I hope you have enjoyed quizzes #1 and 2. With the fast-approaching start of the LeBron season (a.k.a. The Holy Time), it's about time for a Cavs quiz, no? This one's pretty straightforward:

Can you name the Cleveland Cavaliers during the LeBron Era (2004-2010)?

Enjoy!

Quiz #1 was a resounding success, so I'm moving right along to Quiz #2. This time, I hope you're ready to have a few laughs:

Can you name the New Browns leaders in passing, rushing, receiving, and return yardage (1999-2009)?

Incidentally, I'm taking requests for other Cleveland sports-themed quizzes. In fact, the reader who supplies me with the best quiz idea will win a brand new blazer with the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times crest!

Sure, we haven't posted in like twelve years. And sure, what little we have posted this summer has been focused on re-living the past glory of the 1990s Indians. And sure, this post will also partly be about re-living the past glory of the 1990s Indians. And the problem with that is...?

I am obsessed with the trivia game website Sporcle, which has hit upon an addicting trivia game format ("Can you name all the ___?"). Recently, I decided to try my hand at designing my own Sporcle quiz, which I think you (six remaining readers... and by the way, what's wrong with you six, anyway?) may enjoy. If you like this one, I'll definitely design more Cleveland sports-related quizzes and link to them from this blog.

Can you name the Indians' Opening Day lineups during the Jacobs Field era (1994-2009)?

Enjoy! Let me know if you'd like more.

We'll get back to our "Exploring the 1995 Media Guide" series, I promise, but first, in flipping through the book, trying to decide which section to showcase next, I was inspired to bring you this non-Media Guide post. The question is simple: which of our 1990s Indians heroes are Hall of Fame-bound, and of those, which, if any, will go in as Indians?

To help me assess each player's Hall of Fame suitability, I'll rely heavily on Bill James's Hall of Fame statistics, which are available on every player page at Baseball-Reference.com. For each statistic, we'll compare the player to the "average HOFer" to see if he measures up to HOF standards.

Judge Corey will now hear your cases!

Manny Ramirez

                                Manny   avg. HOFer
Black Ink (batting)               21        27
Gray Ink (batting)               154       144
Hall of Fame Monitor (batting)   211       100
Hall of Fame Standards (batting)  65        50

Well, Manny is definitely deserving of Hall of Fame induction. The real question here is, Indian or Red Sox? In terms of pure playing time, here's how it looks:

Boston      1,083 games
Cleveland     967 games
L.A. Dodgers  124 games

A slight edge for Boston. But what about playoff games?

Cleveland      52 games
Boston         43 games
L.A. Dodgers    8 games

Okay, but it's not all about playing time. How much value did Manny rack up for each franchise?

Boston       43.5 WARP3
Cleveland    41.9 WARP3
L.A. Dodgers  9.0 WARP3

Another slight edge for Boston. Here's the thing, though. It's not that close. Manny is definitely going into the Hall as a Red Sox, mostly because the Red Sox won 2 World Series with Manny (whereas the Indians lost 2), but also because Manny's public persona ("Manny being Manny") wasn't nationally known until well after he'd signed with Boston. When the average fan pictures Manny in his head, he's picturing him in a Boston uniform, I guarantee it. Verdict: Hall of Fame, not as an Indian

Jim Thome

                                Thome   avg. HOFer
Black Ink (batting)               13        27
Gray Ink (batting)               120       144
Hall of Fame Monitor (batting)   145       100
Hall of Fame Standards (batting)  54        50

Thome's case is not as cut-and-dried as Manny's, but I think he's very likely to be inducted. For one thing, he does seem to deserve it, but for another thing, he's pretty popular, and to date, he has never been the subject of serious steroid speculation (not that I care, but HOF voters probably will).

As to the question of which cap he'd wear, I don't think there ought to be much debate. The playing time record alone should put the question to bed:

Cleveland          1,377 games
Chicago Stupid Sox   521 games
Philadelphia         361 games

Even if he plays another 3 or 4 seasons with Chicago (unlikely; he turns 39 on Thursday), he's not going be anywhere near as good as he was during his prime. For giggles, here's his WARP3 accumulated, by franchise:

Cleveland           58.2 WARP3
Chicago Stupid Sox  20.4 WARP3
Philadelphia        10.5 WARP3

And for what it's worth, Thome's top seasons, by WARP3, were 1996 (9.2), 1995 (8.0), 2002 (7.9), and 2001 (7.2), all with the Tribe. Verdict: Hall of Fame as an Indian!

