Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times

for the Cleveland sports fan

Wednesday, August 31, 2005

Dial Early, Dial Often

by Corey

From today's Plain Dealer:
Many professional athletes will not admit to listening to radio sports-talk shows.

Closer Bob Wickman not only admits to listening to the gabfests, but says that the tone of callers' comments will affect his decision on re-signing with the Indians for next season.

"Guys who call and blast me will have an effect on whether I want to come back here next season. My kids hear this stuff and it makes me mad."
I never thought I'd say this, but call! Call WKNR and WTAM and complain and insult! We only have so much time!

Okay, seriously now. In reality, it's not intelligent, blog-reading people who are calling sports talk radio to point out Wickman's shaky peripherals (a career-high HR/9 of 1.5, a near-career low K/9 of 4.6 and a rather plump BB/9 of 3.3) or discuss the financial suicide of investing money in a reliever, much less a 37-year-old one; rather, it's the same idiotic Joe Callers who phone in to suggest Diop-for-Magloire trades or demand Larry Dolan's head on a platter. Frankly, I'm not sure you make it to air with the intelligent discourse routine.

In even truer reality, Wickman's decision on whether to re-sign with the Indians in 2006 is not likely to be his decision to make, nor is it likely, if it were his decision, that he would make it based on anything other than money, pure and simple. Wickman may find that there isn't much market for his services, or that the only interested GMs are the stupid ones--and none of those resides in Cleveland.

Posted at 8:53 AM10 comments

Sunday, August 28, 2005

We Hardly Knew Ye

by Corey

The first 13 Browns were cut today, among them, inevitably, several of our favorite Obscure Browns.

Goodbye to Clint Stickdorn, who leads our "Who is the early frontrunner for Obscure Brown of the Year?" poll with 23% of the vote as I write this. I guess having a cool name is not as important to the Browns braintrust as it is to us and our readers. And I guess it's time for a new poll.

Farewell, Javiar "Caviar" Collins. I knew you didn't stand a chance.

Smell ya later, Derrick Frost. Though the Browns had the NFL's 4th-best DVOA in punting in 2004, Pro Football Prospectus wisely points out that this was accomplished virtually in spite of D-Frost, whose punting distance was nothing special. The key to the Browns' punting success was their spectacular containment of opposing returners. We have Leigh Bodden, Dyshod Carter & company to thank for that.

Auf Wiedersehen, Corey Jackson. You were the Browns defense's token Corey (every defense has one), and you even spelled Corey correctly.

While it's unlikely we'll ever see these players again, it's not impossible. Last year at this time I mourned the loss of Frisman Jackson, Mark "Microsoft" Word, Darnell Sanders, and Chad "Stadium" Mustard, yet two of those men ended up contributing on a regular basis late in the season. There are still more cuts to come, though, and it's the next round of cut players who are most likely to pull a Frisman in 2005.

Posted at 9:08 PM1 comments

Reality? Check.

by Alex

Through 131 games, the Indians have performed thusly in the Jacobs Field era:
YearWL
19959140
19967853
19976962
19987358
19998150
20007160
20017457
20025774
20035873
20046566
20057358
Since in general, fans judge success by won-loss records—it appears that the 2005 Indians may be bested by only the 1995 and 1999 versions. Then why is there not the same amount of excitement in fair Cuyahoga County? Here are a few theories:
  1. The team isn’t as good. Evidence for this is that the Indians were only one game over .500 as late as July 21. I interpret that trivia instead as showing how hot the team has been for more than a month. Also the euphoria for the ‘95 team bled over for nearly six seasons, leading to the 1996 team especially being overrated.
  2. The Chicago White Sox. If the White Sox had performed as nearly every person on the face of the Earth expected this season, or even as their third-order Pythagorean Winning Percentage dictates they would be about 66-58; three and a half games behind the Tribe.
  3. Larry Dolan. Cleveland fans seem like they will hold onto their grudge against the Indians owner (and the Indians by proxy) until death or whenever Dolan ponies up $40 million for a scrub like Jeromy Burnitz, whichever comes first. Kevin Millwood notwithstanding.
  4. Jacobs Field. First of all, I’m not suggesting there is something wrong with the stadium. I love it and think it’s a first-class venue. But the Indians’ renaissance conveniently lined up with the opening of the Jake. Not only were fans filling the stands to see a winner, but also to see the new jewel of downtown. The excitement of seeing the stadium for the first time has worn.
Personally, I think the Indians are just as good as they were in 1997 (gasp!). The Indians merely got hot at the perfect time. Very few remember that the Indians were only 86-75 and trailed the wild-card winning Yankees by 10 games! If the Tribe can make playoffs and even win the ALDS, hindsight will look back on the 2005 team kindly.

Posted at 6:44 PM7 comments

The Official Post of Cleveland Athletes’ Official Websites

by Alex

One of my non-sports-related hobbies is web design. For example, I designed the layout Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times and this summer I interned at a Cleveland web design firm. I bring this up because I’ve been checking out the “official” websites of Cleveland athletes. Yes, I realize the athletes likely had nothing to do with the production of the site, but let’s take a look:

Drew Gooden “Plenty,” http://www.drewgooden.net

Immediately you hear annoying music and I don’t think you can turn it off. This site is barren with only two pages of real content: an April 2004 diary entry and an advertisement for Drew’s summer camps. The site looks nice though.

LeBron James, http://www.lebronjames.com

As much as I love LeBron, his site stinks. The music is annoying, the text is hard to read, and it’s really confusing to navigate. On the bright side though, he has a game called “LeBronitron” that’s suspiciously like a slot machine. In “3-Point Shootout,” it is actually impossible to miss a shot in rookie mode.

