You may have noticed that the Cavs followed up their 9-2 start with a 2-7 second act, including, most recently, a loss to the 4-16 Atlanta Hawks. Let the record show that it is not time to panic yet; nonetheless, my eyebrows have been raised.

So what's the problem? I don't think it's the offense in any way, shape or form, as the Cavs are still 2nd in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 113.4 points per 100 possessions. They trail only the Detroit Pistons (114.0) and have a nice little lead over the third-best offense, the Dallas Mavericks (111.9). LeBron James, you could safely argue, has been the third-best offensive player in the NBA so far, with a PER of 28.7 (trailing only Elton Brand and Allen Iverson). Other Cavaliers have also been at the top of their offensive game, such as Z and Drew Gooden, whose PERs of 22.1 and 20.5, respectively, would be career highs for each if they held up.

If I had just one complaint with the offense so far, it might be with Larry Hughes, whose PER of 15.1 makes him barely league average. Hughes actually started the season well, but has really struggled of late. His True Shooting Percentage of 50.2% is the team's worst among regular contributors. I attribute this to poor shot selection. It seems to me that, when Hughes isn't driving to the basket, he's taking too many long 2-pointers, which are the worst shots you can take, as they are both low-percentage and low-reward. When Hughes does drive to the basket, he has an exceptional knack for getting to the foul line, which I applaud. I only wish he would take a step back on some of his long jumpers--it would increase his scoring potential greatly. (I was actually going to compile some data from the individual shot charts on ESPN.com to illustrate Hughes' shot selection, but then I realized just how long this would take, so for now you'll have to rely on my admittedly subjective observation. I may still do something like that in the future, though.)

But I digress. As I said, the problem does not lie with the offense, which has been the second-best in the NBA. No, the problem, if there is one, must be defensive. As a team, the Cavs have the league's 23rd-best (or 8th-worst) defensive efficiency; they allow 108.3 points per 100 possessions. Not that they don't do some things well: they lead the NBA in defensive rebounding, grabbing a remarkable 75.9% of their opponents' shots. They also rank 8th in the NBA in free throws allowed per field goal allowed, meaning they do a good job of keeping opponents off the foul line. In other words, Cavaliers opponents don't get very many shots and they don't get many free throw opportunities--yet they still manage to score quite efficiently.

The obvious explanation would be that the Cavaliers allow easy shots. Sure enough, the Cavs have allowed the league's third-highest eFG% (Effective FG%; it's like TS% but without free throws), at .513. They've also allowed the NBA's highest 3-point percentage, at .412. It seems the Cavs' biggest problem is defense on the perimeter.

Now, it's really hard to pinpoint defensive performances by individual players, especially in a system like Mike Brown's where it's supposedly all about forcing bad shots (which is truly an effort by all five players on the floor), but there are a few things we can look at. Check out this chart of the Cavaliers' Opponent Production by Position:

    eFG%   PER
PG  .512  19.1
SG  .525  15.5
SF  .496  15.5
PF  .536  18.5
C   .481  13.8

Please note that the performance of opposing point guards, for example, does not correspond directly to the defensive efforts of Eric Snow and Damon Jones, and so on. Also, there are small sample size issues, as the Cavs may not yet have faced quality opposition at certain positions, etc. But it's clear from the chart that the Cavs have trouble defending point guards and power forwards. And that does not look too good for Snow, Jones, Gooden, or Donyell Marshall. Now, Gooden I'm willing to pardon to a certain extent, because he's been the team's best rebounder (he's 10th in the NBA in Rebound Rate, with 18.5) and certainly a big reason for their success in that area, and besides, he's been one of their best weapons on offense, as I've noted. Snow and Jones, however, are another story. At the very least, nothing I've seen with my admittedly subjective personal observation would contradict the suggestion that either Eric Snow or Damon Jones has trouble defending shots on the perimeter.

And it's not like either of those guys is doing anything on the offensive end that might make up for it. Jones has a PER of 13.4 and Snow has a 10.7, which ranks them 27th and 34th among NBA point guards, respectively. That's out of 39 eligible players.

Like I said, it's not yet time to panic. Even if the Cavaliers finish the season having scored 113.4 points per 100 possessions and having allowed 108.3, we would expect their record to be 50.8 wins, 31.1 losses. The Cavs have their problems right now, sure. But more than anything, they've suffered from a little bad luck. Let's all just hold our breaths a little longer.