Happy Halloween! [Insert forced segue from Halloween to Browns game] Perhaps the most compelling aspect of football is the fact that the better team does not always end up the winning team. In fact, the team that plays better in any given 60 minutes doesn't even always end up the winning team. Case in point: this week's contest between our beloved Browns and the feeble Houston Texans. Let's face it, the Browns played better than the Texans. They had more rushing yards, passing yards, and first downs than the Texans, yet Houston snuck by with a victory.

This reminds us that the balance of the game sometimes rests not on the overall play of the teams, but on a few key plays, like Trent Dilfer's and Reuben Droughns' fumbles, Antonio Bryant's out-of-bounds touchdown reception, Jerome Mathis' 63-yard kickoff return, and of course the Browns' final offensive snap of the game. This is not to say these were the only important plays that spelled doom for the Browns, but these stand out.

Usually the Browns' performance has a strong effect on my mood, no matter the stakes of the game. But for whatever reason, after this week's loss, against a truly pathetic team, I didn't get down at all. There is something else that makes me worry, though: the Charlie Frye Bandwagon. I am very excited for the day when Charlie takes the starting quarterback spot for the Browns; however, I don't think that day is at hand. Next season? Sure, maybe. But I am for unity among Browns fans. I don't want a petty disagreement to pit us against one another.

So my fellow Browns enthusiasts, I urge you to relax. If Trent Dilfer starts next week, or for the rest of the season for that matter, I severely doubt it will stunt the development of Mr. Frye in any way. Now at 2-5, it is unlikely that even the alleged magical powers of Charlie Brown could carry this team into contention in 2005. Patience, my friends, it is a virtue.

Play of the Week

Alex says: It may be boring and passé, but I choose the Browns' only touchdown of the afternoon. Trent Dilfer's 8-yard pass to Aaron Shea was in fact a nifty play, with the QB rolling out, throwing under pressure, and Shea picking the ball off his shoetops. Of course, this play would be easily be trumped if Antonio Bryant had kept his right foot back an extra two inches.

Corey says: Predictable, yes, but where do you get boring and passé? Don't forget, Shea's TD catch was on 4th-and-1, early in the game, when, by all rights, the Browns probably should have taken the easy 3 points instead of going for it. Not that I'm complaining! For variety's sake, though, I'll go with Leigh Bodden's interception, which was the stand-out play on the other side of the ball, on a day when the defense played pretty well. The fact that they gave up 16 points, I think, masks the fact that the Texans had excellent field position all day thanks to special teams and turnovers. For the Browns defense, surrendering a bunch of field goals over and over meant basically that they gave up no ground.

Player of the Week

Alex says: Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times favorite, Leigh Bodden! Pushed into a starting cornerback slot by Gary Baxter's injury, Leigh played great in my mind. He had an acrobatic interception, he broke up a touchdown jumpball, and did some other stuff I can't remember now. In fact, I sat with a loyal reader at Browns Backers, who remarked, "I'm becoming a Leigh Bodden fan". Now, I know what you're thinking: something about a touchdown and getting burned and Jerome Mathis. Well let me tell you something, punk, Leigh had over-the-top help from safety Bryan Russell on that play. Ipso facto, it was Russell's fault. Hail Bodden!

Corey says: What the hell; my Player of the Week is Jeff Faine. The Browns averaged 6.0 yards per carry on rushes that the official play-by-play log deemed to be "up the middle". This was the Browns' best such average among all rushing "directions". (The next-best rushing averages for the Browns yesterday were "left guard", 5.6 ypc, and "right tackle", 5.5 ypc.) Furthermore, Texans interior linemen were only credited with tackles (or assists) on 3 plays all day, none of them sacks. I'm no game film expert, but that sounds like a pretty good day for Mr. Faine. Mainly, though, I just wanted to name an offensive lineman, since we never do that. And those guys deserve a lot of credit for the Browns going almost an entire game without committing a penalty. My runner-up would be Andra Davis, but given the manner in which Messrs. Eagle and Wilcots were fawning over him all game long, I think I'll give that speech a rest today.

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"We're one play away. When we start making that one play, you know what I'm saying, everything turns around for us." --Chaun Thompson

On one hand, it is true that if the Browns had simply scored a touchdown on their final offensive snap, or really at any other point in the game, they would have come away with a victory. On the other hand, the addition of one good play is unlikely to suddenly make the Browns contenders. That would take, at the very least, like two, maybe three, plays.

Corey says:

"I've been wanting to be a Texans cheerleader all my life!" --Texans cheerleader Gwen

Wow, Gwen, you must have been really thrilled when they announced the creation of the Texans; that was, like, a big need before you could realize your lifelong dream. (P.S., Picking on people's stupid comments always feels like cheating. P.P.S., This is an actual quote.)

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: Jerome Mathis was clearly a thorn in the Browns' side for the entire afternoon, sans one play, that play being the RPHSTMOTW. On the opening kickoff of the second half, Phil Dawson kicked the ball down the left sideline to Mathis. Mason Unck, coming from the opposite side, quickly and deftly shed a block and brought down Mathis for a short return at the 17-yard line. The returner looked surprised to have a defender in his face so quickly. Jerome Mathis, you've been Unck'd.

Corey says: Mathis was a thorn in the Browns' side all day, but my Special Teams Moment actually comes from one of his "successful" returns. On the last play of the first quarter, he returned a kick 35 yards and had nothing but green in front of him before none other than Human Phil Dawson forced him out of bounds, saving a touchdown. Dawson was credited with a tackle on the play, the 11th of his career. The Texans offense went 3-and-out on the ensuing possession before punting it back to the Browns, so Phil really did save his team some points. Oh, and by the way, he remains perfect on the season in FG attempts, perfect all-time in his home state of Texas, and 18 for his last 18 going back to last season.

Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: Backup guard (and center) Mike Pucillo, who filled in for the injured Joe Andruzzi in the first quarter. His stint was very short-lived though, as Joe returned to action during the second quarter. The O-line today played to a much higher standard than in previous weeks, although we might have the quality of opposition to thank for that one.

Corey says: Backup wide receiver Brandon "Redo" Rideau, #11. He didn't dress for yesterday's game (not everybody can), but for the first time in his life he was on a 53-man roster in the NFL, and that's no easy accomplishment. Brandon hails from Ben Broussard's hometown of Beaumont, Texas, not too far from Houston. He probably won't get any playing time this season unless a receiver gets injured. As it stands, the Browns only have four receivers that they use, but Josh Cribbs is technically one too, and they're keeping him on the roster for other, obvious reasons.

Fashion of the Week

Alex says: Ever since the Browns traded away prized WR Andre Davis, no Brown has adorned a jersey with both his first and last names. This long tradition, encompassing Cleveland greats like Andra Davis, Andre Davis, Mark Smith, and Marquis Smith, is sure to come into play again sometime soon. So, this week I'm honoring potential jerseys like a #26 SEAN JONES or #42 TERELLE SMITH. Although what I'd really love to see is a #33 DAYLON McCUTCHEON.

Corey says: What, just in case they sign someone named "Dayloe McCutcheon"? And didn't Marquis Smith just have "MARQ SMITH" on his jersey, or am I remembering wrong? On another fashion note, my preseason question about the Browns' socks was answered this week, as the Browns wore their brown jerseys for the first time this year, including the preseason. I had wondered if the all-brown sock experiment was truly over, or if they would still wear the all-brown socks with the brown (and probably orange) jerseys. As I expected, they wore the all-brown socks, even though they're ugly and the old striped socks of pre-2002 were awesome and classic! Anyway, my jersey of the week is a #81 BRYANT, or, at the very least, a #81 MORGAN with a piece of duct tape saying "BRYANT" over it. That's a little number I could easily cook up if I dug through my closet a little, though I'm not proud to admit it.

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: Punter Kyle Richardson for contributing his second consecutive piss-poor performance. He started things off nicely with a 19-yard shank after the Browns' first drive and followed it up with punts of 33 and 30 net yards. Richardson finished off his day with a flourish: a 10-yard shank. I don't know who makes the decision, but either Maurice Carthon or Romeo Crennel have proven themselves conservative when it comes to punting vs. going for it on close fourth downs. But with Richardson sucking away without abandon, the coach should take that extra second to think over the decision one last time. Derrick Frost, the obvious man to replace Richardson, is currently on the Redskins--which is a slight hindrance to his rejoining the Browns.

Corey says: My choice is a more traditional Cheater of the Week. It's Texans cornerback Phillip Buchanon, #31, who committed an obvious pass interference penalty on Antonio Bryant on a 3rd-and-4 play at the end of the Browns' first drive of the game. It was not called, the Browns punted, the punt sucked, the Texans had good field position, and scored a touchdown to take a 7-0 lead. This was all Buchanon's fault. If the NFL was run like a court of law, the Browns would file an appeal, the pass interference would be called, the 7 points would be taken off the board, the Browns would be given credit for a win, and Phillip Buchanon would be forced to give Antonio Bryant his 50 cents back, apologize, and be fired.

Number of the Week

Alex says: 2, or the number of sacks recorded by the Browns. Through Week 6 (Week 7 and 8 data not available yet), Football Outsiders ranked the Browns' pass rush 24th in the NFL in Adjusted Sack Rate--averaging approximately one sack for every 20 pass plays after adjustments for opponent and such. Houston's pass protection, using this same metric (only for offensive lines), ranks as the absolute worst in the NFL, allowing a sack for every 5 pass plays. So what happened during Week 8? The Browns sacked David Carr only twice in about 25-30 chances; unimpressive considering the historic suckiness of the Texans' offensive line.

Corey says: That may be true, mon frère, but I feel the Browns pass rush did a better job disrupting the Texans' passing plans than their two sacks would suggest, given the number of times David Carr was flushed out of the pocket and ended up having to run it for either no gain or like a 1-yard gain. I agree we could have expected more from the Browns' defense in this area given the track record of the Texans, but I don't think it was a bleak as you do. Anyway, my Number of the Week is .015, the Browns' achievement yesterday in a stat I just made up called "Offensive Yards Penalized Per Yard Gained". I don't know if this stat has ever been calculated before now, but basically it measures your penalties as a percentage of your gains. It could just as easily be done for defense or special teams. And while I don't know this for sure, I'm just going to go ahead and assume that .015 is the best Offensive YPPYG ever recorded in a single game by the New Browns franchise. Congratulations, boys!

Next week: The Browns return to Cleveland Browns Stadium, where they'll finally win, albeit by forfeit, after the Tennessee Titans are literally laughed off the field thanks to their new turquoise-on-mauve jerseys. We'll be here for you with another "Born and Raised" to cover all the ensuing controversy!

It's the "Eagle-Wilcots Honorary Throwaway Game of the Week", only on CBS!!! I'm pumped; how about you? The Texans are actually favored to win this game, which seems a little batty to me. I understand the Browns are in a perceived slump (key word, perceived), and I understand home field advantage, but I imagine there will be a lot of people with money on the Browns this week. Are the Texans as bad as their 0-6 record? Are they in fact the worst team in the league? Let's find out.

First, credit where credit is due. As usual, all statistics quoted below come from Football Outsiders' Week 8 DVOA reports (offense, defense, special teams). DVOA is explained in detail here.