My absolute favorite section is LeBron’s journal. There is a monthly update during the off-season about public relations things. Fortunately, fans can post comments. Enjoy some highlights from July 2005:
  • Hey LeBron- Peace be with you. II was born and raised in Akron and I was just wondering what is your favorite restaurant in Akron? Also I used to play a lot of ball at Summit Lake. Did you used to play ball there? E-mail me and let me know about the restaurant.
    Thanx- Brian

  • Hey LeBron Im one of yuor biggest fans cause u got so many. I just wanted to say whatup. It would be nice to get an email from you that way I can tell people I got an email from my hero. People say I look like you when I got my headband on when I got my haircut. Well I got to go play some ball. Bye

  • I love u man I went to all of ur games this year!! I hate New Jersey!!!!!!!!!!

Eric “Lake Effect” Snow, http://www.eric-snow.com

The clichéd Flash introduction describes the man of the hour: “Business Man; Father; NBA Superstar; Husband; Community Leader.” One of these things is not like the other. I also learned that Eric’s nickname is “Pookie.” Overall, the site is ugly yet easy to navigate. Plus how could I resist a man whose wife is named DeShawn?

Gary Baxter, http://www.garybaxter24.com

I’m glad they changed the domain from “garybaxter28.com” to “garybaxter24.com” to reflect his signing with the Browns and resultant new jersey number—but there is still way too much Ravens related material on this site. In fact, in his online store there isn’t a single Cleveland-related item. This better change soon.

Josh Harris, http://www.joshharrisqb.com

Josh represents the only current Cleveland Brown who had an official website I could find. I actually like this site for an athlete’s. It’s attractive and easy to use, but really small. Expect a major redesign away from orange and brown when Josh is released soon. Although they could keep it in honor of BGSU.

Ben Broussard, http://www.benbroussard.com

This site is primarily to shell Ben’s CD, which once again features his amazing beatboxing. This site isn’t worth visiting unless you want to buy his album; it’s only three pages large.

I’m sure I missed quite a few players I missed—and I’d love to see them. There aren't any thorough directories of official websites of professional athletes. If you know of any Cleveland athletes I didn’t find, please post a link in the comments.

Posted at 2:35 PM1 comments

Friday, August 26, 2005

Indians Coverage on BP

by Corey

Everyone check out what Dave Haller has to say about Jhonny Peralta in today's Prospectus Notebook over at Baseball Prospectus. Scroll down to the middle third. It's a free article!

I think all Indians fans are aware of how great Jhonny is with the bat, but few probably realize that he's been the best defensive shortstop in the AL this year, and third-best in the majors. As far as I'm concerned, he is absolutely an MVP candidate.

Posted at 5:19 PM3 comments

Wednesday, August 24, 2005

Marking Our Territory

by Corey

I was reminiscing the other day, and for some reason I randomly remembered this article from more than a year ago by Dan Werr on Baseball Primer (which is now Baseball Think Factory), in which he creates, among other things, a map of the United States showing each team's geographical "territory" based on the distance from any given place to the nearest major league stadium. I really liked that idea so I thought it would be interesting to do it on a more local scale, but for all three Cleveland teams, not just the Indians. Thus, with a little help from Google Earth and high school geometry, here's what I came up with.

Area in which the Browns are the nearest NFL team:

Browns territory

Browns territory shares borders with four other NFL teams--the Lions to the northwest, the Bengals to the southwest, the Steelers to the southeast, and the Bills to the northeast. Each of these borders falls just short of a sizable city, too, as the Browns miss out on Columbus, Toledo, Erie, and Youngstown (although they still have Warren, OH). The Browns do have Canton and thus, the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Browns territory also occupies a small corner of Canada surrounding the town of Port Burwell, Ontario (pop. 900).

In reality, obviously, the lines between Browns country and, say, Steelers country are blurred, but I suspect that the area in which Browns fandom is in the majority extends further than the boundaries in the graphic. This would be due mainly to state borders, which to many people trump actual distances and therefore probably give us Toledo and Youngstown, and to the prestige of the Browns franchise, which outweighs that of the Bengals and therefore probably also gives us Columbus.

Next, the Indians.

Area in which the Indians are the nearest MLB team:

Indians territory

Indians terrotiry is almost identical to Browns territory except that instead of sharing a border with Buffalo (Bills), we share one with Toronto (Blue Jays). The result of this is that the Indians get Erie, PA and lose a large portion of their Ontario triangle (though they still keep Port Burwell). The Tigers, Reds, and Pirates sub in for their football counterparts, which is why the other boundaries remain the same.

Like Browns territory, I suspect that the actual Indians territory is wider than its purely distance-based geography would suggest. Again, reasons are state borders and franchise prestige. Two more reasons that apply only to the Indians, though, are farm system alignment and international borders, which probably give us Buffalo (thanks to the Bisons and the fact that, hey, who wants to be a Blue Jays fan?).

Finally, the Cavaliers.

Area in which the Cavaliers are the nearest NBA team:

Cavaliers territory

Everyone knows that LeBron territory is The Globe. Cavaliers territory may be smaller than that but it's much bigger than either Browns or Indians territory, thanks to the lack of an NBA team in both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. The Detroit and Toronto borders remain the same, but the other two borders are replaced now by three new ones: with Indianapolis, Charlotte, and Washington. The result is that Cavs country plunges deep into the heart of several states. It reaches as far as Charleston, WV in the south and DuBois, PA in the east. It also squarely includes Columbus and Pittsburgh.