Kenny Lofton

                                Kenny   avg. HOFer
Black Ink (batting)               15        27
Gray Ink (batting)                62       144
Hall of Fame Monitor (batting)    91       100
Hall of Fame Standards (batting)  42        50

Kenny's probably not going into to the Hall of Fame, much as we might wish it so. If he has a case, it hinges on his record as a base-stealer (he ranks 15th all time, and led the AL 5 times), the fact that he just barely missed out on a career .300 batting average (he finished at .299), and the fact that he was very successful without hitting for power, in an era of steroid-taking power hitters. He may get a few votes, but probably not enough, which is fine, because he probably doesn't deserve it.

Entertaining the fantasy that Lofton could be inducted, there is no question it would be as an Indian. He played 10 years for the Tribe, and no more than a single season with any other team.

Interestingly, Kenny's best years all came at the very beginning of his career: 1993 (9.1 WARP3), 1994 (8.8), and 1992 (7.9). Considering that he was already 25 years old in 1992, when he played his first full season, one wonders if an earlier call-up to the majors might have given him a better shot at the Hall. Of course, that wouldn't have worked out nearly as well for the Indians. Verdict: no Hall

Roberto Alomar

                               Robbie   avg. HOFer
Black Ink (batting)                3        27
Gray Ink (batting)                95       144
Hall of Fame Monitor (batting)   193       100
Hall of Fame Standards (batting)  55        50

It's not necessarily a slam dunk, but I think Robbie Alomar is going to Cooperstown. He was never the best player in the league, but he was almost always the best at his position, and he played on some great teams. He becomes eligible next year, so I guess we'll find out pretty soon.

Unfortunately, I don't think there's much of a case to be made for Robbie to go in as an Indian. It's true that his 3 seasons with the Tribe included the top 2 of his career (1999, with an amazing WARP3 of 10.2, and 2001, with 7.7), but he spent more time with Toronto, and won 2 World Series to boot. Here's how it looks in terms of playing time:

Toronto     703 games
Cleveland   471 games
San Diego   448 games
Baltimore   412 games
N.Y. Mets   222 games
Chicago Sox  85 games
Arizona      38 games

And here's how it looks in terms of value:

Toronto     26.7 WARP3
Cleveland   24.3 WARP3
Baltimore   16.1 WARP3
San Diego   15.1 WARP3
Arizona     -0.2 WARP3
N.Y. Mets   -0.5 WARP3
Chicago Sox -0.5 WARP3

So Alomar will likely become the first player to go into the Hall of Fame as a Blue Jay. Indians fans can take comfort in the fact that we had him at his best, just not for long enough. Verdict: Hall of Fame, not as an Indian

Omar Vizquel

                                Omar    avg. HOFer
Gray Ink (batting)                25       144
Hall of Fame Monitor (batting)   104       100
Hall of Fame Standards (batting)  34        50

I hesitate to include Omar in this post, because the discussion has been carried out too many times in too many places, and the truth is that he simply doesn't deserve to be in the Hall of Fame. On the other hand, who doesn't love Omar? The truth is that once Omar retires, he will get a lot more Hall of Fame buzz than he deserves, and he will get some consideration, but ultimately, I don't think he'll get in. It's true that he was great on defense, but he was well below average offensively (except for 1999, when, like every Indians hitter, he exploded). The argument "Ozzie Smith made it in on the strength of his amazing defense" only takes Omar so far, because not only was Ozzie Smith a little better at the plate, Smith was also demonstratively better in the field. And Smith was already a borderline case when he got inducted. Omar has a remote chance, but if he does make it in, there will be a big backlash from a lot of very smart people. I love Omar, but I don't harbor illusions about him.

Naturally, if he made it, Omar would wear an Indians cap. Heck, he'd probably wear two Indians caps. So I don't think it's worth delving into that particular comparison. Verdict: no Hall

Albert Belle

                                Belle   avg. HOFer
Black Ink (batting)               28        27
Gray Ink (batting)               137       144
Hall of Fame Monitor (batting)   133       100
Hall of Fame Standards (batting)  36        50

Albert Belle is going to get less Hall of Fame buzz than anyone in this post, but ironically, he actually does have a little bit of an argument. He was arguably the best hitter in the majors for a period of a few years. He definitely deserved the 1995 MVP Award (no, I will never let it go!) and but for Frank Thomas, he probably would have deserved the 1994 award, too. So unfortunately, while he was probably good enough, Belle's career was just too short, and, more damningly, he was a huge dick. So he'll probably never make it to Cooperstown. For what it's worth, he would definitely go in wearing a Tribe cap, but again, it's not gonna happen. Verdict: no Hall

In this, the second installment of our nostalgic journey through the 1995 Indians Media Guide, we'll be channeling our inner Gary Meadows, and counting down the 10 rockingest mustaches in the book. Between the stars, the nobodies, the coaching staff, and everyone in the middle, the '95 Indians were a squad with some quality mustaches.

