No, no rain. But plenty of baseball; we went to Friday's 6-5 victory, and we just got back from this afternoon's game at Safeco Field. The Indians lost 3-2 as the offense seemed to dominate Mariners starter Ryan Franklin but didn't get hits at the right moments, and C.C. Sabathia, despite pitching about the best he's pitched in a month, gave up three solo home runs, and that was that. The question of "what's wrong with C.C." is only going to grow bigger until he finally wins a game, but frankly he displayed a few encouraging signs today. He was perfect through three innings, walked only one and allowed 4 hits in 7 innings. The only problem may have been the fact that he couldn't figure out Ichiro Suzuki, who hit two of the three home runs. We also feel that C.C. should be allowed to DH a bit when his confidence needs a boost, especially with the bench being a bit weak now (with Hafner out and Coco back in Cleveland).

Safeco Field is one of the nicer parks we've been to. The views of downtown and the mountains from the upper deck are pretty sweet, but then the views are sweet everywhere in Seattle. The food selection is about as good as it is at any park in the majors. One could go wild writing "Concessions Reviews" in Seattle. Great hot dogs, wide selection, a few unusual items (like chocolate-covered strawberries on a skewer). The signature "Ichiroll" sushi is really good, too.

The fans are really polite here. They love their local boy Grady Sizemore. And instead of taunting us for wearing Indians jerseys, we heard of lot of "Hey, some Indians fans!" We had a few friendly chats with the natives.

Best/worst things about Seattle:

1. beautiful vistas
2. good food
3. friendly people
562. HORRIBLE traffic

We probably won't be at tomorrow's Indians game, though we may drive down to Tacoma for some PCL action on Monday. Until then, stay sexy, Cleveland.

I don't like this notion that you're either a buyer or a seller at the trade deadline. Somehow, if the Indians trade Bob Wickman, it means they're playing for next year? It's possible to trade Bob Wickman right now and still make/intend to make the playoffs. I would even say it's possible to trade Bob Wickman right now and maintain the same superb level of performance out of the bullpen for the rest of the season. To do this doesn't even require getting major league talent in return.

And I'm not saying this now as a reaction to Wickman's blown save agaisnt the A's (which was quite sucky, don't get me wrong). The fact of the matter is, Wickman has put up some pretty good numbers so far in 2005, which has come as a major surprise to me. But contrary to popular belief, he has not been the best reliever on the team... more like fourth-best. I can't help but feel that Wickman is playing on borrowed time; each day he narrowly escapes without blowing the game, I breathe a sigh of relief. With his perceived value so high at the moment due to saves and all-star-ness, it would be advisable to trade Wickman to a GM who believes his team needs veteran leadership, "closer magic", and/or really fat players. I'd happily take a few dreaded "minor leaguers" in return ("minor leaguers" being a derisive term in traditional trade analysis).

The Indians are neither buyers nor sellers. If they do nothing, they'll be fine. But I'd love to see them sell Wickman. Maybe some young whippersnapper out there would like to re-enact Richie Sexson's prime years for us, but in a Cleveland uniform.

Meanwhile, the Tribe is off to Seattle, and--surprise!--so am I, and--surprise!--so is Alex. We'll be sure to share some Indians coverage from our trip to Safeco Field. Stay tuned.

Right on schedule, it's part 7 in our ongoing and increasingly drawn-out journey through Cleveland uniform number history! We've established by now that we're more or less dealing in Browns, having left the Indians and Cavs behind several numbers ago. Here are links to the first 6 installments, for those of you who are just tuning in:

1. The Jersey Numbers: 0 to 9
2. The Jersey Numbers: 10 to 19
3. The Jersey Numbers: 20 to 29
4. The Jersey Numbers: 30 to 39
5. The Jersey Numbers: 40 to 49
6. The Jersey Numbers: 50 to 59

And now, the players.

#60 - Otto Graham

Browns, '46-'55

In the ESPN dealie that inspired this whole Jersey Numbers series, Otto Graham was deemed the greatest #60 of all time, in any sport. Most fans, however, probably picture Graham wearing his other number, #14 (in which I had him a close second behind Larry Doby), for a couple of reasons. First, Graham wore #14 for four of the six seasons he spent in the NFL (remember, the Browns played in the AAFC prior to 1950). And second, the Browns retired #14 in Graham's honor. But in Graham's legendary ten-year career with the Browns, he played more seasons as #60 (6) than as #14. And while I don't want to claim that he necessarily played better in one uniform number or another, you could certainly make the case that the Browns, as a team, enjoyed more success from 1946-51 (five titles, one loss in the championship game) than from 1952-55 (two titles, two losses in the championship game). It's a moot point, though, because the Browns were truly dominating all throughout Graham's career. I simply wonder why we remember him more for the one number than the other.

Runners-up: John Wooten (Browns, '59-'67): was one of the Browns' many Pro Bowl offensive linemen of the 60's. Bill Willis (Browns, '46-'53): wore #60 for just the last two years of his historic career.

#61 - Mike Baab

Browns, '82-'87, '90-'91

The Browns of the 80's were known more for their defense than their offense, but the offense was still quite a good one, and it was built around a strong offensive line. Mike Baab, the center, played 7 games in 1982 as a fifth-round draft choice, missed one game the following year, and then played in every single game for the entire rest of his career as a Brown (which included a second go-round two seasons after they traded him to New England). It may seem something of a cliche to praise a great offensive lineman for being an iron man, but lacking real statistics, it's one of the only bits of data we have. The Browns have had some amazing centers throughout their history, pushing Baab down the list a but, but there's no doubt he was a great player.

Runners-up: Steve Everitt (Browns, '93-'95): was another great center known for remaining loyal to Cleveland even after becoming a Raven.