Although the lure of rooting for LeBron is great, I'd wager to say that the actual Cavaliers territory is smaller than the one depicted above, unlike its football and baseball brethren. Even though the people of Cincinnati are probably slightly more likely to root for the Cavs than the Pacers, it's not enough. For one, state boundaries work against the Cavaliers in several areas, as Pennsylvanians and West Virginians are much more likely not to care about the NBA at all (or root for the 76ers perhaps?) than to root for the Cavs. Once you get a certain distance away from a team's home base, it's hard to keep hold of people and they start rooting for the Lakers or whoever anyway. Plus, basketball is not as popular as football or baseball, so when you get to a town like Pittsburgh, I imagine it's kind of like rooting for an NHL team in Cleveland. I mean, in reality, I suppose Cleveland is in Blue Jackets territory, even though we're geographically closer to Detroit than Columbus (different parts of the Greater Cleveland Area are geographically closer to Detroit, Columbus, and Pittsburgh). But we don't care about hockey, and frankly I wouldn't blame the people of Pittsburgh if they simply ignored the Cavaliers. I wouldn't want them anyway. Damn Steelers fans.

Posted at 8:00 AM12 comments

Tuesday, August 23, 2005

Are They Improved? Miscellany and Conclusions

by Alex

Now for the final installment (at least for the 2005 off-season) of my series evaluating the summer changes made by the Cavaliers. So far, I’ve evaluated the predicted starting lineup and bench. Today’s article might be a little different, as I discuss off-the-court changes and wrap things up.

The most noticeable change to fans will likely be reupholstered red seats in the Cavaliers’ rechristened home arena. I cannot find any official reportage of the change, but minority owner Usher Raymond touched on the topic during the press conference introducing the new owners. Of all the non-basketball changes made by Dan Gilbert and his associates this summer, I approve of this the most. I doubt fans have any emotional attachment to blue seats, and they were an eyesore with the new “wine and gold” Cavs.

The “rechristened home arena” has received previous coverage on this ‘blog thanks to Corey. Clevelanders are still waiting on a finalized logo design—which is all but guaranteed to be ugly. The name would still suck, but I wish Gilbert could slash off the “Loans” leaving only “Quicken Arena” for the sake of a more eloquent two-word title. This would be similar to “Safeco Field” in Seattle instead of “Safeco Insurance Field.” A problem arises though, since Quicken™ is a registered trademark of Intuit Inc. I have no clue how Gilbert’s Quicken Loans, an online mortgage loan company, avoided lawsuits from Quicken, a personal finance management tool.

Sadly, the in-arena entertainment will also see wide-reaching changes for the 2005-2006 here in Cleveland. Gone are the PA Announcer, Nasally Guy (who continues to address the public at Cleveland Browns Stadium), what we’ve known as the “Scream Team,” and any shred of decency Gund Arena once had. Oh yeah, silence is gone too. Cavalier fans can look forward to an evening filled with whams-with-the-right-hand by LeBron, lots and lots of yelling by the new Public Address Announcer, and migraines caused by the hot jamz unceasingly bangin’ up in yo’ grill.

Undoubtedly, these moves are an attempt to attract younger, more urban (read: black) fans to the arena. The changes will also undoubtedly vex the older and devout fans who don’t need to be distracted from the game. The Cavaliers probably are the most detached from their core audience in Cleveland: the Browns have a clear stranglehold on entertaining the “Average Joe” with all the AC/DC and such; the Indians cater mostly to kids and, by extension, families with silly promotions like “Kids Run the Bases” every Sunday. The Cavaliers may indeed attract plenty of cool hip youngsters, but I’m afraid they’ll probably annoy the middle aged in the process. But then again, Dan Gilbert’s goal isn’t to make the fans happy, it’s to get as much of their money as possible.

Considering the on-court and the off-court changes as two separate realms, the Cleveland Cavaliers this off-season have taken one step forward and another step backwards. The on-court performance ought to be much improved next season with the improvement of younger players like LeBron and Anderson Varejao, the signings of Larry Hughes and Donyell Marshall, the re-addition of Luke Jackson, and hopefully the benching of the abhorrent Ira Newble. We’re still waiting on the addition of a point guard—but as I’ve said, even a league average point will improve the Cavs. As I just laid out though, I’m expecting an even more annoying non-basketball experience at Quicken Loans Arena this season. But, if I had to choose between the on-court play of the Cavaliers plummeting or the in-house entertainment, yadda yadda yadda. At least they still have Dippin’ Dots.

Posted at 5:03 PM1 comments

Sunday, August 21, 2005

Football Outsiders Booksigning Recap & Browns Thoughts

by Corey

Saturday morning, I went to the Chicago-area booksigning for Football Outsiders (authors of Pro Football Prospectus), which turned out to be a solid two or three hours of football discussion. Aaron Schatz, creator and editor-in-chief of FO, and Michael David Smith, author of the column "Every Play Counts" were both in attendance. I found each of them to be extremely insightful and entertaining.

Of course, I had ample opportunity to talk Browns with the experts. One thing that came up (okay, I brought it up) was the recent news item of Andre Davis being told he can seek a trade. You already know what a big Andre Davis fan I am, for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that, using Football Outsiders' statistical methods, which are far superior to any "traditional" stats, Andre is revealed to be one of the best receivers in the NFL. Much to my surprise, Aaron Schatz remembered an e-mail exchange he and I had last summer, after I used some of his stats in a post defending Andre. What Aaron didn't quite remember is just how good his stats show Andre to be, so as soon as I mentioned it, he grabbed a copy of his book, flipped to the wide receivers section, and promptly said "You're right, he is incredible!" I thought it would be worthwhile to look at Andre's DVOA and DPAR stats now that a season has passed since I last brought this up:
           Browns  NFL       Browns  NFL
DVOA rank rank DPAR rank rank
2002 -5.8% 3 62 4.4 3 66
2003 34.4% 1 2 19.9 1 14
2004 34.1% 1 7 10.2 2 49
To summarize: an unspectacular rookie season, an amazing sophomore season, and a 2004 in which Andre excelled when healthy. The fact that his DPAR totals are less impressive than his DVOA is because DPAR depends heavily on the number of times the ball is thrown at you. When thrown the ball, though, Andre does as well or better as almost any receiver in the league. I think it's more than fair to say he's the best receiver the Browns have, which is why it upsets me that they're so willing to part with him. Romeo Crennel cannot entirely be blamed for undervaluing Andre, since most of what he's seen of him has been in training camp the last few weeks, when Andre has reportedly been struggling (perhaps because he hasn't played yet since his injury), but Phil Savage's job is to know things like this.

