This Sunday, two men--both Bill Belichick disciples, both former Browns defensive coordinators, both first-year NFL head coaches, both in the process of installing a new 3-4 defensive schemes, both with 3-6 records--meet in the epic "Battle of Guys with Similar Backgrounds and Circumstances"!

Yeah, that's my hook this week; just roll with it. At any rate, as always, the stats in this preview come from Football Outsiders' DVOA reports (offense, defense, special teams), while a detailed explanation of DVOA can be found here.

Browns offense vs. Dolphins defense:

           CLE offense  MIA defense
total DVOA    -3.5%        -7.9%
passing       -0.1%         3.7%
rushing       -7.9%       -19.9%

For the sixth week in a row, the Browns' rushing DVOA improves, but remains a weakness overall. Suspecting that Weighted DVOA (which tries to measure more recent performance) would paint a rosier picture of the Browns' rushing abilities, I e-mailed Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders for some extra data. The weights in Weighted DVOA aren't particularly heavy at this point in the season, but there's still a slight change: the Browns' passing offense falls to -4.3% while their rushing offense rises to -5.0%. For the second game in a row, however, they face a team with a blue-ribbon run defense (Miami's ranks 4th in DVOA; check out this informative article about their front seven), so it will most likely fall on Trent Dilfer to move the chains against the 18th-ranked Dolphins secondary. Advantage: Dolphins

Dolphins offense vs. Browns defense:

           MIA offense  CLE defense
total DVOA   -11.1%        11.2%
passing      -16.7%        16.8%
rushing       -3.9%         6.0%

Talk about an even matchup! Look at those numbers. Both the Miami offense and the Browns defense have been below average--to almost the exact same degree. If that means we're going to see an exactly average result from this side of the contest, then I guess the Dolphins will end up with about 21 points. What could change that, of course, is the likelihood that backup QB Sage Rosenfels will start, due to a Gus Frerotte "right finger" injury. Since Rosenfels has only attempted 49 passes so far in his 5-year career, he is obviously an unknown quantity. One matchup that I will watch with interest will be that of tight end Randy McMichael vs. Chris Crocker, Andra Davis and company. McMichael has been thrown to 59 times, 5th-most out of all tight ends in the NFL, but ranks a paltry 29th among tight ends in both DVOA (-14.5%) and DPAR (-0.4). Meanwhile, the Browns remain second-best in the league at defending passes thrown to tight ends (DVOA of -32.4%). Therefore, if the Dolphins continue to try to feature McMichael in their passing game, it could be a blessing for the Browns. Slight advantage: Browns

Special teams matchups:

                        Browns  Dolphins
total DVOA               1.6%     5.2%
FG kicking               1.9      1.0
CLE kickoff vs. MIA KR   0.2     -1.1
CLE KR vs. MIA kickoff   3.6      7.1
CLE punt vs. MIA PR     -0.3     -6.5
CLE PR vs. MIA punt     -0.4     15.7

The Dolphins are ranked 5th in special teams DVOA thanks to an obvious strength, their league-leading 15.7 DPAR on punts. This is partly the doing of punter Donnie Jones, who ranks 9th in the NFL in average distance, and partly the doing of the coverage team, which ranks 5th in what I'll just call "differential" (average distance minus net average; ie: the distance between where it lands and where the other team starts their drive). The Dolphins lead the NFL with a net average of 40.9 yards per punt. They're also quite good at preventing returns on kickoffs, while they're not so hot at returning punts and kicks themselves. For that reason, I wouldn't expect a big day for returns on either side. This battle should be about field position only. Advantage: Dolphins

One more thing that could affect this Sunday's game, considering the opponent, is the weather. As of Friday morning, Mistake by the Lake's own Doppler 6000000 is predicting game-time temperatures of about 47°F--higher than previously expected--with a 10% chance of precipitation. Now, that doesn't bode too well for our hopes of a freezing lake effect snowstorm (c'mon, it's the Dolphins!), but even if the weather does turn nasty, consider this: each of these head coaches, I suspect, believes his strength to be a power running game. A blanket of snow would only induce them to rely even more on the run. For the Dolphins, this could be a good thing, since their running game really is their strength. For the Browns, though, it wouldn't be so great, since they are going up against a killer run defense, and actually have a passing attack that can keep up. So, much as I would love to see the beach-baby Dolphins greeted with a brutal Cleveland winter, I'm not going to worry too much about it this week.

I think it's fair to expect a close, somewhat low-scoring game this Sunday. The Browns have a decent chance to win if they play their cards right--they're even favored by two and a half points--but in the end, if I were a gambling man, I'd probably take the Dolphins.