#62 - Cliff Lewis

Browns, '46-'51

Lewis was not only a standout safety on defense, he was Otto Graham's backup. Like many of the stars of the Browns' AAFC days, he is often overlooked, mainly because so many of his contributions are not in any NFL record books. By the time the Browns joined the NFL, Lewis was already on the decline. But Ace Davis ranks him as the fifth-best safety in Browns history, and that's for playing only six seasons. And if we counted the AAFC years alongside the NFL ones, Lewis' 30 interceptions would tie him for fourth in Browns history, and his 9 interceptions in 1948 would tie him for third-best (single season) in team history, and this is when there were significantly fewer games in a season.

Runners-up: Lin Houston (Browns, '46-'53): wore #62 for the last two years of his career.

#63 - Cody Risien

Browns, '79-'83, '85-'89

While he may not face much competition at his own jersey number, Cody Risien is among the best offensive linemen in Browns history, and that's saying something. He is generally regarded as the best member of the solid O-line of the 80's. This notion might have something to do with the two Pro Bowls he made in '86 and '87 (when he was one of eight Browns to be selected!). As a seventh-round draft pick (!), Risien was the starting left guard in his rookie season in 1979 before becoming a fixture at right tackle for the rest of his career. He was the starter at that position every year until he retired, except for 1984, which he missed due to injury (I think).

Runners-up: Rafael Betancourt (Indians, '03-'05): has been one of the bullpen's most reliable contributors for three years. Barry Darrow (Browns, '74-'78): played his entire 5-year career as a tackle for the Browns.

#64 - Jim Ray Smith

Browns, '56-'62

In Browns history, this is one of the best--and certainly deepest--jersey numbers. Ten times has a Browns #64 gone to the Pro Bowl, five of them being Jim Ray Smith, who was selected every year from '58 to '62. During that span, he served alongside some of the greatest offensive linemen in NFL history (Groza, Schafrath, McCormack, Hickerson, among others). Smith dabbled as a tackle and a defensive end, but it was as the starting left guard that he made his mark. Ace Davis ranks him the second-best guard in Browns history, behind only Gene Hickerson, and just ahead of the second-best #64 in Cleveland history, Abe Gibron. And while I'm not going to include him as a runner-up, I would be remiss if I didn't at least mention the Browns' current #64, our hero, long snapper Ryan Pontbriand. There, happy Alex?

Runners-up: Abe Gibron (Browns, '50-'56): made four Pro Bowls as another of the Browns' legendary blockers of the 50's and 60's. Joe DeLamielleure (Browns, '80-'84): is the only Hall of Famer of the bunch, but played most of his career in Buffalo. "Turkey" Joe Jones (Browns, '70-'71, '73, '75-'78): was a talented defensive end; only wore #64 for four seasons.

#65 - John DeMarie

Browns, '67-'75

If it seems like I'm repeating myself when I point out John DeMarie's being a solid Browns lineman who came out of nowhere as a late-round draft pick (sixth-round, in this case), it's because I am. Doing this "Jersey Numbers" series, I have really come to appreciate the Browns tradition of cultivating unheralded prospects into standouts, especially along the offensive line and on defense. It makes me wonder if perhaps, back in the day, late-rounders such as these were more likely to pan out than they are today, possibly due to poorer scouting. If this is the case, then every franchise's history may be dotted with guys like this, and I'm making a big deal out of nothing. But if not, then the Browns organization of the 50's through the 80's is all the more impressive. DeMarie, a guard who played on both the right and the left, came out of LSU to become one of Leroy Kelly's chief blockers.

Runners-up: Chuck Noll (Browns, '53-'59): Is remembered as a Steelers coach but spent his entire playing career in Cleveland. Henry Sheppard (Browns, '76-'81): was a major contributor on the offensive line for more than five seasons.

#66 - Gene Hickerson

Browns, '58-'60, '62-'73

I realize it's probably too late for Gene Hickerson to receive much Hall of Fame support now, but he deserves it. He's unquestionably the best guard in Browns history. He made the Pro Bowl six times and was one of three guards named to the NFL's all-60's team. Despite missing the 1961 season with a broken leg, in the years he did play, he never missed a single game, finally appearing in 202 games (165 consecutively), fourth-most in Browns history. And though credit should go to the rest of the offensive line, it speaks for Hickerson's greatness that three of the backs who ran behind him ended up in the Hall of Fame (Mitchell, Brown and Kelly). It was also due to a close friendship with Hickerson that Elvis Presley called the Browns his favorite team. If that doesn't merit some Hall of Fame consideration, what does?

Runners-up: Tony Jones (Browns, '88-'95): started at tackle for the Browns in the early 90's.

#67 - Sid Williams

Browns, '64-'66

If "Obscure Brown of the Week" is your favorite Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times feature, then this one's for you. Who's Sid Williams, you ask? I have no idea... but he gets the nod at #67 by virtue of appearing in 41 games--18 more than Chuck Hutchison and 11 more than Melvin Fowler (so far). Yes, the Melvin Fowler. That should clue you in to the sort of players I had to research to find the best #67 in Cleveland history. Williams also has a leg up over his chief competition, because, unlike the other guys, he once scored a touchdown (on a fumble recovery, perhaps?), returned a punt (for 0 yards), returned a kickoff (for 0 yards), and caught an interception (gaining 0 yards). This is a nice little career for an obscure linebacker/defensive end, I suppose. Anybody out there remember this guy?

Runners-up: Chuck Hutchison (Browns, '73-'75): appeared in 23 games at offensive guard. Melvin Fowler (Browns, '02-'04): has appeared in 30 games so far at guard and center.