Edit: as of Monday morning, it is being reported that Andre Davis has been traded... to the Patriots... for a 5th-round draft pick. This upsets me greatly. The Patriots, for crying out loud. Gee, you think they know what they're doing? William Green is told he can seek a trade, and, twenty-seven years later, no takers. Andre Davis is told the same, and, 12 seconds later, the smartest team in football has itself a new deep threat.

Talk of Andre Davis quickly became talk of Braylon Edwards and the Browns receiving corps in general. Both Antonio Bryant and Dennis Northcutt show up very well in DVOA and DPAR, meaning the Browns are loaded at wide receiver--enough to make me wish they hadn't drafted Braylon Edwards. I'm not saying he won't become a great receiver because he probably will; perhaps even better than any of the current Browns receivers. But considering the talent they have at WR and the lack of talent they have (or had) at so many other positions, I stand by my original feeling that drafting Braylon was not in the Browns' best interest.

Another thing to consider is this: Michael David Smith wrote an excellent article a few months ago about the fact that high first-round draft picks have become far more expensive than what they're worth to their teams on the playing field, which suggests that the best strategy for a team with a top pick is to trade down. I'm not saying the Browns could have traded down rather than draft Braylon, but he is certainly an example of a player who will cost his team more than he will provide, at least until he reaches his prime years, or his current contract expires and his true value can be determined by the market.

Much of the Browns discussion at the booksigning Saturday centered on Butch Davis; specifically, ways he screwed up. Michael suggested that it might not have been wise to hire someone in the first place whose success came as head coach of the Miami Hurricanes. It's a bit like drafting a 7-foot center because he blocked a lot of shots in high school. Both Aaron and Michael mentioned ways in which Butch botched certain draft situations, whether by passing on Clinton Portis (the only Hurricane he didn't acquire!) in favor of William Green (who ran behind an unbelievable offensive line in college and was therefore overrated), or by trading an extremely valuable pick in order to move up one spot to draft Sergeant Stupid. Both of these draft gaffes are well known to Browns fans, but going over them at the Chicago-area gathering gave everyone a few good laughs. Luckily no one mentioned the Pontbriand pick; we all know I gave Butch a pass on that one.

Other things Aaron and/or Michael had to say about the Browns:
  • Given the quality of the receivers, tight ends, and Lee Suggs, Aaron confirmed my belief that the reason the Browns offense was so bad in 2004 was the line and the quarterbacks. Interceptions and sacks, he said, were responsible for holding back what could have (and should have) been a good offense.
  • Both authors like Charlie Frye's chances for NFL success, given his college environment and skill set. At the very least, he will provide excellent value for where he was drafted.
  • Gary Baxter is a very good corner, which I hadn't realized (I think Michael's words were "one of the best young corners"). I was relatively indifferent about his signing but now I'm excited to have him. Of course, he suffered his injury literally as we were talking about him on Saturday. Go figure.
Like anyone else, the Football Outsiders guys are not optimistic about the 2005 Browns, but they believe there is reason for optimism in general. Aaron said he would be more optimistic right now as a Browns fan than as a Bears fan, which surprised me a little (but didn't seem to surprise any Bears fans in attendance). Part of the problem for the Browns right now is that they're the weak team in an unbelievably loaded conference. From listening to those guys talk about how good the Patriots, Steelers, Ravens, Bills, Colts, Jets, Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers, and even Texans are, it's hard to imagine any scenario where the Browns have a winning season. Luckily, the Browns only play four of those teams in 2005, but somebody in the AFC has to finish with a losing record--in fact, several somebodies--and if not Cleveland, then whom?

Posted at 10:00 PM6 comments

Friday, August 19, 2005

Sad News, Sports Fans

by Alex

Recently, the Indians took the first step to breaking up the famed FCs by designating Francisco Cruceta for assignment. And now, the Cleveland Browns are on the way to breaking up the Andr* Davises. The team is allowing Andre to seek a trade because apparently he's unhappy and been underperforming in training camp. The disgruntledness is likely deserved, considering Andre had a DVOA of 34.1% last season and 34.4% in 2003 and is still vying for the 3rd WR slot with a schmo like Frisman Jackson. Fortunately, as seen with William Green, players seeking trades for themselves often come back with nothing.

But the most disheartening news is that The Diop Era has ended in Cleveland. DeSagana's agent, Leon Rose (who also represents God, how did that happen?), announced that Diop and the Mavericks agreed to a 3-year contract for over $6,000,000. What?! Avery Johnson, Dallas's head coach, comments, "A couple of years ago I probably wouldn't have done this deal." That's a good point, considering how Diop established his dominance in the NBA these past two seasons: 9.18 PER, .199 Player Winning Percentage, very impressive indeed. I'm not sure which is funnier: Johnson's quote that Sagana is "ready to just take off", or Diop's giddiness for finally getting to prove what he's made of (as if we didn't already know).