If you missed Part 1, it can be found here. Also, please forgive my amateurish photography (this would have been a disaster if I'd tried to use a scanner). Now let's get to it!

10. Paul Shuey
    
    
    
    Clearly, Shuey didn't really figure out the whole mustache game until later in his career. His 1995 'stache is weirdly misshapen.
    
    
9. Dennis Martínez
   
   
   
   El Presidente always sported this solid, stately look.
   
   
8. Eddie Murray
   
   
   
   Eddie Murray wouldn't be Eddie Murray without an amazing mustache. Alas, his best mustaches came decades earlier, but even in the twilight of his career, Murray had the Carl Winslow look down pat.
   
   
7. Carlos Baerga
   
   
   
   Like Martínez's, only bigger.
   
   
6. Matt Turner
   
   
   
   Yeah, I'd never heard of him either. He pitched 12 innings for the Tribe in 1994, and was obviously invited to spring training the following year, but he never appeared in a game again. His mustache, however, was timeless—by which I mean it was stuck in 1981.
   
   
5. Luis Isaac
   
   
   
   Someday, Louie Isaac's mustache will be in the Indians Hall of Fame, if not the MLB Hall of Fame. Relievers from Assenmacher to Betancourt owe their careers to it.
   
   
4. Tony Peña
   
   
   
   I'll never forget when Tony Peña's mustache hit that home run...
   
   
3. Álvaro Espinoza
   
   
   
   The glasses really complete the look.
   
   
2. Jeff Newman
   
   
   
   In case you don't remember, Newman was the third base coach from 1992 to 1999, when he followed Mike Hargrove to Baltimore.
   
   
1. José Mesa
   
   
   
   Most fans probably remember Mesa with his monster goatee, but we in Cleveland remember him with this monster mustache that's yearning to be a goatee.

That's it for Part 2. What will the next installment bring? Stay tuned to find out!

I know what you're thinking: "What, more Mistake by the Lake content? How do these losers live their lives?" Well, what can I tell you? Truly, the amount of blogging we do has a direct, one-to-one correlation with how much we care about you, our loyal readers.

Anyway, you might have noticed that the 2009 Indians season has quietly turned into an exciting race for not-last place... or possibly an exciting race for third place! Alas, this has not proven to be the type of excitement today's Indians fan expects and appreciates. That's why I'm proud to bring you Part 1 in our new many-parted series, an historical look back at the most exciting Indians campaign of our lifetimes (the 1995 season) via the time-tested pages of my Cleveland Indians Media Guide 1995. Because wallowing in past glory is never not the solution to any of life's problems.



Basically, we're going to highlight items of interest from the pages of the book, in a completely arbitrary order, and comment on them, until we get tired of the conceit. Today we feature Page 313, a fine page entitled "Phonetic Pronunciations for 1995 Cleveland Indians." This would be the page the moronic visiting broadcasters might turn to when they have to enunciate such cryptic and befuddling words as "Thome" and "Shuey" without sounding like total idiots... well, without continuing to sound like total idiots.

The author of Page 313 might have attempted to use some kind of standardized phonetic writing system, such as IPA, but something tells me Hawk Harrelson was going to have a harder time with "oːʒej" than with "Ogea" itself, thus defeating the purpose. Instead, it seems the strategy was to pass the pronunciation-transcribing duties off to Bart Swain's seven year-old nephew. The results may not surprise you! Needless to say, by following this guide, the visiting broadcaster is going to say more names incorrectly than if he just tried to figure it out for himself. Let the nitpicking begin!

Santos Valazquez ALOMAR, Jr. (AL-a-mar)

Already we're off to a fantastic start, with the misspelling of Sandy's middle name (Velazquez). Also, I really hope some play-by-play guy actually called him "Santos."

Ruben AMARO, Jr. (A-mar-oh)

The syllable in caps is supposed to get the emphasis, right? I'm pretty sure they wanted "a-MAR-oh."