#68 - Robert E. Jackson

Browns, '75-'85

Here we have yet another standout on the offensive line who came from low expectations. An undrafted free agent out of Duke, Jackson played all three offensive line positions for the Browns, but mostly guard. He remained a starter for his entire 11-year career, blocking mainly for the two Pruitts and protecting mainly Brian Sipe. His career statistics include a very unusual accomplishment for an offensive lineman: he returned five kickoffs, gaining a total of 74 yards (one per year from 1976 to 1980, with a long return of 21 yards in '77). I can't fathom the circumstances that led to a 245-pound guard returning five kickoffs; I guess it goes to show anything's possible.

Runners-up: Ed King (Browns, '91-'93): played guard for three seasons, appearing in 38 games.

#69 - Jim Kanicki

Browns, '63-'69

Here's another uniform number with a relatively sparse field, although Jim Kanicki, at least, was a solid player. He started at defensive tackle for seven seasons on some pretty damn good Browns teams. Ace Davis ranks him the 10th-best defensive tackle in franchise history. Unfortuantely, that's about all I can think to say about him, as there's not much information out there. I hate to end on such an uninteresting note, but that's the way the cookie crumbles.

Runners-up: Dan Fike (Browns, '85-'92): was a key member of the offensive line of the late 80's.

Let's skip the baseball for today; the season is too long. Donyell Marshall agreed to be the newest Cavalier earlier this week, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas's best friend and extremely (over-)hyped point guard Sarunas Jasikevicius's (pronounced Sauron Jurevicius) deal is rumored to be imminent. For the sake of argument, let's assume that he does sign, therefore leaving the Cavaliers a lineup next season of: Jasikevicius, Hughes, The Bron, Gooden Plenty, and Z. The second team ought to be Lake Effect Snow, Luuuke, Sasha Pavlovic, Donyell Marshall, and Anderson Varejao, with scrubs like Ira Newble, John Gilchrist and Martynas Andriuskevicius rounding out the roster.

Putting aside salary cap issues for now, will this team be an improvement over last year?

• Last year Jeff McInnis was the starting point guard for virtually the entire season until some general stupidity by both J-Mac and the coaches benched for a few games down the stretch. For the season, McInnis had a 12.4 PER, and an ORtg/DRtg of 108/111. That's pretty bad--suprisingly bad considering that McInnis played as a league-average PG down the stretch for the Cavs the year before. So, if Sarunas starts for the Cavaliers and is merely league-average (15 PER and a ORtg/DRtg of 104/104), he'd be a significant upgrade over the 2004-2005 McInnis, or about the level of a 2003-2004 McInnis.
  
  
• Corey previously touched on Larry Hughes and what appears to have been a monster fluke contract year. I'll just say that even if he reverts to his career averages (which ain't too spectacular), Hughes will be a ridiculously large improvement on last year's garbage at starting SG.
  
  
• LeBron will improve without bound until he finally turns to pure energy and leaves our small planet behind.
  
  
• Drew Gooden Plenty's 2004-2005 season is definitely the outlier for his career so far. However, he's young enough that there is a legitimate chance that Gooden can actually sustain that production. Although, we might be noticing a trend: power fowards look really good while playing with LeBron (Boozer, Gooden, Varejao). You can't deny the positive effect LeBron has on his teammates' playing, but I think that all three of those PFs are legitimately good.
  
  Since I think Gooden is legimately good, it scares me to hear all these trade rumors about him since I doubt Danny Ferry can get a good return on Drew, much less spin him for two younger, better power forwards (as Paxson did by turning Tony Battie into Gooden and Varejao). I couldn't care less whether Gooden is too "offensive-minded," you put your best five players on the court to win. If they happen to be great offensive players you win 150-140. If they're great defensive players you win 80-75. Everyone's happy.
  
  
• Z is definitely in the decline-phase of his career. But thanks to LeBron, Z has revised his play from a post-up scorer to primarily a put-back rebounder. With hopefully the added scoring of Larry Hughes and subtraction of suck-machine Ira Newble, Ilgauskas can concentrate even more on getting offensive rebounds and taking only the best shots. Plus, it doesn't hurt that he's still a good poster-upper.

Well, that's enough about the Cavaliers for this week. I'll be back next week or so to discuss the changes on the bench for next season's Cavaliers. Also, has anyone heard any news concerning either DeSagana Diop or Dajuan Wagner? Both are unrestricted free agents yet I doubt any team has any interest in either. I hope that by some miracle both are signed by the same NBA team and the Dynamic Duo is not split up and Chef Willie can keep his job. Sadly, they'll probably end up in the NBDL or in a foreign league. Why can't GMs recognize talent when they see it?

While waiting out the Indians rain delay, I turned on ESPN Classic and saw the Art Modell episode of the new series "Top 5 Reasons You Can't Blame". The title pretty much explains it. They give you a bunch of reasons why it supposedly wasn't Art Modell's fault that the Browns moved to Baltimore. I shouldn't have to tell you that this is a stupid idea for a series. Naturally, I'm going to offer my response to each of ESPN's reasons.

First, they offer a couple that didn't make the Top 5:

7. Al Lerner. You'll notice that a lot of these items aren't so much "reasons you can't blame Art Modell" as they are "names of other people who possibly deserve a tiny, insignificant fraction of blame as well". Al Lerner, for example, was the man who introduced Modell to the Maryland officials who eventually made the move to Baltimore possible. This, however, absolves Modell of nothing. Once he decided he wanted to move the team, he was going to do so, regardless of who invited him and how they met. The show also vaguely implies that Lerner may have arranged the meeting because he already had an eye on being the New Browns owner himself. This seems pretty ridiculous too; how could Al Lerner have known then that a new franchise would even be created?
   
   
6. John Elway. The show argues that if it hadn't been for Elway, the Browns might have won a Super Bowl, which would have created such a swell of support and love from the fans and the city that it would have been impossible for the team to move. But firstly, a recent Super Bowl win is not necessarily an impediment to moving: see the 1980 Raiders. And secondly, there is no guarantee that such a victory would have solved Modell's money problems or even caused a swell of support from the city (ie: the local goverment--I don't mean the fans). But this whole line of thinking is incredibly pointless; I can make up "what if" scenarios (in which the Browns don't move) all day long. It's silly to blame Elway/Denver/anybody for preventing something that only might have happened anyway.