On the bright side, September is only 17,806 minutes away. Leaving us to only imagine future Indians like #79 Ryan Garko or #61 Andrew Brown.

Posted at 3:14 PM2 comments

Thursday, August 18, 2005

Long Time No Blog

by Corey

Sorry about not posting anything for a few days; I suddenly had to run to Hungary on business. Anyway, a popular topic of conversation regarding the Indians lately--popular, that is, if my dad asking for "my take" about it and the Indians TV announcers spending way too much time discussing it during an extremely boring game are any indication--is the question of why the Indians perform so much better on the road than at Jacobs Field. After losing 3-0 to Chris Young and the Rangers (and by the way, thanks for nothing, jerks--Chris Young was the star of the one longshot scenario where I could conceivably win at Hacking Mass), the Indians are 28-31 at home and 36-25 on the road. Here are a few paraphrased suggestions for explaining this discrepancy, as proposed by a selection of Indians personalities in print and on the air:
  • Mike Hegan: at home, the Indians try too hard
  • Bob Wickman: Jacobs Field is not intimidating to other teams
  • Rick Manning: the Indians wear gray uniforms on the road
  • C.C. Sabathia: at home, the Indians are preoccupied with not disappointing their fans
  • Everyone: "It's just one of those things"
Obviously, I could tear apart any one of these arguments, but I won't waste your time. The point is, maybe it's not something that can be accounted for because maybe the Indians in fact play just as well at home as they do on the road.
               Home   Road
Runs scored 256 299
Runs allowed 238 264
Pyth. W-L 32-27 34-27
It's not such a big discrepancy after all. Won-lost records, like I repeatedly say, are susceptible to so many unforseen, uncontrollable variables that they are often neither good measures of what's happened so far in the season, nor good predictors of what's to come. I'm not about to do the research or anything, but I'd even suspect that all teams perform about as well on the road as they do at home, even when their won-lost records don't show it. Somebody's probably investigated this before, anybody have a link to the research?

In other Indians news, the team has taken action to (possibly) break up the FC's (Francisco/Fernando/Fausto Cruceta/Cabrera/Carmona) by designating Francisco Cruceta for assignment, which means we can still have him, but only if no one wants him. While I understand Cruceta has disappointed in AAA, it will sadden the contributors of this blog greatly if the trio dissolves before reaching the majors together.

Posted at 12:24 AM4 comments

Thursday, August 11, 2005

Playoff Odds Re-Re-Visited

by Corey

As of this morning, the Indians' chances of making the playoffs are higher than they've been since the beginning of July. According to Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds Report, there is now a 48.67% chance that the Tribe will reach the postseason (a 4.71% chance of winning the Central and a 43.97% chance of winning the wild card). Currently, the Indians are given the fifth-best chance of making the playoffs among American League teams, but the best chance of winning the wild card. Here, Alex has graphed the Indians playoff odds over the course of the whole season since April 20 (if the graph is too small to read, click on it for a larger version):

The Indians' Playoff Odds

Of the six AL teams that are still in contention, the Indians are the only one without a realistic shot at winning its division. Actually, the fact that they have even a 5% percent chance at catching Chicago surprises me, and speaks highly for how much better the Indians have been than the White Sox so far.

With the A's beating Anaheim literally as I type this, the Indians' postseason odds undoubtedly just received a little boost, as the chances they could overtake Oakland, according to BP, are far slimmer than the chances of catching the overrated Angels. Now a sweep of a the Royals would be awfully nice...

Posted at 5:37 PM3 comments

As Seen on TV

by Alex

Well, ESPN.com is sort of like TV. Anyways, my wacky tribute to C.C. Sabathia and his delectable headwear stylings has been featured by Paul Lukas in his "Uni-Watch" column on ESPN.com. It's irrelevant to point this out, but I just feel like gloating a little.

Update: Well, after approximately the 12,000th hit of the day, the server hosting my personal website went crazy and is now recuperating in the ICU.

Posted at 1:48 PM0 comments

Wednesday, August 10, 2005

Hats for Bats

by Alex

Last night, at approximately 1AM, TBS showed the cinematic masterpiece Major League II. Despite extreme exhaustion, I persevered and watched the whole thing because well, how often is Major League II on television? During the course of the movie, I was continually reminded of how far off the mark the sequel falls when compared to the original, Major League.

But then again, II does add a couple of important pieces missing from the original:
  • Slider, who is actually involved in the dugout brawl started when Rick "Wild Thing" Vaughn jumps Willie Mays Hayes. Later, Slider is seen with bandages and a cast.
  • Jack Parkman. Parkman, if you remember, is the neo-Clue Haywood--an evil slugger on the rival team (this time the Chicago White Socks). In a twist, Parkman begins the season with the Indians only to be traded to Chicago after owner and GM Roger Dorn (!) runs out of money. Okay, maybe that was a stupid twist.
  • Um... Hiroshi "Kamikaze" Tanaka? Nevermind.
I guess Slider was the only addition worth crap in Major League II. Lest we forget the horrifying additions: Omar Epps as Hayes, the magical appearance of Wild Thing's "girlfriend," Rube Baker, and so on.

Every time I get on the topic of Major League, I think of the eerie similarities between the movie and the early to mid-90's Indians. Has anyone else thought of these before?
  • Kenny Lofton as Willie Mays Hayes.
  • Sandy Alomar as Jake Taylor, the wise veteran catcher who was a "clubhouse leader" and knew how to "call a game."
  • Jim Thome as Roger Dorn, the all-hit no-field third baseman.
  • Albert Belle as Pedro Cerrano, the intimidating, slugging, corner outfielder.
  • Dennis Martinez/Orel Hershisher as Eddie Harris, the extremely old, "crafty" veteran pitcher.
  • Julian Tavarez as Rick Vaughn. This one a bit more of a stretch, but often we forget how surprisingly dominant Julian was in his rookie year. He came out of nowhere to post an ERA+ of 190.
Now if only Mike Hargrove had a heart attack and Sandy Alomar became player manager after Jim Thome bought the team...