Carlos Obed BAERGA (by-AIR-ga)
David Gus "Buddy" BELL
David Michael BELL
Albert Jojoan BELLE

Obed and Jojoan are two excellent middle names.

Jeromy Neal BURNITZ (BER-nits)

Ooh, swing and a miss.

John Christopher CARTER
Mark CLARK
Dennis Bryan COOK
Timothy Roger COSTO (kah-STOE)

Oh, come on. I do not remember Tim Costo at all, but does his name really rhyme with "bestow"? I doubt it.

Carlos Lamont CRAWFORD
Einar Antonio DIAZ (DEE-az)

Gee, thanks for the clarification on "Diaz"—I guess you figured you'd wait for next year's media guide to do your part in averting a pointless, years-long "ey-nar vs. ay-nar" debate.

Steven Ross DIXON
Alan Duane EMBREE
Alvaro Alberto ESPINOZA (ES-pi-nose-ah)

No, not even close. Boy, we're really struggling with this concept of emphasis, aren't we?

Brian GILES (JYLES)

Now, honestly, how is "Jyles" clearer than "Giles"?

Jason GRIMSLEY (grims-LEE)

Nope.

Michael Dudley HARGROVE
Luis ISAAC (I-zik)

Totally necessary.

Wayne Leonard KIRBY (CUR-bee)
Jesse LEVIS

As I scan the roster, even pretending I've never heard of the players, "Levis" is one of the only names I actually would want clarified. Is it "Levis" like "leverage," or "Levis" like "leaving"?

James Howard LEWIS, Jr.
Kenneth LOFTON (LOFT-un)

Wow, all these years I've been saying "LOFT-awn".

Albert Anthony LOPEZ
Charles Fuqua MANUEL, Jr.

I'd forgotten about this—the best middle name on the team. Also, if I may try my hand at this juvenile writing system, "Manuel" could be either "MAN-yewl" or "man-you-ELL." Just sayin'.

Jose Dennis MARTINEZ
Jose MESA (MAY-sa)
Antonia MITCHELL

Elsewhere in the Media Guide, he's just "Tony," but I'm pretty sure his name's "Antonio" and not "Antonia."

Eddie Clarence MURRAY
Charles Harrison NAGY (NAG-ee)

Not to suggest that announcers weren't reading their media guides, but this obviously didn't stop everyone on the planet from saying "NAY-gee."

David Earl NELSON
Jefrey [sic] Lynn NEWMAN
Chad OGEA (OH-jay)
Herbert Edward PERRY
Eric Vaughn PLUNK
Manuel Aristides RAMIREZ

Wow, the '95 Indians were a treasure trove of great middle names, and we're talking about all the star players, too. Obviously, this is some kind of converse to the Browns Middle Name Corollary.

Victor Omar RAMIREZ
Joseph Roger ROA (ROE-a)
Paul Kenneth SHUEY (SHOO-ee)
Willie Everett SMITH
Paul Anthony SORRENTO (SORE-rent-toe)

"Sorrento" is a hard name to screw up, but the one way someone might mispronounce it; that's what you've transcribed here. Thanks!

Julian TAVAREZ (tah-VAR-ez)

Buffalo Wild Wings thanks you for not bothering to transcribe first names.

James Howard THOME (TOE-mee)
Omar Enrique VIZQUEL (viz-KELL)
Mark Eugene WILEY (WHY-lee)

Well, there you have it: Page 313 of the 1995 Media Guide. I hope this has been as educational for you as it has been for me. We've still got tons of awesome memories to re-live; next time we might be looking at 1995 ticket prices, or minor league coaching staffs, or who knows what else. It's a treasure trove, I tell ya.

A lot of factors can go into shaping a sports rivalry. There's shared history, geographical proximity, recent playoff match-ups, and so on. I suspect, though, that the biggest factor determining the strength of a rivalry is, quite simply, volume. Your biggest rivals will tend to be the teams you play most often.

It happens that some cities have "natural" rivalries with other cities, across all (or multiple) sports. Cleveland is not one of those. The Browns' biggest rivals, for example, are clearly Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Cincinnati, in that order. But neither the Pirates, Orioles, or Reds registers as much of a blip on the Indians' radar, nor does any of those cities have an NBA team.