Browns offense vs. Texans defense:

           CLE offense  HOU defense
total DVOA    -5.9%        36.8%
passing        2.5%        48.5%
rushing      -18.8%        26.4%

For the first time this season, the Browns' offensive DVOA has slipped into the below-average range, following last week's loss to the Lions. This has occurred in spite of the fact that in the last three games, they've faced what are now the #2, #15, and #3 ranked defenses in the NFL, by DVOA. This week, however, they will have their chance to look like heroes again, for Houston's defense is ranked dead last. And while the Texans' DVOA against the rush has been better than against the pass, it's still the 32nd-ranked rushing defense. The atrocious pass defense, ironically, is ranked higher, at 31st, thanks to the even more atrocious ineptitude of the 49ers' secondary. It's still true that the Browns have been better at passing than at rushing, but this week, frankly, they ought to have success no matter how they attack. Huge advantage: Browns

Texans offense vs. Browns defense:

           HOU offense  CLE defense
total DVOA   -24.5%        10.1%
passing      -47.4%        11.1%
rushing       -2.5%         9.2%

The Houston offense is not as miserable as their defense, but it's still pretty miserable. The offensive line has allowed a sack on 19% of all passing plays, which, I probably don't have to tell you, is the worst sack rate in the NFL. In large part because of that, David Carr has the third-worst passing DPAR among qualifiers (-17.3), so the 31st-ranked Houston passing attack shouldn't accomplish much. Carr does, however, have the third-best DPAR in rushing by a quarterback (5.7), and the Texans actually rank 16th in rushing DVOA and 12th in Adjusted Line Yards, so if the Texans buck the odds and actually get something going on offense, it's most likely to be on the ground. The best thing that could happen for the Browns would be to get an early lead so the Texans would be forced to pass. Advantage: Browns

Special teams matchups:

                       Browns  Texans
total DVOA              4.6%    5.6%
FG kicking              2.9     2.6
CLE kickoff vs. HOU KR  2.6     7.1
CLE KR vs. HOU kickoff  4.2    -1.3
CLE punt vs. HOU PR     0.4    -1.8
CLE PR vs. HOU punt    -0.3     5.0

This is actually a matchup of special teams powerhouses, as the 6th-ranked Browns unit takes on the 4th-ranked Texans unit (in Ryan Pontbriand's home town!). These numbers (which, other than "total DVOA", are actually DPAR totals) are subject to wild fluctuations early in the season, as I came to realize this week, after Josh Cribb's kickoff return for a touchdown increased the Browns' kick return DPAR a whole 6.2 points (not surprisingly, about the number of points a touchdown is worth). Thus, what had previously been the weakness of the Browns special teams is now the strength. At any rate, I wouldn't be surprised to see points scored via returns on Sunday. Houston has had a great kickoff return team, while the Browns have shown the ability to score on both types of returns. Overall, Slight advantage: Texans

To answer the question of whether Houston is really the worst team in the league, well, San Francisco has been much, much worse. But the Texans are second-worst in overall team DVOA, while the Browns are 23rd. I expect this game to have some actual scoring, for once, and I expect a lot of it to be on the part of the Browns. If the Browns can force Houston to have to air it out, forget about it. The Texans may have the home field advantage and the betting line on their side, but if I were a gambling man, I would unquestionably take the Browns.

In recent weeks, I have neglected to comment on a certain Browns-related issue even though it has been on my mind. Now I read this article by Michael David Smith in the New York Sun (registration required; it's also available here, sans hassle), so here I go.

The issue, in case you haven't heard, is that the expelled defensive line brigade of Courtney Brown, Gerard Warren, Ebenezer Ekuban, Michael Myers, and D-line coach Andre Patterson are doing a great job in their new jobs as Denver Broncos. Yes, that's right. So far, Quiet Storm, Big Money and company are doing a great job.

Denver currently ranks 5th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game and 13th in rushing yards allowed per carry. Compare that to last year, when the Browns, with almost the same players and the same defensive line coach, ranked 32nd and 21st in those categories, respectively. As we know, though, yardage totals can deceive. So, to be sure, Denver's defensive line ranks 6th in the NFL in Football Outsiders' Adjusted Line Yards, which measures rushing defense. And lest you think Denver holdover Trevor Pryce is responsible for all of this, consider the fact that the Broncos have been about as good at stopping runs to the right (Brown, Myers, Ekuban) and middle (Myers, Warren) as to the left (Pryce, Warren), according to ALY. Meanwhile, the 2004 Browns ranked 31st in that stat. To quote the Smith article:

Denver acquired the defensive line of an inferior team, one that finished dead last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed in 2004. What were the Broncos thinking? Whatever it was, it worked. The 5-1 Broncos are fifth in the league against the run, allowing only 88.3 yards a game. A better question than what Denver was thinking might be: What did Denver know that other teams didn’t?

To Browns fans, this last question should raise some serious eyebrows. Is it really possible that the collective ineffectiveness of Brown, Warren and the like was entirely the product of a poor scheme, bad luck, or both? Again, quoting Smith:

Brown, Warren, Ekuban, and Myers have excelled this year because all four of them can keep offensive linemen occupied and prevent them from blocking the linebackers — exactly what coordinator Larry Coyer’s scheme asks of them. Denver’s three linebackers--Ian Gold, Al Wilson and D.J. Williams--have great speed and can make tackles as long as they don’t have 325-pound guards in their faces. In Cleveland, Browns coach Butch Davis wanted Brown, Warren, Ekuban, and Myers to make the tackles themselves on running plays, which clearly isn’t their strong suit.

Okay, I'll buy that. I mean, we at Mistake by the Lake have been nothing if not extremely harsh on Gerard Warren in particular, his pathetic tackle totals being our Exhibit A (this was before we came to appreciate Football Outsiders). But we never said or knew anything about what kind of tackling he was expected to do; after all, DTs tend not to make many tackles in general. There's no denying that Gerard was immature and at times out of shape while he was in Cleveland, but I'm willing to concede the possibility that our judgment of him based on statistics and game observation was a little off.

While the Broncos didn't have much to lose by acquiring these four guys, as Smith points out, the Browns, having decided to switch to the 3-4, had nothing to lose by cutting the cord. The irony is that Romeo's defense would seem to be like Denver's in that the defensive linemen are not called on to make tackles. But the 3-4 defense has no use for "traditional" defensive tackles; it requires a specialist to play nose tackle. Thus, among Warren, Myers, Orpheus Roye, and Alvin "Mount" McKinley, it was either re-make them as nose tackles, re-make them as defensive ends, or get rid of them. At the very least, the Browns were going to have to get rid of some of them. They chose option B for Roye and McKinley and option C for the others.

I think this was wise. The "front seven" defensive positions, as they exist in the 3-4, do not translate to the 4-3, nor vice versa. The nose tackle, as I've said, doesn't exist in the 3-4. The defensive end in the 3-4 is something of a hybrid between the defensive tackle and a defensive end in the 4-3 (thus the conversions of Roye and McKinley). Some linebackers in the 3-4, then, are like hybrids between a linebacker and an end in the 4-3 (thus the conversion of Kenard Lang). But converting players is not as easy as bringing in guys who already fit the roles of the 3-4; thus Jason Fisk and Ethan Kelley.

For now, I remain convinced that letting go of Warren, Brown, Myers and Ekuban was not a mistake, even if they are more talented than we thought, and then even if the Browns had known that. I'm also not completely convinced that they are as good as the current statistics would have us believe. Maybe they are simply well-suited for the Denver scheme, but maybe this is a 7-game fluke. I'm going to need more time to decide.

First off, star cornerback Gary Baxter is officially out for the season with a torn pectoral muscle. Like all Browns injury news, it has both pros and cons. Let's do a little point, counterpoint:

Point: Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times favorite Leigh Bodden is now a starter!
Counterpoint: He'll have to share that spot with unfavorite Michael Lehan.

Point: Another obscure Brown gets signed to the active roster! This time it's Brandon "Redo" Rideau's turn.
Counterpoint: Brandon will wear #11, which is slightly less cool than the #1 he wore in the pre-season. Plus, he'll likely get very little playing time.

Point: Next season, with Baxter healthy, it'll be as if the Browns get another big-name free agent signing!
Counterpoint: There is now one less year on Baxter's contract until he is a free agent again.

Point: LB Clifton Smith, replacing Rideau, is introduced to Clevelanders as the newest member of the Browns' practice squad!
Counterpoint: There is never a downside to new members of the practice squad.

In an unrelated note, loyal reader Anonymous asked an intriguing question in the comments for this week's "Born and Raised":

When is it acceptable to jump on the Charlie Frye bandwagon?

Well, Anonymous, I fear I will regret this answer when my emotions get the best of me later in the season, but I believe the correct answer to be "2006". For every Ben Roethlisberger there are 1,000 Kyle Ortons. Lest we forget that the Steelers had a talented offense surrounding Roethlisberger, and he was forced into action due to a Tommy Maddox injury.

I'm not sure anymore whether playing a rookie QB stunts his development as common wisdom holds, but why take a chance? With each passing day, this season looks more and more like a lost cause. Ironically enough, I'm sure you'll hear both "Play Frye, he needs game experience" and "Don't play Frye, it will hurt his development." I say start Trent Dilfer for the rest of the season just to be safe and to avoid a stupid, unnecessary "quarterback controversy". Charlie Brown will still be in Cleveland next season, so relax.

Every day I listen to Romeo Crennel's press conferences on the Browns website. Believe me when I tell you that in the week leading up to yesterday's Browns-Lions clash, the Cleveland media had very much made up their minds about what was wrong with the Browns offense and what the Browns offense needed to do against Detroit. The problem: not enough rushing. The solution: pound, pound, pound. Well, folks, the Browns pounded, pounded, pounded, to the tune of 118 yards and a 5.4 rushing average--both season highs--and yet it was one of the worst offensive performances we've seen from the Cleveland Browns since... well, since they gained only 17 total yards last season against Buffalo. Nevertheless, it was bad. The offense scored three freaking points!

This relates nicely to a discussion that's been taking place recently on our blog. In the comments to a recent post, I explained in detail just why it is that Alex and I (and stats analysts like those at Football Outsiders) are always advocating the pass and shunning the run. The short answer is: passing well leads to point scoring; rushing well does not necessarily.

Consider this summary of the Browns' rushing performance through the first six games of 2005:

         rush    rush    rush  off. pts
         att.    yds     avg.   scored
vs CIN    18      95     5.3      13
at GB     23      55     2.4      26
at IND    23      75     3.3       6
vs CHI    22      76     3.5      20
at BAL    18      70     3.9       3
vs DET    22     118     5.4       3

When the Browns rushed their best, they scored their fewest. To add insult to injury, when they rushed their worst, they scored their most. Keep in mind that in five of those games, the Browns were facing one of the NFL's best defenses, and granted, this is too small a sample size to draw any sweeping conclusions, but at the very least we can say that the Browns succeed not on the basis of their running game. Now consider a similar summary of the passing game:

         pass    pass   yds/   off. pts
         att.    yds    catch   scored
vs CIN    43     278    10.7      13
at GB     32     336    16.0      26
at IND    33     208     9.5       6
vs CHI    37     218     9.5      20
at BAL    34     147     9.2       3
vs DET    23      73     7.3       3

Now that would seem like a nice correlation. The better they pass, the more they score. Which leads me to yesterday's game. The defense played fine; they didn't face much of a challenge, Garcia shenanigans notwithstanding. The special teams were pretty good, Richardson shanks notwithstanding. The rushing offense was stellar. But Trent Dilfer and the passing attack were downright miserable. Part of that was the offensive line, which gave up sacks in crucial situations. Part of that was Dilfer, who threw three interceptions, two of which were his fault. Part of it was the stellar Lions secondary. And part of it was the receivers, who either didn't get open, or, in at least one excruciating case, dropped easy passes. Next Sunday's game against the Texans can't come quickly enough.