And now, the actual Top 5 Reasons:

5. Bill Belichick. The claim here is that, in making some of the fans upset (by getting rid of popular players, etc.), Belichick made the Cleveland business community sour on the Browns, which caused financial problems for Modell. I find this suggestion laughable. Belichick certainly caused tension among some Browns fans, but it never caused the Browns to become any less popular as a phenomenon. Cleveland always had been and always would be crazy for Browns football, and the local business community certainly understood this.
   
   
4. Al Davis and Robert Irsay. Because, you know, 14 years earlier, they showed Art Modell how money could be made by moving your franchise to a new city. As if it were such a hard concept to figure out. I mean, I'll buy this one to a point, but it's not Davis and Irsay I'd blame per se; rather, the system of professional sports economics itself--specifically, how it's possible for team owners to hold cities ransom for ridiculous sums of money by pitting them against other cities with more money to waste on luxury stadiums for rich people. So really, Al Davis and Robert Irsay were only examples of a larger problem. There was also a vague argument somewhere in here about how, since all the other NFL owners were such good friends with Modell, they all allowed the move to happen, when in fact they had the right to block it. But if they didn't try to block Davis or Irsay, they certainly weren't going to block Modell.
   
   
3. The Cleveland Indians. There were a couple of arguments here. One was that the Indians, in becoming insanely popular in 1995, drew fan interest (and thus money) away from the Browns that season. But Browns ticket sales in '95 were as good as they had been for many years (up until the announcement of the move, at least). What money, exactly, were the Indians getting that used to belong to the Browns? There was, of course, the money the Indians themselves used to pay as tenants of Municipal Stadium. One person on the show said the Indians, before moving into Jacobs Field, accounted for "forty percent of [the Browns'] revenue". This figure seems suspect to me. If the Browns depended that heavily on money from one of their tenants instead of, say, money from sponsors and their own ticket sales, then I have to question Art Modell's business sense. It's not as if there weren't a ton of NFL teams out there who played for many years in similar stadiums without the benefit of baseball team tenants. The one Indians argument I'm willing to buy is the suggestion that, with Jacobs Field such a smash success, Art Modell was more likely to feel entitled to a new stadium of his own. While I would argue that the on-field success of the 1995 Indians had little to do with the new stadium (and more to do with a smart front office), at the time, it was widely accepted that Jacobs Field was the reason the Indians were good all of a sudden. Modell may have bought into this, too.
   
   
2. Modell's Finances. In other words, he had no choice. This is clearly the biggest and most immediate reason the Browns moved to Baltimore. But how much of an absolution is it to say "it wasn't Modell's fault, it was all of the financial trouble he was in"? The TV show tries to place the blame for the financial mess on the changing face of NFL economics--basically, free agency and the salary cap--citing the example of Modell's needing to borrow money from a friend just to pay Andre Rison's signing bonus. But the changing face of the NFL affected the other franchises as well, and they all made out pretty well. This brings us to the crux of the matter: the Browns had an unfavorable stadium lease and no hope of getting a new stadium right away. Now, I don't know the details of the Browns' stadium lease at the time, but unless Modell was lying, it had to have been the worst freaking stadium deal in the NFL, because there are plenty of NFL teams who have survived without new stadiums: the Chiefs, the Bills, the Raiders, the Chargers, the Packers, the 49ers, the Cardinals, the Saints and the Cowboys. Of course, there's still the question of whether Modell was entirely straightforward about the direness of his financial situation. In baseball, it's well-documented that many owners (the Selig family chief among them) repeatedly lied and manipulated their books to make it look like they were losing money, when in fact they were doing just fine but wanted to extort money for a new stadium from the taxpayers. Whether this goes on in other sports, I'm not certain, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility.
   
   
1. Rock 'N' Roll. They're trying to be cute by blaming actual rock 'n' roll itself, but what they really mean is the construction of the Rock Hall (along with Jacobs Field, Gund Arena, the Science Center, and so on). I'll buy the fact that Modell felt cheated by being the only game in town without a fancy new building, but I won't buy the notion that he moved the team out of spite. This line of reasoning boils down to the exact same argument outlined above: he couldn't get the new stadium he wanted/felt he needed. There is, however, the question of whether the city, specifically Mayor White, did all they could--or anything at all--to approve a new football stadium. I definitely believe that the mayor didn't take Modell seriously when he threatened to move the Browns. In that regard, Mayor White (and whoever else makes such decisions) was at least indirectly responsible for the Browns' move. But it's hardly fair to blame the construction of the Rock Hall, etc. Those developments, I think it's safe to say, have been mostly good for Cleveland and did not preclude the construction of a new football stadium, especially since, in hindsight, the City of Cleveland did eventually build a new football stadium.

In conclusion, "Top 5 Reasons You Can't Blame Art Modell" did little to change my mind. If anything, I think we can break down the blame like this:

• Al Lerner: 0.000001%
• John Elway: 0.000001%
• Bill Belichick: 0.000001%
• Al Davis and Robert Irsay: 0.000001%
• The Cleveland Indians: 0.000001%
• Michael White/City government: 10%
• Cruel, insensitive fate: 10%
• Art Modell: 79.999995%

That's right, I feel the whole thing was about 80% Modell's fault, and this is more or less how I felt before I watched the TV program. So, yes, ESPN, I can and do blame the bastard for moving the Browns to Baltimore. The End.

I can neither confirm nor deny reports that the Indians just blew an entire four-game series to the In-Way-Over-Our-Heads-Sox, because I watched none of it. But they tell me it really happened.