Meanwhile, an Indians fan might tell you that their closest rival is the Yankees, but would any Yankees fan say the same? I spoke to an anonymous source in the Yankees front office, who told me, "In... di-ans? Oh, right. The Indians are far, far down on [the Yankees'] list of rivals. Fuhgeddaboudit! I love New York!" The truth is, the Indians don't have any real classic rivalries, but if we could measure it objectively, their closest rivals would all be division foes. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, have had a recent mini-rivalry with the Celtics—something akin to the Browns' mini-rivalry with the Broncos in the 80s—but once again, their closest rivals come from within the division.

This got me to wondering—not because there is any inherent value or purpose in knowing, but just because I was curious—what is Cleveland's most "natural" rival, even in a watered-down field? More simply: what city do we face most often?

Of course, it wouldn't be fair to simply count up games played. For one thing, the Browns play the Bengals twice a year, whereas the Indians play the Reds six times a year. Surely, the Browns-Bengals match-ups should count for more than the Indians-Reds ones. For another thing, there are often imbalances in the schedule, so that in recent years, the Indians may have played more games against the Mariners (say) than the Rangers, but that does nothing to help us predict how often they'll meet in an upcoming, or given, year.

To illustrate how I'll calculate "match-up volume" (or "rivalry suitability," if you prefer), let's consider an example... say, Boston. Though the number of regular season Indians-Red Sox games will vary from year to year, the Indians average about 7.4 regular season match-ups with each AL East team, in a given season. That means that the Red Sox occupy about 4.57% of the Indians' 162-game schedule. Meanwhile, in a given NBA season, the Cavs will have 36 games to spread among the 10 non-division Eastern Conference teams—meaning they'll play the Celtics 3.6 times per year. Thus, the Celtics occupy 4.39% of the Cavaliers' regular season focus. Finally, in a given NFL season, the Browns will have 6 games to dole out to the 12 non-division AFC teams—meaning they'll face the Patriots 0.5 times per season. That means that the Patriots take up about 3.13% of the Browns' regular season schedule. To summarize:

Red Sox:  4.57% of Indians'  reg. season
Celtics:  4.39% of Cavs'      "     "
Patriots: 3.13% of Browns'    "     "
----------------------------------------
average:  4.03% of Cleveland  "     "

By this method, Boston gets a regular season rating of 4.03%, which I'll be able to compare to ratings for other cities (stay tuned).

Of course, the regular season is only part of the equation. We can also calculate the average number of playoff meetings between any two teams in a given year. Naturally, our methodology will consider all teams to be equally talented, so that the numbers will apply equally to the 2059 season (when—who knows—the Red Sox may suck) as to 2009.

This part of the calculation is considerably trickier, so I won't waste your time walking you through it. You'll have to trust me when I say that, in a given year, we can expect to see about 0.0391 playoff series between the Indians and Red Sox, 0.0667 playoff series between the Cavs and Celtics, and 0.0432 playoff games between the Browns and Patriots. We'll consider any playoff match-up, whether 7-game series or single game, to be equally monumental. Once again, in table form:

Red Sox:  0.0391 playoff match-ups vs Indians
Celtics:  0.0667    "        "     vs Cavs
Patriots: 0.0432    "        "     vs Browns
-----------------------------------------------
sum:      0.1489    "        "     vs Cleveland

By this method, Boston gets a playoff total of 0.1489, which, as before, I'll use to compare it to other cities.

Okay, now we rank... but first, one caveat. I had to make some executive decisions about how to define cities. For example, I've got one city, "All NY/NJ Area," which includes the Yankees, Mets, Knicks, Nets, Jets, and Giants. That's a lot of teams, which means a lot of match-ups. Don't be surprised to find this Frankenstein monster of a city atop the rankings—and take it with a grain of salt. Meanwhile, I've got another city, "New York," which removes the Nets from that mix, and a third city, "New Jersey," which reinstates the Nets, but removes the Yankees, Mets, and Knicks. I have similar categories such as "San Francisco," "Oakland," and "All Bay Area," not to mention ones like "Milwaukee," "Green Bay," and "All Wisconsin." I just wanted to cover my bases. And I realize it's not perfect. What are ya gonna do?