On to your regular items.

Play of the Week

Alex says: Joshua "MTV" Cribbs finally making good on the potential he showed in the preseason and returning a kickoff for a touchdown. Cribbs' play is legitimate material for Play of the Week, to be sure, but the dearth of contenders is (almost) shocking. The defense managed to come away with one turnover, on a Mike Williams fumble, but it was barely due to effort on their part. However, something should be said for two Honorable Mentions:

1. On the second play of the third quarter, Reuben Droughns slipped on a toss left and fumbled the ball. Detroit clearly recovered it, there is no doubt from replays. Yet, in the scrum, an offensive lineman (Joe Andruzzi, I believe) managed to wrest the ball away from the Lions.
2. Lions cornerback Dre Bly managed to injure himself by running into Earl Holmes. Reports after the game state the injury as a "dislocated wrist," but rest assured, he got hit in the groin. Yes, you heard it here, Earl Holmes nailed Bly right in the family jewels.

Corey says: I have to agree. Not about the family jewels--about the Play of the Week. Not that I don't believe the part about the family jewels. The only big play the offense really had was a 30-yard run by Droughns that got the Browns to their own 40-yard line, on a drive that ended in a punt, so honestly, it has to be the kickoff return touchdown. And in case the suspense is killing you, I'll blow the surprise now and let you know that both Alex and I are going to select the kickoff return as our Special Teams Moment of the Week, too. It's repetitive, but that's the way the game went. One huge play.

Player of the Week

Alex says: Because he's swept Play of the Week and will sweep Special Teams Moment of the Week for only one great play, I don't have the nerve to name Josh Cribbs the Player of the Week too. In his stead, I honor running back Reuben Droughns--who gained over 100 yards, okay, 100 on the dot, for the first time as a Cleveland Brown. He did so in less than 20 carries, which is impressive. Not to knock Reuben, but the offensive line's strong suit is definitely run-blocking. That sackless streak to begin the season is looking more and more like a Marty Cordova-sized aberration.

Corey says: Alex, I think you overstate the part about the offensive line's strong suit just a little, but that's a discussion for another category. My Player of the Week is Leigh Bodden. He was the man often responsible for covering Detroit's only legitimate receiving threat, rookie Mike Williams (and no, Leigh was not the one covering Williams on his 49-yard reception at the end of the first quarter). To the best that I can gather from the official play-by-play, Jeff Garcia was 4-for-5 for 38 yards throwing at Bodden, and 7-for-7 for 47 yards throwing at Daylon McCutcheon. Consider the fact that Leigh had to come in unexpectedly after a Gary Baxter injury and that he hadn't even been in uniform for many weeks due to a depth chart crunch, and I'd say it was a pretty good day for one of my favorite players. Plus, Leigh participated on special teams, finally, where we know from two years' experience that he truly excels.

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"This is the new Browns organization; we want to win some games; we want to make some plays; and we want to come out of the shadow of the past and step into the future." --Braylon Edwards

This leads me to wonder which past is casting a shadow on the 2005 Browns. If it's the 1999-2004 Browns, let me assure you, Mr. Edwards, fans are chomping at the bit to forget about those six seasons. You'd be surprised how quickly those memories will be gone as long as you and your teammates don't embarrass yourselves. The other option is the Browns of the Kosarian variety. To escape their shadow, you either need to (a) win the AFC Championship, or (b) wait until all the fans alive during the mid-80's die, which won't be for another 60 years or so.

Corey says:

"It's just one mistake of many. It's hard to look back and blame one mistake or one guy for a reason why you lose the game." --Trent Dilfer

Trent is referring to Antonio Bryant's crucial drop of a long, well-thrown pass on 3rd-and-16 with about 7 minutes left in the game. It forced the Browns to punt, and though the punt was downed at the 3-yard line, the Browns didn't get the ball back until there were 2 minutes remaining. I, like many, thought back on that play as I moped back to my car and badly wanted to kick something Antonio Bryant-shaped. But Dilfer is right; some blame ought to go to the ones responsible for putting the Browns in a 3rd-and-16 situation to begin with. Even more ought to go to those responsible for having scored only 10 points up to that point. What a joke.

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: Ironically, the weak link on special teams had been the Browns kickoff return team coming into this week. This week's moment is a play that didn't involve namesake Ryan Pontbriand: Cribbs' aforementioned touchdown. But perhaps the most unexpected happening on those teams that are so special was the lack of a long Dennis Northcutt punt return nullified by penalty. I would've even accepted a kick-off return called back for penalty.

Corey says: Duh. The thing that struck me about Cribbs' touchdown return was the fact that he needed only one block to take it to the house. After the initial block, it was basically a footrace the rest of the way. This suggests to me that the return was a function of poor Lions coverage rather than a well-executed Browns blocking scheme; nevertheless, I think Cribbs deserves a lot of credit for a fine display of blazing speed.

Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: Backup middle linebacker and now two-time winner Orlando Ruff, #94, who seems to be everywhere. He had a hand in 10 tackles, which was a high for the game. He also downed Kyle Richardson's only good punt on the 3-yard line during the fourth quarter. And once again, for seemingly the eleventy-billionth time, the Obscure Brown of the Week has a funny middle name. Orlando's is "Bernarda", which, I suppose, is a female form of Bernard. Of course, we all sorely miss Eric Lebron Westmoreland, who can never be replaced both on the field and in our hearts.

Corey says: Backup offensive tackle Kirk Chambers, #65, who maybe could use a little cheering up since he just missed his first chance to start in an NFL game. Ryan Tucker was listed as questionable but played the whole game despite (wait for it...) a chipped bone in his neck. Ouch. As for Chambers, I remember a play in Green Bay where he lined up as an eligible-receiving third tackle (on which the Browns scored a touchdown), but other than that, I can't say I remember him ever getting into a game. Hang in there, buddy--if there's one thing we do well here in Cleveland, it's offensive line injuries!

Fashion of the Week

Alex says: How about a #44 SUGGS because it will be oh-so-hilarious a few years down the road, much like how a Travis Prentice is now. Suggs seems to be mapping out a Dajuan Wagner-type career for himself: severely injury-prone, initially incites much excitement from fans despite bad stats, and (this is projected) eventually ruled a loser and run out of town. Of course, (and now I will hedge my bets) Suggs could easily return from injury and make me look quite the fool.

Corey says: I choose the #31 MINNIFIELD, in honor of the announcement this week of the four new inductees to the Browns Legends Club. Frank Minnifield, the consensus second-best cornerback in franchise history, will represent the 80's and 90's era in this year's class, alongside G Jim Ray Smith, QB Dr. Frank Ryan and DT Jerry Sherk. He is also often credited as the creator of the Dawg Pound, so if anyone out there owns a Minnifield jersey, wear it proudly and tell 'em Corey sent you.

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: FOX color commentator Brian Baldinger. Firstly, I choose Baldinger for his surprising talent for annoying me. Secondly, he called Cleveland Browns Stadium "Paul Brown Stadium" which is simply inexcusable and insulting. Thirdly, he and partner Ron Pitts were fawning over Jeff Garcia to an extent I didn't think possible. Not that Garcia played poorly, I'd say he played well--but he's no Otto Graham. Fourthly, coming out of a commercial in the first half, the cameras showed a seagull landing on the field and eating a hot dog bun. How hilarious! Anyways, Baldinger made the joke of what a great "pick-up" by the bird. Very clever, Brian. He then compounds the mistake by trying to segue into an ensuing third-down try for the Lions by saying that the gull eating a hot dog bun is exactly what Detroit wants to do: "pick-up" the first down!

Corey says: In the proud tradition of just naming players from the opposing team that I don't like, I'll go with Jeff Garcia. Thanks for burning so many bridges on your way out of town! Has anyone noticed how Garcia does not appear in public without a covering over his head? Even during pre-game warmups he wears a baseball hat. Alex surmises that he's ashamed of his bald head. I say, be like Trent Dilfer and flaunt your baldness. It might distract people from your extremely ugly face.

Number of the Week

Alex says: 2.4, or the average yards gained by the Browns per pass play (including sacks). This number rightfully reflects how bad Trent Dilfer played, but let us not forget the um... "contribution" of the offensive line. As I mentioned in the comments for Player of the Week, their run-blocking capabilities are more than satisfactory. The pass-blocking? Yeah, not so much. Led by "Captain Penalty" L.J. Shelton, Trent Dilfer was often afforded little time in the pocket--a situation not seen since, well, every season since 1999.

Corey says: .583, or what the Browns' winning percentage ought to have been after six weeks (ie: not counting this last game) according to Football Outsiders' Estimated Wins. At the end of Week 6, the Browns, with a record of 3.5 and 2.5, would have ranked 11th in the NFL. Granted, this is not a measure of the team's true level of ability--DVOA attempts to measure that--rather, a tool that takes both DVOA and something called the "Forest Index" to forecast the number of wins a team ought to have based on their performance in high-leverage situations, or something... okay, I don't really understand it. Nonetheless, I find it interesting, and although it seems slightly silly to think of the Browns as 11th-best, I think it affirms a sense we've all been getting: that the Browns have been in most of their games and very easily could have won a few more.

Next week: The Browns journey to the land of Texas to enjoy their second bye week. As sure as David Carr is to be sacked at least 25 times, we'll be right here to provide you your weekly dose of "Born and Raised"! Stay tuned!

Okay, you know the drill by now. Here's how the Browns and Lions match up according to Football Outsiders' DVOA. All these stats come from this week's DVOA reports (offense, defense, special teams). Detailed explanations of DVOA can be found here.