Posted at 3:41 PM8 comments

Monday, August 8, 2005

Tastes Like Quicken

by Corey

The proposed logo for the Cavs' renamed arena has been rejected by city officials for being too ugly. Here is what it currently looks like.

I happen to agree that this logo is extremely ugly. It seems to be made up of colors that, while close, are not quite in the pre-existing Cavalier color scheme (yellow, black, and bright red instead of gold, dark blue, and slightly less-bright red); how would that look on the arena floor, for one? The designers are supposedly going to submit an altered version, but I'm not hopeful for the future attractiveness of this logo. Firstly, I'll take it as a given that the Quicken Loans Arena logo will necessarily incorporate the logo of Quicken Loans (this), which is itself rather ugly. Secondly, I imagine the marketing people are hell-bent on including the phrase "The Q" in giant letters, or, at the very least, a giant letter Q. So, however they tweak or rearrange the current design, my guess is it will have the same basic elements, and therefore still be too big, too busy, in the wrong colors, in a stupid font, and altogether very ugly.

This brings me to my problem with the name "The Q". It's not that I necessarily have a problem with corporately-named stadiums (we were fortunate to last so long as a city without one but it was inevitable), or the name "Quicken Loans Arena" specifically (it could be worse), but I'm against the nickname "The Q" because of the way they're marketing it. In 1994, no one said "we're going to name it Jacobs Field but we want everyone to call it The Jake to give that endearing quality". And they certainly didn't choose the name Jacobs Field based on the potential of people eventually calling it The Jake. What kills me is "The Q" probably will catch on instantly because, hey, who's going to say "Quicken Loans Arena"?

I'm sure Alex will touch on all of this when he publishes his third "Are They Improved?" article (you'll see), but I wanted to share my initial thoughts.

Posted at 1:11 AM2 comments

Friday, August 5, 2005

Happy Comeback Day!

by Corey

Today is one of our favorite Mistake by the Lake holidays, Comeback Day! It was four years ago today that the Indians executed the greatest comeback in baseball history, and we're here to help you celebrate.

If your memories of that fateful day are a little fuzzy, maybe this will help. In honor of the 12-run defecit overcome by these brave men, here's a little recap and a "where are they now?" on each of the 12 greatest Comeback Heroes, in more-or-less game-chronological order.

Dave Burba. It was Burba who had the clever idea of royally sucking in the first place, so that The Comeback could ensue. Burbs made it only two innings, getting yanked with the based loaded and nobody out in the 3rd. He was charged with 7 runs. By that time, the wheels were clearly in motion. The man unquestionably knew what he was doing! Remarkably, Burba's pro career lasted until June of this year, when he was released by the AAA affiliate of the Astros. He's probably working on his memoirs.

Mike Bacsik. Making his big league debut, the 23-year-old rookie Bacsik took his cue from the veteran before him, seemingly putting the finishing touches on a massive Mariners blowout. In a gutsy display of guts and courage, he took one for the team, pitching 6 garbage innings and allowing only 7 more runs. Bacsik currently sports a 4.62 ERA and is batting .231/.286/.231 for the Scranton-Wilkes Barre Red Barons of the International League.

Russell Branyan. With a solo shot in the 7th, Russell made it 14-3 and took the first bite out of Seattle's 12-run lead. He also got hit by a pitch and scored in the 8th. And in the 9th, he whiffed characteristically with the Tribe trailing 14-9, which was a crucial move on Branyan's part because it allowed all five of the tying runs to be scored with two outs, thus maximizing total drama. Currently, Russell is somehow having a great year in Milwaukee. He's added walks to his repertoire of home runs and strikeouts, to become a Three True Outcomes champion, hitting .265/.373/.517.

Jim Thome. His two homers (in the 4th and to lead off the 8th) represented one of the best offensive performances by an Indian that day, but Jim Thome's contributions get overlooked because they occured before the real fireworks started. As we all know, Thome is currently sucking the marrow out of Ed Wade's balance sheet and occasionally playing first base in Philadelphia.

Marty Cordova. Immediately following Thome's second home run and Branyan's HBP, Cordova made it 14-8 with a home run of his own. He would also double in the next inning, finishing tied for the team lead with 8 total bases. After missing all of 2004, Cordova announced his retirement the day before spring training in 2005 so that he wouldn't have to suit up as a Devil Ray.

Rich Rodriguez. With the Indians still down 14-9, the 38-year-old Rodriguez cruised through the top of the ninth in 7 pitches, inducing ground outs from all three of the batters he faced. His was a crucial performance out of the bullpen, because it satisfied the need for a crafty geriatric lefty to compliment the drunken fatass and the psychotic redneck who would follow. R-Rod retired from baseball following 3 appearances for Anaheim in 2003.

Eddie Taubensee. Backup catcher Eddie "Pigeon Lake" Taubensee pinch hit for DH Juan Gonzalez in the 6th and played the rest of the game. His only time on base was in the 9th when he led off with a single. But his greatest contribution to The Comeback was clearly the act of hoisting Kenny Lofton high in the air and carrying him around upside-down after Kenny scored the winning run. I'll never forget it. Taubensee retired at the end of the 2001 season, in fact he didn't even make the Indians' playoff roster, ending his career on the last day of the regular season. His current whereabouts are unknown.