First let's look at the top regular season ratings:

                  Indians    Cavs  Browns    avg.
1. All NY/NJ Area   5.06%   8.78%   4.69%   6.18%
2. Chicago         11.60%   4.88%   1.56%   6.02%
3. Detroit         11.11%   4.88%   1.56%   5.85%
4. Baltimore        4.57%   0.00%  12.50%   5.69%
5. Cincinnati       3.70%   0.00%  12.50%   5.40%
6. Minneapolis     11.11%   2.44%   1.56%   5.04%
7. Kansas City     11.11%   0.00%   3.13%   4.75%
8. New York         5.06%   4.39%   4.69%   4.71%
9. All Bay Area     5.90%   2.44%   4.69%   4.34%
10. Pittsburgh      0.49%   0.00%  12.50%   4.33%

And now, the top playoff totals:

                  Indians    Cavs  Browns     sum
1. All NY/NJ Area  0.0435  0.1333  0.0471  0.2240
2. New York        0.0435  0.0667  0.0471  0.1573
3. Boston          0.0391  0.0667  0.0432  0.1489
4. Miami           0.0045  0.0667  0.0432  0.1143
5. New Jersey        --    0.0667  0.0471  0.1137
6. Indianapolis      --    0.0667  0.0432  0.1098
7. Toronto         0.0391  0.0667    --    0.1058
8. All Bay Area    0.0488  0.0044  0.0471  0.1003
9. Oakland         0.0443  0.0044  0.0432  0.0919
10. Chicago        0.0130  0.0667  0.0039  0.0836

As expected, New York dominates both lists. But beyond that, I was a little surprised at how different the two lists are. I initially expected to find that regular season meetings correlate reasonably well to playoff meetings, but such is not the case (we'll return to this topic shortly). So while the expected geographic rivals (Chicago, Detroit, Cincinnati) dominate the regular season rankings, the second list contains some genuine surprises, such as Miami, Indianapolis, Toronto, and Oakland.

So how do we combine the regular season averages with the playoff totals, to get one super-ranking? No matter how we do it, it's going to be rather arbitrary and somewhat sloppy. For one thing, I have no idea whether regular season match-ups should be weighted as equally important, twice as important, half as important, etc., as playoff match-ups. So we may as well just weight them equally.

Using Boston as an example once more, here's how I'll combine the two numbers. Boston's regular season ranking (4.03%) ranks 11th, whereas its playoff total (0.1489) ranks 3rd. I'll average those two ranks (11 and 3) together, to get a "combined rating" of 7.0, which, as it happens, places Boston 4th on our quick 'n' dirty overall rankings. Observe:

                  reg. rk   playoff rk    avg.
1. All NY/NJ Area     1          1        1.0
2. New York           8          2        5.0
3. Chicago            2         10        6.0
4t. Boston           11          3        7.0
4t. Detroit           3         11        7.0
6. All Bay Area       9          8        8.5
7. Baltimore          4         15        9.5
8. New Jersey        15          5       10.0
9t. Miami            17          4       10.5
9t. Oakland          12          9       10.5
11. Toronto          16          7       11.5
12. Indianapolis     18          6       12.0
13. Kansas City       7         23       15.0
14t. Atlanta         21         12       16.5
14t. Los Angeles     13         20       16.5
16. Philadelphia     22         12       17.0
17t. Washington D.C. 23         12       17.5
17t. Dallas          14         21       17.5
19. All Wisconsin    20         16       18.0
20. Cincinnati        5         33       19.0
21. Minneapolis       6         35       20.5
22. Pittsburgh       10         33       21.5
23t. Charlotte       28         17       22.5
23t. Seattle         19         26       22.5
25. Milwaukee        30         17       23.5
26. San Francisco    27         21       24.0
27. Denver           25         24       24.5
28t. Orlando         32         19       25.5
28t. Houston         26         25       25.5
30t. All Tennessee   29         27       28.0
30t. Tampa Bay       24         32       28.0
32. San Diego        34         27       30.5
33. Buffalo          35         29       32.0
34. Jacksonville     36         29       32.5
35. Nashville        37         29       33.0
36. Phoenix          31         36       33.5
37. New Orleans      33         37       35.0
38. Memphis          38         39       38.5
39. Oklahoma City    39         39       39.0
40. Portland         40         39       39.5
41. Sacramento       41         39       40.0
42. Salt Lake City   42         39       40.5
43t. St. Louis       44         38       41.0
43t. San Antonio     43         39       41.0
45. Green Bay        45         45       45.0

Still, even this overly complex list doesn't necessarily tell us what Cleveland's most "natural" rivals are. Sure, our teams face New York teams more than any other, but a rivalry should be reciprocal; that is, important to both sides. If I'd written a similar post about Philadelphia's natural rivals, or Atlanta's, or Washington's, or Detroit's, we'd likely get the same result: New York at the top. If Cleveland appeared anywhere near the top of New York's list, that would be a different story. But my guess is, that's not the case.