Browns offense vs. Lions defense:

           CLE offense  DET defense
total DVOA     2.9%       -14.3%
passing       17.1%       -22.9%
rushing      -20.5%        -3.7%

There is this overwhelming agreement in the media lately that the Browns offense is struggling because they don't run the ball enough (or well enough). It's true that the Browns don't run the ball well; the fact remains, however, that the Browns offense, despite playing horribly against Baltimore, has still performed reasonably well. It's so easy to forget that they've faced a veritable murderer's row of top defenses. Green Bay was nothing special, but the defenses of Cincy, Indy, Chicago, and Baltimore are all in the top 11 in DVOA. Unfortunately, Detroit's defense is ranked #7, so it doesn't get any easier (and by the way, it really doesn't get any easier later in the year). If the Browns offense appears to struggle once again, don't get too down. As for a plan of attack, the Lions have been better at stopping the pass than stopping the run. Of course, the Browns have been consistently awful at running the ball. However you slice it, Advantage: Lions

Lions offense vs. Browns defense:

           DET offense  CLE defense
total DVOA   -34.7%         7.0%
passing      -51.5%         4.2%
rushing      -15.1%         9.8%

While the offense has faced a slew of top defenses and is therefore probably a little underrated, the Browns defense is enjoying a temporary string of offensively-challenged opponents (CHI, BAL, DET, HOU) and is therefore probably a little overrated. The Lions have the second-worst offense in the NFL, according to DVOA. I fully expect the mediocre Browns secondary to own Joey Harrington, Jeff Garcia, or whoever they plan to start. No Detroit receiver has a DPAR above 0, and despite all the so-called studs they've drafted, former Brown Kevin Johnson remains their most productive wide receiver with a -1.4 DPAR and a DVOA of -21.1%. That's horrible. Advantage: Browns

Special teams matchups:

                       Browns  Lions
total DVOA              1.6%   -1.3%
FG kicking              2.5    -0.1
CLE kickoff vs. DET KR  1.2    -0.3
CLE KR vs. DET kickoff -2.0    -1.8
CLE punt vs. DET PR     1.0     1.3
CLE PR vs. DET punt     0.2    -1.3

For all the talk about the misadventures of the Browns punt return team, at least we know they're capable of creating a big play. The kickoff return unit has actually been worse, as Josh Cribbs and company have come up with nothing. This was a problem for the Browns last year, if I recall. I guess it means they're due. Beyond that, the Browns have done slightly better than the Lions on special teams. Slight advantage: Browns

In conclusion, I apologize if I sound like a broken record. By a coincidence, for the third week in a row, the Browns face a bad offense and a good defense. So for the third week in a row, I would say a low-scoring game is in order. This is ironic because the Browns offense has been better than average and the defense has been worse. In the coming weeks, we'll see some opponents that fit different molds (HOU, TEN, PIT) so the game previews will become more interesting, I swear. As for this Sunday's game, I can make no promises, but if I were a gambling man, I'd take the Browns.

John Hollinger, who once belonged to the "Prospectus" family but now writes for ESPN.com, writes an annual basketball reference book with statistics and projections for nearly every player in the NBA. Pro Basketball Forecast is definitely on par with the Baseball Prospectus series of books--which is amazing considering about 15 people write BP while Hollinger writes PBF alone.

Firstly, I suggest anyone intrigued by advanced basketball metrics purchase Hollinger's book (or subscribe to ESPN Insider, I noticed they've posted his player comments), it is entertaining, education, and easy for beginners (Oh, buy Dean Oliver's book too, it's the Bible of basketball statistics).

I suppose you're all interested in what Mr. Hollinger has to say about the future of Cavaliers Basketball Presented By Cub Cadet. Essentially, he likes the new front office/coaching combination and says the Cavs did very well with their enormous cap space this off-season. Donyell Marshall "might be the single most underrated player in the league right now." Larry Hughes benefits greatly from the rule changes made prior to last season (he relies on his quickness to avoid the new ticky-tack fouls). Damon Jones is more versatile than I ever imagined, for "in Milwaukee [in 2003-2004] he led the league in Assist Ratio, but in Miami his role changed from distributor to shooting specialist and he made the transition seamlessly." Given that, I'm inclined to say start a backcourt of Hughes, Jones, and LeBron. None is a true PG wizard, but all three have good size, are versatile, and would likely tear up defenses.

I'm very excited for this NBA season, and that is in part fueled by my delusions of the Cavaliers being smart about the resources they have. I've gone on and on about him before, but seriously people, Ira Newble needs to be benched. But he'll get his minutes; Eric Snow will probably start; Luke Jackson might waste away on the bench; and Sasha Pavlovic might try dribbling again. And finally, please don't trade Drew Gooden. As Hollinger writes, the Cavaliers "should be careful not to make the same mistake Orlando did."



P.S. I love LeBron, you love LeBron, but the prospect of alternate blue jerseys is revolting. When Cavaliers Basketball Presented by Cub Cadet switched to its current Wine & Golds prior to the 2003-2004 season, the management at least gave passing mention to team history--so it wouldn't be a completely transparent cash grab. This time... well, it is. Not to mention that it looks like a Broncos jersey, or something equally ugly.

Browns fans, I believe we can all agree that this week's effort against the hated Baltimore Ravens was unsatisfactory. The Browns were thoroughly outgained on the ground, through the air, and on special teams. All this came despite the Ravens' special teams being not particularly special and their offense being, well, having been the worst in the league. Throw in the fact that Anthony Wright, with his career 64.5 QB Rating, was manning the helm for the Baltimorons--and things certainly looked to be in the Browns' favor heading into the game.

Since I am contractually obligated to paint a sunny picture of the Browns, let me point out a few encouraging notes from Sunday's loss:

• William Green now has nine carries and three receptions in the young 2005 season, with zero fumbles!
• The Ravens sacked Trent Dilfer a mere four times during the game. He dropped back to pass 35-odd times during the game--meaning the defense brought him down on about 12% of passing plays. The Browns sacked Anthony Wright once on 32 passing plays, or 3% of the time. And, as we all know, Indians Hall of Famer Earl Averill wore #3 while the hated Terry Bradshaw wore #12.
• Despite two touchbacks, punter Kyle Richardson still averaged 50.3 yards per kick, which is pretty good, not great.
• Human Phil Dawson appeared in his fifth straight game of the season, and is 9 for 9 on FGs this season.
• First-round draft pick Braylon Edwards didn't suit up, for a second consecutive week. If he doesn't play again for the rest of the year, the Browns essentially have three first-round draft picks in 2006! (See: Butch Davis' comments re: Kellen Winslow injury in Week 2 of 2004)

I realize that these little tidbits may not lift your spirits as much as you had hoped--but the Browns are still just 2-3; winless against the AFC but undefeated against the NFC North. And guess what, folks! Next week "Big Ol'" Simon Fraser and the rest of the Browns travel all the way to Cleveland Browns Stadium in beautiful Cleveland, Ohio to take on Shawn Bryson and the Detroit Lions of the aforementioned and thoroughly Browns-dominated National Football Conference North.

Play of the Week

Alex says: Gary Baxter's interception late in the first half. The Ravens were leading 13-0 and threatening to score again on a 2nd-and-5 at the Cleveland 13-yard line. At the time, GBax's pick seemed to swing the momentum finally to the Browns, as they had finally exposed Wright as a QB-imposter. The offense, though, dutifully fumbled the ball right back to the 'morons, whose Matt Stover soon kicked his third and final field goal of the afternoon. The Browns' offense definitely improved in the second half--but the hope of a win was mostly gone. This turnover had the potential to lead to a Cleveland victory.

Corey says: Trent Dilfer's 29-yard completion to Dennis Northcutt on the right sideline late in the third quarter. It was the longest gain the Browns offense made all day. They had been backed up to their own 3-yard line following a penalty on a punt return, only to be bailed out on the very first play. On the one hand, I can't help but feel it was a dumb decision on Dilfer's part, because Northcutt was like quadruple-covered, but on the other hand, the ball fell perfectly into Dennis' arms. Beautiful.

Player of the Week

Alex says: The man who deserves credit for my selection for Play of the Week is also the Player of the Week--no, not Gary Baxter, but Andra Davis. Firstly, on the interception, Andra stepped in front of the pass and knocked the ball into the air, allowing Baxter to pick it off. Secondly, although Chester Taylor mostly showcased the Browns' faulty tackling, Andra led the charge on stopping Baltimore's favorite cocaine dealer, with a game-leading nine tackles and four assists.

Corey says: Hmm, nobody seemed to have much of a game this week. I guess I'll go with Dennis Northcutt, whose 60 receiving yards were the most he's had this year. There was, of course, the above-mentioned catch in double coverage. He also had a good day returning punts, even though, once again, his returns were foiled by meaningless Browns penalties.

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"Not a whole lot of positive to take back after this game other than, you know, we've got to hit the grindstone this week and get back to the way Browns football, know how we play." --Michael Lehan

Besides becoming completely unintelligible at the end of his interview, this quote isn't particularly interesting or controversial. Instead, I quote Lehan because I noticed he shaved off his signature dreadlocks, finally separating himself from other dreadlocked cornerbacks like Mike McKenzie. Also, apparently Lehan himself has a lot of work to do after being the Brown specially picked to waste a great punt return by Northcutt with a penalty.

Corey says:

"As far as the game was concerned, we did too many things that caused us to lose the game." --Romeo Crennel

I couldn't have summarized it better myself. In fact, I would even go so far as to say that, in the future, the Browns should try to do more things that cause them to win the game.

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: As mentioned in this week's introduction, Human Phil Dawson again was perfect on the day. This is not totally unexpected, though. Last season against the Ravens, Phil was four for four on FGs and appeared in every game until Week 11. So, if 2005 is to be a repeat of 2004 for Dawson, look out for Week 11 against Miami. Anyway, the RPHSTMOTW is Dawson's 24-yarder closing the Browns' first drive of the second half.

Corey says: Ugh. There's not much to choose from this week. I actually think I'll go with the opening kickoff. Yeah, that's right. It was a touchback, which is nothing special, except that Phil Dawson does not typically get much distance on his kicks. Our joke about the Two Phil Dawsons started last year when we noticed that in most games, Phil seemed capable of accuracy or distance, but never both. Perhaps this trend has been reversed, with his kickoff average currently the highest it's been in his entire career.

Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: FB Corey McIntyre. Although he originally signed into the NFL with the Eagles in 2002, Corey is finally getting some playing time with the Browns this season, albeit on special teams. He has a few tackles this season, but is mostly known for boneheaded penalties nullifying good punt returns by Dennis Northcutt. However, against the Ravens, McIntyre had no penalties, one tackle and even returned a short kickoff for 14 yards. Also of note, Corey's two daughters are named Jacayla and Aundrea.

Corey says: I'll go for the truly obscure this week since no one really distingushed himself on the field. How about backup offensive tackle Nat Dorsey, #74, a 322-pound youngster for whom the Browns traded Melvin Fowler. Nat has the distinction of being the second-fattest player on the team, behind only L.J. Shelton, who weighs in at 345 pounds, which is incidentally also the weight of the new Hummer H3.

Fashion of the Week

Alex says: #58 TAYLOR. Why? I'm not sure, but something must be special about Ben Taylor considering that the Browns have stocked his jersey in their team shops for about three seasons now. Especially since the Browns didn't offer up "ANDRA DAVIS" until this season. Fortunately, it doesn't appear that those Ben Taylors are flying off the racks. I can't recall seeing many at a Browns game. You're more likely to see a #11 DETMER.

Corey says: I don't know about that; I've seen quite a few Ben Taylor jerseys around town. Anyway, I'll go with the #11 DETMER, though I can't say I've seen one in a long, long time. It's a good, solid comedy throwback. Lord knows Browns fans have plenty of those to choose from.

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: Maybe the most popular murderer on the eastern seaboard, Ray Lewis takes home his first ever "Idiot of the Week" honors, in what is sure to be many. Ray waltzed his way to the prize with his ridiculous-looking "kicking and flailing" dance, numerous late hits on unsuspecting Browns, unbelievable ugliness and foul stench, overratedness, and finally, general cheating.

Corey says: Actually, Alex, if you recall, "Idiot of the Week" used to be "Cheater of the Week", an honor that went to Ray Lewis an unprecedented 7 times last season. Throw in your kind words above, and the kind words I'm about to offer, and that makes 9 times, in 22 editions of "Born and Raised". Yes, I name Ray Lewis my Idiot of the Week, for unsportsmanlike conduct and general idiocy. I consider it a blessing that I don't have to watch the kicking and flailing dance until at least 11 weeks from now, and possibly not even then.