Einar Diaz. Even though his major offensive contribution in 2001 was getting hit by a ton of pitches (nearly a quarter of the team total), Einar "Use Your Brainar" Diaz singled in the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings of The Comeback, scoring each time. I remember very distinctly that, with 2 out and the bases loaded in the 9th, still trailing by 5 runs, Einar faced a 2-strike count and fouled off at least 2,300 pitches before finally singling to left. With each foul ball I think I carved another hole in the couch cushions from being so nervous. Currently, Einar is the backup catcher for the Cardinals, and is doing it in style, hitting .213/.222/.292.

Omar Vizquel. Two batters after Einar, Omar Vizquel provided the most incredible moment of The Comeback, as you already know, when he hit a 3-2 Kaz Sasaki pitch down the right field line for a 3-run, game-tying triple, exactly as Charlie Manuel had instructed him to do. Very few Cleveland sports moments in my lifetime can compare to this one. Currently, as you also already know, Omar plays for the Giants and is having a decent year, hitting .292/.352/.387 (which is still not remotely as good as Jhonny Awesomestix' .294/.354/.522).

Kenny Lofton. Kenny was on-base five times in the game (four singles, one walk) and ended up scoring three times, including both the tying and winning runs. Along with Omar, he was definitely one of the biggest stars of the night. This season, he is starting in center field for his ninth big league team, the Phillies, and hitting .319/.377/.389.

John Rocker. The biggest jackass on the team, it turns out, gave the best performance by an Indians pitcher. Rocker pitched a 1-2-3 top of the 11th and struck out the side, which was more than Wickman, Rodriguez, Bacsik or Burba could say. You may have seen the news story about Rocker from earlier this summer; he had a stint with the independent Long Island Ducks but was cut in late June. At that time, he had also grown himself an unprecedented mullet. There is a picture of the mullet at his official site, along with pictures of Rocker wearing an NYPD hat, petting a kitten, and hangin' with a handicapped kid. What a mensch!

Jolbert Cabrera. "Unbelieveable! Unbelieveable! The Indians... dead and buried... have completed the miracle!" I can still hear Tom Hamilton's words when Jolbert Cabrera singled in the winning run in the bottom of the 11th. Currently, Jolbert stars for the SoftBank Hawks of Fukuoka, Japan, where, my extensive research tells me, his statistics include 94 tournament several, 98 hits, 327 at bats, a .363 coming out base ratio, a .401 long batting average, 54 three swings, 31 Annie Oakleys (?), 3 dead spheres, and a 34 shooting participation. I mean, what a year he's having!!

So there you have it. I recommend having a drink, perhaps a Burning River Pale Ale, in honor of this truly great memory. Happy Comeback Day, everybody.

Posted at 8:00 AM13 comments

Wednesday, August 3, 2005

Revenge of the Poll

by Corey

Our blog has been poll-less for a while due to some technical matters but now it's back. With football training camps in full swing, we decided to look over the Browns' current roster amd pick out a few early Obscure Brown candidates. Once the regular season starts, of course, we'll return to doing weekly "Born and Raised" features, complete with "Obscure Brown of the Week", my personal favorite category.

Here's some information about a couple of obscure players. Obviously, some or all of these guys won't make the roster at the outset of the season, but if last season is any indicator (and let's hope it's not), we'll be seeing plenty of each of them. Also, Leigh Bodden is an obvious choice but Alex and I had some debate about whether he was truly obscure after all the attention we'd given him last year. Read this and then vote in our brand new poll, over on the right, there.

Dyshod Carter (DB, #35). Dyshod was the OBOTW twice during the second half of last season and the RPHSTMOTW honoree three times. He has a slightly below fair chance of making the Week 1 roster. He plays well on special teams.

Javiar Collins (OL, #75). Javiar "Caviar" Collins has yet to appear in a game for the Browns, but was on the practice squad last year. He has excellent nickname potential. He's unlikely to make the Week 1 roster, I'd say.

Nick Eason (DL, #98). Nick was added to the practice squad midway through last season, and eventually saw action in a real live Browns game, recording two tackles and garnering OBOTW honors. He has a remote chance of making the Week 1 roster.

Sultan McCullough (RB, #20). Sultan, whose name is pronounced SOO-tawn, is clearly fourth on the running back depth chart, so he will not be making the team on Opening Day unless the Browns do something crazy like they did last year with Dee Brown. But he has an excellent name.

Clint Stickdorn (OL, #74). Stickdorn is on this list for purely name-related reasons. His odds of making the roster in any week of the season are long, but then, consider the Browns tradition of offensive line injuries/suckiness...

Mason Unck (LB, #53). Unck never won OBOTW last season but he did win RPHSTMOTW twice. He has an outside shot at an Opening Day roster spot, mainly for his special teams prowess.

Posted at 4:32 PM1 comments

Monday, August 1, 2005

Are They Improved? The Bench

by Alex

Last edition, I evaluated the Cavaliers' prospective starting lineup and today I will delve into the changes made to the projected bench. Before I begin, last week I assumed for the sake of argument that Sarunas Jasikevicius would sign with the Cavaliers; he did not. Therefore, whenever the team does find a replacement for Jeff McInnis on the roster (be it Damon Stoudamire, Marko Jaric, or even Tierre Brown, or how about the Ghost of John Crotty?) I guess I ought to evaluate the replacement versus McInnis. But my commentary from last time still holds water: as long as next year's starting PG is merely league-average, he'll be an improvement on Jeff McInnis.