Similarly, Chicago, Boston, and the Bay Area register high on our Cleveland list, but I'm not sure how high Cleveland would rank on their respective lists. Take Chicago, for example. As far as Cleveland is concerned, Chicago is equivalent to Detroit, but with an extra MLB team (the Cubs). And since the Cubs don't matter much to the Indians, Chicago ranks only slightly ahead of Detroit. But from Chicago's perspective, the Cubs matter just as much as the White Sox, which opens Chicago up to a whole slew of National League teams that will wash Cleveland down the list quite a ways.

What, then, do I take from our big list? Well, we might be justified in focusing the majority of our attention on New York, Chicago, and Boston, but our most "natural" rival, depressingly, is probably Detroit, followed by Baltimore. Also noteworthy is the fact that Cincinnati and Pittsburgh rank so poorly. The truth is that the Browns have a strong connection to the Steelers and Bengals in the regular season, but the geographical playing field is leveled once you get into the postseason. And despite what Bud Selig might tell you, those cities aren't especially important to the Indians, let alone the Cavs.

Okay, so there are no big surprises in these data. I was just curious, is all. In compiling these rankings, however, I did gain a new appreciation for some interesting quirks of the various leagues' scheduling and playoff formats, especially in Major League Baseball. For example, MLB is really giving the shaft to certain teams with its adherence to long-standing, but arbitrary, traditions. With fewer teams in the American League, a given AL team starts every season with a better shot of making the playoffs than a given NL team. And with fewer teams in the AL West than any other division, the A's, Angels, Mariners and Rangers get to start each season with even better postseason odds. Meanwhile, the poor NL Central teams are really at a disadvantage: each NL Central team has a 1/6 shot at winning its division, plus a 1/13 shot of winning the wild card in the event it doesn't win the division. That translates to annual playoff odds of about 23%. For contrast, the AL West teams start the year with 32% playoff odds. And in case you're curious, the AL Central and East teams have odds of about 27%; the NL East and West teams start at about 26%.

The real problem here is the weird insistence on having all interleague play take place at the same time. Baseball should model its regular season on the NBA's, with interleague series sprinkled throughout the season. If they did that, they could have 15 teams in each league, and 5 teams in each division, thus making everyone's playoff odds the same. I mean, does anyone find interleague play so exotic anymore that it must be treated like some kind of festival—a season within the season? I like the variety it brings to the schedule, but I can think of no conceivable reason why the Indians couldn't play their 2010 season opener in, say, Miami. (Besides, I'd like to see a game get snowed out there.)

Something else that I found curious, though not necessarily unfair, is the rule that prohibits division foes from meeting in the ALDS or NLDS. For one thing, this made my calculations of the Indians' average number of playoff match-ups with each American League team maddeningly complex. But more interestingly, the rule has the effect of making playoff series between division rivals surprisingly rare. For all of MLB's talk about cultivating rivalries (with the creation of the unbalanced schedule and the "rigged" assignment of interleague match-ups), it's worth noting that the Indians are almost five times more likely to have a playoff series against a Boston or a Seattle than against a Minnesota or a Detroit. In fact, the odds of an Indians-Twins ALCS are almost as low as the odds of an Indians-Rockies World Series.

I could go on further about the quirks of, say, the NBA and NFL seasons, but I've already strayed too far off my original topic. Point is, Detroit sucks. I think we can all agree on that. Stay Cleveland-y, Cleveland.

Last updated: 9:20 PM

8:31 PM

Like most of you (I'm assuming), I awoke Sunday morning with an incredible headache and no memory of anything that happened during the previous 214 days. Did the U.S. go to war with Canada? Did they invent flying cars? Did Spielberg finally produce I, Ernie (the Rubin Brothers' much-hyped screenplay)? Was I published in the New York Times? Who can say?

But today, in the throes of this amnesiac terror, I was hit by a comforting thought: no matter what crazy things happened between October 28 and May 30, it's still only June now, and that means I have plenty of sweet, headache-free Indians baseball to look forward to. Yes, the Indians will set us free—I'm talking about the team that was best in the world twice in the last four seasons (according to 3rd-order winning percentage). I'm talking about the team whose 2008 season, while hugely disappointing, still featured the Majors' 6th-best record, post-All Star break. I'm talking about the team with the reigning Cy Young winner; the team with the Four Essential S's of Success (Sizemore, Slider, Shapiro, Stadium Mustard); the team that always rocks in odd-numbered years. In short, if ever it was Tribe time, it's Tribe time now.