You may be saying to yourself, "Was it not just two weeks ago that Corey from Mistake by the Lake reminded us that the Indians have actually played better than the Stupid Sox in spite of their record? If that were true, the Indians wouldn't have lost all those games! I'm so disillusioned!"

Now, everything I said was true, and in fact the Indians' statistical performance is still better than Chicago's (and Minnesota's) over the course of the season so far--it just happened that, over the last four games, the Indians played nothing like they had been playing before, In short, they suddenly sucked. These things happen. Teams get hot and cold. I'm not worried. There are two very logical reasons to believe the Indians will get back on track.

Firstly, not to beat a dead horse, but once again I would like to update you on Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Standings as of this morning:

            W     L     pct
Cleveland  52.3  39.7  .568
Chicago    49.1  40.9  .546
Minnesota  48.0  42.0  .533

These standings also show the Indians to be third-best in baseball, behind only Boston and Baltimore, and ahead, even, of every single team in the National League. Chicago has won 11.9 more games than we might expect given simply the quality of their offense, pitching, and defense. The Indians, meanwhile have won 5.3 fewer than we might expect. That's a remarkable swing of 17.2 games in the standings.

This clearly has something to do with Chicago's superb (and Cleveland's bad) record in one-run games. The conventional wisdom praises teams who win a lot of one-run games because it means they "know how to win" or "want it more" or some crap like that. But a one-run game is nothing more than a game where, for one day, the two teams happened to be more evenly matched than usual. Thus, if the White Sox beat the Royals 5-4, this represents a good accomplishment for the Royals, since we might have expected them to lose by a lot, and a bad accomplishment for the White Sox, for the same reason. In the standings, of course, it doesn't matter--but if we're interested in knowing how well a team truly performs, so that we can do a better job of predicting their future success or evaluating individual components of the team, etc., then we must realize that not all victories are created equal. For every game where the White Sox eked out a couple of runs, say, in the late innings to win a one-run game, there was a game where they led 5-0, say, and their bullpen gave up four at the end of the game. This latter game is not an example of superior grit, know-how, or managing, is it?

Now take a team whose wins tend to be by a lot and whose losses tend to be close. Say, the Indians. Doesn't a blowout win mean that you played better than you would have in a one-run win? And doesn't a one-run loss mean that you played better than you would have in a blowout loss? Are you following me? I maintain that the White Sox' record in one-run games is mostly due to luck.

But I digress. Back to the reasons why the Indians are going to do well. Number two: they have the easiest schedule in baseball between now and the end of the season. You are likely aware of this already, but consider the fact that we have yet to face the Devil Rays and Mariners, we still have the vast majority of our games against the Royals left, we're completely done with the Red Sox and Angels, and we're just three games away from being done with each of the Yankees and Rangers. In fact, the huge discrepency between the Indians' remaining schedule and everyone else's is probably the major reason why, in Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds Report, the Indians are still the favorites to win the wild card in spite of all the recent losses.

I know it's a little late to ride to the defense of Aaron Boone, but I was wondering lately how bad Boone had been this season and what Indians fans should expect. I compiled a ton of statistics breaking down Boone's season into thirds and was planning to impress everyone with fancy charts and graphs and maybe even a PowerPoint when, thankfully for you, the Cavaliers stole my thunder and re-signed Z.

(To those that are interested, Boone's poor start can be attributed to a ridiculously bad .101 Batting Average on Balls In Play (the AL average this year is .289) during the first part of the season. His walk rate and isolated slugging have been around his career averages. Encouragingly, he has been above average for the past month or so, hitting .276/.344/.471 compared to a Al thirdbasemen's average of .271/.336/.431. I expect Boone to hit near his career averages for the rest of the season, which would mean continuing his recent "hot" streak.)

I expect you've all heard that the Cavaliers will re-sign Zydrunas Ilgauskas to the tune of about $11 to $12 million per year for five years. After the 2006-2007 season, LeBron will likely sign a max contract with the Cavaliers--conservatively estimated around $12 million per year. Such that, during the ensuing 2007-2008 season, the team will have nearly $48 million committed to five players: LeBron, Z, Larry Hughes, "Lake Effect" Snow, and Ira Newble. No matter that the 2007-2008 salary cap ought to be just over $50 million or so.

The easiest conclusion to draw is that the team will be overpaying for Hughes and Z. Both will soon sign mammoth contracts and we can expect both to decline over the next few years. Plus we all expect everything to blow up in Dan Gilbert's face anyway, so it would be almost mandatory that his signings enter the team into salary cap hell. But the easiest conclusion is not always the truest.

The deal that Z just signed is, in fact, a pay-cut from his recently expired one. Last season, Ilgauskas earned $14.6 million. So, you could look at his new contract as merely an extension of his past one; which, albeit, was quite large. In a world where Stephon Marbury makes $16 million per year, and Tim Thomas $14, Zydrunas's contract is palatable.

A real culprit for the salary cap crunch is more likely Eric Snow and Ira Newble, neither one a starter, but together set to make over $10 million dollars in a couple of seasons despite being 33 and 32 respectively. I think that Jim Paxson's zest to sign that "veteran" free agent who can teach the Cavaliers how to win will really set the team back. This situation reminds me of the late 90's Indians: John Hart repeatedly wasting young talent for lesser-valued veterans. I have a suspicion that even young players "know" how to win, even without the winning expertise of an Ira Newble or Tractor "Robert" Traylor. LeBron James, anyone?