Number of the Week

Alex says: 2.5, or the average yards per carry for the felonious Jamal Lewis. Of course, Chester Taylor was much more productive rushing for Baltimore, but I would just like to highlight the YPC for Lewis chronologically against the Browns starting with his 295-yard performance in 2003: 9.8, 9.3, 2.9, 3.7, and 2.5. Using my graphing calculator and some simple linear regression, expect Jamal to average -.5 yards per carry in Week 17 when these teams next meet.

Corey says: 196, the number of Dennis Northcutt punt return yards that have been nullified due to penalties so far this season, 41 of which came this week. On the four plays that make up that 196-yard total, the penalized Browns were Corey McIntyre, Frisman Jackson, Sean Jones, William Green (whose penalty was one of two and therefore declined), and Michael Lehan, who yesterday cost the Browns a 32-yard return late in the game which would have put them on the Baltimore 34-yard line. I think you'll join me in hoping that this trend does not continue.

Next week: In a nearly exact duplicate of this preseason's Battle of the Great Lakes, the Browns defeat the Detroit Lions 21-13 on a last-second TD throw from Charlie Frye to Braylon Edwards. We'll be here to tell you all about the great performances of Ivory McCoy, Justin Kurpeikis, and Lance Moore, on another thrilling "Born and Raised"!

Let the battle for not-last place begin in earnest! In case you missed last Friday, we are now doing game previews for each Browns game based entirely on Football Outsiders' DVOA statistics. This week, the Browns take on the hated Baltimorons, and for the first time in the history of the rivalry, you could argue that the Browns deserve to be the favorites. We all remember how Ray Lewis' blatant pass interference on the game's final play cost the Browns a win last year in Baltimore, so a little revenge this time around would be extra sweet.

All of the stats below are taken from the Week 6 DVOA reports for offense, defense, and special teams. Click here if you want a truly detailed explanation of DVOA. I remind you once again that negative values are bad for offense but good for defense.

Browns offense vs. Ravens defense:

           CLE offense  BAL defense
total DVOA    11.6%        -4.4%
passing       34.9%         6.0%
rushing      -27.3%       -16.1%

The vaunted Ravens defense has been solid but not spectacular--recent rumors of their demise are greatly exaggerated due to the 35 points scored by the Lions last Sunday (which were mostly set up by field position, etc.). Because the Ravens excel at stopping the run while the Browns are the third-worst rushing team by DVOA, don't expect Reuben Droughns to do much of anything. The Ravens' secondary, however, has been below-average, and the Browns passing attack is now eighth-best by DVOA, so unless they waste their time trying to "establish the run", the Browns should be able to move downfield. Root for them to pass as often as possible. Slight advantage: Browns

Ravens offense vs. Browns defense:

           BAL offense  CLE defense
total DVOA   -24.3%         8.5%
passing      -19.4%         8.4%
rushing      -30.5%         8.5%

The Browns defense has not been great by any stretch of the imagination, but for the second week in a row, they face a horrible offense. Last week, it was the secondary's chance to look good, facing the worst passing offense in the NFL. This week, it will be the front seven who get to look like they know what they're doing, as Baltimore ranks 31st in the NFL in rushing DVOA. The battle between the Ravens O-line and the Browns D-line should be interesting; each unit ranks dead last in the NFL in Football Outsiders' Adjusted Line Yards. The fact that the Browns defense does so poorly in ALY but does marginally less poorly in rushing DVOA suggests to me that their strength lies in the linebacking corps. In other words, opposing O-lines do well in setting up their initial blocks, but the opposing rushers fail to advance beyond the second wave of defenders. It is also entirely possible that the Browns D-line's poor ALY total is influenced by the 3-4 alignment, in which there may be fewer defenders on the line of scrimmage. Regardless, Advantage: Browns

Special teams matchups:

                       Browns  Ravens
total DVOA              2.9%   -5.2%
FG kicking              2.3    -3.9
CLE kickoff vs. BAL KR  0.8    -0.4
CLE KR vs. BAL kickoff -1.7    -1.1
CLE punt vs. BAL PR     3.5     0.8
CLE PR vs. BAL punt    -0.9    -2.5

The Pontbriand Patrol outranks its competition in almost every category. The Ravens are particularly weak in field goal kicking, as Modell-franchise lifer Matt Stover has gone an uninspiring 4 for 7. Neither team has had much in the way of a return game, but once again, we've seen what the Browns punt return unit can do, so take their -0.9% rating with a grain of salt. Advantage: Browns

Even though the Browns' clear strength is their offense, when you play a team with a solid defense and a weak offense, as was the case last week, you can expect a low-scoring game. That said, I've still given the Browns the edge in all three phases of the game. The Ravens may have the home-field advantage, for what it's worth, but if I were a gambling man, I'd definitely take the Browns.

For a weekday series in September 2005, holding on to the AL wild card lead and with a legitimate shot at winning the Central, playing against a fellow wild card contender (the A's), the red-hot Indians drew a paltry 21,000 fans per game to Jacobs Field. Yet somehow, for a weekday series in September 2002, having firmly cemented a third-place finish and with little chance of reaching .500, playing against the fourth-worst team in the AL (the Blue Jays), the then-rebuilding Indians were able to draw well over 26,000 fans per game. In fact, despite the obvious disparity in team quality, the 2002 Indians consistently drew more fans than the 2005 team---about 600,000 more in all.

To be fair, the total 2005 attendance represents an upgrade over the 2003 and 2004 figures, but only slightly. The 2005 Tribe, despite posting one of the best winning percentages of the Jacobs Field era, still brought in the third-worst attendance total since 1994.

So in an attempt to answer the question of just why the 2002 Indians out-drew the 2005 Indians, I decided to compile some attendance data. Let's begin by taking a look at the game-by-game numbers for each of the seasons since the John Hart bubble burst (click on any graph for better detail):



2002 was the season when the Tribe started 11-1 and everyone briefly thought the loss of Robbie Alomar would be to them what the loss of Alex Rodriguez was to the 2001 Mariners. Despite the hot streak, though, early attendance was mediocre (which we now know is common in April due to cold or rainy weather)--and at the time, this was perceived to be a catastrophe since we were all accustomed to selling out every game. Attendance improved over the first half, however, reaching a peak in late June. Ironically, it was on June 27th (game #38 on the graph above) that Bartolo Colon was traded and it became painfully clear to everyone that the '02 Tribe was going nowhere. This didn't seem to affect attendance in the least. In fact, if we had only 2002 to go on, we might conclude that within a single season, home attendance has little to do with team quality.



In 2003, the Indians were in a clear rebuilding mode from beginning to end and there were never any illusions of contending. It is not surprising, then, that the 2003 attendance is the worst we've ever seen at Jacobs Field. The pattern of peaking in late June still holds true, but the overall drop-off from the year before was severe.



The 2004 data gives us our first clue that team quality can indeed create attendance changes within a single season. That year, the Tribe rose to challenge Minnesota for the division lead in mid-August, peaking on August 14th when they were within 1 game of the Twins (game #60 on the graph above) before falling back to Earth. We can see that the 2004 graph looks eerily similar to the 2003 one except that there's a spike in late August. No coincidence, if you ask me.



Which brings us to this year. With the Tribe's slow beginning, the 2005 attendance starts off looking like previous seasons, and in fact a new record was set for the worst single-game attendance in Jacobs Field history. The graph then builds to its customary late-June peak and even appears to start its second-half decline, only, some time around early August, when the possibility of a playoff berth began entering people's minds, attendance improved. There were still good days and bad days, but the bad days weren't as bad as they had been in the spring, and the good days were near sell-outs.

We can certainly attribute this shift to the improved play of the team, but still it doesn't seem like enough. Why didn't the Indians sell out every game? In 2000, the Indians found themselves in a similar predicament (trailing the division leader but still competing for a playoff spot) and they managed to sell out every game then. The 2000 Indians weren't even as good a team as the 2005 version. What was different?

I can offer two explanations. The first involves the nature of ticket sales. I'm not sure exactly what percentage of total sales are represented by season ticket holders, nor am I certain what percentage of single-game tickets are purchased before as opposed to during the season, but regardless, the tickets that are sold prior to the start of the season account for a huge portion of the total. And if there's any relationship between winning percentage and ticket sales, when it comes to those particular tickets sales, the only possible relationship would be with the previous season's winning percentage. Thus, while the 2005 ticket sales were hinged on the underwhelming 2004 campaign, the 2000 sales were tied to the monster 1999 season, and the surprising 2002 ticket sales were tied to the successful 2001 season.

Here is a graph that loosely compares home attendance to the Indians' winning percentage over the entire Jacobs Field era (with the strike-shortened '94 and '95 seasons prorated to a full 81 games):



We can vaguely recognize a delayed reaction to team winning percentage on the part of attendance. In other words, the team quality started to tank long before the attendance did. Similarly, the attendance reached its late-90's peak long after the Indians reached theirs. If we imagine what this graph would look with 2006 included, we might expect the winning percentage to hold more-or-less steady but the attendance to increase. Thus the sudden improvement in team quality, which took place between '04 and '05, would be represented in terms of ticket sales a year later.

The second explanation is the more ominous one. It involves the local economy. Here is a graph that loosely compares home attendance to the unemployment rate for the Greater Cleveland Area (which I'll use as a proxy for "status of the local economy"):



We can definitely observe an inverse relationship here. The question is, is this a coincidence or not? After all, the Indians' rise to power coincided almost exactly with the improvement of the Cleveland economy. Now, you can argue that the construction of Jacobs Field played a significant role in the economic upturn. You can also argue that the construction of Jacobs Field had something to do with the improvement of the team, so perhaps it's no coincidence. I tend to believe, however, that the improvement of the team had little to do with the slight increase in payroll and more to do with the success of John Hart's drafting and trading of youngsters, which brought most of the stars of the 90's to the Indians. It wasn't until much later that the payroll increased significantly (or that the payroll began to have much of a relationship with team quality).

There is also the economic downturn that began some time around 2000. Is it a coincidence that, between 2000 and 2003, the economy tanked and Indians attendance fell to a new low? And that, between 2003 and 2005, both held more-or-less steady? I am certainly willing to buy the argument that poor Joe Indians Fan would be less likely to take his family to the ballpark now that he's working two jobs, or has to worry about how he'll pay the electric bill. (Of course, Cavaliers attendance has improved in recent years, and Browns attendance has remained perfect, though you could argue that those two phenomena happened for completely different reasons.)

So the big question is, what will happen to attendance next year? If you believe the first explanation--the one about delayed reactions to team success--then we'll see a dramatic improvement in home attendance in 2006. If you believe the second explanation, provided the economy doesn't magically improve, then we'll see another year of disappointing totals. It's more likely a combination of both, meaning we'll see an improvement but not a dramatic one. I think it's important to admit to ourselves that we'll probably never again see an entire season of sellouts, even if the Indians won the World Series. The combination of events that led to the consecutive sellout streak of the late 90's was once-in-a-lifetime rare. The economy hit a peak, the team was competitive for the first time in 40 years, and the Browns suddenly vacated Cleveland. I think a reasonable goal for 2006 attendance would be 2.5 million, which would at least bring us back to 2002 levels. 3 million would be possible, but it would take some remarkable circumstances.

Here are some more images from our day at the stadium.