Once again, the second team ought to be Eric Snow, Luke Jackson, Sasha Pavlovic, Donyell Marshall, and Anderson Varejao. Unfortunately, the ways things ought to be probably won't enter the mind of Mike Brown. Ira Newble, with all of his defensive-skill (to the tune of a DRating of 3 points/100 possessions worse than league average and a defensive +/- of only -.4) and "veteran leadership", will likely be the Sixth Man for the Cavs, as sucky as that may be. Nevertheless I will pretend that he is relegated to the third team like he so thoroughly deserves after last year's performance because it makes the most sense and it makes the Cavaliers look better in this evaluation. With my fantasy-world roster's rotation in place, will the bench be improved?
  • Eric "Lake Effect" Snow is definitely in decline, and I doubt any sane basketball fan could argue that. The problem isn't the decline itself, it's that Snow wasn't very good to begin with. Sure, like Ira Newble, he is known as a Defensive Stopper, but the numbers seem to back it up (good career DRating numbers for a PG and a defensive +/- last year of -3.7). I find last year's numbers a little suspect however, because any PG backing up Jeff McInnis for most of the year will have improved defensive numbers, especially in +/-.

    Even conceding that Snow is a good defensive PG, his offensive game absolutely disappeared last year. Nearly every offensive rate statistic took a nose-dive last year--it's pretty shocking. Even if Snow gains back 80% of what he lost in offense, he'll still suck.

  • Luke Jackson is still an unknown, but I am excited to see him play after looking at his college statistics. He steadily improved each of his three seasons at the University of Oregon and he's very efficient on offense. I expect him to be a great shooter and otherwise average on offense, and below-average on defense.

  • The way I remember Sasha Pavlovic's 2004-05 season is one of misuse. Multiple times Pavlovic snatched up an opponent's turnover and attempted to lead a fast break only to dribble the ball off his foot or trip over his shoe-laces or simply have the ball stolen back. Dribbling is not his forte. Frustratingly, the team never consistently took advantage of Sasha's one skill: shooting. He shot .385 on three-pointers, and it likely would've been significantly higher had he been open more often. It's just that the ball never seemed to find Pavlovic in the right spot for an open three. I can't be sure whether this is Sasha's or everyone else's stupidity, but it should come to a stop.

    Pavlovic legitimately only has one basketball skill: he can't drive the lane, Lord knows he can't defend, he can't dribble, I doubt he dunks very well, but he shoots better than average to say the least. If the Cavaliers instruct Pavlovic that his job is merely to knock down three's and feed him the ball when he's open, I think that he could become a decent shooting threat off the bench--nothing special, but at least he's young.

  • Local sports media heaped praise on Danny Ferry for signing Larry Hughes for a monster contract, finally attracting a big-time free agent to the Cavaliers. However, the best signing Danny Ferry has made (so-far) is 32 year old forward Donyell Marshall. Early in his career Marshall played good defense, snatched up rebounds, and knocked down open jumpers. But, in the past two seasons or so it seems that Donyell has revamped his game into a being a legitimate three point threat. His Rebound Rates have fallen, but his 3FG% has risen dramatically too. Mainly on the back of his great three-point shooting, Marshall's ORating in 2004-2005 was a Jordanesque 13% better than league average.

    Normally, that kind of jump would scream "Fluke" to me, but there are a few encouraging signs. (1) Marshall's improvement in three-point percentage has been essentially consistent over the past four seasons: .310; .379; .403; .416. (2) Not only did his 3FG% improve dramatically, but so did his FT%. I doubt you could attribute this simply to luck. To have his 3FG% and FT% improve suggests that Marshall is legitimately a better shooter. Also contributing to Marshall's revitalization is his benching. In 2003-2004, Marshall threw up 12.4 shot attempts per 48 minutes. Last season, that dropped to 9.1. He was able to pick his shots and was efficient.

    Ipso facto, Donyell Marshall is a good shooter, and I expect him to retain his efficiency and accuracy from behind the arc. But will Marshall be an improvement over last season's backup PF? That would be Anderson Varejao, but since he is still with the team, let's compare Marshall with the man he essentially replaced on the roster: Tractor "Robert" Traylor. It's very easy to see that Marshall will be a significant upgrade to Traylor. Despite Tractor's size, Marshall is his equal if not better when it comes to rebounding. Traylor also fancies himself a good shooter with all of those stupid top-of-the-key bricks, but he is by no stretch of the imagination close to Donyell. The only advantage Tractor has is that he will likely be cheaper (the terms of Marshall's contract aren't public yet).

  • It seems that Anderson "I need a better nickname than Wild Thing because it's already been taken in Cleveland history, or Sideshow Bob because not only is that taken, it's also stupid, although maybe I should have thought of that before I chose this haircut" Varejao will be moved from backup PF to backing up Zydrunas now that Traylor was replaced by the smaller Marshall. I expect a normal amount of improvement from a 22-year old in the NBA. In fact, I'd be very happy if Varejao simply played the same way and only improved his FT% from .535. The Cavaliers might be at a disadvantage against bigger centers this upcoming season because Anderson is so much smaller than Tractor Traylor, but I'm not too worried. Varejao is a very good rebounder and is quick for a big man too. The Cavs could turn the tables such that when Anderson is in against a bulking slow center they exploit the opposing behemoth's lack of mobility rather than the opponent exploiting Anderson's lack of strength.
I'll refrain from commenting on possible third teamers like Steve Blake, John Gilchrist, Pinkus or Stinkus because in the end, who really cares about them? I think that the Cavaliers definitely have the pieces to have a good bench, and a one very strong offensively. Snow is known for defense, and I guess some would say Varejao is too (although I think he more of a rebounding machine instead); otherwise Luke, Sasha, and Donyell are all shooters. If the bench shapes up the way I've predicted, we'll probably see a lot of press overstating their skill around December or January since good offense is always easier to see on the court than good defense. I can only hope Mike Brown knows what he is doing.

Posted at 6:45 PM1 comments