This is the fourth installment in my neverending quest to try all the food at Jacobs Field and assign it a grade. Here are parts 1, 2 and 3 in case you missed them. Or, if you missed them but are lazy, here's an overview:

• Johnny Applestix, A
• Soft Pretzel, A
• Bratwurst, A-
• Pierre's Ice Cream, A-
• Chicken Crepe, B+
• Chicken 'n' Waffles, B
• Ballpark Sushi, B-
• Potato Knish, C+
• Beef Burrito, C
• Subway, D+
• Barbecued Chicken, D
• Cappuccino Smoothie, D-

OK, the following reviews are from various Indians games in June and July, and were written right after I attended the games.

from June 14:

Strickland's Ice Cream. On the one hand, I am loyal to Pierre's, which in my mind is the Jacobs Field ice cream and always will be. On the other hand, I encourage a little healthy competition. As far as I know, Strickland's was added to the mix some time in the middle of May or June. If it's been there since the start of the season, I certainly wasn't aware of it. Judged solely on its own merits, I approve of Strickland's, because, like Pierre's, it's local, and the quality is pretty good. The product is softer than Pierre's, though not quite soft serve. In addition to cones, they offer "Arctic Twisters", which are blended, probably with a little milk, and served in a cup. These items are certainly a plus for their relative lack of mess. I had an Oreo Arctic Twister. While we were in line at Strickland's, my friend Scott happened to be eating a cone with Pierre's (Moose Tracks), which clearly incensed the Strickland's guy behind the counter. He forced Scott to try a spoonful of Strickland's Oreo ice cream, to which Scott, unfazed, said that he still preferred the Moose Tracks. "Dude, the Moose Tracks was made in January", he said. Now, whether or not Pierre's (or Strickland's, for that matter) is allegedly made fresh, not fresh, or whatever, I certainly don't think you can tell, and for that reason I don't care. I still prefer the Moose Tracks too. Grade: B+

from July 4:

Watermelon Smoothie. Last summer, I sampled a cappuccino "smoothie" from the bakery stand on the main concourse. This item, however, came from a little pushcart on the upper deck concourse, just behind home plate. They offer five or six different flavors of "smoothie". I knew this item would be bad, but it was so damn hot at the game that day, I figured what the heck. Now, as someone who makes smoothies for himself and others at least once a week, using real fruit (sliced and frozen, of course), actual fruit juice, and real sorbet or yogurt (many have suggested I am obsessed with fruit smoothies, which may be true), I think I am qualified to say that this watermelon concoction, which consisted, I think, of blended ice and syrup, was not a real fruit smoothie. As for its taste, I feel I have to come down harshly. The drink was far too sweet and didn't taste much like watermelon. Perhaps if I had been at the county fair, and wanted a slushie, then we might have talked. Grade: D-

New Orleans Smoked Sausage. These are available at several of the regular concessions stands where they offer bratwurst, etc. Naturally, I applaud the availability of different kinds of sausages, although I don't know where New Orleans smoked sausage ranks on my priority list of ballpark sausages, especially seeing as how I'm not entirely certain what one is, and since I still think they need to offer Polish sausage all around the ballpark. Anyway, the New Orleans dealie had a very good taste to it, sort of like a slightly spicy hot dog. I don't know if Bertman's mustard is the ideal condiment for such an item, but I just couldn't help myself. If you go to a lot of Indians games, this sausage is definitely worth your time at least once. Grade: B

from July 5:

Corned Beef on Rye. I've eaten some of the finest corned beef the country has to offer, from Manny's in Chicago to Slyman's in Cleveland to Koch's in Philadelphia, so I expected this sandwich to be pretty crummy. You'll find it in the Market Deli on the main concourse behind third base. I have to say it's not half bad; the rye bread is genuine, the corned beef was hot, though not quite of the best quality. And with a healthy dose of stadium mustard (a fine substitute for the spicy mustard one usually puts on a corned beef sandwich), I enjoyed it quite a bit. One complaint is that, like so many Jacobs Field items, you can only get this in "basket" form, ie: with chips. I don't want chips, and I don't want to pay for chips. Why do they insist on doing it this way? If they included chips, say, with all their hot dogs, they have to realize they'd sell fewer hot dogs. The same should be true across the board. Grade: B-

It looks as though the Cavs will sign Larry Hughes to play shooting guard. Five years, about 65 to 70 million. I thought I'd take a little statistical look at Hughes, alongside the two players many Cavs fans had hoped for, Ray Allen and Michael Redd:

                     Hughes  Allen    Redd

age in 2006            27      30      26
new contract length  5 yrs.  5 yrs.  6 yrs.
millions per year    ≈13.5   ≈16.0   ≈15.5

2005 O-Rating         110     117     110
2005 D-Rating         104     112     113
2005 player win%     .691    .657    .418

career O-Rating       100     113     113
career D-Rating       105     109     109
career player win%   .367    .623    .616

Note that the Cavs have reportedly signed Hughes for the exact same amount and length of time they offered to Redd. The table above would seem to reveal Hughes and Redd to be somewhat comparable, in fact, with Redd being a year younger and significantly better on offense, but Hughes being significantly better on defense. Hughes is clearly the best defender of the three. The biggest concern I have about him is that he appears to be a poor offensive contributor who happened to have a good year offensively in 2005 (10 points per 100 above his career average!). Whether or not this change represents a new level of ability or a fluctuation remains to be seen.

Ray Allen, being the oldest and most expensive, would probably have been the worst signing the Cavs could have made (out of the three). He has had the best career, clearly, but is now likely to fall off a bit.

Of course the most important part of this signing is the comparison between Hughes' numbers, above, and these:

                    Newble

2005 O-Rating        102
2005 D-Rating        109
2005 player win%    .288

career O-Rating      104
career D-Rating      108
career player win%  .398

I wonder if Cavs fans are a little too quick to dismiss another, in-house two-guard option: Luke Jackson. In 2006 he will be 24 years old and making about $2 mil. He didn't play enough in 2005 for us to put much stock in his statistics, making Luke something of an unknown. I hope Coach Brown at least gives Luke a chance to prove himself.