This is us getting ready to leave. Me, our dad, Alex, and our confused friend Shannon are wearing "Andra Davis", "Gardocki", "Pontbriand", and "Urlacher" jerseys, respectively:



We got there extra early and headed over to the Dawg Pound to see if we could meet some of our favorite Browns legends, like the Bone Lady:



...and Big Dawg (here unmasked--gasp!), alongside his "little buddy":



Here are Big Dawg, Bone Lady, some weirdo Bears fan, and some kids:



Eventually the game started. Here's proof:



We were lucky enough to be invited up to the Browns radio booth for much of the first quarter (thanks to winning a charity auction). It was quite a thrill to see Jim Donovan and Doug Dieken in action. Unlike the Indians radio booth, the Browns booth was crowded and hectic. Seated at the window were Dieken, Donovan's daughter (who helps out; I'm not sure with what), spotter Paul Rado (who watches the action more closely with binoculars), and statistician Dick Goddard (the weather man from FOX 8--yes, he does the stats for Browns broadcasts, as he has done since 1968). Donovan himself remains directly behind them, standing throughout, pacing back and forth. Behind and above him sits producer Ray Davis.

In this shot you can (sort of) see Davis, Dieken, Donovan, and Rado. The Browns are a play or two shy of scoring the game's first points on a field goal:



Here's Goddard marking some stats on the big board:



Here's Doug Dieken. On the other side of the glass wall sit the Browns coaches. Immediately to Dieken's left is receivers coach Terry Robiskie:



In the elevator, we ran into Chomps, one of the four pointless Browns mascots. He was not pleased to see us with Shannon:



Then a whole bunch of stuff happened. Plays were run, touchdowns were caught. Finally, the Browns were able to take the knee of victory:



All in all, it was one of the best Browns games we've ever been to.

What a game! What a weekend! Alex and I each made the journey home so that we could watch the Browns in person. I even brought along a Bears fan out of the goodness of my heart (actually, so we could have someone to taunt/gloat at). We even had the opportunity to spend about half of the first quarter inside the Browns radio booth, with Jim Donovan, Doug Dieken and their crew (similar to what we did at Jacobs Field earlier this year). We'll be posting more about that later in the week (along with pictures from the experience), so stay tuned.

As for the game, it was a nail-biter for a while there, and a thriller at the end. Isn't it nice how the air smells sweeter during the week after a Browns victory? With their 20-10 win, the Browns and I are now on a 6-0 winning streak dating back to Week 17 of 2002. Just as most people predicted, it was a defensive battle--one in which the Bears offense simply sucked more.

Actually, the Bears were able to "establish the run", rushing for 176 yards, but it didn't help them any. This belies a trend that has long been highlighted by the folks at Football Outsiders--that rushing well does not lead to scoring more. That is, being able to "establish the run" early in a game does you no good. It is through the air that points are scored. When winning teams amass huge rushing totals, it is by amassing them at the end of the game when they are merely trying to run out the clock. Teams that rush well but don't pass well (like, say, the Bears... or next week's opponent, the Ravens) do not have good offenses. Yesterday's game is a perfect example of this, as the Browns were out-rushed, 176 to 76, but still owned the scoreboard thanks to their passing attack, which was far from stellar but still managed to out-gain Chicago, 218 to 117. The total yards gained are equal (Browns 294, Bears 293) but that does not tell the whole story.

Anyway, on to the regular items...

Play of the Week

Alex says: With three and a half minutes left in the game, the Browns' defense had played well, but the team still trailed 10-6, thanks to the offense doing its best Chicago Bears impression. Trent Dilfer and Antonio Bryant intervened, however, with the Play of a Week, a 33-yard toasting of Bears safety Chris Harris. That Dilfer and Bryant connected again later in the game further masked the inept offense--before this play it appeared that the Browns defense and special teams would have to do all the work for them.

Corey says: I hate to agree with Alex for fear that "Born and Raised" might sound repetetive, but Antonio Bryant's first TD catch was such a marvelous, heaven-sent play that I really have no choice. Against the best defense in the NFL, Dilfer and AB really made it look easy. The fans went banoodles! Here is a picture of me openly mocking our Bears fan friend Shannon right after the play in question:

Player of the Week

Alex says: Chris Crocker, who "forced" two fumbles and was second on the team in tackles. Late in the 3rd, Crocker knocked the ball loose from Bears RB Cedric Benson, which was recovered by Chaun Thompson. (This led to a comedy of errors on the following Browns drive: on a 3rd-and-12, WR/backup emergency QB Frisman Jackson had a hard pass fly betwixt his hands; fortunately for the Browns, LJ Shelton was flagged for holding. On 3rd-and-22, Trent Dilfer evaded the pass rush thanks to a violent hold by Joe Andruzzi and completed a first down to Dennis Northcutt on the right sideline--3rd-and-32. The team didn't come through with a 3rd-and-42, though.) As for Crocker, his other "forced fumble" was clearly dropped by Orton before anyone laid a finger on him, but Chris still deserves credit for a great rush and recovering the loose ball.

Corey says: Though I could go with Bryant, I feel the Player of the Week ought to be someone on the defense. How about Ben Taylor, who equalled a career second-best in total tackles, with 12 (to lead the team). And on only two of the plays in which Taylor made a tackle did the Bears gain more than 3 yards--one being a 6-yard run and the other being a 15-yard run. I'd say that's a pretty good day.

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"I thought basically [Trent Dilfer] was inaccurate. You know, hey, if the guy's open and you don't hit him, that's not the defense." --Romeo Crennel

He just totally dissed the Bears' defense. Honestly, however, coach Crennel is right in his analysis of the offense: although Chicago has a good pass rush--their coverage never seemed to be extraordinary. On Dilfer's two interceptions especially, the blame has to be laid at the feet of the quarterback. Thank LeBron, it appears the days of the woes of the offensive line being the catch-all for the Browns' problems are over. Fortunately for Trent, though, he managed two highlight-reel touchdowns as a saving grace--and Clevelanders will likely soon forget the mistakes.

Corey says:

"[Romeo's] philosophy is that we've got to be the most conditioned team out there, and it definitely helped today. The [Bears'] pash rush wasn't as fierce as it was at the beginning of the game and we were able to keep our momentum. It comes back to conditioning. We run three times a week, and we made a mention of that on the field to some guys on the Bears and they thought we were crazy. But hey, it obviously showed in the fourth quarter." --Jeff Faine

I don't know if Faine's assertion that the Browns are in better physical condition than the Bears is true or not, but I have genuine doubts about whether that could have been the reason the Browns won the game. Remember, of the two touchdowns that came at the end, the first was set up by the special teams (Northcutt returned the punt to midfield) and was preceded by only four offensive plays, and the other was set up by Chris Crocker's fumble recovery and was preceded by only one offensive play. So it is hard for me to believe that the unwavering physical condition of the Browns offensive line was what got them the advantage in the fourth quarter.

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary Special Teams Moment of the Week

Alex says: Channelling Browns legend Chris Gardocki (and no doubt inspired by the #17 GARDOCKI jersey worn by the Official Dad of the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times), Kyle Richardson, with 13:22 left in the fourth quarter, pinned the opposing team on their own 3-yard line with the help of Michael Lehan. This punt gave the terrible Chicago offense about no chance to score for the rest of the game--as they never crossed midfield again.

Corey says: This is as good a time as any to remind everyone that, just like last year, Human Phil Dawson has begun the season with an impressive field goal streak. The Bears were forced to use a replacement kicker (Robbie Gould) in yesterday's game, and for a moment it looked like his early missed field goal would loom large (as the Browns led by 3 after AB's first score). Dawson, on the other hamd, was perfect on the day, as is his wont. Time will tell how far into the season Human Phil will play before sending in his robot doppelgänger for a game or two.

Obscure Brown of the Week

Alex says: Kickoff returner Josh Cribbs, who returned from an injury he sustained on the first play of the regular season. Cribbs not only returned three kickoffs on the game for a decent average of 22 yards, he also managed to equal the defensive contributions of one Gerard Warren on the week (1 tackle), thus continuing a long Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times tradition of honoring those Obscure Browns talented enough to outplay the foxy Warren.

Corey says: Linebacker Orlando Ruff, who tackled rookie running back Cedric Benson for no gain on a 4th-and-2 in the second quarter, thus getting the Browns the ball back on a turnover by downs. At the time, the Browns led by 3, and Chicago was in field goal range, so Lovie Smith's reluctance to rely on his kicker, coupled with Orlando's great play on the ensuing conversion attempt were huge for the Browns.

Fashion of the Week

Alex says: I choose the #24 BAXTER, since the Browns have had their share of great defensive backs in the past, and it seems that Gary Baxter is the first of that ilk for the New Browns. Not to disrespect Daylon McCutcheon, who is a sure-handed tackler and has a cool name, but Baxter is a fantastic cover-man and I also like the name "Baxter". Plus the #24 is too cool for a loser like Robert Griffith, so it's nice to see Gary taking his spot.

Corey says: How about one of our all-time favorites, the truly classic #98 "BIG DAWG". Here is a picture of us and the Big Dawg himself, John Thompson, in our historic first meeting:

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: Bears running back Thomas Jones, for evading and breaking so many tackles. It is simpler to name one Chicago RB than all of the Browns defense, but likely more blame should be heaped on the defenders. Despite all the talk of a solid defensive performace and so on, the truth remains that the Bears' offense plain sucks. Really sucks. So to allow so many rushing yards is particularly embarassing. Meanwhile, these defensive deficiencies may be masked again next week as the Browns take on the offensively-challenged Baltimorons.

Corey says: My Idiot of the Week is Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert, whose lame, Poochie-style, "hip", "fresh" new arena entertainment package has allegedly led to the firing of Mistake by the Lake favorite "Nasally Guy" as the Cavaliers PA announcer. Now the only place we'll be abale to hear NG's sweet, nasal voice is at Browns Stadium (where, I assure you, he put on a spectacular performance yesterday). As much as I enjoy hearing him say things like "William Green the ballcarrier; loss of twelve on the play", I will truly miss his classic catchphrase, "Timeout, Cavaliers. Cavaliers, timeout!"

Number of the Week

Alex says: 5/15, or 33%--the Bears' combined 3rd and 4th-down conversion rate for the game. The NFL average hovers somewhere around 40% for third down and 50% for fourth, so the Browns defense's success at preventing first downs was a major factor in the low-scoring nature of the game. Plus if you subtract the wrenching conversion of a 3rd-and-19 with a run up the middle by Adrian Peterson during the fourth quarter, things look even better.

Corey says: 3, the number of fumble recoveries the Browns had yesterday and also their turnover differential on the season, which ranks them 9th in the NFL. It has been shown statistically that fumble recoveries are not due to any sort of team skill or "nose for the ball", nor are they predictive of future fumble-recovering performance in any way, shape or form. In essence, which team recovers a fumble is random, so perhaps we should be thanking our lucky stars that the Browns came away with three of the Bears' five fumbles, since those turnovers led to 10 of the Browns' 20 points.

Next week: The Browns make the arduous journey to the land of evil and cheating, Baltimore, MD, where they will reel off a quick victory over the hapless Baltimorons before retreating to friendly lands. Join us once again as we count the many reasons why Ray Lewis is the Idiot of the Week, on another "Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns"!

Starting today, we're going to experiment with posting Browns game previews each Friday (or so), using Football Outsiders' DVOA statistics to look at matchups, etc. This week, the Chicago Bears come to town, and unlike the last time these two teams faced off in the regular season, the Bears no longer have Shane Matthews or James Allen, so nothing can go wrong!