The one problem is that we're already more than two months into the season, and it's only now that I'm finally capable of picking up an Indians box score. I have absolutely no idea how the Indians have done in their first 53 games. I mean, they could be in first place by 15 games, or they could be in first place by a mere 5 games. The range of possibilities is endless!

So here's my idea: I'm going to let you, dear reader, join me on my journey of discovery. I'm actually going to liveblog my checking the baseball standings for the first time in 2009. We've done precious little liveblogging in the history of this site, because liveblogging is asinine and pointless, but hey, I just know that this is going to make for riveting drama! Are you ready?

8:32 PM

What the WHAT?!

8:39 PM

The internet is broken or something, because apparently, the Indians are in last place. And they have the 4th-worst record in the Majors. The Indians! I checked like 12 different websites. What the heck happened?

8:42 PM

Hmm, maybe the Indians' record is not a good reflection of their performance so far. Let's check Baseball Prospectus's Adjusted Standings. Let's see... the Indians' 3rd-order winning percentage is .513, which is quite a bit higher than their actual winning percentage (.415). It ranks them 3rd in the division, and 12th in the Majors.

This could indicate that the Indians have been really unlucky (maybe), or that they've had a particularly difficult schedule so far (yeah, let's go with that). The difference between 2nd-order and 3rd-order winning percentage is essentially a strength-of-schedule adjustment, and in fact, when you go from 2nd-order to 3rd, the Indians get the biggest boost.

Still, that can't be the only reason, can it? It seems like this happens to the Indians almost every year (since 2005, anyway). I don't know how long this pattern (of underperforming their "adjusted" winning percentages) has to continue before I'll be convinced that it's symptomatic of some underlying, franchise-specific cause, but I am curious. That will have to be a topic for its own post sometime soon.

8:55 PM

Well, it looks like the offense has been solid. The Indians rank 8th in the Majors, having scored 5.21 points per 100 possessions—er, runs per game. And hey, check out Victor Martinez, who's 13th in the Majors with a VORP of 25.0. Next among Indians hitters is Shin-Soo Choo at 17.9, then Asdrubal Cabrera at 14.5, and... wait a minute? Where's Sizemore?

8:57 PM

Grady's VORP is 0.0! He's been replacement level, hitting just .223/.309/.417. That's... shocking. And, what's this? He went on the freaking disabled list not two days ago? Yikes. Maybe it's for the best.

9:00 PM

Super yikes. Sizemore's not the only one on the DL. The Indians have placed 432 players there, including Travis Hafner, Aaron Laffey, Anthony Reyes, Scott Lewis, Rafael Betancourt, Joe Smith (Joe... Smith? Whoa, for a second I thought my memories were coming back to me; it was like a glimmer of recognition; then suddenly, it was gone), and Jake Westbrook. In fact, apparently, since I started writing this stupid post, another Indian has hit the DL, that being the surprisingly on-fire Asdrubal Cabrera. Terrific, just terrific.

9:09 PM

Let's check some pitching stats now...

Well, there's your problem! The Tribe ranks just 28th (that's 3rd-worst) in run prevention, allowing 5.53 per game. So whose fault is it? Certainly not Cliff Lee, who's making a decent case that his amazing 2008 was no fluke: Lee ranks 7th in the Majors with a 2.6 SNLVAR (which is like SNVA but adjusted for quality of batters faced, and based on replacement level, not league average... you can just think of it as "he's been worth 2.6 wins" if that helps) and 6th in pitching VORP (24.4). Cliff has actually been the unluckiest pitcher in baseball, meaning he's either had no run support, been let down by his bullpen, or both.

After Lee, you've got Carl Pavano (wait, huh?) pitching surprisingly well for Carl Pavano (1.2 SNLVAR, 6.1 VORP), and not much else to cheer about. Okay, so once again, the question is, whose fault is it? Well, among starters, Fausto Carmona's been about as bad as I might be willing to imagine (-8.1 VORP), but the real problem appears to be in the bullpen, where almost no one has been above replacement level, and those that have are either injured or not getting any innings. I don't feel like running through the whole list; sufficed to say that it includes about 10 guys not named Betancourt, Herges, Aquino, or Wood—not to suggest that those four have been outstanding or anything, either.

9:20 PM

Gee, I feel better. Don't you?

Go, uh... Browns?