When you have cap space, as the Cavaliers do, it makes sense to use it--usually. If we assume (and I know it's a big assumption, but just for the sake of argument) that the Cavs re-sign Z and somebody else to play point guard, they will have made efficient use of their cap space for 2006; I simply hope, in the back of my mind, that the large contracts for Hughes and (perhaps) Ilgauskas do not restrict the (admittedly huge) amount of money we will need to offer LeBron two years from now.

Last night, we and two friends got to spend the third inning observing the Indians radio broadcasters up in the press box. Unfortunately, we only got to meet Tom Hamilton as he was leaving for his break, but Mike Hegan and Matt Underwood called the inning, which saw the Tigers score three and the Indians score one on a Boone solo shot. They also chatted with us a little during the breaks. It was great! Here we are with Hegan and Underwood:



We also got to meet Mike Mullenax ("Mully"), the engineer and producer of the broadcast. Here he is next to Hegan and Underwood's dinner (jambalaya and muffins), newly arrived from the kitchen, as Aaron Boone makes his home run trot in the background:



And here we are with Mully and our two friends, Ben and Aaron:



Note that we all have our top buttons undone, in honor of Travis "The Dakota Decapitator" Hafner. One of the interesting things you hear in the booth is the omnipresent, disembodied voice of Media Relations Director Bart Swain over the speakers, who provides information on scoring decisions, home run distances, etc., which the broadcasters then repeat, often word for word, on the air.

All in all, it was a blast, even though the Indians lost. We got to see the 2005 debut of Fernando Cabrera, one of the famed FC's (along with Francisco Cruceta and Fausto Carmona). Cabrera had something like a 0.00001 ERA in AAA, so he was definitely ready for the bigs. He pitched three scoreless innings, striking out four and walking none. Here is his first pitch:



It's always disappointing to see the Indians lose, but in the words of Mike Hegan: "Ooh, jambalaya!"

Today is the one-year anniversary of this blog! Hopefully it's the first of many. Reminiscing over all the good times got me to thinking about a few of my favorite Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times entries. Here would be my personal top five:

5. April Fool's Day. Specifically, "Born and Raised on the Pittsburgh Steelers" and "Cashing in on LeBron James". Though somehow I don't think anyone was fooled.
4. Jersey Numbers. I've done the first six installments (of an eventual ten; the link goes to the most recent edition), and yes, I know I've let long periods of time pass between updates, but don't worry, the project will be completed.
3. Alex's Q&A with 2005 Indians draft picks. He's featured four players so far in the last few weeks, and while he's pessimistic on the matter, I'm hopeful that Alex will manage a couple more, because I really, really enjoyed reading these mini-interviews.
2. Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns. We've typically had the most site traffic on Mondays during football season, as clearly people just love our hard-hitting journalistic integrity, and, uh, dumb running jokes. And Ryan Pontbriand. The people can't get enough.
1. LeBron Day 2004. From the first splash of Powerade to the last ceremonial tossing of Fruity Pebbles to the wind, our first ever LeBron Day pilgrimmage will go down in history as a truly momentous occasion. This blessed holiday will surely continue for centuries to come!

Of course, we're already looking ahead to the future of the blog! Here are the top five Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times entries you can look forward to over the course of our second year:

5. Thoughts on LeBron's First Quintuple-Double. Trust me, we're going to have a lot to say on this matter.
4. Breaking News: NFL Disbands the Ravens. I'm particularly looking forward to this one, for obvious reasons.
3. A Sit-down with C.C. Sabathia: Part IX. Our intensive conversation with the Indians starting pitcher will have many highlights. C.C. will discuss his inner thoughts, his dreams for the future, and what it was like becoming the first American League pitcher to hit 5 home runs in a game.
2. Born and Raised on the Cleveland Browns: Super Bowl Edition. When the Browns become the first team in NFL history to win a championship game by more than 100 points, you can be sure we'll have lots of superb celebratory coverage right here. It's going to be great!
1. LeBron Day 2005. I'm giddy with anticipation.

Home again! I had never attended both halves of a double header until yesterday, and it turned out to be one of the best days I've ever spent at the Jake.

For some reason, Alex stayed home--I attended Game 1 with my dad. The Indians jumped out to an early lead and cruised to a 9-3 victory. Scott Elarton pitched a complete game in 115 pitches. Since I care little about Elarton's future with the Indians, then as far as I'm concerned, he can throw 150 pitches in a game. But if it had been, say, C.C. out there in the late innings with a high pitch count and a huge lead, I would have been a little upset. Just because a guy is pitching well doesn't mean you can't replace him. For one, the Indians had just called up a fresh Kaz Tadano and had made clear their intentions to send him down again between games 1 and 2 so that Jason Davis could be called up for the start. That's a free reliever right there, no strings attached, no wear on the rest of the pen, no limit to the innings he can cover for you. With an 8-0 lead going into the seventh, or a 9-1 lead going into the eighth, why not use him?

It was, of course, dollar hot dog day, which resulted in the sale of 55,000 dogs during Game 1 (to a crowd of about 27,000). This meant that the lines at all the concessions stands were ridiculously long, with the notable exception of the kiosk where they offer the more expensive, grilled hot dogs which were not included in the promotion. This was fine by me, of course, because dollar dogs or no, the grilled dogs at the Jake are the best ballpark food there is, and most definitely worth paying regular price and not having to wait in line for an hour. While I believe there were occasional hot dog delays while they scrambled to get a fresh supply at certain booths, they never ran out of dogs. More importantly, they never ran out of Bertman's!