First off, I got all the numbers I'm about to use from the DVOA report for Week 5. If you want DVOA explained in detail, check here.

Browns offense vs. Bears defense:

           CLE offense  CHI defense
total DVOA     9.5%       -42.7%
passing       35.0%       -58.1%
rushing      -32.7%       -27.0%

Just so you know, negative numbers are bad for offense, but good for defense. And yes, that means the Bears defense is really, really good--best in the NFL in DVOA, in fact. For that reason, this matchup heavily favors the Bears. The Browns offense, meanwhile, has been better than average on the whole, thanks to a stellar passing attack that is currently 9th in the league. Unfortunately for us, if there's a "weakness" in the Chicago defense, it's the rushing defense--rushing being an area where the Browns have absolutely sucked (31st in the NFL). Huge advantage: Bears

Bears offense vs. Browns defense:

           CHI offense  CLE defense
total DVOA   -26.8%        16.1%
passing      -60.2%        22.5%
rushing        7.1%         9.0%

Here we have a matchup of two fairly bad units. The Bears offense, 27th in the NFL in DVOA, can run the ball fine but is worst in the league in passing, by a huge margin. The Browns defense may have looked good to us at times but has actually struggled, especially in the secondary. And yes, these statistics are adjusted for the quality of one's opponents, so the fact that the pass defense has faced the strong-passing offenses of Cincy and Indy is already reflected here. The Browns run defense has been better, but still below average. I expect the Bears to put up solid rushing yardage totals but still struggle to score points. Advantage: Browns

Special teams matchups:

                       Browns  Bears
total DVOA              3.5%    5.2%
FG kicking              1.2    -5.3
CLE kickoff vs. CHI KR  1.9    -1.0
CLE KR vs. CHI kickoff -1.3     2.0
CLE punt vs. CHI PR     2.3     7.2
CLE PR vs. CHI punt    -0.5     2.5

This is one area where I think the numbers might not be accounting for everything. For one, these data are more susceptible to small sample size issues because of the small number of special teams plays that have been run in only 3 games. But more than that, we all know the Browns punt returning unit has performed better than can be reflected from the results of the plays (thanks to a few meaningless penalties). The Bears punt returning has also been good, according to DVOA; however, it hasn't been due to a consistent, solid return average, rather a single return that went for a touchdown, combined with the weak performance of the Redskins' and Lions' punters. If the Bears have an area of concern, it's their field goal kicking, as Doug Brien has gone 1 for 4 so far. As for the other aspects of the special teams game, I'd call this matchup a wash. Slight advantage: Browns

So, in giving the edge to both the Browns and Bears defenses over their respective opponents, I think it's fair to say this will be a low-scoring game, in which special teams could play a big role. I don't think there's a clear-cut favorite to win this game, but if I were a gambling man, I'd probably take the Bears.

See you at the Stadium!

Does it feel like we're celebrating a little too much when we're supposd to be real sad? Trust me, we're sad. We just like giving out awards for stuff. Oh, and read Alex's awards from yesterday first, if you haven't already.

Home Run of the Year

There were some truly memorable homers this year, including two that I saw in person that will be with me always. One of those is my choice for Home Run of the Year; it's Coco Crisp's RBI-quadruple against the Tigers in game 2 of the July 4th double header. Who doesn't love an inside-the-parker? And the icing on the cake was that Pronk immediately made it back-to-back jacks with a more traditional, Hafner-style home run. In my short life I've actually seen two inside-the-park home runs in person, one in one of the toughest ballparks for triples (Jacobs Field), and the other hit by, of all people, Sammy Sosa.

Batting Line of the Year

Oh yeah, that other home run that I saw in person that will be with me always? C.C. Sabathia's line drive shot to straightaway center in Cincinnati. Last year, Alex semi-jokingly honored Jason Davis for his batting line of .200/.200/.800, which was good for a VORP of 1.1, making Davis the 14th most productive hitter on the 2004 Indians. In 2005, however, C.C. had a batting line of .333/.333/1.000 and was the 11th most productive hitter on the team with a VORP of 2.3--better than 7 position players who had at least as many plate appearances. C.C. was even a few steps (okay, a few long steps) away from stretching his double against the Giants into a triple, which would have pumped up his slugging percentage to 1.167 (but instead got him thrown out on the basepaths as he dove into third, causing three separate seismic events in the Bay Area). I have made quasi-jokes about letting C.C. pinch hit every once in a while, but maybe it's not such a crazy idea...

Concession of the Year

Or, if you prefer, Sophomore of the Year (since Alex is so reluctant to call Grady and Jhonny sophomores). There are a ton of concessions items at The Jake that I truly love, first and foremost the grilled kosher hot dogs (of course). But my vote for Concession of the Year goes to the second-year sensation Johnny Applestix, the deep-friend apple slices available behind home plate on the main concourse. Since, as of now, Johnny Applestix are only available in the Cleveland area, Alex and I have taken to them quite fondly. The caramel sauce is delicious, yes, but try the lemon cheesecake sauce one time--I know you've been reluctant--I promise it's also delicious.

Manager of the Year

For the second year in a row, it's Eric Wedge! Woooooo! Okay, seriously, I no longer believe that a manager has much of an effect on the play of the team. The areas in which he exerts his influence are in setting the lineup and deciding substitutions. In these areas, I find Eric Wedge to be simply adequate. It is possible, of course, for a manager to hurt his team in other areas of the game (for example, with excessive small-ball tendencies) but Wedge doesn't really do that, so for that I've named him the best Indians manager of 2005!

Transaction of the Year

January 8, 2005--Signed RHP Kevin Millwood to a one-year contract. For the first season since taking over, Mark Shapiro didn't make a significant trade to haul in prospects (last year's being the Milton Bradley trade). Instead, I honor him for doing something that few GM's seem able to do--actually making a good, smart free agent signing. In an offseason when guys like Russ Ortiz got $33 million, Shapiro was able to buck the market by signing an injury risk to a contract that would only cost the Indians any money if the risk payed off. Meanwhile, I have a lot of faith in Shapiro and am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, but with his comments yesterday that the Indians would be offering big money to the now free-agent Millwood, I worry. He's still an injury risk, but now, because of his incredible season, whoever signs him will have to pay big regardless of whether the risk pays off. Everyone seems to have this obsessive notion that you have to spend money on the free agent market to win. Bud Selig and George Steinbrenner would seem to have convinced everyone of this. But it's not true. Spending money on free agents--even ones who are perceived to be great players--is more often detrimental to the team than it is beneficial. I have no problem with the Indians spending money, mind you. I simply want everyone to recognize that it's not necessary and that it has to be done smartly, which sounds obvious, except that I'm not convinced re-signing Kevin Millwood is spending money smartly. Again, I'll give Shapiro the benefit of the doubt.

Afro of the Year

Last year, Ronnie Belliard unfurled a classic afro for one game only--the 1970's throwback game against the Reds. It was great. This year, a few Indians sported afros or afro-like hairstyles for slightly longer than one game. Grady Sizemore had a little bit of a Jew-fro going there for a while (he's not Jewish; it's just a hairstyle), and Victor Martinez had a little puffy thing going on for a while, too, but the Afro of the Year is clearly Coco Crisp's early-season hairdo. It was great, and it suited him so well. When he got rid of it after about a month, I was quite sad, but of course, then the Indians started winning a hell of a lot of games, so all was forgiven. Congratulations, Coco.

That's all for the awards. Unlike Alex, I will have more to say on the Indians in the coming days. Specifically, I am working on a study of Indians attendance over the last few years which I hope you'll find interesting.

Last season, Corey and I each presented awards for the best of the 2004 season. Now we're back again, from outer space, to do the very same for the simultaneously uplifting and depressing 2005 Indians. Corey's awards should appear soon, and he'll cover things I missed. This might be the last you hear about the Indians from me in quite a while--I just don't want to even think about them anymore. Plus, we have lots of Browns wins games to look forward to. And LeBron!

"Rookie" of the Year

As much as I want to hand this award to Jhonny Peralta, he sufficiently did exhaust his rookie status in 2003, with 262 plate appearances. So the winner is Cleveland's newest heartthrob, Grady Sizemore. If Grady had only had eight fewer at-bats last season as a September call-up, he would've ran away with the 2005 AL Rookie of the Year award. Instead, non-Clevelanders like Gustavo Chacin and Joe Blanton are the leading contenders.

Since Grady and Jhonny both exhausted their rookie eligibility previously (despite 2005 being their first real season in the majors), they aren't in the running for...

Rookie of the Year

Basically, the nominees are Franklin "Frankline" Gutierrez, Ryan Garko, Brian Tallet, Jeremy Guthrie, and this year's winner, Fernando Cabrera. All the candidates were mid-season call-ups, but only Fernando managed to wrest himself some playing time--being very successful in the process. Cabrera only made 15 appearances, on the season, not nearly enough to rack up enough in counting stats like Adjusted Runs Prevented or WXRL to show up on leaderboards. But Fernando's rate stats are definitely impressive: 4th on the Indians in K/9, 1st in HR/9, and 6th in OBP allowed. Of course, small sample size warnings apply. But I have a feeling that with more innings, Fernando would've built upon this success. Lots of speculation is being thrown around about him being "groomed" to be the next closer, so it seems the traditional media recognizes his talents too.

Game of the Year

Games late in the season are more easily retrieved from our memory banks for obvious reasons, but we shouldn't let this bias the awards. On June 28, the Indians played the second of their only three games at Fenway Park this season. Trailing 8-5 in the eighth, the Indians managed to tie the game in the ninth off the Red Sox's closer Keith Foulke. Then, the Pronk stepped to the dish and delivered a grand slam to the seats in right field. Game, Indians. This 75th contest of the season for the Tribe also gave us one of the great photographs from the season:

Minor Leaguer of the Year

My first instinct was to choose Ryan Garko (last year's winner). He hit .303/.384/.498 in Buffalo, very impressive indeed. But there is a better candidate. Although he didn't make the majors this season, Jeremy Sowers rose all the way from A-ball to AAA in his first professional season. He ate the hitters in the Carolina League for breakfast, the hitters in the Eastern League for lunch, and the hitters in the International League for dinner. All to a tune of a 2.37 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9, and 27 outs/9. Jeremy "Sweet and" Sowers deserves to be in the Major League starting rotation next season.

Thank You of the Year

To Kansas City Royal leftfielder Raymond "Chip" Payne Ambres, for possibly the most embarrassing and crucial error of 2005. If you don't remember yet what I'm referring to, let me take you back to August 9: George W. Bush is in the White House, and a loaf of bread cost somewhere between $.60 and $4.00, I haven't really been to the grocery store in a while. Anyways, heading into the ninth inning at Kauffman Stadium, the Indians are losing 7-2 to the craptacular Royals. Against Mike MacDougal,

• Casey Blake doubles
• Grady Sizemore doubles
• Coco Crisp singles
• Jhonny Peralta strikes out
• Travis Hafner doubles
• Victor Martinez singles
• Ronnie Belliard reaches on an error, but pinch runner Ramon Vazquez is tagged out

Despite all this success, the Tribe still trails by one run and is down to its last out. Up steps mighty Jeff Liefer who hits a pop-up to left field. Chip Ambres, being the Indians fan that he is, dutifully botches the play--allowing the tying run to score. The Indians then tack on six more runs before being retired in the inning, none of which would've been possible without the help of Chip. Thank you.

