends and wide receivers in the NFL. Crocker, however, is having an outstanding season. As the strong safety, he tends to line up opposite the tight end, so it is largely thanks to him that the Browns defense has a DVOA of -67.7% on passes thrown to tight ends--the second-best such mark in the NFL. It will be interesting to see if Steve McNair still insists on feeding it to Kinney, especially since Drew Bennett, the only Titans wideout with decent DVOA or DPAR numbers, will miss the game with an injury. Since I started doing these game previews, this might be the closest we've had to a truly even matchup. That said, due to the Bennett injury and the Titans' reliance on their tight end, I'm actually going to go against the inclinations of DVOA and say, Slight advantage: Browns

Special teams matchups:

                       Browns  Titans
total DVOA              1.5%    6.0%
FG kicking              3.4     1.5
CLE kickoff vs. TEN KR -0.7     5.2
CLE KR vs. TEN kickoff  4.0     4.1
CLE punt vs. TEN PR    -3.2     1.3
CLE PR vs. TEN punt     0.2     4.6

Despite last week's disaster of a special teams performance, the Browns still rank 12th in the NFL in special teams DVOA. Unfortunately, Tennessee ranks 4th. The Titans have the league's 5th-highest kickoff returning DPAR, so don't be too surprised if we see a repeat of last week, with Pacman Jones or Courtney Roby playing the role of Jerome Mathis. The Browns' punting, meanwhile, has become a problem. In 2004, despite the popular opinion, the Browns punt team actually ranked 4th in the NFL with a DPAR of 17.0 (led, of course, by Mistake by the Lake heroes Ryan Pontbriand and Leigh Bodden). So far this season, however, they are ranked 29th, with a DPAR of -3.2. One thing is for sure: the special teams will have their hands full this week, as their opposition has been solid in every phase. Advantage: Titans

Overall, this is as close a matchup as the Browns have faced all season. Special teams ought to play a major role, as they did last week. Of course, however it turns out, it ought to be a fun game to watch. If I were a gambling man, well... I'd stay the hell away from this one. But if I were a gambling man and you absolutely forced me to pick a winner, I guess I'd take the Titans, by a hair.

Last night's Cavs opener showed us another heavenly performance from Our Lord and Savior LeBron James. Whatever negatives the new season may have brought that require my brother and me to rant/spew venom (ahem, Ronnie Duncan) will have to wait for another day, for today it's all about The King.

It wasn't one of his patented triple-double-type ensembles; rather, a shooting clinic--the likes of which we have rarely, if ever, seen from LeBron. Was it his most efficient shooting performance yet? Let's check.

I'll use a stat called True Shooting Percentage (TS%) which reflects the added value of a three-pointer and also considers free throws. As a reference, LeBron's 2005 TS% was .554 while the 2005 league average was .529. Here are the top five single-game shooting performances of LeBron's career:

  Date     Opp.   FGM-A  3PM-A  FTM-A  Pts   TS%
03/15/05  at UTA  11-15   2-5   12-16   36  .817
11/02/05  vs NOK   9-16   6-7    7-8    31  .794
11/24/04  at DET  15-22   2-3   11-12   43  .788
01/26/05  at MEM  10-16   4-6    3-4    27  .760
01/08/05  at NYK  10-14   0-0    2-2    22  .739

So there you have it. Last night, LeBron shot the second-most efficiently he's ever shot. (And to think it came against the legendary Oklahoma City defense.) This was an exciting way to open the season. Next up, however: the competition gets slightly tougher, as the Cavs go from hosting the possible worst team to visiting the probable best team. Bring on the Spurs!

Tomorrow night, Cleveland Cavaliers Basketball Presented by Cub Cadet officially takes the floor for the first time in the 2005-2006 season. As you might remember from running commentary from myself in the form of "Are They Improved?" (the first, second, third, and fourth) I came to the conclusion that the Cavaliers were poised to be much improved due to the net additions to the team: Damon Jones, Donyell Marshall, and Larry Hughes essentially replacing the dubious contributions of Jeff McInnis, Ira Newble, and Tractor "Robert" Traylor.

Personally, I find the prediction of exact won-loss records lunacy--but I do expect los Caballeros to at least have the home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. "Experts" across the internet are in a good deal of disagreement about the fate of Cavaliers Basketball Presented by Cub Cadet this season. I could go down the line and nit-pick each forecast, but I don't have the patience for it. Reading the national media's "take" on the Cavaliers riles me up likely because I imagine them expecting LeBron James to suit up in a Knicks uniform any day now.

If you've ever read any of our drivel here at the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times, you'd know that both Corey and I are always looking for ways to objectively explain Cleveland sports. We're stats-obsessed, in so many words. And it pleased me to no end to find that John Hollinger, the most prominent of "sabermetric" basketball writers, stands alone in his prediction for the '05-'06 LeBrons among the stable of ESPN writers: 2nd in the East and the first MVP trophy for King James. Hollinger's reasons for the predictions are surely interesting, if not unheard (at least among traditional Cleveland sports writers): The 2004-2005 Cavaliers were statistically a very good team, except for terrible three-point shooting. The team added two of the best available shooters in Marshall and Jones, and brought in Larry Hughes to boot.

I am anxious to finally see the new-look Cavaliers Basketball Presented by Cub Cadet. If all this talk of head coach Mike Brown being a defensive wizard is true, Clevelanders are in for a fantastic surprise.