Speaking of Bertman's, the standings for the Hot Dog Race have undergone an encouraging transformation since the last time I updated you all. With a thrilling victory in yesterday's Game 1, our hero Mustard has made up a lot of ground:

                  wins since my
           wins    last update
Ketchup      9          2
Mustard      7          4
Onion        4          0

A few readers have made some interesting points about the Hot Dog Race. One, the mustard is yellow despite appearing in front of a bottle that clearly says "Bertman's". I'd like to believe that this was a trick of the camera or something, but it seems unlikely. If there is really an imposter racing in our Hot Dog Race, I demand justice! Another reader has suggested that the races might be fixed. This is a much more serious accusation that could shake the Hot Dog Race organization down to its very roots. If the races have been occasionally fixed, that would explain how Onion has managed to win even a single race. We shall have to wait and see. If Mustard continues to rise to the top, we'll know everything is on the level. But if Ketchup keeps up its winning ways, we'll know the fix is on, perhaps arranged by some kind of Pittsburgh Condiment Mafia.

But I digress. After Game 1, I ran home (not literally) for a quick shower and to change from my #24 Sizemore jersey to my #63 Betancourt jersey. Then it was back to the ballpark, this time with my mom and stepdad. Once again, the Indians ran away with it early, but the later innings were still chock full of exciting moments. In fact, this was among the most exciting baseball games I've attended. Coco's RBI quadruple was obviously the highlight, followed closely by Travis' 1,872-foot blast as the next batter, his third home run of the day.

After the game, we stayed for the fireworks, and then, as we exited, walking along the open concourse on the south side of the upper deck, we were able to see no fewer than 20 separate fireworks displays from all over Northern Ohio, including the City of Cleveland's display down by the Flats. It was pretty breathtaking, seeing the entire horizon lighting up in literally (yes, literally) every direction.

So. With the offense now kicking the snot out of folks, the Indians have continued their rise up the standings. This includes Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Standings, in which they lead the division by a comfortable margin (.589 to the White Sox' .550--the Twins have since fallen to third). According to third-order winning percentage, the Indians have played the best baseball in the American League over the first half of the season. Not surprisingly, then, the Indians are now given a really good chance of making the playoffs in BP's Playoff Odds Report--56%, with a 34% chance of winning the wild card and a 22% chance of winning the division. Only the three current division leaders are given a batter chance of making the postseason. No team is given a better chance of winning the wild card.

Meanwhile, I will be back at the ballpark again tonight for a third time in two days. This time Alex will be along as well, and--get this--we're going to spend an inning in the Indians radio booth with Tom Hamilton and the crew! Hopefully, tomorrow we'll be able to post some pictures from the experience and a little recap. So stay tuned!

For the fourth (and possibly last, seeing as most draft picks have signed and are currently toiling away in the Mahoning Valley or Burlington and are too busy for answering my asinine questions) installment of questions and answers with a 2005 Indians draft pick, we have Brent Thomas, centerfielder from Texas Tech University. Brent comes from Seattle, Washington and last season his hometown Mariners drafted him in the 15th round out of Bellevue Community College in Bellevue, Washington. This time around, the Tribe took Thomas in the 32nd round.

This past season, Brent was set back by a hamstring injury, which may have cost him a starting spot on the Red Raiders. Nevertheless, he managed to hit .330/.386/.615, clearly showing great power with an isolated slugging of .285, even in a slight pitchers' park. The way I know Brent is a true gamer, is that he somehow managed to score 27 runs while being on base 39 times, scoring at nearly a 70% clip. On a equally meaningless level, Brent was born on February 12th, sharing a birthday with such greats like Abraham Lincoln, Charles Darwin, Bill Russell, and Arsenio Hall.

Alex Rubin: Why didn't you sign last year with your hometown Mariners? Was the opportunity to play at "home" extra tempting? What are the chances of you signing with the Indians this time around?

Brent Thomas: I didn't sign with the Mariners because for one, I feel I didn't have the information I needed to make a strong decision about playing. The other reason was I didn't feel the offer was enough for the round I went in. Yeah, the opportunity to play at home was tempting, but something inside of me told me not to take it. I also had advisors who helped very well with the information they gave me to make my decision. According to the scout who signed me, he wants to sign me later in the summer. So I'm playing in the Northwoods League until then. That is my understanding.

AR: How did you injure your hamstring this past season? How did it affect you during the season? And, do you think the injury affected your draft position?

BT: I injured my hamstring some time ago and for some odd reason, it keeps coming back to nag me. I think it hates me. But I have been working it out in the weight room and I haven't had any problems with it this summer. I believe it started some time at Bellevue. I don't remember when exactly. I don't think the injury affected my draft position, but I could be wrong. The draft is very confusing, with how certain players get drafted, some make sense and some don't.

AR: What do you consider your strengths?

BT: I think my strengths as a player are my speed on the bases and my bat-speed. I need to work on my defense a little more, but I'm getting better as the summer goes on.

AR: Where does the seeming increase in your power from 2004 at Bellevue (you had a slugging percentage of .544) to 2005 at Texas Tech, where you slugged .615, come from? Is this caused by differences between Courter Field and Dan Law Field?

BT: Spending three years at a JuCo with a wood bat, you learn how to swing the right way. Because with a wood bat you don't have as big a sweet spot as you do with a metal bat. The swing has to be shorter and more compact. When I came to Tech, it took a little while to get used to the metal because for one, it's a lighter bat and my bat-speed increased. So with all of that, I have to learn to shorten up with that swing as well, because if you swing too hard the swing gets long and slow.

I didn't play a lot over the summer because I was still growing. I took the summer off because my knees were doing something weird and I couldn't walk right or run at all. But as the season went on at Tech, I started off slow because of the long break I had over the summer and during Christmas. There would be times when I would do really well, then, for some reason, I wouldn't be playing the next day. But that's a whole other story. With my bat-speed I was able to generate some pretty good pop with that metal bat and I hit some balls that I said "wow" to.

AR: If you make the major leagues, what will be your at-bat music?

BT: If I make the majors, my music will be a song by the group Dead Prez called "Hip Hop". You might have heard it before on Dave Chapelle's show when he comes out. I think it's one of the tightest beats ever made.