Fan of the Year

For the 33rd consecutive year, John Adams takes home this prestigious award. We all know his dedication and ass-kickingness, but I want to highlight a close runner-up who is usually grinding away in the background: Sister Mary Assumpta, or, the "Indians Nun." She's known for wearing her nun uniform with an Indians starter jacket while sitting along the first base side of Jacobs Field, and was even featured in the cinematic masterpiece, Major League. There can be only one, though, and that one is John Adams.

A week ago, Corey and I were faced with a tough call: given the Browns' bye in Week 4, should we write our weekly "Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns"? Last season, the Browns' bye was in Week 8, basically allowing us to write a first-half awards post. But this time around, there just aren't many accolades to hand out after only three games of play. So, there we were, minding our own business, when we were simultaneously struck with a genius idea: Born and Raised on the Cleveland Indians! It was going to be the last day of the baseball regular season! The Indians were going to be setting their playoff rotation! There was going to be dancing in the streets! It would be lunacy not to do it!

Never has a great plan backfired on me quite like this before.

As we all know, this past week for the Tribe ranks among the most excruciating and horrible weeks in Cleveland sports history. More momentous chokes like The Drive, Red Right 88, etc., only take a single game into account. This past week, though, the Indians managed to lose six games by, in total, seven runs. Pardon me while I jump off the Detroit-Superior Bridge.

In the spirit of the true, pathetic, rationalizing Cleveland sports fan, however, I will attempt to remain positive. Just bear with me on this one as I present the Top Five Reasons Not To Be Discouraged About The 2005 Indians:

5. The Indians would have won the NL something-or-other. In fact, the Indians' 93 wins would have won the AL Central and/or Wild Card in every year dating back to 1829, or something like that.
4. It is reasonable to expect this team might actually be even better next year, by essentially fixing the few [gaping] holes in the lineup (three holes in particular come to mind). Ryan Garko, anyone?
3. The White Sox are due for a horrible collapse, and I'm going to enjoy it. Teams don't consistently outproduce their expected winning percentage by 12 wins. This is going to be good, heh.
2. The Indians were the best team in the majors by a reasonable margin. How comforting it is to be reminded of this now, I don't know. But Baseball Prospectus's Adjusted Standings Report shows the Indians' true level of play as that of a .602 team--good enough for 98 wins, best in the majors. The bad luck of the Tribe and ridiculously good luck of the aforementioned White Sox are what contributed to the Indians' tragic end.
1. Think of it this way: this was our 1994. Of course, the circumstances are a little different this time around, but essentially we can think of the '94 Indians as a young team battling for a playoff spot. We all know that the '95 Tribe went on to completely own the AL, and the only differences were the additions of Orel Hershisher and Julian Tavarez and the young players having an extra season of experience. The fact that we can reasonably expect Grady Sizemore and Jhonny Awesomestix, among others, to improve next season is truly exciting.

And now, your regular items.

Play of the Week

Alex says: Ronnie Belliard's diving stop on a ground-ball up the middle and no-look flip to Peralta for the force at second base on Wednesday. Simply amazing. Once again this season, Belliard has had a groundswell of support from the Cleveland media for the Gold Glove. However, this time around, Ronnie doesn't just have the highlight reel--he has the stats to back it up. He knocked his Defensive Runs Above Replacement from 18 in 2005, to a whopping 38 this season. A lot of that, I suspect, is due to a huge improvement in the Indians' pitching staff; but nonetheless, it's impressive. And Belliard is nothing but deserving of a Gold Glove.

Corey says: First of all, I have to agree with Alex--that Belliard's blind flip and Peralta's barehanded grab of said flip was quite possibly the finest-looking play of the season, let alone the week. But I'll go in a different direction, since, if anything remained solid for the Tribe this week, it was the pitching. Thus, my co-Plays of the Week are the nine strikeouts recorded by C.C. Sabathia in his outing Thursday against the Devil Rays. It was the lone victory of the week and perhaps the finest pitching performance of C.C.'s career. His line of 8 IP, 104 pitches, 0 ER, 5 hits (for 6 total bases), 2 walks and 9 K's closely mirrors Kevin Millwood's line from the following night (7 IP, 1 ER, 0 walks, 9 K's). You certainly can't accuse these two pitchers of contributing in any way, shape or form to the team's choke-job.

Player of the Week

Alex says: He was a master in the field, and a master at the dish; once again I go with Ronnie Belliard. Over the week, he hit .364/.462/.682 to lead the team in just about every hitting category imaginable. Of course, the Indians' bats slept furiously throughout the week, so a pitcher is probably more deserving of this award. But the only non-Elarton starter to pitch twice this week was Jake Westbrook, and he was merely good--nothing special.

Corey says: Ronnie wasn't the only Indian to do well at the plate this week, although he was close. Jhonny Peralta hit an impressive .333/.407/.583, and even though it barely made a difference in the run-scoring department, he deserves some credit. This week Jhonny hit his 24th and final homer to finally edge Woodie Held for the franchise shortstop record, and also tie him for second in the major leagues by a shortstop in 2005. Incidentally, Jhonny led the majors in slugging percentage by a shortstop, with a .520 mark.

Quote of the Week

Alex says:

"...We're not using the 1990s as the measuring stick. That would be unfair. That was an aberrational occurrence that probably won't happen again. It had never happened before in the history of the game anywhere. We should hardly hold ourselves to that same standard when the reality is the factors that brought the '90s together are more than likely a onetime occurrence not to repeat themselves." --Paul Dolan, Indians President

Corey and I have touched on it before, but Dolan is more qualified to talk about the factors going into the Indians' popularity in the 1990's than I could ever be. One should almost feel sympathy for the current Indians front office--always being compared to the success of the mid-90s teams. The comparison may be apt in terms of on-the-field ability, but the fans' interest in those teams likely peaked for a number of circumstances that will never happen again (unless, of course, the Browns move away again and the Indians for some reason build another stadium and the Cleveland economy takes another huge but all-too-temporary upswing).

Corey says:

"If you don't tie your shoelaces the right way and you trip on them going into second base, then you make sure to tie them the right way the next time" --Coco Crisp.

What a master of metaphors, that Coco. It's probably what makes him such a successful rap artist. In short, what Coco is trying to say is that this type of collapse isn't going to happen again because from now on the Indians will make sure to tie their shoes, or something. I would tend to agree, in that this type of collapse isn't going to hapen again, but my rationale would have nothing to do with the tired cliché of "learning from your mistakes", which implies that the Indians somehow weren't ready to make the playoffs this year (which is ridiculous).

Ryan Pontbriand Honorary "Other Play of the Week" of the Week

Alex says: What did you expect, special teams? During the Indians' 6-0 dismantling of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays on Thursday, I (and the rest of America) wrongly assumed I had seen the turning point for the Indians, who would then kick the White Sox' lowly ass. A lot of that feeling came from seeing The Pronk hit a laser into the centerfield picnic pavilion off Casey Fossum, a.k.a. Squirrelly Guy. For a minute, Hafner was back. And then, he wasn't. What a shame.

Corey says: How about another fine defensive play by Ronnie Belliard, the leaping catch he made on a scorching Timo Perez line drive in Saturday's ballgame which led to a 4-6 double play. Once again, Ronnie played very well throughout the Indians' losing stretch. I have to say he really surprised me this year by significantly improving upon his surprising (but still overrated) 2004 campaign, to the tune of 2 whole points of WARP (7.5 vs. 5.5; this despite appearing in fewer games).

Obscure Indian of the Week

Alex says: Franklin "Frankline" Gutierrez, who posted an amazing 1.000 OBP this week! This was after drawing a walk from Neal Cotts in the 11th inning on Friday, thereby boosting his career OBP from .000 to .500. In case you're confused, Gutierrez received his nickname after I misspelled his name in a Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times poll.

Corey says: I'm choosing the 2006 American League Rookie of the Year, Jeremy Sowers, although his status as "obscure" is something of a technicality (his career hasn't, um, started yet). Sowers, one of the best prospects in baseball, is ready to step into the rotation next spring, and, barring injury, is going to make Indians fans quickly forget about whatever starting pitchers the team doesn't re-sign, whether that's Millwood, Elarton, or both. Just one more reason to keep a positive attitude.

Fashion of the Week

Alex says: It's definitely not the weekend vested jerseys, which I detest. I would have to say it is definitely a big drum, if that can be considered fashion. Seriously, John Adams deserves major props for his dedication and ass-kickingness. And I mean more than just a measly article in the Akron Beacon Journal. How about some free tickets for the man's drum, eh, Indians?

Corey says: Alex's "Fashion of the Week" selections have gotten more and more detached over the last few weeks, to the point where he's now naming musical instruments and questioning the very purpose of the category as a whole. Myself, I've always enjoyed the emphasis on cool Browns jerseys I see and/or think people should wear, but as it stands, we are thinking of disbanding this item, perhaps in favor of something else, provided that we can think of something else. Anyway, my choice this week is the #24 SIZEMORE, which I predict will become the best-selling Indians jersey over the next few seasons. Grady possesses all the essential qualities for becoming insanely popular in Cleveland: he's white, he's a gamer, and apparently, he's attractive (though this came as news to me; I always thought he had a little bit of a duck-face). Please bear in mind, I bought my own Sizemore jersey when Grady was still in the minors; I'm cool like that. Or something.

Idiot of the Week

Alex says: I name everyone who had an official at-bat for the Indians this week. Except for Ronnie Belliard, because that would make me hypocritical. I don't have the patience to expound on why I hate Aaron Boone, Casey Blake, and Ben Broussard right now. Sorry. Try me again in about six weeks.

Corey says: My co-Idiots of the Week are unquestionably Hawk Harrelson and Darrin Jackson, the TV announcers for the White Sox. Being forced to listen to their dreck (because I live in Chicago) is nearly as bad as watching the Indians piss away a 90% chance at a playoff spot. Not only are they annoying in tone, their self-admitted White Sox bias is sickening beyond compare. But the worst quality these two announcers share is, in my opinion, ignorance--of baseball, yes, but also of other things. I can't recall the exact quote, but during one of the games, the cameras showed John Adams beating his drum, and Jackson said something like "It seems like every time we come to Jacobs Field, there's at least one fan who brings a giant drum to the ballpark". And this guy has been to Jacobs Field, what, 70 times?

Number of the Week

Alex says: 2.62, Kevin Millwood's ERA for the season, which led the American League. This number includes Kevin's masterful 7 innings on Friday against the Sox, when he allowed just a run, striking out 9--one of the best starts for the Indians this season. That the hitters decided to nap through the game shouldn't reflect upon Millwood. He was brilliant, as he was for just about the entire season. If the Indians had managed to score some runs for him here and there, he would've been a landslide Cy Young winner.

Corey says: My Number of the Week is actually a set of numbers, namely .229/.301/.374--that's what the Indians hit over their final 7 games--and .246/.283/.348--that's what the Indians' opponents combined to hit over the final 7 games. Now, the collapse of the Indians over these last 7 days is largely the fault of the offense, which, as you can see, performed considerably worse than the season's average of .272/.335/.454. But consider the fact that the Tribe pitching staff, in those 7 games, held the Royals, Devil Rays, and White Sox to a worse combined